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At least 811 records · Page 45
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Geographic Shift and Environment Change of U.S. Tornado Activities in a Warming Climate

Even with ever-increasing societal interest in tornado activities engendering catastrophes of loss of life and property damage, the long-term change in the geographic location and environment of tornado activity centers over the last six decades (1954–2018), and its relationship with climate warming in the U.S., is still unknown or not robustly proved scientifically. Utilizing discriminant analysis, we show a statistically significant geographic shift of U.S. tornado activity center (i.e., Tornado Alley) under warming conditions, and we identify five major areas of tornado activity in the new Tornado Alley that were not identified previously. By contrasting warm versus cold years, we demonstrate that the shift of relative warm centers is coupled with the shifts in low pressure and tornado activity centers. The warm and moist air carried by low-level flow from the Gulf of Mexico combined with upward motion acts to fuel convection over the tornado activity centers. Employing composite analyses using high resolution reanalysis data, we further demonstrate that high tornado activities in the U.S. are associated with stronger cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity than low tornado activities, and the high tornado activities are coupled with stronger low-level wind shear, stronger upward motion, and higher convective available potential energy (CAPE) than low tornado activities. The composite differences between high-event and low-event years of tornado activity are identified for the first time in terms of wind shear, upward motion, CAPE, cyclonic circulation and baroclinicity, although some of these environmental variables favorable for tornado development have been discussed in previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Technological aspects in blanket design: Effects of micro-alloying and thermo-mechanical treatments of EUROFER97 type steels after neutron irradiation

Presently available data on neutron irradiation damage raise doubts on the feasibility of using EUROFER97 steel for a water-cooled starter blanket in a DEMO reactor, since the ductile-to-brittle transition temperature (DBTT) increases significantly for irradiation temperatures below 350°C. The additional DBTT shift caused by H and He transmutation can only be estimated based on very few results with isotopically tailored EUROFER97 steel. Conservative calculations show that the DBTT of EUROFER97 steel could exceed the operating temperature in water-cooled starter blankets within a relatively short time period. This paper presents results from a EUROfusion funded irradiation campaign that was performed in the High Flux Isotope Reactor at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The paper compares ten newly developed reduced activation ferritic-martensitic (RAFM) steels irradiated to a nominal dose of 2.5 dpa at 300°C. The post-irradiation experiments using Small Specimen Test Technology included hardness, tensile, and fracture mechanics tests combined with fractography and microstructure analysis are presented. Results show that micro-alloying EUROFER97-type steels influenced the mechanical properties but a dominating impact on irradiation damage resistance could not be identified. In contrast, specific thermo-mechanical treatments lead to better DBTT behavior. Discussion about irradiation response to heat treatment conditions is also given. Here, despite requiring data also at high dpa values, the results indicate that with these modified materials an increased lifetime and potentially also an increased operating temperature window can be achieved compared to EUROFER97.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Temporospatial shifts in the human gut microbiome and metabolome after gastric bypass surgery

Although the etiology of obesity is not well-understood, genetic, environmental, and microbiome elements are recognized as contributors to this rising pandemic. For morbid obesity, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) surgery alters the fecal microbiome, but data are sparse on temporal and spatial changes in the microbiome and metabolome. We characterized the structure and metabolism of the microbial communities in the gut lumen and on mucosal surfaces in morbidly obese individuals before and after RYGB surgery, and we compared our longitudinal cohort to a previously studied cross-sectional one. RYGB concurrently changed the gut microbiome and led to improvements of obesity comorbidities. Changes in the gut microbiome were reflected in the metabolome, including fermentation products and bile acids. The effects persisted 12 months post-surgery, and the microbiomes and metabolomes were similar to those found for the cross-sectional RYGB cohort. Thus, RYGB surgery had profound and persistent impacts on the intestinal microbiome and metabolome.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermodynamics and its prediction and CALPHAD modeling: Review, state of the art, and perspectives

