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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Availability and Performance Loss Factors for U.S. PV Fleet Systems

In the PV Fleet Performance Data Initiative, we partner with photovoltaic (PV) fleet owners to collect time-series PV production data and publish aggregated, anonymized results. This report is an update of our previous publications, specifically a FY 2021 performance index publication and a FY 2022 fleet degradation analysis. In this analysis, we have increased our data participants and system totals by around 10% to 8.5 GW and 24,000 separate inverter data channels. Four major analysis topics are considered in this report: Performance Index (PI) trends, PV system availability, soiling losses, and PV system degradation. Performance Index and inverter availability are assessed on a larger set of data from our FY 2021 report: 1,128 systems compared with 200 systems from before. The increased number of systems is due to an improved data quality methodology, as well as introducing new systems to the analysis. Overall results are similar to previously published values - overall inverter availability is low in the first six months of system performance before reaching steady-state by the end of the first year. Excluding this six-month startup period, system-level aggregated data shows a median (P50) system availability of 0.99 and a lower 10th percentile (P90) value of 0.95 (Figure ES-1). A dependence on system size is also demonstrated, with worse inverter availability results for larger PV systems. Causes of this effect are under investigation, but may be impacted by inverter size, which also show lower availability for larger inverter sizes. This report also investigates PI, correcting for degradation, soiling, snow, and availability. Following these corrections, the median system PI over its entire lifetime is 0.95. PI values reported here are approximately 3% lower than what we presented in our previous FY 2021 report. Soiling loss is assessed in a comprehensive way for the first time in this report. Results are presented using the COmbined Degradation and Soiling (CODS) method, as implemented in RdTools (v3.0.0a4). Soiling values are presented for 255 systems, which indicated irradiance-weighted soiling loss greater than 1%. The values have been published in an updated NREL soiling map at nrel.gov/pv/soiling.html. Finally, we investigated system degradation using three different data analysis techniques: conventional RdTools (year-on-year (YOY)), CODS, and Performance Loss Rate (PLR) analysis. Overall degradation results are consistent with our previous publications. Rerunning conventional RdTools on our updated fleet shows that some data partners have systematically fallen below the median system degradation rate (change over time) of -0.75 %/year. A comparison with PLR analysis, which looks at change in annual PI over time, shows that median system degradation is consistent with -0.5% to -0.75% per year change. However, at the P90 value, system degradation is substantially faster. These two results are consistent and indicate that resulting degradation statistics depend to a great degree on the population of PV systems making up the analysis cohort and whether soiling impacts the systems. The use of CODS for degradation analysis provides a different method for degradation assessment, which explicitly excludes the impact of recoverable soiling on degradation analysis. Excluding soiling effects yields an annual system degradation around -0.5% per year on average. This indicates that a portion of system performance loss may be attributed to periodic soiling that is not fully recovered. This report provides PV system owners/operators with background and methods to analyze PV system performance, give guidance for expected cohort performance, and performance loss values for use in pro-forma financial models, which guide new-build system design and bankability reports.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2018

Monitoring Springs in the Mojave Desert Using Landsat Time Series Analysis

The purpose of this study, based on Landsat satellite data was to characterize variations and trends over 30 consecutive years (1985-2016) in perennial vegetation green cover at over 400 confirmed Mojave Desert spring locations. These springs were surveyed between in 2015 and 2016 on lands managed in California by the U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) and on several land trusts within the Barstow, Needles, and Ridgecrest BLM Field Offices. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from July Landsat images was computed at each spring location and a trend model was first fit to the multi-year NDVI time series using least squares linear regression.Â

Time Series↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Potential of Hydrogeodesy to Address Water-Related and Sustainability Challenges

