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At least 811 records · Page 45

Life Predicted in a Probabilistic Design Space for Brittle Materials With Transient Loads

Analytical techniques have progressively become more sophisticated, and now we can consider the probabilistic nature of the entire space of random input variables on the lifetime reliability of brittle structures. This was demonstrated with NASA s CARES/Life (Ceramic Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures/Life) code combined with the commercially available ANSYS/Probabilistic Design System (ANSYS/PDS), a probabilistic analysis tool that is an integral part of the ANSYS finite-element analysis program. ANSYS/PDS allows probabilistic loads, component geometry, and material properties to be considered in the finite-element analysis. CARES/Life predicts the time dependent probability of failure of brittle material structures under generalized thermomechanical loading--such as that found in a turbine engine hot-section. Glenn researchers coupled ANSYS/PDS with CARES/Life to assess the effects of the stochastic variables of component geometry, loading, and material properties on the predicted life of the component for fully transient thermomechanical loading and cyclic loading.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗

Controlling Buffeting Loads by Rudder and Piezo-Actuation

High performance aircraft, especially those with twin vertical tails, encounter unsteady buffet loads when flying at high angles of attack. These stochastic loads result in significant stresses, which may cause fatigue damage leading to restricted capabilities and availability of the aircraft. An international collaborative research activity among Australia, Canada and the United States, conducted under the auspices of The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP) contributed resources toward a program that coalesced a broad range of technical knowledge and expertise into a single investigation to demonstrate the enhanced performance and capability of the advanced active Buffet Load Alleviation ( ) control system in preparation for a flight test demonstration. The research team investigated the use of active structural control to alleviate the damaging structural response to these loads by applying advanced directional piezoelectric actuators, the aircraft rudder, switch mode amplifiers, and advanced control strategies on an F/A-18 aircraft empennage. Some results of the full-scale investigation are presented herein.

Moses, Robert W.↗

Energetic Consistency and Coupling of the Mean and Covariance Dynamics

The dynamical state of the ocean and atmosphere is taken to be a large dimensional random vector in a range of large-scale computational applications, including data assimilation, ensemble prediction, sensitivity analysis, and predictability studies. In each of these applications, numerical evolution of the covariance matrix of the random state plays a central role, because this matrix is used to quantify uncertainty in the state of the dynamical system. Since atmospheric and ocean dynamics are nonlinear, there is no closed evolution equation for the covariance matrix, nor for the mean state. Therefore approximate evolution equations must be used. This article studies theoretical properties of the evolution equations for the mean state and covariance matrix that arise in the second-moment closure approximation (third- and higher-order moment discard). This approximation was introduced by EPSTEIN [1969] in an early effort to introduce a stochastic element into deterministic weather forecasting, and was studied further by FLEMING [1971a,b], EPSTEIN and PITCHER [1972], and PITCHER [1977], also in the context of atmospheric predictability. It has since fallen into disuse, with a simpler one being used in current large-scale applications. The theoretical results of this article make a case that this approximation should be reconsidered for use in large-scale applications, however, because the second moment closure equations possess a property of energetic consistency that the approximate equations now in common use do not possess. A number of properties of solutions of the second-moment closure equations that result from this energetic consistency will be established.

Cohn, Stephen E.↗

Controlled Parametric Forcing During Directional Solidification of a Bulk Organic Alloy Under Microgravity

The response of dendritic microstructures to step-like pulling velocity conditions is investigated using microgravity directional solidification experiments conducted on DECLIC-DSI combined with phase-field simulations. Under a constant pulling velocity of 1.5 µm/s, the evolution toward steady-state growth is characterized in terms of primary spacing, dendrite drift, and tip dynamics. For the first time, side-view observations enabled direct measurement of tip radius and sidebranching frequency. When step-like oscillations of the pulling velocity are imposed, the dendritic array exhibits a strongly period-dependent response: short periods lead to rapid tip adaptation, whereas longer periods induce a phase lag between tip position and morphology, resulting in progressive tip flattening and, above a critical period, interface destabilization and dendrite splitting. Quantitative phase-field simulations, including a realistic thermal field and stochastic noise, reproduce the experimental observations and provide insight into the governing mechanisms, highlighting the role of characteristic relaxation times, sequence-dependent effects, and the irreversible reorganization of the microstructure following splitting.

