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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 811 records · Page 45
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Chiral three-nucleon force and continuum for dripline nuclei and beyond

Three-nucleon force and continuum play important roles in reproducing the properties of atomic nuclei around driplines. Therefore it is valuable to build up a theoretical framework where both effects can be taken into account to solve the nuclear Schrödinger equation. To this end, in this letter, we have expressed the chiral three-nucleon force within the continuum Berggren representation, so that bound, resonant and continuum states can be treated on an equal footing in the complex-momentum space. To reduce the model dimension and computational cost, the three-nucleon force is truncated at the normal-ordered two-body level and limited in the sd-shell model space, with the residual three-body term being neglected. We choose neutron-rich oxygen isotopes as the test ground because they have been well studied experimentally, with the neutron dripline determined. The calculations have been carried out within the Gamow shell model. The quality of our results in reproducing the properties of oxygen isotopes around the neutron dripline shows the relevance of the interplay between three-nucleon force and the coupling to continuum states. We also analyze the role played by the chiral three-nucleon force, by dissecting the contributions of the 2π exchange, 1π exchange and contact terms.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Defect-mediated diffusion of implanted Mg in GaN: Suppressing dopant redistribution by sequential thermal and microwave annealing

The diffusion behavior of Mg in Mg/N co-implanted GaN is investigated in response to a set of annealing conditions and methodologies, namely, 1000 °C/30 min thermal anneal, by high-temperature pulsed gyrotron microwave annealing at 1420 or 1500 °C, or by thermal and microwave annealing, sequentially. After 1000 °C annealing, the diffusion of Mg in GaN is found to be negligible, as measured by secondary ion mass spectrometry. Annealing by gyrotron microwave annealing alone induces the diffusion of Mg at a rate on the order of 10 −12 cm 2 /s. However, the use of a thermal anneal before microwave gyrotron annealing reduces this rate by an order of magnitude to 10 −13 cm 2 /s. We find that a model that considers Mg diffusion from an inhomogeneous medium that contains a defect-rich implanted region near-surface to a relatively pristine region below the implant range better explains the observed diffusion behavior than a conventional model that assumes a homogeneous medium. By analyzing the diffusion behavior using the Boltzmann–Matano method, we present a discussion of reduction in [V Ga ] by thermal annealing at 1000 °C, leading to a suppressed diffusion coefficient during subsequent high-temperature annealing relative to diffusion after 1420/1500 °C annealing alone. This effect holds potential for improvement in the precision of selectively doped regions for future applications based on the (Al)GaN material system. An improved field profile control in real devices can increase the breakdown and current-handling capabilities in power electronic applications.

Meyers, V.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Two-dimensional quantum universality in the spin-1/2 triangular-lattice quantum antiferromagnet Na 2 BaCo(PO 4 ) 2

An interplay of geometrical frustration and strong quantum fluctuations in a spin-1/2 triangular-lattice antiferromagnet (TAF) can lead to exotic quantum states. Here, we report the neutron-scattering, magnetization, specific heat, and magnetocaloric studies of the recently discovered spin-1/2 TAF Na 2 BaCo(PO 4 ) 2 , which can be described by a spin-1/2 easy axis XXZ model. The zero-field neutron diffraction experiment reveals an incommensurate antiferromagnetic ground state with a significantly reduced ordered moment of about 0.54(2) μ B /Co. Different magnetic phase diagrams with magnetic fields in the a b plane and along the easy c -axis were extracted based on the magnetic susceptibility, specific heat, and elastic neutron-scattering results. In addition, two-dimensional (2D) spin dispersion in the triangular plane was observed in the high-field polarized state, and microscopic exchange parameters of the spin Hamiltonian have been determined through the linear spin wave theory. Consistently, quantum critical behaviors with the universality class of d = 2 and ν z = 1 were established in the vicinity of the saturation field, where a Bose–Einstein condensation (BEC) of diluted magnons occurs. The newly discovered quantum criticality and fractional magnetization phase in this ideal spin-1/2 TAF present exciting opportunities for exploring exotic quantum phenomena.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Next-Cycle Optimal Dilute Combustion Control via Online Learning of Cycle-to-Cycle Variability Using Kernel Density Estimators

