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At least 811 records · Page 45

Microphysical Variability of Amazonian Deep Convective Cores Observed by CloudSat and Simulated by a Multi-Scale Modeling Framework

Recently launched cloud observing satellites provide information about the vertical structure of deep convection and its microphysical characteristics. In this study, CloudSat reflectivity data is stratified by cloud type, and the contoured frequency by altitude diagrams reveal a doublearc structure in deep convective cores (DCCs) above 8 km. This suggests two distinct hydrometeor modes (snow versus hail/graupel) controlling variability in reflectivity profiles. The day–night contrast in the double arcs is about four times larger than the wet–dry season contrast. Using QuickBeam, the vertical reflectivity structure of DCCs is analyzed in two versions of the Superparameterized Community Atmospheric Model (SP-CAM) with single-moment (no graupel) and double-moment (with graupel) microphysics. Doublemoment microphysics shows better agreement with observed reflectivity profiles; however, neither model variant captures the double-arc structure. Ultimately, the results show that simulating realistic DCC vertical structure and its variability requires accurate representation of ice microphysics, in particular the hail/graupel modes, though this alone is insufficient.

Dodson, J. Brant↗

Objective Structured Clinical Evaluation (OSCE) of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) Tool

BACKGROUND Objective Structured Clinical Evaluations (OSCEs) have long been established as a robust methodology for summative assessment of clinical skills and decision-making during medical education. The recent integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) into clinical decision-making processes has prompted the need for novel evaluation frameworks to assess the efficacy and reliability of AI clinical decision support system (CDSS) tools. This abstract outlines the process of quantitatively evaluating a novel CDSS (“Doc in a Box” Google 2024) trained on curated medical spaceflight data in the psychomotor domain as it interfaces with a human volunteer acting as the crew medical officer (CMO). PURPOSE The AI CDSS under review was developed as part of the Lunar Command and Control Interoperability (LuCCI) project, which is intended to address a gap in how Lunar Surface Systems (LSS) would interoperate across multiple programs, commercial partners, and international partners. The project objective is to define, prototype, integrate, and evaluate an interoperable lunar command, control, data, and software reference architecture to enable autonomy and informatics capability through common standards across LSS. A multi-modal AI-based CDSS compatible with Federated LSS will assist clinicians in diagnosing and managing complex medical conditions by providing evidence-based recommendations through predictive analytics. Given the critical role of decision-support as NASA continues to evolve its Earth-independent medical operations (EIMO), it is imperative to ensure that such AI tools perform reliably and align with clinical standards during progressive lunar and Martian exploration class missions. METHODS The OSCE framework, traditionally used for evaluating human clinicians, was adapted to assess the AI tool's decision-making capabilities in simulated clinical scenarios. In this adapted OSCE, the AI CDSS was tested across a series of structured clinical scenarios designed to mimic real-life spaceflight patient cases. These scenarios included a range of conditions and complexities, allowing for comprehensive assessment of the tool's performance. Key evaluation metrics included accuracy of diagnosis, timeliness of decision-making, and appropriate recommendations for therapies. The OSCE was scored by human physician evaluators who assessed the AI's recommendations in comparison with expert clinicians' medical decision making to ensure alignment with best practices and the standard of care. RESULTS Preliminary results indicate that the AI CDSS demonstrated high accuracy in diagnostic recommendations and decision support across various scenarios. However, certain limitations were noted, such as occasional discrepancies in handling complex or nuanced cases that required a more contextual understanding. Additionally, the tool scored higher on the diagnostic portion of the rubric, with lower scores in the therapeutic recommendations. These findings highlight the importance of continuous refinement and validation of AI tools through rigorous evaluation frameworks like the OSCE. The adaptation of OSCEs for AI tools presents several advantages, including a structured and reproducible approach to evaluation, the ability to test AI systems in diverse clinical scenarios, and the opportunity to benchmark AI performance against established clinical standards to permit charting of future progress as aerospace medicine evolves as a discipline. Remaining challenges include ensuring that these evaluations capture the full spectrum of clinical decision-making scenarios that will be confronted by CMOs during missions and adequately reflecting real-world variability of the austere spaceflight environment. CONCLUSION Employing OSCEs to evaluate AI clinical decision support tools offers a promising approach to validating their clinical utility and efficacy. This methodology not only provides insights into the tool's performance but also fosters ongoing improvement and alignment with standard of care practices. Future research should focus on refining these evaluation processes and addressing limitations to enhance the integration of AI tools in clinical spaceflight settings. REFERENCES Scott S, Hearns V, Barker MA. Testing Clinical Skills: A Look at the OSCE and USMLE Clinical Skills Exams. S D Med. 2019 Oct;72(10):451-453. Majumder MAA, Kumar A, Krishnamurthy K, Ojeh N, Adams OP, Sa B. An evaluative study of objective structured clinical examination (OSCE): students and examiners perspectives. Adv Med Educ Pract. 2019 Jun 5;10:387-397. Karam VY, Park YS, Tekian A, Youssef N. Evaluating the validity evidence of an OSCE: results from a new medical school. BMC Med Educ. 2018 Dec 20;18(1):313.

