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At least 811 records · Page 45

Delineation of vulnerable areas to water erosion in a mountain region using SDR-InVEST model: A case study of the Ourika watershed, Morocco

The Ourika watershed is characterized by higher than average flood flows, a rugged topography, a sparse vegetation cover and a friable substrate that makes it vulnerable to soil erosion. Soil is an important non-renewable asset capital, providing several ecosystem services that sustain life through physical and biological regulation processes. The loss, or otherwise, redistribution of biota by soil erosion in the Ourika watershed has received little attention and thus constitutes a key knowledge gap that needs to be addressed. This study quantifies the level of erosion and maps its spatial distribution in the watershed using the Sediment Delivery Ratio (SDR) of the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model (InVEST3.6.0). The SDR maps the overland sediment generation and delivery to the stream at the watershed level using rainfall, soil properties, topography, cover management and cropping practices as predefined set of input variables. Recommended internal model calibration was used and results were compared to similar studies carried out in different parts of Morocco for validation. The results reveal that 93% of the watershed is subject to a strong rainfall aggressiveness greater than 50 MJ mm ha–1 h–1 yr1 under an average rainfall intensity of 541 mm/year, rainfall capacity to initiate the detachment and transport of soil particles by runoff, and only 11.5% of the watershed area is protected with vegetative cover. We find that overall, the Ourika watershed is losing its soil to erosion at an alarming average rate of 258.48 ton.ha–1.yr–1, a rate well above the tolerable threshold of 7ton.ha–1.yr–1. The spatial distribution of this loss shows areas that need to be urgently remedied. The primary factors for soil erosion in the Ourika watershed appear to be related to the aggressive nature of local rainfall and the inherent susceptibility of soils, which can be costly to this cash-crop region. Because rainfall intensity, soil properties, and topography are intrinsic characteristics of the watershed, we suggest that seasonally adapted cropping rotations that maintains conservative practices with a high cover management may reduce soil erosion in the Ourika watershed.

Erosion↗

Advancing Autonomy in Distributed Space Systems: Insights From on-Orbit Testing with the Starling 1.0 Mission

Autonomous decision-making is crucial for enhancing mission effectiveness in Distributed Space Systems (DSS), particularly in multi-spacecraft operations where communication constraints and mission complexity pose challenges. The Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy (DSA) team at NASA’s Ames Research Center is advancing autonomy in DSS through five key technical areas: distributed resource and task management, reactive operations, system modeling and simulation, human-swarm interaction, and ad hoc network communications. The DSA experiment onboard the Starling 1.0 Mission showcases collaborative resource allocation for multi-point science data collection with four small spacecraft. Autonomy in decision-making is highlighted as a crucial factor for multi-spacecraft missions, enabling spacecraft to operate independently, reducing reliance on ground control. This capability is particularly significant for future deep-space missions, where communication delays and limited data transmission capacity make traditional command and control approaches impractical. This demonstration focuses on a GPS Channel Selection Experiment, leveraging emergent capabilities like "shared sampling" and "simultaneous sampling" to optimize channel selection across the spacecraft swarm. The experiment aims to capture ionospheric phenomena such as the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly and Polar Patches. The DSA system's autonomous reconfiguration ability is showcased, emphasizing its adaptability to natural phenomena without significant integration efforts. The GPS Channel Selection Experiment utilizes a dual-band GPS receiver to estimate plasma density in the ionosphere. Explorative and exploitative channel selections are employed based on the nature of observed phenomena. The performance of DSA algorithms is evaluated in terms of optimal channel allocations and responsiveness to changes in observed features. The DSA Flight Software utilizes the Core Flight System (cFS) framework, ensuring compatibility with the Starling 1.0 flight mission software. DSA showcases results from RTI’s Connext DDS Micro communication middleware, enabling message routing over the Ad-Hoc Network of Starling 1.0. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the DSA experiment's initial results, emphasizing the advancements in autonomy for Distributed Space Systems and the successful collaboration with the Starling 1.0 mission.

