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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Trust Your Gut: Comparing Human and Machine Inference from Noisy Visualizations

People commonly utilize visualizations not only to examine a given dataset, but also to draw generalizable conclusions about the underlying models or phenomena. Prior research has compared human visual inference to that of an optimal Bayesian agent, with deviations from rational analysis viewed as problematic. However, human reliance on non-normative heuristics may prove advantageous in certain circumstances. We investigate scenarios where human intuition might surpass idealized statistical rationality. In two experiments, we examine individuals’ accuracy in characterizing the parameters of known data-generating models from bivariate visualizations. Our findings indicate that, although participants generally exhibited lower accuracy compared to statistical models, they frequently outperformed Bayesian agents, particularly when faced with extreme samples. Participants appeared to rely on their internal models to filter out noisy visualizations, thus improving their resilience against spurious data. However, participants displayed overconfidence and struggled with uncertainty estimation. They also exhibited higher variance than statistical machines. Our findings suggest that analyst gut reactions to visualizations may provide an advantage, even when departing from rationality. These results carry implications for designing visual analytics tools, offering new perspectives on how to integrate statistical models and analyst intuition for improved inference and decision-making. The data and materials for this paper are available at https://osf.io/qmfv6

human-machine collaboration↗
DOE OSTI2019

Bayesian Segmentation (BCNN) v.1

Deep learning has been applied with great success to the segmentation of 3D X-Ray Computed Tomography (CT) scans. Establishing the credibility of these segmentations requires uncertainty quantification (UQ) to identify problem areas. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs), which use variational inference to learn the posterior distribution of the neural network weights, have been proposed to incorporate UQ into deep learning models. This software is an implementation of a novel 3D Bayesian convolutional neural network (BCNN) that provides accurate binary segmentations and uncertainty maps for 3D volumes. In particular, the uncertainty maps generated by this BCNN capture continuity and visual gradients, making them interpretable as confidence intervals for segmentation usable in numerical simulations. SAND2019-12927 M Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

LaBonte, TylerMatthew↗
DOE OSTI2018

Activation product interpretation of structural material for fast critical assemblies

This work evaluates whether activation products in stainless steel components can be used to infer initial conditions (i.e. alloy composition, position within the fluence, etc.) and the associated uncertainties in a fast neutron irradiation. Activation measurements of stainless steel and elemental components were obtained through a Flattop critical assembly irradiation experiment. A forward model was developed, utilizing MCNP6.1 and FISPACT ii, to estimate activation product concentrations from several input parameters: alloy composition, source specifications, and foil positioning. While some of the calculated activation product concentrations agreed fairly well with measurements, some isotopics (i.e. 57 Co) had large discrepancies. It became clear that uncertainties in both measurements and nuclear data drove this divergence for select isotopics, and the quantification of this impact was needed. By treating both experimental measurement and nuclear data uncertainty in a Bayesian framework, it was possible to infer unknowns from given activation ratios. The developed approach showed promise in constraining mass parameters, but degeneracy existed when considering position within the neutron flux. Higher threshold reactions could potentially break the degeneracy, such as 57 Co, but uncertainty estimation needs to be better resolved for those isotopes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian Optimal Sensor Augmentation Via Estimated Mutual Information

We consider the problem of designing a sensor network to most efficiently locate the source of a seismic event. The left panel of Figure 1 shows 982 possible sensor locations in a region of interest. The objective is to infer the unknown location of an earthquake, indicated by the gold dot for illustration purposes. Assume that three sensors have already been placed for data collection. Travel times of the P-wave from the source to the three sensors are observed and used to infer the unknown source location via a Bayesian statistical model described subsequently. The right panel of Figure 1 shows samples from the resulting posterior distribution for source location along with a posterior estimate of this location.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hamiltonian parameter inference from resonant inelastic x-ray scattering with active learning

Identifying model Hamiltonians is a vital step toward creating predictive models of materials. Here, in this study, we combine Bayesian optimization with the EDRIXS numerical package to infer Hamiltonian parameters from resonant inelastic x-ray scattering (RIXS) spectra within the single atom approximation. To evaluate the efficacy of our method, we test it on experimental RIXS spectra of NiPS 3 , NiCl 2 , Ca 3 ⁢LiOsO 6 , and Fe 2⁢ O 3 , and demonstrate that it can reproduce results obtained from hand-fitted parameters to a precision similar to expert human analysis while providing a more systematic mapping of parameter space. Our work provides a key first step toward solving the inverse scattering problem to extract effective multi-orbital models from information-dense RIXS measurements, which can be applied to a host of quantum materials. We also propose atomic model parameter sets for two materials, Ca 3⁢ LiOsO 6 and Fe 2⁢ O 3 , that were previously missing from the literature.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Adapting Reinforcement Learning Treatment Policies Using Limited Data to Personalize Critical Care