Thermodynamics is a science concerning the state of a system, whether it is stable, metastable, or unstable, when interacting with its surroundings. The combined law of thermodynamics derived by Gibbs about 150 years ago laid the foundation of thermodynamics. In Gibbs combined law, the entropy production due to internal processes was not included, and the 2nd law was thus practically removed from the Gibbs combined law, so it is only applicable to systems under equilibrium, thus commonly termed as equilibrium or Gibbs thermodynamics. Gibbs further derived the classical statistical thermodynamics in terms of the probability of configurations in a system in the later 1800's and early 1900's. With the quantum mechanics (QM) developed in 1920's, the QM-based statistical thermodynamics was established and connected to classical statistical thermodynamics at the classical limit as shown by Landau in the 1940's. In 1960's the development of density functional theory (DFT) by Kohn and co-workers enabled the QM prediction of properties of the ground state of a system. On the other hand, the entropy production due to internal processes in non-equilibrium systems was studied separately by Onsager in 1930's and Prigogine and co-workers in the 1950's. In 1960's to 1970's the digitization of thermodynamics was developed by Kaufman in the framework of the CALculation of PHAse Diagrams (CALPHAD) modeling of individual phases with internal degrees of freedom. CALPHAD modeling of thermodynamics and atomic transport properties has enabled computational design of complex materials in the last 50 years. Our recently termed zentropy theory integrates DFT and statistical mechanics through the replacement of the internal energy of each individual configuration by its DFT-predicted free energy. The zentropy theory is capable of accurately predicting the free energy of individual phases, transition temperatures and properties of magnetic and ferroelectric materials with free energies of individual configurations solely from DFT-based calculations and without fitting parameters, and is being tested for other phenomena including superconductivity, quantum criticality, and black holes. Those predictions include the singularity at critical points with divergence of physical properties, negative thermal expansion, and the strongly correlated physics. Furthermore, those individual configurations may thus be considered as the genomic building blocks of individual phases in the spirit of the materials genome®. This has the potential to shift the paradigm of CALPHAD modeling from being heavily dependent on experimental inputs to becoming fully predictive with inputs solely from DFT-based calculations and machine learning models built on those calculations and existing experimental data through newly developed and future open-source tools. Furthermore, through the combined law of thermodynamics including the internal entropy production, it is shown that the kinetic coefficient matrix of independent internal processes is diagonal with respect to the conjugate potentials in the combined law, and the cross phenomena that the phenomenological Onsager flux and reciprocal relationships are due to the dependence of the conjugate potential of a molar quantity on nonconjugate molar quantities and other potentials, which can be predicted by the zentropy theory and CALPHAD modeling.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Experimental and computational kinetics study of the liquid-phase hydrogenation of C=C and C=O bonds

Solvent effects on adsorption equilibrium and reaction kinetics are evaluated for hydrogenation reactions catalyzed by Pd/alumina in a series of different solvents. Three reactants – cyclohexene, benzene and benzaldehyde – and three solvents – n-heptane (HEP), methylcyclohexane (MCHA), decalin (DL) – have been investigated. Kinetic analysis of hydrogenation of cyclohexene reveals that hydrogen adsorbs on different sites from those where cyclohexene and the solvents adsorb; however, the presence of hydrogen on these separate sites affects the heats of adsorption of the hydrocarbons. When the solvent is a weakly interacting linear alkane (HEP), the rate determining step of the reaction is the first hydrogenation of adsorbed cyclohexene. Furthermore, this conclusion is supported by DFT calculations that show a higher enthalpy barrier for the first hydrogenation than for the second, while statistical thermodynamics analysis validates the physical significance of the entropy of adsorption parameters derived from the kinetic fitting of experimental data. By contrast, with solvents such as MCHA and DL, which interact more strongly with the metal surface and compete for active sites with the reactant and the surface intermediate, the rate limiting step seems to shift to the second hydrogenation step.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Trion Formation Resolves Observed Peak Shifts in the Optical Spectra of Transition-Metal Dichalcogenides

Monolayer transition-metal dichalcogenides (ML-TMDs) have the potential to unlock novel photonic and chemical technologies if their optoelectronic properties can be understood and controlled. Yet, recent work has offered contradictory explanations for how TMD absorption spectra change with carrier concentration, fluence, and time. Here, we test our hypothesis that the large broadening and shifting of the strong band-edge features observed in optical spectra arise from the formation of negative trions. We do this by fitting an ab initio based, many-body model to our experimental electrochemical data. Our approach provides an excellent, global description of the potential-dependent linear absorption data. We further leverage our model to demonstrate that trion formation explains the nonmonotonic potential dependence of the transient absorption spectra, including through photoinduced derivative line shapes for the trion peak. Our results motivate the continued development of theoretical methods to describe cutting-edge experiments in a physically transparent way.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reanalysis of Water Withdrawal for Irrigation, Electric Power, and Public Supply Sectors in the Conterminous United States, 1950–2016