Increasing climatic and human pressures are changing the world's water resources and hydrological processes at unprecedented rates. Understanding these changes requires comprehensive monitoring of water resources. Hydrogeodesy, the science that measures the Earth's solid and aquatic surfaces, gravity field, and their changes over time, delivers a range of novel monitoring tools that are complementary to traditional hydrological methods. It encompasses geodetic technologies such as Altimetry, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Gravimetry, and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Beyond quantifying these changes, there is a need to understand how hydrogeodesy can contribute to more ambitious goals dealing with water-related and sustainability sciences. Addressing this need, we combine a meta-analysis of over 3,000 articles to chart the range, trends, and applications of satellite-based hydrogeodesy with an expert elicitation that systematically assesses the potential of hydrogeodesy. We find a growing body of literature relating to the advancements in hydrogeodetic methods, their accuracy and precision, and their inclusion in hydrological modeling, with a considerably smaller portion related to understanding hydrological processes, water management, and sustainability sciences. The meta-analysis also shows that while lakes, groundwater and glaciers are commonly monitored by these technologies, wetlands or permafrost could benefit from a wider range of applications. In turn, the expert elicitation envisages the potential of hydrogeodesy to help solve the 23 Unsolved Questions of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences and advance knowledge as guidance toward a safe operating space for humanity. It also highlights how this potential can be maximized by combining hydrogeodetic technologies simultaneously, exploiting artificial intelligence, and accurately integrating other Earth science disciplines. Finally, we call for a coordinated way forward to include hydrogeodesy in tertiary education and broaden its application to water-related and sustainability sciences in order to exploit its full potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Vaporization and Zonal Mixing in Performance Modeling of Advanced LOX-Methane Rockets

Initial modeling of LOX-Methane reaction control (RCE) 100 lbf thrusters and larger, 5500 lbf thrusters with the TDK/VIPER code has shown good agreement with sea-level and altitude test data. However, the vaporization and zonal mixing upstream of the compressible flow stage of the models leveraged empirical trends to match the sea-level data. This was necessary in part because the codes are designed primarily to handle the compressible part of the flow (i.e. contraction through expansion) and in part because there was limited data on the thrusters themselves on which to base a rigorous model. A more rigorous model has been developed which includes detailed vaporization trends based on element type and geometry, radial variations in mixture ratio within each of the "zones" associated with elements and not just between zones of different element types, and, to the extent possible, updated kinetic rates. The Spray Combustion Analysis Program (SCAP) was leveraged to support assumptions in the vaporization trends. Data of both thrusters is revisited and the model maintains a good predictive capability while addressing some of the major limitations of the previous version.

Williams, George J., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermal, mechanical, and electrical properties of LSCo/mullite composite contact materials for solid oxide fuel cells

Lanthanum strontium cobaltite (LSCo) is considered as a good candidate cathode contact material for solid oxide fuel cells, due to high electrical conductivity. However, LSCo has a very large coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) than the cells and metallic interconnects. As a result, poor mechanical stability is expected during thermal cycling. To minimize the CTE mismatch, we investigate a composite approach involving mixing LSCo with an inert material of low CTE, such as mullite at volume fractions from 0.1 to 0.4. Composite’s CTE shows a decreasing trend with increasing mullite volume fractions, and is consistent with model predictions. X-ray powder diffraction analysis of sintered LSCo/mullite composites exhibits no presence of other phases for samples aged for 500h at 800oC, indicating chemical compatibility. Electrical conductivity by a 4-pt method shows a decreasing trend with increasing mullite content. Contact strength of as-sintered and thermally cycled samples show that only the composite with 0.4 volume fraction has a measurable strength; the other composites have no strength. Overall, the composite approach is demonstrated in the LSCo/mullite system to lower the CTE and hence achieve thermal cycle stability. The addition of the inert phase to the LSCo matrix; however, also reduces the electrical conductivity.

Contact materials, LSCo, mullite, CTE, electrical ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Trends in VOC Through Rapid, Multimodal Characterization of State-of-the-Art p-i-n Perovskite Devices

Perovskite photovoltaic technologies are approaching commercial deployment, yet single junction and tandem architectures both still have significant room to improve power conversion efficiency and stability. The ability to perform rapid screening of material quality after altering processing conditions is critical to accelerating the optimization and commercialization of perovskite-based technologies. Currently, researchers utilize a wide range of stand-alone metrology tools to isolate sources of power loss throughout a device stack, which can be slow and labor intensive. Here, we demonstrate the use of a multimodal metrology approach to rapidly determine the maximum achievable and predicted open circuit voltages of >100 perovskite devices during fabrication. Acquisition of these different data is facilitated by combining them into a single integrated measurement platform. We show that these data and automated analysis can be used to rapidly understand and ultimately predict quantitative trends in open circuit voltages of state-of-the-art device architectures. The data and automated analysis workflow presented provides a reliable approach to quickly identify absorber and charge transport layer combinations that can lead to improved open circuit voltages.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2008

Interannual Variability and Trends of Extratropical Ozone: Northern Hemisphere - Part 1

