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At least 811 records · Page 45

Error-Field Penetration Thresholds in Ohmically Heated ITER and SPARC Plasmas

The critical n=1, n=2, and n=3 error-field amplitudes needed to trigger error-field penetration in ITER and SPARC, steady-state, ohmically heated plasmas are calculated using a standard asymptotic matching approach. The calculation incorporates plasma impurities, trapped particles, the bootstrap current, and neoclassical poloidal flow-damping. The energy confinement time is specified by the neo-Alcator scaling law in the low-density linear ohmic confinement (LOC) regime, and by the ITER-89P L-mode scaling law in the high-density saturated ohmic confinement regime (SOC) regime. The response of the plasma in the inner region is calculated using a linearized version of the four-field model. At the normal operating electron number density, diamagnetic levels of rotation are found to be sufficient to protect ITER and SPARC ohmically heated plasmas from m=2/n=1 error-field penetration. On other hand, SPARC, and especially ITER, ohmically heated plasmas may be vulnerable to n>1 error-field penetration. ITER and SPARC ohmically heated plasmas are also slightly more susceptible to error-field penetration when the electron fluid at the rational surface rotates in the ion diamagnetic direction, rather than the electron diamagnetic direction. At electron number densities that are sufficiently low that the plasma lies in the LOC confinement regime, the error-field penetration threshold increases with increasing density. However, as soon as the electron number density becomes large enough that the plasma enters the SOC regime, the increase in the error-field penetration threshold with increasing density levels off.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

A two-dimensional numerical study of the magneto-Rayleigh–Taylor instability with FLASH: Application to the staged Z-pinch concept

Magnetically driven implosions involving a liner collapsing onto a target are inherently vulnerable to the magneto-Rayleigh–Taylor instability (MRTI). Among the various approaches proposed to achieve fusion conditions within the target, the staged Z-pinch (SZP) concept employs a high-Z liner, the advantages of which remain an active area of investigation. Consequently, ongoing design optimization efforts are essential, while critical physical processes such as magnetic field (B-field) diffusion and radiation transport increase the complexity of required simulations. In this study, we utilize the new capabilities of the FLASH code to simulate in 2D, for the first time using this code, staged Z-pinch configurations (designated SZP1 and SZP1*), focusing on their stability. First, a comparison of simulation results with theoretical predictions of MRTI growth provide new insights into the often-overlooked influences of high mesh resolution and initial perturbation seeding on instability dynamics. These findings then lead to a discussion on potential improvements for future SZP experiments. These include the use of an axial B-field stabilization and the optimization of radiation transport processes during the implosion. The results presented herein establish the framework for simulating multi-dimensional Z pinches using the FLASH code and pave the way for the development of innovative experimental configurations leveraging its advanced simulation capabilities.

Adaptive mesh refinement↗

A coupled human–natural system analysis of freshwater security under climate and population change

Limited water availability, population growth, and climate change have resulted in freshwater crises in many countries. Jordan’s situation is emblematic, compounded by conflict-induced population shocks. Integrating knowledge across hydrology, climatology, agriculture, political science, geography, and economics, we present the Jordan Water Model, a nationwide coupled human–natural-engineered systems model that is used to evaluate Jordan’s freshwater security under climate and socioeconomic changes. The complex systems model simulates the trajectory of Jordan’s water system, representing dynamic interactions between a hierarchy of actors and the natural and engineered water environment. A multiagent modeling approach enables the quantification of impacts at the level of thousands of representative agents across sectors, allowing for the evaluation of both systemwide and distributional outcomes translated into a suite of water-security metrics (vulnerability, equity, shortage duration, and economic well-being). Model results indicate severe, potentially destabilizing, declines in freshwater security. Per capita water availability decreases by approximately 50% by the end of the century. Without intervening measures, >90% of the low-income household population experiences critical insecurity by the end of the century, receiving <40 L per capita per day. Widening disparity in freshwater use, lengthening shortage durations, and declining economic welfare are prevalent across narratives. To gain a foothold on its freshwater future, Jordan must enact a sweeping portfolio of ambitious interventions that include large-scale desalinization and comprehensive water sector reform, with model results revealing exponential improvements in water security through the coordination of supply- and demand-side measures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Redox signaling by glutathione peroxidase 2 links vascular modulation to metabolic plasticity of breast cancer

