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NASA NTRS2009

Multi-Mission Suitability of the NASA Ames Modular Common Bus

The obvious advantages of small spacecraft - their lower cost structure and the rapid development schedule - have enabled a large number of missions in the past. However, most of these missions have been focused on Earth observation from low Earth orbits. In 2006, the Small Spacecraft Division at the NASA Ames Research Center began the development of the Modular Common Bus, a spacecraft capable of delivering scientifically and technically useful payloads to a variety of destinations within 0.1 AU around the Earth. The core technologies used in the Common Bus design are a composite structure with body-mounted solar cells, an integrated avionics unit, and a high performance bipropellant propulsion system. Due to its modular approach, the Common Bus can be adapted to fit specific mission needs while still using a standardized and qualified set of components. Additionally a number of low cost launch vehicles are supported, resulting in overall mission costs of around $150M including the launch vehicle but excluding the science payloads. This significant reduction in cost and the shorter development time would enable NASA to conduct more frequent exploration missions within its budget and timeframe constraints, compared to the status quo. In this paper the suitability of the Common Spacecraft Bus for four different exploration scenarios is analyzed. These scenarios include a lunar orbiter, a lunar lander, a mission to a Sun-Earth Libration Point, and a rendezvous mission to a Near Earth Object. For each scenario, a preliminary design reference mission is developed and key design parameters for the spacecraft are determined.

Tietz, Sascha↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Flexible Path for Human and Robotic Space Exploration

During the summer of 2009, a flexible path scenario for human and robotic space exploration was developed that enables frequent, measured, and publicly notable human exploration of space beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO). The formulation of this scenario was in support of the Exploration Beyond LEO subcommittee of the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee that was commissioned by President Obama. Exploration mission sequences that allow humans to visit a wide number of inner solar system destinations were investigated. The scope of destinations included the Earth-Moon and Earth-Sun Lagrange points, near-Earth objects (NEOs), the Moon, and Mars and its moons. The missions examined assumed the use of Constellation Program elements along with existing launch vehicles and proposed augmentations. Additionally, robotic missions were envisioned as complements to human exploration through precursor missions, as crew emplaced scientific investigations, and as sample gathering assistants to the human crews. The focus of the flexible path approach was to gain ever-increasing operational experience through human exploration missions ranging from a few weeks to several years in duration, beginning in deep space beyond LEO and evolving to landings on the Moon and eventually Mars.

Korsmeyer, David J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Galileo System Design for Orbital Operations

In April 1991, Galileo's X-band high gain antenna failed to deploy. An alternate approach which utilizes the spacecraft's S-band low gain antenna was conceived and is in development. This approach will enable the accomplishment of at least 70 percent of Galileo's original scientific objectives. The short development period dictates that the spacecraft system design, the ground data system design, and the operational system scenarios and procedures necessary to conduct the mission be developed concurrently, and places a premium on validating the system designs as early as possible. This paper presents an overview of the Galileo Mission, briefly describes the changes required to implement the orbital phase of the Galileo Mission, and describes the functional model of the end to end system which was developed to support the systems design effort.

Galileo↗

DOE OSTI2022

Large-scale parametric modeling of spent nuclear fuel dynamics in the 30 cm package drop scenario

Packages used to transport spent nuclear fuel (SNF) are required by the U.S. Code of Federal Regulations 10 CFR 71.71 to demonstrate satisfactory performance during a drop scenario. While the CFR is meant to ensure safe package function, it does not evaluate survival of the SNF within. The U.S. Department of Energy Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology program is working on closing the knowledge gap related to the response of SNF to external mechanical loads, including the hypothetical 30 cm package drop scenario in the CFR. In support of this effort, LS-DYNA finite element simulations were developed by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to model generic drop scenarios at both the package and fuel assembly level. The models were validated against one-third scale package and full scale fuel assembly drop test data and were exercised to predict fuel cladding strains in a narrow range of model configurations. This work describes a large-scale parametric study conducted by PNNL using the previously developed and validated PWR finite element model, with the addition of a new generic BWR assembly model. The motivation for the parametric study was to characterize the broad range of SNF responses in the 30 cm package drop scenario. This was accomplished by varying the drop orientation, fuel assembly type (17x17 PWR and 10x10 BWR), burnup, cladding temperature, spacer grid buckling load, package mass, impact limiter stiffness, and mechanical gap conditions within the basket. A MATLAB framework was developed to automate LS-DYNA model generation and execution on PNNL institutional computing resources. In total, over 2000 simulations were performed. For each simulation, the SNF response was quantified in terms of permanent grid deformation, fuel rod contact pressure, and strains within the fuel rods, guide tubes, and water rods. The results provide valuable insight into the range of responses that could be reasonably expected from SNF in the hypothetical drop scenario, as well as the sensitivity to each input parameter. The results of this parametric study are a key component of the testing and modeling strategy the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology program is using to close the external loads knowledge gap.