Caleb Ashmore Adams↗

The Integrated Impact of Diet on Human Immune Response, the Gut Microbiota, and Nutritional Status During Adaptation to a Spaceflight Analog

Spaceflight impacts human physiology, including well documented immune system dysregulation. Diet, immune function, and the microbiome are interlinked, but diet is the only one of these factors that we have the ability to easily, and significantly, alter on Earth or during flight. As we understand dietary impacts on physiology more thoroughly, we may then improve the spaceflight diet to improve crew health and potentially reduce spaceflight-associated physiological alterations. It is expected that increasing the consumption of fruits and vegetables and bioactive compounds (e.g., omega-3 fatty acids, lycopene, flavonoids) and therefore enhancing overall nutritional intake from the nominal shelf-stable, fully-processed space food system could serve as a countermeasure to improve human immunological profiles, the taxonomic profile of the gut microbiota, and nutritional status, especially where currently dysregulated during spaceflight. This interdisciplinary study will determine the effect of the current shelf-stable spaceflight diet compared to an "enhanced" shelf-stable spaceflight diet (25% more foods rich in omega-3 fatty acids, lycopene, flavonoids, and more fruits, and vegetables in general). The NASA Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) 2017 missions, consisting of four 45-day missions with closed chamber confinement and realistic mission simulation in a high-fidelity mock space vehicle, will serve as a platform to replicate mission stressors and the effects on crew biochemistry, immunology, and the gut microbiome. Bio sampling of crewmembers is scheduled for selected intervals pre- and in-mission. Data collection also includes dietary intake recording. Outcome measures will include immune markers (e.g., peripheral leukocyte distribution, inflammatory cytokine profiles, T cell function), the taxonomic and metatranscriptomic profile of the gut microbiome, and nutritional status biomarkers and metabolites. Statistical evaluations will determine physiological and biochemical shifts in relation to nutrient intake and study phase. To date, sample collection has been completed for 2 crewmembers from the first mission, aka Campaign 4 Mission 1. Mission 2 was terminated after 22 days due to effects of Hurricane Harvey, and sample collection was not completed. Sample collection will continue for Campaign 4 Mission 3 and 4 prior to comprehensive sample analysis. Beneficial improvements will provide evidence of the impact of diet on crew health and adaptation to this spaceflight analog, and will aid in the design and development of more-efficient targeted dietary interventions for exploration missions.

Douglas, G. L.↗

Modified Matrix Method for Calculating Steady-State Span Loading on Flexible Wings in Subsonic Flight

A method is presented for shortening the computations required to determine the steady-state span loading on flexible wings in subsonic flight. The method makes use of tables of downwash factors to find the necessary aerodynamic-influence coefficients for the application of lifting-line theory. Explicit matrix equations of equilibrium are converted into a matrix power series with a finite number of terms by utilizing certain characteristic properties of matrices. The number of terms in the series is determined by a trial-and-error process dependent upon the required accuracy of the solution. Spanwise distributions of angle of attack, airload, shear, bending moment, and pitching moment are readily obtained as functions of qm(sub R) where q denotes the dynamic pressure and mR denotes the lift-curve slope of a rigid wing. This method is intended primarily to make it practical to solve steady-state aeroelastic problems on the ordinary manually operated desk calculators, but the method is also readily adaptable to automatic computing equipment.

Gainer, Patrick A.↗

Creating A Consistent Historical NASA POWER Solar Radiation Dataset to Support Renewable Energy, Building Energy Efficiency and Agro-Climatology Decisions

Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project provides irradiance dataset to support renewable energy, building energy efficiency and agricultural needs. These datasets are derived from Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Surface Radiation Budget (GEWEX SRB) and Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES SYN1Deg). A systematic bias has been reported between these two datasets for the years with overlapping observations. For obtaining a consistent climate data record spanning the entire time record of observations, it is crucial to understand and remove the bias in the irradiance dataset. Inconsistency in solar radiation data can lead to inaccurate conclusions about solar energy potential and obscure real trends in solar radiation patterns that would impact energy availability assessments. In this study, we adapt quantile mapping approach to remove the systematic bias and to improve reliability of shortwave and longwave irradiance data. We present a validation of the bias corrected data against ground truth. For each 1° latitude and 1° longitude grid box across the globe, we match the CDFs of the reference dataset (CERES SYN1Deg) to that of the SRB dataset, thereby, adjusting the irradiance values to match the empirical distribution of two different measurements. The performance of quantile mapping is evaluated by using the metrics such as Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). The results indicate that the quantile mapping significantly improves the accuracy and reliability of solar irradiance dataset especially for the weather conditions associated with high cloud cover and extreme irradiance values. The initial range of MAD for the studied sites for daily data was 4 to 19 Wm-2. After correction these reduced to 3 to 7 Wm-2. The findings from this study have important implications for solar energy system design, agricultural planning, and climate modeling community. Reducing the inconsistency and biases in solar irradiance dataset can enable better planning and operation of solar energy systems, leading to increased efficiency and cost-effectiveness. Additionally, this work also contributes to the statistical post-processing techniques in the renewable energy domain and highlights the potential of historical and near-real-time NASA POWER dataset as a valuable resource for solar energy research and applications.

