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At least 811 records · Page 45
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental Validation of a 40kW, 480V Point-to-Point DC Interlinks for Controller-Agnostic, Interoperable Networked Microgrids

This paper presents the experimental validation of point-to-point dc-interlinks for interconnecting two solar-based, laboratory-scale AC microgrids. DC interlinks provide a solution to numerous technical and operational challenges encountered in networked microgrids, including precise power flow control, stable and fast synchronization, enhanced stability, and improved voltage and frequency regulation. By decoupling microgrids through power converters, dc-interlinks enable power exchange among microgrids that can be owned by different entities (such as communities, utilities, or universities) and managed by diverse microgrid controller vendors. This characteristic makes this dc-interlinks a promising solution for networking real-world microgrids. The presented point-to-point dc interlink utilizes two four-quadrant converters: a 40kW 3-phase ac/dc regulating the dc-link voltage to 800V, and a 3-phase dc/ac controlling power flow. These converters, connected via a 20-foot dc cable, interconnect two ac microgrids operating at 480V, each featuring energy storage, photovoltaic generation, and load emulation. Experimental validation employs commercially available off-the-shelf (COTS) converters and real-world data from solar-powered microgrids in Adjuntas, Puerto Rico. To the authors’ knowledge, this work provides the first at-scale experimental validation of dc-interlinks for networked ac microgrids using COTS inverters, demonstrating their practicality and effectiveness in addressing real-world operational challenges.

Ferrari Maglia, Max [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2017

Data-Driven Residential Load Modeling and Validation in GridLAB-D

Accurately characterizing the impacts of high penetrations of distributed energy resources (DER) on the electric distribution system has driven modeling methods from traditional static snap shots, often representing a critical point in time (e.g., summer peak load), to quasi-static time series (QSTS) simulations capturing all the effects of variable DER, associated controls and hence, impacts on the distribution system over a given time period. Unfortunately, the high time resolution DER source and load data required for model inputs is often scarce or non-existent. This paper presents work performed within the GridLAB-D model environment to synthesize, calibrate, and validate 1-second residential load models based on measured transformer loads and physics-based models suitable for QSTS electric distribution system modeling. The modeling and validation approach taken was to create a typical GridLAB-D model home that, when replicated to represent multiple diverse houses on a single transformer, creates a statistically similar load to a measured load for a given weather input. The model homes are constructed to represent the range of actual homes on an instrumented transformer: square footage, thermal integrity, heating and cooling system definition as well as realistic occupancy schedules. House model calibration and validation was performed using the distribution transformer load data and corresponding weather. The modeled loads were found to be similar to the measured loads for four evaluation metrics: 1) daily average energy, 2) daily average and standard deviation of power, 3) power spectral density, and 4) load shape.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Towards Validation of Advanced Accelerated Stress Testing Protocols through Failure Analysis and Materials Characterization

As the lifetime of photovoltaic modules increases toward the goal of 50 years, accelerated stress testing is critical to assessing the viability of newer, improved, and often cheaper materials in the field. However, the validation of accelerated testing to reproduce field failure has remained elusive. The recent developments of more advanced stress testing protocols utilizing sequential and combined stressors have provided another opportunity for validation. Using a suite of mechanical, chemical, and structural characterization methods we report the development of our approach using a known bad backsheet “AAA.” We then apply this approach to PVDF-based backsheets to further confirm the generalizability of this approach. The outcome of this work is two-fold: (1) validation of advanced accelerated testing protocols which will enable the prediction of field failures in new materials, and (2) deeper insights into the degradation mechanisms observed through the extensive characterization allowing for improved materials engineering and development.

accelerated aging↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nanosecond Transient Validation of Surge Arrester Models to Predict Electromagnetic Pulse Response

The impact of high-altitude electromagnetic pulse events on the electric grid is not fully understood, and validated modeling of mitigations, such as lightning surge arresters (LSAs) is necessary to predict the propagation of very fast transients on the grid. Experimental validation of high frequency models for surge arresters is an active area of research. Further, this article serves to experimentally validate a previously defined ZnO LSA model using four metal-oxide varistor pucks and nanosecond scale pulses to measure voltage and current responses. The SPICE circuit models of the pucks showed good predictability when compared to the measured arrester response when accounting for a testbed inductance of approximately 100 nH. Additionally, the comparatively high capacitance of low-profile arresters show a favorable response to high-speed transients that indicates the potential for effective electromagnetic pulse mitigation with future materials design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Validation techniques for fault emulation of SRAM-based FPGAs

