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NASA NTRS1999

Validation of the Land-Surface Energy Budget and Planetary Boundary Layer for Several Intensive field Experiments

Land-surface processes in a data assimilation system influence the lower troposphere and must be properly represented. With the recent incorporation of the Mosaic Land-surface Model (LSM) into the GEOS Data Assimilation System (DAS), the detailed land-surface processes require strict validation. While global data sources can identify large-scale systematic biases at the monthly timescale, the diurnal cycle is difficult to validate. Moreover, global data sets rarely include variables such as evaporation, sensible heat and soil water. Intensive field experiments, on the other hand, can provide high temporal resolution energy budget and vertical profile data for sufficiently long periods, without global coverage. Here, we evaluate the GEOS DAS against several intensive field experiments. The field experiments are First ISLSCP Field Experiment (FIFE, Kansas, summer 1987), Cabauw (as used in PILPS, Netherlands, summer 1987), Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM, Southern Great Plains, winter and summer 1998) and the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA, Arctic ice sheet, winter and summer 1998). The sites provide complete surface energy budget data for periods of at least one year, and some periods of vertical profiles. This comparison provides a detailed validation of the Mosaic LSM within the GEOS DAS for a variety of climatologic and geographic conditions.

Bosilovich, Michael G.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Dynamical Meteorology of the Equatorial and Extratropical Stratosphere

Observational studies were performed of westward propagating synoptic scale waves in the tropical troposphere, the structure of monsoon circulations in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, and zonally propagating features in deep tropical convection. The effect of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) were investigated, and a numerical study of the QBO was performed using a two-dimensional model, highlighting the role of gravity waves in the momentum balance of the QBO. Vertical coupling of the troposphere and stratosphere was examined in polar regions on intraseasonal and interannual timescales. A deep circumpolar mode was discovered, now known as the Arctic Oscillation.

Dunkerton, Tomothy↗
NASA NTRS1999

Multiwavelength Observations of Mkn 501 During the 1997 High State

During the observation period 1977, the close Blazar Mkn 501 showed extremely strong emission and high variability. We examine multiwavelength aspects of this event using Radio optical, soft and hard X-ray and TeV data. We concentrate on the medium-timescale variability of the broadband spectra averaged over 1-week intervals. We confirm the previously found correlation between soft and hard X-ray emission and the at TeV energies while the source shows only minor variability at radio and optical wavelengths. The non-linear correlation between hard X-ray and TeV fluxes is consistent with a simple analytic estimate based on an SSC model in which Klein-Nishina effects are important for the highest-energy electrons in the jet and flux; variations are caused by variations of the electron density and/or the spectral index of the electron injection spectrum. The time-averaged spectra are fitted with an SSC dominated leptonic jet model using the full Klein-Nishina cross section and following the self-consistent evolution of relativistic particles along the jet accounting for gamma gamma absorption and pair production within the source as well as due to the intergalactic infrared red background radiation. The contribution from external inverse-Compton scattering is tightly constrained by the low maximum EGRET flux and found co be negligible.

Petry, D.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Three-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Simulations of the Postimpact Proto-Earth

Astrophysical fluid configurations are susceptible to a variety of nonaxisymmetric instabilities under the combined effects of rotation, self-gravity, and thermal pressure. When strong enough, they can induce rapid transport of mass and angular momentum. Our own previous studies of nonaxisymmetric instabilities in model protostars and protostellar disks show that significant transport can occur on orbital timescales and that material can be ejected to large distances. In this contribution, we present three-dimensional simulations of the circumterrestrial debris belt that may have resulted from a giant impact. Our three-dimensional hydrodynamics code with self-gravity and artificial viscosity is fully second-order in space and time; the equations of hydrodynamics and the Poisson equation are solved on an Eulerian cylindrical grid. In the preliminary calculations presented here, we use a simplified EOS where the central proto-Earth is treated as an n = 1/2 polytropic fluid, surrounded by a more compressible, rapidly rotating, fluid disk that represents silicate vapor. Our initial disk parameters are generated from the endstate data of recent smoothed particle hydrodynamics giant-impact calculations. Ultimately, we wish to detennine under what conditions nonaxisymmetric instabilities grow in the postimpact disk and whether they facilitate the transport of material outside the proto-Earth's Roche Limit, leading to the formation of the Moon. In future work, we hope to include a more realistic EOS and the consequences of heating, cooling, and phase transitions.