Microgravity↗

The Impact of Model and Rainfall Forcing Errors on Characterizing Soil Moisture Uncertainty in Land Surface Modeling

The contribution of rainfall forcing errors relative to model (structural and parameter) uncertainty in the prediction of soil moisture is investigated by integrating the NASA Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), forced with hydro-meteorological data, in the Oklahoma region. Rainfall-forcing uncertainty is introduced using a stochastic error model that generates ensemble rainfall fields from satellite rainfall products. The ensemble satellite rain fields are propagated through CLSM to produce soil moisture ensembles. Errors in CLSM are modeled with two different approaches: either by perturbing model parameters (representing model parameter uncertainty) or by adding randomly generated noise (representing model structure and parameter uncertainty) to the model prognostic variables. Our findings highlight that the method currently used in the NASA GEOS-5 Land Data Assimilation System to perturb CLSM variables poorly describes the uncertainty in the predicted soil moisture, even when combined with rainfall model perturbations. On the other hand, by adding model parameter perturbations to rainfall forcing perturbations, a better characterization of uncertainty in soil moisture simulations is observed. Specifically, an analysis of the rank histograms shows that the most consistent ensemble of soil moisture is obtained by combining rainfall and model parameter perturbations. When rainfall forcing and model prognostic perturbations are added, the rank histogram shows a U-shape at the domain average scale, which corresponds to a lack of variability in the forecast ensemble. The more accurate estimation of the soil moisture prediction uncertainty obtained by combining rainfall and parameter perturbations is encouraging for the application of this approach in ensemble data assimilation systems.

Maggioni, V.↗

The Role of Aerosols on Precipitation Processes: Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

Cloud microphysics is inevitably affected by the smoke particle (CCN, cloud condensation nuclei) size distributions below the clouds. Therefore, size distributions parameterized as spectral bin microphysics are needed to explicitly study the effects of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud development, rainfall production, and rainfall rates for convective clouds. Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The formulation for the explicit spectral bin microphysical processes is based on solving stochastic kinetic equations for the size distribution functions of water droplets (i.e., cloud droplets and raindrops), and several types of ice particles [i.e. pristine ice crystals (columnar and plate-like), snow (dendrites and aggregates), graupel and frozen drops/hail]. Each type is described by a special size distribution function containing many categories (i.e., 33 bins). Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep cloud systems in the west Pacific warm pool region, the sub-tropics (Florida) and midlatitudes using identical thermodynamic conditions but with different concentrations of CCN: a low "clean" concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. Results indicate that the low CCN concentration case produces rainfall at the surface sooner than the high CeN case but has less cloud water mass aloft. Because the spectral-bin model explicitly calculates and allows for the examination of both the mass and number concentration of species in each size category, a detailed analysis of the instantaneous size spectrum can be obtained for these cases. It is shown that since the low (CN case produces fewer droplets, larger sizes develop due to greater condensational and collection growth, leading to a broader size spectrum in comparison to the high CCN case. Sensitivity tests were performed to identify the impact of ice processes, radiation and large-scale influence on cloud-aerosol interactive processes, especially regarding surface rainfall amounts and characteristics (i.e., heavy or convective versus light or stratiform types). In addition, an inert tracer was included to follow the vertical redistribution of aerosols by cloud processes. We will also give a brief review from observational evidence on the role of aerosol on precipitation processes.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Development of a GCR Event-based Risk Model

