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At least 811 records · Page 45

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NASA NTRS2012

A Briefing on Metrics and Risks for Autonomous Decision-Making in Aerospace Applications

Significant technology advances will enable future aerospace systems to safely and reliably make decisions autonomously, or without human interaction. The decision-making may result in actions that enable an aircraft or spacecraft in an off-nominal state or with slightly degraded components to achieve mission performance and safety goals while reducing or avoiding damage to the aircraft or spacecraft. Some key technology enablers for autonomous decision-making include: a continuous state awareness through the maturation of the prognostics health management field, novel sensor development, and the considerable gains made in computation power and data processing bandwidth versus system size. Sophisticated algorithms and physics based models coupled with these technological advances allow reliable assessment of a system, subsystem, or components. Decisions that balance mission objectives and constraints with remaining useful life predictions can be made autonomously to maintain safety requirements, optimal performance, and ensure mission objectives. This autonomous approach to decision-making will come with new risks and benefits, some of which will be examined in this paper. To start, an account of previous work to categorize or quantify autonomy in aerospace systems will be presented. In addition, a survey of perceived risks in autonomous decision-making in the context of piloted aircraft and remotely piloted or completely autonomous unmanned autonomous systems (UAS) will be presented based on interviews that were conducted with individuals from industry, academia, and government.

Frost, Susan↗

NASA NTRS2003

The Impact of Total Liberalization of Domestic Air Transport on the Social Welfare and on the Dynamic of Competition: Comparison Between the United States and the European Union

Since the lst of April 1997 date of the implementation of the third package of the liberalization, air transport, within the european Union has become totally liberalized. In the United States the deregulation of domestic air traffic was earlier and faster since it took place in October 1978 after the adoption of the only act of deregulation. This paper, in its first part, deals with the liberalization of the industry of air traffic in the european union. After a comparison with US system based on market demand, fare policy and network restrictions, we present our descriptive results coming from treatments on the OAG data. These results present several aspects such as the evolution of the competitive structure of the intra-european routes, the level of airport dominance and the growth of hub structure. The second part of the paper presents models of entry in the airline industry. As profitability" of route flown explains correctly decisions taken by airlines to serve or not a route, the paper focuses on the specification and the estimation of the determinants of city, pair profitability in the european union. Treatments done on the OAG data show a rapid development of leasing space agreement (partial and total) and code sharing practices between 1995 and 2000 in Europe that's why we differentiate first between the two type of competitive strategy of entry(direct entry and leasing space agreement) and second between the competitive strategy of entry and the alliance strategy of code sharing. So the estimation of model will be able to answer the question if the european air transport market is contestable and in case not to see if the decision of entry is more directed by the level of airport dominance (as in the domestic United States market)or essentially by the competitive structure of the routes. We try to explain the nature of entry(directleasing or code sharing) by the different levels of these two determinants.

Zbidi, Karim↗

NASA NTRS2021

A New Approach to Evaluate and Reduce Uncertainty of Model-Based Biodiversity Projections for Conservation Policy Formulation

Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this article, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities.

Bonnie J E Myers↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

L'Ralph's Advanced Thermal Model Correlation Using Veritrek

Thermal model correlation uses data from thermal balance tests to better estimate uncertain input parameter values. During the correlation process, input parameters are modified in an iterative manner which can become computationally expensive since this requires that the high-fidelity thermal model be run for each iteration. Depending on the number of thermal balance test points there can be many sets of correlation parameters that satisfy correlation criteria; and having enough data to ascertain the best set of correlation parameters to use, further increases the computational expense. Reduced-order models (ROMs) provide computationally efficient surrogates of high-fidelity models and are often built to reduce development cycle times and cost. By leveraging the speed of reduced-order models and the Correlation Analysis feature in the Veritrek software, the typical computational expense of a traditional thermal model correlation process can be significantly reduced and having access to hundreds of thousands of iteration results provides an advanced means of intelligently determining the best set of correlation parameters to use. The L’Ralph thermal team at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center explored the use of the Veritrek software for their thermal model correlation efforts. The ROM that was created allowed for the variation of 15 input parameters to match 70 temperature sensor readouts from 3 thermal balance plateus and required 125 runs of the high-fidelity Thermal Desktop® model to generate a ROM that could predict the detailed model’s results to within 0.2 K (RMS). The ROM was then used to find dozens of plausible correlation parameter values based on L’Ralph instrument test data within a few seconds. By providing several plausible correlation parameter combinations, Veritrek allowed the thermal team to explore different uncertain parameter value combinations and provided insight into how deterministic each input parameter was. This allowed for a more confident decision on the best set of correlation parameters to use, compared to traditional model correlation techniques. In this presentation, the L’Ralph thermal team will be presenting their experience with the Veritrek software and how the software was utilized to provide additional insights during the correlation process.

