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At least 811 records · Page 45

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NASA NTRS1994

Managing Action Duration Uncertainty with Just-In-Case Scheduling

Some applications involve automatic generation and execution of schedules that contain actions with uncertain durations. Such uncertainty can cause schedules to break during execution. This paper presents a technique, called Just-In-Case scheduling or JIC, for building robust schedules that tend not to break. The technique implements the common sense idea of being prepared for likely errors, just in case they should occur. The JIC algorithm analyzes a given schedule, determines where it is likely to break, reinvokes the scheduler to generate a contingent schedule for each highly probable break case, and produces a "multiply contingent" schedule. The technique was developed for a real telescope scheduling problem, and the paper presents empirical results showing that Just-In-Case scheduling performs extremely well for this problem.

Bresina, John↗

NASA NTRS2000

Evaluation of Trapped Radiation Model Uncertainties for Spacecraft Design

The standard AP8 and AE8 models for predicting trapped proton and electron environments have been compared with several sets of flight data to evaluate model uncertainties. Model comparisons are made with flux, dose, and activation measurements made on various U.S. low-Earth orbit satellites (APEX, CRRES, DMSP. LDEF, NOAA) and Space Shuttle flights, on Russian satellites (Photon-8, Cosmos-1887, Cosmos-2044), and on the Russian Mir space station. This report gives a summary of the model-data given in a companion report. Results from the model comparisons with flight data show, for example, that the AP8 model underpredicts the trapped proton flux at low altitudes by a factor of about two (independent of proton energy and solar cycle conditions), and that the AE8 model overpredict the flux in the outer electron belt be an order of magnitude or more.

Armstrong, T. W.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Structural Design Methodology Based on Concepts of Uncertainty

In this report, an approach to damage-tolerant aircraft structural design is proposed based on the concept of an equivalent "Level of Safety" that incorporates past service experience in the design of new structures. The discrete "Level of Safety" for a single inspection event is defined as the compliment of the probability that a single flaw size larger than the critical flaw size for residual strength of the structure exists, and that the flaw will not be detected. The cumulative "Level of Safety" for the entire structure is the product of the discrete "Level of Safety" values for each flaw of each damage type present at each location in the structure. Based on the definition of "Level of Safety", a design procedure was identified and demonstrated on a composite sandwich panel for various damage types, with results showing the sensitivity of the structural sizing parameters to the relative safety of the design. The "Level of Safety" approach has broad potential application to damage-tolerant aircraft structural design with uncertainty.

Lin, K. Y.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Evaluation of Trapped Radiation Model Uncertainties for Spacecraft Design

The standard AP8 and AE8 models for predicting trapped proton and electron environments have been compared with several sets of flight data to evaluate model uncertainties. Model comparisons are made with flux, dose, and activation measurements made on various U.S. low-Earth orbit satellites (APEX, CRRES, DMSP, LDEF, NOAA) and Space Shuttle flights, on Russian satellites (Photon-8, Cosmos-1887, Cosmos-2044), and on the Russian Mir Space Station. This report gives a summary of the model-data comparisons-detailed results are given in a companion report. Results from the model comparisons with flic,ht data show, for example, the AP8 model underpredicts the trapped proton flux at low altitudes by a factor of about two (independent of proton energy and solar cycle conditions), and that the AE8 model overpredicts the flux in the outer electron belt by an order of magnitude or more.

Armstrong, T. W.↗

NASA NTRS2000

GRACE Mission Design: Impact of Uncertainties in Disturbance Environment and Satellite Force Models

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) primary mission will be performed by making measurements of the inter-satellite range change between two co-planar, low altitude, near-polar orbiting satellites. Understanding the uncertainties in the disturbance environment, particularly the aerodynamic drag and torques, is critical in several mission areas. These include an accurate estimate of the spacecraft orbital lifetime, evaluation of spacecraft attitude control requirements, and estimation of the orbital maintenance maneuver frequency necessitated by differences in the drag forces acting on both satellites. The FREEMOL simulation software has been developed and utilized to analyze and suggest design modifications to the GRACE spacecraft. Aerodynamic accommodation bounding analyses were performed and worst-case envelopes were obtained for the aerodynamic torques and the differential ballistic coefficients between the leading and trailing GRACE spacecraft. These analyses demonstrate how spacecraft aerodynamic design and analysis can benefit from a better understanding of spacecraft surface accommodation properties, and the implications for mission design constraints such as formation spacing control.

Mazanek, Daniel D.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Launcher Systems Development Cost: Behavior, Uncertainty, Influences, Barriers and Strategies for Reduction

This paper will report on the activities of the IAA Launcher Systems Economics Working Group in preparations for its Launcher Systems Development Cost Behavior Study. The Study goals include: improve launcher system and other space system parametric cost analysis accuracy; improve launcher system and other space system cost analysis credibility; and provide launcher system and technology development program managers and other decisionmakers with useful information on development cost impacts of their decisions. The Working Group plans to explore at least the following five areas in the Study: define and explain development cost behavior terms and concepts for use in the Study; identify and quantify sources of development cost and cost estimating uncertainty; identify and quantify significant influences on development cost behavior; identify common barriers to development cost understanding and reduction; and recommend practical, realistic strategies to accomplish reductions in launcher system development cost.