Accurately measuring water use by the economy is essential for developing reliable models of water resource availability. Indeed, these models rely on retrospective analyses that provide insights into shifting human population demands and adaptions to water shortages. However, accurate, methodologically consistent, empirically authentic, and spatiotemporally comprehensive historical datasets for water withdrawals are scarce. Herein, we present a reanalysis of annual resolution (1950–2016) historical data set on irrigation, electric power, and public supply water withdrawal within the conterminous United States (US) at the county-level, and, for power plants, at the site-level. To estimate electric power water use, we synthesized a historically comprehensive list of generators and historic patterns in generation across fuels, prime movers, and cooling technologies. Irrigation water use estimation required building a crop-demand model that utilized historical information on irrigated acreage for crops and golf courses, stage-specific crop water demand, and climate information. To estimate public water supply use, we developed a random forest model constructed from information on population, infrastructure, climate, and land cover. These estimates generally agree with total county and state water use information provided by the US Geological Survey (USGS) water use circular and estimates generated from independent studies for specific years. However, we also observed discrepancies between our estimates and USGS data that appear to be caused by inconsistencies in the methods used by the USGS's primary data sources at the state level over decades of data collection, highlighting the importance of reanalysis to yield spatiotemporally consistent and intercomparable estimates of water use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electricity consumption variation versus economic structure during COVID-19 on metropolitan statistical areas in the US

The outbreak of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in changes in productivity and daily life patterns, and as a result electricity consumption (EC) has also shifted. In this paper, we construct estimates of EC changes at the metropolitan level across the continental U.S., including total EC and residential EC during the initial two months of the pandemic. The total and residential data on the state level were broken down into the county level, and then metropolitan level EC estimates were aggregated from the counties included in each metropolitan statistical area (MSA). This work shows that the reduction in total EC is related to the shares of certain industries in an MSA, whereas regardless of the incidence level or economic structure, the residential sector shows a trend of increasing EC across the continental U.S. Since the MSAs account for 86% of the total population and 87% of the total EC of the continental U.S., the analytical result in this paper can provide important guidelines for future social-economic crises.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Cross-sectoral synergies for household energy savings: the role of electric vehicles, solar photovoltaics, and remote work

Over the past two decades, new technologies and behavioral shifts – such as electric vehicles, solar photovoltaics, and increased work-from-home practices – have reshaped residential electricity consumption and cost. However, their combined or synergistic impact on a household’s electricity cost remains unexplored. Leveraging data from the 2020 Residential Energy Consumption Survey, this study uses a structural equation model to unravel the extent to which the bundled adoption of EV-PV and stay-at-home decisions impact the total electricity cost of households. Results indicate that adopting both EVs and PV reduces electricity costs by 31% despite a 16% rise in consumption. When combined with stay-at-home practices, households still experience a 13% cost reduction, even with a 25% increase in electricity consumption. In conclusion, these findings suggest that financial savings are not merely a byproduct of adopting new technologies or behavioral changes but could serve as a key consideration for household contemplating engagement with multiple modern energy solutions simultaneously.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evidence of Two-Source King Plot Nonlinearity in Spectroscopic Search for New Boson

Optical precision spectroscopy of isotope shifts can be used to test for new forces beyond the standard model, and to determine basic properties of atomic nuclei. We measure isotope shifts on the highly forbidden 2 S 1/2 → 2 F 7/2 octupole transition of trapped 168,170, 172, 174, 176 Yb ions. When combined with previous measurements in Yb + and very recent measurements in Yb, the data reveal a King plot nonlinearity of up to 240σ. Furthermore, the trends exhibited by experimental data are explained by nuclear density functional theory calculations with the Fayans functional. We also find, with 4.3σ confidence, that there is a second distinct source of nonlinearity, and discuss its possible origin.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Decision Support System

Forest-based value chains involve decisions that begin at the landscape level and extend through processing, product manufacturing, and end-use markets. However, these decisions are often made independently across sectors, with limited visibility into how upstream resource conditions, incentives, and land management choices influence downstream production systems. In forested regions of the United States, wildfire risk, fragmented ownership, and uncertain markets for low-value residues complicate efforts to align extraction, processing, and utilization decisions. Without tools that link these stages, stakeholders may overlook opportunities to improve resource utilization or inadvertently shift impacts elsewhere in the value chain. This repository introduces a decision support system (DSS) that applies a system-impact-analysis approach to forest biomass residues and co-products. The framework integrates forest inventory data, geospatial resource assessments, and economic modeling to evaluate how biomass extraction decisions influence downstream product pathways. By linking regional feedstock avail- ability with market incentives and processing options—such as fuels, wood products, or soil amendments like biochar—the tool allows decision-makers to compare value chain outcomes across multiple utilization strategies.

