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At least 811 records · Page 45

Estimation of intensity, footprint, and capacity of surface urban heat islands using a direction-enhanced adaptive synchronous extraction (DEASE) method

Here, the surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect, assessed through remotely sensed land surface temperature (LST), remains a focal point in urban climate research. Conventional indicators like SUHI intensity (SUHII) and footprint (SUHIF) capture peak values and spatial extent but fail to account for the cumulative thermal load—a critical dimension reflecting the total heat exposure imposed by spatially continuous warming, which directly limits a holistic assessment of ecological and societal impacts of the SUHI effect. Therefore, this study introduces an indicator termed SUHI capacity (SUHIC), designed to quantify the aggregated SUHI effect by integrating the magnitude of the warming signal across all affected areas, thereby enabling a more comprehensive evaluation of urban thermal environments. Furthermore, a direction-enhanced adaptive synchronous extraction (DEASE) method is proposed for the quantification of SUHIC. This method can dynamically identify the optimal background reference area based on the urban-rural LST gradients in various directions within the city, without relying on predefined mathematical models as previously. The results from 102 European cities first confirm that the directional variations in urban-rural LST gradients, and the DEASE method can effectively capture these distinctions for the simultaneous estimation of SUHII, SUHIF, and SUHIC. Secondly, the spatial patterns of absolute SUHIC values show strong associations with those of SUHIF (R2>0.86), while its relative values (normalized by the area of urban) align more closely with SUHII (R2 > 0.64). More importantly, SUHIC can serve as a crucial reference for assessing the urban thermal signal when SUHII and SUHIF diverge. The proposed method and framework contribute to standardizing the quantification of the SUHI effect.

Indicator↗

A Unified Analytical Method to Quantify Three Types of Fast Frequency Response from Inverter-Based Resources

With more inverter-based resources (IBRs), our power systems have lower frequency nadirs following N-1 contingencies, and undesired under-frequency load shedding (UFLS) can occur. To address this challenge, IBRs can be programmed to provide at least three types of fast frequency response (FFR), e.g., step response, proportional response (P/f droop response), and derivative response (synthetic inertia). However, these heterogeneous FFR challenge the study of power system frequency dynamics. Thus, this paper develops an analytical frequency nadir prediction method that allows for the consideration of all three potential forms of FFR provided by IBRs. The proposed method provides fast and accurate frequency nadir estimation after N-1 generation tripping contingencies. Our method is grounded on the closed-form solution for the frequency nadir, which is solved from the second-order system frequency response model considering the governor dynamics and three types of FFR. The simulation results in the IEEE 39-bus system with different types of FFR demonstrate that the proposed method provides an accurate and fast prediction of the frequency nadir under various disturbances.

fast frequency response↗

Pretest Modeling A Spent Nuclear Fuel Seismic Shake Test

The U.S. Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) program is planning to conduct a series of full-scale shake table tests to simulate hypothetical earthquake conditions and record the response of surrogate spent nuclear fuel (SNF) assemblies in a dry canister storage system mockup. The shake table motions will represent a range of hypothetical earthquake conditions at hypothetical locations in the continental U.S. to generally define the range of mechanical loads that SNF can be expected to experience during extended dry storage periods. This paper describes the pretest predictions made with LS-DYNA models of the mockup storage systems. The test will use two dry storage system configurations, a mockup vertical concrete cask (VCC) and a mockup horizontal storage module (HSM). The test will use a production-quality canister and basket. Within the canister will be four instrumented fuel assemblies with fuel rods containing surrogate mass and 28 instrumented dummy assemblies that are intended to match the mass and outer dimension of a fuel assembly. The finite element models include models of the VCC and HSM on the shake table to calculate the system level dynamic responses and separate single fuel assembly models to calculate stress and strain in fuel assembly components. Both types of models include nonlinear behavior like rod-to-rod contact and the ability for VCC’s to rock and slide. This paper presents the expected response of the VCC, HSM, and fuel assemblies to the shake table testing that is planned to start in April of 2024. The earthquake conditions represent seismic hazards in the 2,000-to-20,000-year return period range. The test data is expected to confirm the expectation that fuel rod cladding will remain intact, fuel assembly structural components like guide tubes will remain intact, and no significant VCC sliding or tipping will occur in the range of conditions to be tested with the shake table.

