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NASA NTRS2010

Combining Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Observations to Enable Data-Driven Decision Making for Devils Lake Flood Mitigation in a Changing Climate

This slide presentation reviews work to combine the hydrological models and remote sensing observations to monitor Devils Lake in North Dakota, to assist in flood damage mitigation. This reports on the use of a distributed rainfall-runoff model, HEC-HMS, to simulate the hydro-dynamics of the lake watershed, and used NASA's remote sensing data, including the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and AIRS surface air temperature, to drive the model.

Zhang, Xiaodong↗

NASA NTRS2001

Regional Climate Studies with Variable-Resolution Stretched-Grid GCMs

A variable resolution GCM using a global stretched grid with fine resolution over the area(s) of interest, is a viable new approach to regional and subregional climate studies and applications. It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The first version of the SG-GCM based on the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) GCM using a finite-difference approximation, has been developed and thoroughly tested during the last few years. Successful simulations have been performed with the SG-GCM for the anomalous regional climate events of the U.S. 1988 summer drought and 1993 summer flood. They have shown the practical feasibility of the SG-approach for regional climate modeling. The GEOS SG-DAS (Data Assimilation System) incorporating the SG-GCM has also been developed and tested. The assimilated regional fields and diagnostics are used for validating the SG-GCM regional simulations. Two new SG-GCMs are being developed. The first is the SG-version of the new NASANCAR FV-GCM (with the finite-volume (FV) dynamics), and the second is the SG-version of the new GCM with spectral-element dynamics. Both GCMs use the WAR CCM4 physics. Using these advanced numerics will provide increased computational efficiency for the new the SG-GCMs, and will allow us to employ more flexible stretching strategies beneficial for the efficient regional down-scaling. The major current developments are focused on: simulating the 1997-1999 (and beyond) ENSO cycle and related monsoonal circulations, with enhanced regional resolution; studying intraseasonal and interannual regional climate variability for the extended multiyear (AMIP-type) SG-GCM simulations; and studying the impact of ensemble integrations.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2021

Rapid Cloud Removal of Dimethyl Sulfide Oxidation Products Limits SO 2 and Cloud Condensation Nuclei Production in the Marine Atmosphere

Oceans emit large quantities of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) to the marine atmosphere. The oxidation of 60 DMS leads to the formation and growth of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) with consequent effects on Earth’s radiation balance and climate. Quantitative assessment of the impact of DMS emissions on CCN concentrations necessitates a detailed description of the oxidation of DMS in the presence of existing aerosol particles and clouds. In the unpolluted marine atmosphere, DMS is efficiently oxidized to hydroperoxymethyl thioformate (HPMTF), a stable intermediate in the chemical trajectory towards sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) and ultimately sulfate aerosol (Veres et al. 2020). Using direct airborne flux measurements, we demonstrate that irreversible loss of HPMTF to clouds in the marine boundary layer determines the HPMTF lifetime (τ HPMTF < 2 hours) and terminates DMS oxidation to SO 2 in the cloudy marine boundary layer. When accounting for HPMTF cloud loss in a global chemical transport model, we show that SO 2 production from DMS is reduced by 35% globally and near surface (0-3km) SO 2 concentrations over the ocean are lowered by 24%. This large, previously unconsidered loss process for volatile sulfur accelerates the timescale for conversion of DMS to sulfate, while limiting new particle formation in the marine atmosphere and changing the dynamics of aerosol growth. This loss process potentially reduces the spatial scale over which DMS emissions contribute to aerosol production and growth and weakens the link between DMS emission and marine CCN production with subsequent implications for cloud formation, radiative forcing, and climate.

dimethyl sulfide↗

NASA NTRS1992

Earth System science

Recent research has solidified a view of the Earth as a global-scale interactive system with complex chemical, physical, biological and dynamical processes that link the ocean, atmosphere, land (soils, ice, snow) and marine and terrestrial living organisms. These processes both within and between the major parts of the system help determine global and regional climate and control the biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles essential to life. The study of the Earth System requires measurements ranging from the scales of the smallest processes to the global scale. An ambitious satellite observational program, the Earth Observing System (EOS), carried out along with the complementary and ongoing World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) represents a major international effort to understand this System and predict its future changes. The complex and intriguing nature of the Earth System is discussed along with a number of closely coupled processes occurring within it. These are: clouds, precipitation and vegetation; ocean circulation, sea-surface temperature and phytoplankton; coupled oceanic and atmospheric circulation (the Southern Oscillation); biological activity, atmospheric chemistry and climate; and biological emissions and the ozone layer.