POWER↗

Baltimore Energy & Infrastructure: Assessing Urban Heat Vulnerability in Baltimore Neighborhoods to Inform Transportation Resiliency Planning Efforts

Across the world, climate change is altering cities and their local climate systems. Following global trends of rising mean temperatures, Baltimore, Maryland is projected to experience more frequent extreme heat events. Exacerbated by Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects, residents of the city face high temperatures from limited tree canopy, highly paved and impervious surfaces, limited air flow, and high concentrations of localized emissions. Urban heat is dispersed asymmetrically, with historically marginalized populations experiencing disproportionately severe heat. Recognizing the impacts of extreme urban heat, the Maryland Transit Administration (MTA) collaborated with us, the Spring 2024 Goddard Energy and Infrastructure NASA DEVELOP team to assess urban impacts of MTA users and assets and explore opportunities to enhance resiliency planning. We evaluated the feasibility of NASA Earth observations (EOs) in visualizing heat vulnerability in Baltimore City and County. We mapped UHI and extreme heat using remote sensing observations, tailored a Heat Priority Score (HPS) to analyze heat data in tandem with socioeconomic data from American Community Survey (ACS), and utilized SOlar and LongWave Environmental Irradiance Geometry (SOLWEIG) model to estimate MTA riders’ thermal comfort. NASA EOs served to quantify the distribution and severity of extreme heat at the block group level, which was found to correlate with a lack of vegetation and presence of densely built-up surroundings. The HPS revealed that extreme heat events most negatively impact communities that exhibit social vulnerability through indicators such as age, race, and income. These findings will inform neighborhood resiliency plans for the MTA that can be incorporated into their Adaptation Resiliency Toolbox (ART).

Baltimore,↗

Network-Capable Application Process and Wireless Intelligent Sensors for ISHM

Intelligent sensor technology and systems are increasingly becoming attractive means to serve as frameworks for intelligent rocket test facilities with embedded intelligent sensor elements, distributed data acquisition elements, and onboard data acquisition elements. Networked intelligent processors enable users and systems integrators to automatically configure their measurement automation systems for analog sensors. NASA and leading sensor vendors are working together to apply the IEEE 1451 standard for adding plug-and-play capabilities for wireless analog transducers through the use of a Transducer Electronic Data Sheet (TEDS) in order to simplify sensor setup, use, and maintenance, to automatically obtain calibration data, and to eliminate manual data entry and error. A TEDS contains the critical information needed by an instrument or measurement system to identify, characterize, interface, and properly use the signal from an analog sensor. A TEDS is deployed for a sensor in one of two ways. First, the TEDS can reside in embedded, nonvolatile memory (typically flash memory) within the intelligent processor. Second, a virtual TEDS can exist as a separate file, downloadable from the Internet. This concept of virtual TEDS extends the benefits of the standardized TEDS to legacy sensors and applications where the embedded memory is not available. An HTML-based user interface provides a visual tool to interface with those distributed sensors that a TEDS is associated with, to automate the sensor management process. Implementing and deploying the IEEE 1451.1-based Network-Capable Application Process (NCAP) can achieve support for intelligent process in Integrated Systems Health Management (ISHM) for the purpose of monitoring, detection of anomalies, diagnosis of causes of anomalies, prediction of future anomalies, mitigation to maintain operability, and integrated awareness of system health by the operator. It can also support local data collection and storage. This invention enables wide-area sensing and employs numerous globally distributed sensing devices that observe the physical world through the existing sensor network. This innovation enables distributed storage, distributed processing, distributed intelligence, and the availability of DiaK (Data, Information, and Knowledge) to any element as needed. It also enables the simultaneous execution of multiple processes, and represents models that contribute to the determination of the condition and health of each element in the system. The NCAP (intelligent process) can configure data-collection and filtering processes in reaction to sensed data, allowing it to decide when and how to adapt collection and processing with regard to sophisticated analysis of data derived from multiple sensors. The user will be able to view the sensing device network as a single unit that supports a high-level query language. Each query would be able to operate over data collected from across the global sensor network just as a search query encompasses millions of Web pages. The sensor web can preserve ubiquitous information access between the querier and the queried data. Pervasive monitoring of the physical world raises significant data and privacy concerns. This innovation enables different authorities to control portions of the sensing infrastructure, and sensor service authors may wish to compose services across authority boundaries.