Kadooka, Kevin↗

NASA NTRS1992

Fast track lunar NTR systems assessment for the First Lunar Outpost and its evolvability to Mars

The objectives of the 'fast track' lunar Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) analysis are to quantify necessary engine/stage characteristics to perform NASA's 'First Lunar Outpost' scenario and to assess the potential for evolution to Mars mission applications. By developing NTR/stage technologies for use in NASA's 'First Lunar Outpost' scenario, NASA will make a major down payment on the key components needed for the follow-on Mars Space Transportation System. A faster, cheaper approach to overall lunar/Mars exploration is expected.

Borowski, Stanley K.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Overview of the EUROfusion Tokamak Exploitation programme in support of ITER and DEMO

Within the 9th European Framework programme, since 2021 EUROfusion is operating five tokamaks under the auspices of a single Task Force called ‘Tokamak Exploitation’. The goal is to benefit from the complementary capabilities of each machine in a coordinated way and help in developing a scientific output scalable to future largre machines. The programme of this Task Force ensures that ASDEX Upgrade, MAST-U, TCV, WEST and JET (since 2022) work together to achieve the objectives of Missions 1 and 2 of the EUROfusion Roadmap: i) demonstrate plasma scenarios that increase the success margin of ITER and satisfy the requirements of DEMO and, ii) demonstrate an integrated approach that can handle the large power leaving ITER and DEMO plasmas. The Tokamak Exploitation task force has therefore organized experiments on these two missions with the goal to strengthen the physics and operational basis for the ITER baseline scenario and for exploiting the recent plasma exhaust enhancements in all four devices (PEX: Plasma EXhaust) for exploring the solution for handling heat and particle exhaust in ITER and develop the conceptual solutions for DEMO. The ITER Baseline scenario has been developed in a similar way in ASDEX Upgrade, TCV and JET. Key risks for ITER such as disruptions and run-aways have been also investigated in TCV, ASDEX Upgrade and JET. Experiments have explored successfully different divertor configurations (standard, super-X, snowflakes) in MAST-U and TCV and studied tungsten melting in WEST and ASDEX Upgrade. The input from the smaller devices to JET has also been proven successful to set-up novel control schemes on disruption avoidance and detachment.

ASDEX upgrade↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adaptive Dynamic Digital Twin for Test Scenario Generation

Vehicle testing has been an important part in the development of both highly automated vehicles (HAV) and advanced driving assistant systems (ADAS). Obtaining a good representation of the Vehicle Under Test (VUT) is crucial for test scenario library generation (TSLG). Current vehicle testing methods often involve calibrating car-following models using vehicle trajectory data to create static representations that cannot be dynamically updated. For instance, when multiple vehicle trajectories are collected, it is difficult to automatically determine whether a new trajectory improves the model's representativeness or degrades its accuracy. In this paper, we introduce a dynamically updated digital twin modeling framework featuring an adaptive mechanism that evaluates new trajectory data. This mechanism can decide whether to incorporate newly collected data into the current model or create a separate digital twin model when the trajectory significantly differs from prior data. Vehicle location, speed, and acceleration extracted from the newly collected trajectory data are used to support the dynamic update decision. By integrating this digital twin model into the test library generation process, we demonstrate its ability to assist in generating test libraries while effectively handling newly collected data.

Chen, Hanlin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000165087715)↗

DOE OSTI2023

Laboratory testing methods to evaluate the reliability of occupancy sensors for commercial building applications