Daniel Bae↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

L'Ralph's Advanced Thermal Model Correlation Using Veritrek

Daniel Bae↗

NASA NTRS1988

Dynamic remapping of parallel computations with varying resource demands

The issue of deciding when to invoke a global load remapping mechanism is studied. Such a decision policy must effectively weigh the costs of remapping against the performance benefits, and should be general enough to apply automatically to a wide range of computations. The authors propose a general mapping decision heuristic, then study its effectiveness and its anticipated behavior on two very different models of load evolution. Assuming only that the remapping cost is known, this policy dynamically minimizes system degradation (including the cost of remapping) for each computation step. This policy is quite simple, choosing to remap when the first local minimum in the degradation function is detected. Simulations show that the decision obtained provides significantly better performance than that achieved by never remapping. The authors also observe that the average intermapping frequency is quite close to the optimal fixed remapping frequency.

Nicol, David M.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Customizing NASA's Earth Science Research Products for addressing MENA Water Challenges

As projected by IPCC 2007 report, by the end of this century the Middle East North Mrica (MENA) region is projected to experience an increase of 3 C to 5 C rise in mean temperatures and a 20% decline in precipitation. This poses a serious problem for this geographic zone especially when majority of the hydrological consumption is for the agriculture sector and the remaining amount is for domestic consumption. In late 2011, the World Bank, USAID and NASA have joined hands to establishing integrated, modem, up to date NASA developed capabilities for various countries in the MENA region for addressing water resource issues and adapting to climate change impacts for improved decision making for societal benefits. The main focus of this undertaking is to address the most pressing societal issues which can be modeled and solved by utilizing NASA Earth Science remote sensing data products and hydrological models. The remote sensing data from space is one of the best ways to study such complex issues and further feed into the decision support systems. NASA's fleet of Earth Observing satellites offer a great vantage point from space to look at the globe and provide vital signs necessary to maintain healthy and sustainable ecosystem. NASA has over fifteen satellites and thirty instruments operating on these space borne platforms and generating over 2000 different science products on a daily basis. Some of these products are soil moisture, global precipitation, aerosols, cloud cover, normalized difference vegetation index, land cover/use, ocean altimetry, ocean salinity, sea surface winds, sea surface temperature, ozone and atmospheric gasses, ice and snow measurements, and many more. All of the data products, models and research results are distributed via the Internet freely through out the world. This project will utilize several NASA models such as global Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) to generate hydrological states and fluxes in near real time. These LDAS products will then be further compared with other NASA satellite observations (MODIS, VIIRS, TRMM, etc.) and other discrete models to compare and optimize evapotranspiration, soil moisture and crop irrigation, drought assessment and water balance. The floods being a critical disaster in many of the MENA countries, NASA's global flood mapping and modeling framework (CREST) will be customized for country specific needs and delivered to the remote sensing organizations for their future use. Training is an important component under this activity and adequate level of training will be offered to build basic capacity to work with NASA provided data products, models for their future use. This paper provides a comprehensive introduction to NASA's Earth Science mission for understanding the behavior of our home Planet, projecting its health for future generations and applying research results solving societal issues.

Habib, Shahid↗

NASA NTRS1993

Cost model relationships between textile manufacturing processes and design details for transport fuselage elements

Textile manufacturing processes offer potential cost and weight advantages over traditional composite materials and processes for transport fuselage elements. In the current study, design cost modeling relationships between textile processes and element design details were developed. Such relationships are expected to help future aircraft designers to make timely decisions on the effect of design details and overall configurations on textile fabrication costs. The fundamental advantage of a design cost model is to insure that the element design is cost effective for the intended process. Trade studies on the effects of processing parameters also help to optimize the manufacturing steps for a particular structural element. Two methods of analyzing design detail/process cost relationships developed for the design cost model were pursued in the current study. The first makes use of existing databases and alternative cost modeling methods (e.g. detailed estimating). The second compares design cost model predictions with data collected during the fabrication of seven foot circumferential frames for ATCAS crown test panels. The process used in this case involves 2D dry braiding and resin transfer molding of curved 'J' cross section frame members having design details characteristic of the baseline ATCAS crown design.