A variety of fault emulation systems have been created to study the effect of single-event effects (SEEs) in static random access memory (SRAM) based field-programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). These systems are useful for augmenting radiation-hardness assurance (RHA) methodologies for verifying the effectiveness for mitigation techniques; understanding error signatures and failure modes in FPGAs; and failure rate estimation. For radiation effects researchers, it is important that these systems properly emulate how SEEs manifest in FPGAs. If the fault emulation systems does not mimic the radiation environment, the system will generate erroneous data and incorrect predictions of behavior of the FPGA in a radiation environment. Validation determines whether the emulated faults are reasonable analogs to the radiation-induced faults. In this study we present methods for validating fault emulation systems and provide several examples of validated FPGA fault emulation systems.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2016

Economic analysis of model validation for a challenge problem

It is now commonplace for engineers to build mathematical models of the systems they are designing, building, or testing. And, it is nearly universally accepted that phenomenological models of physical systems must be validated prior to use for prediction in consequential scenarios. Yet, there are certain situations in which testing only or no testing and no modeling may be economically viable alternatives to modeling and its associated testing. This paper develops an economic framework within which benefit–cost can be evaluated for modeling and model validation relative to other options. The development is presented in terms of a challenge problem. As a result, we provide a numerical example that quantifies when modeling, calibration, and validation yield higher benefit–cost than a testing only or no modeling and no testing option.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Processing Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainties in Experimental Data From Sparse Replicate Tests of Stochastic Systems for Real-Space Model Validation

This paper presents a practical methodology for propagating and processing uncertainties associated with random measurement and estimation errors (that vary from test-to-test) and systematic measurement and estimation errors (uncertain but similar from test-to-test) in inputs and outputs of replicate tests to characterize response variability of stochastically varying test units. Also treated are test condition control variability from test-to-test and sampling uncertainty due to limited numbers of replicate tests. These aleatory variabilities and epistemic uncertainties result in uncertainty on computed statistics of output response quantities. The methodology was developed in the context of processing experimental data for “real-space” (RS) model validation comparisons against model-predicted statistics and uncertainty thereof. The methodology is flexible and sufficient for many types of experimental and data uncertainty, offering the most extensive data uncertainty quantification (UQ) treatment of any model validation method the authors are aware of. It handles both interval and probabilistic uncertainty descriptions and can be performed with relatively little computational cost through use of simple and effective dimension- and order-adaptive polynomial response surfaces in a Monte Carlo (MC) uncertainty propagation approach. A key feature of the progressively upgraded response surfaces is that they enable estimation of propagation error contributed by the surrogate model. Sensitivity analysis of the relative contributions of the various uncertainty sources to the total uncertainty of statistical estimates is also presented. Finally, the methodologies are demonstrated on real experimental validation data involving all the mentioned sources and types of error and uncertainty in five replicate tests of pressure vessels heated and pressurized to failure. Simple spreadsheet procedures are used for all processing operations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Experimental validation of a kilovoltage x-ray source model for computing imaging dose

