SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Scenario planning”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 811 records · Page 45

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2005

Remote Sensing Characterization of the Urban Landscape for Improvement of Air Quality Modeling

The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models, particularly the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban growth projections as improved inputs to the meteorology component of the CMAQ model focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, in moderating ground-level ozone and air temperature, compared to "business as usual" simulations in which heat island mitigation strategies are not applied. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low densityhburban development as compared with USGS 1 km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for fiture scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the state Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect fbture air quality.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Urban Landscape Characterization Using Remote Sensing Data For Input into Air Quality Modeling

The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models that are used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, particularly for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of air quality models to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well these models predict ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban growth projections as improved inputs to meteorological and air quality models focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data have been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1 km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission. This allows the State Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Remote Sensing and Spatial Growth Modeling Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 80 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Directly aligned with the expansion of cities is urban sprawl. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Strategies that can be directly or indirectly implemented to help remediate air quality problems in cities and that can be accepted by political decision makers and the general public are now being explored to help bring down air pollutants and improve air quality. The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models, particularly the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to the meteorology component of the CMAQ model focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how ozone and air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data have been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the State Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta s growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rationale decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Spatial Growth Modeling and High Resolution Remote Sensing Data Coupled with Air Quality Modeling to Assess the Impact of Atlanta, Georgia on the Local and Regional Environment

The growth of cities, both in population and areal extent, appears as an inexorable process. Urbanization continues at a rapid rate, and it is estimated that by the year 2025, 60 percent of the world s population will live in cities. Urban expansion has profound impacts on a host of biophysical, environmental, and atmospheric processes within an urban ecosystems perspective. A reduction in air quality over cities is a major result of these impacts. Because of its complexity, the urban landscape is not adequately captured in air quality models such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban spatial growth modeling (SGM) projections as improved inputs to a meteorological/air quality modeling system focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include business as usual and smart growth scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, which in turn, are used to model how air temperature can potentially be moderated as impacts on elevating ground-level ozone, as opposed to not utilizing heat island mitigation strategies. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the CMAQ modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS lkm land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the Georgia Environmental Protection Division to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality. The coupled SGM and air quality modeling approach provides insight on what the impacts of Atlanta s growth will be on the local and regional environment and exists as a mechanism that can be used by policy makers to make rational decisions on urban growth and sustainability for the metropolitan area in the future.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

The OSIRIS-Rex Asteroid Sample Return: Mission Operations Design

The OSIRIS-REx mission employs a methodical, phased approach to ensure success in meeting the missions science requirements. OSIRIS-REx launches in September 2016, with a backup launch period occurring one year later. Sampling occurs in 2019. The departure burn from Bennu occurs in March 2021. On September 24, 2023, the SRC lands at the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). Stardust heritage procedures are followed to transport the SRC to Johnson Space Center, where the samples are removed and delivered to the OSIRIS-REx curation facility. After a six-month preliminary examination period the mission will produce a catalog of the returned sample, allowing the worldwide community to request samples for detailed analysis.Traveling and returning a sample from an Asteroid that has not been explored before requires unique operations consideration. The Design Reference Mission (DRM) ties together space craft, instrument and operations scenarios. The project implemented lessons learned from other small body missions: APLNEAR, JPLDAWN and ESARosetta. The key lesson learned was expected the unexpected and implement planning tools early in the lifecycle. In preparation to PDR, the project changed the asteroid arrival date, to arrive one year earlier and provided additional time margin. STK is used for Mission Design and STKScheduler for instrument coverage analysis.

0↗

NASA NTRS2012

Modular Growth NTR Space Transportation System for Future NASA Human Lunar, NEA and Mars Exploration Missions

