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At least 811 records · Page 45

Stochastic stellar wind models - Evolved stars

Observational, semiempirical, and theoretical results are presented for individual cool giants and supergiants which show that stochastic stellar wind flows are an extremely important feature in these stars. It is shown that the status of the existing theoretical models is very uncertain, due to the fact that appropriate models must simultaneously take into account a broad variety of strongly coupled physical processes. The potentially important physical processes include global oscillation modes; convection; magnetic fields; the generation, propagation, and interaction of stochastic waves; three-dimensional radiative transfer effects; time-dependent hydrogen ionization; thermal bifurcation and instabilities; and nonequilibrium chemistry, particularly the formation and destruction of molecules and dust.

Cuntz, Manfred↗

State Estimation for Distribution Networks with Asynchronous Sensors Using Stochastic Descent: Preprint

This paper investigates the problem of state estimation for distribution networks with asynchronous sensors comprising of a mix of smart meters and phasor measurement units (PMUs) with multiple sampling and reporting rates. We consider two independent scenarios of state estimation and tracking, with either voltages or currents as states. With these two sets, we investigate estimation under (a) full data, assuming all measurements are available and (b) limited data, where an online algorithmic approach is adopted to estimate the possibly time-varying states by processing measurements as and when available. The proposed algorithm, inspired by the classical Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) approach updates the states based on the previous estimate and the newly available measurements. Finally, we demonstrate the estimation and tracking efficacy through numerical simulations on the IEEE-37 test network, while also highlighting how estimation with currents as states leads to faster convergence.

asynchronous sensors↗

Dynamic microbial assembly processes correspond to soil fertility in sustainable paddy agroecosystems

1. Microorganisms underpin the sustainability of agroecosystems, but we have a poor understanding of how the assembly processes that govern microbial community structure interact through time to maintain soil fertility. 2. Ancient rice paddies have a history of cultivation spanning hundreds or thousands of years and provide an ideal opportunity to explore relationships between community assembly processes and long-term agroecosystem sustainability. We used statistical null models to evaluate temporal patterns of bacterial community assembly processes across rice cultivation years and their associations with increases in soil fertility in paddy agroecosystems. 3. We found that stochasticity was a persistent force structuring paddy soil microbial communities, putatively due to frequent flooding that facilities dispersal. However, determinism gradually increased over centuries of agriculture and corresponded to increases in soil fertility. Accordingly, multifunctionality, calculated using enzymes catalyzing key soil functions in carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous and sulfur cycling significantly increased along rice cultivation years. We therefore propose that balanced assembly processes preserve a diverse array of traits that can dominate under various circumstances (stochasticity) while allowing for traits relevant to soil fertility to be selected for by soil fertility (determinism), thus supporting multifunctionality that underlies sustainable agroecosystems. 4. In total, our results highlight that knowledge on temporal microbial assembly processes, community composition, and ecological function in context of soil fertility is key to understanding ecological mechanisms maintaining agroecosystems sustainability.

Liu, Wenjing↗

Stochastic charging of dust grains in planetary rings: Diffusion rates and their effects on Lorentz resonances

Dust grains in planetary rings acquire stochastically fluctuating electric charges as they orbit through any corotating magnetospheric plasma. Here we investigate the nature of this stochastic charging and calculate its effect on the Lorentz resonance (LR). First we model grain charging as a Markov process, where the transition probabilities are identified as the ensemble-averaged charging fluxes due to plasma pickup and photoemission. We determine the distribution function P(t;N), giving the probability that a grain has N excess charges at time t. The autocorrelation function tau(sub q) for the strochastic charge process can be approximated by a Fokker-Planck treatment of the evolution equations for P(t; N). We calculate the mean square response to the stochastic fluctuations in the Lorentz force. We find that transport in phase space is very small compared to the resonant increase in amplitudes due to the mean charge, over the timescale that the oscillator is resonantly pumped up. Therefore the stochastic charge variations cannot break the resonant interaction; locally, the Lorentz resonance is a robust mechanism for the shaping of etheral dust ring systems. Slightly stronger bounds on plasma parameters are required when we consider the longer transit times between Lorentz resonances.