A goal at NASA is to develop event-based systems biology models of space radiation risks that will replace the current dose-based empirical models. Complex and varied biochemical signaling processes transmit the initial DNA and oxidative damage from space radiation into cellular and tissue responses. Mis-repaired damage or aberrant signals can lead to genomic instability, persistent oxidative stress or inflammation, which are causative of cancer and CNS risks. Protective signaling through adaptive responses or cell repopulation is also possible. We are developing a computational simulation approach to galactic cosmic ray (GCR) effects that is based on biological events rather than average quantities such as dose, fluence, or dose equivalent. The goal of the GCR Event-based Risk Model (GERMcode) is to provide a simulation tool to describe and integrate physical and biological events into stochastic models of space radiation risks. We used the quantum multiple scattering model of heavy ion fragmentation (QMSFRG) and well known energy loss processes to develop a stochastic Monte-Carlo based model of GCR transport in spacecraft shielding and tissue. We validated the accuracy of the model by comparing to physical data from the NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL). Our simulation approach allows us to time-tag each GCR proton or heavy ion interaction in tissue including correlated secondary ions often of high multiplicity. Conventional space radiation risk assessment employs average quantities, and assumes linearity and additivity of responses over the complete range of GCR charge and energies. To investigate possible deviations from these assumptions, we studied several biological response pathway models of varying induction and relaxation times including the ATM, TGF -Smad, and WNT signaling pathways. We then considered small volumes of interacting cells and the time-dependent biophysical events that the GCR would produce within these tissue volumes to estimate how GCR event rates mapped to biological signaling induction and relaxation times. We considered several hypotheses related to signaling and cancer risk, and then performed simulations for conditions where aberrant or adaptive signaling would occur on long-duration space mission. Our results do not support the conventional assumptions of dose, linearity and additivity. A discussion on how event-based systems biology models, which focus on biological signaling as the mechanism to propagate damage or adaptation, can be further developed for cancer and CNS space radiation risk projections is given.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

Approximation methods for stochastic petri nets

Stochastic Marked Graphs are a concurrent decision free formalism provided with a powerful synchronization mechanism generalizing conventional Fork Join Queueing Networks. In some particular cases the analysis of the throughput can be done analytically. Otherwise the analysis suffers from the classical state explosion problem. Embedded in the divide and conquer paradigm, approximation techniques are introduced for the analysis of stochastic marked graphs and Macroplace/Macrotransition-nets (MPMT-nets), a new subclass introduced herein. MPMT-nets are a subclass of Petri nets that allow limited choice, concurrency and sharing of resources. The modeling power of MPMT is much larger than that of marked graphs, e.g., MPMT-nets can model manufacturing flow lines with unreliable machines and dataflow graphs where choice and synchronization occur. The basic idea leads to the notion of a cut to split the original net system into two subnets. The cuts lead to two aggregated net systems where one of the subnets is reduced to a single transition. A further reduction leads to a basic skeleton. The generalization of the idea leads to multiple cuts, where single cuts can be applied recursively leading to a hierarchical decomposition. Based on the decomposition, a response time approximation technique for the performance analysis is introduced. Also, delay equivalence, which has previously been introduced in the context of marked graphs by Woodside et al., Marie's method and flow equivalent aggregation are applied to the aggregated net systems. The experimental results show that response time approximation converges quickly and shows reasonable accuracy in most cases. The convergence of Marie's method and flow equivalent aggregation are applied to the aggregated net systems. The experimental results show that response time approximation converges quickly and shows reasonable accuracy in most cases. The convergence of Marie's is slower, but the accuracy is generally better. Delay equivalence often fails to converge, while flow equivalent aggregation can lead to potentially bad results if a strong dependence of the mean completion time on the interarrival process exists.

Jungnitz, Hauke Joerg↗

Implicit Kalman filtering

For an implicitly defined discrete system, a new algorithm for Kalman filtering is developed and an efficient numerical implementation scheme is proposed. Unlike the traditional explicit approach, the implicit filter can be readily applied to ill-conditioned systems and allows for generalization to descriptor systems. The implementation of the implicit filter depends on the solution of the congruence matrix equation (A1)(Px)(AT1) = Py. We develop a general iterative method for the solution of this equation, and prove necessary and sufficient conditions for convergence. It is shown that when the system matrices of an implicit system are sparse, the implicit Kalman filter requires significantly less computer time and storage to implement as compared to the traditional explicit Kalman filter. Simulation results are presented to illustrate and substantiate the theoretical developments.