Ariana M Nelson↗

Visual Inference Programming

The goal of visual inference programming is to develop a software framework data analysis and to provide machine learning algorithms for inter-active data exploration and visualization. The topics include: 1) Intelligent Data Understanding (IDU) framework; 2) Challenge problems; 3) What's new here; 4) Framework features; 5) Wiring diagram; 6) Generated script; 7) Results of script; 8) Initial algorithms; 9) Independent Component Analysis for instrument diagnosis; 10) Output sensory mapping virtual joystick; 11) Output sensory mapping typing; 12) Closed-loop feedback mu-rhythm control; 13) Closed-loop training; 14) Data sources; and 15) Algorithms. This paper is in viewgraph form.

Wheeler, Kevin↗

Supersonic Wing Optimization Using SpaRibs

This research investigates the advantages of using curvilinear spars and ribs, termed SpaRibs, to design a supersonic aircraft wing-box in comparison to the use of classic design concepts that employ straight spars and ribs. The objective is to achieve a more efficient load-bearing mechanism and to passively control the deformation of the structure under the flight loads. Moreover, the use of SpaRibs broadens the design space and allows for natural frequencies and natural mode shape tailoring. The SpaRibs concept is implemented in a new optimization MATLAB-based framework referred to as EBF3SSWingOpt. This optimization scheme performs both the sizing and the shaping of the internal structural elements, connecting the optimizer with the analysis software. The shape of the SpaRibs is parametrically defined using the so called Linked Shape method. Each set of SpaRibs is placed in a one by one square domain of the natural space. The set of curves is subsequently transformed in the physical space for creating the wing structure geometry layout. The shape of each curve of each set is unique; however, mathematical relations link the curvature in an effort to reduce the number of design variables. The internal structure of a High Speed Commercial Transport aircraft concept developed by Boeing is optimized subjected to stress, subsonic flutter and supersonic flutter constraints. The results show that the use of the SpaRibs allows for the reduction of the aircraft's primary structure weight without violating the constraints. A weight reduction of about 15 percent is observed.

Locatelli, David↗

Engineering Design Tools for Shape Memory Alloy Actuators: CASMART Collaborative Best Practices and Case Studies

The primary goal of the Consortium for the Advancement of Shape Memory Alloy Research and Technology (CASMART) is to enable the design of revolutionary applications based on shape memory alloy (SMA) technology. In order to help realize this goal and reduce the development time and required experience for the fabrication of SMA actuation systems, several modeling tools have been developed for common actuator types and are discussed herein along with case studies, which highlight the capabilities and limitations of these tools. Due to their ability to sustain high stresses and recover large deformations, SMAs have many potential applications as reliable, lightweight, solid-state actuators. Their advantage over classical actuators can also be further improved when the actuator geometry is modified to fit the specific application. In this paper, three common actuator designs are studied: wires, which are lightweight, low-profile, and easily implemented; springs, which offer actuation strokes upwards of 200 at reduced mechanical loads; and torque tubes, which can provide large actuation forces in small volumes and develop a repeatable zero-load actuation response (known as the two-way shape memory effect). The modeling frameworks, which have been implemented in the design tools, are developed for each of these frequently used SMA actuator types. In order to demonstrate the versatility and flexibility of the presented design tools, as well as validate their modeling framework, several design challenges were completed. These case studies include the design and development of an active hinge for the deployment of a solar array or foldable space structure, an adaptive solar array deployment and positioning system, a passive air temperature controller for regulation flow temperatures inside of a jet engine, and a redesign of the Corvette active hatch, which allows for pressure equalization of the car interior. For each of the presented case studies, a prototype or proof-of-concept was fabricated and the experimental results and lessons learned are discussed. This analysis presents a collection of CASMART collaborative best practices in order to allow readers to utilize the available design tools and understand their modeling principles. These design tools, which are based on engineering models, can provide first-order optimal designs and are a basic and efficient method for either demonstrating design feasibility or refining design parameters. Although the design and integration of an SMA-based actuation system always requires application- and environment-specific engineering considerations, common modeling tools can significantly reduce the investment required for actuation system development and provide valuable engineering insight.