Prinn, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Observed Impacts

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

NASA NTRS2015

North American Extreme Temperature Events and Related Large Scale Meteorological Patterns: A Review of Statistical Methods, Dynamics, Modeling, and Trends

The objective of this paper is to review statistical methods, dynamics, modeling efforts, and trends related to temperature extremes, with a focus upon extreme events of short duration that affect parts of North America. These events are associated with large scale meteorological patterns (LSMPs). The statistics, dynamics, and modeling sections of this paper are written to be autonomous and so can be read separately. Methods to define extreme events statistics and to identify and connect LSMPs to extreme temperature events are presented. Recent advances in statistical techniques connect LSMPs to extreme temperatures through appropriately defined covariates that supplement more straightforward analyses. Various LSMPs, ranging from synoptic to planetary scale structures, are associated with extreme temperature events. Current knowledge about the synoptics and the dynamical mechanisms leading to the associated LSMPs is incomplete. Systematic studies of: the physics of LSMP life cycles, comprehensive model assessment of LSMP-extreme temperature event linkages, and LSMP properties are needed. Generally, climate models capture observed properties of heat waves and cold air outbreaks with some fidelity. However they overestimate warm wave frequency and underestimate cold air outbreak frequency, and underestimate the collective influence of low-frequency modes on temperature extremes. Modeling studies have identified the impact of large-scale circulation anomalies and landatmosphere interactions on changes in extreme temperatures. However, few studies have examined changes in LSMPs to more specifically understand the role of LSMPs on past and future extreme temperature changes. Even though LSMPs are resolvable by global and regional climate models, they are not necessarily well simulated. The paper concludes with unresolved issues and research questions.

Cold Spells↗

NASA NTRS2017

Radiative Impacts of Further Arctic Sea Ice Melt: Using past Observations to Inform Future Climate Impacts

The Arctic region has seen dramatic changes over the past several decades, from polar amplification of global temperature rise to ecosystem changes to the decline of the sea ice. While there has been much speculation as to when the world will see an ice-free Arctic, the radiative impacts of an eventual disappearance of the Arctic sea ice are likely to be significant regardless of the timing. Using CERES radiation and microwave satellite sea ice data, Pistone et al (2014) estimated the radiative forcing due to albedo changes associated with the Arctic sea ice retreat over the 30 years of the satellite data record. In this study, we found that the Arctic Ocean saw a decrease in all-sky albedo of 4% (from 52% to 48%), for an estimated increase in solar heating of 6.4 W/m(exp 2) between 1979 and 2011, or 0.21 W/m(exp 2) when averaged over the globe. This value is substantial--approximately 25% as large as the forcing due to the change in CO2 during the same period. Here we update and expand upon this previous work and use the CERES broadband shortwave observations to explore the radiative impacts of a transition to completely ice-free Arctic Ocean. We estimate the annually-averaged Arctic Ocean planetary albedo under ice-free and cloud-free conditions to be 14% over the region, or approximately 25% lower in absolute terms than the Arctic Ocean cloud-free albedo in 1979. However, the question of all-sky conditions (i.e. including the effects of clouds) introduces a new level of complexity. We explore several cloud scenarios and the resultant impact on albedo. In each of these cases, the estimated forcing is not uniformly distributed throughout the year. We describe the relative contributions of ice loss by month as well as the spatial distributions of the resulting changes in absorbed solar energy. The seasonal timing and location—in addition to magnitude—of the altered solar absorption may have significant implications for atmospheric and ocean dynamics in the Arctic and at lower latitudes; this observationally-based estimate of the large-scale characteristics of an ice-free Arctic thus provides a valuable tool to complement and validate model-based assessments of future climate.

Pistone, K.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Woody Plant Decline in the Sahel of Western Niger (1996-2017): Is it Driven by Climate or Land Use Changes?

