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At least 811 records · Page 45

Visibility of the lunar crescent

A model designed to predict whether or not the moon will be visible under any set of observing conditions is presented. It explicitly includes atmospheric clarity, which is calculated from the site's altitude, latitude, temperature, relative humidity, aerosol content, and time of the year. This mathematical model is combined with a lunar and solar ephemeris to yield a computer program which will predict the date of the first crescent sighting from any location. A list of 201 observations of lunar visibility was collected to test this model and other models. It is found that criteria involving the moonset lagtime and the moon's age have zones of uncertainty which typically cover the entire earth.

Schaefer, Bradley E.↗

Correcting for filter-based aerosol light absorption biases at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains site using photoacoustic measurements and machine learning

Abstract. Measurement of light absorption of solar radiation by aerosols is vital for assessing direct aerosol radiative forcing, which affects local and global climate. Low-cost and easy-to-operate filter-based instruments, such as the Particle Soot Absorption Photometer (PSAP), that collect aerosols on a filter and measure light attenuation through the filter are widely used to infer aerosol light absorption. However, filter-based absorption measurements are subject to artifacts that are difficult to quantify. These artifacts are associated with the presence of the filter medium and the complex interactions between the filter fibers and accumulated aerosols. Various correction algorithms have been introduced to correct for the filter-based absorption coefficient measurements toward predicting the particle-phase absorption coefficient (Babs). However, the inability of these algorithms to incorporate into their formulations the complex matrix of influencing parameters such as particle asymmetry parameter, particle size, and particle penetration depth results in prediction of particle-phase absorption coefficients with relatively low accuracy. The analytical forms of corrections also suffer from a lack of universal applicability: different corrections are required for rural and urban sites across the world. In this study, we analyzed and compared 3 months of high-time-resolution ambient aerosol absorption data collected synchronously using a three-wavelength photoacoustic absorption spectrometer (PASS) and PSAP. Both instruments were operated on the same sampling inlet at the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains (SGP) user facility in Oklahoma. We implemented the two most commonly used analytical correction algorithms, namely, Virkkula (2010) and the average of Virkkula (2010) and Ogren (2010)–Bond et al. (1999) as well as a random forest regression (RFR) machine learning algorithm to predict Babs values from the PSAP's filter-based measurements. The predicted Babs was compared against the reference Babs measured by the PASS. The RFR algorithm performed the best by yielding the lowest root mean square error of prediction. The algorithm was trained using input datasets from the PSAP (transmission and uncorrected absorption coefficient), a co-located nephelometer (scattering coefficients), and the Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor (mass concentration of non-refractory aerosol particles). A revised form of the Virkkula (2010) algorithm suitable for the SGP site has been proposed; however, its performance yields approximately 2-fold errors when compared to the RFR algorithm. To generalize the accuracy and applicability of our proposed RFR algorithm, we trained and tested it on a dataset of laboratory measurements of combustion aerosols. Input variables to the algorithm included the aerosol number size distribution from the Scanning Mobility Particle Sizer, absorption coefficients from the filter-based Tricolor Absorption Photometer, and scattering coefficients from a multiwavelength nephelometer. The RFR algorithm predicted Babs values within 5 % of the reference Babs measured by the multiwavelength PASS during the laboratory experiments. Thus, we show that machine learning approaches offer a promising path to correct for biases in long-term filter-based absorption datasets and accurately quantify their variability and trends needed for robust radiative forcing determination.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Empirical Acoustic Source Model for Chemical Explosions in Air

Chemical explosions generate pressure disturbances in air that radiate as nonlinear shock waves near the source and transition into acoustic waves with distance. Because low-frequency acoustic waves generally travel large distances without significant loss of energy, they are often used for explosion monitoring and yield estimation. However, quantitative relationships between acoustic energy and explosion yields are required for accurate yield estimation. Here, we develop an empirical acoustic source model for chemical explosions from experimental data. The empirical model returns the acoustic pressure waveform for the detonation of 1 kg of trinitrotoluene, which is conventionally used to represent the explosive release of 4.184 MJ of explosion energy. The full-waveform model can be used to predict acoustic signals for an arbitrary yield of a high-explosive detonation based on the standard scaling law and to estimate acoustic energies in a specific frequency range. We evaluate the accuracy of the acoustic source model independently by estimating the yield of other explosive events that are not included in the model development. Finally, statistical characteristics of the model and their implications for the uncertainty quantification of estimated yields are discussed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Adaptive Framework for Maintenance Scheduling Based on Dynamic Preventive Intervals and Remaining Useful Life Estimation