Redox regulation of breast cancer underlies malignant progression. Loss of the antioxidant glutathione peroxidase 2 in breast cancer cells increases reactive oxygen species, thereby activating hypoxia inducible factor-α (HIF1α) signaling. This in turn causes vascular malfunction, resulting in hypoxia and metabolic heterogeneity. HIF1α suppresses oxidative phosphorylation and stimulates glycolysis (the Warburg effect) in most of the tumor, except for one cancer subpopulation, which was capable of using both metabolic modalities. Hence, adopting a hybrid metabolic state may allow tumor cells to survive under aerobic or hypoxic conditions, a vulnerability that may be exploited for therapeutic targeting by either metabolic or redox-based strategies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Sea-level rise in Southwest Greenland as a contributor to Viking abandonment

The first records of Greenland Vikings date to 985 CE. Archaeological evidence yields insight into how Vikings lived, yet drivers of their disappearance in the 15th century remain enigmatic. Research suggests a combination of environmental and socioeconomic factors, and the climatic shift from the Medieval Warm Period (~900 to 1250 CE) to the Little Ice Age (~1250 to 1900 CE) may have forced them to abandon Greenland. Glacial geomorphology and paleoclimate research suggest that the Southern Greenland Ice Sheet readvanced during Viking occupation, peaking in the Little Ice Age. Counterintuitively, the readvance caused sea-level rise near the ice margin due to increased gravitational attraction toward the ice sheet and crustal subsidence. We estimate ice growth in Southwestern Greenland using geomorphological indicators and lake core data from previous literature. We calculate the effect of ice growth on regional sea level by applying our ice history to a geophysical model of sea level with a resolution of ~1 km across Southwestern Greenland and compare the results to archaeological evidence. The results indicate that sea level rose up to ~3.3 m outside the glaciation zone during Viking settlement, producing shoreline retreat of hundreds of meters. Sea-level rise was progressive and encompassed the entire Eastern Settlement. Moreover, pervasive flooding would have forced abandonment of many coastal sites. These processes likely contributed to the suite of vulnerabilities that led to Viking abandonment of Greenland. Sea-level change thus represents an integral, missing element of the Viking story.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Endothermic physiology of extinct megatooth sharks

The evolution of the extinct megatooth shark, Otodus megalodon , and its close phylogenetic relatives remains enigmatic. A central question persists regarding the thermophysiological origins of these large predatory sharks through geologic time, including whether O. megalodon was ectothermic or endothermic (including regional endothermy), and whether its thermophysiology could help to explain the iconic shark’s gigantism and eventual demise during the Pliocene. To address these uncertainties, we present unique geochemical evidence for thermoregulation in O. megalodon from both clumped isotope paleothermometry and phosphate oxygen isotopes. Our results show that O. megalodon had an overall warmer body temperature compared with its ambient environment and other coexisting shark species, providing quantitative and experimental support for recent biophysical modeling studies that suggest endothermy was one of the key drivers for gigantism in O. megalodon and other lamniform sharks. The gigantic body size with high metabolic costs of having high body temperatures may have contributed to the vulnerability of Otodus species to extinction when compared to other sympatric sharks that survived the Pliocene epoch.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Interactions between nonfullerene acceptors lead to unstable ternary organic photovoltaic cells

For organic photovoltaic (OPV) devices to achieve consistent performance and long operational lifetimes, organic semiconductors must be processed with precise control over their purity, composition, and structure. This is particularly important for high volume solar cell manufacturing where control of materials quality has a direct impact on yield and cost. Ternary-blend OPVs containing two acceptor–donor–acceptor (A–D–A)-type nonfullerene acceptors (NFAs) and a donor have proven to be an effective strategy to improve solar spectral coverage and reduce energy losses beyond that of binary-blend OPVs. Here, we show that the purity of such a ternary is compromised during blending to form a homogeneously mixed bulk heterojunction thin film. We find that the impurities originate from end-capping C=C/C=C exchange reactions of A–D–A-type NFAs, and that their presence influences both device reproducibility and long-term reliability. The end-capping exchange results in generation of up to four impurity constituents with strong dipolar character that interfere with the photoinduced charge transfer process, leading to reduced charge generation efficiency, morphological instabilities, and an increased vulnerability to photodegradation. As a consequence, the OPV efficiency falls to less than 65% of its initial value within 265 h when exposed to up to 10 suns intensity illumination. We propose potential molecular design strategies critical to enhancing the reproducibility as well as reliability of ternary OPVs by avoiding end-capping reactions.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models