Although a recovery of woody vegetation has been observed throughout the Sahel, western Niger has not followed the overall satellite-derived greening trend. While satellite imagery can be used to study overall patterns and trends, only field observations can provide insights in the dynamics of woody plant populations. Here we used field data from 29 sites in the Dantiandou district in Niger to study woody species composition, plant density, crown cover, basal area, foliage and wood mass from 1996 to 2017. All sites show a decrease in woody plant parameters with a faster decrease in rangeland than in agricultural land. Most of the decrease is due to the loss of shrubs, while trees do not change significantly. When field observations were scaled up to the district level using land use maps, shrub density decreased from 342 to 155 ha-1in agricultural land, and from 1567 to 250 ha-1in rangeland. Trends in annual rainfall and soil moisture during the study period were not significant and cannot explain the decrease of woody vegetation. Instead, the expansion of cropped areas, shortened crop-fallow cycles and the increasing pressure on wood resources to satisfy demand for fuel and construction materials may have contributed to the decline.

Pierre Hiernaux↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Ocean-Land Teleconnections and Chaotic Atmospheric Variability in Climate Models, with Implications for Real-World Behavior

This study introduces a unique approach to estimating a fundamental but unmeasurable property of Nature: ρo 2 , the fraction of the variance of a given meteorological variable that is determined by boundary forcing (specifically, SSTs) as opposed to chaotic atmospheric dynamics. Here, we focus on continental monthly-averaged near-surface air temperature, or T2M. Rather than determining the fractions of SST-explained T2M variance found for a specific atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and then assuming that these fractions also represent Nature, we perform an analysis that entails: (i) evaluating a specific AGCM’s ability to capture observed variability with an infinite number of ensemble members, (ii) quantifying the degree to which different modeling systems agree on SST-land teleconnections, and (iii) combining these results into our novel estimates of ρo 2 . The derived ρo 2 fields suggest, with caveats, that AGCMs tend to overestimate the fraction of explained T2M variance (the signal-to-total variance ratio) in the Tropics.

Randal D Koster↗

NASA NTRS2015

Mercury-T: A New Code to Study Tidally Evolving Multi-Planet Systems. Applications to Kepler-62

A large proportion of observed planetary systems contain several planets in a compact orbital configuration, and often harbor at least one close-in object. These systems are then most likely tidally evolving. We investigate how the effects of planet-planet interactions influence the tidal evolution of planets. We introduce for that purpose a new open-source addition to the Mercury N-body code, Mercury-T, which takes into account tides, general relativity and the effect of rotation-induced flattening in order to simulate the dynamical and tidal evolution of multi-planet systems. It uses a standard equilibrium tidal model, the constant time lag model. Besides, the evolution of the radius of several host bodies has been implemented (brown dwarfs, M-dwarfs of mass 0:1 M(sub ⨀), Sun-like stars, Jupiter). We validate the new code by comparing its output for one-planet systems to the secular equations results. We find that this code does respect the conservation of total angular momentum. We applied this new tool to the planetary system Kepler-62. We find that tides influence the stability of the system in some cases. We also show that while the four inner planets of the systems are likely to have slow rotation rates and small obliquities, the fifth planet could have a fast rotation rate and a high obliquity. This means that the two habitable zone planets of this system, Kepler-62e ad f are likely to have very different climate features, and this of course would influence their potential at hosting surface liquid water..

Dynamical evolution and stability↗

NASA NTRS2022

Winter Severity Affects Occupancy of Spring- and Summer-Breeding Anurans Across the Eastern United States

Climate change is an increasingly important driver of biodiversity loss. The ectothermic nature of amphibians may make them particularly sensitive to changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, adding to declines from other threats. While active season environmental conditions can influence growth and survival, effects of variation in winter conditions on population dynamics are less well-studied. Given that extreme winter temperatures can influence amphibian survival and fitness, we expected that increased winter severity—as measured by variability in winter temperatures and snow cover—would be associated with decreased occupancy, and that populations that experience more severe winters would have the largest sensitivities and show the greatest declines.

