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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2021

A Theoretical Approach for Reliability Within Information Supply Chains With Cycles and Negations

Complex networks of information processing systems, or information supply chains, present challenges for performance analysis. Here, we establish a mathematical setting, in which a process within an information supply chain can be analyzed in terms of the functionality of the system’s components. Principles of this methodology are rigorously defended and induce a model for determining the reliability for the various products in these networks. Our model does not limit us from having cycles in the network, as long as the cycles do not contain negation. It is shown that our approach to reliability resolves the nonuniqueness caused by cycles in a probabilistic Boolean network. An iterative algorithm is given to find the reliability values of the model, using a process that can be fully automated. This automated method of discerning reliability is beneficial for systems managers. As a systems manager considers systems modification, such as the replacement of owned and maintained hardware systems with cloud computing resources, the need for comparative analysis of system reliability is paramount. The model is extended to handle conditional knowledge about the network, allowing one to make predictions of weaknesses in the system. Finally, to illustrate the model’s flexibility over different forms, it is demonstrated on a system of components and subcomponents.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Island Power Systems With High Levels of Inverter-Based Resources: Stability and Reliability Challenges

IBRs↗

DOE OSTI2024

Foundations for the Future Power System: Inverter-Based Resource Interconnection Standards

As power systems evolve to become reliant on solar, wind, batteries, and other inverter-based resources (IBRs), it is essential that those resources meet certain minimum performance and capability criteria designed to ensure the power system operates stably and reliably. Because those criteria, as enshrined in interconnection standards, take years to develop and are very long lived, they need to account for not only the present state of the power system but also its expected future state over the lifetime of the power plants to which they will apply. In addition, they need to be specific enough to ensure reliability without over specifying and, thereby, impeding innovation. Because power systems are shifting rapidly from a state where IBRs make up a small to medium portion of generation to one where the generation will, at times, come predominantly from IBRs, interconnection standards are especially challenging to develop today. Good interconnection standards can make the power system more reliable and less costly to operate, whereas poorly designed standards can lead to major problems, like the famous German 50.2-Hz problem, which introduced a risk of losing many gigawatts of solar on a frequency excursion and resulted in many IBRs being retrofitted at great cost to mitigate a major system reliability risk. Readying the power system by specifying forward-looking technical minimum functional capabilities for IBRs can be an effective approach to avoid future retrofits.

data models↗

DOE OSTI2025

Distribution Feeder Characteristics and Their Resiliency to Natural Hazards

This paper introduces a method and approach for initially screening actions to improve the reliability of distribution systems exposed to three natural hazards (wildlife, weather, and vegetation). The method is well-suited to needs and capabilities of smaller utilities because it relies on readily available information and does not depend on simulations involving detailed engineering models. The method involves first aggregating feeders into like types and then correlating them, separately by hazard, to standard measures of reliability, namely, System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) and System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI), and the individual constituents of these measures. The correlations provide both new insights into the efficacy of accepted reliability management practices while and re-confirm long-understood, accepted practices. Importantly, the method does not seek to replace the need for detailed engineering analysis. Instead, in view of the significant costs involved in conducting these more involved analyses, the method is intended to help smaller utilities prioritize their more limited resources to maximize the efficacy of actions they take to improve reliability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2017

Methodological approach to the sensitivity analysis of failure effects in modern digital I and C systems - 136

Modern I and C systems of nuclear power plants increasingly use digital equipment, software-based applications for I and C functions and different types and topologies of communication networks as well. The structure, operation and communication of digital safety-related I and C systems are strongly influenced by the implemented automatic fault detection and fault treatment procedures as barriers against failure propagation. Thus, these I and C systems can change their operating states automatically during the operation time, e.g. due to the detection and correction of certain failure types. Reasonably because of these dynamic properties of digital I and C systems the use of classical fault tree and event tree methods solely for the reliability analysis of modern I and C systems is less suitable. These methods basically apply static models and do not consider the temporal changes of the operating state of the I and C system or equipment appropriately. In this paper, a recently developed approach for the sensitivity analysis of digital I and C systems will be introduced that allows to investigate the dynamic behavior of such systems in cases of internal faults and to quantify the effects on the system reliability. The development and testing of the analysis methodology is carried out using models of generic I and C systems with different typical architectures of stepwise increased complexity. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Value of Nuclear Energy to the Reliability of the North American Power System: Results for Western and Eastern Interconnections

