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At least 811 records · Page 45

Aryl Diazonium-Assisted Amidoximation of MXene for Boosting Water Stability and Uranyl Sequestration via Electrochemical Sorption

Despite that two-dimensional transition metal carbides and carbonitrides (MXenes) are burgeoning candidates for remediation of environmental pollutants, the construction of robust functionalized MXene nanosheets with a high affinity for target heavy metal ions and radionuclides remains a challenge. Here we report the successful placement of amidoxime chelating groups on Ti 3 C 2 T x MXene surface by diazonium salt grafting. The introduction of amidoxime functional groups significantly enhances the selectivity of Ti 3 C 2 T x nanosheets for uranyl ions and also greatly improves their stability in aqueous solution, enabling efficient, rapid, and recyclable uranium extraction from aqueous solutions containing competitive metal ions. Benefiting from the excellent conductivity of MXenes, the amidoxime functionalized Ti 3 C 2 T x nanosheets show outstanding electrochemical performance such that when loaded on carbon cloth the application of an electric field increases the uranium adsorption capacity from 294 to 626 mg/g, outperforming all organic electrochemical sorption materials reported previously. Finally, the present work provides an effective strategy to functionalize MXene nanosheets with fundamental implications for the design of MXene-based selective electrosorption electrode materials.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

A Distinct Atmospheric Mode for California Precipitation

The hydrologic cycle in California is strongly influenced by wet-season (November–April) precipitation. Here, we demonstrate the existence of an influential mode of North Pacific atmospheric pressure variability that regulates wet-season precipitation variability over both northern and southern California. This mode, named as the “California precipitation mode” (CPM), is statistically distinct from other well-known modes of pressure variability such as the Pacific-North American pattern. In addition to controlling wet-season mean precipitation, positive days of the CPM coincide with up to 90% of the extreme (>99th percentile) precipitation days and 76% of detected atmospheric rivers (ARs) days, while the negative days correspond with 60% of the dry days. CMIP6 models capture the CPM remarkably well, including its statistical separation from the other well-known modes of pressure variability. The models also reproduce the CPM's strong association with California wet-season precipitation, giving confidence in the models’ dynamics relating to regional hydrologic extremes. However, the models also exhibit biases in regional hydrologic extremes. The CPM is a useful way to understand the origins of those biases and select the more credible models for further analysis: Models with unrealistically strong gradients in the CPM pressure pattern generally oversimulate larger wet extremes and produce excessively long dry intervals in the historical period. Thus the hydrologic biases can be traced to the particular aspects of North Pacific atmospheric dynamics.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Assimilation of Multiscale Data into Multifidelity Biogeochemical Models (Final Report)

Quantitative predictions of subsurface processes rely on computational models that capture, with different degrees of fidelity, complex interactions between hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. Molecular- and pore-scale models provide a high-fidelity representation of these processes but are impractical at the field scale. Reduced complexity (e.g., field-scale or data-driven) models sacrifice some degree of fidelity in favor of computational efficiency. Uncertainty and assimilation of data into model predictions, pose a question of model selection: Given a significant difference in computational cost, can a lower-fidelity model be preferable to its higher-fidelity counterpart? Since a predictive model must be computable in reasonable time it has to operate at the field scale, with molecular- and pore-scale data (obtained either from simulations or measurements) determining both the model's structure and parameters. Availability of such multi-resolution data raises a question hitherto undressed in hydrogeology: Can a coarse model dynamically ``learn'' its own structure (e.g., adjust the reaction pathways in its transport module) as more fine-scale data become available during simulations? Our results in multifidelity simulations, data assimilation, and machine learning led us to hypothesize that the answer to these questions is ``yes''. The overarching goal of this project was to confirm this hypothesis by developing scalable, computationally efficient tools for assimilation of data into multiscale models, in which fine-scale data and simulations dynamically inform and autonomously modify coarse-scale models. Our research led to nine manuscripts, three of which have been published and the other six are currently under review.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

No Galaxy Left Behind: Measuring the Transfer Function of the Dark Energy Survey with Balrog