Pickett, B. K.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Workshop on evolution of igneous asteroids: Focus on Vesta and the HED meteorites

Recently, the geology of the surface of Vesta has been coming to light. In 1983 Gaffey first began showing maps of the surface geology of Vesta constructed from numerous spectra obtained at different times as the asteroid rotated. By noting the details of spectral variation with rotation, he was able to develop two possible gross-scale geologic maps of Vesta showing the distributions of mafic and ultramafic materials. These maps were published in 1997. Finally, the capabilities of the Hubble Space Telescope were brought to bear on Vesta and images with a resolution of about 50 km were obtained using four different filters by Binzel and co-workers. Maps produced by this team published in 1997 began to reveal the geology of Vesta in sufficient detail that crude interpretations of the geologic history of the asteroid could be attempted. Additionally, in 1993 Binzel and Xu published a study of small asteroids in the region near Vesta in orbital-element space. In this study, they showed that there are a number of asteroids a few kilometers in size with reflectance spectra like that of Vesta that form a trail in orbital-element space from near Vesta to near resonances that can more easily supply material to near-Earth space. Binzel and Xu thus concluded that these small asteroids were spells of Vesta ejected by impact and that some of their brethren had been perturbed to Earth-approaching orbits. They suggested that these latter were the immediate parents of HED meteorites. This seemed to remove a long-standing dynamical objection to Vesta as the HED parent body, as discussed by Wasson and Wetherill in 1979. Within the last few years, NASA has initiated the Discovery program of low-cost, rapid-timescale development, exploration missions. Vesta has been proposed as an object worthy of study by a Discovery mission, although a Vesta mission has not yet been selected. With all the recent activity aimed at studying Vesta and the HED meteorites, and the possibility of a space mission to Vesta, we felt that time was ripe to convene a workshop bringing together astronomers, meteoriticists, and planetary geologists to focus on what could be learned about the geologic evolution of Vesta through integrating astronomical and HED meteorite studies. This, of course, assumes that the HED meteorites are from Vesta, and this issue was specifically addressed (but not resolved) in the workshop. Indeed, it seems likely that this issue can only be resolved by returning samples from Vesta for detailed study on Earth. The workshop was held at the LPI on October 16-18,1996, and was attended by some 70 scientists. Sessions included a set of talks on Earth- and space-based astronomical observations of Vesta plus the evidence pro and con for Vesta being the HED parent body, talks on the petrology and geochemistry of HED meteorites, talks on the formation and dynamics of ejecta from Vesta, talks on the thermal history of asteroids and HED meteorites, volcanic processes and differentiation history, and a short session devoted to possible missions to Vestal By all accounts, the workshop was considered a great success, although this is the opinion of a biased set of observers.

Mittlefehldt, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS1999

An X-Ray Study of the Evolution of the CTB1 Supernova Remnant

The subject grant supported an X-ray study of the evolution of CTB1, a supernova remnant with a centrally brightened morphology in X-rays and a curious optical structure suggesting the possibility of evolution in a stellar wind cavity. The primary questions to be answered in the study were: 1) is the X-ray emission thermal, and thus associated with hot gas in the remnant interior, or nonthermal, presumably driven by an unseen pulsar; 2) if the emission is thermal, is the ionization timescale of the hot gas consistent with a dynamically young SNR, such as might be expected for a cavity explosion, or is it consistent with dynamically older remnant whose centrally enhanced X-ray profile is the result of thermal conduction with a radiative shell, or perhaps evaporation of cool clouds being slowly heated in the SNR interior?