climate↗

NASA NTRS2013

The Aqua-Planet Experiment (APE): CONTROL SST Simulation

Climate simulations by 16 atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are compared on an aqua-planet, a water-covered Earth with prescribed sea surface temperature varying only in latitude. The idealised configuration is designed to expose differences in the circulation simulated by different models. Basic features of the aqua-planet climate are characterised by comparison with Earth. The models display a wide range of behaviour. The balanced component of the tropospheric mean flow, and mid-latitude eddy covariances subject to budget constraints, vary relatively little among the models. In contrast, differences in damping in the dynamical core strongly influence transient eddy amplitudes. Historical uncertainty in modelled lower stratospheric temperatures persists in APE.Aspects of the circulation generated more directly by interactions between the resolved fluid dynamics and parameterized moist processes vary greatly. The tropical Hadley circulation forms either a single or double inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) at the equator, with large variations in mean precipitation. The equatorial wave spectrum shows a wide range of precipitation intensity and propagation characteristics. Kelvin mode-like eastward propagation with remarkably constant phase speed dominates in most models. Westward propagation, less dispersive than the equatorial Rossby modes, dominates in a few models or occurs within an eastward propagating envelope in others. The mean structure of the ITCZ is related to precipitation variability, consistent with previous studies.The aqua-planet global energy balance is unknown but the models produce a surprisingly large range of top of atmosphere global net flux, dominated by differences in shortwave reflection by clouds. A number of newly developed models, not optimised for Earth climate, contribute to this. Possible reasons for differences in the optimised models are discussed.The aqua-planet configuration is intended as one component of an experimental hierarchy used to evaluate AGCMs. This comparison does suggest that the range of model behaviour could be better understood and reduced in conjunction with Earth climate simulations. Controlled experimentation is required to explore individual model behavior and investigate convergence of the aqua-planet climate with increasing resolution.

AGCM↗

NASA NTRS2016

Exploring the Role of Humans and Climate over the Balkan Landscape: 500 Years of Vegetational History of Serbia

We present the first, well-dated, high-resolution record of vegetation and landscape change from Serbia, which spans the past 500 years. Biological proxies (pollen, spores, and charcoal), geochemical analysis through X-ray Fluorescence (XRF), and a detailed chronology based on AMS C-14 dating from a western Serbian sinkhole core suggest complex woodland-grassland dynamics and strong erosional signals throughout the Little Ice Age (LIA). An open landscape with prominent steppe vegetation (e.g. Poaceae, Chenopodiaceae) and minor woodland exists during 1540-1720 CE (early LIA), while the late LIA (1720-1850 CE) in this record shows higher tree percentages possibly due to increased moisture availability. The post LIA Era (1850-2012 CE) brings a disturbed type of vegetation with the presence of weedy genera and an increase in regional woodland. Anthropogenic indicators for agricultural, pastoral and fire practices in the region together attest to the dominant role of humans in shaping this Balkan landscape throughout the interval. The changing nature of human interference, potentially as a response to underlying climatic transitions, is evident through large-scale soil depletion resulting from grazing and land clearance during the early LIA and stabilization of arable lands during the late and post-LIA eras.

Topography↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment: A New Challenge to Monsoon Climate Research

Aerosol and monsoon related droughts and floods are two of the most serious environmental hazards confronting more than 60% of the population of the world living in the Asian monsoon countries. In recent years, thanks to improved satellite and in-situ observations, and better models, great strides have been made in aerosol, and monsoon research respectively. There is now a growing body of evidence suggesting that interaction of aerosol forcing with water cycle dynamics in monsoon regions may substantially alter the redistribution of energy at the earth surface and in the atmosphere, and therefore significantly impact monsoon rainfall variability and long term trends. In this talk, I will describe issues related to societal needs, scientific background, and challenges in studies of aerosol-water cycle interaction in Asian monsoon regions. As a first step towards addressing these issues, the authors call for an integrated observation and modeling research approach aimed at the interactions between aerosol chemistry and radiative effects and monsoon dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system. A Joint Aerosol-Monsoon Experiment (JAMEX) is proposed for 2007-2011, with an enhanced observation period during 2008-09, encompassing diverse arrays of observations from surface, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and satellites of physical and chemical properties of aerosols, long range aerosol transport as well as meteorological and oceanographic parameters in the Indo-Pacific Asian monsoon region. JAMEX will leverage on coordination among many ongoing and planned national programs on aerosols and monsoon research in China, India, Japan, Nepal, Italy, US, as well as international research programs of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Microwave maps of the polar ice of the earth