Non-NASA Center↗

Rationale for two phase polymer system microgravity separation experiments

The two-phase systems that result when aqueous solutions of dextran and poly(ethylene glycol) are mixed at concentrations above a few percent are discussed. They provide useful media for the partition and isolation of macromolecules and cell subpopulations. By manipulating their composition, separations based on a variety of molecular and surface properties are achieved, including membrane hydrophobic properties, cell surface charge, and membrane antigenicity. Work on the mechanism of cell partition shows there is a randomizing, nonthermal energy present which reduces separation resolution. This stochastic energy is probably associated with hydrodynamic interactions present during separation. Because such factors should be markedly reduced in microgravity, a series of shuttle experiments to indicate approaches to increasing the resolution of the procedure are planned.

Brooks, D. E.↗

Computer Modeling of Sand Transport on Mars Using a Compart-Mentalized Fluids Algorithm (CFA)

It has been postulated that aeolian transport on Mars may be significantly different from that on Earth. From laboratory experiments simulating martian grain transport [2], it has been observed that (saltating) grains striking the bed can cause hundreds of secondary reptation trajectories when impact occurs at speeds postulated for Mars. Some of the ballistically induced trajectories "die ouf' and effectively join the ranks on the creep population that is merely nudged along by impact. Many of the induced reptation trajectories, however, are sufficiently high for the grains to become part of the saltation load (it is irrelevant to the boundary layer how a grain attained its initial lift force). When these grains, in turn, strike the surface, they too are capable of inducing more reptating grains. This cascading effect has been discussed in connection with terrestrial aeolian transport in an attempt to dispel the notion that sand motion is divisible only into creep and saltation loads. On Earth, only a few grains are splashed by impact. On Mars, it may be hundreds. We developed a computer model to address this phenomenon because there are some important ramifications: First, this ratio may mean that martian aeolian transport is dominated by reptation flux rather than saltation. On Earth, the flux would be a roughly balanced mixture between reptation/creep and saltation. On Venus, there would be no transport other than by saltation. In other words, an understanding of planetary aeolian processes may not be necessarily understood by extrapolating from the "Earth case", with only gravity and atmospheric density/viscosity being considered as variables. Second, the reptation flux on Mars may be self sustaining, so that little input is required by the wind once transport has been initiated. The number of grains saturating the boundary layer near the bed may mean that average grain speed on Mars might conceivably be less than that on Earth. This would say much for models of sand comminution on Mars. A multiple-grain transport model using just the equations of grain motion describing lift and drag is impossible to develop owing to stochastic effects --the very effects we wish to model. Also, unless we were to employ supercomputing techniques and extremely complex computer codes that could deal with millions of grains simultaneously, it would also be difficult to model grain transport if we attempted to consider every grain in motion. No existing computer models were found that satisfactorily used the equations of motion to arrive at transport flux numbers for the different populations of saltation and reptation. Modeling all the grains in a transport system was an intractable problem within our resources, and thus we developed what we believe to be a new modeling approach to simulating grain transport. The CFA deals with grain populations, but considers them to belong to various compartmentalized fluid units in the boundary layer. In this way, the model circumvents the multigrain problem by dealing primarily with the consequences of grain transport --momentum transfer between air and grains, which is the physical essence of a dynamic grain-fluid mixture. We thus chose to model the aeolian transport process as a superposition of fluids. These fluids include the air as well as particle populations of various properties. The prime property distinguishing these fluids is upward and downward grain motion. In a normal saltation trajectory, a grain's downwind velocity increases with time, so a rising grain will have a smaller downwind velocity than a failing grain. Because of this disparity in rising and falling grain proper-ties, it seemed appropriate to track these as two separate grain populations within the same physical space. The air itself can be considered a separate fluid superimposed within and interacting with the various grain-cloud "fluids". Additional informaiton is contained in the original.