Figueroa, Fernando↗

Investigating Low-Altitude Constellations of Ad-Hoc Lunar PNT System for Distributed Spacecraft Autonomy

In this study, we examine a low-altitude Lunar Position, Navigation, and Timing (LPNT) constellations and the localization performance of Centralized Extended Kalman Filter (CEKF) and Decentralized Extended Kalman Filter (DEKF) algorithms. The primary investigation involves a 100-node swarm operating at a 100 km altitude, in contrast to previous studies that examined a 21-node asset in a frozen-orbit at 5,500 km. The autonomous operation of large-scale swarm is based on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve pseudoranges and relative velocities among swarm nodes. We perform a numerical assessment of the two filtering approaches, utilizing ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets as well as ‘two ISL’ measurements where each spacecraft is restricted to only two antennas. This research includes an analysis of CEKF under 2-ISL constraints and evaluates the performance of DEKF in a 100-node swarm, which has not been explored in previous studies. In addition, we examine the impact of increasing the sampling frequency for DEKF, showing that the update cycle can be shortened from a 10-minute interval. A novel approach for ‘2-ISL limited’ DEKF will also be introduced, using a matching formulation that exhaustively enumerates all potential matches. This study provides valuable insights into large-scale distributed swarm operations, considering various filter configurations, sampling frequencies, matching strategies, and scalability of CEKF and DEKF for low-altitude LPNT applications. The Lunar PNT technology plays a key role in providing reliable and robust navigation services on the Moon's surface and the South pole, where the primary Lunar missions are planned. To support upcoming Lunar missions, including small satellites from NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services program, the Lunar PNT system must be adaptable to smaller platforms like CubeSats. Driven by the growing involvement of public and private exploration partnerships, the traditional low Earth orbit missions are shifting to beyond geosynchronous orbit [1]. These upcoming missions aim to foster a sustainable and innovative exploration program, in collaboration with commercial and international partners, to facilitate human expansion throughout the solar system and return new knowledge and opportunities to Earth [2]. As part of this trend, there are increasing efforts to utilize science missions in Lunar orbit to develop a non-dedicated and ad-hoc PNT network system. Two traditional approaches, the Deep Space Network (DSN) and the weak signal Global Positioning System (GPS), are established deep-space navigation technologies for missions beyond the geosynchronous orbit. Beginning in 1958, the DSN was developed to communicate with the Explorer 1 spacecraft based on the use of radiometric tracking in spacecraft navigation [3]. The DSN is capable of providing nearly unfettered coverage to spacecraft beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), however, increased space mission volume has created concerns about future expectations of DSN usage for spacecraft navigation [4]. For cislunar mission applications, the position accuracy using DSN achieves 100 m (3σ) with at least three geometrically diverse ground stations when using radiometric tracking alone [5]. The DSN's dependence on Earth-based ground stations restricts its operational capabilities to periods of Earth visibility. This limitation, coupled with its poor localization performance, renders the DSN unsuitable for future lunar missions that demand continuous tracking and precise positioning. To satisfy the increasing requirements of DSN in Lunar applications, spacecrafts are also required to improve their onboard antenna power and efficiency of the transmission. However, there is an important aggregate cost trade between adding capabilities to every spacecraft and adding to a capacity on the ground that serves multiple spacecraft [6]. A weak GPS system can provide PNT service while the user spacecraft is bound to the Moon, leveraging a single, steerable high gain antenna with the relatively narrow beam which includes all the sources in its field of view [7]. However, the higher the altitude the receiver is above the GPS constellations, the poorer and the weaker are the relative geometry and the received signal powers, respectively, leading to a significant navigation accuracy reduction [8]. The transmitted power becomes weaker with increasing distance from the Earth as well as signals tracked from one of the side lobes of the GPS antenna pattern. As a results, the number of visible satellites and relative geometric condition of the GPS satellites at very high altitude drops dramatically and reduces the navigation solution accuracy. Therefore, the weak GPS system is also not an ideal way to provide PNT service to upcoming Lunar missions when considering its limited geometric condition and the recued navigation accuracy. Another navigation approach on the Moon is being developed, similar to the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) on Earth, aiming to offer navigation service with continuous 24/7 coverage across the entire Lunar surface. For example, lunar communications relay and navigation systems (LCRNS) by NASA and Lunar navigation satellite systems (LNSS) by JAXA are designed to serve as dedicated Position, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) systems for the Moon. However, designing a dedicated LNSS and PNT service involves additional challenges, which are unique to the lunar environment, including limited payload capacity for the CubeSat platform, i.e., the size, weight, and power (SWaP) of the onboard clock, limited lunar ground monitoring stations, and limited financial investment as compared to the legacy Earth-GPS [9]. NASA’s focus on utilizing CubeSat platforms on the Moon leads to an alternative Lunar navigation platform that leverages the existing Lunar science and exploration assets. The small satellites used in Lunar missions can be used to create a low-cost, autonomous, ad-hoc, and on-demand mission-centric Lunar PNT swarm capable of providing PNT services to these low-cost lunar missions [10]. As upcoming Lunar missions will often operate at low-altitude about 30 km to 100 km for