Shaw, Eric J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Assessment of the Contribution of the Atmosphere to Uncertainties in Normalized Water-Leaving Radiance: A Combined Modeling and Data Analysis Approach

Our research for the Sensor Intercomparison and Merger for Biological and Interdisciplinary Oceanic Studies (SIMBIOS) program has been focused on modeling and simulation studies as well as the development of atmospheric correction algorithms. Based on our original proposal and discussions at the SIMBIOS team meetings and workshops, the objectives of our research can be summarized as follows: (1) Use our radiative transfer model for the coupled atmosphere-ocean system to simulate the radiation field at arbitrary levels and in any desired direction in the atmosphere and ocean so as to provide a firm connection between the signal received by the satellite sensor and by a sensor looking down into the water column just above the surface and just below it; (2) Use the simulations to quantify the influence of atmospheric aerosols on the water-leaving radiance, and to quantify the error in the water-leaving radiance as a function of uncertainties in the aerosol optical properties, mass loading and vertical extent; (3) Use the model simulations in conjunction with validation measurements taken by other SIMBIOS investigators (for satellite overpasses) to assess our understanding of the radiative transfer process in the coupled atmosphere-ocean column, and to examine the extent to which the model provides a realistic prediction of simultaneously measured in situ water-leaving radiance and the radiance received by the satellite sensor; (4) Modify and improve an existing atmospheric correction algorithm, based on the work above, as needed by constructing new look-up tables that include scattering by ocean particles; and (5) Carry out approaches to developing an atmospheric correction algorithm for ocean color imagery with strongly absorbing aerosols.

Stamnes, Knut↗

NASA NTRS1996

Uncertainty Analysis for Oil-Film Interferometry Skin-Friction Measurement Techniques

Over the past 20 years, the use of oil-film interferometry to measure the skin friction coefficient (C(sub f) = tau/q where tau is the surface shear stress and q is the dynamic pressure) has increased. Different forms of this oil-film technique with various levels of accuracy and ease of use have been successfully applied in a wide range of flows. The method's popularity is growing due to its relative ease of implementation and minimal intrusiveness as well as an increased demand for C(sub f) measurements. Nonetheless, the accuracy of these methods has not been rigorously addressed to date. Most researchers have simply shown that the skin-friction measurements made using these techniques compare favorably with other measurements and theory, most of which are only accurate to within 5-20%. The use of skin-friction data in the design of commercial aircraft, whose drag at cruise is 50% skin-friction drag, and in the validation of computational fluid dynamics programs warrants better uncertainty estimates. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Naughton, Jonathan W.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Modelling System Processes to Support Uncertainty Analysis and Robustness Evaluation

In the use of advanced systems control techniques in the development of a dynamic system, results from effective mathematical modelling is required. Historically, in some cases the use of a model which only reflects the "expected" or "nominal" important -information about the system's internal processes has resulted in acceptable system performance, but it should be recognized that for those cases success was due to a combination of the remarkable inherent potential of feedback control for robustness and fortuitously wide margins between system performance requirements and system performance capability. In the cases of a CELSS development, no such fortuitous combinations should be expected, and it should be expected that the uncertainty in the information on the system's processes will have to be taken into account in order to generate a performance robust design. In this paper, we develop one perspective of the issue of providing robustness as mathematical modelling impacts it, and present some examples of model formats which serve the needed purpose.

Blackwell, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2002

Uncertainties in Upper Stratospheric Ozone Trends from 1979 to 1996

The time series of differences in coincident measurements of ozone by Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) and by Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV), SBUV/2, Umkehr and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are analyzed, and the slopes in the differences are calculated. SAGE ozone measurements are also compared against those by HALOE. The purpose of these comparisons is to look for statistically significant nonzero slopes which could indicate long-term calibration problems in one or more of the measurement systems. It is found that the slopes are remarkably similar between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, and, apart from a few exceptions, the slopes are also similar in the tropics. Slopes of MLS-SAGE differences and HALOE-SAGE trends from approximately 1992 to 1996 have values of approximately -0.5 +/- 0.4%/yr (95% confidence limits) in Umkehr layers 7-9 (which are centered at approx. 37, 42, and 47 km altitude). Umkehr-SAGE slopes for 1979-1996, however, are almost all positive and in the range -0.1 - 0.41%/yr for Umkehr layers 4 - 8, while SBUV-SAGE slopes for 1979-1989 are essentially zero in layers 4 - 7 and 0.3-0.4%/yr in layers 8 and 9. Averaging all these results with SBUV-SAGE 11 slopes from 1985 to 1989, the other sensors minus SAGE slopes are most likely between 0.2 and -0.2%/yr1 from approx. 20 to 40 km altitude. The results indicate slightly negative slopes in Umkehr layers 5-7 and positive slopes in the other three layers. There thus appears to be no overall drift in the SAGE ozone measurements from 1979 to 1996, but SAGE sunrise/sunset trend differences greater than 40 km altitude, combined with the more accurate SBUV-SAGE slopes for 1979-1989, suggest a most likely slope range of 0.4 to -0.4%/yr between 40 and 50 km altitude. SBUV/2 measurements from 1989 to 1994 have an upward trend with respect to SAGE measurements of approx. 0.7% /yr with some altitudinal structure; this slope exceeds the estimated 95% uncertainties on the SBUV/2 trends.