Purpose: To introduce and validate a kilovoltage (kV) x-ray source model and characterization method to compute absorbed dose accrued from kV x-rays. Methods: The authors propose a simplified virtual point source model and characterization method for a kV x-ray source. The source is modeled by: (1) characterizing the spatial spectral and fluence distributions of the photons at a plane at the isocenter, and (2) creating a virtual point source from which photons are generated to yield the derived spatial spectral and fluence distribution at isocenter of an imaging system. The spatial photon distribution is determined by in-air relative dose measurements along the transverse (x) and radial (y) directions. The spectrum is characterized using transverse axis half-value layer measurements and the nominal peak potential (kVp). This source modeling approach is used to characterize a Varian{sup ®} on-board-imager (OBI{sup ®}) for four default cone-beam CT beam qualities: beams using a half bowtie filter (HBT) with 110 and 125 kVp, and a full bowtie filter (FBT) with 100 and 125 kVp. The source model and characterization method was validated by comparing dose computed by the authors’ inhouse software (kVDoseCalc) to relative dose measurements in a homogeneous and a heterogeneous block phantom comprised of tissue, bone, and lung-equivalent materials. Results: The characterized beam qualities and spatial photon distributions are comparable to reported values in the literature. Agreement between computed and measured percent depth-dose curves is ⩽2% in the homogeneous block phantom and ⩽2.5% in the heterogeneous block phantom. Transverse axis profiles taken at depths of 2 and 6 cm in the homogeneous block phantom show an agreement within 4%. All transverse axis dose profiles in water, in bone, and lung-equivalent materials for beams using a HBT, have an agreement within 5%. Measured profiles of FBT beams in bone and lung-equivalent materials were higher than their computed counterparts resulting in an agreement within 2.5%, 5%, and 8% within solid water, bone, and lung, respectively. Conclusions: The proposed virtual point source model and characterization method can be used to compute absorbed dose in both the homogeneous and heterogeneous block phantoms within of 2%–8% of measured values, depending on the phantom and the beam quality. The authors’ results also provide experimental validation for their kV dose computation software, kVDoseCalc.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-C-201-07: Validation of a GATE Gamma Camera Model for the Siemens Symbia

Purpose: To develop a simulation model of a clinical gamma camera/SPECT system and to validate the model using experimental and published measurements from the clinical system. Methods: Geant4 Application for Tomographic Emission (GATE) was used to create a model of the Siemens Symbia gamma camera. A modular model was implemented that allows specifying combinations of crystal thickness (3/8”, 5/8”) and collimator (LEHR, MELP, HE). Shielding, energy resolution, intrinsic resolution, crystal thickness, and collimator properties were set based on manufacturer specifications. Validation of the model was performed by simulating NEMA 2007 gamma camera tests including spatial resolution and sensitivity for Tc99; these were compared with experimental and published data for the scanner. The simulated energy spectra of a Tc99 line source in acrylic blocks was visually compared with the corresponding experimental acquisition. For a 4 cm diameter sphere filled with Tc99, the attenuation maps were generated from simulation data, and the photopeak and scatter window were extracted from GATE output using ROOT to create DICOM files to use in the clinical reconstruction. Results: Simulated spatial resolutions for LEHR 3/8” crystal at 0, 10 cm, 10 cm (with scatter), and 30 cm were 4, 6.7, 7.9, and 14.5 mm FWHM; these were 9% less than published data. For 5/8” crystal the spatial resolutions were 4.5, 7.0, 8.5, and 14.7 mm FWHM; these were 4% to 10% less than published data. Simulated sensitivity was within 3.5% of published data for both LEHR 3/8” and 5/8”. The simulated energy spectra matched the photopeak and scatter window well, but did overestimate the counts below 90 keV. The simulated attenuation map and projection data were successfully reconstructed with the clinical software, and the passed visual inspection. Conclusions: Validation of a specific clinical scanner allows future studies of quantification accuracy for both planar and SPECT imaging. Research reported in this publication was supported by the National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health under Award Number R01CA138986. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-J-244: Development and Validation of a Knowledge Based Planning Model for External Beam Radiation Therapy of Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: The study aims to develop and validate a knowledge based planning (KBP) model for external beam radiation therapy of locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (LA-NSCLC). Methods: RapidPlan™ technology was used to develop a lung KBP model. Plans from 65 patients with LA-NSCLC were used to train the model. 25 patients were treated with VMAT, and the other patients were treated with IMRT. Organs-at-risk (OARs) included right lung, left lung, heart, esophagus, and spinal cord. DVH and geometric distribution DVH were extracted from the treated plans. The model was trained using principal component analysis and step-wise multiple regression. Box plot and regression plot tools were used to identify geometric outliers and dosimetry outliers and help fine-tune the model. The validation was performed by (a) comparing predicted DVH boundaries to actual DVHs of 63 patients and (b) using an independent set of treatment planning data. Results: 63 out of 65 plans were included in the final KBP model with PTV volume ranging from 102.5cc to 1450.2cc. Total treatment dose prescription varied from 50Gy to 70Gy based on institutional guidelines. One patient was excluded due to geometric outlier where 2.18cc of spinal cord was included in PTV. The other patient was excluded due to dosimetric outlier where the dose sparing to spinal cord was heavily enforced in the clinical plan. Target volume, OAR volume, OAR overlap volume percentage to target, and OAR out-of-field volume were included in the trained model. Lungs and heart had two principal component scores of GEDVH, whereas spinal cord and esophagus had three in the final model. Predicted DVH band (mean ±1 standard deviation) represented 66.2±3.6% of all DVHs. Conclusion: A KBP model was developed and validated for radiotherapy of LA-NSCLC in a commercial treatment planning system. The clinical implementation may improve the consistency of IMRT/VMAT planning.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