Slane, P.↗
NASA NTRS1995

The Circum-Chryse Region as a Possible Example of a Hydrologic Cycle on Mars: Geologic Observations and Theoretical Evaluation

The transection and superposition relationships among channels, chaos, surface materials units, and other features in the circum-Chryse region of Mars were used to evaluate relative age relationships and evolution of flood events. Channels and chaos in contact (with one another) were treated as single discrete flood-carved systems. Some outflow channel systems form networks and are inferred to have been created by multiple flood events. Within some outflow channel networks, several separate individual channel systems can be traced to a specific chaos which acted as flood-source area to that specific flood channel. Individual flood-carved systems were related to widespread materials units or other surface features that served as stratigraphic horizons. Chryse outflow channels are inferred to have formed over most of the perceivable history of Mars. Outflow channels are inferred to become younger with increasing proximity to the Chryse basin. In addition, outflow channels closer to the basin show a greater diversity in age. The relationship of subsequent outflow channel sources to the sources of earlier floods is inferred to disfavor episodic flooding due to the progressive tapping of a juvenile near-surface water supply. Instead, we propose the circum-Chryse region as a candidate site of past hydrological recycling. The discharge rates necessary to carve the circum-Chryse outflow channels would have inevitably formed temporary standing bodies of H2O on the Martian surface where the flood-waters stagnated and pooled (the Chryse basin is topographically enclosed). These observations and inferences have led us to formulate and evaluate two hypotheses: (1) large amounts of the sublimated H2O off the Chryse basin flood lakes precipitated (snowed) onto the flood-source highlands and this H2O was incorporated into the near surface, recharging the H2O sources, making possible subsequent deluges; and (2) ponded flood-water in Chryse basin drained back down an anti basinward dipping subsurface layer accessed along the southern edge of the lake, recharging the flood-source aquifers. H2O not redeposited in the flood-source region was largely lost to the hydrologic cycle. This loss progressively lowered the vitality of the cycle, probably by now killing it. Our numerical evaluations indicate that of the two hypotheses we formulated, the groundwater seep cycle seems by far the more viable. Optimally, approximately 3/4 of the original mass of an ice-covered cylindrical lake (albedo 0.5, 1 km deep, 100-km radius, draining along its rim for one quarter of its circumference into substrata with a permeability of 3000 darcies) can be modeled to have moved underground (on timescales of the order of 10(exp 3) years) before the competing mechanisms of sublimation and freeze down choked off further water removal. Once underground, this water can travel distances equal to the separation between Chryse basin and flood-source sites in geologically short (approximately 10(exp 6) year-scale) times. Conversely, we calculate that optimally only approximately 40% of the H2O carried from Chryse can condense at the highlands, and most of the precipitate would either collect at the base of the highlands/lowlands scrap or sublimate at rates greater than it would accumulate over the flood-source sites. Further observations from forthcoming missions may permit the determination of which mechanisms may have operated to recycle the Chryse flood-waters.

