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At least 811 records · Page 45

Leveraging graph clustering techniques for cyber‐physical system analysis to enhance disturbance characterisation

Abstract Cyber‐physical systems have behaviour that crosses domain boundaries during events such as planned operational changes and malicious disturbances. Traditionally, the cyber and physical systems are monitored separately and use very different toolsets and analysis paradigms. The security and privacy of these cyber‐physical systems requires improved understanding of the combined cyber‐physical system behaviour and methods for holistic analysis. Therefore, the authors propose leveraging clustering techniques on cyber‐physical data from smart grid systems to analyse differences and similarities in behaviour during cyber‐, physical‐, and cyber‐physical disturbances. Since clustering methods are commonly used in data science to examine statistical similarities in order to sort large datasets, these algorithms can assist in identifying useful relationships in cyber‐physical systems. Through this analysis, deeper insights can be shared with decision‐makers on what cyber and physical components are strongly or weakly linked, what cyber‐physical pathways are most traversed, and the criticality of certain cyber‐physical nodes or edges. This paper presents several types of clustering methods for cyber‐physical graphs of smart grid systems and their application in assessing different types of disturbances for informing cyber‐physical situational awareness. The collection of these clustering techniques provide a foundational basis for cyber‐physical graph interdependency analysis.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A new method to reduce the statistical and systematic uncertainty of chance coincidence backgrounds measured with waveform digitizers

We present a new method for measuring chance-coincidence backgrounds during the collection of coincidence data. The method relies on acquiring data with near-zero dead time, which is now realistic due to the increasing deployment of flash electronic-digitizer (waveform digitizer) techniques. An experiment designed to use this new method is capable of acquiring more coincidence data, and a much reduced statistical fluctuation of the measured background. A statistical analysis is presented, and us ed to derive a figure of merit for the new method. Factors of four improvement over other analyses are realistic. The technique is illustrated with preliminary data taken as part of a program to make new measurements of the prompt fission neutron spectra at Los Alamo s Neutron Science Center. In conclusion, it is expected that the these measurements will occur in a regime where the maximum figure of merit will be exploited

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Explicit formula for the Holevo bound for two-parameter qubit-state estimation problem

The main contribution of this paper is to derive an explicit expression for the fundamental precision bound, the Holevo bound, for estimating any two-parameter family of qubit mixed-states in terms of quantum versions of Fisher information. The obtained formula depends solely on the symmetric logarithmic derivative (SLD), the right logarithmic derivative (RLD) Fisher information, and a given weight matrix. This result immediately provides necessary and sufficient conditions for the following two important classes of quantum statistical models; the Holevo bound coincides with the SLD Cramér-Rao bound and it does with the RLD Cramér-Rao bound. One of the important results of this paper is that a general model other than these two special cases exhibits an unexpected property: the structure of the Holevo bound changes smoothly when the weight matrix varies. In particular, it always coincides with the RLD Cramér-Rao bound for a certain choice of the weight matrix. Several examples illustrate these findings.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

New high statistics results from the MINERvA experiment Medium Energy run

The MINERvA experiment has completed its physics run using the 6 GeV, on-axis NuMI ME beam at Fermilab. The experiment received a total of 12 x 10^20 protons on target in both neutrino and antineutrino mode running. This allows MINERvA a new level of statistics in neutrino interaction measurements with the ability to measure multi-dimensional differential cross sections. In addition, in order to make the most of this jump in statistics, a new level of precision in fluxprediction has been achieved. We present results from MINERvA's Medium Energy (ME) physics program, including the new kinematic regimes that are now accessible.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The equilibrium of neural firing: A mathematical theory

Inspired by statistical thermodynamics, we presume that neuron system has equilibrium condition with respect to neural firing. We show that, even with dynamically changeable neural connections, it is inevitable for neural firing to evolve to equilibrium. To study the dynamics between neural firing and neural connections, we propose an extended communication system where noisy channel has the tendency towards fixed point, implying that neural connections are always attracted into fixed points such that equilibrium can be reached. The extended communication system and its mathematics could be useful back in thermodynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Does a Free Electron Laser Exhibit Non-Standard Statistics? [Slides and Report]