The nuclear thermal rocket (NTR) is a proven, high thrust propulsion technology that has twice the specific impulse (I(sub sp) approx.900 s) of today's best chemical rockets. During the Rover and NERVA (Nuclear Engine for Rocket Vehicle Applications) programs, twenty rocket reactors were designed, built and ground tested. These tests demonstrated: (1) a wide range of thrust; (2) high temperature carbide-based nuclear fuel; (3) sustained engine operation; (4) accumulated lifetime; and (5) restart capability - everything required for affordable human missions beyond LEO. In NASA's recent Mars Design Reference Architecture (DRA) 5.0 study, the NTR was selected as the preferred propulsion option because of its proven technology, higher performance, lower IMLEO, versatile vehicle design, and growth potential. Furthermore, the NTR requires no large technology scale-ups since the smallest engine tested during the Rover program - the 25 klb(sub f) "Pewee" engine is sufficient for human Mars missions when used in a clustered engine configuration. The "Copernicus" crewed Mars transfer vehicle developed for DRA 5.0 was an expendable design sized for fast-conjunction, long surface stay Mars missions. It therefore has significant propellant capacity allowing a reusable "1-year" round trip human mission to a large, high energy near Earth asteroid (NEA) like Apophis in 2028. Using a "split mission" approach, Copernicus and its two key elements - a common propulsion stage and integrated "saddle truss" and LH2 drop tank assembly - configured as an Earth Return Vehicle / propellant tanker, can also support a short round trip (approx.18 month) / short orbital stay (60 days) Mars reconnaissance mission in the early 2030's before a landing is attempted. The same short stay orbital mission can be performed with an "all-up" vehicle by adding an "in-line" LH2 tank to Copernicus to supply the extra propellant needed for this higher energy, opposition-class mission. To transition to a reusable Mars architecture, Copernicus' saddle truss / drop tank assembly is replaced by an in-line tank and "star truss" assembly with paired modular drop tanks to further increase the vehicle's propellant capacity. Shorter "1-way" transit time fast-conjunction Mars missions are another possibility using this vehicle configuration but, as with reusability, increased launch mass is required. "Scaled down" versions of Copernicus (sized to a SLS lift capability of approx.70 t - 100 t) can be developed initially allowing reusable lunar cargo delivery and crewed landing missions, easy NEA missions (e.g., 2000 SG344 also in 2028) or an expendable mission to Apophis. Mission scenario descriptions, key vehicle features and operational characteristics are provided along with a brief discussion of NASA's current activities and its "pre-decisional" plans for future NTR development.

Borowski, Stanley K.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Practical Operational Readiness Gambits: Operations Training Simulations for the Curiosity Rover

The Mars Science Laboratory team had been puttingin effort to make a Training Venue to allow for parallel shadowtactical operations for trainees to actively work alongside theprime tactical operations personnel without affecting operations,since staffing constraints and shortened operations timelineswere straining the tactical process in supporting operationstrainees in the traditional way. The COVID- 19 Pandemic presentedfurther challenges in continuing on-console training forMSL operations trainees. The MSL operations team switched tofully remote operations, thus hampering the direct mentorshipa trainee would normally receive while on site at JPL. TheMars 2020 training team had developed a concept for roveroperations training simulations based on Johnson Space Center’sextensive simulations training program for astronauts andflight controllers. The MSL team borrowed this idea, and implementedthese training simulations which are called PracticalOperational Readiness Gambits (PORGs). The PORGs so farhave focused on the Science Planner and Rover Planner roles,which are two crucial roles in tactical operations that engagein key interactions throughout a shift. PORGs are based onactual sol scenarios that have occurred on Mars and follow thetactical operations process and timeline as closely as possible.However, unlike an operations shift, PORGs can slow down orpause to allow for more mentoring time. PORGs can focus onparticular skills to test the trainees on their understanding ofa concept. PORGs increase in complexity with each scenario toease the trainees into more typical tactical operations workloads.As more trainees join the MSL operations team, more roles arebeing incorporated into PORGs. There are plans to incorporatecertified operations personnel into PORGs to practice anomalyresponse situations. PORGs have become an essential part of theMSL operations training program and will continue even afterthe return to on-site operations at JPL.

Gajeway, Jocelyn↗

DOE OSTI2026

Illinois Storage Corridor, CarbonSAFE Phase III: UIC Class VI Permitting Plan

The Illinois Storage Corridor (ISC) project evaluated two distinct sites to determine the feasibility of commercial-scale CO₂ storage at each. The project leveraged the region's exceptional geological characteristics, particularly the well-characterized Cambro-Ordovician Storage Complex, to enable permanent geological storage of more than 50 million tonnes of CO₂ over 30 years. The two storage sites are located at One Earth Energy (OEE) facility in northcentral Illinois and Prairie State Generating Company (PSGC) in southcentral Illinois. Once operational, these facilities will combine to capture and store more than 6.5 million tonnes of CO₂ per year, positioning the ISC among the largest carbon storage regions globally. Preliminary homogeneous dynamic modeling based on regional and site-specific reservoir characteristics indicates promising injection capabilities at both locations. For the OEE site, modeling predicts a maximum allowable injection rate of 3.7 MTPA, with a baseline scenario of 1.7 MTPA over 30 years producing a CO₂ plume radius of 1.4 miles at end of injection. For the PSGC site, incorporating recent well data, modeling indicates a single-well maximum injection rate of 2.1 MTPA, with a plume radius of 4.2 miles at end of injection for the 60 MT over 30 years scenario. The primary objective of this CarbonSAFE Phase III project is to develop and submit Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) permit applications to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 5. The permitting plan outlines comprehensive site characterization, Area of Review delineation, monitoring programs, well construction designs, financial responsibility provisions, and post-injection site care procedures necessary to demonstrate safe, permanent CO₂ storage protective of underground sources of drinking water. Three UIC Class VI permit applications for the OEE site were submitted to EPA in October 2022 and are progressing through technical review, with final permit decision projected by June 2026. Through five rounds of Requests for Additional Information and responses, the applications have been refined to address computational modeling, area of review delineation, well integrity, monitoring protocols, and financial assurance requirements. For the PSGC site, finalized characterization and permitting documentation was delivered directly to the facility in July 2023 due to business constraints precluding formal federal regulatory submission. This comprehensive permitting effort builds upon extensive prior subsurface evaluations and demonstration projects that have confirmed the feasibility of widespread commercial-scale carbon storage in the region.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2023

