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At least 811 records · Page 45

Grid-Scale Ternary-Pumped Thermal Electricity Storage for Flexible Operation of Nuclear Power Generation under High Penetration of Renewable Energy Sources

In this work, the integration of a grid-scale ternary-Pumped Thermal Electricity Storage (t-PTES) with a nuclear power generation to enhance operation flexibility is assessed using physics-based models and digital real time simulation. A part of the electricity from the nuclear power generation is delivered to the grid, and the balance is used to power a heat pump that can be augmented by an auxiliary resistive load element to increase the charging rate of the thermal storage. This increases the thermal potential between hot and cold thermal stores (usually solid materials or molten salts inside large storage tanks). The thermal energy is transformed back into electricity by reversing the heat pump cycle. Different transient scenarios including startup, shutdown, and power change for grid-connected operation are simulated to determine the behavior of the hybrid nuclear-t-PTES system operating under variable loads that constitute a departure from conventional, baseload nuclear plant operation schemes. Ternary refers to the three modes operation: (i) heat pump (including heating coil), (ii) heat engine, and (iii) simultaneous operation of heat pump (including heating coil) and heat engine during changeover from pumping to generation or vice-versa. The controllability of t-PTES in the short timescales as a dynamic load is used to demonstrate operational flexibility of hybrid nuclear plants for flexible operation through advanced load management. The integration of t-PTES into nuclear power systems enhances the system flexibility and is an enabler for high penetration of renewable energy resources.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Energy balance and Alfvén Mach numbers in compressible magnetohydrodynamic turbulence with a large-scale magnetic field

Energy equipartition is a powerful theoretical tool for understanding astrophysical plasmas. It is invoked, for example, to measure magnetic fields in the interstellar medium (ISM), as evidence for small-scale turbulent dynamo action, and, in general, to estimate the energy budget of star-forming molecular clouds. Here, in this study, we motivate and explore the role of the volume-averaged root-mean-squared (rms) magnetic coupling term between the turbulent, δB , and large-scale, B 0 , fields, $\langle$(δB·B 0 ) 2 $\rangle$$_{V}^{1/2}$. By considering the second moments of the energy balance equations we show that the rms coupling term is in energy equipartition with the volume-averaged turbulent kinetic energy for turbulence with a sub-Alfvénic large-scale field. Under the assumption of exact energy equipartition between these terms, we derive relations for the magnetic and coupling term fluctuations, which provide excellent, parameter-free agreement with time-averaged data from 280 numerical simulations of compressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence. Furthermore, we explore the relation between the turbulent mean field and total Alfvén Mach numbers, and demonstrate that sub-Alfvénic turbulence can only be developed through a strong, large-scale magnetic field, which supports an extremely super-Alfvénic turbulent magnetic field. This means that the magnetic field fluctuations are significantly subdominant to the velocity fluctuations in the sub-Alfvénic large-scale field regime. Throughout our study, we broadly discuss the implications for observations of magnetic fields and understanding the dynamics in the magnetized ISM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Soil-related developments of the Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 terrestrial ecosystem model

Terrestrial biogeochemical models are essential tools to quantify climate–carbon cycle feedback and plant–soil relations from local to global scale. In this study, a theoretical basis is provided for the latest version of the Biome-BGCMuSo biogeochemical model (version 6.2). Biome-BGCMuSo is a branch of the original Biome-BGC model with a large number of developments and structural changes. Earlier model versions performed poorly in terms of soil water content (SWC) dynamics in different environments. Moreover, lack of detailed nitrogen cycle representation was a major limitation of the model. Since problems associated with these internal drivers might influence the final results and parameter estimation, additional structural improvements were necessary. In this paper the improved soil hydrology as well as the soil carbon and nitrogen cycle calculation methods are described in detail. Capabilities of the Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 model are demonstrated via case studies focusing on soil hydrology, soil nitrogen cycle, and soil organic carbon content estimation. Soil-hydrology-related results are compared to observation data from an experimental lysimeter station. The results indicate improved performance for Biome-BGCMuSo v6.2 compared to v4.0 (explained variance increased from 0.121 to 0.8 for SWC and from 0.084 to 0.46 for soil evaporation; bias changed from -0.047 to -0.007 m 3 m -3 for SWC and from -0.68 to -0.2 mm d -1 for soil evaporation). Simulations related to nitrogen balance and soil CO 2 efflux were evaluated based on observations made in a long-term field experiment under crop rotation. The results indicated that the model is able to provide realistic nitrate content estimation for the topsoil. Soil nitrous oxide (N 2 O) efflux and soil respiration simulations were also realistic, with overall correspondence with the observations (for the N 2 O efflux simulation bias was between -0.13 and -0.1 mgNm -2 d -1 , and normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) was 32.4 %–37.6 %; for CO 2 efflux simulations bias was 0.04–0.17 gCm -2 d -1 , while NRMSE was 34.1 %–40.1 %). Sensitivity analysis and optimization of the decomposition scheme are presented to support practical application of the model. The improved version of Biome-BGCMuSo has the ability to provide more realistic soil hydrology representation as well as nitrification and denitrification process estimation, which represents a major milestone.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Large Ensemble Diagnostic Evaluation of Hydrologic Parameter Uncertainty in the Community Land Model Version 5 (CLM5)

