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DOE OSTI2016

TH-CD-207A-07: Prediction of High Dimensional State Subject to Respiratory Motion: A Manifold Learning Approach

Purpose: The development of high dimensional imaging systems (e.g. volumetric MRI, CBCT, photogrammetry systems) in image-guided radiotherapy provides important pathways to the ultimate goal of real-time volumetric/surface motion monitoring. This study aims to develop a prediction method for the high dimensional state subject to respiratory motion. Compared to conventional linear dimension reduction based approaches, our method utilizes manifold learning to construct a descriptive feature submanifold, where more efficient and accurate prediction can be performed. Methods: We developed a prediction framework for high-dimensional state subject to respiratory motion. The proposed method performs dimension reduction in a nonlinear setting to permit more descriptive features compared to its linear counterparts (e.g., classic PCA). Specifically, a kernel PCA is used to construct a proper low-dimensional feature manifold, where low-dimensional prediction is performed. A fixed-point iterative pre-image estimation method is applied subsequently to recover the predicted value in the original state space. We evaluated and compared the proposed method with PCA-based method on 200 level-set surfaces reconstructed from surface point clouds captured by the VisionRT system. The prediction accuracy was evaluated with respect to root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) for both 200ms and 600ms lookahead lengths. Results: The proposed method outperformed PCA-based approach with statistically higher prediction accuracy. In one-dimensional feature subspace, our method achieved mean prediction accuracy of 0.86mm and 0.89mm for 200ms and 600ms lookahead lengths respectively, compared to 0.95mm and 1.04mm from PCA-based method. The paired t-tests further demonstrated the statistical significance of the superiority of our method, with p-values of 6.33e-3 and 5.78e-5, respectively. Conclusion: The proposed approach benefits from the descriptiveness of a nonlinear manifold and the prediction reliability in such low dimensional manifold. The fixed-point iterative approach turns out to work well practically for the pre-image recovery. Our approach is particularly suitable to facilitate managing respiratory motion in image-guide radiotherapy. This work is supported in part by NIH grant R01 CA169102-02.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

At-wavelength characterization of X-ray wavefronts in Bragg diffraction from crystals

The advent of next-generation synchrotron radiation sources and X-ray free-electron lasers calls for high-quality Bragg-diffraction crystal optics to preserve the X-ray beam coherence and wavefront. This requirement brings new challenges in characterizing crystals in Bragg diffraction in terms of Bragg-plane height errors and wavefront phase distortions. Here, a quantitative methodology to characterize crystal optics using a state-of-the-art at-wavelength wavefront sensing technique and statistical analysis is proposed. The method was tested at the 1-BM-B optics testing beamline at the Advanced Photon Source for measuring silicon and diamond crystals in a self-referencing single-crystal mode and an absolute double-crystal mode. The phase error sensitivity of the technique is demonstrated to be at the λ/100 level required by most applications, such as the characterization of diamond crystals for cavity-based X-ray free-electron lasers.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Convergence Rates for Empirical Estimation of Binary Classification Bounds

Bounding the best achievable error probability for binary classification problems is relevant to many applications including machine learning, signal processing, and information theory. Many bounds on the Bayes binary classification error rate depend on information divergences between the pair of class distributions. Recently, the Henze–Penrose (HP) divergence has been proposed for bounding classification error probability. We consider the problem of empirically estimating the HP-divergence from random samples. We derive a bound on the convergence rate for the Friedman–Rafsky (FR) estimator of the HP-divergence, which is related to a multivariate runs statistic for testing between two distributions. The FR estimator is derived from a multicolored Euclidean minimal spanning tree (MST) that spans the merged samples. We obtain a concentration inequality for the Friedman–Rafsky estimator of the Henze–Penrose divergence. We validate our results experimentally and illustrate their application to real datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards optimal sensor placement for inverse problems in spaces of measures