A mouse radiation-induced liver disease model for stereotactic body radiation therapy validated in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Purpose: Lower radiation tolerance of the whole liver hinders dose escalations of stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treatment. This study was conducted to define the exact doses that result in radiation-induced liver disease (RILD) as well as to determine dose constraints for the critical organs at risk (OARs) in mice; these parameters are still undefined in HCC SBRT. Methods: This study consisted of two phases. In the primary phase, mice treated with helical tomotherapy-based SBRT were stratified according to escalating radiation doses to the livers. The pathological differences, signs [such as mouse performance status (MPS)], and serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/alanine aminotransferase (ALT)/albumin levels were observed. Radiation-induced disease severities of the OARs were scored using systematic evaluation standards. In the validation phase in humans, 13 patients with HCC who had undergone radiotherapy before hepatectomy were enrolled to validate RILD pathological changes in a mouse study. Results: The evaluation criteria of the mouse liver radiotherapy-related signs were as follows: MPS ≥ 2.0 ± 0.52, AST/ALT ≥ 589.2 ± 118.5/137.4 ± 15.3 U/L, serum albumin ≤ 16.8 ± 2.29 g/L. The preliminary dose constraints of the OARs were also obtained, such as those for the liver (average dose ≤ 26.36 ± 1.71 Gy) and gastrointestinal tract (maximum dose ≤ 22.63 Gy). Mouse RILD models were able to be developed when the livers were irradiated with average doses of ≥31.76 ± 1.94 Gy (single fraction). RILD pathological changes in mice have also been validated in HCC patients. Conclusions: Mouse RILD models could be developed with SBRT based on the dose constraints for the OARs and evaluation criteria of mouse liver radiotherapy-related signs, and the authors’ results favor the study of further approaches to treat HCC with SBRT.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

MO-B-BRB-03: 3D Dosimetry in the Clinic: Validating Special Techniques

Full three-dimensional (3D) dosimetry using volumetric chemical dosimeters probed by 3D imaging systems has long been a promising technique for the radiation therapy clinic, since it provides a unique methodology for dose measurements in the volume irradiated using complex conformal delivery techniques such as IMRT and VMAT. To date true 3D dosimetry is still not widely practiced in the community; it has been confined to centres of specialized expertise especially for quality assurance or commissioning roles where other dosimetry techniques are difficult to implement. The potential for improved clinical applicability has been advanced considerably in the last decade by the development of improved 3D dosimeters (e.g., radiochromic plastics, radiochromic gel dosimeters and normoxic polymer gel systems) and by improved readout protocols using optical computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging. In this session, established users of some current 3D chemical dosimeters will briefly review the current status of 3D dosimetry, describe several dosimeters and their appropriate imaging for dose readout, present workflow procedures required for good dosimetry, and analyze some limitations for applications in select settings. We will review the application of 3D dosimetry to various clinical situations describing how 3D approaches can complement other dose delivery validation approaches already available in the clinic. The applications presented will be selected to inform attendees of the unique features provided by full 3D techniques. Learning Objectives: L. John Schreiner: Background and Motivation Understand recent developments enabling clinically practical 3D dosimetry, Appreciate 3D dosimetry workflow and dosimetry procedures, and Observe select examples from the clinic. Sofie Ceberg: Application to dynamic radiotherapy Observe full dosimetry under dynamic radiotherapy during respiratory motion, and Understand how the measurement of high resolution dose data in an irradiated volume can help understand interplay effects during TomoTherapy or VMAT. Titania Juang: Special techniques in the clinic and research Understand the potential for 3D dosimetry in validating dose accumulation in deformable systems, and Observe the benefits of high resolution measurements for precision therapy in SRS and in MicroSBRT for small animal irradiators Geoffrey S. Ibbott: 3D Dosimetry in end-to-end dosimetry QA Understand the potential for 3D dosimetry for end-to-end radiation therapy process validation in the in-house and external credentialing setting. Canadian Institutes of Health Research; L. Schreiner, Modus QA, London, ON, Canada; T. Juang, NIH R01CA100835.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenges and opportunities in verification and validation of low temperature plasma simulations and experiments