In this dissertation, we describe a calibration and diagnostic framework called Balrog which was used to directly sample the selection and photometric biases of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 (Y3) dataset. We systematically inject onto the single-epoch images of a random 20% subset of the DES footprint an ensemble of nearly 30 million realistic galaxy models derived from DES Deep Field observations. These augmented images are analyzed in parallel with the original data to automatically inherit measurement systematics that are often too difficult to capture with traditional generative models. The resulting object catalog is a Monte Carlo sampling of the DES transfer function and is used as a powerful diagnostic and calibration tool for a variety of DES Y3 science, particularly for the calibration of the photometric redshifts of distant "source" galaxies and magnification biases of nearer "lens" galaxies. The recovered Balrog injections are shown to closely match the photometric property distributions of the fiducial Y3 GOLD catalog, particularly in color, and capture the number density fluctuations from observing conditions of the real data within 1% for a typical galaxy sample. We find that Y3 colors are extremely well calibrated, typically within ~1-8 millimagnitudes, but for a small subset of objects we detect significant magnitude biases correlated with large overestimates of the injected object size due to proximity effects and blending. Finally, we discuss approaches to extend the current methodology to capture more aspects of the transfer function for future analyses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

North Dakota Integrated Carbon Storage Complex Feasibility Study. Final report

In spring 2017, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) initiated an effort to determine the feasibility of developing a commercial-scale CO 2 geologic storage complex able to store 50+ million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in central North Dakota safely, permanently, and economically. The objective was to fulfill the goals of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative and address technical and nontechnical challenges specific to commercial-scale deployment of a CO2 storage project. The findings clearly show that the concept of capturing CO 2 from a lignite-fired electrical generation facility in central North Dakota and safely and permanently storing the CO 2 in the deep subsurface is indeed technically, economically, and socially feasible. This project evaluated two study areas and their respective geologic storage complexes located adjacent to separate coal-fired facilities in North Dakota: the Basin Electric Power Cooperative (BEPC)-owned Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) and the Minnkota Power Cooperative (Minnkota)-owned Milton R. Young Station (MRYS). These locations, one with CO 2 capture in place and an existing CO 2 pipeline, are bolstered by progressive North Dakota pore space ownership and long-term liability laws. These elements and a motivated team created an ideal synergistic scenario for ensuring success of the CarbonSAFE Initiative and promoting North Dakota’s statewide vision for carbon management. The project included drilling two new geologic characterization wells, integrating an existing 3-D seismic survey, creating a geologic model subsequently used for injection simulation, a risk assessment, public outreach, and generating a site development plan based on results. In addition, the performance of select National Risk Assessment Partnership tools was evaluated. The geologic characterization wells were drilled ~5600 feet deep to the Broom Creek Formation; ~350 feet of core was retrieved from each well. The core included the Broom Creek (targeted injection zone) and a portion of the overlying Opeche Shale (seal). The Flemmer-1 well, west of Beulah, North Dakota, yielded 169 feet of sandstone. The BNI-1 well located south of Center, North Dakota, yielded 124 feet of sandstone. In each case, laboratory analysis of the sandstone showed permeability in the 300–1000-mD range, with porosity of 20%–30%. The Flemmer-1 well was sited within the boundaries of an existing 3-D seismic survey. Colocating the well with the seismic survey maximized the relationship between new and legacy data and developed a first-of-its-kind interpretation of the geologic fabric of the Broom Creek. Geologic characterization data were integrated into a 5544-mi 2 geocellular model that encompassed both new wells and stratigraphy from the surface to the Amsden Formation (underlying the Broom Creek). The model was later expanded vertically to include the deeper Black Island–Deadwood interval to examine its potential viability as a storage target. The geocellular model provided the foundation for dynamic simulation of CO 2 into the Broom Creek. Results of the simulation suggest that the Broom Creek could accept the DOE target rate of 2 Mt/yr of CO 2 into as few as two wells. To bracket the expected capture from MRYS, simulations were also investigated for a 4-Mt/yr rate near MRYS. Although more wells are needed (two additional), the Broom Creek still has the storage resource to accept the CO 2 at the increased rate. A risk assessment exercise was conducted to identify and assess technical and nontechnical risks that could prevent potential candidate storage complexes within the study area from serving as commercial storage sites. The assessment identified and evaluated six technical risk categories: 1) CO 2 injectivity, 2) storage capacity, 3) lateral migration of CO 2 , 4) lateral pressure propagation, 5) vertical migration of CO 2 or formation brine, and 6) induced seismicity. Following two rounds of analysis and scoring, no risks were determined to preclude continued efforts to develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in central North Dakota. The risk assessment results will be used to guide future site characterization, modeling and simulation, and monitoring activities. A specific nontechnical strategic risk based on challenges that may be realized in amalgamation of pore space resulted in vertically expanding the geologic model to incorporate the potential for stacked storage in multiple saline reservoirs. By including the Black Island–Deadwood interval (the basal sedimentary reservoir in this region), the amalgamated areal extent could be reduced by as much as 45%. Working with a smaller geographic area reduces risks and costs associated with monitoring and pore space leasing. An economic evaluation incorporating capture; transport (<5 mi); Class VI wells; permitting; and monitoring, verification, and accounting suggests implementing commercial-scale CCUS is economically attractive if the federal tax benefits of 45Q are included. This is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of CO 2 capture and geologic storage at MRYS through its Project Tundra initiative, indicating that there is a business case for CCUS in central North Dakota. Currently, North Dakota is the only state with underground injection control (UIC) Class VI primacy. Built into the North Dakota Century Code is a series of regulatory requirements that guide the process to obtain a Class VI CO 2 storage facility permit. As part of this project, a site development plan was compiled to assure compliance with North Dakota’s requirements to permit a commercial-scale CO 2 storage operation and includes a prospective time line encompassing a general breakdown of activities. In total, an estimated 30 months would be needed to execute the necessary steps to attain a North Dakota CO 2 storage facility permit. Outreach was an integral part of the project and encompassed any project-related activity that had contact or exposure beyond the project team. The goals of outreach were to foster an environment from which stakeholders could make informed decisions about the project and gauge community receptiveness to a CCUS project. A consistent set of messages and outreach products were developed in conjunction with an outreach advisory board that integrated project partners and team members. To gauge public acceptability of geologically storing CO 2 , 5611 households in the project area were invited to participate in an online survey. The survey results indicate that the public attitude regarding CCUS is neutral to positive, with strong sentiment that CO 2 capture and storage may be an approach to maintain the economic vitality of the region. To achieve project objectives, critical support in the form of financial backing, engineering evaluations, site access, outreach collaboration, operations data, risk assessment/evaluation, and software access was provided by BEPC, the North Dakota Industrial Commission Lignite Research Council, ALLETE Clean Energy, BNI Energy, North American Coal Corporation, Minnkota, Prairie Public Broadcasting, Computer Modelling Group Ltd., and Schlumberger.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