The objective of this work is to quantify the reconstruction error in sparse inverse problems with measures and stochastic noise, motivated by optimal sensor placement. To be useful in this context, the error quantities must be explicit in the sensor configuration and robust with respect to the source, yet relatively easy to compute in practice, compared to a direct evaluation of the error by a large number of samples. In particular, we consider the identification of a measure consisting of an unknown linear combination of point sources from a finite number of measurements contaminated by Gaussian noise. The statistical framework for recovery relies on two main ingredients: first, a convex but non-smooth variational Tikhonov point estimator over the space of Radon measures and, second, a suitable mean-squared error based on its Hellinger–Kantorovich distance to the ground truth. To quantify the error, we employ a non-degenerate source condition as well as careful linearization arguments to derive a computable upper bound. This leads to asymptotically sharp error estimates in expectation that are explicit in the sensor configuration. Thus they can be used to estimate the expected reconstruction error for a given sensor configuration and guide the placement of sensors in sparse inverse problems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-D-BRA-03: Analysis of Systematic Errors with 2D/3D Image Registration for Target Localization and Treatment Delivery in Stereotactic Radiosurgery

Purpose: Determine systematic deviations between 2D/3D and 3D/3D image registrations with six degrees of freedom (6DOF) for various imaging modalities and registration algorithms on the Varian Edge Linac. Methods: The 6DOF systematic errors were assessed by comparing automated 2D/3D (kV/MV vs. CT) with 3D/3D (CBCT vs. CT) image registrations from different imaging pairs, CT slice thicknesses, couch angles, similarity measures, etc., using a Rando head and a pelvic phantom. The 2D/3D image registration accuracy was evaluated at different treatment sites (intra-cranial and extra-cranial) by statistically analyzing 2D/3D pre-treatment verification against 3D/3D localization of 192 Stereotactic Radiosurgery/Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy treatment fractions for 88 patients. Results: The systematic errors of 2D/3D image registration using kV-kV, MV-kV and MV-MV image pairs using 0.8 mm slice thickness CT images were within 0.3 mm and 0.3° for translations and rotations with a 95% confidence interval (CI). No significant difference between 2D/3D and 3D/3D image registrations (P>0.05) was observed for target localization at various CT slice thicknesses ranging from 0.8 to 3 mm. Couch angles (30, 45, 60 degree) did not impact the accuracy of 2D/3D image registration. Using pattern intensity with content image filtering was recommended for 2D/3D image registration to achieve the best accuracy. For the patient study, translational error was within 2 mm and rotational error was within 0.6 degrees in terms of 95% CI for 2D/3D image registration. For intra-cranial sites, means and std. deviations of translational errors were −0.2±0.7, 0.04±0.5, 0.1±0.4 mm for LNG, LAT, VRT directions, respectively. For extra-cranial sites, means and std. deviations of translational errors were - 0.04±1, 0.2±1, 0.1±1 mm for LNG, LAT, VRT directions, respectively. 2D/3D image registration uncertainties for intra-cranial and extra-cranial sites were comparable. Conclusion: The Varian Edge radiosurgery 6DOF-based system, can perform 2D/3D image registration with high accuracy for target localization in image-guided stereotactic radiosurgery. The work was supported by a Research Scholar Grant, RSG-15-137-01-CCE from the American Cancer Society.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cross-Market Price Difference Forecast Using Deep Learning for Electricity Markets

Price forecasting is in the center of decision making in electricity markets. Many researches have been done in forecasting energy prices while little research has been reported on forecasting price difference between day-ahead and realtime markets due to its high volatility, which however plays a critical role in virtual trading. To this end, this paper takes the first attempt to employ novel deep learning architecture with Bidirectional Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) units to forecast the price difference between day-ahead and real-time markets for the same node. The raw data is collected from PJM market, processed and fed into the proposed network. The Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and customized performance metric are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. Case studies show that it outperforms the traditional statistical models like ARIMA, and machine learning models like XGBoost and SVR methods in both RMSE and the capability of forecasting the sign of price difference. Additionally, to cross-market price difference forecast, the proposed approach has the potential to be applied to solve other forecasting problems such as price spread forecast in DA market for Financial Transmission Right (FTR) trading purpose.