Synoptic views of the entire polar regions of earth were obtained free of the usual persistent cloud cover using a scanning microwave radiometer operating at a wavelength of 1.55 cm on board the Nimbus-5 satellite. Three different views at each pole are presented utilizing data obtained at approximately one-month intervals during the winter of 1972-1973. The major discoveries resulting from an analysis of these data are as follows: (1) Large discrepancies exist between the climatic norm ice cover depicted in various atlases and the actual extent of the canopies. (2) The distribution of multiyear ice in the north polar region is markedly different from that predicted by existing ice dynamics models. (3) Irregularities in the edge of the Antarctic sea ice pack occur that have neither been observed previously nor anticipated. (4) The brightness temperatures of the Greenland and Antarctica glaciers show interesting contours probably related to the ice and snow morphologic structure.

Gloersen, P.↗

NASA NTRS1989

PIPOR - A Programme for International Polar Oceans Research

The Programme for International Polar Oceans Research is accepted as a part of the ERS-1 mission which will be initiated with the launch of the ERS-1 earth observation satellite by the European Space Agency in 1990. It is a bipolar program with participation by institutions engaged in studies of the atmosphere-ocean-sea ice interaction and the application of remote sensing data for operational uses. The program objectives are to develop the application of microwave data for studies and modeling of sea ice dynamics and for operational uses in sea ice infested areas. As such, it is closely connected with ongoing and forthcoming research in the Arctic and the Antarctic. With sea ice being a sensitive indicator of climate perturbations, PIPOR addresses objectives of the World Climate Research Programme.

Gudmandsen, P.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Lunar and Planetary Science XXVIII

The present conference discusses such topics as density crossovers in lunar picrites, the geology of the Cassini impact basin, Mars, nanobacteria in carbonates, the properties of shocked aerogels, a chemical model of Comet Halley, lunar mascons, the impact evolution of icy regoliths, the geology of the Venera 8 landing site, the photogeologic mapping of northern Venus, HST observations of Mars, observational constraints on the rotational dynamics of Mars, and primordial magnetic field measurements from the moon. Also discussed are models of the S2 fluorescence spectra of comets, Martian crater ejecta, the heights of Venusian steep-sided domes, cloud-climate interactions on Venus, the Humorum basin geology from Clementine data, an early Amazonian lake in the Gale crater of Mars, nebular fractionations and Mn-Cr systematics, the Rock Chipper planetary surface sample collection, Mariner 10 stereo images of Mercury, remote and local stresses and Calderas on Mars, the electrostatic charging of saltating particles, SO2 detected on Callisto, the Mars Explorer Planetary Data System, an assessment of explosive venting on Europa, the sequential faulting history of the Mars Valles Marineris, a search for Martian sediments, the composition and internal structure of Europa, long-term and 'diurnal' tidal stresses on Europa, and episodic greenhouse climates on Mars.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2001

Merging Ocean Color Data from Multiple Missions

Oceanic phytoplankton may play an important role in the cycling of carbon on the Earth, through the uptake of carbon dioxide in the process of photosynthesis. Although they are ubiquitous in the global oceans, their abundances and dynamics are difficult to estimate, primarily due to the vast spatial extent of the oceans and the short time scales over which their abundances can change. Consequently, the effects of oceanic phytoplankton on biogeochemical cycling, climate change, and fisheries are not well known. In response to the potential importance of phytoplankton in the global carbon cycle and the lack of comprehensive data, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the international community have established high priority satellite missions designed to acquire and produce high quality ocean color data. Seven of the missions are routine global observational missions: the Ocean Color and Temperature Sensor (OCTS), the Polarization and Directionality of the Earth's Reflectances sensor (POLDER), Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer-AM (MODIS-AM), Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS), Global Imager (GLI), and MODIS-PM. In addition, there are several other missions capable of providing ocean color data on smaller scales. Most of these missions contain the spectral band complement considered necessary to derive oceanic pigment concentrations (i.e., phytoplankton abundance) and other related parameters. Many contain additional bands that can provide important ancillary information about the optical and biological state of the oceans. Any individual ocean color mission is limited in ocean coverage due to sun glint and clouds. For example, one of the first proposed missions, the SeaWiFS, can provide about 45% coverage of the global ocean in four days and only about 15% in one day.

Gregg, Watson W.↗