The energy performance of commercial buildings is greatly influenced by occupants which are highly variable and among the most unpredictable components of a building's operation. While most building control systems use fixed, predetermined occupancy schedules, these fixed occupancy levels can be quite different from actual occupancy. This can cause unnecessary energy consumption, particularly from heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) and lighting systems which are responsible for approximately 60% of commercial buildings' energy use. The use of occupancy counting sensor systems integrated with building management system controls is one method that can be used to improve the energy-consuming performance of buildings. However, there is no standardized universal methodology and metrics to evaluate their reliability. The aim of this research is to develop a uniform evaluation methodology to assess the reliability of occupancy counting sensor systems in a controlled laboratory environment. The developed testing methodology includes both “typical” scenarios representing the occupancy scenarios of a typical commercial building, and “failure” testing scenarios which represent a range of potential scenarios that may impact a sensor system's reliability. These methods were then implemented in a case study to evaluate the performance of two novel occupancy counting sensor systems (i.e., door-centric, and camera-based). Results suggest that typical testing results can be used to compare the overall performance of the occupancy counting sensor systems; however, failure testing is also important to understand the weaknesses of the sensor system in order to select the suitable one for the intended use of the commercial building. In addition, the proposed methodology includes a modified confusion matrix which enables the ability to identify if failures are caused by over or under counting occupants and to what extent this occurs over the testing period.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cooperation or Rivalry? Impact of alternative development pathways on India's long-term electricity generation and associated water demands

The world has witnessed a significant shift in the last decade in the way countries interact with each other. A cooperation based international paradigm is being challenged by countries engaging in rivalry with each other in the name of their national interests. What developmental pathway the world charts in the future is going to be path defining for global energy and emissions use. India, expected to play a critical role in the emissions mitigation debate, would contribute to and would be impacted by these pathways. In India specific literature, however, little attention has been paid to development pathways related uncertainties and their impact on energy futures. We seek to address this gap by modelling India's electricity futures and associated water demands under different development pathways. Our analysis shows that alternative development pathways would have significantly different implications for the energy access, electricity generation mix, associated water withdrawals, and carbon dioxide emissions in India. We conclude by arguing that energy, emissions and water policies should be conceived with an explicit understanding of uncertainties related to potential development pathways that the world and India can chart.

India, Electricity-Water Nexus, Development Pathwa↗

DOE OSTI2022

Recurrent neural networks for short-term and long-term prediction of geothermal reservoirs

Accurate prediction of geothermal reservoir responses to alternative energy production scenarios is critical for optimizing the development of the underlying resources. While the conventional physics-based models offer a comprehensive prediction tool, data-driven models provide an efficient alternative to build fit-for-purpose predictive models by extracting and using the statistical patterns in the collected data to make predictions. The recurrent neural network (RNN) is a data-driven model that is commonly applied to predict time series sequences. This paper presents a variant of RNN that also utilizes the efficiency of convolutional neural networks (CNN) for the prediction of energy production from geothermal reservoirs. Specifically, a CNN–RNN architecture is developed that takes historical well controls as input (features) and their corresponding production response data as output (labels) to learn an input-output mapping that can predict the future well production responses/performance for any given future well control inputs. The model is paired with a labeling scheme to handle real field disturbances that create data gaps. In addition to the model structure, we introduce a thorough workflow for applying the model, which includes data pre-processing, feature selection, as well as different training strategies for short-term and long-term prediction. Finally, the performance and accuracy of the model are evaluated by applying it to multiple datasets, including a field reservoir model.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Selecting representative geological realizations to model subsurface CO 2 storage under uncertainty

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is one of the quickest and most effective solutions for reducing carbon emissions. The majority of subsurface storage occurs in saline aquifers, for which geological information is lacking which in turn results in geological uncertainty. To evaluate uncertainty in CO 2 injection projections, the use of multiple geological realizations (GRs) has been practiced very commonly. In this approach, hundreds or thousands of high-resolution GRs is used that quickly becomes computationally expensive. This issue can be addressed with representative geological realizations (RGRs) that preserve the uncertainty domain of the ensemble GRs. Here, in this study, we propose the use of unsupervised machine learning (UML) frameworks, including dissimilarity measurement, dimensionality reduction, clustering and sampling algorithms ta select a predetermined number of RGRs. We compare the simulation outputs of the RGR sets and the ensemble using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test to select the best UML. The UML frameworks and their associated selection processes are evaluated using a saline aquifer with a single CO 2 injection well and 200 GRs with varying uncertain petrophysical characteristics. The best UML framework is selected to use only 5% of the GRs while maintaining the uncertainty domain of the ensemble GRs. In addition, the best UML framework is tested using a saline aquifer with three CO 2 injection wells and varied GRs. The results show that our proposed UML framework can be used to choose RGRs, capturing the whole uncertainty domain. Our approach leads to a significant reduction in the computational cost associated with scenario testing, decision-making, and development planning for CO 2 storage sites under geological uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Analysis of synergies in converting underground storage sites: Natural gas to hydrogen with co-located CO2 storage