DA/RT price difference↗

DOE OSTI2020

SpotSDC: Revealing the Silent Data Corruption Propagation in High-Performance Computing Systems

We report the trend of rapid technology scaling is expected to make the hardware of high-performance computing (HPC) systems more susceptible to computational errors due to random bit flips. Some bit flips may cause a program to crash or have a minimal effect on the output, but others may lead to silent data corruption (SDC), i.e., undetected yet significant output errors. Classical fault injection analysis methods employ uniform sampling of random bit flips during program execution to derive a statistical resiliency profile. However, summarizing such fault injection result with sufficient detail is difficult, and understanding the behavior of the fault-corrupted program is still a challenge. In this article, we introduce SpotSDC, a visualization system to facilitate the analysis of a program's resilience to SDC. SpotSDC provides multiple perspectives at various levels of detail of the impact on the output relative to where in the source code the flipped bit occurs, which bit is flipped, and when during the execution it happens. SpotSDC also enables users to study the code protection and provide new insights to understand the behavior of a fault-injected program. Based on lessons learned, we demonstrate how what we found can improve the fault injection campaign method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2013

ON THE HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE TRIGONOMETRIC PARALLAX OF THE DWARF NOVA SS CYGNI

SS Cygni is one of the brightest dwarf novae (DNe), and one of the best studied prototypes of the cataclysmic variables. Astrometric observations with the Fine Guidance Sensors (FGSs) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), published in 2004, gave an absolute trigonometric parallax of 6.06 {+-} 0.44 mas. However, recent very long baseline interferometry (VLBI), obtained during radio outbursts of SS Cyg, has yielded a significantly larger absolute parallax of 8.80 {+-} 0.12 mas, as well as a large difference in the direction of the proper motion (PM) compared to the HST result. The VLBI distance reduces the implied luminosity of SS Cyg by about a factor of two, giving good agreement with predictions based on accretion-disk theory in order to explain the observed DN outburst behavior. This discrepancy raises the possibility of significant systematic errors in FGS parallaxes and PMs. We have reanalyzed the archival HST/FGS data, including (1) a critical redetermination of the parallaxes of the background astrometric reference stars, (2) updated input values of the reference-star PMs, and (3) correction of the position measurements for color-dependent shifts. Our new analysis yields a PM of SS Cyg that agrees well with the VLBI motion, and an absolute parallax of 8.30 {+-} 0.41 mas, also statistically concordant with the VLBI result at the {approx}1.2 {sigma} level. Our results suggest that HST/FGS parallaxes are free of large systematic errors, when the data are reduced using high-quality input values for the astrometry of the reference stars, and when instrumental signatures are properly removed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2017

An open-access CMIP5 pattern library for temperature and precipitation: Description and methodology

Pattern scaling is used to efficiently emulate general circulation models and explore uncertainty in climate projections under multiple forcing scenarios. Pattern scaling methods assume that local climate changes scale with a global mean temperature increase, allowing for spatial patterns to be generated for multiple models for any future emission scenario. For uncertainty quantification and probabilistic statistical analysis, a library of patterns with descriptive statistics for each file would be beneficial, but such a library does not presently exist. Of the possible techniques used to generate patterns, the two most prominent are the delta and least squared regression methods. We explore the differences and statistical significance between patterns generated by each method and assess performance of the generated patterns across methods and scenarios. Differences in patterns across seasons between methods and epochs were largest in high latitudes (60-90°N/S). Bias and mean errors between modeled and pattern predicted output from the linear regression method were smaller than patterns generated by the delta method. Across scenarios, differences in the linear regression method patterns were more statistically significant, especially at high latitudes. We found that pattern generation methodologies were able to approximate the forced signal of change to within ≤ 0.5°C, but choice of pattern generation methodology for pattern scaling purposes should be informed by user goals and criteria. As a result, this paper describes our library of least squared regression patterns from all CMIP5 models for temperature and precipitation on an annual and sub-annual basis, along with the code used to generate these patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK IV. On end-to-end simulations in CMB analysis — Bayesian versus frequentist statistics