Arid and semi-arid regions of the world are particularly vulnerable to greenhouse gas–driven hydroclimate change. Climate models are our primary tool for projecting the future hydroclimate that society in these regions must adapt to, but here, we present a concerning discrepancy between observed and model-based historical hydroclimate trends. Over the arid/semi-arid regions of the world, the predominant signal in all model simulations is an increase in atmospheric water vapor, on average, over the last four decades, in association with the increased water vapor–holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. In observations, this increase in atmospheric water vapor has not happened, suggesting that the availability of moisture to satisfy the increased atmospheric demand is lower in reality than in models in arid/semi-arid regions. This discrepancy is most clear in locations that are arid/semi-arid year round, but it is also apparent in more humid regions during the most arid months of the year. Here, it indicates a major gap in our understanding and modeling capabilities which could have severe implications for hydroclimate projections, including fire hazard, moving forward.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A bioenergy-focused versus a reforestation-focused mitigation pathway yields disparate carbon storage and climate responses

Limiting global warming to 2 °C requires urgent action on land-based mitigation. This study evaluates the biogeochemical and biogeophysical implications of two alternative land-based mitigation scenarios that aim to achieve the same radiative forcing. One scenario is primarily driven by bioenergy expansion (SSP226Lu-BIOCROP), while the other involves re/afforestation (SSP126Lu-REFOREST). We find that overall, SSP126Lu-REFOREST is a more efficient strategy for removing CO2 from the atmosphere by 2100, resulting in a net carbon sink of 242 ~ 483 PgC with smaller uncertainties compared to SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, which exhibits a wider range of -78 ~ 621 PgC. However, SSP126Lu-REFOREST leads to a relatively warmer planetary climate than SSP226Lu-BIOCROP, and this relative warming can be intensified in certain re/afforested regions where local climates are not favorable for tree growth. Despite the cooling effect on a global scale, SSP226Lu-BIOCROP reshuffles regional warming hotspots, amplifying summer temperatures in vulnerable tropical regions such as Central Africa and Southeast Asia. Our findings highlight the need for strategic land use planning to identify suitable regions for re/afforestation and bioenergy expansion, thereby improving the likelihood of achieving the intended climate mitigation outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Urbanization and edge effects interact to drive mutualism breakdown and the rise of unstable pathogenic communities in forest soil

Temperate forests are threatened by urbanization and fragmentation, with over 20% (118,300 km 2 ) of U.S. forest land projected to be subsumed by urban land development. We leveraged a unique, well-characterized urban-to-rural and forest edge-to-interior gradient to identify the combined impact of these two land use changes—urbanization and forest edge creation—on the soil microbial community in native remnant forests. We found evidence of mutualism breakdown between trees and their fungal root mutualists [ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungi] with urbanization, where ECM fungi colonized fewer tree roots and had less connectivity in soil microbiome networks in urban forests compared to rural forests. However, urbanization did not reduce the relative abundance of ECM fungi in forest soils; instead, forest edges alone led to strong reductions in ECM fungal abundance. At forest edges, ECM fungi were replaced by plant and animal pathogens, as well as copiotrophic, xenobiotic-degrading, and nitrogen-cycling bacteria, including nitrifiers and denitrifiers. Urbanization and forest edges interacted to generate new “suites” of microbes, with urban interior forests harboring highly homogenized microbiomes, while edge forest microbiomes were more heterogeneous and less stable, showing increased vulnerability to low soil moisture. When scaled to the regional level, we found that forest soils are projected to harbor high abundances of fungal pathogens and denitrifying bacteria, even in rural areas, due to the widespread existence of forest edges. Our results highlight the potential for soil microbiome dysfunction—including increased greenhouse gas production—in temperate forest regions that are subsumed by urban expansion, both now and in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Extreme drought impacts have been underestimated in grasslands and shrublands globally