The authors apply principal component analysis (PCA) to the extratropical total column ozone from the combined merged ozone data product and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts assimilated ozone from January 1979 to August 2002. The interannual variability (IAV) of extratropical O-3 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is characterized by four main modes. Attributable to dominant dynamical effects, these four modes account for nearly 60% of the total ozone variance in the NH. The patterns of variability are distinctly different from those derived for total O-3 in the tropics. To relate the derived patterns of O-3 to atmospheric dynamics, similar decompositions are performed for the 30 100-Wa geopotential thickness. The results reveal intimate connections between the IAV of total ozone and the atmospheric circulation. The first two leading modes are nearly zonally symmetric and represent the connections to the annular modes and the quasi-biennial oscillation. The other two modes exhibit in-quadrature, wavenumber-1 structures that, when combined, describe the displacement of the polar vortices in response to planetary waves. In the NH, the extrema of these combined modes have preferred locations that suggest fixed topographical and land-sea thermal forcing of the involved planetary waves. Similar spatial patterns and trends in extratropical column ozone are simulated by the Goddard Earth Observation System chemistryclimate model (GEOS-CCM). The decreasing O-3 trend is captured in the first mode. The largest trend occurs at the North Pole, with values similar to-1 Dobson Unit (DU) yr(-1). There is almost no trend in tropical O-3. The trends derived from PCA are confirmed using a completely independent method, empirical mode decomposition, for zonally averaged O-3 data. The O-3 trend is also captured by mode 1 in the GEOS-CCM, but the decrease is substantially larger than that in the real atmosphere.

Yung, Yuk L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Role of Wind Speed in Prolonging Large Fire Durations in the Western US

Abstract The duration of large wildfires in the western US has increased significantly from 1992 to 2020 in the two fire seasons, by 0.76 days yr −1 in summer and 0.55 days yr −1 in fall. The factors driving the trend and variability were analyzed using multiple linear regression models. Our analysis identified the maximum daily wind speed during large fires, which has also increased during the study period, as the primary predictor for the large fire duration. Despite the observed rise in maximum wind speed specifically during large fires, there are no corresponding trends in the average daily mean wind speed throughout the fire seasons. The mechanisms underlying the increase in maximum wind speed during large fires remain unclear and warrant further investigation, as they may pose growing challenges for fire control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recent Trends in Transport of Surface Carbonaceous Aerosols to the Upper-Troposphere-Lower-Stratosphere Linked to Expansion of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone

Using Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) re-analyses, we have examined recent trends (2000–2019) in transport of surface carbonaceous aerosols (CAs), that is, organic carbon and black carbon, to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). We find a significant increased concentration of UTLS CA, linked to a linear trend in an expansion of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone (ASMA). Over core monsoon latitudes (25°–35°N), the trends in UTLS CA are enabled by increased upward transport from surface sources via an intensified monsoon meridional circulation, with increased latent heating over the southern Tibetan Plateau and foothill regions, enhanced by feedback processes associated with radiative heating by UTLS CA. In the extra-tropics, increased UTLS CA stems primarily from an extended source of increased wildfire emissions over eastern Siberia and northern Asia, coincident with a large-scale anomalous anticyclone with enhanced surface warming and drying near (80°–120°E, 55°–70°N). Here, CAs are transported upward from the surface to the ULS, likely by increased pyro-convection associated with enhanced wildfires, and enter the tropical UTLS via increased equatorward transport on the eastern flanks of anomalous upper-level anticyclones, coupled to the expanded ASMA. Overall, the increasing UTLS CA trends associated with expansion of the ASMA are consistent with a hydrostatic expansion of a warming troposphere, reflected in a rise in the tropical tropopause and consequential dynamical adjustments of the ASM subtropical jetstream, modulating the climate of the greater ASM region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

Comparison of experimental rotor damping data-reduction techniques

The ability of existing data reduction techniques to determine frequency and damping from transient time-history records was evaluated. Analog data records representative of small-scale helicopter aeroelastic stability tests were analyzed. The data records were selected to provide information on the accuracy of reduced frequency and decay coefficients as a function of modal damping level, modal frequency, number of modes present in the time history record, proximity to other modes with different frequencies, steady offset in time history, and signal-to-noise ratio. The study utilized the results from each of the major U.S. helicopter manufacturers, the U.S. Army Aeroflightdynamics Directorate, and NASA Ames Research Center using their inhouse data reduction and analysis techniques. Consequently, the accuracy of different data analysis techniques and the manner in which they were implemented were also evaluated. It was found that modal frequencies can be accurately determined even in the presence of significant random and periodic noise. Identified decay coefficients do, however, show considerable variation, particularly for highly damped modes. The manner in which the data are reduced and the role of the data analyst was shown to be important. Although several different damping determination methods were used, no clear trends were evident for the observed differences between the individual analysis techniques. It is concluded that the data reduction of modal-damping characteristics from transient time histories results in a range of damping values.