This paper describes the verification and validation (V&V) framework developed for the stochastic Particle-in-Cell, Direct Simulation Monte Carlo code Aleph. An ideal framework for V&V from the viewpoint of the authors is described where a physics problem is defined, and relevant physics models and parameters to the defined problem are assessed and captured in a Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT). Furthermore, numerous V&V examples guided by the PIRT for a simple gas discharge are shown to demonstrate the V&V process applied to a real-world simulation tool with the overall goal to demonstrably increase the confidence in the results for the simulation tool and its predictive capability. Although many examples are provided here to demonstrate elements of the framework, the primary goal of this work is to introduce this framework and not to provide a fully complete implementation, which would be a much longer document. Comparisons and contrasts are made to more usual approaches to V&V, and techniques new to the low-temperature plasma community are introduced. Specific challenges relating to the sufficiency of available data (e.g., cross sections), the limits of ad hoc validation approaches, the additional difficulty of utilizing a stochastic simulation tool, and the extreme cost of formal validation are discussed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Visual Analytic Platform for Interactive Validation of Human Mobility Simulations

Human mobility insights guide domain experts in an array of decisions, including critical infrastructure design, disaster response, epidemic modeling, national security, and policy making. Due to the inherent noise and privacy concerns in real-world individual-level mobility data, it is often preferred to leverage simulators that generate synthetic mobility data instead. However, it is critical to inspect and validate the output of such simulators to ensure the synthetic data is aligned with the characteristics of the population and the area of interest known to domain experts. While there exist many quantitative approaches for validating synthetic data, we argue it is also important to also validate such data qualitatively to capture aspects that are known to domain experts but difficult to quantify. In this work, we demonstrate a visual analytic platform that empowers domain experts to interact with their simulation outputs along spatial and temporal dimensions. By augmenting automated techniques and human skills, our visual analytic platform is a step towards interactive capabilities for model steering and quality control of mobility simulators.

Monadjemi, Shayan↗
DOE OSTI2021

Challenging Practices of Algebraic Battery Life Models through Statistical Validation and Model Identification via Machine-Learning

Various modeling techniques are used to predict the capacity fade of Li-ion batteries. Algebraic reduced-order models, which are inherently interpretable and computationally fast, are ideal for use in battery controllers, technoeconomic models, and multi-objective optimizations. For Li-ion batteries with graphite anodes, solid-electrolyte-interphase (SEI) growth on the graphite surface dominates fade. This fade is often modeled using physically informed equations, such as square-root of time for predicting solvent-diffusion limited SEI growth, and Arrhenius and Tafel-like equations predicting the temperature and state-of-charge rate dependencies. In some cases, completely empirical relationships are proposed. However, statistical validation is rarely conducted to evaluate model optimality, and only a handful of possible models are usually investigated. This article demonstrates a novel procedure for automatically identifying reduced-order degradation models from millions of algorithmically generated equations via bi-level optimization and symbolic regression. Identified models are statistically validated using cross-validation, sensitivity analysis, and uncertainty quantification via bootstrapping. On a LiFePO 4 /Graphite cell calendar aging data set, automatically identified models utilizing square-root, power law, stretched exponential, and sigmoidal functions result in greater accuracy and lower uncertainty than models identified by human experts, and demonstrate that previously known physical relationships can be empirically "rediscovered" using machine learning.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sockeye Validation Support Using the SPHERE Facility