Klymyshyn, Nicholas A.↗

Experimental Study of the Fundamental Properties of Warm Dense Mixtures

The aim of the proposed research was to provide a multi-scale study of the properties of warm dense hydrocarbons, by studying the thermodynamic properties through the equation of state and the microscopic properties by x-ray scattering. Understanding the fundamental properties of warm dense mixtures is an intellectual challenge due to the complexity of the system. Unlike liquids or gases, where constituent particle interactions occur through collisions or bonding between valence electrons, in these strongly coupled systems the atoms will be partially ionized and compressed so tightly together that interactions between the inner core electrons can play a role in the systems chemistry. Advances in computational capabilities and development of new theoretical models have been used to predict the properties of mixtures but there is currently no experimental data of the fundamental interaction between the particles in mixtures to test these predictions against. The proposed research was to experimentally investigate the interaction of the different species in hydrocarbons by measuring the compressibility of substances with different carbon and hydrogen ratios and the complexity of the microscopic interactions through elastic and inelastic x-ray scattering. To study the bulk properties of warm dense hydrocarbons we established the Warm Dense Matter Research Laboratory (WDMRL) in the Institute for Shock Physics at Washington State University. The goal was for experiments in the WDMRL to determine shock loading conditions of interest in the hydrocarbon mixtures. We planned on using Hugoniot EOS measurements and a range of carbon and hydrogen concentrations to determine conditions when the EOS of the mixture varied significantly from that of the classical mixing model. Even though shock transit measurements through aluminum foils suggested pressures upto 400GPa, the experiments in the WDMRL were unsuccessful in getting usable shockwave compression data above 100GPa in polystyrene which was below the pressure of interest for hydrocarbon mixtures (>200GPa). To complete the project, we tested a technique using x-ray phase contrast imaging to map the location of tracer layers in a test sample of polycarbonate to record the material motion in dynamically compressed samples. A technique that will be useful for future warm dense matter experiments. These experiments used <200nm gold layers in polycarbonate samples to measure the material velocity and shock speed using x-ray phase contrast imaging. These results were compared to continuum surface measurements performed at ISP and show that the tracer layer technique can measure hydrodynamic properties accurately in dynamically compressed materials.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Piezoelectric Energy Harvesting Gyroscopes: Comparative Modeling and Effectiveness

Given its versatility in drawing power from many sources in the natural world, piezoelectric energy harvesting (PEH) has become increasingly popular. However, its energy harvesting capacities could be enhanced further. Here, a mathematical model that accurately simulates the dynamic behavior and energy harvested can facilitate further improvements in the performance of piezoelectric devices. One of the goals of this study is to create a dependable reduced-order model of a multi-purpose gyroscope. This model will make it possible to compute the harvested voltage and electrical power in a semi-analytical manner. The harvested voltage is often modeled as an average value across the whole electrode surface in piezoelectric devices. We propose a model which provides practical insights toward optimizing the performance of the system by considering a spatially varying electric field across the electrode surface length. Our framework allows investigation of the limits of applicability of the modeling assumptions across a range of load resistances. The differential quadrature method (DQM) provides the basis for the suggested numerical solution. The model is also employed to examine energy harvesting under various resistance loads. The newly developed spatially varying model is evaluated for open- and closed-circuit conditions and is proved to be accurate for various values of load resistance that have not previously been considered. The results show that using a spatially varying model is more versatile when modeling the performance of the piezoelectric multifunctional energy harvester. The performance may be accurately captured by the model for load resistances ranging between 103 Ω and 108 Ω. At optimum load resistance and near 65 KHz, the maximum power output predicted by the spatially varying (SV) model is 1.3 mV, 1.5 mV for the open-circuit (OC) model, and 2.1 mV for the closed circuit (CE) model. At a high-load resistance, the SV and OC models all predict the maximum power output to be 1.9 mV while the CE model predicted the maximum voltage to be 3 mV.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Implosion dynamics of triple-nozzle gas-puff z pinches on COBRA