This study examines the untapped potential of synergistically converting underground natural gas storage (UGS) into underground hydrogen storage (UHS) with co-located CO2 storage. Current approaches to subsurface storage technology (SST) development often prioritise single-use scenarios, overlooking the benefits of integrating multiple technologies. We investigate converting UGS assets into UHS through gradual cushion-gas injection over multiple years, rather than injecting all cushion gas in the first year, and include on-site CO2 storage to offset site emissions. Mechanistic modelling shows this gradual transition reduces the Levelised Cost of Storage (LCOS) of H2 by 1.2-13.1% while retaining energy output within 3% of the current status quo. We also show that combined UHS and CO2 storage hubs can reduce the LCOS of CO2 by 45-77% for only a 3-10% increase in hydrogen LCOS relative to the status quo. This analysis framework may help future-proof SST sites and support a resilient, economically beneficial energy transition.

Mouli-Castillo, Julien↗

DOE OSTI2025

Weather and climate extremes in a changing Arctic

Weather and climate extremes are increasingly occurring in the Arctic. Here, in this Review, we evaluate historical and projected changes in rare Arctic extremes across the atmosphere, cryosphere and ocean and elucidate their driving mechanisms. Clear shifts occur in mean and extreme distributions after ~2000. For instance, pre-2000 to post-2000 observational probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 20% for atmospheric heat waves, 76.7% for Atlantic layer warm events, 83.5% for Arctic sea ice loss and 62.9% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt extent — in many cases, low probability, rare extreme events in the early period become the norm in the latter period. These observed changes can be explained using a ‘pushing and triggering’ concept, representing interplay between external forcing and internal variability: long-term warming destabilizes the climate system and ‘pushes’ it to a new state, allowing subsequent variability associated with large-scale atmosphere–ocean–ice interactions and synoptic systems to ‘trigger’ extreme events over different timescales. Ongoing anthropogenic warming is expected to further increase the frequency and magnitude of extremes, such that simulated probabilities of 1.5 standard deviation events increase by 72.6% for atmospheric heat waves, 68.7% for Atlantic layer warm events and 93.3% for Greenland Ice Sheet melt rate between historic (1984–2014) and future (2069–2099) periods under a very high emission scenario. Future research should prioritize the development of physically based metrics, enhance high-resolution observation and modelling capabilities and improve understanding of multiscale Arctic climate drivers.

atmospheric dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2021

A model investigation of the impact of lower hybrid wave scattering angle on current drive profile in EAST and Alcator C-Mod

Lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) is beneficial for developing a steady-state operation scenario in a tokamak. This paper conducts a modeling investigation to identify an optimum rotation angle of the initial lower hybrid perpendicular (to the background magnetic field $\overrightarrow{B}$) wavevector for best matching the experimental RF current profile. It is hypothesized that central RF power deposition widely observed in the present-day LHCD experiments arises from wave scattering by turbulence. In a standard model without considering such interactions, the predicted power deposition profile is generally broad with off-axis peaking, not in agreement with experimental observations. A heuristic approach is adopted by introducing a spectral broadening mechanism by modifying the initial orientation of the perpendicular wavevector. The ray-tracing/Fokker–Planck solver GENRAY/CQL3D is utilized within the python-based π-scope framework. A focus is given to identify the perpendicular wavenumber orientation angle with respect to the magnetic surface normal vector at the initial ray location. Our modeling study shows that rotating the perpendicular wavevector in such a way as to increase the initial poloidal component is effective in reproducing the centrally peaked current profile observed in normal shear plasmas on both EAST and C-Mod. These waves can readily be absorbed to the central plasma, which reduces the sensitivity of the power deposition profile to a slight change of the plasma condition. The same approach is also found to help broaden the off-axis power deposition profile in a reverse-shear EAST plasma, leading to a better agreement with the experiment. The results presented here suggest that spectral modification arising from edge density fluctuations in a tokamak may need to be considered in understanding wave propagation and absorption. A further experimental and theoretical/modeling study is vital as a reverse approach is adopted in this study. Finally, our work suggests that mitigation or control measures are critical for parasitic effects occurring on the first pass in a reactor regime.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

First-principles study of the low-temperature charge density wave phase in the quasi-one-dimensional Weyl chiral compound ( TaSe 4 ) 2 I