The originally proposed work under this award sought to develop a theoretical basis for previous experimental observations in free-electron laser (FEL) physics involving certain non-classical effects in the light produced by these devices. A sound and valid theoretical interpretation of these experiments would represent a transformational understanding of free-electron lasers, and of electron-photon interactions in general. The specific objective of the completed work, as described in the attached progress report by Jeongwan Park, was to perform a detailed analysis of an experiment by Chen and Madey (Physical Review Letters; volume 86 number 26, 2001) concerning the purported sub-Poissonian photon statistics in an FEL. Since that published work contradicted FEL theory as presently understood, the purpose of the work under the present subcontract was to obtain a better understanding of the quantum nature of the FEL, to investigate the possibility of theoretical and experimental evidence for the non-standard photon statistics of the FEL, and to critically examine the experimental evidence through a re-evaluation of the data analysis of Chen and Madey. The results of this study showed that there were numerous experimental conditions under which the observed photon statistics could be explained by combining both the photon clustering property and the dead-time effect, and consequently, that the observed photon statistics in the Chen-Madey experiment did not require sub-Poissonian photon statistics for their explanation.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Nonlinear coupling of electromagnetic and electron acoustic waves in multi-species degenerate astrophysical plasma

Nonlinear wave-coupling is studied in a multispecies degenerate astrophysical plasma consisting of two electron species (at different temperatures): a highly degenerate main component plus a smaller classical relativistic flow immersed in a static neutralizing ion background. It is shown that the high frequency electromagnetic waves through their strong nonlinear interactions with the electron-acoustic waves [sustained by a multielectron component (degenerate) plasma surrounding a compact astrophysical object] can scatter to lower frequencies so that the radiation observed faraway will be spectrally shifted downward. It is also shown that, under definite conditions, the electromagnetic waves could settle into stationary solitonic states. It is expected that the effects of such structures may persist as detectable signatures in forms of modulated micropulses in the radiation observed far away from the accreting compact object. Both these effects will advance our abilities to interpret the radiation coming out of the compact objects.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Adding ($\mathcal{α}$,n) Emission to an Existing Subcritical Benchmark Statistical Uncertainty Method

Subcritical measurements often use radiation detectors to infer parameters related to the physics of a measured system. One type of subcritical measurements typically performed are called neutron noise measurements. These types of measurements utilize the fact that prompt neutrons are produced from fission immediately after a fission event and are therefore correlated in time. Subcritical benchmarks require evaluation of the statistical and systematic uncertainties of a measurement. Previous work established methods for determining statistical and systematic uncertainties in subcritical benchmarks. The data were analyzed using the Hage-Cifarelli formalism of the Feynman Variance-to-Mean method. The previous work made an assumption that the ($\mathcal{α}$,n) emission rate was negligible. This assumption was used because the previous work focused on systems with metal Plutonium. This work extends the existing statistical uncertainty method to include ($\mathcal{α}$,n) emissions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Comparing simulated emission from molecular clouds using experimental design

We propose a new approach to comparing simulated observations that enables us to determine the significance of the underlying physical effects. We utilize the methodology of experimental design, a subfield of statistical analysis, to establish a framework for comparing simulated position-position-velocity data cubes to each other. We propose three similarity metrics based on methods described in the literature: principal component analysis, the spectral correlation function, and the Cramer multi-variate two-sample similarity statistic. Using these metrics, we intercompare a suite of mock observational data of molecular clouds generated from magnetohydrodynamic simulations with varying physical conditions. Using this framework, we show that all three metrics are sensitive to changing Mach number and temperature in the simulation sets, but cannot detect changes in magnetic field strength and initial velocity spectrum. We highlight the shortcomings of one-factor-at-a-time designs commonly used in astrophysics and propose fractional factorial designs as a means to rigorously examine the effects of changing physical properties while minimizing the investment of computational resources.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Landau discriminants