Abstract Land surface models such as the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) seek to enhance understanding of terrestrial hydrology and aid in the evaluation of anthropogenic and climate change impacts. However, the effects of parametric uncertainty on CLM5 hydrologic predictions across regions, timescales, and flow regimes have yet to be explored in detail. The common use of the default hydrologic model parameters in CLM5 risks generating streamflow predictions that may lead to incorrect inferences for important dynamics and/or extremes. In this study, we benchmark CLM5 streamflow predictions relative to the commonly employed default hydrologic parameters for 464 headwater basins over the conterminous United States (CONUS). We evaluate baseline CLM5 default parameter performance relative to a large (1,307) Latin Hypercube Sampling‐based diagnostic comparison of streamflow prediction skill using over 20 error measures. We provide a global sensitivity analysis that clarifies the significant spatial variations in parametric controls for CLM5 streamflow predictions across regions, temporal scales, and error metrics of interest. The baseline CLM5 shows relatively moderate to poor streamflow prediction skill in several CONUS regions, especially the arid Southwest and Central U.S. Hydrologic parameter uncertainty strongly affects CLM5 streamflow predictions, but its impacts vary in complex ways across U.S. regions, timescales, and flow regimes. Overall, CLM5's surface runoff and soil water parameters have the largest effects on simulated high flows, while canopy water and evaporation parameters have the most significant effects on the water balance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Numerical Modeling Framework for Flocculation and Cohesive Sediment Transport in the Wave Bottom Boundary Layer

Flocculation, a critical process in coastal and estuarine systems, plays a significant role in sediment transport, nutrient cycling, and ecological health. This study develops a cohesive sediment transport modeling framework tailored to the wave bottom boundary layer under dilute and equilibrium conditions, explicitly incorporating flocculation effects via a Population Balance Equation (PBE). Using Direct Numerical Simulation, six baseline cases, each with a distinct sediment concentration profile resulting from a constant settling velocity and critical erosion shear stress, are generated to drive the PBE flocculation model for given floc yield strength and stickiness. Results reveal that flocculation significantly influences sediment concentration profiles promoting three distinct stages, well‐mixed, transition to lutocline, and well‐developed lutocline. At low concentrations with well‐mixed profiles, cohesive floc properties are less significant, and turbulence is a main flocculation driver. In contrast, as concentration increases, cohesive floc properties become crucial, facilitating lutocline formation. Here, the analysis also highlights limitations of depth‐averaged settling velocity as a parameterization. It is suitable for well‐mixed and transitional profiles but fails in well‐developed lutoclines, where empirical formulations that explicitly incorporate turbulent shear rate and sediment concentration better capture variability. This study underscores the necessity of incorporating flocculation effects into sediment transport models to enhance predictions of sediment dynamics in wave bottom boundary layers.