This report documents the fulfillment of a milestone for the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program: completing a baseline study of regional impact of nuclear power plants and hydrogen production in maintaining grid services and power quality. Models have been comprehensively demonstrated for the Western Interconnection, or Western Electric Coordinating Council area, and in the Eastern Interconnection for scenarios representative of past extreme events (e.g., drought and heat waves). Understanding the impact on the reliability of the bulk electric system of any reduction in generation capacity from nuclear power, for any reason, is the motivation of this work. Factors that might lead to the premature or unplanned closure of nuclear plants, extended outages, or repurposing of nuclear power include: • Aging infrastructure: Many nuclear power plants in the U.S. are nearing the end of their designed operating lives. Upgrading aging infrastructure can be expensive, and some utilities may choose to retire plants rather than invest in costly upgrades. • Low wholesale electricity prices: The deregulation of the electricity market in many states has led to increased competition and driven down wholesale electricity prices, causing nuclear power operators to seek other revenue sources for their heat and power such as clean hydrogen production. • Renewables growth: The rapid growth of renewable energy sources like solar and wind power is posing a challenge to traditional generation sources like nuclear. While many see renewables as a key part of the clean energy transition, their intermittent nature requires additional grid solutions for reliable power supply. • The potential for regulatory decisions to be in conflict: In its 2021 rulemaking, EPA rule (86 FR 880), the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) set a compliance date for the ban on processing and distribution in commerce of Decabromodiphenyl Ether (DecaBDE). Since DecaBDE is in many components, particularly wiring, of nuclear power plants which are deemed safety-related or important to safety, three plants would not have been able to restart after their 2023 spring outages, and numerous others would have faced issues in the near future. Fortunately, in this case, the EPA provided relief to the nuclear energy industry. The report provides a summary of the significant role nuclear energy plays in the United States’ power generation mix, supplying around 20% of the nation’s electricity generation, spread across 28 U.S. states. Nuclear power is reliable, mostly unaffected by weather and seasonal changes, and provides a consistent source of baseload power. In terms of capacity, nuclear power plants account for as much as 26% of balancing area power generation capacity. Nuclear power also provides a substantial contribution (e.g., 10% of the inertia in the Eastern Interconnection) of the synchronous spinning mass/inertia that buffers the rate at which frequency changes when a load and generation imbalance occurs (e.g., a large plant trips or a load is suddenly shed due to a transmission outage). This contribution is critical for maintaining grid stability during sudden changes in load or generation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Operational Experience and Development of a Reliability Model for the ATR Demineralizer System (Slides)

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) is a light water reactor with aluminum clad driver fuel. Strict limits are implemented on pH, conductivity, and filterable solids to assure the performance of the driver fuel limit corrosion of the primary coolant system (PCS) pressure boundary components. A bypass demineralizer system is used to maintain PCS coolant within allowable bands for each of the aforementioned variables. Unlike many other reactors, the ATR does not have a filtration system. As such, failure of ion exchange resin in the bypass demineralizer can defeat the purpose of the system and result in high filterable solids in the PCS. Power operations with high filterable solids is prohibited by a technical safety requirement. This paper discusses recent failures of the ATR bypass demineralizer system. The testing and analysis done to deduce the cause of the failures is covered, as well as short term mitigative steps that were taken. To prevent the likelihood of future issues, historical data from the ATR and industry is used to develop a reliability model of the ATR bypass demineralizer system. Evidence of radiolytic decomposition of ion exchange resin was found in the cause investigation. As such, special attention is given to ion exchange resin failure due to high radiation environments. The reliability model is used to develop the ATR testing and maintenance program. Specifically, limits on resin service life are discussed.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning Based Network Parameter Estimation Using AMI Data

The expansion of distribution power system and the growing penetration of distributed energy resources present new challenges for situational awareness. Calibrating the extended system model with sensor measurements and maintaining the usability is critical for utilities. This paper presents a distribution network parameter estimation (DNPE) approach using machine learning (ML) and metering data that improve the quality of extended distribution power system modeling. The reliability model can improve the ability of endpoint data to be translated into network-level situational awareness in real time and help distribution system operators (DSOs) solve branch flow and voltage problems. In addition, a data analytic and automate processing scheme is proposed to improve the sensor data quality and prevent misleading information. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified with actual advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data on a real utility feeder model, while considering the higher penetration of photovoltaic power generation. The test of DNPE and study results are demonstrated in this paper.