Design tools↗

Impact Experiments into Granular Targets Containing Solitary Blocks of Varying Strength and Size

Crater scaling relationships provide a means to correlate dimensions of laboratory-scale impact experiments to naturally formed craters at planetary scales. For relatively larger impact events, where gravity is the dominant arresting force against crater growth, these scaling relations are comparatively simple. For smaller craters, however, the target properties have increasing influence over the cratering process. Further complexities are easily envisaged when considering realistic surfaces that contain small-scale heterogeneities in cohesive strength, density, porosity, friction, as these properties will each have unequal effects on the resultant crater morphometry. Even when produced under controlled laboratory conditions, understanding (and controlling) the entire relevant parameter space is daunting, and deconvolution of the relevant contributors can be complicated even in the best-case scenario. To this end, we have begun an extensive series of impact experiments that will provide a nascent framework that will aid in the interpretation of craters observed on complex natural surfaces throughout the solar system. To start with the simplest configuration, experiments were performed with cylindrical PVC buckets that were filled with quartz sand and contained a single cubic block of synthetic sandstone. The blocks varied in size (14-33 mm) and unconfined compressive strength (0.5-7.4 MPa) and were placed in/on the sand along the trajectory of the incoming impactor and buried to different depths. All experiments were conducted using the vertical gun located in the Experimental Impact Lab at NASA Johnson Space Center with alumina projectiles that were accelerated to ~1.53 km s^-1 under a vacuum of 1 torr. After the impact, target containers were removed from the chamber are morphometric data were extracted by using a Peel 2 3D-scanner in combination with the open-source software, CloudCompare. Initial results show that block strength is a secondary effect on crater diameter and depth, but when at least one edge of the block is exposed and the surface (partial burial) the strength will dictate the number of surviving block fragments around the crater, as well as how much disrupted block material is retained within the crater walls.

Christopher J. Cline II↗

A NASA-Air Force Precipitation Analysis for Near-Real-Time Operations

This article describes a new precipitation analysis algorithm developed by NASA for time-sensitive operations at the United States Air Force. Implemented as part of the Land Information System—a land modeling and data assimilation software framework—this NASA–Air Force Precipitation Analysis (NAFPA) combines numerical weather prediction model outputs with rain gauge measurements and satellite estimates to produce global, gridded 3-h accumulated precipitation fields at approximately 10-km resolution. Input observations are subjected to quality control checks before being used by the Bratseth analysis algorithm that converges to optimal interpolation. NAFPA assimilates up to 3.5 million observations without artificial data thinning or selection. To evaluate this new approach, a multiyear reanalysis is generated and intercompared with eight alternative precipitation products across the contiguous United States, Africa, and the monsoon region of eastern Asia. NAFPA yields superior accuracy and correlation over low-latency (up to 14 h) alternatives (numerical weather prediction and satellite retrievals), and often outperforms high-latency (up to 3.5 months) products, although the details for the latter vary by region and product. The development of NAFPA offers a high-quality, near-real-time product for use in meteorological, land surface, and hydrological research and applications.

Africa↗

A Framework for Integrated Component and System Analyses of Instabilities

Instabilities associated with fluid handling and operation in liquid rocket propulsion systems and test facilities usually manifest themselves as structural vibrations or some form of structural damage. While the source of the instability is directly related to the performance of a component such as a turbopump, valve or a flow control element, the associated pressure fluctuations as they propagate through the system have the potential to amplify and resonate with natural modes of the structural elements and components of the system. In this paper, the authors have developed an innovative multi-level approach that involves analysis at the component and systems level. The primary source of the unsteadiness is modeled with a high-fidelity hybrid RANS/LES based CFD methodology that has been previously used to study instabilities in feed systems. This high fidelity approach is used to quantify the instability and understand the physics associated with the instability. System response to the driving instability is determined through a transfer matrix approach wherein the incoming and outgoing pressure and velocity fluctuations are related through a transfer (or transmission) matrix. The coefficients of the transfer matrix for each component (i.e. valve, pipe, orifice etc.) are individually derived from the flow physics associated with the component. A demonstration case representing a test loop/test facility comprised of a network of elements is constructed with the transfer matrix approach and the amplification of modes analyzed as the instability propagates through the test loop.