Penaloza‐Giraldo, Jorge A. [Oak Ridge National Lab↗

Application of FARM to an IES scenario within the FORCE ecosystem

The FARM (Feasible Actuator Range Modifier) software module is a component of the RAVEN-based FORCE framework for analysis of Integrated Energy Systems (IES). FARM supports the HERON software module in the evaluation of the optimal dispatch by evaluating feasible set-points for the different IES unit components. Set-points are required to satisfy limits on both production variables (i.e., the variables to be optimized such as the electrical power, the hydrogen production rate, etc.) and process variables tied to the service life of equipment (e.g., steam flowrate, vessel pressure, turbine firing temperature, etc.). This problem is addressed by adopting a two-stage approach. First, the HERON power dispatcher determines set-points that meet the constraints on the former variables (e.g., power levels and power ramp rate limits). These constraints are called explicit constraints. Then, FARM adjusts these set-points to ensure the respect of the limits on the latter variables given the knowledge of the system physics acquired through machine learning algorithms. These constraints are called implicit constraints. From this standpoint, FARM constitutes a bridge between the HERON power dispatcher that adopts a simplified description of the IES unit (low-resolution physics) and the HYBRID high-fidelity models (high-resolution physics). The original version of the FARM software module (FARM-Alpha) was released by Argonne National Laboratory in January 2021. In the latest version of the code released in July 2022 (FARM-Delta), the Reference Governor (RG) algorithm was upgraded to a Multi-Input Multi-Output version from its original Single-Input Single-Output form. The RG algorithm acts to enforce constraints. With this improvement an IES unit is now treated as a single dynamic system from the standpoint of control. The crosstalk among components in an IES unit is now fully considered thereby ensuring a true optimization is obtained for those units that have multiple set-points. In this report, the capabilities of FARM-Delta operating within the FORCE ecosystem are demonstrated for an IES test case. The specific configuration of IES unit for this case was selected by the IES team with consultation from the Advanced Reactor IES Expert Group. A full TEA analysis that invoked HERON, HYBRID, FARM, and RAVEN was performed and serves to demonstrate how the latest modification to FARM algorithms (i.e., state variable selection, state-space matrices derivation, set-point verification) can shape setpoints that might otherwise compromise the health of equipment through accelerated wear and tear. In this specific test case, it was demonstrated that these algorithms ensure a more efficient utilization of steam resources to be shared by two different subsystems, namely Balance of Plant (BOP) and High-Temperature Steam Electrolysis (HTSE). Finally, some code improvements that can further enhance the user-friendliness are suggested.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A neural-network-enhanced parameter-varying framework for multi-objective model predictive control applied to buildings

Management of the electrical grid is becoming more complex due to the increased penetration of alternative energy generation technologies and a broadening diversity of electric loads. This complexity creates challenges in balancing demand and generation that can increase the potential for grid instabilities. One effective way to address this issue is to leverage previously unexploited demand flexibility through advanced control strategies. In this work, we propose an advanced control method, called adaptive neural parameter-varying model predictive control (ANPV-MPC), to control the temperature and energy consumption of a building via its Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning system. ANPV-MPC combines key ideas in parameter-varying control, adaptive control, and online learning strategies to bridge the gap between computationally efficient linear model predictive control and more accurate nonlinear model predictive control. The novelty in ANPV-MPC is the use of a physics-inspired Bayesian neural network to estimate the coefficients of the parameter-varying linear control model. The Bayesian neural network additionally provides uncertainty estimates, triggering online training to capture evolving building system conditions. We show that ANPV-MPC can approximate the building system dynamics with a 28.39% higher accuracy than traditional linear model predictive control, resulting in 36.23% better control performance without increasing complexity of the optimal control problem. ANPV-MPC also adapts in real time to previously unseen conditions using online learning, further improving its performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Grain Boundary Effects on Radiation Damage and Tritium Diffusion in Li–Al–O Ceramics from Molecular Dynamics and Experiments

Understanding irradiation damage and tritium transport in LiAlO2 ceramics is essential for their deployment in tritium-producing burnable absorber rods (TPBARs). Grain boundaries (GBs) play an important role in governing radiation response and tritium transport in LiAlO2 and its secondary phase LiAl5O8. Using molecular dynamics simulations, we investigated defect evolution and tritium diffusion during displacement cascades in single-crystal and bicrystal LiAlO2 and LiAl5O8 at 600 K. The results reveal that GBs suppress the damage in the LiAlO2 bicrystals as compared to single crystals, via interstitial emission. The effect is more pronounced for Li defects, than for Al and O. In LiAl5O8 the damage reduction due to introduction of GB is less pronounced overall. Tritium diffusion coefficients at GBs are higher by factors of 2–10 relative to diffusion inside grain bulk. The effect is particularly pronounced in LiAlO2, where S5, S17, and S25 GBs promote rapid tritium transport, whereas LiAl5O8 exhibits slower diffusion due to reduced free volume at its GBs. These findings evince a trade-off that while GBs mitigate radiation damage by absorbing interstitials, they simultaneously provide fast pathways for tritium migration which is not desirable for TPBAR application. The mechanistic insights gained here establish a foundation for microstructural design strategies to balance radiation tolerance and tritium retention in ceramic breeder materials.