End-to-end simulations play a key role in the analysis of any high-sensitivity cosmic microwave background (CMB) experiment, providing high-fidelity systematic error propagation capabilities that are unmatched by any other means. In this paper, we address an important issue regarding such simulations, namely, how to define the inputs in terms of sky model and instrument parameters. These may either be taken as a constrained realization derived from the data or as a random realization independent from the data. We refer to these as posterior and prior simulations, respectively. We show that the two options lead to significantly different correlation structures, as prior simulations (contrary to posterior simulations) effectively include cosmic variance, but they exclude realization-specific correlations from non-linear degeneracies. Consequently, they quantify fundamentally different types of uncertainties. We argue that as a result, they also have different and complementary scientific uses, even if this dichotomy is not absolute. In particular, posterior simulations are in general more convenient for parameter estimation studies, while prior simulations are generally more convenient for model testing. Before BEYONDPLANCK, most pipelines used a mix of constrained and random inputs and applied the same hybrid simulations for all applications, even though the statistical justification for this is not always evident. BEYONDPLANCK represents the first end-to-end CMB simulation framework that is able to generate both types of simulations and these new capabilities have brought this topic to the forefront. The BEYONDPLANCK posterior simulations and their uses are described extensively in a suite of companion papers. In this work, we consider one important applications of the corresponding prior simulations, namely, code validation. Specifically, we generated a set of one-year LFI 30 GHz prior simulations with known inputs and we used these to validate the core low-level BEYONDPLANCK algorithms dealing with gain estimation, correlated noise estimation, and mapmaking.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2015

Learn-as-you-go acceleration of cosmological parameter estimates

Cosmological analyses can be accelerated by approximating slow calculations using a training set, which is either precomputed or generated dynamically. However, this approach is only safe if the approximations are well understood and controlled. This paper surveys issues associated with the use of machine-learning based emulation strategies for accelerating cosmological parameter estimation. We describe a learn-as-you-go algorithm that is implemented in the Cosmo++ code and (1) trains the emulator while simultaneously estimating posterior probabilities; (2) identifies unreliable estimates, computing the exact numerical likelihoods if necessary; and (3) progressively learns and updates the error model as the calculation progresses. We explicitly describe and model the emulation error and show how this can be propagated into the posterior probabilities. We apply these techniques to the Planck likelihood and the calculation of ΛCDM posterior probabilities. The computation is significantly accelerated without a pre-defined training set and uncertainties in the posterior probabilities are subdominant to statistical fluctuations. We have obtained a speedup factor of 6.5 for Metropolis-Hastings and 3.5 for nested sampling. Finally, we discuss the general requirements for a credible error model and show how to update them on-the-fly.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Initial Atmospheric Transport of Particles

A new version of the Initial Atmospheric Transport (IAT) model has been developed. This report fully characterizes the new model. IAT is designed to model heat release into the atmosphere that contains contaminated particles. The heat release forms a buoyant puff or plume. Buoyancy is quickly dissipated in 10's to 100's of seconds through drag and entrainment of ambient air. The final location of contaminant particles in the atmosphere after dissipation of abnormal heat is an important input to long term transportation codes such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) code. Ultimately the settling of contaminants after long term transport provides a basis for estimating health consequences. In comparison to the old version, the new model includes explicit simulation of particles, newly formulated equations of motion for a rising puff, and a new plume model. The plume model releases many instances of a single puff along a single trajectory in a way that balances energy released over a longer period than would be appropriate for a single puff. The puff model has additions for vorticity, turbulence, virtual mass, drag, and entrainment. The particle model leads to direct interfacing between IAT and the long-term transport code HYSPLIT. Previously, particle locations were given a pattern based on IAT's puff trajectory with no particle simulation. Now, particles are explicitly simulated, and 3-D spatial distributions of particles are output based on final positions. Ballistic particles are thrown outward at high velocity from explosive events and tend to hit the ground before the end of the simulation. Non-ballistic particles tend to get pulled into the rising puff s ring of vorticity with some escaping to ambient conditions as buoyant energy dissipates. A new model verification and validation effort was made for the new plume model. The Wallops Island Solid Rocket Propellant (SRP) fire plume was extracted to a 3-D transient dataset. After calibration, the model performs better than previous single puff attempts. Even so, error levels in the process used to estimate location and ambient weather conditions approach 30%. This leads to the conclusion that unplanned photogrammetry evaluations of the IAT model are useful but not sufficiently accurate to quantify model parameters. Like previous attempts, the vertical motion entrainment parameters come out much too high in comparison to values for other studies in the literature. It is suspected that a new model of shear entrainment would alleviate this problem. Unfortunately, IAT already has more calibration parameters than the data comparisons thus far can resolve with statistical certainty. This underscores the need to verify and validate the IAT model using detailed CFD studies that allow ideal statistical comparison with the IAT model for hundreds of cases. Even so, validation by comparison to carefully planned experiments (i.e. with acceptable error levels) is also necessary because the dynamics of entrainment are at a sub-grid level for CFD. Though better validation and verification are most important, many new enhancements are still envisioned for future IAT development. These include particle rain out due to condensation and agglomeration of water, direct connection to the North American Mesoscale (NAM) weather dataset, dynamic weather conditions, including ambient particle entrainment into the puff, and detrainment at the puff to ambient mixing interface. In general, including detailed aerosol dynamics is the greatest coming challenge which will require an entire new sub-model in IAT. This is very important if contaminant particles change in such a way that they increase or decrease in their potential harm to the environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