Ahuja, Vineet↗

A model for the human's use of visual field cues in nap-of-the-Earth flight

A simple model is developed which describes the manner in which the human pilot may use visual field cues in controlling a vehicle in nap-of-the earth flight. The model is based upon the feedforward of information obtained from streamer patterns in the visual field to the inner-most loop of a multi-loop pilot/vehicle model. In this framework, the model is a logical extension of pursuit and preview models of the human operator which have appeared in the literature. Simulation and flight test data involving low-level helicopter flight tasks are applied to model development and validation.

Hess, R. A.↗

Real-time qualitative reasoning for telerobotic systems

This paper discusses the sensor-based telerobotic driving of a car in a-priori unknown environments using 'human-like' reasoning schemes implemented on custom-designed VLSI fuzzy inferencing boards. These boards use the Fuzzy Set theoretic framework to allow very vast (30 kHz) processing of full sets of information that are expressed in qualitative form using membership functions. The sensor-based and fuzzy inferencing system was incorporated on an outdoor test-bed platform to investigate two control modes for driving a car on the basis of very sparse and imprecise range data. In the first mode, the car navigates fully autonomously to a goal specified by the operator, while in the second mode, the system acts as a telerobotic driver's aid providing the driver with linguistic (fuzzy) commands to turn left or right, speed up, slow down, stop, or back up depending on the obstacles perceived by the sensors. Indoor and outdoor experiments with both modes of control are described in which the system uses only three acoustic range (sonar) sensor channels to perceive the environment. Sample results are presented that illustrate the feasibility of developing autonomous navigation modules and robust, safety-enhancing driver's aids for telerobotic systems using the new fuzzy inferencing VLSI hardware and 'human-like' reasoning schemes.

Pin, Eancois G.↗

Automated Target Planning for FUSE Using the SOVA Algorithm

The SOVA algorithm was originally developed under the Resilient Systems and Operations Project of the Engineering for Complex Systems Program from NASA s Aerospace Technology Enterprise as a conceptual framework to support real-time autonomous system mission and contingency management. The algorithm and its software implementation were formulated for generic application to autonomous flight vehicle systems, and its efficacy was demonstrated by simulation within the problem domain of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle autonomous flight management. The approach itself is based upon the precept that autonomous decision making for a very complex system can be made tractable by distillation of the system state to a manageable set of strategic objectives (e.g. maintain power margin, maintain mission timeline, and et cetera), which if attended to, will result in a favorable outcome. From any given starting point, the attainability of the end-states resulting from a set of candidate decisions is assessed by propagating a system model forward in time while qualitatively mapping simulated states into margins on strategic objectives using fuzzy inference systems. The expected return value of each candidate decision is evaluated as the product of the assigned value of the end-state with the assessed attainability of the end-state. The candidate decision yielding the highest expected return value is selected for implementation; thus, the approach provides a software framework for intelligent autonomous risk management. The name adopted for the technique incorporates its essential elements: Strategic Objective Valuation and Attainability (SOVA). Maximum value of the approach is realized for systems where human intervention is unavailable in the timeframe within which critical control decisions must be made. The Far Ultraviolet Spectroscopic Explorer (FUSE) satellite, launched in 1999, has been collecting science data for eight years.[1] At its beginning of life, FUSE had six gyros in two IRUs and four reaction wheels. Over time through various failures, the satellite has been left with one reaction wheel on the vehicle skew axis and two gyros. To remain operational, a control scheme has been implemented using the magnetic torque rods and the remaining momentum wheel.[2] As a consequence, there are attitude regions where there is insufficient torque authority to overcome environmental disturbances (e.g. gravity gradient torques). The situation is further complicated by the fact that these attitude regions shift inertially with time as the spacecraft moves through earth s magnetic field during the course of its orbit. Under these conditions, the burden of planning targets and target-to-target slew maneuvers has increased significantly since the beginning of the mission.[3] Individual targets must be selected so that the magnetic field remains roughly aligned with the skew wheel axis to provide enough control authority to the other two orthogonal axes. If the field moves too far away from the skew axis, the lack of control authority allows environmental torques to pull the satellite away from the target and can potentially cause it to tumble. Slew maneuver planning must factor the stability of targets at the beginning and end, and the torque authority at all points along the slew. Due to the time varying magnetic field geometry relative to any two inertial targets, small modifications in slew maneuver timing can make large differences in the achievability of a maneuver.