scientific observations and mapping purposes, the low-altitude orbital constellations could be employed to create an ad-hoc Lunar PNT system. However, several issues must be addressed, such as the instability of these orbits, which often require maintenance or are only suitable for short-duration missions, operating for fewer than 90 days. Additionally, at an altitude of 100 km, the satellites have a limited period during which they are above the horizon and capable of providing PNT service to users. The implementation of a non-dedicated, ad-hoc Lunar navigation constellation facilitates on-demand PNT services. A preliminary study of ad-hoc Lunar PNT system was conducted using 21 spacecraft in 5,5000 km altitude frozen orbits to test its feasibility and a basic performance of orbital asset localization among ad-hoc Lunar constellations in small satellites format [10]. These swarm assets are designed for autonomous localization with minimal Earth interaction, reducing dependency on bandwidth and ground resources. The design in [10] demonstrated the feasibility of a decentralized PNT approach, specifically employing a DEKF approach for state estimation, which helps minimize onboard operating costs. The DEKF method distributes computation across individual satellites, which lightens the computational load while maintaining accuracy in orbit ephemeris and clock offsets, similar to centralized systems [11]. In a follow-on study [12], each spacecraft was limited to 2 communications antennae, forcing the selection of measurements and scheduling spacecraft activities to perform the measurements. A matching algorithm is implemented to select the best measurements and schedule position estimation updates. The decentralized localization performance is also investigated with increasing levels of network degradation for swarm assets considering the impact of intermittent and permanent communication failure, to demonstrate the robustness and fidelity of the decentralized Lunar PNT service [13]. This study confirmed that the ad-hoc PNT constellations in frozen orbit are highly robust and resilient to communication failures. However, unlike frozen orbit swarm assets, the low-altitude satellites have a limited ground view at an altitude of 100 km, where the ad-hoc Lunar constellation consists of 98 low-altitude satellites, evenly distributed across seven circular polar orbital planes, alongside two satellites in a frozen orbit at an altitude of 5,500 km (Figure 1). Therefore, the number of satellites visible to ground users is significantly limited in low-altitude orbit constellations. As each visibility of a spacecraft remains intact for only a few ticks before it moves out of the field of view, the ground user encounters challenges in maintaining continuous navigation service, resulting in sparse availability and provision of Lunar PNT system. Consequently, service availability is primarily restricted to the Lunar South Pole region (Figure 2). Given these limitations and concerns, the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets will be assessed in this study. We focus on the investigation of the localization performance of low-altitude swarm assets and ground users near the Lunar South Pole. The overall flow of the Lunar PNT simulation incorporates the DEKF approach of asset localization and the weighted least-squares approach in user localization (Figure 3). The autonomous Lunar PNT simulation is primarily implemented in MATLAB, where the DEKF based on the matching scheduler is implemented with Google’s OR-tools as a model builder and Gurobi optimization tool as a backend solver. The General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT) is utilized to generate ephemeris data for swarm assets, and accounts for satellite orbital details, mass, and perturbations like solar radiation pressure and drag coefficients. Each ephemeris dataset is produced in the Moon International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) inertial coordinate system. For state estimation, the distributed swarm assets rely on two-way Inter-Satellite Link (ISL) measurements, which involve tracking pseudoranges and relative velocities between visible satellites and anchor nodes during each observation. Numerical evaluations of the decentralized localization process are conducted to demonstrate the feasibility of the low-altitude PNT system in providing reliable navigation services. The main approach involves using DEKF and CEKF to localize 100 satellites in low-altitude constellations, where the CEKF is implemented to serve as a baseline for comparing the performance of distributed algorithms. In both cases, we evaluate ‘fully sampled’ measurements from all available assets, and ‘two ISL’ measurements when spacecraft are constrained to have only two antennas. We test four estimation techniques: CEKF fully sampled, CEKF two ISL, DEKF fully sampled, and DEKF two ISL filters. As the DEKF update cycle is comprised of network setup, communication, and computations, a global broadcast network and 2-way ISL network setup will take from 4 to 6 minutes as maximum [12]. In this simulation, the DEKF update cycle is set to 10 minutes, including a 4-minute latency for obtaining and computing the actual measurement updates. We experiment an increased update cycle to demonstrate the feasibility and evaluate the impact on localization performance using various tuning values for measurement noise covariances (Figures 4 and 5). By comparing centralized and decentralized approaches using a matching algorithm, we analyze the influence of cross-correlation factors in the covariance matrix, assuming 100% reliability of all assets and measurements. The increased frequency and the adjustments of tuning parameters reveal distinct error patterns between the two scenarios. The localization accuracy of the swarm assets and ground users is assessed by taking the median error across 100 assets and one ground user (84.9°S, 137.5°E) over 7-day simulation period (Table 1). Since the user localization accuracy is significantly affected by the performance of the swarm assets, it is crucial to maintain high localization accuracy within the swarm. This study will continue to explore decentralized filtering for autonomous LPNT operations, with further investigation of an 'iterative' matching approach which enumerates every valid matching pair, planned for the following month.