A transfer learning approach to energy-efficient control of small and medium-sized commercial buildings

Model-free reinforcement learning (RL) provides a data-driven and adaptive approach to optimize building energy use while satisfying occupant comfort. This powerful tool does not need any prior knowledge about the environment and system it is optimizing and can adapt its policy based on the changes in captures. Like any other data-driven tool, it faces high training costs due to the extensive agent-environment interactions required to capture long-term building dynamics and user comfort. Transfer learning, particularly policy distillation, offers a promising way to accelerate training by leveraging pretrained RL agents in different building and system types. Here, this study investigates online student distillation, in which the student model updates its neural network weights using outputs from teacher models. The work introduces a student distillation strategy designed for efficient knowledge transfer, along with a teacher selection method that ensures high-quality guidance. The approach is validated using a highly calibrated whole building energy model for a small/medium commercial building test facility. Results show substantial reductions in training time and data requirements while surpassing the performance of ASHRAE Guideline 36, an advanced rule-based control strategy. The distilled RL model required 45% less data and achieved 20% higher cumulative rewards than a state-of-the-art RL model, with faster convergence and lower energy consumption. These outcomes demonstrate that effective transfer learning enables a scalable and data-efficient energy management solution for commercial buildings.

ASHRAE guideline 36↗

Reconstructing phase-resolved hysteresis loops from first-order reversal curves

The first order reversal curve (FORC) method is a magnetometry based technique used to capture nanoscale magnetic phase separation and interactions with macroscopic measurements using minor hysteresis loop analysis. This makes the FORC technique a powerful tool in the analysis of complex systems which cannot be effectively probed using localized techniques. However, recovering quantitative details about the identified phases which can be compared to traditionally measured metrics remains an enigmatic challenge. We demonstrate a technique to reconstruct phase-resolved magnetic hysteresis loops by selectively integrating the measured FORC distribution. From these minor loops, the traditional metrics—including the coercivity and saturation field, and the remanent and saturation magnetization—can be determined. In order to perform this analysis, special consideration must be paid to the accurate quantitative management of the so-called reversible features. This technique is demonstrated on three representative materials systems, high anisotropy FeCuPt thin-films, Fe nanodots, and SmCo/Fe exchange spring magnet films, and shows excellent agreement with the direct measured major loop, as well as the phase separated loops.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Purification and Concentration of 99 Mo from a UREX raffinate