A Novel Fast Helical 4D-CT Acquisition Technique to Generate Low-Noise Sorting Artifact–Free Images at User-Selected Breathing Phases

Purpose: To develop a novel 4-dimensional computed tomography (4D-CT) technique that exploits standard fast helical acquisition, a simultaneous breathing surrogate measurement, deformable image registration, and a breathing motion model to remove sorting artifacts. Methods and Materials: Ten patients were imaged under free-breathing conditions 25 successive times in alternating directions with a 64-slice CT scanner using a low-dose fast helical protocol. An abdominal bellows was used as a breathing surrogate. Deformable registration was used to register the first image (defined as the reference image) to the subsequent 24 segmented images. Voxel-specific motion model parameters were determined using a breathing motion model. The tissue locations predicted by the motion model in the 25 images were compared against the deformably registered tissue locations, allowing a model prediction error to be evaluated. A low-noise image was created by averaging the 25 images deformed to the first image geometry, reducing statistical image noise by a factor of 5. The motion model was used to deform the low-noise reference image to any user-selected breathing phase. A voxel-specific correction was applied to correct the Hounsfield units for lung parenchyma density as a function of lung air filling. Results: Images produced using the model at user-selected breathing phases did not suffer from sorting artifacts common to conventional 4D-CT protocols. The mean prediction error across all patients between the breathing motion model predictions and the measured lung tissue positions was determined to be 1.19 ± 0.37 mm. Conclusions: The proposed technique can be used as a clinical 4D-CT technique. It is robust in the presence of irregular breathing and allows the entire imaging dose to contribute to the resulting image quality, providing sorting artifact–free images at a patient dose similar to or less than current 4D-CT techniques.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2014

Particle tracking during Ostwald ripening using time-resolved laboratory X-ray microtomography

Laboratory X-ray microtomography is investigated as a method for obtaining time-resolved images of microstructural coarsening of the semisolid state of Al–5 wt.% Cu samples during Ostwald ripening. Owing to the 3D imaging capability of tomography, this technique uniquely provides access to the growth rates of individual particles, thereby not only allowing a statistical characterization of coarsening—as has long been possible by conventional metallography—but also enabling quantification of the influence of local environment on particle boundary migration. The latter information is crucial to understanding growth kinetics during Ostwald ripening at high volume fractions of the coarsening phase. Automated image processing and segmentation routines were developed to close gaps in the network of particle boundaries and to track individual particles from one annealing step to the next. The particle tracking success rate places an upper bound of only a few percent on the likelihood of segmentation errors for any given particle. The accuracy of particle size trajectories extracted from the time-resolved tomographic reconstructions is correspondingly high. Statistically averaged coarsening data and individual particle growth rates are in excellent agreement with the results of prior experimental studies and with computer simulations of Ostwald ripening. - Highlights: • Ostwald ripening in Al–5 wt.% Cu measured by laboratory X-ray microtomography • Time-resolved measurement of individual particle growth • Automated segmentation routines developed to close gaps in particle boundary network • Particle growth/shrinkage rates deviate from LSW model prediction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Design, Detection, and Countermeasure of Frequency Spectrum Attack and Its Impact on Long Short-Term Memory Load Forecasting and Microgrid Energy Management