Warmbrodt, William↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emergent Trends Complicate the Interpretation of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM)

Abstract Effective drought management must be informed by an understanding of whether and how current drought monitoring and assessment practices represent underlying nonstationary climate conditions, either naturally occurring or forced by climate change. Here we investigate the emerging climatology and associated trends in drought classes defined by the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), a weekly product that, since 2000, has been used to inform drought management in the United States. The USDM classifies drought intensity based in part on threshold percentiles in key hydroclimate quantities. Here we assess how those USDM‐defined drought threshold percentiles have changed over the last 23 years, examining precipitation, runoff, soil moisture (SM), terrestrial water storage (TWS), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and near‐surface air temperature. We also assess underlying trends in the frequency of drought classifications across the U.S. Our analysis suggests that the frequency of drought class occurrence is exceeding the threshold percentiles defined by the USDM in a number of regions in the United States, particularly in the American West, where the last 23 years have emerged as a prolonged dry period. These trends are also reflected in percentile‐based thresholds in precipitation, runoff, SM, TWS, VPD, and temperature. Our results emphasize that while the USDM appears to be accurately reflecting observed nonstationarity in the physical climate, such trends raise critical questions about whether and how drought diagnosis, classification, and monitoring should address long‐term intervals of wet and dry periods or trends.

Geology↗
NASA NTRS1973

Fracture trends identified by ERTS-1 imagery in Utah and Nevada

The author has identified the following significant results. In the Utah-Nevada area, linear structural trends recorded on ERTS-1 imagery conform in part to previously recognized structures. In addition, the ERTS-1 imagery reveals cryptic structures not previously identified and not readily apparent in other imagery. These structures are illustrated by prominent east-west trending structures which appear to be concentrated in pre-volcanic rocks. This suggests that the structures are older than many of those with other trends which are equally prominent in volcanic and non-volcanic terrain. Since the older east-west structures may have controlled early Tertiary emplacement of magma or the ascent of mineralizing fluids, their recognition is important in minerial exploration. Soil-gas sampling and analysis for mercury content is being continued over structures, and projected trends of buried structures which appear, from studies of ERTS-1 imagery, to be favorable to mineralization. Comparison of ERTS-1 and Skylab imagery indicated that ERTS-1 imagery records more previously unrecognized linear structures than the Skylab imagery. In differentiating and identifying different rock types, the Skylab imagery appears to be more effective.

Jensen, M. L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

GCAM Base Year Update

In FY21 we worked to update the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to match historical energy consumption and technology cost trends and near-term economic growth expectations using available historical data out to 2019. We have done this in a way that builds the capacity to more easily update the model in the future to make GCAM a robust and readily updatable tool for decarbonization analysis.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1975

LANDSAT imagery analysis: An aid for predicting landslide prone areas for highway construction

The most obvious landform features of geologic significance revealed on LANDSAT imagery are linear trends or lineaments. These trends were found to correspond, at least to a large degree, with unmapped faults or complex fracture zones. LANDSAT imagery analysis in northern Arkansas revealed a lineament complex which provides a remarkable correlation with landslide-prone areas along major highway routes. The weathering properties of various rock types, which are considered in designing stable cut slopes and drainage structures, appear to be adversely influenced by the location and trends of LANDSAT defined lineaments. Geologic interpretation of LANDSAT imagery, where applicable and utilized effectively, provides the highway engineer with a tool for predicting and evaluating landslide-prone areas.

Macdonald, H. C.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Large space antennas: A systems analysis case history

The value of systems analysis and engineering is aptly demonstrated by the work on Large Space Antennas (LSA) by the NASA Langley Spacecraft Analysis Branch. This work was accomplished over the last half-decade by augmenting traditional system engineering, analysis, and design techniques with computer-aided engineering (CAE) techniques using the Langley-developed Interactive Design and Evaluation of Advanced Spacecraft (IDEAS) system. This report chronicles the research highlights and special systems analyses that focused the LSA work on deployable truss antennas. It notes developmental trends toward greater use of CAE techniques in their design and analysis. A look to the future envisions the application of improved systems analysis capabilities to advanced space systems such as an advanced space station or to lunar and Martian missions and human habitats.