Roy, Ankit↗

Evaluating SWAT + model uncertainties for human and natural outcomes: Application in a Great Lakes agricultural watershed

Nutrient exports from agricultural lands in the Great Lakes Region pose significant threats to water quality and ecological health through eutrophication, hypoxia, and harmful algal blooms. Climate change and agricultural adaptation practices complicate future nutrient loading due to intensified hydrologic cycles and land use decisions. Our research focuses on evaluating the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) plus model parametric uncertainties for human and natural outcomes across different scales. These factors are integral to ensuring a balance between productive agricultural practices and maintaining the health of watershed hydrology. However, uncertainties in modeling such complex interactions pose significant challenges, limiting our ability to precisely determine critical factors that influence crop yield and soil moisture. Our analysis employs Sobol global sensitivity analysis to evaluate first-order, second order, and total-order indices for SWAT crop growth parameter, ensuring comprehensive assessment of individual and interactive effects on model outputs. The objective is to identify the parameters that significantly affect model outputs for crop yield and soil moisture and improve our understanding of their interactions at the basin and hydrological response unit (HRU) scale. Our case study, the Portage River Watershed, which drains into Lake Erie, is chosen to better capture finer scale interactions crucial for predicting nutrient loading under future climate scenarios. This foundational work is aimed at setting the stage for the future development of an agent-based model (ABM). The ABM model would incorporate SWAT outputs to dynamically simulate decision-making processes.

Bunyon, Enock↗

GraphTango: A Hybrid Representation Format for Efficient Streaming Graph Updates and Analysis

Abstract Streaming graph processing performs batched updates and analytics on a time-evolving graph. The underlying representation format of the graph largely determines the throughputs of these updates and analytics phases. Existing representation formats usually employ variations of hash tables or adjacency lists. However, a recent study showed that the adjacency-list-based approaches perform poorly on heavy-tailed graphs, and the hash table-based approaches suffer on short-tailed graphs. We propose GraphTango, a hybrid representation format that provides excellent update and analytics throughput regardless of the graph’s degree distribution. GraphTango dynamically switches among three different formats based on a vertex’s degree: (i) Low-degree vertices store the edges directly with the neighborhood metadata, confining accesses to a single cache line, (2) Medium-degree vertices use adjacency lists, and (3) High-degree vertices use hash tables as well as adjacency lists. In this case, the adjacency list provides fast traversal during the analytics phase, while the hash table provides constant-time lookups during the update phase. We further optimized the performance by designing an open-addressing-based hash table that fully utilizes every fetched cache line. In addition, we developed a thread-local lock-free memory pool that allows fast growing/shrinking of the adjacency lists and hash tables in a multi-threaded environment. We evaluated GraphTango with the help of the SAGA-Bench framework and compared it with four other representation formats: Stinger, Degree-aware Robin Hood Hashing, and two adjacency list-based formats with different workload balancing scheme. On average, GraphTango provides 4.5x higher insertion throughput, 3.2x higher deletion throughput, and 1.1x higher analytics throughput over the next best format. Furthermore, we integrated GraphTango with the state-of-the-art graph processing frameworks DZiG and RisGraph. Compared to the vanilla DZiG and vanilla RisGraph , [ GraphTango + DZiG ] and [ GraphTango + RisGraph ] reduces the average batch processing time by 2.3x and 1.5x, respectively.