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events—the most common duration of drought—globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function—aboveground net primary production (ANPP)—was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Environmental drivers of spatial variation in tropical forest canopy height: Insights from NASA’s GEDI spaceborne LiDAR

Forest canopy height is a fundamental ecosystem property—influencing patterns of forest carbon storage and forest ecosystem responses to climate variability and change. Previous studies have analyzed environmental drivers influencing spatial variation in canopy height at landscape-to-regional scales; however, far less is known about the environmental determinants underlying regional and global scale variation in forest canopy height. Using the canopy height metrics products from Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI), a space-borne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) instrument specifically designed to characterize forest structure, we analyze the environmental correlates of spatial variation of global tropical forest canopy height. Our study demonstrates that climate, topography, and soil properties account for 75% of the variation in tropical forest canopy height. Elevation, dry season length, and solar radiation are the most important drivers in determining canopy height both locally and regionally. These results emphasize the vulnerability of tropical forest structure to ongoing changes in the earth’s climate and provide a valuable empirical baseline for tropical forest management.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

Evaluating Methods of Software Bill of Materials Generation to Enhance Nuclear Power Plant Cybersecurity

Instrumentation and control (I&C) systems in nuclear power plants (NPPs) are potential targets of cyberattacks and can prove deleterious for the safety of the NPPs. A Software Bill of Materials (SBOM) provides a detailed list of the various components and their dependencies in software, which helps in vulnerability and risk assessment for cyber hygiene and situational awareness. For an NPP, the process of generating an accurate SBOM report can be complex due to the legacy systems and firmware binaries involved. While most current SBOM tools are focused more on modern internet technology software, this research provides insights and guidelines for an NPP to generate an accurate and efficient SBOM. Here, the paper proposes a new methodology to help NPPs categorize software and use appropriate tools to generate SBOMs for their digital I&C systems.

SBOM↗

A Machine Learning Method for the Forensics Attribution of Separated Plutonium

Plutonium (Pu) source attribution would be a powerful tool to support nuclear nonproliferation efforts. This capability to find the source of a Pu sample would act as a deterrent to smuggling efforts, and also help regulatory agencies verify declared nuclear activities. Work at Texas A&M University yielded a nuclear forensics methodology, which is capable of determining separated Pu’s reactor of origin, fuel burnup, and the time since irradiation (TSI)—three parameters of interest. The methodology used a set of ten intra-element isotopic ratios found in separated Pu, which was compared to a library of isotopic ratio values produced using neutronics simulations for reactors of interest. By calculating the probability that unknown Pu sample’s isotopic ratio set matched a set in the library, the methodology could predict the three parameters of interest of the sample. One shortcoming of this methodology was an inability to correctly attribute spoofed Pu, where Pu sourced from two different reactors or two different fuel burnup levels are mixed. A new methodology to rectify this vulnerability using machine learning (ML) technique is developed, instead of the maximum likelihood calculation previously used and the results are satisfactory. The ML approach leverages the existing simulated data for training the algorithm, but use them efficiently by only using intra-element isotope ratios that contribute to the attribution one of the three parameters at a time. Previously, all isotope ratios were used to attribute all three parameters together. The new methodology attributes the Pu parameters in three steps, one for each parameter, rather than resolving all of the three parameters simultaneously like the previous maximum likelihood approach. First, a support vector machine classifier with a set of seven isotopic ratios finds the reactor of origin and a set of regression models trained using gaussian process predicts the burnup with a different set of seven isotopes. Finally, TSI is calculated analytically using decay equations. Thus far, the new methodology is capable of attributing pure Pu samples and has been validated using experimental data. The next step will to be augment the classifier training data set with spoofed Pu data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Deceptive Infusion of Data: A Novel Data Masking Paradigm for High-Valued Systems

This work addresses how analysts of a high-valued system (e.g., nuclear reactor, aircraft turbine designs) can extract findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable scientific data for public dissemination to artificial intelligence and machine-learning (AI/ML) researchers in a manner that cannot be reverse-engineered, potentially compromising sensitive or proprietary information. State-of-the-art methods address this problem through data masking techniques, which allow access to a subset of the information while obfuscating private and potentially identifying information (e.g., personally identifying medical data). These methods are unsuitable for industrial engineering processes, where AI/ML tools need explicit access to all the data available to draw the best inference about the system to help optimize its performance and identify its vulnerabilities, etc. Our novel deceptive infusion of data paradigm provides a solution to this conundrum by developing a mathematical approach capable of concealing the identity of the system while providing full access to all the features employed by AI/ML tools to ensure their optimal performance.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