Internal consistency and diversity scenario development: A comparative framework to evaluate energy model scenarios

Energy modeling frameworks and scenario analysis help us explore the potential impact of our actions and uncertainties in future energy systems. Despite their importance, there is no systematic procedure for evaluating the scenario development process. In a literature review, we identify two core elements of the scenario development process: internal consistency and diversity which are oftentimes missing from scenarios. Here, to address this gap, we create the Internal consistency and Diversity Scenario Development (IDSD) comparative framework which aims to assess the feasibility and diversity of scenarios for a given energy model. With this framework, we review commonly used energy models and demonstrate our framework on their scenarios. The IDSD comparative framework can serve several purposes absent from previous scenario development work by aiding energy modelers and report writers in crafting high-quality scenarios. First, the IDSD is a reflective tool which can improve the quality of the scenario development process, enabling a comparative assessment of energy models and scenarios. Second, the IDSD can provide guidance to modeling frameworks with existing scenarios and those still in development; this feedback will enable modelers to improve the development and the communication of the limitations of their scenarios. Third, this study has highlighted areas for improvement in the scenario development of some commonly used energy model frameworks. Finally, there is a complete lack of explanation regarding the stakeholder selection process. Addressing these identified items could increase opportunities for advanced energy technology uptake and improve our options for achieving a more resilient energy system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Electrification Futures Study: Methodological Approaches for Assessing Long-Term Power System Impacts of End-Use Electrification

By its nature, electrification enhances the coupling between the electric sector and end-use sectors. Assessing the impacts of electrification requires both an examination of the complex interactions between sectors and a broader assessment of multiple parts of the energy system. The Electrification Futures Study (EFS) uses several complementary modeling and analysis tools to analyze the impacts of electrification on the U.S. energy system. In particular, the EFS relies on an overarching scenario analysis approach, but through the use of separate modeling approaches designed to assess various electricity demand- and supply-side futures. The primary model employed to generate the supply-side scenarios is the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which is a capacity expansion model for the U.S. electricity system through 2050. Traditionally, the model has been primarily exercised in scenario analysis that implicitly assumed limited electrification. Because of this assumption, resulting future load profiles are approximated by historical ones, load growth is driven primarily by population and economic growth only, and changes in direct end-use natural gas consumption do not effect natural gas costs for electricity generation. In this report, we (1) reflect the potential for resource sharing between regions given these changes in demand, (2) represent how changes in natural gas consumption in end-use sectors could impact the economics of natural gas-fired generation, and (3) document a new model representation of demand-side flexibility used for the EFS. These improvements to ReEDS are employed for the EFS supply-wide analysis, which is summarized in a companion EFS report titled Electrification Futures Study: Scenarios of Power System Evolution and Infrastructure Development for the United States (Murphy et al. 2019). The data and methods documented in this report could also be adapted for other models with similar scope and limitations as ReEDS, and these data and methods could be used to assess future electric system scenarios.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optimal Gas-Electric Energy System Decarbonization Planning