Marshall, J.↗

Stochastic Reduced Order Models with Python (SROMPy)

Stochastic Reduced Order Models with Python (SROMPy) is a software package developed to enable user-friendly utilization of the stochastic reduced order model (SROM) approach for uncertainty quantification. A SROM is a low dimensional, discrete approximation to a random quantity that enables efficient and non-intrusive stochastic computations. With SROMPy, a user can easily generate a SROM to approximate a random variable or vector described by several different types of probability distributions using the Python programming language. Once a SROM is constructed, the software can be used to propagate uncertainty through a user-defined computational model to estimate statistics of a given quantity of interest. This report is meant to introduce the SROMPy module and brie y demonstrate its capabilities. A simple example of a spring-mass system with a random input is included to illustrate the practicality of the SROM approach to uncertainty quantification and relative ease of applying it with SROMPy. The example includes a comparison with a solution obtained using classical Monte Carlo simulation, demonstrating the similarities and advantages of using the SROM approach.

Warner, James E.↗

Comprehensive modeling of turbulent particulate flows using Eulerian and Lagrangian schemes

This paper addresses turbulent particle dispersion and modulation effects in dilute gas-particle turbulent flows using the Eulerian and Lagrangian modeling approaches. Gradient diffusion approximations are employed in the Eulerian formulation, while a stochastic procedure is utilized to simulate turbulent dispersion in the Lagrangian formulation. The k-epsilon turbulence model is used to characterize the time and length scales of the continuous phase turbulence. For the particle size and loading considered, the turbulence transport equations must be modified to account for the modulation effects. Models are proposed for both Eulerian and Lagrangian schemes. Comparisons and predictions are made in fully developed gas-solid pipe flow and confined coaxial jets laden with particles. For the monodispersed system investigated, Eulerian approach is less expensive and gives more consistent results than the Lagrangian approach. The Lagrangian technique should be further developed to eliminate current inherent inconsistencies especially with regard to the symmetry boundary condition.

Adeniji-Fashola, A.↗

Megadroughts in Southwestern North America in ECHO-G Millennial Simulations and Their Comparison to Proxy Drought Reconstructions

Simulated hydroclimate variability in millennium-length forced transient and control simulations from the ECHAM and the global Hamburg Ocean Primitive Equation (ECHO-G) coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) is analyzed and compared to 1000 years of reconstructed Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) variability from the North American Drought Atlas (NADA). The ability of the model to simulate megadroughts in the North American southwest is evaluated. (NASW: 25deg42.5degN, 125deg-105degW). Megadroughts in the ECHO-G AOGCM are found to be similar in duration and magnitude to those estimated from the NADA. The droughts in the forced simulation are not, however, temporally synchronous with those in the paleoclimate record, nor are there significant differences between the drought features simulated in the forced and control runs. These results indicate that model-simulated megadroughts can result from internal variability of the modeled climate system rather than as a response to changes in exogenous forcings. Although the ECHO-G AOGCM is capable of simulating megadroughts through persistent La Nina-like conditions in the tropical Pacific, other mechanisms can produce similarly extreme NASW moisture anomalies in the model. In particular, the lack of low-frequency coherence between NASW soil moisture and simulated modes of climate variability like the El Nino-Southern Oscillation, Pacific decadal oscillation, and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation during identified drought periods suggests that stochastic atmospheric variability can contribute significantly to the occurrence of simulated megadroughts in the NASW. These findings indicate that either an expanded paradigm is needed to understand multidecadal hydroclimate variability in the NASW or AOGCMs may incorrectly simulate the strength and/or dynamics of the connection between NASW hydroclimate variability and the tropical Pacific.

variability↗

Accumulation of the terrestrial planets and implications concerning lunar origin

In order to provide a context for understanding lunar formation, 28 new three-dimensional simulations of terrestrial planet formation from a gas-free planetesimal swarm have been carried out. The natural orbital and collisional evolution of 500 initial planetesimals ranging in mass from 5.7 x 10 to the 24th g to 1.1 x 10 to the 26th g is followed until only final planets in noncrossing orbits remain. The results are in general agreement with the number, size, and orbits of the observed terrestrial planets, but also show considerable variation of stochastic origin. These results are combined with 11 simulations using 500 bodies of equal initial mass presented earlier, as well as with some other numerical studies, to conclude that for a wide range of initial conditions, terrestrial planet accumulation was characterized by giant impacts, ranging in mass up to 3 times the mass of Mars, at typical impact velocities of about 9 km/sec. These large planetesimals and the impacts they produce are sufficient to explain the unexpectedly large angular momentum of the earth-moon system.