An Evaluation and Qualification of U.S.-Based Research Reactors for Irradiation Capabilities Supporting Advanced Nuclear Systems

Irradiation experiments are a prerequisite for evaluating nuclear reactor system designs, analyzing the performance of these systems, and obtaining licenses. Likewise, irradiation facilities are necessary for producing the radioisotopes used in industrial and medical applications. Recent developments in modeling and simulation capabilities and advancements in computational resources have further enabled the design of irradiation experiments for evaluating radiation-induced phenomena and determining nuclear fuel, material, and system design and safety criteria pertaining to both normal and accident scenarios. These computational tools and models require comprehensive experimental datasets acquired under prototypic radiation conditions—for exploring material and system performance under the uniquely harsh environments found in nuclear reactors—to enable verification and validation for qualification and licensing purposes. However, qualification of irradiation experimental facilities, primarily research and test reactors (RTRs), necessitates that their performance be evaluated based on the irradiation environment (e.g. flux, power, testing capabilities) using an appropriate scoring matrix. Although many university campus RTRs are available for research and development (R&D) activities and initiatives, this study focuses on evaluating and qualifying the irradiation facilities (mostly RTRs) within the United States that are suitable for advanced nuclear fuel, material, and system irradiation experiments aimed at establishing operational-performance limits and informing component and fuel designs so as to improve operational efficiencies and mitigate proliferation vulnerabilities, as well as for radioisotope production aimed at multipurpose applications. As a result, the findings of the present study support the acceleration of nuclear fuel and material qualifications, thus hastening new and advanced nuclear energy system demonstrations and radioisotope production efforts by using extended R&D.

irradiation experiment↗

Nuclear forensics: How science helps stop the trafficking of nuclear materials

Nuclear forensics is an essential activity in support of national counter-nuclear smuggling operations, as it can be used to provide unique and useful data to law enforcement for the prosecution of criminal nuclear smugglers and traffickers. Nuclear forensics can also be used to determine the origin of nuclear materials that have fallen out of regulatory control, allowing for the identification of weaknesses and vulnerabilities in the safeguarding of nuclear materials, while also generating a deterrent effect through attribution to the legal and responsible owners of nuclear materials out of regulatory control. This article describes the benefits of a nuclear forensics capability to any country in possession of nuclear materials, and describes how nuclear forensics can support an investigation into the origin of interdicted nuclear materials, using a case study of a nuclear materials interdiction in Australia to describe how nuclear forensics works in practice.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A global assessment of policy tools to support climate adaptation

Governments, businesses, and civil society organizations have diverse policy tools to incentivize adaptation. Policy tools can shape the type and extent of adaptation, and therefore, function either as barriers or enablers for reducing risk and vulnerability. Using data from a systematic review of academic literature on global adaptation responses to climate change (n = 1549 peer-reviewed articles), we categorize the types of policy tools used to shape climate adaptation. We apply qualitative and quantitative analyses to assess the contexts where particular tools are used, along with equity implications for groups targeted by the tools, and the tools’ relationships with transformational adaptation indicators such as the depth, scope, and speed of adaptation. We find diverse types of tools documented across sectors and geographic regions. We also identify a mismatch between the tools that consider equity and those that yield more transformational adaptations. Direct regulations, plans, and capacity building are associated with higher depth and scope of adaptation (thus transformational adaptation), while economic instruments, information provisioning, and networks are not; the latter tools, however, are more likely to target marginalized groups in their design and implementation. We identify multiple research gaps, including a need to assess instrument mixes rather than single tools and to assess adaptations that result from policy implementation. Key policy insights Information-based approaches, networks, and economic instruments are the most frequently documented adaptation policy tools worldwide. Direct regulations, plans, and capacity building are associated with higher depth and scope of adaptation, and thus more transformational adaptation. Capacity building, economic instruments, networks, and information provisioning approaches are more likely to target specific marginalized groups and thus equity challenges. There are many regions and sectors where certain tools are not widely documented (e.g. regulations and plans in Africa and Asia), representing a key research gap.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