Moore, Jeffrey M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1999

BeppoSAX Observation of NGC 7582: Constraints on the X-Ray Absorber

This paper presents a BeppoSAX observation of NGC 7582 made during 1998 November and an optical spectrum taken in 1998 October. The new X-ray data reveal a previously unknown hard X-ray component in NGC 7582, peaking close to 20 keV. Rapid variability is observed with correlated changes in the 5-10 and 13-60 keV bands indicating that a single continuum component, produced by the active nucleus, provides the, dominant flux across both bands. Comparison between RXTE and BeppoSAX data reveals changes in the 2 - 10 keV flux on timescales of months. Changes in the nuclear X-ray flux appear unrelated to the gradual decline in optical flux noted since the high-state in 1998 July. The 0.5 - 2 keV flux of NGC 7582 is not significantly variable within the BeppoSAX observation, but has brightened by a factor of approximately 2 since the ASCA observation of 1994. While there is some concern about contamination from spatially-unresolved sources, the long-term variability in soft X-ray flux seems most likely associated with the nucleus or an event within the host galaxy of NGC 7582. The 2 - 100 keV spectrum is well fit by a powerlaw of photon index Gamma = 1.95(sup +0.09, sub -0.18) steeper by Delta.Gamma approximately equal 0.40 than the index during the 1994 ASCA observation. The X-ray continuum is attenuated by a thick absorber of N(H) approximately 1.6 x10(exp 24)/sq cm covering approximately 60(sup +10%, sub -14%) of the nucleus plus a screen with N(sub H) approximately 1.4 x 10(exp 23)/ sq cm covering the entire nucleus. Comparison of the BeppoSAX and ASCA spectra shows an increase in the full screen by Delta.N(sub H) approximately equal 7 x 10(exp 22)/sq cm since 1994, confirming the absorption variability found by Xue et al. The increase in soft X-ray flux between 1994 and 1998 is consistent with the appearance of holes in the full screen allowing approximately < 1% of the nuclear flux to escape, and producing some clear lines-of-sight to the broad-line-region. The data are also consistent with the scenario suggested by Aretxaga et al, of the radiative onset of a type IIn supernova causing the observed optical change in NGC 7582.

Turner, T. J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Rapid Distortion Analysis and Direct Simulation of Compressible Homogeneous Turbulence at Finite Mach Number

The effect of rapid mean compression on compressible turbulence at a range of turbulent Mach numbers is investigated. Rapid dist'ortion theory (RDT) and direct numerical simulation results for the case of axial (one-dimensional) compression are used to illustrate the existence of two distinct rapid compression regimes. These regimes - the nearly solenoidal and the 'pressure-released' - are defined by a single parameter involving the timescales of the mean distortion, the turbulence, and the speed of sound. A general RDT formulation is developed and is proposed as a means of improving turbulence models for compressible flows. In contrast to the well-documented observation that 'compressibility' (measured, for example, by the turbulent Mach number) is often associated with a decrease in the growth rate of turbulent kinetic energy, we find that under rapid distortion compressibility can produce an amplification of the kinetic energy growth rate. We also find that as the compressibility increases, the magnitude of the pressure-dilation correlation increases, in absolute terms, but its relative importance decreases compared to the magnitude of the kinetic energy production.

Cambon, C.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Cosmic Journeys. To the Edge of Gravity, Space and Time: Structure and Evolution of the Universe Roadmap: 2003-2023

The Roadmap for the Structure and Evolution of the Universe (SEU) Theme embraces three fundamental, scientific quests: (1) To explain structure in the Universe and forecast our cosmic destiny, (2) To explore the cycles of matter and energy in the evolving Universe, (3) To examine the ultimate limits of gravity and energy in the Universe. We develop these quests into six focused research campaigns: (1) Identify dark matter and learn how it shapes galaxies and systems of galaxies, (2) Explore where and when the chemical elements were made (3) Understand the cycles in which matter, energy, and magnetic field are exchanged between stars and the gas between stars, (4) Discover how gas flows in disks and how cosmic jets are formed, (5) Identify the sources of gamma-ray bursts and high-energy cosmic rays, (6) Measure how strong gravity operates near black holes and how it affects the early Universe. These campaigns lead to a portfolio of future major missions of great scientific interest and popular appeal, strongly endorsed by the scientific community. Many have undergone significant initial study. Some are in a state of readiness that make them ideal candidates for the present Office of Space Science Strategic Plan; others may well feature in the next Plan. Each provides a golden scientific opportunity to advance our understanding of the Universe. We have identified three top-priority near-term science objectives together with missions to accomplish these goals. The three problems span a diverse range of subdisciplines, of observational technique, of timescales, and of cost, and are thus complementary, forming a coherent core program for the SEU theme in the 2003-2007 timeframe.These are : (1) Obtain precise measures of the chemical composition and physical conditions in objects ranging from the closest stars to the most distant quasars, (2) Utilize gravitational radiation as a probe of supermassive blackholes throughout the universe, (3) determine the nature of the highest energy cosmic rays. We also describe a small number of exciting missions which are strong candidates for new start status in the midterm, 2008-2013, pending technology development. These missions tackle fundamental problems through the entire electromagnetic spectrum, from the radio through gamma rays, and in many cases develop fascinating technologies with applicability not only elsewhere in NASA but outside of space science as well. Finally, we describe a set of "vision missions," which stretch our scientific imagination and set technology challenges for our field.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1999