Davis, Maggie [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time-series metagenomics reveals changing protistan ecology of a temperate dimictic lake

Abstract Background Protists, single-celled eukaryotic organisms, are critical to food web ecology, contributing to primary productivity and connecting small bacteria and archaea to higher trophic levels. Lake Mendota is a large, eutrophic natural lake that is a Long-Term Ecological Research site and among the world’s best-studied freshwater systems. Metagenomic samples have been collected and shotgun sequenced from Lake Mendota for the last 20 years. Here, we analyze this comprehensive time series to infer changes to the structure and function of the protistan community and to hypothesize about their interactions with bacteria. Results Based on small subunit rRNA genes extracted from the metagenomes and metagenome-assembled genomes of microeukaryotes, we identify shifts in the eukaryotic phytoplankton community over time, which we predict to be a consequence of reduced zooplankton grazing pressures after the invasion of a invasive predator (the spiny water flea) to the lake. The metagenomic data also reveal the presence of the spiny water flea and the zebra mussel, a second invasive species to Lake Mendota, prior to their visual identification during routine monitoring. Furthermore, we use species co-occurrence and co-abundance analysis to connect the protistan community with bacterial taxa. Correlation analysis suggests that protists and bacteria may interact or respond similarly to environmental conditions. Cryptophytes declined in the second decade of the timeseries, while many alveolate groups (e.g., ciliates and dinoflagellates) and diatoms increased in abundance, changes that have implications for food web efficiency in Lake Mendota. Conclusions We demonstrate that metagenomic sequence-based community analysis can complement existing efforts to monitor protists in Lake Mendota based on microscopy-based count surveys. We observed patterns of seasonal abundance in microeukaryotes in Lake Mendota that corroborated expectations from other systems, including high abundance of cryptophytes in winter and diatoms in fall and spring, but with much higher resolution than previous surveys. Our study identified long-term changes in the abundance of eukaryotic microbes and provided context for the known establishment of an invasive species that catalyzes a trophic cascade involving protists. Our findings are important for decoding potential long-term consequences of human interventions, including invasive species introduction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Joint iterative reconstruction and 3D rigid alignment for X-ray tomography

X-ray tomography is widely used for three-dimensional structure determination in many areas of science, from the millimeter to the nanometer scale. The resolution and quality of the 3D reconstruction is limited by the availability of alignment parameters that correct for the mechanical shifts of the sample or sample stage for the images that constitute a scan. In this paper we describe an algorithm for marker-free, fully automated and accurately aligned and reconstructed X-ray tomography data. Our approach solves the tomographic reconstruction jointly with projection data alignment based on a rigid-body deformation model. We demonstrate the robustness of our method on both synthetic phantom and experimental data and show that our method is highly efficient in recovering relatively large alignment errors without prior knowledge of a low resolution approximation of the 3D structure or a reasonable estimate of alignment parameters.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Learning genetic perturbation effects with variational causal inference