Heatwole, Scott↗

Intelligent UAS Sense-and-Avoid Utilizing Global Constraints

Sense-and-avoid (SAA) is a critical research topic for enabling the operation of Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) in civilian airspace. SAA involves two planning related problems: 1) plan-recognition to predict the future trajectory of nearby aircraft, and 2) path planning to avoid conflicts with nearby aircraft that pose a threat. We have designed and built components of a novel intelligent sense-and-avoid (iSAA) reasoning framework that takes into account information about aircraft type, transponder code, communications, local routes, airports, airspace, terrain, and weather to more accurately predict near- and medium-term trajectories of nearby aircraft. By using this additional information both the on-board control software and the ground-based UAS operator can make more informed, intelligent decisions to effectively predict and avoid conflicts and maintain separation. While this capability benefits all categories of UASs operating under both Instrument Flight Rules (IFR) and Visual Flight Rules (VFR), it is absolutely essential for allowing smaller UASs to operate VFR at low altitude in uncontrolled airspace for operations such as survey work, wildlife tracking, aerial photography, utilities inspection, crop dusting, and package delivery.

unmanned aircraft systems↗

Inverse Text Normalization of Air Traffic Control System Command Center Planning Telecon Transcriptions

We present a hybrid neural network and rule-based Inverse Text Normalization (ITN) method for domains containing unique technical phraseology, specifically ATCSCC planning telecon audio transcriptions. The Air Traffic Control System Command Center (ATCSCC) hosts bihourly planning telephone conferences (or planning telecons) to ensure smooth operations within the National Airspace (NAS). Access to both live and post meeting transcripts of this speech audio would enable quick review of meetings. ITN is the process of converting un-formatted "raw'' speech-to-text transcripts into a human (expert) readable written form. Our hybrid ITN framework utilizes a neural network to format conversational English, and rule-based methods to format domain-specific aviation text. With a preliminary overall Word Error Rate with Punctuation and Capitalization (WER PC) of 8.26, we show that this method has vast potential in being applied to ATCSCC planning telecon audio and other audio/text based data available in ATM.

Air Traffic Management↗

Ranges of Applicability for the Continuum-beam Model in the Constitutive Analysis of Carbon Nanotubes: Nanotubes or Nano-beams?

Ranges of validity for the continuum-beam model, the length-scale effects and continuum assumptions are analyzed in the framework of scaling analysis of NT structure. Two coupled criteria for the applicability of the continuum model are presented. Scaling analysis of NT buckling and geometric parameters (e.g., diameter and length) is carried out to determine the key non-dimensional parameters that control the buckling strains and modes of NT buckling. A model applicability map, which represents two classes of NTs, is constructed in the space of non-dimensional parameters. In an analogy with continuum mechanics, a mechanical law of geometric similitude is presented for two classes of beam-like NTs having different geometries. Expressions for the critical buckling loads and strains are tailored for the distinct groups of NTs and compared with the data provided by the molecular dynamics simulations. Implications for molecular dynamics simulations and the NT-based scanning probes are discussed.

Harik, Vasyl Michael↗

Incorporating JULES into NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and Investigations of Land-Atmosphere Coupling

NASA's Land Information System (LIS; lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling and data assimilation framework developed over the past decade with the goal of integrating satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. LIS features a high performance and flexible design, and operates on an ensemble of land surface models for extension over user-specified regional or global domains. The extensible interfaces of LIS allow the incorporation of new domains, land surface models (LSMs), land surface parameters, meteorological inputs, data assimilation and optimization algorithms. In addition, LIS has also been demonstrated for parameter estimation and uncertainty estimation, and has been coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. A visiting fellowship is currently underway to implement JULES into LIS and to undertake some fundamental science on the feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. An overview of the LIS system, features, and sample results will be presented in an effort to engage the community in the potential advantages of LIS-JULES for a range of applications. Ongoing efforts to develop a framework for diagnosing land-atmosphere coupling will also be presented using the suite of LSM and PBL schemes available in LIS and WRF along with observations from the U. S .. Southern Great Plains. This methodology provides a potential pathway to study factors controlling local land-atmosphere coupling (LoCo) using the LIS-WRF system, which will serve as a testbed for future experiments to evaluate coupling diagnostics within the community.