Yeji Kim↗

Testing of a Loop Heat Pipe with Two Evaporators and Two Condensers

Most existing Loop Heat Pipes (LHPs) consist of one single evaporator and one single condenser. LHPs with multiple evaporators will be very desirable for cooling multiple heat sources or a heat source with large thermal footprints. Extending the LHP technology to include multiple evaporators and multiple condensers faces some challenges, including the interaction between individual compensation chambers, operating temperature stability, and adaptability to rapid power and sink temperature transients. This paper describe extensive testing of an LHP with two evaporators and two condensers. Tests performed include start-up, power cycle, sink temperature cycle, reservoir temperature cycle, and capillary limit. Test results showed that the loop could operate successfully under various heat load and sink conditions. The loop operating temperature is a function of the total heat load, the heat load distribution between the two evaporators, and temperatures of the two condenser sinks. Under most conditions, only one reservoir contained two-phase fluid and the other reservoir was completely liquid filled. Moreover, control of the loop operating temperature could shift from one reservoir to the other as the test condition changed.

Ku, Jentung↗

Distributed Traffic Complexity Management by Preserving Trajectory Flexibility

In order to handle the expected increase in air traffic volume, the next generation air transportation system is moving towards a distributed control architecture, in which groundbased service providers such as controllers and traffic managers and air-based users such as pilots share responsibility for aircraft trajectory generation and management. This paper presents preliminary research investigating a distributed trajectory-oriented approach to manage traffic complexity, based on preserving trajectory flexibility. The underlying hypotheses are that preserving trajectory flexibility autonomously by aircraft naturally achieves the aggregate objective of avoiding excessive traffic complexity, and that trajectory flexibility is increased by collaboratively minimizing trajectory constraints without jeopardizing the intended air traffic management objectives. This paper presents an analytical framework in which flexibility is defined in terms of robustness and adaptability to disturbances and preliminary metrics are proposed that can be used to preserve trajectory flexibility. The hypothesized impacts are illustrated through analyzing a trajectory solution space in a simple scenario with only speed as a degree of freedom, and in constraint situations involving meeting multiple times of arrival and resolving conflicts.