Scattering amplitudes in quantum field theories have intricate analytic properties as functions of the energies and momenta of the scattered particles. In perturbation theory, their singularities are governed by a set of nonlinear polynomial equations, known as Landau equations, for each individual Feynman diagram. The singularity locus of the associated Feynman integral is made precise with the notion of the Landau discriminant, which characterizes when the Landau equations admit a solution. In order to compute this discriminant, we present approaches from classical elimination theory, as well as a numerical algorithm based on homotopy continuation. These methods allow us to compute Landau discriminants of various Feynman diagrams up to 3 loops, which were previously out of reach. For instance, the Landau discriminant of the envelope diagram is a reducible surface of degree 45 in the three-dimensional space of kinematic invariants. We investigate geometric properties of the Landau discriminant, such as irreducibility, dimension and degree. In particular, we find simple examples in which the Landau discriminant has codimension greater than one. Furthermore, we describe a numerical procedure for determining which parts of the Landau discriminant lie in the physical regions. In order to study degenerate limits of Landau equations and bounds on the degree of the Landau discriminant, we introduce Landau polytopes and study their facet structure. Finally, we provide an efficient numerical algorithm for the computation of the number of master integrals based on the connection to algebraic statistics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Bayesian model averaging for analysis of lattice field theory results

Statistical modeling is a key component in the extraction of physical results from lattice field theory calculations. Although the general models used are often strongly motivated by physics, many model variations can frequently be considered for the same lattice data. Model averaging, which amounts to a probability-weighted average over all model variations, can incorporate systematic errors associated with model choice without being overly conservative. We discuss the framework of model averaging from the perspective of Bayesian statistics, and give useful formulae and approximations for the particular case of least-squares fitting, commonly used in modeling lattice results. In addition, we frame the common problem of data subset selection (e.g. choice of minimum and maximum time separation for fitting a two-point correlation function) as a model selection problem and study model averaging as a straightforward alternative to manual selection of fit ranges. Numerical examples involving both mock and real lattice data are given.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Physical foundation and consistent formulation of atomic-level fluxes in transport processes

Irving and Kirkwood derived the transport equations from the principles of classical statistical mechanics using the Dirac delta to define local densities. Thereby, formulas for fluxes were obtained in terms of molecular variables. The Irving and Kirkwood formalism has inspired numerous formulations. Many of the later developments, however, considered it more rigorous to replace the Dirac delta with a continuous volume-weighted averaging function and subsequently defined fluxes as a volume density. Although these volume-averaged flux formulas have dominated the literature for decades and are widely implemented in popular molecular dynamics (MD) software, they are a departure from the well-established physical concept of fluxes. We review the historical developments that led to the unified physical concept of fluxes for transport phenomena. We then use MD simulations to show that these popular flux formulas conserve neither momentum nor energy, nor do they produce fluxes that are consistent with their physical definitions. We also use two different approaches to derive fluxes for general many-body potentials. The results of the formulation show that atomistic formulas for fluxes can be fully consistent with the physical definitions of fluxes and conservation laws.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

The cosmological lithium problem revisited

After a brief review of the cosmological lithium problem, we report a few recent attempts to find theoretical solutions by our group at Texas A&M University (Commerce & College Station). We will discuss our studies on the theoretical description of electron screening, the possible existence of parallel universes of dark matter, and the use of non-extensive statistics during the Big Bang nucleosynthesis epoch. Last but not least, we discuss possible solutions within nuclear physics realm. The impact of recent measurements of relevant nuclear reaction cross sections for the Big Bang nucleosynthesis based on indirect methods is also assessed. Although our attempts may not able to explain the observed discrepancies between theory and observations, they suggest theoretical developments that can be useful also for stellar nucleosynthesis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Molecular Dynamics Calculations