This paper introduces a frequency-domain false data injection attack called Frequency Spectrum Attack (FSA) and explores its effects on load forecasting and the energy management system (EMS) in a microgrid. The FSA analyzes time-series signals in the frequency domain to identify patterns in their frequency spectrum. It learns the distribution of dominant frequencies in a dataset of healthy signals. Subsequently, it manipulates the amplitudes of dominant frequencies within this healthy distribution, ensuring a stealthy attack against statistical analysis of the signal spectrum. We evaluated the performance of FSA on LSTM, a state-of-the-art network for load forecasting. The results show that FSA can triple the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of predictions compared to the normal case and increase it by 70% compared to noise injection attacks. Furthermore, FSA indirectly enhances battery utilization in the EMS by 45%. We then proposed a detection method that combines statistical analysis and machine-learning-based classification techniques with features. The model effectively distinguishes FSA from healthy and noisy signals, achieving an accuracy of 98.7% and an F1-score of 98.1% on a load dataset, covering healthy, FSA, and noisy load data. Finally, a countermeasure was introduced based on the statistical analysis of the frequency spectrum of healthy signals to mitigate the impact of FSA. This countermeasure successfully reduces the MAE of the attacked model from 0.135 to 0.053, validating its effectiveness in mitigating FSA.

Nazeri, Amirhossein↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Framework for Optimal Control of Planetary Reentry Trajectories Under Multilevel Uncertainties

We present a novel stochastic optimal control framework that accounts for various types of uncertainties, with application to reentry trajectory planning. The formulation of the optimal trajectory control problem is presented in the context of an indirect method where a functional objective associated with the terminal vehicle speed is to be minimized. Uncertain input parameters in the optimal trajectory control model, including aerodynamic parameters and initial and terminal conditions, are modeled as aleatory random variables, while the statistical parameters of these aleatory distributions are themselves random variables. The parametric and model uncertainties are simultaneously propagated through an extended polynomial chaos expansion (EPCE) formalism. Several metrics are described to evaluate response statistics and presented as insightful tools for robust decision making. Specifically, the response probability density function (PDF) reflecting influence of both epistemic and aleatory uncertainties is obtained. By sampling over the random variables representing model error, an ensemble of response PDFs is generated and the associated failure probability is estimated as a random variable with its own polynomial chaos expansion. Besides, the sensitivity index functions of response PDF with respect to the statistical parameters are evaluated. Coupling parametric and model uncertainties within the EPCE framework leads to a robust and efficient paradigm for multilevel uncertainty propagation and PDF characterization in general optimal control problems.

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2021

Cosmology Intertwined III: $f \sigma_8$ and $S_8$

The standard $\Lambda$ Cold Dark Matter cosmological model provides a wonderful fit to current cosmological data, but a few tensions and anomalies became statistically significant with the latest data analyses. While these anomalies could be due to the presence of systematic errors in the experiments, they could also indicate the need for new physics beyond the standard model. In this Letter of Interest we focus on the tension of the Planck data with weak lensing measurements and redshift surveys, about the value of the matter energy density $\Omega_m$, and the amplitude or rate of the growth of structure ($\sigma_8,f\sigma_8$). We list a few interesting models for solving this tension, and we discuss the importance of trying to fit with a single model a full array of data and not just one parameter at a time.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode load using Markov Chain Model

The aim of this paper is to present the reliability analysis and prediction of mixed mode loading by using a simple two state Markov Chain Model for an automotive crankshaft. The reliability analysis and prediction for any automotive component or structure is important for analyzing and measuring the failure to increase the design life, eliminate or reduce the likelihood of failures and safety risk. The mechanical failures of the crankshaft are due of high bending and torsion stress concentration from high cycle and low rotating bending and torsional stress. The Markov Chain was used to model the two states based on the probability of failure due to bending and torsion stress. In most investigations it revealed that bending stress is much serve than torsional stress, therefore the probability criteria for the bending state would be higher compared to the torsion state. A statistical comparison between the developed Markov Chain Model and field data was done to observe the percentage of error. The reliability analysis and prediction was derived and illustrated from the Markov Chain Model were shown in the Weibull probability and cumulative distribution function, hazard rate and reliability curve and the bathtub curve. It can be concluded that Markov Chain Model has the ability to generate near similar data with minimal percentage of error and for a practical application; the proposed model provides a good accuracy in determining the reliability for the crankshaft under mixed mode loading.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