Keafer, Lloyd S.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decomposition of Irganox 1010 in plastic bonded explosives

Abstract Degradation pathways of Irganox 1010 in aged plastic bonded explosive (PBX) 9501 were investigated using ultrahigh performance liquid chromatography coupled to quadrupole time of flight mass spectrometry (UHPLC‐QTOF). Using a targeted approach, a total of 44 Irganox 1010 decomposition products were discovered. These decomposition products were formed through hydrolysis, scission, and/or oxidation of Irganox 1010. The hydrolytic decomposition of Irganox is a straightforward process resulting in the cleavage of the ester group(s) while oxidation and scission are more complicated and can happen at multiple locations on the Irganox 1010 molecule. Moreover, due to the symmetric nature of Irganox 1010, multiple decomposition reactions can occur. Indeed some decomposition products exhibited hydrolysis, oxidation, and scission. In order to probe any trends in the aged PBX 9501 samples, principal component analysis (PCA) was implemented. The greatest chemical differences between the aged PBX samples was hydrolysis of the ester functional groups on Irganox 1010. Despite the negative connotations of hydrolysis, the Irganox 1010 decomposition products are still able to function as a radical scavenger in PBX 9501 as intended.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Magnetic coupling between Fe(NO) spin probe ligands through diamagnetic Ni II , Pd II and Pt II tetrathiolate bridges

Reaction of the nitrosylated-iron metallodithiolate ligand, paramagnetic (NO)Fe(N 2 S 2 ), with [M(CH 3 CN) n ][BF 4 ] 2 salts (M = Ni II , Pd II , and Pt II ; n = 4 or 6) affords di-radical tri-metallic complexes in a stairstep type arrangement ([FeMFe] 2+ , M = Ni, Pd, and Pt), with the central group 10 metal held in a MS 4 square plane. These isostructural compounds have nearly identical ν(NO) stretching values, isomer shifts, and electrochemical properties, but vary in their magnetic properties. Despite the intramolecular Fe∙∙∙Fe distances of ca. 6 Å, antiferromagnetic coupling is observed between {Fe(NO)} 7 units as established by magnetic susceptibility, EPR, and DFT studies. The superexchange interaction through the thiolate sulfur and central metal atoms is on the order of Ni II < Pd II $\ll$ Pt II with exchange coupling constants (J) of -3, -23, and -124 cm -1 , consistent with increased covalency of the M–S bonds (3d < 4d < 5d). This trend is reproduced by DFT calculations with molecular orbital analysis providing insight into the origin of the enhancement in the exchange interaction. Specifically, the magnitude of the exchange interaction correlates surprisingly well with the energy difference between the HOMO and HOMO-1 orbitals of the triplet states, which is reflected in the central metal's contribution to these orbitals. These results demonstrate the ability of sulfur-dense metallodithiolate ligands to engender strong magnetic communication by virtue of their enhanced covalency and polarizability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Diploid-dominant life cycles characterize the early evolution of Fungi

Most of the described species in kingdom Fungi are contained in two phyla, the Ascomycota and the Basidiomycota (subkingdom Dikarya). As a result, our understanding of the biology of the kingdom is heavily influenced by traits observed in Dikarya, such as aerial spore dispersal and life cycles dominated by mitosis of haploid nuclei. We now appreciate that Fungi comprises numerous phylum-level lineages in addition to those of Dikarya, but the phylogeny and genetic characteristics of most of these lineages are poorly understood due to limited genome sampling. Here, we addressed major evolutionary trends in the non-Dikarya fungi by phylogenomic analysis of 69 newly generated draft genome sequences of the zoosporic (flagellated) lineages of true fungi. Our phylogeny indicated five lineages of zoosporic fungi and placed Blastocladiomycota, which has an alternation of haploid and diploid generations, as branching closer to the Dikarya than to the Chytridiomyceta. Our estimates of heterozygosity based on genome sequence data indicate that the zoosporic lineages plus the Zoopagomycota are frequently characterized by diploid-dominant life cycles. We mapped additional traits, such as ancestral cell-cycle regulators, cell-membrane– and cell-wall–associated genes, and the use of the amino acid selenocysteine on the phylogeny and found that these ancestral traits that are shared with Metazoa have been subject to extensive parallel loss across zoosporic lineages. Together, our results indicate a gradual transition in the genetics and cell biology of fungi from their ancestor and caution against assuming that traits measured in Dikarya are typical of other fungal lineages.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