Schaffer, L.↗

Guiding the Design of Heterogeneous Electrode Microstructures for Li-Ion Batteries: Microscopic Imaging, Predictive Modeling, and Machine Learning

Electrochemical and mechanical properties of lithium-ion battery materials are heavily dependent on their 3D microstructure characteristics. A quantitative understanding of the role played by stochastic microstructures is critical for the prediction of material properties and for guiding synthesis processes. Furthermore, tailoring microstructure morphology is also a viable way of achieving optimal electrochemical and mechanical performances of lithium-ion cells. To facilitate the establishment of microstructure-resolved modeling and design methods, a review covering spatially and temporally resolved imaging of microstructure and electrochemical phenomena, microstructure statistical characterization and stochastic reconstruction, microstructure-resolved modeling for property prediction, and machine learning for microstructure design is presented here. The perspectives on the unresolved challenges and opportunities in applying experimental data, modeling, and machine learning to improve the understanding of materials and identify paths toward enhanced performance of lithium-ion cells are presented.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Limits on the isolation of stochastic vibration for microgravity space experiments

The limitations on the isolation of stochastic vibrations for microgravity space experiments are explored. These limitations result from the restricted interior space available for vibration isolation. A one-degree-of-freedom representation of the experiment-spacecraft system is used, and an ideal vibration actuator is assumed. A kinematic representation results, and the problem becomes one of finding the minimum acceleration trajectory within a pair of stochastic walls. The wall motion is characterized by an ergodic, stationary, zero-mean, Gaussian random process with known power spectral density. The geometry of the wall trajectories is defined in terms of their significant extrema and zero crossings. This geomemtry is used in defining a composite trajectory that has a mean square acceleratiaon lower than that on the optimal path satisfying the stochastic wall inequality constraints. The optimal control problem is solved on a return path yielding the mean square acceleration in terms of the distributions of significant maxima and first-passage time of the wall process. The methodology is applied to a microgravity isolation problem to find the lower bounds on root-mean-square acceleration given the disturbance power spectral density.

Knospe, C. R.↗

The timbre of Hawking gravitons: an effective description of energy transport from holography

Planar black holes in AdS, which are holographically dual to compressible relativistic fluids, have a long-lived phonon mode that captures the physics of attenuated sound propagation and transports energy in the plasma. We describe the open effective field theory of this fluctuating phonon degree of freedom. The dynamics of the phonon is encoded in a single scalar field whose gravitational coupling has non-trivial spatial momentum dependence. This description fits neatly into the paradigm of classifying gravitational modes by their Markovianity index, depending on whether they are long-lived. The sound scalar is a non-Markovian field with index 3 - d for a d-dimensional fluid. We reproduce (and extend) the dispersion relation of the holographic sound mode to quartic order in derivatives, constructing in the process the effective field theory governing its attenuated dynamics and associated stochastic fluctuations. We also remark on the presence of additional spatially homogeneous zero modes in the gravitational problem, which remain disconnected from the phonon Goldstone mode.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Collisional broadening of nonlinear resonant wave–particle interactions

A general procedure for understanding plasma behaviour when resonant wave–particle interactions are the sole destabilizing and transport mechanism or only heating and/or current drive source is highlighted without recourse to involved numerical or analytical treatments. These phenomena are characterized by transport that appears to be collisionless even though collisions play a central role in narrow collisional boundary layers. The order of magnitude estimates, which include nonlinear effects, are shown to provide expressions in agreement with the principal results of recent toroidal Alfvén eigenmode (TAE), toroidal magnetic field ripple, and heating and current drive treatments. More importantly, the retention of nonlinearities leads to new estimates of the alpha particle energy diffusivity at saturation for TAE modes, and the ripple threshold at which superbanana plateau evaluations of alpha particle transport are modified by nonlinear radial drift effects. In addition, the estimates indicate when quasilinear descriptions for heating and current drive will begin to fail. The phenomenological procedure demonstrates that in magnetic fusion relevant plasmas, narrow collisional boundary layers must be retained for resonant wave–particle interactions as they enhance the role of collisions, and make stochastic particle motion unlikely to be more important than other nonlinear processes.