Idris, Husni↗

Climate Shifts Within Major Agricultural Seasons for +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds: HAPPI Projections and AgMIP Modeling Scenarios

This study compares climate changes in major agricultural regions and current agricultural seasons associated with global warming of +1.5 or +2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions. It describes the generation of climate scenarios for agricultural modeling applications conducted as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments. Climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts project (HAPPI) are largely consistent with transient scenarios extracted from RCP4.5 simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). Focusing on food and agricultural systems and top-producing breadbaskets in particular, we distinguish maize, rice, wheat, and soy season changes from global annual mean climate changes. Many agricultural regions warm at a rate that is faster than the global mean surface temperature (including oceans) but slower than the mean land surface temperature, leading to regional warming that exceeds 0.5 °C between the +1.5 and +2.0 °C Worlds. Agricultural growing seasons warm at a pace slightly behind the annual temperature trends in most regions, while precipitation increases slightly ahead of the annual rate. Rice cultivation regions show reduced warming as they are concentrated where monsoon rainfall is projected to intensify, although projections are influenced by Asian aerosol loading in climate mitigation scenarios. Compared to CMIP5, HAPPI slightly underestimates the CO2 concentration that corresponds to the +1.5 °C World but overestimates the CO2 concentration for the +2.0 °C World, which means that HAPPI scenarios may also lead to an overestimate in the beneficial effects of CO2 on crops in the +2.0 °C World. HAPPI enables detailed analysis of the shifting distribution of extreme growing season temperatures and precipitation, highlighting widespread increases in extreme heat seasons and heightened skewness toward hot seasons in the tropics. Shifts in the probability of extreme drought seasons generally tracked median precipitation changes; however, some regions skewed toward drought conditions even where median precipitation changes were small. Together, these findings highlight unique seasonal and agricultural region changes in the +1.5 °C and +2.0 °C worlds for adaptation planning in these climate stabilization targets.

Alexander C. Ruane↗

Adaptation of two-dimensional transonic analysis code, TSFOIL, for use in modeling adaptive wall test sections

The effects of the elastic deformation of the wind tunnel wall held to a streamline-like shape were simulated numerically. The wall itself is simulated by a finite element model and is allowed to deform under the pressure loading developing in the wind tunnel with an airfoil model present. A modified version of the transonic analysis program, TSFOIL, is then used to determine the resulting flow field with the effects of the deformed wall included, the shape of the wall and the flow field. Once a result from a particular operating condition was obtained, the pressure distribution on the airfoil in the wind tunnel model is compared with solutions generated by TSFOIL in the free air mode.

Webb, J.↗

Solution-Adaptive Program for Computing 2D/Axi Viscous Flow

A computer program solves the Navier- Stokes equations governing the flow of a viscous, compressible fluid in an axisymmetric or two-dimensional (2D) setting. To obtain solutions more accurate than those generated by prior such programs that utilize regular and/or fixed computational meshes, this program utilizes unstructured (that is, irregular triangular) computational meshes that are automatically adapted to solutions. The adaptation can refine to regions of high change in gradient or can be driven by a novel residual minimization technique. Starting from an initial mesh and a corresponding data structure, the adaptation of the mesh is controlled by use of minimization functional. Other improvements over prior such programs include the following: (1) Boundary conditions are imposed weakly; that is, following initial specification of solution values at boundary nodes, these values are relaxed in time by means of the same formulations as those used for interior nodes. (2) Eigenvalues are limited in order to suppress expansion shocks. (3) An upwind fluctuation-splitting distribution scheme applied to inviscid flux requires fewer operations and produces less artificial dissipation than does a finite-volume scheme, leading to greater accuracy of solutions.

Wood, William A.↗

The Messy Aerosol Submodel MADE3 (v2.0b): Description and a Box Model Test

We introduce MADE3 (Modal Aerosol Dynamics model for Europe, adapted for global applications, 3rd generation), an aerosol dynamics submodel for application within the MESSy framework (Modular Earth Submodel System). MADE3 builds on the predecessor aerosol submodels MADE and MADE-in. Its main new features are the explicit representation of coarse particle interactions both with other particles and with condensable gases, and the inclusion of hydrochloric acid (HCl)chloride (Cl) partitioning between the gas and condensed phases. The aerosol size distribution is represented in the new submodel as a superposition of nine lognormal modes: one for fully soluble particles, one for insoluble particles, and one for mixed particles in each of three size ranges (Aitken, accumulation, and coarse mode size ranges). In order to assess the performance of MADE3 we compare it to its predecessor MADE and to the much more detailed particle-resolved aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC in a box model simulation of an idealized marine boundary layer test case. MADE3 and MADE results are very similar, except in the coarse mode, where the aerosol is dominated by sea spray particles. Cl is reduced in MADE3 with respect to MADE due to the HClCl partitioning that leads to Cl removal from the sea spray aerosol in our test case. Additionally, aerosol nitrate concentration is higher in MADE3 due to the condensation of nitric acid on coarse particles. MADE3 and PartMC- MOSAIC show substantial differences in the fine particle size distributions (sizes about 2 micrometers) that could be relevant when simulating climate effects on a global scale. Nevertheless, the agreement between MADE3 and PartMC-MOSAIC is very good when it comes to coarse particle size distribution, and also in terms of aerosol composition. Considering these results and the well-established ability of MADE in reproducing observed aerosol loadings and composition, MADE3 seems suitable for application within a global model.