Parameter estimation, machine learning, power dist↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhancing Short-Term Flexibility through Characterization of HVDC Transmission Systems

Efficient power grid operation hinges on maintaining safety and reliability through adaptable system flexibility standards. However, in a future power grid characterized by extensive renewable energy integration, conventional system flexibility and predetermined requirements may falter under extreme conditions. This paper addresses the formidable challenge of sustaining secure and dependable power grid operations under these circumstances, emphasizing the role of controllable high voltage direct current (HVdc) transmission systems in amplifying overall system flexibility and tackling operational complexities. To quantitatively assess short-term flexibility and its associated economic benefits from HVdc within specific regions, we propose a Power Flow Distribution Factors (PTDFs) based approach. This methodology takes into account both dispatchable generators and HVdc systems, pinpointing their contributions. Through an analysis of the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system, we demonstrate the practical application of this approach to scrutinize the impacts of existing and future HVdc lines.

Operational Flexibility, Multi-terminal HVdc, tran↗

DOE OSTI2021

Blockchain for Fault-Tolerant Grid Operations

Distribution system fault/failure has a direct impact on customers. Distribution systems are not designed with the contingency of one or more elements failing as the transmission system, however, distribution systems are more likely to have faults in comparison to transmission and generation systems. Most of the distribution systems have a radial design with the protection system assumption of unidirectional power flow. The radial design results in the disconnection of customers for any given component failure. The rapid deployment of distributed energy resources conflicts with the assumption of unidirectional power flow. To maintain/improve the distribution system fault tolerance for a grid with high penetration of distributed energy resources requires improvement. Blockchain can add value to improve fault-tolerant grid operations. That can be achieved using blockchain’s core features of distributed consensus-based decision-making process and immutability. In the process of preparing for an event or system restoration, there is a need for reliable data and system situational awareness. The system situational awareness enables accurate planning for possible scenarios and system restoration after an event, an area where blockchain’s distributed architecture can help. The value of blockchain for a fault-tolerant grid operation is elaborated with three use cases: 1) fault location, isolation, and service restoration; 2) topology identification; and 3) data configuration. These use cases demonstrate how blockchain-based architecture can facilitate bridging the vulnerabilities of the existing implementation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Attack-resilient algorithms and testbed federation for wide-area protection and control in smart grid