The development of thermodynamics and statistical mechanics is very important in the history of physics, and it underlines the difficulty in dealing with systems involving many bodies, even if those bodies are identical. Macroscopic systems of atoms typically contain so many particles that it would be virtually impossible to follow the behavior of all of the particles involved. Therefore, the behavior of a complete system can only be described or predicted in statistical ways. Under a grant to the NASA Lewis Research Center, scientists at the Case Western Reserve University have been examining the use of modern computing techniques that may be able to investigate and find the behavior of complete systems that have a large number of particles by tracking each particle individually. This is the study of molecular dynamics. In contrast to Monte Carlo techniques, which incorporate uncertainty from the outset, molecular dynamics calculations are fully deterministic. Although it is still impossible to track, even on high-speed computers, each particle in a system of a trillion trillion particles, it has been found that such systems can be well simulated by calculating the trajectories of a few thousand particles. Modern computers and efficient computing strategies have been used to calculate the behavior of a few physical systems and are now being employed to study important problems such as supersonic flows in the laboratory and in space. In particular, an animated video (available in mpeg format--4.4 MB) was produced by Dr. M.J. Woo, now a National Research Council fellow at Lewis, and the G-VIS laboratory at Lewis. This video shows the behavior of supersonic shocks produced by pistons in enclosed cylinders by following exactly the behavior of thousands of particles. The major assumptions made were that the particles involved were hard spheres and that all collisions with the walls and with other particles were fully elastic. The animated video was voted one of two winning videos in a competition held at the meeting of the American Physical Society's Division of Fluid Dynamics, held in Atlanta, Georgia, in November 1994. Of great interest was the result that in every shock there were a few high-speed precursor particles racing ahead of the shock, carrying information about its impending arrival. Most recently, Dr. Woo has been applying molecular dynamics techniques to the problem of determining the drag produced by the space station truss structure as it flies through the thin residual atmosphere of low-Earth orbit. This problem is made difficult by the complex structure of the truss and by the extreme supersonic nature of the flow. A fully filled section of the truss has already been examined, and drag predictions have been made. Molecular dynamics techniques promise to make realistic drag calculations possible even for very complex partially filled truss segments flying at arbitrary angles.

Source record↗

Information and Statistics in Nuclear Experiment and Theory (ISNET)

As with all empirical sciences, nuclear physics operates in the virtuous cycle of the scientific method: observations inspire theoretical models; models lead to new predictions; predictions are tested in experiments; experiments lead to new observations; and so on. Evaluating what we are inferring, and how certain we are of it, is key to this process. These requirements, and a general interest in applying novel statistical, mathematical, and computational techniques, led to the formation of a dedicated research community entitled “Information and Statistics in Nuclear Experiment and Theory (ISNET)” (https://isnet-series.github.io/), which now includes more than 300 members. While the community’s interests lean toward nuclear theory, the unifying theme for this group is the inference of knowledge from data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

The effect of surface boundary conditions on the climate generated by a coarse-mesh general circulation model

A hierarchy of experiments was run, starting with an all water planet with zonally symmetric sea surface temperatures, then adding, one at a time, flat continents, mountains, surface physics, and realistic sea surface temperatures. The model was run with the sun fixed at a perpetual January. Ensemble means and standard deviations were computed and the t-test was used to determine the statistical significance of the results. The addition of realistic surface physics does not affect the model climatology to as large as extent as does the addition of mountains. Departures from zonal symmetry of the SST field result in a better simulation of the real atmosphere.

Cohen, C.↗

Exotic rotational correlations in quantum geometry

In this paper, it is argued by extrapolation of general relativity and quantum mechanics that a classical inertial frame corresponds to a statistically defined observable that rotationally fluctuates due to Planck scale indeterminacy. Physical effects of exotic nonlocal rotational correlations on large scale field states are estimated. Their entanglement with the strong interaction vacuum is estimated to produce a universal, statistical centrifugal acceleration that resembles the observed cosmological constant.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

On the dispute between Boltzmann and Gibbs entropy

The validity of the concept of negative temperature has been recently challenged by arguing that the Boltzmann entropy (that allows negative temperatures) is inconsistent from a mathematical and statistical point of view, whereas the Gibbs entropy (that does not admit negative temperatures) provides the correct definition for the microcanonical entropy. Here we prove that the Boltzmann entropy is thermodynamically and mathematically consistent. Analytical results on two systems supporting negative temperatures illustrate the scenario we propose. In addition we numerically study a lattice system to show that negative temperature equilibrium states are accessible and obey standard statistical mechanics prediction.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