The engineering-scale heat pipe application Sockeye, being developed through the Nuclear En- ergy Advanced Modeling and Simulation program is concurrently undergoing code development and verification and validation activities. The Single Primary Heat Extraction and Removal Emu- lator (SPHERE) facility at Idaho National Laboratory has performed numerous sodium heat pipe experiments, one of which is modeled in this work to support Sockeye validation. Heat pipe data produced by the SPHERE facility was found to be very useful not only for Sockeye validation but also as a useful resource for model development. A Sockeye simulation performed using Sockeye’s conduction model modeled an experimental run at SPHERE and was found to be able to accurately reproduce the steady temperature distribution but revealed discrepancies in transient behavior after shutoff of the power. This effort also revealed a number of challenges of modeling an experimental setup such as SPHERE, for example, the importance of details in the setup such as possible gaps in insulation. Also, continuous collaboration between Sockeye developers and SPHERE experimentalists has been established, which allows future experiments to be refined in response to questions and challenges found by simulating earlier experiments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Caribbean deepwater snappers: Application of the bomb radiocarbon age estimation validation in understanding aspects of ecology and life history

Reef fishes have been utilized as food fish throughout the U.S. Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico waters for centuries, with increasing fishing effort in recent decades. As a result, many species have experienced declines in landings, including deepwater snappers such as queen snapper Etelis oculatus and blackfin snapper Lutjanus buccanella . However, little to no peer-reviewed published research exists on basic life history parameters for either species. Confirming the accuracy of an age estimation method for a fish species is essential for ensuring sustainable fisheries management. This is because in the assessment of fisheries species population age-based parameters, including longevity, age at sexual maturity, growth rate, mortality, age-specific reproductive output, and lifetime reproductive output, are important in understanding overall life history strategies of managed stocks. The past stock assessment on U.S. Caribbean queen snapper utilized an estimated longevity of 8 y, derived from length frequencies for fish from St. Lucia. Blackfin snapper has an estimated longevity of 27 y based on a relatively small study from offshore waters of the southeastern U.S. The focus of our investigation was to estimate maximum longevity of two data-poor species in the U.S. Caribbean. The accuracy of ageing methods was tested via bomb radiocarbon age estimation validation and effects of depth on Δ 14 C in otolith cores and eye lens core values were examined. Results from our work indicate a maximum validated age of 45 y for queen snapper, and 43 y for blackfin snapper. Our findings indicate queen snapper and blackfin snapper are long-lived (> 40 y). The resulting Δ 14 C comparison between eye lens cores and otolith cores has important implications for the study of age validation, specifically when deepwater species are involved.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation of Fault Displacements from Dynamic Rupture Simulations against the Observations from the 1992 Landers Earthquake

ABSTRACT Coseismic fault displacements in large earthquakes have caused significant damage to structures and lifelines on and near fault lines. Coseismic displacements represent a real threat, especially to distributed infrastructure systems. For infrastructure systems that can not avoid active faults, engineering displacement demands are defined using probabilistic fault-displacement hazard analyses (PFDHA). However, PFDHA models are sparse and poorly constrained partly due to the scarcity of detailed fault-displacement observations. Advancements in dynamic rupture simulation methods make them an attractive approach to address this important issue. Because fault displacements can be simulated for various geologic conditions as constrained by current knowledge about earthquake processes, they can be used to supplement the observation datasets. In addition to providing on-fault displacements, when used with appropriate constitutive models for the bulk medium, they can capture off-fault distributed inelastic deformations as well. For viable extrapolation, simulations must first be validated against data. In this article, we summarize the calibration and validation of the dynamic rupture model against the observations of the well-documented 1992 Landers earthquake. We defined a preferred model that reproduces several first-order fault-displacement metrics such as the on-fault partition of the total displacement, the mean fault-zone width, and the location of the peak displacement. Simulated ground motions consistent with the observations ensure that all physics important to modeling have been properly parameterized. For the extrapolation, we generated a suite of dynamic rupture models to quantify expected fault-displacement metrics, their intercorrelations, and magnitude dependencies, which are in part supported by the Landers and other recent earthquakes. Our validation and extrapolation exercise paves the way for using dynamic rupture modeling to quantitatively address fault-displacement hazard on a broader scale. The results are promising and are expected to be useful to inform PFDHA model development.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