We report reinforcement learning (RL) demonstrates promise for developing effective treatment policies in critical care settings. However, existing RL methods often require large and comprehensive patient data sets and do not readily lend themselves to settings in which certain patient subpopulations are severely underrepresented. In this study, we develop a new method, noisy Bayesian policy updates (NBPU), for selecting high-performing reinforcement learning–based treatment policies for underrepresented patient subpopulations using limited observations. Our method uses variational inference to learn a probability distribution over treatment policies based on a reference patient subpopulation for which sufficient data are available. It then exploits limited data from an underrepresented patient subpopulation to update this probability distribution and adapts its recommendations to this subpopulation. We demonstrate our method’s utility on a data set of ICU patients receiving intravenous blood anticoagulant medication. Our results show that NBPU outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of both selecting effective treatment policies for patients with nontypical clinical characteristics and predicting the corresponding policies’ performance for these patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thinking Bayesian for plasma physicists

Bayesian statistics offers a powerful technique for plasma physicists to infer knowledge from the heterogeneous data types encountered. To explain this power, a simple example, Gaussian Process Regression, and the application of Bayesian statistics to inverse problems are explained. The likelihood is the key distribution because it contains the data model, or theoretic predictions, of the desired quantities. By using prior knowledge, the distribution of the inferred quantities of interest based on the data given can be inferred. Because it is a distribution of inferred quantities given the data and not a single prediction, uncertainty quantification is a natural consequence of Bayesian statistics. The benefits of machine learning in developing surrogate models for solving inverse problems are discussed, as well as progress in quantitatively understanding the errors that such a model introduces.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Novel Framework to Project the Permafrost Fate With Explicit Quantification of Soil Property and Future Climate Uncertainties

This study develops a novel general framework to project the permafrost fate with rigorous uncertainty quantification to assess dominant sources. Borehole temperature records from three sites in the Russian western Arctic are used to constrain the uncertainty of a high‐fidelity freeze‐thaw model. Projections from 9 Global Climate Models (GCM) are stochastically downscaled to generate future trajectories of surface ground heat flux. Under the two emission scenarios SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5, the projected average thawing depths by 2100 vary from 0.4 to 14.4 m or 2.1 to 17.7 m, and the increase in the top 10 m average temperature from 2015 to 2100 is 1.2–2.7°C or 1.9–3.0°C. The results show that the freeze‐thaw model uncertainty can sometimes dominate over that of GCM outputs, calling for site‐specific information to improve model accuracy. The framework is applicable for understanding permafrost degradation and related uncertainties at larger scales.

Bayesian downscaling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Intra- and inter-subtype HIV diversity between 1994 and 2018 in southern Uganda: a longitudinal population-based study

There is limited data on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolutionary trends in African populations. We evaluated changes in HIV viral diversity and genetic divergence in southern Uganda over a 24-year period spanning the introduction and scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs using HIV sequence and survey data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance cohort. Gag (p24) and env (gp41) HIV data were generated from people living with HIV (PLHIV) in 31 inland semi-urban trading and agrarian communities (1994–2018) and four hyperendemic Lake Victoria fishing communities (2011–2018) under continuous surveillance. HIV subtype was assigned using the Recombination Identification Program with phylogenetic confirmation. Inter-subtype diversity was evaluated using the Shannon diversity index, and intra-subtype diversity with the nucleotide diversity and pairwise TN93 genetic distance. Genetic divergence was measured using root-to-tip distance and pairwise TN93 genetic distance analyses. Demographic history of HIV was inferred using a coalescent-based Bayesian Skygrid model. Evolutionary dynamics were assessed among demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including by migration status. 9931 HIV sequences were available from 4999 PLHIV, including 3060 and 1939 persons residing in inland and fishing communities, respectively. In inland communities, subtype A1 viruses proportionately increased from 14.3% in 1995 to 25.9% in 2017 (P < .001), while those of subtype D declined from 73.2% in 1995 to 28.2% in 2017 (P < .001). The proportion of viruses classified as recombinants significantly increased by nearly four-fold from 12.2% in 1995 to 44.8% in 2017. Inter-subtype HIV diversity has generally increased. While intra-subtype p24 genetic diversity and divergence leveled off after 2014, intra-subtype gp41 diversity, effective population size, and divergence increased through 2017. Intra- and inter-subtype viral diversity increased across all demographic and behavioral population subgroups, including among individuals with no recent migration history or extra-community sexual partners. This study provides insights into population-level HIV evolutionary dynamics following the scale-up of HIV prevention and treatment programs. Continued molecular surveillance may provide a better understanding of the dynamics driving population HIV evolution and yield important insights for epidemic control and vaccine development.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Search for low mass dark matter in DarkSide-50: the bayesian network approach