Today’s energy infrastructure is undergoing a massive transformation across all generation, transmission, and distribution systems to provide reliability, efficiency, and sustainability to the power system network. During the past 10 years, there has been a remarkable enhancement in developing close-loop wide-area protection and control (WAPAC) applications, such as automatic generation control (AGC), wide-area protection scheme (WAPS), synchrophasor-based wide-area voltage control system (WAVCS), etc., in the energy management system (EMS) to provide an adequate situational awareness to control center operators during physical disturbances and natural events. The rapid digitalization, unencrypted communication, and numerous data-sharing devices have increased digital access points that have exposed the grid network to countless cyberattacks pertinent to the WAPAC cybersecurity. Given the amount of complex grid network coupled with legacy infrastructures, it is untrustworthy to completely rely on information technology (IT)-based conventional security measures to defend against evolving cyberattacks. Hence, there is a compelling need to go beyond the traditional paradigm of ‘security by obscurity’ and ‘bolt-on’ security measures, and develop a suite of innovative security solutions at multiple layers to transform the current “fault-resilient” grid into “fault and attack-resilient” grid of the future. This dissertation specifically focuses on developing application-specific attack-resilient solutions for critical WAPAC applications in the smart grid. The first part of the study, Attack-Resilient Wide-Area Protection Scheme, presents a cyber-physical attack-resilient system (CPARS) for WAPS, where two anomaly detection methods are proposed to detect multi-level cyberattacks followed by the rules-based intrusion mitigation system (RIMS) to initiate effective mitigation strategies, tailored to these attacks, to restore the normal grid operation after disturbances. The first anomaly detection component, Machine learning-based Anomaly Detection for Centralized WAPS, discusses a novel architecture and methodology for developing a machine-learning-based anomaly detection system (ADS) for the centralized wide-area protection system (CWAPS) by applying the variational mode decomposition (VMD) technique and decision tree (DT) algorithms using cyber logs and synchrophasor measurements. The second component, Multi-Agent-based Anomaly Detection for Decentralized WAPS, presents a two-level hierarchical multi-agent-based decentralized WAPS against the system-aware stealthy cyber-attacks. Finally, for the RIMS, the state transition diagram-based mitigation measures are defined based on the grid operation states and experimental testing and evaluation are presented in a cyber-physical testbed environment. The second part of the study, Attack-Resilient Wide-Area Voltage Control System, addresses the existing vulnerabilities in the wide-area voltage control system (WAVCS), presents the methodology for performing an impact analysis during data integrity attacks, and proposes a data-driven attackresilient system (DARS) by incorporating machine learning-based ADS and rules-based anomaly mitigation system (RAMS) to detect these attacks and provide necessary mitigation actions to maintain the transient voltage stability after disturbances. Finally, the third part, Networked Federation Testbed (NEFTSec) for Smart Grid Cybersecurity, focuses on developing an interconnected federated testbed through a common network like the internet, describes its conceptual architectures, and also presents its design components for experimental testing, validation, and evaluation. Further, it presents the co-simulation interface algorithm (CIA) to facilitate the geographically-dispersed real-time distributed simulation (GD-RTDS) during the cyber-physical federation. In general, this dissertation presents innovative attack-resilient solutions for WAPAC applications that are experimentally tested and evaluated using the PowerCyber testbed and NEFTSec platform to accelerate the transition of state-of-the-art research works to the real-field deployments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Island Power Systems With High Levels of Inverter-Based Resources: Stability and Reliability Challenges

As many island power systems seek to integrate high levels of renewable energy, they face new challenges on top of the existing difficulties of operating an isolated grid. With their drastically declining cost, variable renewables, such as wind and photovoltaics (PVs), are increasingly being integrated into island grids to reduce the use of imported fuels. These deployments of renewable energy are dominated by PV and wind generators, which bring unique challenges of their own. While the integration issues span numerous timescales (from microseconds to many months), this article focuses on reliability and stability challenges on short timescales (microseconds to seconds). In other words, we seek to answer (to the extent that it is currently known) how to ensure the frequency and voltage stability in an island power system with very high instantaneous levels of wind and PVs. And because island power systems are often among the first to reach these very high instantaneous levels of wind and PV generation, we note that they are forging a path for larger interconnected power systems to follow.

41 EE - Solar Energy Technologies Office (EE-4S)↗

DOE OSTI2018

Final Report to the National Energy Technology Laboratory on FY14- FY15 Cooperative Research with the Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions

The Power System Engineering Research Center (PSERC) engages in technological, market, and policy research for an efficient, secure, resilient, adaptable, and economic U.S. electric power system. PSERC, as a founding partner of the Consortium for Electric Reliability Technology Solutions (CERTS), conducted a multi-year program of research for U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability (OE) to develop new methods, tools, and technologies to protect and enhance the reliability and efficiency of the U.S. electric power system as competitive electricity market structures evolve, and as the grid moves toward wide-scale use of decentralized generation (such as renewable energy sources) and demand-response programs. Phase I of OE’s funding for PSERC, under cooperative agreement DE-FC26-09NT43321, started in fiscal year (FY) 2009 and ended in FY2013. It was administered by DOE’s National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) through a cooperative agreement with Arizona State University (ASU). ASU provided sub-awards to the participating PSERC universities. This document is PSERC’s final report to NETL on the activities for OE, conducted through CERTS, from September 2015 through September 2017 utilizing FY 2014 to FY 2015 funding under cooperative agreement DE-OE0000670. PSERC is a thirteen-university consortium with over 30 industry members. Since 1996, PSERC has been engaged in research and education efforts with the mission of “empowering minds to engineer the future electric energy system.” Its work is focused on achieving: • An efficient, secure, resilient, adaptable, and economic electric power infrastructure serving society • A new generation of educated technical professionals in electric power • Knowledgeable decision-makers on critical energy policy issues • Sustained, quality university programs in electric power engineering. PSERC core research is funded by industry, with a budget supporting approximately 30 principal investigators and some 70 graduate students and other researchers. Its researchers are multi-disciplinary, conducting research in three principal areas: power systems, power markets and policy, and transmission and distribution technologies. The research is collaborative; each project involves researchers typically at two universities working with industry advisors who have expressed interest in the project. Examples of topics for recent PSERC research projects include grid integration of renewables and energy storage, new tools for taking advantage of increased penetration of real-time system measurements, advanced system protection methods to maintain grid reliability, and risk and reliability assessment of increasingly complex cyber-enabled power systems. A PSERC’s objective is to proactively address the technical and policy challenges of U.S. electric power systems. To achieve this objective, PSERC works with CERTS to conduct technical research on advanced applications and investigate the design of fair and transparent electricity markets; these research topics align with CERTS research areas 1 and 2: Real-time Grid Reliability Management (Area 1), and Reliability and Markets (Area 2). The CERTS research areas overlap with the PSERC research stems: Power Systems, Power Markets, and Transmission and Distribution Technologies, as described on the PSERC website (see http://www.pserc.org/research/research_program.aspx). The performers were with Arizona State University (ASU), Cornell University (CU), University of California at Berkeley (UCB), and University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC). PSERC research activities in the area of reliability and markets focused on electric market and power policy analyses. The resulting studies suggest ways to frame best practices using organized markets for managing U.S. grid assets reliably and to identify highest priority areas for improvement. PSERC research activities in the area of advanced applications focused on mid- to long-term software research and development, with anticipated outcomes that move innovative ideas toward real-world application. Under the CERTS research area of Real-time Grid Reliability Management, PSERC has been focused on Advanced Applications Research and Development (AARD), a subgroup of activities that works to develop advanced applications and tools to more effectively operate the electricity delivery system, by enabling advanced analysis, visualization, monitoring and alarming, and decision support capabilities for grid operators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2015

Significance of Dynamic and Transient Analysis in the Design and Operation of Hybrid Energy Systems

Energy systems were historically designed and operated with a specific energy conversion objective, while managing loads and resources. In the recent years, the increased utilization of non-dispatchable renewable sources such as wind and solar has played a role in power quality and the reliability of power systems. In order to mitigate the risk associated with the non-dispatchable resources an integrated approach, such as Hybrid Energy Systems (HES), has to be taken, integrating the loads and resource management between the traditional thermal power plants and the non-dispatchable resources. As our electric energy becomes more diverse in its generation resources, the HES with its operational control system, its real-time view and its dynamic decisions making will become an essential part of the integrated energy systems and improve the overall grid reliability. The operational constraints of the energy sources on both the thermal power plants and the non-dispatchable resources in HES, plays a vital role in the planning and design stage. It is an established fact that the choice of energy source depends on the available natural resources and possible infrastructure. A critical component of decision-making depends on the complementary nature and controllability of the energy sources to supply the load demands with high reliability. Controllability of complex HES to achieve desired performance and flexibility is implemented via coordinated control systems while simultaneously generating electricity and other useful products such as useful heat or hydrogen. These systems are based on instrumentation, signal processing, control theory, and engineering system design. The entire HES along with the control systems are characterized by widely varying time constants. Hence, for a well-coordinated control and operation, we propose physics based modeling of the subsystems to assist in a dynamic and transient analysis. Dynamic and transient analysis in real and non-real time domain of the potential sources is capable of providing satisfactory results at the feasibility analysis stage. A simplified HES consisting of complementary energy sources is used to demonstrate the proposed approach. Suitable real time simulations to perform dynamic and transient analysis will be performed to verify results from the non-real time analysis. The role of such analyses, especially the real time dynamic and transient analysis for manual controls is elaborated. It is also discussed that faster than real time simulation will pave the future for controller rooms and hence manual control procedures. Multiple tools such as Real Time Simulator, Matlab®, Simulink®, PSCAD®, MOOSE, etc. are expected to be used for the HES analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Robust and resilient coordination of feeders with uncertain distributed energy resources: from real-time control to long-term planning