Data-based prognostic methods exploit sensor data to forecast the remaining useful life (RUL) of industrial settings to optimize the scheduling of maintenance actions. However, implementing sensors may not be cost-effective or practical for all components. Traditional preventive approaches are not based on sensor data; however, they schedule maintenance at equally spaced intervals, which is not a cost-effective approach since the distribution of the time between failures changes with the degradation state of other parts or changes in working conditions. This study introduces a novel framework comprising two maintenance scheduling strategies. In the absence of sensor data, we propose a novel dynamic preventive policy that adjusts intervention intervals based on the most recent failure data. When sensor data are available, a method for RUL prediction, designated k-LSTM-GFT, is enhanced to dynamically account for RUL prediction uncertainty. The results demonstrate that dynamic preventive maintenance can yield cost reductions of up to 51.8% compared to conventional approaches. The predictive approach optimizes the exploitation of RUL, achieving costs that are only 3–5% higher than the minimum cost achievable while ensuring the safety of critical systems since all of the failures are avoided.

Nunes, Pedro (ORCID:0000000180012172)↗

Effects of Size and Shape on the Tolerances for Misalignment and Probabilities for Successful Oriented Attachment of Nanoparticles

Oriented attachment (OA) of nanoparticles is an important pathway of crystal growth, but tools for quantitatively modeling OA are lacking. Here we present several simple models that relate the probability of achieving OA to basic geometric parameters such as particle size, shape, and lattice periodicity. A Moiré-domain model is applied to understand twist-misorientations between parallel surfaces, and it predicts that the range of twist angles yielding perfect OA is inversely related to the width of the contact area. This is confirmed and further developed using a surface functional model, which predicts how crystallographic registration forces drive the emergence of complex orientational energy landscapes. The energy landscapes are predicted to possess local minima that can trap particles in imperfect alignments, and these local minima become deeper and more numerous as the contact area increases, making OA more challenging for large particles. Further, a second set of models is presented to understand the sequence of events by which two crystallographic faces become co-planer after collision. We use a ‘central force approximation’ to quantitatively predict the odds of attaining coalignment between various faces when particles collide with random misalignments, and we show that in the absence of biasing forces, the probability of attaining alignment on a given face is roughly proportional to its solid angle as viewed from the center of the particle. The model predicts that OA is most favorable between well-faceted particles and becomes exceedingly unlikely for large spherical particles that express many microfacets.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Single-nucleon knockout cross sections for reactions producing resonance states at or beyond the drip line

Single-nucleon knockout cross sections from fast secondary beams of the proton-drip-line nuclei 9 C, 13 O, and 17 Ne on a 9 Be target have been studied with emphasis on the production of resonance states. These states were identified by their invariant mass, and resonances with two-, three-, and five-body exit channels were examined. The measured cross sections for these states were compared with eikonal-model predictions using shell-model or variational Monte Carlo spectroscopic factors. The experimental yields were found to be suppressed relative to the model predictions, especially when a well-bound neutron or proton is removed. This suppression exceeds that found systematically in measured inclusive cross sections to particle-bound final states. In neutron knockout from 9 C and 13 O projectiles, this suppression of the unbound ground-state residuals yield is a factor of two to three times larger than that found in the bound final-state studies. Modifications to the structure of these systems due to coupling of the shell-model configurations to the continuum is expected to contribute to this extra suppression, especially when the final state is a near-threshold resonance. Furthermore, other considerations including the role of nuclear dynamics may be required to explain all the observed trends.