Experiments on the 1-MA, 220-ns COBRA generator at Cornell University were conducted to provide detailed measurements of structured cylindrical gas-puff z pinches. In the experiments, a 7 cm diameter triple-nozzle gas valve assembly with concentric outer and inner annular nozzles and a central gas jet initialize the z-pinch load with various working gases, radial density profiles, and externally applied axial magnetic fields. Planar laser-induced fluorescence provides a measure of the initial neutral gas density of the load, while three-frame laser shearing interferometry and multi-frame extreme ultraviolet (XUV) cameras reveal the formation and propagation of a magneto-Rayleigh–Taylor (MRT) unstable shock layer. Implosion trajectories are compared to simple, experimentally informed models and found to be in good agreement. Differences in the structure of the accelerating plasma sheath and evolution of the MRT instability are observed for different gas species and axial magnetic field strengths, correlating with differences in pinch uniformity and x-ray emission. Here, the average instability growth is compared to linear MRT theory predictions using the instantaneous acceleration of the best-fit implosion models and characteristic instability wavelength, with the effective Atwood number and seed perturbation size as fit parameters. For high density argon center jets, ionization prior to the arrival of the imploding plasma sheath suggests a heating mechanism consistent with photoionization by XUV self-emission.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Characteristics of Fluid‐Solid Interaction Constitutive Models Within Poroelastodynamics at Higher Strain‐Rates and Large Deformations Implemented in 1D

The large deformation, mixed formulation, finite element (FE) modeling approach presented in Irwin et al. 2024 is extended herein to include improved constitutive models for representing dynamic solid-fluid interactions at higher strain rates (𝒪⁢(1⁢0 2 −1⁢0 3 )⁢s −1 ) and larger overpressure magnitudes (𝒪⁡(1⁢0 2 )⁢kPa) within a biphasic soft porous material using Theory of Porous Media (TPM) at finite strain. Specifically, these constitutive modeling improvements are the following: (i) a more physically robust constitutive model for pore fluid seepage velocity via inclusion of pore fluid viscous stress, and (ii) a modified deformation-dependent-permeability model and updated hyperelastic constitutive model better suited for handling larger volumetric compressions and extensions. The novelty of the present work is mainly the contribution (i): inclusion of pore fluid viscous stress at higher strain-rate and large deformations, which requires 𝐶 1 continuity in the weak formulation, accomplished by employing Hermite cubic interpolation functions within a mixed nonlinear poromechanical finite element formulation. In (ii), the model is updated to weakly enforce solid phase incompressibility, such that this assumption is not violated numerically, which provides improved numerical stability for achieving larger overpressure magnitudes on 𝒪⁡(1⁢0 2 ) kPa, which were not achievable with the previous Kozeny–Carman model in Irwin et al. 2024. Also in (ii), the volumetric part of the solid skeleton free energy function is modified to ensure proper bounds on the solid skeleton Jacobian of deformation 𝐽 s related to incompressibility of the solid phase. Uniaxial strain, unidirectional flow examples at higher strain rates (𝒪⁢(1⁢0 2 −1⁢0 3 )⁢s −1 ) and larger deformations (up to 0.2 (or 20%) nominal axial strain) demonstrate the improved physical representation—and numerical stability—of these constitutive model improvements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Two-population Rouse models for polymer segmental dynamics in nanocomposites

Segmental dynamics of polymer chains in a model nanocomposite of poly(ethylene oxide) and silica nanoparticles (NPs) was investigated using quasielastic neutron scattering. The dynamics can be accurately described with the Rouse model. The bulklike polymer far from the NP surface behaves as the neat polymer. However, the slower polymer in the interface close to the NP surface is described either with a second Rouse population with different relaxation time or using the suppressed Rouse model. These simple two-population models accurately reproduce the experimental data, with the suppressed Rouse model describing topological constraints, on average, every 12 beads with an interfacial thickness up to 13.5 beads, and the effect of the interface extending to a layer of thickness comparable to the end-to-end distance of the polymer. This modeling provides an explanation for the observed reinforcement in PNC even at low loadings, consistent with current understanding of the relevance of the interphase.

Composite materials↗

Reducing the matrix effect in mass spectral imaging of biofilms using flow-cell culture

The interactions between soil microorganisms and soil minerals play a crucial role in the formation and evolution of minerals and the stability of soil aggregates. Due to the heterogeneity and diversity of the soil environment, the under-standing of the functions of bacterial biofilms in soil minerals at the microscale is limited. A soil mineral-bacterial biofilm system was used as a model in this study, and it was analyzed by time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) to acquire molecular level information. Static culture in multi-wells and dynamic flow-cell culture in microfluidics of biofilms were investigated. Our results show that more characteristic molecules of biofilms can be observed in SIMS spectra of the flow-cell culture. In contrast, biofilm signature peaks are buried under the mineral components in SIMS spectra in the static culture case. Spectral overlay was used in peak selection prior to performing Principal component analysis (PCA). Comparisons of the PCA results between the static and flow-cell culture show more pronounced molecular features and higher loadings of organic peaks of the dynamic cultured specimens. For example, fatty acids secreted from bacterial biofilm extracellular polymeric substance are likely to be responsible for biofilm dispersal due to mineral treatment up to 48 h. Such findings suggest that the use of microfluidic cells to dynamically culture biofilms be a more suitable method for reducing the matrix effect arisen from the growth medium and minerals as a perturbation fac-tor for improved spectral and multivariate analysis of complex mass spectral data in ToF-SIMS. These results show that the interaction mechanism between biofilms and soil minerals at the molecular level can be better studied using the flow-cell culture and advanced mass spectral imaging techniques like ToF-SIMS.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Coupling turbulent flow with blade aeroelastics and control modules in large-eddy simulation of utility-scale wind turbines