To enable flexible demand and ensure reliable and economical operation of distribution systems, we present a novel hierarchical scheme that actively coordinates responsive behind-the-meter grid resources, including distributed energy resources (DERs), to reliably manage each unbalanced distribution feeder and exploits the available flexibility to economically optimize the entire network. Each layer of the scheme employs advanced optimization methods at different timescales to ensure that the system operates within both grid and device limits. The hierarchy is validated in a large-scale realistic simulation based on data from the industry. Simulation results show that coordination of flexibility improves both system reliability and economics, and enables greater penetration of solar PV. Discussion is also provided on the practical viability of the required communications and controls to implement the presented scheme within a large DSO.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Reliability‐based layout optimization in offshore wind energy systems

Abstract Existing methods for optimizing wind array layouts typically use power or cost objectives and rarely consider reliability‐based objectives. Component and system failure rates, however, are dependent on location‐specific wind conditions, are influenced by array layout and wake interactions, and have a direct and significant impact on capital costs, operational costs, and power production. Although wind power plant models exist that calculate wind loads with sufficient resolution to capture component loading dynamics from wind conditions, they are computationally expensive and thus not suitable for research applications requiring many evaluations, particularly optimization. This study describes the development of computationally efficient, reliability‐based layout optimization methods, enabling us to explore the relationship between component reliability and layout optimization. These methods include the surrogate modeling of the planet bearing life based on varying wind conditions simulated in FAST.Farm and the formulation of reliability‐based objectives based on failure cost and power production models. Through demonstration of this method, we explore how wind conditions, objective functions, and capacity density influence reliability‐based layout optimization. Results indicate that considering reliability alongside power production can reduce failure costs associated with replacement costs and downtime while maintaining or improving power production. Our conclusions highlight the opportunity for wind power plant developers to integrate reliability and operational expenditures alongside performance and capital expenditure objectives in plant design and development to improve plant performance and costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the Resource Adequacy and Community Impacts of an Evolving Grid: Considerations for State Regulators

As U.S. power systems continue to decarbonize, state regulators must be able to broadly assess the cost and reliability implications of proposed fossil retirements and the corresponding resources that are coming online to replace them. Specifically, regulators must evaluate whether proposed infrastructure investments are sufficient to ensure the long-term reliability of the system, while also protecting rate payers by ensuring that such investments are necessary and not excessive. Broadly speaking, this objective is typically framed in terms of maintaining long-term resource adequacy at the lowest cost, while also ensuring that other social and/or environmental objectives are satisfied. System planners currently have a host of sophisticated analytical tools at their disposal to evaluate the cost-benefit trade-offs of different approaches to ensuring resource adequacy. However, most of these tools and associated metrics were designed with traditional power systems in mind. Over the past decade, it has become increasingly clear that the metrics and models that have reliably assessed resource adequacy in systems dominated by large thermal and hydropower resources will be insufficient for systems with significant contributions from emerging technologies such as wind, solar and storage. Therefore, in recent years many new metrics and modeling approaches have been developed, and are increasingly being implemented, to meet the needs of the clean energy transition.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Economics of Power System Transitions

Electricity generated by fossil fuels is dispatchable, meaning that generators can be turned on when needed. By contrast, renewable energy tends to be intermittent because of the variability of natural sources such as wind and sunlight. New approaches are needed to solve the challenges to electricity systems posed by the growing share of variable renewable energy (VRE) in these systems. Specifically, how should the physical power system and markets for electricity be structured to deliver electricity at low cost and reflect consumers’ preferences for reliability? Current power systems have largely achieved these two goals through a competitive market for generation based on marginal cost pricing and through mandated overcapacity to ensure 100 percent reliability to consumers. Decarbonization-induced increases in the share of generation from nondispatchable VRE create operational challenges: ensuring 100 percent reliability in a VRE-dominated system will be costly and inefficient. Preferences for reliability are heterogeneous, as some consumers will insist on 100 percent reliable energy, whereas others may be willing to forgo reliability for lower cost. In this article, we discuss ways to design a power system and electricity market that can address this inefficiency.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