Dilute combustion using exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) presents a cost-effective method for increasing the efficiency of spark-ignition (SI) engines. However, the maximum amount of EGR that can be used at a given condition is limited by a rapid increment of cycle-to-cycle variability (CCV). This study describes a methodology to design a model-based stochastic optimal controller to adjust the cycle-to-cycle fuel injection quantity in order to reduce CCV and further extend the dilute limit. Given the complexity and chaotic nature of combustion events, the controller was enhanced with online learning in order to identify the statistical properties of combustion efficiency, which are needed to generate predictions for next-cycle events. This study showed that a kernel density estimator (KDE) can be used to learn the combustion properties in real time and can be incorporated into the feedback policy in order to calculate the optimal control command. Experimental results suggested that the dilute limit can be extended from 18.5% to 21% EGR fraction at an operating condition relevant for highway cruising. Additionally, the proposed controller can achieve a large CCV reduction with less fuel enrichment compared to previous methods, overall contributing to an increase in 0.2% indicated fuel conversion efficiency.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multiple Environmental Influences on the Lightning of Cold-Based Continental Convection. Part II: Sensitivity Tests for Its Charge Structure and Land–Ocean Contrast

In Part I, an electrification scheme was described and a simulation of an observed cold-based storm from the U.S. Great Plains was validated with electrical observations. Most charge in the storm was separated by rebounding collisions of secondary ice originating from prior graupel–snow collisions. In this Part II, sensitivity tests are performed with the control simulation (Part I) and influences from environmental factors (aerosols, temperature, moisture, and shear) on lightning are elucidated. Environmental factors [e.g., convective available potential energy (CAPE)] controlling updraft speed are salient. When ascent is reduced by 30% and 70%, flashes become 70% fewer and disappear, respectively; faster ascent promotes positive cloud-to-ground (+CGs) flashes. Since cloud base is too cold (1°C) for coalescence, cloud condensation nucleus aerosol concentrations do not influence the lightning appreciably. The electrical response to varying concentrations of active ice nuclei is limited by most ice particles being secondary and less sensitive—a natural “buffer.” Imposing a maritime sounding suggests that the land–sea contrast in lightning for such storms is due to the vertical structure of environmental temperature and humidity. Weak CAPE, and both entrainment and condensate weight from a low cloud base, suppress ascent and charging. Maritime thermodynamic conditions reduce simulated flash rates by two orders of magnitude. Reducing aerosol loadings from continental to maritime only slightly reinforces this suppression. Last, a conceptual model is provided for how any simulated storm is either normal because graupel/hail is mostly positively charged or else is inverted/anomalous because graupel/hail is mostly negatively charged, with environmental factors controlling the charging. Impacts from microphysical processes, including three processes of secondary ice production, on lightning are analyzed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Preferential adsorption of noble gases in zeolitic tuff with variable saturation: A modeling study of counter-intuitive diffusive-adsorptive behavior

Noble gas transport through geologic media has important applications in the prediction and characterization of measured gas signatures related to underground nuclear explosions (UNEs). Retarding processes such as adsorption can cause significant species fractionation of radionuclide gases, which has implications for measured and predicted signatures used to distinguish radioxenon originating from civilian nuclear facilities or from UNEs. Accounting for the effects of variable water saturation in geologic media on tracer transport is one of the most challenging aspects of modeling gas transport because there is no unifying relationship for the associated tortuosity changes between different rock types, and reactive transport processes such as adsorption that are affected by the presence of water likewise behave differently between gas species. In this study, we perform numerical diffusive-adsorptive transport simulations to estimate gas transport parameters associated with bench-scale laboratory diffusion cell experiments measuring breakthrough in zeolitic and non-zeolitic rocks for a gaseous mixture of xenon, krypton, and SF 6 at varying degrees of water saturation (S w ). Counter-intuitive transport behavior was observed in the zeolitic rock experiments whereby breakthrough concentrations were significantly higher when the core was partially saturated (S w = 17 %) than under dry (S w = 0 %) conditions. Breakthrough of xenon was especially retarded in the dry core – likely due to comparatively high affinity of xenon for zeolitic adsorption sites – and estimated effective diffusion coefficients for all gases were approximately an order of magnitude lower than what is predicted by porosity-tortuosity models. We propose the counter-intuitive behavior observed is because water infiltration of zeolite nanopores reduces both the adsorptive capacity of the rock and the tortuosity of connected flow paths. We developed a two-site competitive kinetic Langmuir adsorption reaction for the porous media transport simulator in order to constrain transport parameters within zeolitic tuff, where differential adsorption to zeolite and non-zeolite pores was observed. We determined that liquid saturation-dependent diffusive-adsorptive transport is affected by subtle and at times competing processes that are specific to different gases, which have a significant overall influence on effective transport parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Chemical compression and ferroic orders in La substituted BiFe O 3

Chemical compression effects on the ferroic orders in La substituted BiFeO 3 are studied by atomic pair distribution function analysis and structure modeling. While rhombohedral BiFeO 3 exhibits ferroelectricity and antiferromagnetism (AF) with a cycloidal Fe spin arrangement leading to zero magnetization, La substituted BiFeO 3 exhibits a reduced lattice polarization, strengthened AF order, and an apparently suppressed spin cycloid leading to nonzero magnetization. Furthermore, the observed changes in the ferroic orders arise from the chemical compression induced changes in the octahedral rotation and ferroelectric displacement of Bi atoms, which appear as lattice degrees of freedom entangling the electronic and magnetic orders in BiFeO 3 .