The medical isotope 99m Tc ( t ½ = 6.0 h) accounts for over 80% of isotopes used in diagnostic nuclear medicine today and is normally derived from its transient equilibrium parent 99 Mo ( t ½ = 66 h). To reduce U.S. dependence on 99 Mo derived from HEU by foreign suppliers, the NNSA/M3 program—under the American Medical Isotope Production Act—has been tasked with facilitating the work of domestic 99 Mo suppliers that do not utilize HEU. Superconducting electron linear accelerators with high-Z converter targets can generate bremsstrahlung photons and neutron fluxes that can induce photonuclear reactions and LEU fission. After sufficient production intervals, targets can be rotated out and processed while another batch is irradiated. The process flow chemistry is shown in Figure 1. The irradiated U 3 O 8 targets are retrieved and dissolved in HNO 3 ; the volatile fission products are expelled and captured during this step. The HNO 3 liquor bearing the uranyl, fission and activation products is injected into the UREX suite of liquid-liquid extraction banks. The uranyl is partitioned in typical fashion using tri-$\textit{n}$-butyl phosphate (TBP) in a hydrocarbon diluent. The raffinate—comprising mainly 99 Mo and fission products—is then injected into the MoLLE (Molybdenum Liquid-Liquid Extraction) flowsheet, where the Mo is selectively extracted by an organophosphorous acid extractant such as di-(2-ethylhexyl phosphoric acid) (HDEHP). Trace amounts of Nb, Zr, Np, I, and Te are co-extracted. The Mo is stripped using acetohydroxamic acid (AHA) and fed onto an anion exchange column. Following a series of hydroxide, HCl, and oxalic acid wash steps, the Mo can be recovered in NaOH/NaCl. A manuscript describing this process chemistry in more detail was recently published.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Measuring the Survey Transfer Function with Balrog

Abstract We describe an updated calibration and diagnostic framework, Balrog , used to directly sample the selection and photometric biases of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 (Y3) data set. We systematically inject onto the single-epoch images of a random 20% subset of the DES footprint an ensemble of nearly 30 million realistic galaxy models derived from DES Deep Field observations. These augmented images are analyzed in parallel with the original data to automatically inherit measurement systematics that are often too difficult to capture with generative models. The resulting object catalog is a Monte Carlo sampling of the DES transfer function and is used as a powerful diagnostic and calibration tool for a variety of DES Y3 science, particularly for the calibration of the photometric redshifts of distant “source” galaxies and magnification biases of nearer “lens” galaxies. The recovered Balrog injections are shown to closely match the photometric property distributions of the Y3 GOLD catalog, particularly in color, and capture the number density fluctuations from observing conditions of the real data within 1% for a typical galaxy sample. We find that Y3 colors are extremely well calibrated, typically within ∼1–8 mmag, but for a small subset of objects, we detect significant magnitude biases correlated with large overestimates of the injected object size due to proximity effects and blending. We discuss approaches to extend the current methodology to capture more aspects of the transfer function and reach full coverage of the survey footprint for future analyses.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Roadmap to Iodine and Mercury Abatement Materials Selection in Nuclear Waste Processing Off-Gas Streams

This work provides a guide for candidate mercury (Hg) and iodine-129 (129I) abatement material identification, screening, evaluation, technical gap identification, and bench-scale testing prioritization while also conceptualizing a materials deployment roadmap for implementation of new materials in the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Low-Activity Waste (LAW) Facility at Hanford in Richland, Washington, and elsewhere in the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex for similar applications. The study was prompted by the need to replace the Kombisorb BAT-37 due to uncertainties in Hg and 129I capture performance and future availability for use in the WTP LAW Facility secondary off-gas system, specifically the Carbon Adsorber units. However, replacement of this material could also mitigate two other issues with Kombisorb BAT-37 (and its successor BAT II 37): (1) fire safety risk due to exothermic heat generated by adsorption reactions between the carbon material and Hg and (2) the risk of low retention of 129I in glass and subsequent downstream impacts on secondary liquid waste treatment at the Effluent Treatment Facility.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Effective Field Theory for jet substructure in heavy ion collisions