As energy utilities implement climate change mitigation policies, system planners require strategies for achieving affordable emissions reductions. Coordinated planning of electric power and natural gas systems will allow synergistic investments to address cross-sector operational constraints, competing uses for net-zero emissions fuels, and shifts in energy demands across energy carriers. In this study, we develop a novel optimization program that finds the cost-minimizing mix of infrastructure expansion or reduction across gas and electric systems to satisfy sector-specific emissions constraints. Alongside energy supply resources, our framework allows for central-planning of end-use equipment stocks to allow switching between gas and electric appliances upon failure or premature replacement. The proposed model is used to simulate case study scenarios for a benchmark 24-pipe gas network coupled to a 24-node power system test network. We find that electrification of greater than 80% of core gas demands is a component of the least-cost solution for modeled energy systems. Despite this substitution, the gas system is maintained to service difficult-to-electrify customers and to deliver net-zero emissions gas to electricity generators in times of peak electricity demand. Restricting electrification of gas appliances increases reliance on power- to-gas technologies and increases annual costs by 15% in 2040. Neglecting constraints on pipeline blending of hydrogen can produce a misleading result that relies on hydrogen blend fractions of greater than 50%. In all cases, we find the average costs of delivered gas increase nearly 5-fold across the decarbonization transition, highlighting the importance of future work investigating cost-allocation strategies for ensuring an equitable energy transition.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Global biomass supply modeling for long-run management of the climate system

Bioenergy is projected to have a prominent, valuable, and maybe essential, role in climate management. However, there is significant variation in projected bioenergy deployment results, as well as concerns about the potential environmental and social implications of supplying biomass. Bioenergy deployment projections are market equilibrium solutions from integrated modeling, yet little is known about the underlying modeling of the supply of biomass as a feedstock for energy use in these modeling frameworks. We undertake a novel diagnostic analysis with ten global models to elucidate, compare, and assess how biomass is supplied within the models used to inform long-run climate management. With experiments that isolate and reveal biomass supply modeling behavior and characteristics (costs, emissions, land use, market effects), we learn about biomass supply tendencies and differences. The insights provide a new level of modeling transparency and understanding of estimated global biomass supplies that informs evaluation of the potential for bioenergy in managing the climate and interpretation of integrated modeling. For each model, we characterize the potential distributions of global biomass supply across regions and feedstock types for increasing levels of quantity supplied, as well as some of the potential societal externalities of supplying biomass. We also evaluate the biomass supply implications of managing these externalities. Finally, we interpret biomass market results from integrated modeling in terms of our new understanding of biomass supply. Overall, we find little consensus between models on where biomass could be cost-effectively produced and the implications. We also reveal model specific biomass supply narratives, with results providing new insights into integrated modeling bioenergy outcomes and differences. The analysis finds that many integrated models are considering and managing emissions and land use externalities of supplying biomass and estimating that environmental and societal trade-offs in the form of land emissions, land conversion, and higher agricultural prices are cost-effective, and to some degree a reality of using biomass, to address climate change.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2024

A valuation framework for customers impacted by extreme temperature-related outages

Extreme temperature outages can lead to not just economic losses but also various non-energy impacts (NEI), such as increased mortality rates, property damage, and reduced productivity, due to significant degradation of indoor operating conditions caused by service disruptions. However, existing resilience assessment approaches lack specificity for extreme temperature conditions. They often overlook temperature-related mortality and neglect the customer characteristics and grid response in the calculation, despite the significant influence of these factors on NEI-related economic losses. This paper aims to address these gaps by introducing a comprehensive framework to estimate the impact of resilience enhancement not only on the direct economic losses incurred by customers but also on potential NEI, including mortality and the value of statistical life during extreme temperature-related outages. The proposed resilience valuation integrates customer characteristics and grid response variables based on a scalable grid simulation environment. This study adopts a holistic approach to quantify customer-oriented economic impacts, utilizing probabilistic loss scenarios that incorporate health-related factors and damage/loss models as a function of exposure for valuation. The proposed methodology is demonstrated through comparative resilient outage planning, using grid response models emulating a Texas weather zone during the 2021 winter storm Uri. The case study results show that enhanced outage planning with hardened infrastructure can improve the system resilience and thereby reduce the relative risk of mortality by 16% and save the total costs related to non-energy impacts by 74%. In conclusion, these findings underscore the efficacy of the framework by assessing the financial implications of each case, providing valuable insights for decision-makers and stakeholders involved in extreme-weather related resilience planning for risk management and mitigation strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling Electric Vehicle Charging Load Using Origin-Destination Data

The accelerating adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) poses challenges to the power grid, necessitating precise representation of mobility patterns for effective infrastructure upgrades. Traditional simulation-based charging demand estimation faces limitations in generating trip chains reflective of actual travel patterns without complex network modeling. Hence, an innovative agent-based trip chain generation model is introduced to overcome these challenges. Drawing from the National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the NextGen NHTS origin-destination add-on data for Clarke County, Georgia, this study proposes a simulation method capturing both temporal and spatial mobility patterns without relying on extensive network topology data. The resulting trip chains predict EV charging load at the Census Block Group level, validated with a 1.03 correlation to actual trip counts, affirming their reflective accuracy. Two charging scenarios, residential-only and charging-everywhere, reveal distinct demand profiles. The charging-everywhere scenario aligns closely with the trip profile, while the residential-only scenario exhibits an afternoon peak slightly surpassing the former. This study contributes a data-driven charging demand estimation methodology, offering critical insights for grid resiliency planning amid the evolving landscape of EV adoption.