6 ≤ A ≤ 19↗

Effect of laser preheat in magnetized liner inertial fusion at OMEGA

Integrated magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments on the OMEGA laser system are modeled to investigate the effects of laser preheat on implosion performance. In both simulations and experiments, preheating the fuel with a laser enhances the neutron yield, with the maximum yield occurring at an optimal preheat laser energy. Increasing the preheat energy past the optimal value reduces the neutron yield. In simulations, the rate of the drop in neutron yield depends on the inclusion of the Nernst effect. The Nernst effect advects the magnetic field away from the center of the fuel region during the preheat stage of MagLIF on OMEGA and weakens magnetic-flux compression. If the Nernst effect is not included, the simulated drop in yield past the optimal preheat laser energy is more gradual as opposed to the sharper drop seen in experiments. Simulations are able to model trend in measured ion temperatures seen in experiments. Here, a mix model is used to show that including mix from the wall in the simulated fuel region further degrades the yield and lowers the optimal preheat laser energy. Simulations with mix predict that increasing the initial axial magnetic field may still enhance yield performance in integrated implosions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Granular instability in fluidized beds: A small-over-large instability

For different particle diameters arranged in a gas fluidized bed, a new gravitational instability is predicted. The first order stability analysis yields conditions for growth of the most unstable wavenumber both as a function of particle diameter and dimensionless Bond number. Gravity acts to distribute the greater fluid mass associated with smaller particles, while surface tension stabilizes the entire bed against accelerations. The phenomenon, called the 'Small-over-Large' (SL) instability, evolves somewhat akin to a Rayleigh-Taylor mechanism and in addition to fundamental interest, carries implications for predicting solute redistribution and gravitational alignments in particle beds and chemical separation columns.

Noever, David A.↗

An Acoustic Emission and Acousto-Ultrasonic Analysis of Impact Damaged Composite Pressure Vessels

The research presented herein summarizes the development of acoustic emission (AE) and acousto-ultrasonic (AU) techniques for the nondestructive evaluation of filament wound composite pressure vessels. Vessels fabricated from both graphite and kevlar fibers with an epoxy matrix were examined prior to hydroburst using AU and during hydroburst using AE. A dead weight drop apparatus featuring both blunt and sharp impactor tips was utilized to produce a single known energy 'damage' level in each of the vessels so that the degree to which the effects of impact damage could be measured. The damage levels ranged from barely visible to obvious fiber breakage and delamination. Independent neural network burst pressure prediction models were developed from a sample of each fiber/resin material system. Here, the cumulative AE amplitude distribution data collected from low level proof test (25% of the expected burst for undamaged vessels) were used to measure the effects of the impact on the residual burst pressure of the vessels. The results of the AE/neural network model for the inert propellant filled graphite/epoxy vessels 'IM7/3501-6, IM7/977-2 and IM7/8553-45' demonstrated that burst pressures can be predicted from low level AE proof test data, yielding an average error of 5.0%. The trained network for the IM7/977-2 class vessels was also able to predict the expected burst pressure of taller vessels (three times longer hoop region length) constructed of the same material and using the same manufacturing technique, with an average error of 4.9%. To a lesser extent, the burst pressure prediction models could also measure the effects of impact damage to the kevlar/epoxy 'Kevlar 49/ DPL862' vessels. Here though, due to the higher attenuation of the material, an insufficient amount of AE amplitude information was collected to generate robust network models. Although, the worst case trial errors were less than 6%, when additional blind predictions were attempted, errors as high as 50% were produced. An acousto-ultrasonic robotic evaluation system (AURES) was developed for mapping the effects of damage on filament wound pressure vessels prior to hydroproof testing. The AURES injects a single broadband ultrasonic pulse into each vessel at preprogrammed positions and records the effects of the interaction of that pulse on the material volume with a broadband receiver. A stress wave factor in the form of the energy associated with the 750 to 1000 kHz and 1000 to 1250 kHz frequency bands were used to map the potential failure sites for each vessel. The energy map associated with the graphite/epoxy vessels was found to decrease in the region of the impact damage. The kevlar vessels showed the opposite trend, with the energy values increasing around the damage/failure sites.