Ahmed, Alif↗

Microscopic Mechanisms of Glasslike Lattice Thermal Transport in Cubic Cu 12 Sb 4 S 13 Tetrahedrites

Materials based on cubic tetrahedrites (Cu 12 Sb 4 S 13 ) are useful thermoelectrics with unusual thermal and electrical transport properties, such as very low and nearly temperature-independent lattice thermal conductivity (κ L ). We explain the microscopic origin of the glasslike κ L in Cu 12 Sb 4 S 13 by explicitly treating anharmonicity up to quartic terms for both phonon energies and phonon scattering rates. We show that the strongly unstable phonon modes associated with trigonally coordinated Cu atoms are anharmonically stabilized above approximately 100 K and continue hardening with increasing temperature in accord with experimental data. This temperature-induced hardening effect reduces scattering of heat carrying acoustic modes by reducing the available phase space for three-phonon processes, thereby balancing the conventional ∝ T increase in scattering due to phonon population and yielding nearly temperature independent κ L . Furthermore, we find that very strong phonon broadening leads to a qualitative breakdown of the conventional phonon-gas model and modify the dominant heat transport mechanism from the particlelike phonon wave packet propagation to incoherent contributions described by the off-diagonal terms in the heat-flux operator, which are typically prevailing in glasses and disordered crystals. Furthermore, our work paves the way to a deeper understanding of glasslike thermal conductivity in complex crystals with strong anharmonicity.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Extended Low Load Boiler Operation to Improve Performance and Economics of an Existing Coal Fired Power Plant (Final Report)

The overall goal is to improve the performance and economics of existing coal fired power plants by extending low load boiler operation to lower loads than is currently achievable. The objective of this program is to develop and validate sensor hardware and analytical algorithms to lower plant operating expenses (OPEX) for the currently operating pulverized coal utility boiler fleet. Coal fired utility boilers are increasingly under grid dispatch pressure. In some cases, the coal fired cost of generation is noncompetitive with respect to natural gas generation and subsidized renewable sources. To remain profitable and remain fully compliant with existing environmental regulations, the installed coal fired fleet must find technologies which allow it to move into a more flexible cyclic load dispatch model. Today the installed coal fired utility fleet must be cost of generation competitive, fully emissions compliant, and responsive to the variability inherent in renewable energy generation sources. In the Phase I of the project, GE Steam Power, Inc. (GE) performed modeling of different operating scenarios for low load operation using an existing full plant dynamic model developed for a 660MW steam power plant. Sensors and analytic algorithms to enable a stable and steady coal supply for low load pulverizer operation were identified and tested at the Pulverizer Development Facility (PDF) at GE’s Clean Energy Center in Bloomfield, Connecticut. Sensors and analytic algorithms to enable stable combustion for low load operation were identified and tested at the 15 MWth Industrial Scale Burner facility (ISBF) at GE’s Clean Energy Center. A concept was developed to test the sensors and control algorithms, down selected after testing, at a full-scale coal fired power plant. A budget estimate was then developed, and the concept was implemented at an existing utility power plant. The specific objectives of the experimental work were to: • Identify and select sensors and analytic algorithms for monitoring coal pulverizer operation at lower loads to provide stable operation and appropriate coal fineness at lower coal throughput; Identify and select sensors and analytic algorithms for a Boiler Flame Stability Monitor to better balance air and fuel at each burner. This enables a reduction in a coal boiler’s safe low load power level while maintaining stable flame characteristics; Develop a concept in Phase I for low load operation of a full-scale power plant and develop a budget estimate for testing and execute the test plan at an existing plant in Phase II; Validate the capability of the extended low load boiler system to extend the minimum load operating point in a safe and reliable manner on an existing full-scale utility boiler. At the completion of this experimental study, GE has developed a set of sensors and analytic algorithms, down selected after testing, that have the potential to enable safe low load operation of a utility boiler. GE has also identified a host site for testing these identified sensors and analytic algorithms. GE has generated a full set of deliverables that provide sufficient information to proceed with the next step of testing at a host site. This includes a potential host site and budget estimate for concept testing at host site. In the Phase II of the project, a series of field tests were completed to validate the extended low load boiler operation, which consisted of detailed engineering, installation, commissioning, and testing the additional sensors and analytics for the coal-fired combustion system on an existing full-scale utility boiler. The optimization work has been supported by the host plant and endorsed by their engineering and operation staff.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Model‐Based Interpretation of Solute Exports and Carbon Partitioning During Shale Weathering in a Mountainous Hillslope