Santanello, Joseph↗

Pointing Error Budget Development and Methodology on the Psyche Project

The Psyche mission was selected by NASA as the 14th mission in the Discovery Program in 2017. The Psyche spacecraft utilizes solar electric propulsion, and will journey to the asteroid (16) Psyche during a 3.5 year trajectory after its planned 2022 launch. The spacecraft instrument suite includes a magnetometer, a multispectral imager, a gamma ray neutron spectrometer, and an X-band radio telecommunications system. It also includes the Deep Space Optical Communication technical demonstration. These instruments along with other spacecraft components require pointing accuracy to meet their scientific and engineering performance requirements. Early on in the project development, the team established a methodology by which pointing accuracy (knowledge and control) is analyzed against the system requirements by means of pointing error budgets and requirement allocations. A margin policy was implemented to ensure the instrument and engineering component pointing accuracy requirements will be met during verification and in flight. Psyche’s pointing management framework defines detailed rationales for the system and subsystem error allocations of the top level pointing accuracy requirements, with sufficient project level pointing margin, and supports end-to-end pointing requirement verification. This paper will present an overview of the Psyche project’s pointing error budget development process, and discuss the rationale behind the methodology. Psyche’s pointing budget methodology integrates best practices and lessons learned from heritage missions, while focusing on the specific needs of the Psyche spacecraft and its science instruments. Key challenges in the pointing error budget development will be reviewed, and a deep dive into two key Psyche pointing budgets are presented. The systems engineering of Psyche’s pointing budget methodology outlined in this paper will serve as a resource for future deep space missions.

Lai, Peter↗

Evaluating GXS Impact in the Context of International Coordination

The proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) program plans to include a hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounder on its central satellite. Expected to launch in the mid-2030s, the GeoXO Sounder (GXS) will join international counterparts in a geostationary orbit. Ahead of launch, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) assessed the potential effectiveness of GXS both as a single GEO IR sounder and as part of a global ring of such instruments, including those already being built by international agencies. Using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework, GXS was assessed from a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) perspective. The ability of GXS, both alone and as part of a global ring of GEO sounders, to improve weather prediction of thermodynamic variables was evaluated globally and regionally. Compared to a control, GXS dominated regional analysis and forecast improvements, and contributed significantly to global increases in forecast skill. However, more sustained global improvements on the order of 4 days rely on international partnerships. Using the FSOI metric over CONUS, the GXS observations provide the strongest radiance impact on the moist energy error norm reduction. Additionally, GXS shows the capability to improve hurricane forecast track errors, resulting in improved forecast warnings. Overall, the persistent atmospheric profile information from GXS over much of the western hemisphere provide an opportunity to improve the representation of weather systems and their forecasts.

Erica McGrath-Spangler↗

Evaluating GXS Impact in the Context of International Coordination

The proposed NOAA/NASA Geostationary eXtended Observations (GeoXO) program plans to include a hyperspectral infrared (IR) sounder on its central satellite. Expected to launch in the mid-2030s, the GeoXO Sounder (GXS) will join international counterparts in a geostationary orbit. Ahead of launch, the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) assessed the potential effectiveness of GXS both as a single GEO IR sounder and as part of a global ring of such instruments, including those already being built by international agencies. Using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework, GXS was assessed from a global numerical weather prediction (NWP) perspective. The ability of GXS, both alone and as part of a global ring of GEO sounders, to improve weather prediction of thermodynamic variables was evaluated globally and regionally. Compared to a control, GXS dominated regional analysis and forecast improvements, and contributed significantly to global increases in forecast skill. However, more sustained global improvements on the order of 4 days rely on international partnerships. Using the FSOI metric over CONUS, the GXS observations provide the strongest radiance impact on the moist energy error norm reduction. Additionally, GXS shows the capability to improve hurricane forecast track errors, resulting in improved forecast warnings. Overall, the persistent atmospheric profile information from GXS over much of the western hemisphere provide an opportunity to improve the representation of weather systems and their forecasts.

Erica McGrath-Spangler↗