Global and Regional Axial Ocean Angular Momentum Signals and Length-of-Day Variations (1985-1996)

Changes in ocean angular momentum about the polar axis (M) are related to fluctuations in zonal currents (relative component M(sub r)) and latitudinal shifts in mass (planetary component M(sub Omega)). Output from a 1 deg ocean model is used to calculate global M(sub r), M(sub Omega), and M time series at 5-day intervals for the period January 1985-April 1996. The annual cycle in M(sub r), M(sub Omega), and M is larger than the semiannual cycle, and M(sub Omega) amplitudes are nearly twice those of M(sub r). Year-to-year modulation of the seasonal cycle is present, but interannual variability is weak. The spectrum of M is red (background slope between omega(sup (-1) and omega(sup -2)) at subseasonal periods, implying a white or blue spectrum for the external torque on the ocean. Comparisons with previous studies indicate the importance of direct atmospheric forcing in inducing subseasonal M signals, relative to instabilities and other internal sources of rapid oceanic signals. Regional angular momentum estimates show that seasonal variability tends to be larger at low latitudes but there are many local maxima due to the spatial structure of zonal current and mass variability. At seasonal timescales, latitudes approximately 20 S - 10 N contribute substantial variability to M(sub Omega), while signals in M(sub r) can be traced to Antarctic Circumpolar Current transports and associated circulation. Variability in M is found to be small when compared with similar time series for the atmosphere and the solid Earth, but ocean signals are significantly coherent with atmosphere-solid Earth residuals, implying a measurable oceanic impact on length-of-day variations.

Ponte, Rui M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Validity of the Temperature Reconstruction from Water Isotopes in Ice Cores

Well-documented present-day distributions of stable water isotopes (HDO and others) show the existence, in middle and high latitudes, of a linear relationship between the mean annual isotope content of precipitation (SD and 51"0) and the mean annual temperature at the precipitation site. Paleoclimatologists have used this relationship, which is particularly well obeyed over Greenland and Antarctica, to infer paleotemperatures from ice core data. There is, however, growing evidence that spatial and temporal isotope/ surface temperature slopes differ, thus complicating the use of stable water isotopes as paleothermometers. In this paper we review empirical estimates of temporal slopes in polar regions and relevant information that can be inferred from isotope models: simple, Rayleigh-type distillation models and (particularly over Greenland) general circulation models (GCMS) fitted with isotope tracer diagnostics. Empirical estimates of temporal slopes appear consistently lower than present-day spatial slopes and are dependent on the timescale considered. This difference is most probably due to changes in the evaporative origins of moisture, changes in the seasonality of the precipitation, changes in the strength of the inversion layer, or some combination of these changes. Isotope models have not yet been used to evaluate the relative influences of these different factors. The apparent disagreement in the temporal and spatial slopes clearly makes calibrating the isotope paleothermometer difficult. Nevertheless, the use of a (calibrated) isotope paleothermometer appears justified; empirical estimates and most (though not all) GCM results support the practice of interpreting ice core isotope records in terms of local temperature changes.