Walker, James L.↗

Temporal variabilities of soil carbon dioxide fluxes from cornfield impacted by temperature and precipitation changes through high-frequent measurement and DAYCENT modelling

Soil carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from the field of corn (Zea mays L.) play an important role in global warming. This study investigated temporal variability of soil CO 2 fluxes (R s ) with soil temperature (T s ) and moisture (θ) and built DAYCENT models for predicting future impacts of climate changes on R s using the measured high-frequency data. R s trend was tested by Mann–Kendall and Sen Estimator. Predicted R s s under different climate scenarios were compared using Parallel-line Analysis. Herein, the findings indicated that daily R s exponentially increased with T s constrained by θ. During the θ of 27–31%, there was a strong exponential relationship between R s and T s , but the relationship was weaker for the θ of 38–41% and 22–26%. Soil environmental index (SEI, T s × θ) significantly impacted R s with linear regression R s 0.5 = 0.4599 + 0.002059 × SEI in 2008, 2009 and 2011. At the diurnal scale, there were different trends in R s s and relationships among R s and T s and θ in different years. Predicted yearly R s s, root R s s and corn yield in 2014–2049 increased with an increase in temperature scenarios, but the R s s significantly increased as temperature rose by 1°C or higher. Predicted yearly R s s, root R s s and yield reduced with precipitation scenario increase, and the root R s s and yield significantly diminished as precipitation increased by 15 and 30%. Predicted yearly R s from cornfields had a significantly increasing trend. Future research is needed to explore methods for mitigating cornfield R s and evaluating sensitivities of different cropland R s s to temperature changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Strain intensity factor approach for predicting the strength of continuously reinforced metal matrix composites

A method was previously developed to predict the fracture toughness (stress intensity factor at failure) of composites in terms of the elastic constants and the tensile failing strain of the fibers. The method was applied to boron/aluminum composites made with various proportions of 0 to + or - 45 deg plies. Predicted values of fracture toughness were in gross error because widespread yielding of the aluminum matrix made the compliance very nonlinear. An alternate method was developed to predict the strain intensity factor at failure rather than the stress intensity factor because the singular strain field was not affected by yielding as much as the stress field. Strengths of specimens containing crack-like slits were calculated from predicted failing strains using uniaxial stress-strain curves. Predicted strengths were in good agreement with experimental values, even for the very nonlinear laminates that contained only + or - 45 deg plies. This approach should be valid for other metal matrix composites that have continuous fibers.

Poe, C. C., Jr.↗

Charge Yield at Low Electric Fields: Considerations for Bipolar Integrated Circuits

A significant reduction in total dose damage is observed when bipolar integrated circuits are irradiated at low temperature. This can be partially explained by the Onsager theory of recombination, which predicts a strong temperature dependence for charge yield under low-field conditions. Reduced damage occurs for biased as well as unbiased devices because the weak fringing field in thick bipolar oxides only affects charge yield near the Si/SiO2 interface, a relatively small fraction of the total oxide thickness. Lowering the temperature of bipolar ICs - either continuously, or for time periods when they are exposed to high radiation levels - provides an additional degree of freedom to improve total dose performance of bipolar circuits, particularly in space applications.

ionizing radiation↗

Magnetized ICF implosions: Scaling of temperature and yield enhancement

This work investigates the impact of an applied magnetic field on the yield and hot-spot temperature of inertial confinement fusion implosions. A scaling of temperature amplification due to magnetization is shown to be in agreement with unperturbed two-dimensional (2D) extended-magnetohydrodynamic simulations. A perfectly spherical hot-spot with an axial magnetic field is predicted to have a maximum temperature amplification of 37%. However, elongation of the hot-spot along field lines raises this value by decreasing the hot-spot surface area along magnetic field lines. A scaling for yield amplification predicts that a magnetic field has the greatest benefit for low-temperature implosions; this is in agreement with simplified 1D simulations, but not 2D simulations where the hot-spot pressure can be significantly reduced by heat-flow anisotropy. Simulations including a P2 drive asymmetry then show that the magnetized yield is a maximum when the capsule drive corrects the hot-spot shape to be round at neutron bang time. An applied magnetic field is also found to be most beneficial for implosions that are more highly perturbed, exceeding the theoretical yield enhancement for symmetric hot-spots. Increasing the magnetic field strength past the value required to magnetize the electrons is beneficial due to the additional suppression of perturbations by magnetic tension.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Modeling Growth Kinetics, Interspecies Cell Fusion, and Metabolism of a Clostridium acetobutylicum / Clostridium ljungdahlii Syntrophic Coculture