We present a large-eddy simulation framework capable of control co-design of large wind turbines, coupling the turbulent flow environment with blade aeroelastics and turbine controllers. The geometry and aerodynamics of the rotor blades and the turbine nacelle are parameterized using an actuator surface model. The baseline collective pitch control and individual pitch control (IPC) algorithms, consisting of a single-input, single-output proportional–integral controller and two integral controllers, respectively, are incorporated into the simulation framework. Furthermore, a second-order model based on the Euler–Bernoulli beam theory is implemented to describe the blade deformation. Simulations are carried out to investigate the impact of collective and individual pitch control strategies on the deflection of turbine blades. Our results show that the IPC reduces the blade tip deflection fluctuations in the out-of-plane direction, while the fluctuations of the blade tip deflection along the in-plane direction are barely affected by the IPC. Furthermore, the blade out-of-plane deformation fluctuation is underestimated by the one-way coupling approach compared to the two-way coupling approach. Furthermore, the findings of this study reveal the importance of advanced control systems in reducing the dynamic loads on wind turbine blades and underscore the potential of control co-design to reduce the levelized cost of wind energy.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Empirical Assessment of the Appliance-Level Load Shape and Demand Response Potential in India

Over the next 15 years, electricity demand from the key residential and commercial appliances is projected to be nearly 300 GW or ~65% of India’s total peak demand. The objective of this study is to characterize appliance level demand and temporal variation, and identify the overall DR potential in India. We use Bangalore Electricity Supply Company territory (peak load of 3,505 MW in 2016) as a case study, using actual one-minute resolution load data for 2,979 distribution feeders and a detailed load survey. Our results show that agricultural pumping and space cooling (residential, commercial, and industrial) are the main contributors to the peak demand – with shares of 23-27% and 14-23%, respectively. Both sectors have about 1,000 MW of DR potential – agricultural pumps offering load shifting service while space cooling offering shimmy service that is capable of dynamically adjusting to react to short-run ramps and grid disturbances. Residential electric water heaters contribute nearly 18% of the winter morning peak demand and can also offer about 500 MW in shimmy service. Overall, we find that shifting and shimmy services offer 1,199 MW and 1,511 MW total DR potential, respectively.

demand response↗

Effects of nanoconfinement and surface charge on iron adsorption on mesoporous silica

Here, we present a combined molecular dynamics (MD) simulation and X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS) spectroscopic investigation of aqueous iron adsorption on nanoconfined amorphous silica surfaces. The simulation models examine the effects of pore size, pH (surface charge), iron valency, and counter-ion (chloride or hydroxide). The simulation methods were validated by comparing the coordination environment of adsorbed iron with coordination numbers and bond lengths derived from XAFS. In the MD models, nanoconfinement effects on local iron coordination were investigated by comparing results for unconfined silica surfaces and in confined domains within 2 nm, 4 nm, and 8 nm pores. Experimentally, coordination environments of iron adsorbed onto mesoporous silica with 4 nm and 8 nm pores at pH 7.5 were investigated. The effect of pH in the MD models was included by simulating Fe(II) adsorption onto negatively charged SiO 2 surfaces and Fe(III) adsorption on neutral surfaces. The simulation results show that iron adsorption depends significantly on silica surface charge, as expected based on electrostatic interactions. Adsorption on a negatively charged surface is an order of magnitude greater than on the neutral surface, and simulated surface coverages are consistent with experimental results. Pore size effects from the MD simulations were most notable in the adsorption of Fe(II) at deprotonated surface sites (SiO - ), but adsorption trends varied with concentration and aqueous Fe speciation. The coordination environment of adsorbed iron varied significantly with the type of anion. Considerable ion pairing with hydroxide anions led to the formation of oligomeric surface complexes and aqueous species, resulting in larger iron hydroxide clusters at higher surface loadings.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermal-Fluid and Thermal-Structural Response of the T-Tube Modular Divertor to Spatiotemporally Varying Heat Loads