The weathering of sedimentary rocks in high-elevation catchments influences freshwater quality and the global carbon cycle. While individual biogeochemical mechanisms involved in this process are relatively well understood, quantifying their contributions to solute export and carbon fluxes under natural, transient conditions remains challenging. Here, we implement a numerical multidimensional and multiphase model to simulate coupled hydrological and biogeochemical processes in a shale-underlain, snow-dominated hillslope in the Rocky Mountains, Colorado. The model captures the dynamic interplay between soil respiration, mineral weathering, and climate-driven hydrological forcing, reproducing observed soil CO 2 dynamics, groundwater chemistry, and subsurface flow. Our results reveal that seasonal snowmelt enhances carbonate weathering by promoting the infiltration of CO 2 -rich water to depth, while pyrite oxidation is primarily sensitive to low water saturation that facilitates O 2 diffusion through the regolith. Topography modulates the spatial distribution of shale weathering, as steeper slopes enhance lateral drainage, favoring the delivery of reactants to greater depths. While shale weathering at our site acts as a transient carbon sink, with silicates and carbonates buffering acidity and promoting atmospheric CO 2 consumption (1% of soil-derived CO 2 ), the exported dissolved inorganic carbon is predominantly geogenic (∼73%). Consequently, when accounting for long-term marine carbonate precipitation. The current weathering regime represents a net source of carbon to the atmosphere. The oxidation of pyrite and petrogenic organic carbon together release approximately 0.9 mol·m −2 ·yr −1 of CO 2 . Our findings highlight the role of topography, hydroclimate, and the coupling between acid-base reactions in shaping the carbon balance and the solute exports in mountainous critical zones.

carbon cycling↗

Unraveling the effects of management and climate on carbon fluxes of U.S. croplands using the USDA Long-Term Agroecosystem (LTAR) network

Understanding the carbon fluxes and dynamics from a broad range of agricultural systems has the potential to improve our ability to increase carbon sequestration while maintaining crop yields. Short-term, single-location studies have limited applicability, but long-term data from a network of many locations can provide a broader understanding across gradients of climate and management choices. Here we examine eddy covariance measured carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes from cropland sites across the United States Department of Agriculture's Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) network. The dataset was collected between 2001 and 2020, spanning 13 sites for a total of 182 site-years. Average seasonal patterns of net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE), gross primary productivity (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (R eco ) were determined, and subsequent regression analysis on these “flux climatologies” was used to identify relationships to mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), cropping systems, and management practices. At rainfed sites, carbon fluxes were better correlated with MAP (r2 ≤ 0.5) than MAT (r2 ≤ 0.22). Net carbon balance was different among cropping systems (p < 0.001), with the greatest net carbon uptake occurring in sugarcane (Saccharum spp. hybrids) and the least in soybean (Glycine max) fields. Crop type had a greater effect on carbon balance than irrigation management at a Nebraska site. Across cropping systems, grain crops often had higher GPP and were more likely to have net uptake when compared to legume crops. This multi-site analysis highlights the potential of the LTAR network to further carbon flux research using eddy covariance measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Derived Dynamic Operating Reserve Requirements in High-Renewable Power Systems

Accurately forecasting wind and solar power output poses challenges for deeply decarbonized electricity systems. Grid operators must commit resources to provide reserves to ensure reliable operations in the face of forecast errors, a process which can increase fuel consumption and emissions. We apply neural network-based machine learning to expand the usefulness of median point forecast data by creating probabilistic distributions of short-term uncertainty in demand, wind, and solar forecasts that adapt to prevailing grid conditions. Machine learning derived estimates of forecast errors compare favorably to estimates based on incumbent methods. Reserves derived from machine learning are usually smaller than values derived using incumbent methods, which enables fuel savings during most hours. Machine learning reserves are generally larger than incumbent reserves during times of higher forecast error, potentially improving system reliability. Performance is tested using multi-stage production simulation modeling of the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) system. Machine learning reserves provide production cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions of approximately 0.3% relative to historical 2019 requirements. Savings in the 2030 timeframe are highly dependent on battery storage capacity. At lower levels of battery capacity, savings of 0.4% from machine learning reserves are shown. Significant quantities of battery storage are expected to be added to meet California's resource adequacy needs and GHG reduction targets. Addition of these batteries saturate reserve needs and results in minimal within-hour balancing costs in 2030.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Potential Vorticity Mixing in a Tangled Magnetic Field