ABSTRACT Clostridium acetobutylicum and Clostridium ljungdahlii grown in a syntrophic culture were recently shown to fuse membranes and exchange cytosolic contents, yielding hybrid cells with significant shifts in gene expression and growth phenotypes. Here, we introduce a dynamic genome-scale metabolic modeling framework to explore how cell fusion alters the growth phenotype and panel of metabolites produced by this binary community. Computational results indicate C. ljungdahlii persists in the coculture through proteome exchange during fusing events, which endow C. ljungdahlii cells with expanded substrate utilization, and access to additional reducing equivalents from C. acetobutylicum -evolved H 2 and through acquisition of C. acetobutylicum -native cofactor-reducing enzymes. Simulations predict maximum theoretical ethanol and isopropanol yields that are increased by 0.64 mmol and 0.39 mmol per mmol hexose sugar consumed, respectively, during exponential growth when cell fusion is active. This modeling effort provides a mechanistic explanation for the metabolic outcome of cellular fusion and altered homeostasis achieved in this syntrophic clostridial community. IMPORTANCE Widespread cell fusion and protein exchange between microbial organisms as observed in synthetic C. acetobutylicum / C. ljungdahlii culture is a novel observation that has not been explored in silico . The mechanisms responsible for the observed cell fusion events in this culture are still unknown. In this work, we develop a modeling framework that captures the observed culture composition and metabolic phenotype, use it to offer a mechanistic explanation for how the culture achieves homeostasis, and identify C. ljungdahlii as primary beneficiary of fusion events. The implications for the events described in this study are far reaching, with potential to reshape our understanding of microbial community behavior synthetically and in nature.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Machine Learning Driven Contouring of High-Frequency Four-Dimensional Cardiac Ultrasound Data

Automatic boundary detection of 4D ultrasound (4DUS) cardiac data is a promising yet challenging application at the intersection of machine learning and medicine. Using recently developed murine 4DUS cardiac imaging data, we demonstrate here a set of three machine learning models that predict left ventricular wall kinematics along both the endo- and epi-cardial boundaries. Each model is fundamentally built on three key features: (1) the projection of raw US data to a lower dimensional subspace, (2) a smoothing spline basis across time, and (3) a strategic parameterization of the left ventricular boundaries. Model 1 is constructed such that boundary predictions are based on individual short-axis images, regardless of their relative position in the ventricle. Model 2 simultaneously incorporates parallel short-axis image data into their predictions. Model 3 builds on the multi-slice approach of model 2, but assists predictions with a single ground-truth position at end-diastole. To assess the performance of each model, Monte Carlo cross validation was used to assess the performance of each model on unseen data. For predicting the radial distance of the endocardium, models 1, 2, and 3 yielded average R2 values of 0.41, 0.49, and 0.71, respectively. Monte Carlo simulations of the endocardial wall showed significantly closer predictions when using model 2 versus model 1 at a rate of 48.67%, and using model 3 versus model 2 at a rate of 83.50%. These finding suggest that a machine learning approach where multi-slice data are simultaneously used as input and predictions are aided by a single user input yields the most robust performance. Subsequently, we explore the how metrics of cardiac kinematics compare between ground-truth contours and predicted boundaries. We observed negligible deviations from ground-truth when using predicted boundaries alone, except in the case of early diastolic strain rate, providing confidence for the use of such machine learning models for rapid and reliable assessments of murine cardiac function. To our knowledge, this is the first application of machine learning to murine left ventricular 4DUS data. Future work will be needed to strengthen both model performance and applicability to different cardiac disease models.