Tungsten (W) is the leading candidate for divertor target plates because of its high melting point (>3000°C), thermal conductivity, and ultimate tensile stress. While W and its alloys are the only solid materials that can survive the high heat fluxes incident on the divertor, W’s low-ductility high ductile-to-brittle transition temperature of ~600°C and relatively low recrystallization temperature (RT) of ~1300°C pose structural (among other) challenges. The objective of this work is to estimate the thermal-fluid and thermal-structural performance of the helium (He)-cooled T-tube divertor, which was originally developed by the Advanced Reactor Innovation and Evaluation Study (ARIES) using numerical simulations. Here, predictions of temperature distributions across the plasma-facing structural component and surface pressures from computational fluid dynamics simulations are used to determine stress distributions using commercial structural finite element modeling software over a range of fusion-relevant conditions. The maximum allowable incident heat fluxes are determined based on the temperature limits imposed by the ITER elastic Structural Design Criteria for In-vessel Components (SDC-IC) and the maximum RT over a range of He mass flow rates and presented in the form of performance design charts. Our recent work found that thermal- structural criteria accounting for the low ductility of W in a finger-type modular divertor constrain the maximum incident heat fluxes to values well below the ITER specifications, and those based on considering only the RT demonstrate that integrated thermal-fluid and elastic structural performance evaluation are required for accurate assessment of divertor performance. This novel analysis of the T-tube considers how nonuniform and transient incident heat fluxes affect its thermal-fluid and thermal-structural performance, as well as the effect of volumetric heating, which can be as great as 27% of the power incident on the divertor surface. The W tile of the T-tube, with its relatively large plasma-facing area of ~15 cm 2 , will likely experience significant spatial variations in incident heat flux. This work therefore assesses whether steady-state incident heat flux profiles with a peak of 10 MW/m 2 and maximum heat flux gradients of 200 MW/m 2 per m exceed the structural limits imposed by the ITER elastic SDC-IC and the maximum RT over a range of fusion-relevant conditions. The effect of transient heat fluxes typical of plasma detachment and reattachment from the target plate due, for example, to gas injection are also evaluated

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Analysis of the Amorphous and Interphase Influence of Comononomer Loading on Polymer Properties toward Forwarding Bioadvantaged Copolyamides

In this paper we present an approach for selectively modifying the properties of semicrystalline polymers by introducing “bioadvantaged” counits. With this approach, the unique functionality of biomass can be leveraged to tailor the properties of the amorphous phase of semicrystalline polymers with minimal impact on crystallinity and thermomechanical properties. As a model case, PA 6,6 copolyamides were produced using the bioadvantaged monomer trans-3-hexenedioic acid (t3HDA). The analogous structure of t3HDA to adipic acid, a PA 6,6 monomer, allows for seamless integration. Screening over the entire composition range identified the t3HDA loading (20 mol%) beyond which properties deviate appreciably from Nylon 6,6. Once identified, copolyamides of suitable compositions were upgraded to commercial quality and fully characterized to assess the influence of counit loading and polymer structure on thermal and mechanical properties. Samples were characterized using gel permeation chromatography (GPC), proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H NMR), heteronuclear single quantum coherence spectroscopy (HSQC), wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA), tensile testing, flexural testing, and water absorption testing. t3HDA units were shown to hydrate during the harsh polycondensation to 3-hydroxyhexanedioic acid (3HHDA) and fully incorporate into the polymer backbone. Loading levels up to 20% were shown to have comparable thermal and mechanical properties in the dry state, yet moisture absorption—a known method for improving the toughness, yield strain, and elongation of polyamides—was enhanced by over 100% at 20% loading. This case study on bioadvantaged copolymers elucidates the governing structure-function principles that can be leveraged to forward value-added renewable polymers.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Developing the Science Basis for Understanding Polymer Encapsulant Degradation Mechanisms: DuraMAT 2.0 Final Project Report