A theory of potential vorticity (PV) mixing in a disordered (tangled) magnetic field is introduced. The analysis is in the context of β -plane MHD, with a special focus on the physics of momentum transport in the stably stratified, quasi-2D solar tachocline. A physical picture of mean PV evolution by vorticity advection and tilting of magnetic fields is proposed. In the case of weak field perturbations, quasi-linear theory predicts that the Reynolds and magnetic stresses balance as turbulence Alfvénizes for a larger mean magnetic field. Jet formation is explored quantitatively in the mean field–resistivity parameter space. However, since even a modest mean magnetic field leads to large magnetic perturbations for large magnetic Reynolds number, the physically relevant case is that of a strong but disordered field. We show that numerical calculations indicate that the Reynolds stress is modified well before Alfvénization—i.e., before fluid and magnetic energies balance. To understand these trends, a double-average model of PV mixing in a stochastic magnetic field is developed. Calculations indicate that mean-square fields strongly modify Reynolds stress phase coherence and also induce a magnetic drag on zonal flows. The physics of transport reduction by tangled fields is elucidated and linked to the related quench of turbulent resistivity. We propose here a physical picture of the system as a resisto-elastic medium threaded by a tangled magnetic network. Applications of the theory to momentum transport in the tachocline and other systems are discussed in detail.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Ionic Interdiffusion at Cathode|Solid-Electrolyte Interface: A Machine Learning–Assisted Multiscale Investigation and Mitigation Strategies

Future lithium batteries are expected to use solid electrolytes to achieve higher energy density and fast charge capabilities. However, most solid electrolytes are thermodynamically unstable against layered oxide cathodes. In this study, the stability of LiCoO2 (LCO) cathode with Li10GeP2S12 (LGPS) solid electrolyte is investigated using ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) and machine learning molecular dynamics (MLMD). The propensity of ionic interdiffusion, formation of a passivating interphase layer, and corresponding decay in cell performance is addressed using a continuum model. Large-scale MLMD simulations confirm that the LCO|LGPS interface permits interdiffusion of cobalt (Co) and other ionic species, leading to the formation and growth of a resistive interphase and to dramatic capacity fade even in the first cycle. We examine the literature evidence that incorporating a thin layer of LiNb0.5Ta0.5O3 (LNTO) between LCO and LGPS prevents the interdiffusion of ions. Atomistic simulations suggest that substituting lithium (Li) in LNTO with Co is thermodynamically unfavorable, thereby inhibiting ionic interdiffusion. The stable Nb5+/Ta5+ states form a rigid metal-oxide framework, which consequently also prevents the substitution of niobium (Nb) or tantalum (Ta). However, continuum-level analysis suggests that the higher mechanical stiffness of LNTO can lead to interfacial delamination between the LCO and LNTO. This phenomenon reduces the effectiveness of the protective layer. This paper, therefore, highlights the need to develop novel interlayers that balance low ionic interdiffusion with low mechanical stiffness.

Ncube, Musawenkosi K.↗

Impact of biochar amendments on soil water and plant uptake dynamics under different cropping systems

Abstract Application of biochar amendments in agricultural systems has received much attention in recent years. In this study, we assess the 5‐year impacts of biochar application on soil water and plant interactions for an irrigated fresh market tomato ( Solanum lycopersicum ) and a rainfed pasture ( Poaceae ) cropping system. In particular, we focus on three varieties of locally produced biochar from agricultural waste materials—almond shell, walnut shell, and almond pruning residues that are pyrolyzed using a mobile pyrolysis unit. We used the soil hydrological model HYDRUS‐1D to explicitly track seasonal and annual soil water fluxes through changes in water retention, drainage, evaporation, and plant water uptake under biochar application. Modeling results show that the application of biochar at 5% increased soil water availability within the top 20 cm for a rainfed system, irrespective of biochar amendment type. This is clearly indicative of higher plant water uptake and greater water use efficiency (WUE) under biochar application. In contrast, a similar biochar amendment for the irrigated system did not affect WUE, instead reducing seasonal soil evaporation loss and thereby reducing irrigation demand. In both cropping systems, year‐to‐year variability in precipitation significantly impacted the total amount of water saved under biochar application with certain amendments retaining more water than others. Given that biochar application increased water retention irrespective of cropping systems, we further used a simple approach to determine yield trade‐off, if any, between control and biochar treatments. Our economic balance clearly demonstrates that the water saved by amending soil with biochar does not offset the yield disparity if compensated with carbon credits and therefore, application of biochar should be actively considered for both its direct and indirect benefits to potential greenhouse gas mitigation (e.g., diverting orchard waste from open burning), water savings, and soil health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