Abstract We present a novel approach for the search of dark matter in the DarkSide-50 experiment, relying on Bayesian Networks. This method incorporates the detector response model into the likelihood function, explicitly maintaining the connection with the quantity of interest. No assumptions about the linearity of the problem or the shape of the probability distribution functions are required, and there is no need to morph signal and background spectra as a function of nuisance parameters. By expressing the problem in terms of Bayesian Networks, we have developed an inference algorithm based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo to calculate the posterior probability. A clever description of the detector response model in terms of parametric matrices allows us to study the impact of systematic variations of any parameter on the final results. Our approach not only provides the desired information on the parameter of interest, but also potential constraints on the response model. Our results are consistent with recent published analyses and further refine the parameters of the detector response model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Union through UNITY: Cosmology with 2000 SNe Using a Unified Bayesian Framework

Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) were instrumental in establishing the acceleration of the Universe’s expansion. By virtue of their combination of distance reach, precision, and prevalence, they continue to provide key cosmological constraints, complementing other cosmological probes. Individual SN surveys cover only over about a factor of 2 in redshift, so compilations of multiple SN data sets are strongly beneficial. We assemble an up-to-date “Union” compilation of 2087 cosmologically useful SNe Ia from 24 data sets (“Union3”). We take care to put all SNe on the same distance scale and update the light-curve fitting with SALT3 to use the full rest-frame optical. Over the next few years, the number of cosmologically useful SNe Ia will increase by more than a factor of 10, and keeping systematic uncertainties subdominant will be more challenging than ever. We discuss the importance of treating outliers, selection effects, light-curve shape/color populations/standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations simultaneously. We present an updated Bayesian framework, called UNITY1.5 (Unified Nonlinear Inference for Type-Ia cosmologY), that incorporates significant improvements in our ability to model selection effects, standardization, and systematic uncertainties compared to earlier analyses. As an analysis byproduct, we also recover the posterior of the SN-only peculiar-velocity field, although we do not interpret it in this work. We compute updated cosmological constraints with Union3 and UNITY1.5, finding weak 1.7σ–2.6σ tension with flat cold dark matter and possible evidence for thawing dark energy (w0 > − 1, wa < 0). We release our SN distances, light-curve fits, and UNITY1.5 framework to the community.

Rubin, David↗
DOE OSTI2017

Uncertainties in Parameters Estimated with Neural Networks: Application to Strong Gravitational Lensing

In Hezaveh et al. (2017) we showed that deep learning can be used for model parameter estimation and trained convolutional neural networks to determine the parameters of strong gravitational lensing systems. Here we demonstrate a method for obtaining the uncertainties of these parameters. We review the framework of variational inference to obtain approximate posteriors of Bayesian neural networks and apply it to a network trained to estimate the parameters of the Singular Isothermal Ellipsoid plus external shear and total flux magnification. We show that the method can capture the uncertainties due to different levels of noise in the input data, as well as training and architecture-related errors made by the network. To evaluate the accuracy of the resulting uncertainties, we calculate the coverage probabilities of marginalized distributions for each lensing parameter. By tuning a single hyperparameter, the dropout rate, we obtain coverage probabilities approximately equal to the confidence levels for which they were calculated, resulting in accurate and precise uncertainty estimates. Our results suggest that neural networks can be a fast alternative to Monte Carlo Markov Chains for parameter uncertainty estimation in many practical applications, allowing more than seven orders of magnitude improvement in speed.

Perreault Levasseur, Laurence↗
NASA NTRS1994

The intrinsic shape of NGC 3379

Photometric and kinematic data from the literature are combined with new dynamical models to derive the intrinsic shape of the 'standard' elliptical galaxy NGC 3379. The parameters that are best constrained are the dynamical triaxiality T (essentially the triaxiality of the total mass distribution) and the short-to long axis ratio of the light distribution c(sub L). The inferred shape is given by a Bayesian probability distribution in the (T, c(sub L) plane. Assuming a uniform prior, the most probable shape is oblate with a flattening of c(sub L) = 87. The distribution is strongly non-Gaussian, however, and the expectation values, (T) = .31 (c(sub L) = .75, imply a flatter and more triaxial figure. The 68% highest posterior density region allows more triaxial shapes as long as they are fairly round, or flatter shapes as long as they are nearly oblate. These results are essentially unchanged if the galaxy is assumed to rotate about its short axis, or if it is modeled as an S0 with a negligible-mass disk rather than as an elliptical. The suggestion of Capaccioli et al. (ApJ, 371, 535 (1991)) that NGC 3379 is a rather flat, triaxial S0 galaxy is found to be improbable at the 98% level; this conclusion is largely independent of the bulge-to-disk ratio or the relative rotation speeds of the two components.