Advances in sequencing technologies have enhanced the understanding of gene regulation in cells. In particular, Perturb-seq has enabled high-resolution profiling of the transcriptomic response to genetic perturbations at the single-cell level. This understanding has implications in functional genomics and potentially for identifying therapeutic targets. Various computational models have been developed to predict perturbational effects. While deep learning models excel at interpolating observed perturbational data, they tend to overfit in the lack of enough data and may not generalize well to unseen perturbations. In contrast, mechanistic models, such as linear causal models based on gene regulatory networks, hold greater potential for extrapolation, as they encapsulate regulatory information that can predict responses to unseen perturbations. However, their application has been limited to small studies due to overly simplistic assumptions, making them less effective in handling noisy, large-scale single-cell data. We propose a hybrid approach that combines a mechanistic causal model with variational deep learning, termed Single Cell Causal Variational Autoencoder (SCCVAE). The mechanistic model employs a learned regulatory network to represent perturbational changes as shift interventions that propagate through the learned network. SCCVAE integrates this mechanistic causal model into a variational autoencoder, generating rich, comprehensive transcriptomic responses. Our results indicate that SCCVAE exhibits superior performance over current state-of-the-art baselines for extrapolating to predict unseen perturbational responses. Additionally, for the observed perturbations, the latent space learned by SCCVAE allows for the identification of functional perturbation modules and simulation of single-gene knockdown experiments of varying penetrance, presenting a robust tool for interpreting and interpolating perturbational responses at the single-cell level.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploring the Effects of Emplacement Conditions on Explosion P/S Ratios across Local to Regional Distances

High-frequency (~> 2 Hz) seismic P/S amplitude ratios are well-established as a discriminant to distinguish between natural earthquakes and underground explosions at regional distances (~200–1500 km). As research shifts toward identifying lower-yield events, work has begun to investigate the potential of this discriminant for use at local distances (<200 km), in which initial results raise questions about its effectiveness. Here, we utilize data from several chemical explosion experiment series at the Nevada National Security Site in southern Nevada in the United States to study explosion Pg/Lg ratios across the range of local to regional distances. Additionall, the experiments are conducted over differing emplacement conditions, with contrasting geologies and a variety of yields and depths of burial, including surface explosions. We first establish the similarities of Pg/Lg ratios from chemical explosions to those from historic nuclear tests and conclude that, as previous data have suggested, chemical explosion ratios are good proxies for nuclear tests. We then examine Pg/Lg ratios from the new experiment series as functions of distance, yield, depth of burial, and scaled depth of burial (SDOB). At far-local and regional distances, we observe consistently higher ratios from hard-rock explosions compared to ones in a weaker dry alluvium medium, consistent with prior regional distance results. No other trends with yield, depth of burial, or SDOB are strongly evident. Scatter in the observed ratios is very high, particularly at the shortest event-to-station distances, suggesting that small-scale path effects play a significant role. On average, the local distance explosion Pg/Lg ratios show remarkable consistency across all the variations in emplacement. Explosion source models will need to reproduce these results.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Aubourg, Eric [APC, Paris] (ORCID:000000025592023X↗
DOE OSTI2020

High-Dimensional Data-Driven Energy Optimization for MultiModal Transit Agencies

Transportation accounts for 28% of the total energy use in the United States and as such, it is responsible for immense environmental impact, including urban air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, and may pose a severe threat to energy security. As we encourage mode shift from personal vehicles to public transit, it is important to consider that public transit systems still require substantial amounts of energy; for example, public bus transit services in the U.S. are responsible for at least 19.7 million metric tons of CO 2 emission annually. As such it is absolutely crucial that we study the bottlenecks to energy efficiency in public transit and develop new algorithms that can help the public transit agencies, especially those that are still operating mixed fleets, which may consist of Electric vehicles (EVs), hybrids (HEVs), and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), optimize the operations by deciding which vehicles are assigned to serving which transit trips.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Source term method for binary neutron stars initial data

The initial condition problem for a binary neutron star system requires a Poisson equation solver for the velocity potential with a Neumann-like boundary condition on the surface of the star. Difficulties that arise in this boundary value problem are: (a) the boundary is not known a priori, but constitutes part of the solution of the problem; (b) various terms become singular at the boundary. In this work, we present a new method to solve the fluid Poisson equation for irrotational/spinning binary neutron stars. The advantage of the new method is that it does not require complex fluid surface fitted coordinates and it can be implemented in a Cartesian grid, which is a standard choice in numerical relativity calculations. This is accomplished by employing the source term method proposed by Towers, where the boundary condition is treated as a jump condition and is incorporated as additional source terms in the Poisson equation, which is then solved iteratively. The issue of singular terms caused by vanishing density on the surface is resolved with an additional separation that shifts the computation boundary to the interior of the star. We present two-dimensional tests to show the convergence of the source term method, and we further apply this solver to a realistic three-dimensional binary neutron star problem. By comparing our solution with the one coming from the initial data solver cocal, we demonstrate agreement to approximately 1%. We report our method can be used in other problems with non-smooth solutions like in magnetized neutron stars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