Using ab initio density functional theory, we study herein the lattice phase transition of quasi-one-dimensional (TaSe 4 ) 2 I. In the undistorted state, the strongly anisotropic semimetal band structure presents two nonequivalent Weyl points. In previous efforts, two possible Ta-tetramerization patterns were proposed to be associated with the low-temperature structure. Our phonon calculations indicate that the orthorhombic F222 CDW-I phase is the most likely ground state for this quasi-one-dimensional system. In addition, the monoclinic C2 CDW-II phase may also be stable according to the phonon dispersion spectrum. Since these two phases have very similar energies in our density functional theory calculations, both these Ta-tetramerization distortions likely compete or coexist at low temperatures. The semimetal-to-insulator transition is induced by a Fermi-surface-driven instability that supports the Peierls scenario, which affects the Weyl physics developed above T CDW . Furthermore, the spin-orbit coupling generates Rashba-like band splittings in the insulating charge density wave phases.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Modeling and Harmonic Stability of MMC-HVDC With Passive Circulating Current Filters

A modular multilevel converter (MMC) is an emerging converter technology widely used in wind power applications using high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission, and it has been largely investigated in medium-voltage solar harvesting as well as electric motor drives. Different from studies dealing with active circulating current control loops, this paper focuses on impedance modeling and harmonic stability studies for MMCs with passive circulating current filters (PCCFs). A power stage circuit including a PCCF is transformed and remodeled to obtain small-signal formulations. This transformation leads to additional high-order matrix computing complexity due to the added impedance subnetwork matrix from the PCCF as well as relevant crossed-frequency impacts. To simplify the computational burden, the proposed model aims to solve one arm equation instead of all six MMC arm equations. To achieve this result, additional challenges occur when the MMC is connected to a renewable energy source instead of the grid voltage, where low-level zero-sequence components might exist in the neutral point of three phases, especially in the case of no integrated advanced modular voltage balancing control, which prevents computational simplification. To overcome this challenge, further impedance matrix adjustments are conducted in this paper to theoretically suppress the impact of zero-sequence harmonics when obtaining small-signal impedance, taking into account the frequency coupling effect. Finally, simulations are carried out to validate the developed impedance model under different operating scenarios. Harmonic stability case studies of MMCs with PCCFs connected to renewable energy current sources are also presented, where frequency-domain stability analyses based on Bode diagrams are compared to time-domain simulation waveforms and FFTs, which validate the effectiveness of the proposed impedance model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

A TCN-Based Hybrid Forecasting Framework for Hours-Ahead Utility-Scale PV Forecasting

This paper presents a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) based hybrid PV forecasting framework for enhancing hours-ahead utility-scale PV forecasting. The hybrid framework consists of two forecasting models: a physics-based trend forecasting (TF) model and a data-driven fluctuation forecasting (FF) model. Three TCNs are integrated in the framework for: i) blending the inputs from different Numerical Weather Prediction sources for the TF model to achieve superior performance on forecasting hourly PV profiles, ii) capturing spatial-temporal correlations between detector sites and the target site in the FF model to achieve more accurate forecast of intra- hour PV power drops, and iii) reconciling TF and FF results to obtain coherent hours-ahead PV forecast with both hourly trends and intra-hour fluctuations well preserved. To automatically identify the most contributive neighboring sites for forming a detector network, a scenario-based correlation analysis method is developed, which significantly improves the capability of the FF model on capturing large power fluctuations caused by cloud movements. Here, the framework is developed, tested, and validated using actual PV data collected from 95 PV farms in North Carolina. Simulation results show that the performance of 6 hours ahead PV power forecasting is improved by 20% - 30% compared with state-of-the-art methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

MSR Salt Spill Accident Testing Using Eutectic NaCl-UCl 3

Assessing the potential consequences of identified accident scenarios is an essential part of the licensing process for a new nuclear reactor and is achieved by using accident progression models. A likely accident scenario that will be evaluated by developers of molten salt reactors (MSRs) is a spill of radionuclide-bearing fuel salt onto the reactor containment floor (i.e., a salt spill accident). Models to determine the consequences of a molten salt spill accident need to be parameterized and validated using experimental data, but little experimental effort has been dedicated to fill these data gaps to date. Specifically, data is needed to enable model development for individual processes (e.g., spreading, heat transfer, corrosion, radionuclide vaporization, and aerosol generation) that quantifies the sensitivities towards the initial conditions of the spill, the ambient environment, and the features of the containment. In addition, integrated experiments that simulate salt spill accidents will need to be conducted to provide insight into coupled processes and data for model validation, but these experiments will require the use of proven methods to quantify the processes under evaluation.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