Cunnold, D. M.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Effects of Uncertainty in TRMM Precipitation Radar Path Integrated Attenuation on Interannual Variations of Tropical Oceanic Rainfall

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30 deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Time series of rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) over the tropical oceans show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. We show that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series. Further analysis of the frequency distribution of PR (2A25 product) rain rates suggests that the algorithm incorporates the attenuation measurement in a very conservative fashion so as to optimize the instantaneous rain rates. Such an optimization appears to come at the expense of monitoring interannual climate variability.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Uncertainty in Computational Aerodynamics

An approach is presented to treat computational aerodynamics as a process, subject to the fundamental quality assurance principles of process control and process improvement. We consider several aspects affecting uncertainty for the computational aerodynamic process and present a set of stages to determine the level of management required to meet risk assumptions desired by the customer of the predictions.

Luckring, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Stochastic Collocation Algorithm for Uncertainty Analysis

This report describes a stochastic collocation method to adequately handle a physically intrinsic uncertainty in the variables of a numerical simulation. For instance, while the standard Galerkin approach to Polynomial Chaos requires multi-dimensional summations over the stochastic basis functions, the stochastic collocation method enables to collapse those summations to a one-dimensional summation only. This report furnishes the essential algorithmic details of the new stochastic collocation method and provides as a numerical example the solution of the Riemann problem with the stochastic collocation method used for the discretization of the stochastic parameters.

Mathelin, Lionel↗

NASA NTRS2003

Uncertainty in Computational Aerodynamics

Luckring, J. M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Uncertainty Propagation for Turbulent, Compressible Flow in a Quasi-1D Nozzle Using Stochastic Methods

This paper describes a fully spectral, Polynomial Chaos method for the propagation of uncertainty in numerical simulations of compressible, turbulent flow, as well as a novel stochastic collocation algorithm for the same application. The stochastic collocation method is key to the efficient use of stochastic methods on problems with complex nonlinearities, such as those associated with the turbulence model equations in compressible flow and for CFD schemes requiring solution of a Riemann problem. Both methods are applied to compressible flow in a quasi-one-dimensional nozzle. The stochastic collocation method is roughly an order of magnitude faster than the fully Galerkin Polynomial Chaos method on the inviscid problem.

Zang, Thomas A.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Reliability Assessment of a Robust Design Under Uncertainty for a 3-D Flexible Wing

The paper presents reliability assessment results for the robust designs under uncertainty of a 3-D flexible wing previously reported by the authors. Reliability assessments (additional optimization problems) of the active constraints at the various probabilistic robust design points are obtained and compared with the constraint values or target constraint probabilities specified in the robust design. In addition, reliability-based sensitivity derivatives with respect to design variable mean values are also obtained and shown to agree with finite difference values. These derivatives allow one to perform reliability based design without having to obtain second-order sensitivity derivatives. However, an inner-loop optimization problem must be solved for each active constraint to find the most probable point on that constraint failure surface.

Gumbert, Clyde R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

A Study of Uncertainties for MODIS Cloud Retrievals of Optical Thickness and Effective Radius

The investigation spanned four linked components as summarized in section III, each relating to some aspect of uncertainty assessment in the retrieval of cloud optical and microphysical properties using solar reflectance algorithms such as the MODIS operational cloud product (product IDS MOD06, MDY06 for Terra and Aqua, respectively). As discussed, three of these components have been fully completed (items (l), (2), and (3) while item (4) has been partially completed. These efforts have resulted in peer-reviewed publications and/or information delivered to the MODIS P.I. (M. D. King) for inclusion in the cloud product Quality Assessment (QA) output, a portion of the product output used, in part, for retrieval error assignments. This final report begins with a synopsis of the proposed investigation (section III) followed by a summary of work performed up through the last report including updates (section IV). Section V describes new activities. Publications from the efforts are listed in section VI. Figures (available in powerpoint format) are found in section VII.

Platnick, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2002

Testing Facility Uncertainty Analyses for RBCC Systems Testing

The Rocket Based Combined Cycle (RBCC) engine is expected to evolve based upon past combined-cycle propulsion test experience/data and new extensive test data. Currently, it is envisioned that a portion of the component and system testing will be pursued at NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC). To realize the greatest benefit of the test data, uncertainty analyses are being performed on the relevant RBCC components and systems to be tested at NASA SSC to ascertain the needed measurement requirements. These studies pertain to the existing E-Complex test stands as well as a new facility, E-4. This paper describes the approach used in the studies and gives examples to demonstrate the approach and the usefulness of the results. Future work will greatly increase the reliability of the test data while minimizing costs by focusing expenditures in the proper areas that are critical to program success and not allowing resources to be wasted in areas that are not significant relative to overall program goals.

Hudson, Susan T.↗