Pan, Melrose↗

DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of divertor heat flux width for ITER pre-fusion power operation using BOUT++ transport code

Prediction of divertor heat flux width is performed for the first and the second pre-fusion power operation (PFPO) phases specified in the new ITER research plan using BOUT++ transport code (Li et al 2018 Comput. Phys. Commun.228 69–82). Here the initial plasma profiles inside the separatrix are taken from CORSICA scenario studies. Transport coefficients in transport code are calculated by inverting the plasma profiles inside the separatrix and are assumed to be constants in the scrape-off-layer. An anomalous thermal diffusivity scan is performed with E × B and magnetic drifts. The results in two scenarios identifying two distinct regimes: a drift-dominant regime when diffusivity is smaller than the respective critical thermal diffusivity χ c and a turbulence-dominant regime when diffusivity is larger than it. The Goldston heuristic drift model and the ITPA multi-machine experimental scaling yield a lower limit of the width λ q . From transport simulations, we obtain the critical thermal diffusivity χ c = 0.5 m 2 s –1 for the PFPO-1 scenario with toroidal magnetic field B = 1.77 T and plasma current I p = 5 MA, and χ c = 0.3 m 2 s –1 for the PFPO-2 scenario with toroidal magnetic field B = 2.65 T and plasma current I p = 7.5 MA. Separatrix temperature and collisionality also have a significant impact on the heat flux width in the drift-dominant regime. The investigation clearly yields a scaling for critical thermal diffusivity ${\chi }_{\text{c}}\propto {A}^{1/2}/(Z{\left(1+Z\right)}^{\frac{1}{2}}{B}_{\text{p}}^{2})$ using ITER scenarios with fixed safety factor q 95 , major radius R, aspect ratio R/a, and the separatrix temperature T sep , and establishes the connection with CFETR and C-Mod discharges. This scaling implies that for a given tokamak device with q 95 , R, R/a, and T sep fixed, a reduction of poloidal magnetic field by a factor of 3 leads to a 9 times higher critical value of thermal diffusivity χ c , possibly yielding a transition from turbulence- to drift-dominant regime.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

The role of hydrogen as long-duration energy storage and as an international energy carrier for electricity sector decarbonization

With countries and economies around the globe increasingly relying on non-dispatchable variable renewable energy (VRE), the need for effective energy storage and international carriers of low-carbon energy has intensified. This study delves into hydrogen's prospective, multifaceted contribution to decarbonizing the electricity sector, with emphasis on its utilization as a scalable technology for long-duration energy storage and as an international energy carrier. Using Japan as a case study, based on its ambitious national hydrogen strategy and plans to import liquefied hydrogen as a low-carbon fuel source, we employ advanced models encompassing capacity expansion and hourly dispatch. We explore diverse policy scenarios to unravel the timing, quantity, and operational intricacies of hydrogen deployment within a power system. Our findings highlight the essential role of hydrogen in providing a reliable power supply by balancing mismatches in VRE generation and load over several weeks and months and reducing the costs of achieving a zero-emission power system. The study recommends prioritizing domestically produced hydrogen, leveraging renewables for cost reduction, and strategically employing imported hydrogen as a risk hedge against potential spikes in battery storage and renewable energy costs. Furthermore, the strategic incorporation of hydrogen mitigates system costs and enhances energy self-sufficiency, informing policy design and investment strategies aligned with the dynamic global energy landscape.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2022

A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector

Abstract. Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62 well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Effects of Foam Thermal Protection System on the Damage Tolerance Characteristics of Composite Sandwich Structures for Launch Vehicles

For any structure composed of laminated composite materials, impact damage is one of the greatest risks and therefore most widely tested responses. Typically, impact damage testing and analysis assumes that a solid object comes into contact with the bare surface of the laminate (the outer ply). However, most launch vehicle structures will have a thermal protection system (TPS) covering the structure for the majority of its life. Thus, the impact response of the material with the TPS covering is the impact scenario of interest. In this study, laminates representative of the composite interstage structure for the Ares I launch vehicle were impact tested with and without the planned TPS covering, which consists of polyurethane foam. Response variables examined include maximum load of impact, damage size as detected by nondestructive evaluation techniques, and damage morphology and compression after impact strength. Results show that there is little difference between TPS covered and bare specimens, except the residual strength data is higher for TPS covered specimens.

Nettles, A. T.↗