Metschan, Stephen L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The NASA DEVELOP Model of Community Science & Engagement: Localizing Earth Science Information

The NASA DEVELOP Program conducts 10 week feasibility studies that apply Earth observation data to address community priorities and support informed decision making. Part of NASA’s Earth Action Capacity Building Program, DEVELOP builds skills in both participants ( recent graduates, and early/transitioning career professionals), who work on small interdisciplinary project teams, and partner organizations (state and local governments, federal agencies, non profit and for profit organizations, universities, and international organizations) that work closely with DEVELOP to design the project. Projects address a wide variety of environmental issues, such as disaster risk and resilience, air pollution, and the impact of urban development, with a growing number of projects exploring how satellite data can help inform decision making around environmental injustices. A subset of DEVELOP partner organizations are local municipalities or community led non profits, with the co production model serving as an effective engagement tool and an introduction for communities to engage in Earth science research and become familiar with satellite remote sensing. This presentation will highlight the DEVELOP co production model, community project use cases, and lessons learned in partnering with local communities.

Michael Pazmino↗

NASA NTRS1974

Chain pooling to minimize prediction errors in subset regression

The existing theory of subset regression is examined, taking into account optimality criteria, small experiments, nonlinear models, colinearities, and special techniques. Approaches based on chain pooling coupled with principal components regression are discussed, giving attention to a comparison of half-normal plotting with chain pooling, a procedure based on prior ordering, deletion under the F-test, the largest of a set of chi-square variates, and principal components regression and model deletion. The choice of a true (population) model for simulations is considered along with the evaluation of the decision procedure and suitable computer programs.

Holms, A. G.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Application of ride quality technology to predict ride satisfaction for commuter-type aircraft

A method was developed to predict passenger satisfaction with the ride environment of a transportation vehicle. This method, a general approach, was applied to a commuter-type aircraft for illustrative purposes. The effect of terrain, altitude and seat location were examined. The method predicts the variation in passengers satisfied for any set of flight conditions. In addition several noncommuter aircraft were analyzed for comparison and other uses of the model described. The method has advantages for design, evaluation, and operating decisions.

Jacobson, I. D.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Value of Landsat in urban water resources planning

The reported investigation had the objective to evaluate the utility of satellite multispectral remote sensing in urban water resources planning. The results are presented of a study which was conducted to determine the economic impact of Landsat data. The use of Landsat data to estimate hydrologic model parameters employed in urban water resources planning is discussed. A decision regarding an employment of the Landsat data has to consider the tradeoff between data accuracy and cost. Bayesian decision theory is used in this connection. It is concluded that computer-aided interpretation of Landsat data is a highly cost-effective method of estimating the percentage of impervious area.

Jackson, T. J.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Statistical considerations in design of spacelab experiments

After making an analysis of experimental error sources, statistical models were developed for the design and analysis of potential Space Shuttle experiments. Guidelines for statistical significance and/or confidence limits of expected results were also included. The models were then tested out on the following proposed Space Shuttle biomedical experiments: (1) bone density by computer tomography; (2) basal metabolism; and (3) total body water. Analysis of those results and therefore of the models proved inconclusive due to the lack of previous research data and statistical values. However, the models were seen as possible guides to making some predictions and decisions.

Robinson, J.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Earth Survey Applications Division

Accomplishments of research and data analysis conducted to study physical parameters and processes inside the Earth and on the Earth's surface, to define techniques and systems for remotely sensing the processes and measuring the parameters of scientific and applications interest, and the transfer of promising operational applications techniques to the user community of Earth resources monitors, managers, and decision makers are described. Research areas covered include: geobotany, magnetic field modeling, crustal studies, crustal dynamics, sea surface topography, land resources, remote sensing of vegetation and soils, and hydrological sciences. Major accomplishments include: production of global maps of magnetic anomalies using Magsat data; computation of the global mean sea surface using GEOS-3 and Seasat altimetry data; delineation of the effects of topography on the interpretation of remotely-sensed data; application of snowmelt runoff models to water resources management; and mapping of snow depth over wheat growing areas using Nimbus microwave data.