Physics↗

National Academy of Science, Engineering, and Medicine, NASA Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey (Chapter 3)

Our inner Solar System has the four terrestrial planets, Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars, along with Earth’s large Moon, two small moons of Mars, dwarf planet Ceres, numerous 100-km class asteroids, and a multitude of small bodies that populate the asteroid belt and the inner planet region. To what extent does this structure reflect a deterministic outcome of general Solar System formation processes, and how much of it is instead a consequence of stochastic events that would change in unpredictable ways if the system’s formation could be rerun? This fundamental question motivates scientific investigations of the inner Solar System, with implications not only for understanding our own planet’s origin but also for the origin of planetary systems and Earth-like planets beyond our own.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Collisional broadening of nonlinear resonant wave-particle interactions

A general procedure for understanding plasma behavior when resonant wave-particle interactions are the sole destabilizing and transport mechanism or only heating and/or current drive source is highlighted without recourse to involved numerical or analytical treatments. These phenomena are characterized by transport that appears to be collisionless even though collisions play a central role in narrow collisional boundary layers. The order of magnitude estimates, which include nonlinear effects, are shown to provide expressions in agreement with the principle results of recent toroidal Alfvén eigenmode (TAE), toroidal magnetic field ripple, and heating and current drive treatments. More importantly, the retention of nonlinearities leads to new estimates of the alpha particle energy diffusivity at saturation for TAE modes, and the ripple threshold at which superbanana plateau evaluations of alpha particle transport are modified by nonlinear radial drift effects. In addition, the estimates indicate when quasilinear descriptions for heating and current drive will begin to fail. The phenomenological procedure demonstrates that in magnetic fusion relevant plasmas narrow collisional boundary layers must be retained for resonant wave-particle interactions as they enhance the role of collisions, and make stochastic particle motion unlikely to be more important than other nonlinear process.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Parameter adaptive estimation of random processes

This paper is concerned with the parameter adaptive least squares estimation of random processes. The main result is a general representation theorem for the conditional expectation of a random variable on a product probability space. Using this theorem along with the general likelihood ratio expression, the least squares estimate of the process is found in terms of the parameter conditioned estimates. The stochastic differential for the a posteriori probability and the stochastic differential equation for the a posteriori density are found by using simple stochastic calculus on the representations obtained. The results are specialized to the case when the parameter has a discrete distribution. The results can be used to construct an implementable recursive estimator for certain types of nonlinear filtering problems. This is illustrated by some simple examples.

Caglayan, A. K.↗

Dynamical constraints on the formation and evolution of planetary bodies

The present investigation is concerned with a number of inferences as to the origin of planetary bodies, taking into account the present dynamical state of the solar system and some of the limitations which apply to the considered conclusions. Attention is given to the dynamical processes, specifically those processes which may have influenced the orbital or rotational properties of the planets and satellites. Collisional processes are explored, taking into consideration orbital spacing, planetary rotation, and stochastic effects. In connection with a discussion of the evolution of rotational motion, spin state evolution is investigated along with spin axis precession and resonance variation, and the Cassini states. The evolution of planetary orbits is also studied. The subjects considered are related to tides, secular resonances, disk dynamics, and disk-satellite interactions.

Harris, A. W.↗

Composite Loads Spectra for Select Space Propulsion Structural Components: Probabilistic Load Model Development

This effort is in support of the development of the expert system of computer codes to predict the loads on select structural components of a space propulsion engine. The development will be based primarily on the space shuttle main engine (SSME) test data base. Because of random variations of the many different sources of the loadings on the selected structural components and transients, a probabilistic approach to the problems was adopted. The goal of this task is to characterize all of the individual sources of loads at critical structural locations, such as the turbine blades, the transfer ducts, and liquid oxygen posts, using state-of-the-art probabilistic methods with varying levels of sophistication. The second phase of this work is the development of a composite load model based on a probabilistic synthesis of the individual load model previously developed. This model will be based on the stochastic combination of the load variables and not on the physical process for the combination of the individual loads to the composite load seen by the selected structural components.