Statler, Thomas S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Neural network ensembles and uncertainty estimation for predictions of inelastic mechanical deformation using a finite element method-neural network approach

The finite element method (FEM) is widely used to simulate a variety of physics phenomena. Approaches that integrate FEM with neural networks (NNs) are typically leveraged as an alternative to conducting expensive FEM simulations in order to reduce the computational cost without significantly sacrificing accuracy. However, these methods can produce biased predictions that deviate from those obtained with FEM, since these hybrid FEM-NN approaches rely on approximations trained using physically relevant quantities. In this work, an uncertainty estimation framework is introduced that leverages ensembles of Bayesian neural networks to produce diverse sets of predictions using a hybrid FEM-NN approach that approximates internal forces on a deforming solid body. The uncertainty estimator developed herein reliably infers upper bounds of bias/variance in the predictions for a wide range of interpolation and extrapolation cases using a three-element FEM-NN model of a bar undergoing plastic deformation. This proposed framework offers a powerful tool for assessing the reliability of physics-based surrogate models by establishing uncertainty estimates for predictions spanning a wide range of possible load cases.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

A BAYESIAN ESTIMATE OF THE CMB–LARGE-SCALE STRUCTURE CROSS-CORRELATION

Evidences for late-time acceleration of the universe are provided by multiple probes, such as Type Ia supernovae, the cosmic microwave background (CMB), and large-scale structure (LSS). In this work, we focus on the integrated Sachs–Wolfe (ISW) effect, i.e., secondary CMB fluctuations generated by evolving gravitational potentials due to the transition between, e.g., the matter and dark energy (DE) dominated phases. Therefore, assuming a flat universe, DE properties can be inferred from ISW detections. We present a Bayesian approach to compute the CMB–LSS cross-correlation signal. The method is based on the estimate of the likelihood for measuring a combined set consisting of a CMB temperature and galaxy contrast maps, provided that we have some information on the statistical properties of the fluctuations affecting these maps. The likelihood is estimated by a sampling algorithm, therefore avoiding the computationally demanding techniques of direct evaluation in either pixel or harmonic space. As local tracers of the matter distribution at large scales, we used the Two Micron All Sky Survey galaxy catalog and, for the CMB temperature fluctuations, the ninth-year data release of the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe ( WMAP 9). The results show a dominance of cosmic variance over the weak recovered signal, due mainly to the shallowness of the catalog used, with systematics associated with the sampling algorithm playing a secondary role as sources of uncertainty. When combined with other complementary probes, the method presented in this paper is expected to be a useful tool to late-time acceleration studies in cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Bayesian approach to time-domain photonic Doppler velocimetry analysis

Photonic Doppler velocimetry (PDV) is an established technique for measuring the velocities of fast-moving surfaces in high-energy-density experiments. In the standard approach to PDV analysis, the short-time Fourier transform (STFT) is used to generate a spectrogram from which the velocity history of the target is inferred. The user chooses the form, duration, and separation of the window function. Here, in this study, we present a Bayesian approach to infer the velocity directly from the PDV oscilloscope trace, without using the spectrogram for analysis. This is clearly a difficult inference problem due to the highly periodic nature of the data, but we find that with carefully chosen prior distributions for the model parameters, we can accurately recover the injected velocity from synthetic data. We validate this method using PDV data collected at the STAR two-stage light gas gun at Sandia National Laboratories, recovering shock-front velocities in quartz that are consistent with those inferred using the STFT-based approach and are interpolated across regions of low signal-to-noise data. Although this method does not rely on the same user choices as the STFT, we caution that it can be prone to misspecification if the chosen model is not sufficient to capture the velocity behavior. Analysis using posterior predictive checks can be used to establish whether a better model is required, although more complex models come with additional computational cost, often taking more than several hours to converge when sampling the Bayesian posterior. We, therefore, recommend it be viewed as a complementary method to that of the STFT-based approach.

Allison, James R. [First Light Fusion Ltd., Yarnto↗