Carpenter, L.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Gravitational lensing limits on the cosmological constant in a flat universe

Inflationary cosmological theories predict, and some more general aesthetic criteria suggest, that the large-scale spatial curvature of the universe k should be accurately zero (i.e., flat), a condition which is satisfied when the universe's present mean density and the value of the cosmological constant Lambda have certain pairs of values. Available data on the frequency of multiple image-lensing of high-redshift quasars by galaxies suggest that the cosmological constant cannot make a dominant contribution to producing a flat universe. In particular, if the mean density of the universe is as small as the baryon density inferred from standard cosmic nucleosynthesis calculations or as determined from typical dynamical studies of galaxies and galaxy clusters, then a value of Lambda large enough to produce a k = 0 universe would result in a substantially higher frequency of multiple-image lensing of quasars than has been observed so far. Shortcomings of the available lens data and uncertainties concerning galaxy properties allow some possibility of escaping this conclusion, but systematic searches for a gravitational lenses and continuing investigations of galaxy mass distributions should soon provide decisive information. It is also noted that nonzero-curvature cosmological models can account for the observed frequency of galaxy-quasar lens systems and for a variety of other constraints.

Turner, Edwin L.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Adaptive Process Control with Fuzzy Logic and Genetic Algorithms

Researchers at the U.S. Bureau of Mines have developed adaptive process control systems in which genetic algorithms (GA's) are used to augment fuzzy logic controllers (FLC's). GA's are search algorithms that rapidly locate near-optimum solutions to a wide spectrum of problems by modeling the search procedures of natural genetics. FLC's are rule based systems that efficiently manipulate a problem environment by modeling the 'rule-of-thumb' strategy used in human decision-making. Together, GA's and FLC's possess the capabilities necessary to produce powerful, efficient, and robust adaptive control systems. To perform efficiently, such control systems require a control element to manipulate the problem environment, an analysis element to recognize changes in the problem environment, and a learning element to adjust to the changes in the problem environment. Details of an overall adaptive control system are discussed. A specific laboratory acid-base pH system is used to demonstrate the ideas presented.

Karr, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Direct adaptive performance optimization of subsonic transports: A periodic perturbation technique

Aircraft performance can be optimized at the flight condition by using available redundancy among actuators. Effective use of this potential allows improved performance beyond limits imposed by design compromises. Optimization based on nominal models does not result in the best performance of the actual aircraft at the actual flight condition. An adaptive algorithm for optimizing performance parameters, such as speed or fuel flow, in flight based exclusively on flight data is proposed. The algorithm is inherently insensitive to model inaccuracies and measurement noise and biases and can optimize several decision variables at the same time. An adaptive constraint controller integrated into the algorithm regulates the optimization constraints, such as altitude or speed, without requiring and prior knowledge of the autopilot design. The algorithm has a modular structure which allows easy incorporation (or removal) of optimization constraints or decision variables to the optimization problem. An important part of the contribution is the development of analytical tools enabling convergence analysis of the algorithm and the establishment of simple design rules. The fuel-flow minimization and velocity maximization modes of the algorithm are demonstrated on the NASA Dryden B-720 nonlinear flight simulator for the single- and multi-effector optimization cases.

Espana, Martin D.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Real-Time Adaptive Control Allocation Applied to a High Performance Aircraft

Abstract This paper presents the development and application of one approach to the control of aircraft with large numbers of control effectors. This approach, referred to as real-time adaptive control allocation, combines a nonlinear method for control allocation with actuator failure detection and isolation. The control allocator maps moment (or angular acceleration) commands into physical control effector commands as functions of individual control effectiveness and availability. The actuator failure detection and isolation algorithm is a model-based approach that uses models of the actuators to predict actuator behavior and an adaptive decision threshold to achieve acceptable false alarm/missed detection rates. This integrated approach provides control reconfiguration when an aircraft is subjected to actuator failure, thereby improving maneuverability and survivability of the degraded aircraft. This method is demonstrated on a next generation military aircraft Lockheed-Martin Innovative Control Effector) simulation that has been modified to include a novel nonlinear fluid flow control control effector based on passive porosity. Desktop and real-time piloted simulation results demonstrate the performance of this integrated adaptive control allocation approach.

Davidson, John B.↗