Polymeric encapsulants are essential materials in photovoltaic modules, protecting sensitive electronics from the environment while providing mechanical integrity to the multilayered assembly. However, these polymeric materials are susceptible to degradation processes driven by the ingress of environmental species, ultraviolet radiation, thermal stresses, and mechanical loading. In this study, we employ a combined atomistic simulation and accelerated aging experimental approach to study the molecular-scale mechanisms of encapsulant degradation. Classical molecular dynamics simulations quantify the diffusion of environmental and degradation species through the polymer matrix, producing composition-specific diffusion coefficients. Reactive simulations characterize activation energy barriers and reaction rate constants for key chemical pathways. In parallel, thermal-desorption analyses coupled with mass spectrometry monitor the emergence and concentration profiles of degradation products under controlled stressor conditions. By integrating simulation and experiment, we establish quantitative correlations between polymer composition, species diffusivity, and chemical reactivity. We anticipate that these relations and quantitative values could serve as high-fidelity inputs to reaction-diffusion models, enabling physics-informed lifetime predictions and guiding the design of more durable encapsulant materials for solar energy applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Mechanism of the cadherin–catenin F-actin catch bond interaction

Mechanotransduction at cell–cell adhesions is crucial for the structural integrity, organization, and morphogenesis of epithelia. At cell–cell junctions, ternary E-cadherin/β-catenin/αE-catenin complexes sense and transmit mechanical load by binding to F-actin. The interaction with F-actin, described as a two-state catch bond, is weak in solution but is strengthened by applied force due to force-dependent transitions between weak and strong actin-binding states. Here, we provide direct evidence from optical trapping experiments that the catch bond property principally resides in the αE-catenin actin-binding domain (ABD). Consistent with our previously proposed model, the deletion of the first helix of the five-helix ABD bundle enables stable interactions with F-actin under minimal load that are well described by a single-state slip bond, even when αE-catenin is complexed with β-catenin and E-cadherin. Our data argue for a conserved catch bond mechanism for adhesion proteins with structurally similar ABDs. We also demonstrate that a stably bound ABD strengthens load-dependent binding interactions between a neighboring complex and F-actin, but the presence of the other αE-catenin domains weakens this effect. These results provide mechanistic insight to the cooperative binding of the cadherin–catenin complex to F-actin, which regulate dynamic cytoskeletal linkages in epithelial tissues.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The value of integrating a geothermal district heating system into a microgrid

As electrical grids increasingly rely on variable renewable energy, maintaining reliability and cost efficiency becomes more complex. To address these challenges, this study analyzed the integration of geothermal district heating as a grid-responsive thermal resource within a microgrid in Tuttle, Oklahoma. Building energy modeling using EnergyPlus estimated annual district heating demand at 2.9 GWh, with a peak load of 2.8 MW th . Techno-economic analyses were conducted to meet the heating demand under three geothermal scenarios, varying by production depth, flow rate, and thermal output, each supplemented by natural gas peaking boilers. In parallel, equivalent electrical load profiles were developed using typical coefficients of performance (COPs) for air-source heat pumps and electric boilers to establish an electrified baseline scenario. A complete end-use electrical load profile was also developed for the microgrid using Cambium dataset. The modeling results demonstrated reliable and economic operation of the geothermal systems over 30 years, with COPs ranging from 2.6 to 8.9 and the lowest levelized heating cost at $\$$54.6/MWh. Geothermal integration reduced electricity consumption by up to 94.7 % compared to the non-geothermal base case, yielding annual energy savings of up to $\$$803 k. Avoided grid costs ranged from $\$$65 k–$\$$147 k per year, with individual events avoiding up to $\$$4,863 per hour. Grid-responsive operation further reduced wholesale energy costs by 53–56 %. These findings demonstrate geothermal heating, traditionally treated as a non-grid-responsive thermal resource, can be reconfigured to support dynamic grid services, offering a scalable pathway to enhance reliability and reduce costs in renewable-rich microgrids and district heating networks.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

End of Green Sahara amplified mid- to late Holocene megadroughts in mainland Southeast Asia

Between 5 and 4 thousand years ago, crippling megadroughts led to the disruption of ancient civilizations across parts of Africa and Asia, yet the extent of these climate extremes in mainland Southeast Asia (MSEA) has never been defined. This is despite archeological evidence showing a shift in human settlement patterns across the region during this period. We report evidence from stalagmite climate records indicating a major decrease of monsoon rainfall in MSEA during the mid- to late Holocene, coincident with African monsoon failure during the end of the Green Sahara. Through a set of modeling experiments, we show that reduced vegetation and increased dust loads during the Green Sahara termination shifted the Walker circulation eastward and cooled the Indian Ocean, causing a reduction in monsoon rainfall in MSEA. Our results indicate that vegetation-dust climate feedbacks from Sahara drying may have been the catalyst for societal shifts in MSEA via ocean-atmospheric teleconnections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