I develop an Effective Field Theory (EFT) framework to compute jet substructure observables for heavy ion collision experiments. As an example, I consider dijet events that accompany the formation of a weakly coupled long lived Quark Gluon Plasma (QGP) medium in a heavy ion collision and look at an observable insensitive to jet selection bias: the simultaneous measurement of jet mass along with the transverse momentum imbalance between the jets that are groomed to remove soft radiation. Treating the jet as an open quantum system, I write down a factorization formula within the SCET (Soft Collinear Effective Theory) framework in the forward scattering regime. The physics of the medium is encoded in a universal soft field correlator while the jet-medium interaction is captured by a medium induced jet function. The factorization formula leads to a Lindblad type equation for the evolution of the reduced density matrix of the jet in the Markovian approximation. The solution for this equation allows a resummation of large logarithms that arise due to the final state measurements imposed while simultaneously summing over multiple incoherent interactions of the jet with the medium.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Superstructure Optimization of Waste Plastic Pyrolysis, Integrating Thermal, Catalytic, and Plasma Technologies with Machine Learning

Global plastic waste generation exceeds 430 million tonnes per year, yet fewer than 9% are recycled in the United States. Pyrolysis offers a chemical recycling route at scale, but existing techno-economic and life cycle assessments fix product yields to single pure polymers, producing economic and environmental outputs that break down when the feed composition changes. Here, we present a superstructure optimization framework that addresses this by embedding a composition-aware random forest yield predictor, trained on 566 pyrolysis experiments, within a full-scale process simulation. Product distributions update automatically as feed allocation shifts across four reactor chemistries: conventional thermal, catalytic (HZSM-5), thermal oxo-degradation, and nonequilibrium CO2 plasma. The optimal superstructure achieves minimum selling prices of −0.56 to −0.76/kg feed and global warming potentials of −0.276 to −0.322 kg CO2-eq/kg feed across four commodity price scenarios, confirming profitable, carbon-negative operation without tipping fees. Carbon abatement costs of $\$$0.46 to $\$$1.25/kg CO2-eq are competitive with direct air capture. Sensitivity analysis shows that the catalytic-plasma split fraction is the single largest driver of both economic and climate performance, while hydrocracking allocation in the wax upgrading stage is emission-neutral across the full variable range. Mixed plastic waste streams, evaluated as composition-variable feedstocks rather than pure resins, are profitable and carbon-negative across realistic market conditions. These results give a quantitative basis for reactor selection, circular economy investment, and policy design targeting chemical recycling on a large scale.

Life cycle assessment↗

Neutrino constraints on inelastic dark matter captured in the Sun

Abstract The flux of neutrinos from annihilation of gravitationally captured dark matter in the Sun has significant constraints from direct-detection experiments. However, these constraints are relaxed for inelastic dark matter as inelastic dark matter interactions generate less energetic nuclear recoils compared to elastic dark matter interactions. In this paper, we explore the possibility for large volume underground neutrino experiments to detect the neutrino flux from captured inelastic dark matter in the Sun. The neutrino spectrum has two components: a mono-energetic “spike” from pion and kaon decays at rest and a broad-spectrum “shoulder” from prompt primary meson decays. We focus on detecting the shoulder neutrinos from annihilation of hadrophilic inelastic dark matter with masses in the range 4–100 GeV and the mass splittings in up to 300 keV. We determine the event selection criterion for DUNE to identify GeV-scale muon neutrinos and anti-neutrinos originating from hadrophilic dark matter annihilation in the Sun, and forecast the sensitivity from contained events. We also map the current bounds from Super-Kamiokande and IceCube on elastic dark matter, as well as the projected limits from Hyper-Kamiokande, to the parameter space of inelastic dark matter. We find that there is a region of parameter space that these neutrino experiments are more sensitive to than the direct-detection experiments. For dark matter annihilation to heavy-quarks, the projected sensitivity of DUNE is weaker than current (future) Super (Hyper) Kamiokande experiments. However, for the light-quark channel, only the spike is observable and DUNE will be the most sensitive experiment.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Dynamic Simulation Modeling and Control of a Desiccant Assisted Direct-expansion Air Handling Unit

Desirable built environments demand simultaneous regulation of thermal comfort and indoor air quality (IAQ) with energy-efficient operation of heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HV AC) systems, which involves controls of temperature, humidity and airborne contaminants simultaneously. This paper presents the efforts of dynamic modeling and initial development control strategy for a desiccant-assisted multi-functional air handling unit (AHU) coupled with a direct-expansion rooftop unit (RTU) system, which aims to achieve multiple functions for indoor environment conditioning with energy efficient control. The RTU-AHU system includes a desiccant wheel for dehumidification and a conceptual direct air capture (DAC) filtering device for CO2 regulation. A Modelica-based dynamic model is developed for this conceptual system, and a simple decentralized control strategy is designed, which combines a differential-enthalpy based AHU return-air ratio control, a demand-controlled ventilation, and supply-air temperature humidity control via the RTU and DW controls. The proposed control method is evaluated with the Modelica simulation model for a selected set of scenarios