Kurth, R.↗

VLA observations of rapid 6 cm flux variations in alpha Ori

The red supergiant star alpha Ori was monitored with the Very Large Array (VLA). Thirteen observations at 6 cm show stochastic variations, at the 30 to 40 percent level, with no long term trend. All data was clipped and tapered in AIPS to minimize differences between VLA arrays. The calibration source varied by less than 10 percent over the same interval. The VLA observations of alpha Ori were continued, as well as alpha Her and alpha Sco, at both 2 and 6 cm, to confirm this result and search for long term trends. The stochastic 6 cm flux behavior, with 30 to 40 percent changes on all timescales from the shortest interval of 10 days to the longest, seems at odds with the 400 day periodic variations in U-band photometry and Mg II UV fluxes reported by Dupree, et al. The observed 6 cm flux was 25 percent below the 6 cm flux reported earlier this decade. Several models for the outer atmosphere of alpha Ori place the 6 cm optical depth unity location at several stellar radii above the optical photosphere. The rapid, stochastic variations reported are difficult to reconcile with almost any global process, such as pulsation, Alfven waves or periastron passage.

Bookbinder, J. A.↗

Estimation and filtering for high-precision GPS positioning applications

Estimation of GPS satellite orbits and other parameters for high-accuracy geodetic and tracking applications is carried out with a multi-satellite batch sequential pseudo-epoch state process noise filter. Both square-root information filtering and UD factorized covariance filtering and smoothing formulations are implemented in the software to enhance numerical stability. The filtering algorithms have been arranged to take advantage of sparse matrices and other characteristics of the GPS measurement scenarios. The filter includes unique error evaluation capabilities to assess effects from mismodeling. Process noise plays a key role in the orbit determination for stochastic behavior of transmitter/receiver clocks, atmospheric-induced delay fluctuations, and unmodeled spacecraft accelerations. Present GPS orbit accuracy is better than 1 m, with ground baselines determined simultaneously to relative accuracy of 1.5 parts in 10 to the 8th over several thousand km distance.

Lichten, Stephen M.↗

Adaptive, Active Learning, and Multifidelity Monte Carlo Methods in the MOOSE Stochastic Tools Module

MOOSE is an open-source computational platform for constructing multi-physics models and executing them in a massively parallel fashion. It has a stochastic tools module (STM) for forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ) and surrogate modeling. This presentation details some recent developments to the STM with respect to the implementation of adaptive, active learning, and multifidelity Monte Carlo methods for forward UQ of computational models. Specifically, the adaptive Monte Carlo methods include Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-driven algorithms like adaptive importance sampling and parallelized subset simulation for statistical QoI estimation, rare events analysis, and stochastic gradient-free optimization. The active learning methods include Gaussian Process (GP) surrogates and their training via Adam optimization, design of acquisition functions, and integration with samplers like Monte Carlo, adaptive importance, and parallelized subset simulation. These active learning methods are also designed to work in a batch mode, wherein, the required calls to the full computational model are executed in parallel whenever a user-specified batch size is met. The multifidelity methods in STM are broadly divided into two categories: hierarchical, where a defined hierarchy exists among the low-fidelity models, and peer, where all the low-fidelity models are treated equally. A GP surrogate is used to learn the differences between the low- and high-fidelity models in both multifidelity categories, and acquisition functions from the active learning classes are used to decide whether to rely on a low-fidelity model or call the expensive high-fidelity model. Alongside the software description and usage, applications are also presented to nuclear engineering computational models including a TRISO nuclear fuel particle, a reactor pressure vessel, and a heat-pipe microreactor.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