Wetherill, G. W.↗

Gravity-Assist Trajectories to the Ice Giants: An Automated Method to Catalog Mass- Or Time-Optimal Solutions

This work presents an automated method of calculating mass (or time) optimal gravity-assist trajectories without a priori knowledge of the flyby-body combination. Since gravity assists are particularly crucial for reaching the outer Solar System, we use the Ice Giants, Uranus and Neptune, as example destinations for this work. Catalogs are also provided that list the most attractive trajectories found over launch dates ranging from 2024 to 2038. The tool developed to implement this method, called the Python EMTG Automated Trade Study Application (PEATSA), iteratively runs the Evolutionary Mission Trajectory Generator (EMTG), a NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in-house trajectory optimization tool. EMTG finds gravity-assist trajectories with impulsive maneuvers using a multiple-shooting structure along with stochastic methods (such as monotonic basin hopping) and may be run with or without an initial guess provided. PEATSA runs instances of EMTG in parallel over a grid of launch dates. After each set of runs completes, the best results within a neighborhood of launch dates are used to seed all other cases in that neighborhood-allowing the solutions across the range of launch dates to improve over each iteration. The results here are compared against trajectories found using a grid-search technique, and PEATSA is found to outperform the grid-search results for most launch years considered.

Hughes, Kyle M.↗

Gravity-Assist Trajectories to the Ice Giants: An Automated Method to Catalog Mass-or Time-Optimal Solutions

This work presents an automated method of calculating mass (or time) optimal gravity-assist trajectories without a priori knowledge of the flyby-body combination. Since gravity assists are particularly crucial for reaching the outer Solar System, we use the Ice Giants, Uranus and Neptune, as example destinations for this work. Catalogs are also provided that list the most attractive trajectories found over launch dates ranging from 2024 to 2038. The tool developed to implement this method, called the Python EMTG Automated Trade Study Application (PEATSA), iteratively runs the Evolutionary Mission Trajectory Generator (EMTG), a NASA Goddard Space Flight Center in-house trajectory optimization tool. EMTG finds gravity-assist trajectories with impulsive maneuvers using a multiple-shooting structure along with stochastic methods (such as monotonic basin hopping) and may be run with or without an initial guess provided. PEATSA runs instances of EMTG in parallel over a grid of launch dates. After each set of runs completes, the best results within a neighborhood of launch dates are used to seed all other cases in that neighborhood---allowing the solutions across the range of launch dates to improve over each iteration. The results here are compared against trajectories found using a grid-search technique, and PEATSA is found to outperform the grid-search results for most launch years considered.

Hughes, Kyle M.↗

An approach to rescheduling activities based on determination of priority and disruptivity

A constraint-based scheduling system called SPIKE is being used to create long term schedules for the Hubble Space Telescope. Feedback for the spacecraft or from other ground support systems may invalidate some scheduling decisions and those activities concerned must be reconsidered. A function rescheduling priority is defined which for a given activity performs a heuristic analysis and produces a relative numerical value which is used to rank all such entities in the order that they should be rescheduled. A function disruptivity is also defined that is used to place a relative numeric value on how much a pre-existing schedule would be changed in order to reschedule an activity. Using these functions, two algorithms (a stochastic neural network approach and an exhaustive search approach) are proposed to find the best place to reschedule an activity. Prototypes were implemented and preliminary testing reveals that the exhaustive technique produces only marginally better results at much greater computational cost.

Sponsler, Jeffrey L.↗