Jouzel, J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Average Cosmological Invariant Parameters of Cosmic Gamma-Ray Bursts

Average cosmological invariant parameters (ACIPs) are calculated for six groups of BATSE cosmic gamma-ray bursts selected by their peak fluxes on the 1.024 S timescale. The ACIPs represent the average temporal and spectral properties of these events equally in the observer frame of reference and in the comoving frames of outbursting emitters. The parameters are determined separately for rise fronts and for back slopes of bursts, defined as the time profiles before and after the main peaks, respectively. The ACIPs for the rise fronts are found to be different for different intensity groups, while the ACIPs for the back slopes show no significant dependence on intensity. We conclude that emitters of bursts manifest standard average properties only during the back slopes of bursts.

Mitrofanov, Igor G.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Teleconnection Linking Asian/Pacific Monsoon Variability and Summertime Droughts and Floods Over the United States

Major droughts and floods over the U.S. continent may be related to a far field energy source in the Asian Pacific. This is illustrated by two climate patterns associated with summertime rainfall over the U.S. and large-scale circulation on interannual timescale. The first shows an opposite variation between the drought/flood over the Midwest and that over eastern and southeastern U.S., coupled to a coherent wave pattern spanning the entire East Asia-North Pacific-North America region related to the East Asian jetstream. The second shows a continental-scale drought/flood in the central U.S., coupled to a wavetrain linking Asian/Pacific monsoon region to North America.

Lau, K. M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) Observations of Dust Opacity During Aerobraking and Science Phasing

The Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) arrived at Mars in September 1997 near Mars southern spring equinox and has now provided monitoring of conditions in the Mars atmosphere for more than half a Mars year. The large majority of the spectra taken by the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) are in a nadir geometry (downward looking mode) where Mars is observed through the atmosphere. Most of these contain the distinct spectral signature of atmospheric dust. For these nadir-geometry spectra we retrieve column-integrated infrared aerosol (dust) opacities. TES observations during the aerobraking and science-phasing portions of the MGS mission cover the seasonal range L(sub s)=184 deg - 28 deg. Excellent spatial coverage was obtained in the southern hemisphere. Northern hemisphere coverage is generally limited to narrow strips taken during the periapsis pass but is still very valuable. At the beginning of the mission the 9-(micron)meter dust opacity at midsouthern latitudes was low (0.15-0.25). As the season advanced through southern spring and into summer, TES observed several regional dust storms (including the Noachis dust storm of November 1997) where peak 9-(micron)meter dust opacities approached or exceeded unity, as well as numerous smaller local storms. Both large and small dust storms exhibited significant changes in both spatial coverage and intensity over a timescale of a day. Throughout southern spring and summer the region at the edge of the retreating southern seasonal polar ice cap was observed to be consistently more dusty than other latitudes.

Smith, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Study of Short-Term Variations in Jupiter's Synchrotron Emission

Earth-based observations of the flux density and polarization of Jupiter's microwave emission provide useful data to test and constrain computational models of synchrotron radio emission from the inner regions of the Jovian magnetosphere. Stimulated by the sudden brightening of the synchrotron emission caused by the impacts of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 in 1994, the observational techniques of the NASA-JPL Jupiter Patrol were modified to search for other short-term variations unrelated to the SL-9 event. The characteristics of the improved data base are described and the results of the search for variability on timescales of 5 to 100 days are reported. The first results of Jupiter observations from the Goldstone-Apple Valley Radio Telescope (GAVRT) project are reported and included in the data base. GAVRT is a new project in science education that engages middle- and high school students in science research. The paper also includes new observations of Jupiter's rotational beamed emission, commonly known as the "beaming curve", that describes the observed flux density as a function of System III longitude. The shape of the "beaming curve" is known to change with the parameter D(sub E), the declination of the earth relative to Jupiter's rotational equator. While the history of Jupiter's beaming curve exhibits remarkable stability and repeatability as a function of D(sub E), there may be evidence for short term departures from the nominal curves. Data supporting this tentative conclusion are presented. Preliminary results of a study comparing the observations and computer simulations of the synchrotron beaming curve will also be presented and discussed (see companion paper, "Modeling Jupiter's Synchrotron Emission", by Bolton et. al.). The research reported in this paper was performed by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Klein, M.J.↗