Mixing state↗

Impacts of Non-Simultaneous Global Photospheric Magnetic Measurements on Coronal and Solar Wind Modeling

The intensity and arrival time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be significantly influenced by the background solar wind encountered as they propagate outward from the Sun into the interplanetary medium. In addition, solar energetic particles (SEPs) race ahead of CME shock fronts and flare regions along magnetic field lines largely determined by the background solar wind. Predicting the solar wind accurately is therefore critical for improving forecasts of CMEs, SEPs, and high-speed streams. Modeling of the corona and solar wind is challenging in general, as it is highly dependent on global photospheric magnetic field maps, which serve as the boundary conditions to all coronal models that drive solar wind models. Unfortunately, less than half of the Sun’s photospheric magnetic field is reliably measured from any given vantage point and thus it is common for the maps to have highly dated and unreliable measurements in them. While Solar Obiter (SolO) now provides for the first time the opportunity to have simultaneous measurements of nearly the entire surface magnetic field of Sun (e.g., when SolO/PHI measurements are combined with those from SDO/HMI), the required alignment to accomplish this occurs only occasionally. Further, coronal models are extremely sensitive to the strengths of the polar magnetic fields of the Sun, which remain poorly observed. Recently, efforts to mitigate this problem include using flux transport models such as the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model, which evolves the field forward in time using well known transport processes occurring on the Sun. However, it cannot account for the emergence of new magnetic flux without direct observations. The ESA VIGIL mission will eventually provide continuous observations from the L5, and the proposed SunCHASER mission will likewise do this at the L4 vantage point should it be funded. Ultimately, what is needed is a constellation of spacecraft distributed around the Sun with magnetographs that continuously measure the global surface magnetic field. In this talk, we discuss how the lack of simultaneous global measurements of the photospheric magnetic field adversely impacts the predictive performance of coronal and solar wind models.

C. Nick Arge↗

Kullback-Leibler information function and the sequential selection of experiments to discriminate among several linear models

A sequential adaptive experimental design procedure for a related problem is studied. It is assumed that a finite set of potential linear models relating certain controlled variables to an observed variable is postulated, and that exactly one of these models is correct. The problem is to sequentially design most informative experiments so that the correct model equation can be determined with as little experimentation as possible. Discussion includes: structure of the linear models; prerequisite distribution theory; entropy functions and the Kullback-Leibler information function; the sequential decision procedure; and computer simulation results. An example of application is given.

Sidik, S. M.↗

Concepts for on board satellite image registration. Volume 4: Impact of data set selection on satellite on board signal processing

The NASA NEEDS program goals present a requirement for on-board signal processing to achieve user-compatible, information-adaptive data acquisition. This volume addresses the impact of data set selection on data formatting required for efficient telemetering of the acquired satellite sensor data. More specifically, the FILE algorithm developed by Martin-Marietta provides a means for the determination of those pixels from the data stream effects an improvement in the achievable system throughput. It will be seen that based on the lack of statistical stationarity in cloud cover, spatial distribution periods exist where data acquisition rates exceed the throughput capability. The study therefore addresses various approaches to data compression and truncation as applicable to this sensor mission.

Ruedger, W. H.↗

Walking robot: A design project for undergraduate students

The objective of the University of Maryland walking robot project was to design, analyze, assemble, and test an intelligent, mobile, and terrain-adaptive system. The robot incorporates existing technologies in novel ways. The legs emulate the walking path of a human by an innovative modification of a crank-and-rocker mechanism. The body consists of two tripod frames connected by a turning mechanism. The two sets of three legs are mounted so as to allow the robot to walk with stability in its own footsteps. The computer uses a modular hardware design and distributed processing. Dual-port RAM is used to allow communication between a supervisory personal computer and seven microcontrollers. The microcontrollers provide low-level control for the motors and relieve the processing burden on the PC.

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