4D ultrasound↗

Full‐Waveform Simulation of Infrasound Propagation in the Atmosphere: A Case Study of the 2023 April 20 SpaceX Starship Explosion

Infrasound, low‐frequency sound below 20 Hz, has been a key technology to monitor explosion events in the atmosphere. The International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear‐Test‐Ban Treaty Organization provides the means for continuous monitoring of infrasonic events worldwide. Infrasonic techniques for event location and size estimation can also complement other observational techniques for the detection and characterization of the entry of asteroids or large meteoroids. In this study, we describe the detection capability of IMS infrasound stations for an explosive event in the middle of the atmosphere. Full‐waveform simulations are performed with the specification of atmospheric conditions and incorporated into the event location and explosion yield estimation. We applied it to the 2023 April 20 SpaceX Starship explosion at 29 km altitude. Starship is a super heavy‐lift space vehicle constructed by SpaceX and known as the largest and most powerful rocket ever built. The Starship explosion created huge pressure disturbances in the atmosphere, and its infrasound was detected by the IMS arrays in North America between 2000 and 4000 km. Independent observational data and available ground‐truth information provide a rare opportunity to evaluate the monitoring capability of the IMS network for elevated sources in the atmosphere. We also demonstrate the capability of full‐waveform simulation for infrasound wavefield characterization and prediction to improve event location and yield estimation.

Geosciences↗

Measurement of radiolytic hydrogen generation and impact of drying treatments on reactor exposed and surrogate aluminum materials

Technical challenges associated with dry storage of Aluminum-clad Spent Nuclear Fuel (ASNF) include a need to better understand the potential extent of gaseous molecular hydrogen (H 2 ) production through radiolytic degradation of the aluminum (oxy)hydroxide films present on ASNF. The characterization of radiolytic gas generation from ASNF (oxy)hydroxide layers has been identified as a key knowledge gap which poses a technical challenge to the long-term storage of ASNF. Task 2 of the action plan for the extended (>50 years) dry storage of ASNF addresses this gap. Previous radiolysis studies performed under Task 2 established baseline estimates of H 2 generation rates from the attendant hydrated oxides. The results confirmed that net radiolytic H 2 production has a dependency on absorbed gamma dose, as well as relative humidity and cover gas composition (air, nitrogen, and argon). Further experiments revealed that the physisorbed water on the samples may significantly impact the radiolytic H 2 yield. This phenomenon complicates the determination of H 2 generation rates for hydrated oxides, which may lead to inaccurate modeling predictions of the long-term H 2 yields in sealed storage systems containing ASNF, particularly when compared to spent fuel casks which have undergone some drying process intended to remove physically- and chemically-bound water. This report describes the testing methods utilized and the hydrogen generation results obtained in an investigation of the effects of gamma irradiation on aluminum materials for a variety of (oxy)hydroxide surface compositions and drying conditions. The testing methods included small-area aluminum material testing in ampules, and large-area aluminum material testing in steel vessels. Test material preparation, irradiation, and radiolytic H 2 measurement methods are summarized. The measured H 2 concentrations, which reflect the variable initial hydrated inventory and drying treatments, are compared to one another as well as to previously published data, to identify the primary factors affecting radiolytic H 2 generation rates and potential equilibrium H 2 concentrations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Rapid Design of Cost-Effective Refractory High Entropy Alloys Strengthened by Precipitation

Funded by the ARPA-E ULTIMATE program, this project aims to develop cost-effective refractory high entropy alloys (RHEAs) for gas turbine blades applications at 1300 degree Celsius and above. The alloy design focuses on carbides precipitation strengthening in a strong and ductile solid solution BCC matrix. The goal is to achieve balanced mechanical properties including room temperature ductility & fracture toughness and high temperature strength and creep resistance, while maintaining comparable oxidation resistance and densities to Ni-base superalloys. To accelerate alloy design, multiscale modeling including CALPHAD and first-principles density functional theory (DFT) calculations and machine learning are performed. Specifically, high throughput phase diagram calculations and screening are carried out using CALPHAD; DFT calculations are performed to predict intrinsic ductility, grain boundary strengthening potential, coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) and temperature-dependent elastic constants. Temperature dependent yield stress, creep strain and CTE are also predicted using machine learning. Down-selected alloys are synthesized in small buttons of about 250g using arc melting for rapid evaluation on microstructure and mechanical properties before employing plasma arc melting and additive manufacturing for producing large ingots. Preliminary computational and experimental results of this project will be presented and future direction in RHEA development will be discussed.

high temperature materials↗