Pan, Chao↗

Direct Air Capture-Compatible Azolate and Amino Acid Ionic Liquids for Electrochemical CO 2 Reduction to CO on a Silver Cathode

Direct air capture (DAC) compatible ionic liquids (ILs) are attractive for integrating CO 2 capture and conversion due to their high CO 2 solubility at low partial pressures, tunable chemisorption mechanisms, low volatility, and wide electrochemical windows. However, very few ILs have high CO 2 uptake at DAC conditions (420 ppm CO 2 ), and even fewer have been evaluated for chemical compatibility and mechanistic continuity for combined capture and electrochemical CO 2 reduction (eCO 2 RR). We demonstrate that two representative DAC-capable ILs, [P 4444 ][Val] (amino acid-based) and [P 66614 ][5-Me-Imd] (azolate-based), exhibit favorable electrochemical reduction behavior. CO and H 2 were the dominant gas-phase products by GC, while 1 H and 13 C NMR confirmed negligible liquid-phase HCOOH. Chronoamperometry at moderate applied potentials (−2.0 to −2.5 V vs Ag/AgCl) in a two-compartment H-cell with a Ag coated carbon paper as the working electrode yielded steady-state current densities of ∼10 mA cm −2 with CO FE of 96% for [P 4444 ][Val] and 95% for [P 66614 ][5-Me-Imd], highlighting the role of viscosity and chemically absorbed CO 2 -IL species to provide highly selective CO formation while suppressing H 2 evolution.

amino acid ionic liquid↗

Uncertainty quantification of mass models using ensemble Bayesian model averaging

Developments in the description of the masses of atomic nuclei have led to various nuclear mass models that provide predictions for masses across the whole chart of nuclides. These mass models play an important role in understanding the synthesis of heavy elements in the rapid neutron capture ( r ) process. However, it is still a challenging task to estimate the size of uncertainty associated with the predictions of each mass model. In this work, a method called ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) is introduced to quantify the uncertainty of one-neutron separation energies (S 1 n ) which are directly relevant in the calculations of r -process observables. Here, this Bayesian method provides a natural way to perform model averaging, selection, and uncertainty quantification, by combining the mass models as a mixture of normal distributions whose parameters are optimized against the experimental data, employing the Markov chain Monte Carlo method using the no-u-turn sampler. The EBMA model optimized with all the experimental S 1 n from the AME2003 nuclides are shown to provide reliable uncertainty estimates when tested with the new data in the AME2020.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Prediction of DIII-D Pedestal Structure from Externally Controllable Parameters

The sharp increase of pressure at the edge of a high confinement mode (H-mode) plasma, the pedestal, strongly impacts overall plasma performance. Predicting the pedestal is a necessity to control and optimize tokamak operations. An experimental data-driven machine learning (ML) approach is presented that predicts the pedestal heights and widths of electron density (ne) and electron temperature (Te) profiles as well as the separatrix ne from externally controllable parameters such as the plasma shape, heating method and power, and gas puff rate and integrated gas puff. The OMFIT framework was used with DIII-D data to efficiently, robustly, and automatically build a database of pedestal parameters to train machine learning models. Database creation was enabled by the search engine tool for DIII-D data, TokSearch, which parallelizes data fetching, enabling fast searches through basic signals of thousands of DIII-D shots and selection of relevant time intervals. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) separated the database into three clusters that represent classes of plasma shapes that are regularly used in DIII-D. The most important parameters for setting the pedestal structure were plasma current (Ip), toroidal magnetic field (Bφ), neutral beam heating power (PNBI) and shaping quantities. The Deep Jointly Informed Neural Networks (DJINN) algorithm was applied to identify suitable neural network (NN) architectures that appropriately capture the features of the pedestal database. Separate NNs were implemented for each pedestal parameter, and ensembling methods were used to improve the prediction accuracy and allowed estimation of the prediction uncertainty. The pedestal predictions of the test dataset lie within the measurement uncertainties of the pedestal parameters. The NN outperformed simple Linear Regression (LR) analysis, indicating non-linear dependencies in the pedestal structure. The presented achievements illustrate a promising path for future research, using feature extraction to infer experimental trends and thereby improve pedestal models as well as deploying NN for a fast pedestal prediction in DIII-D scenario development.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