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

The curled wake model: a three-dimensional and extremely fast steady-state wake solver for wind plant flows

Abstract. Wind turbine wake models typically require approximations, such as wake superposition and deflection models, to accurately describe wake physics. However, capturing the phenomena of interest, such as the curled wake and interaction of multiple wakes, in wind power plant flows comes with an increased computational cost. To address this, we propose a new hybrid method that uses analytical solutions with an approximate form of the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations to solve the time-averaged flow over a wind plant. We compare results from the solver to supervisory control and data acquisition data from the Lillgrund wind plant obtaining wake model predictions which are generally within 1 standard deviation of the mean power data. We perform simulations of flow over the Columbia River Gorge to demonstrate the capabilities of the model in complex terrain. We also apply the solver to a case with wake steering, which agreed well with large-eddy simulations. This new solver reduces the time – and therefore the related cost – it takes to simulate a steady-state wind plant flow (on the order of seconds using one core). Because the model is computationally efficient, it can also be used for different applications including wake steering for wind power plants and layout optimization.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Influence of aluminum incorporation and aqueous conditions on metal ion release of high-Ni transition metal oxide nanomaterials

Developing a materials perspective of how to control the degradation and negative impact of complex metal oxides requires an integrated understanding of how these nanomaterials transform in the environment and interact with biological systems. Doping with aluminum is known to stabilize oxide materials, but has not been assessed cohesively from synthesis to environmental fate and biological impact. In the present study, the influence of aluminum doping on metal ion release from transition metal oxides was investigated by comparing aqueous transformations of lithium nickel cobalt aluminum oxide (LiNi 0.82 Co 0.15 Al 0.03 O 2 ; NCA) and lithium nickel cobalt oxide (LiNi 0.80 Co 0.20 O 2 ; NC) nanoparticles and by calculating the energetics of metal release using a density functional theory (DFT) and thermodynamics method. Two model environmental organisms were used to assess biological impact, and metal ion release was compared for NCA and NC nanoparticles incubated in their respective growth media: moderately hard reconstituted water (MHRW) for the freshwater invertebrate Daphnia magna (D. magna) and minimal growth medium for the Gram-negative bacterium Shewanella oneidensis MR-1 (S. oneidensis). Further, the amount of metal ions released was reduced for NCA compared to NC in MHRW, which correlated to changes in the modeled energetics of release upon Al substitution in the lattice. In minimal medium, metal ion release was approximately an order of magnitude higher compared to MHRW and was similar to the stoichiometry of the bulk nanoparticles for both NCA and NC. Interpretation of the release profiles and modeling indicated that the increase in total metal ion release and the reduced influence of Al doping arises from lactate complexation of metal ions in solution. The relative biological impacts of NC and NCA exposure for both S. oneidensis and D. magna were consistent with the metal release trends observed for minimal medium and MHRW, respectively. Together, these results demonstrate how a combined experimental and computational approach provides valuable insight into the aqueous transformations and biological impacts of complex metal oxide nanoparticles.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparison of atmospheric radionuclide dispersion models for a risk-informed consequence-driven advanced reactor licensing framework

Current nuclear facility emergency planning zones (EPZs) are based on outdated distance-based criteria, predating comprehensive dose and risk-informed frameworks. Recent advancements in simulation tools have permitted the development of site-specific, dose, and risk-based consequence-driven assessment frameworks. This study investigated the computation of advanced reactor (AR) EPZs using two atmospheric dispersion models: a straight-line Gaussian plume model (GPM) and a semi-Lagrangian Particle in Cell (PIC). Two case studies were conducted: (1) benchmarking the NRC SOARCA study for the Peach Bottom Nuclear Generating Station and (2) analyzing an advanced INL Heat Pipe Design A microreactor's end-of-cycle inventory. The dose criteria for both cases were 10 mSv at mean weather conditions and 50 mSv at 95th percentile weather conditions at 96 h post-release. Results demonstrated that GPM and PIC estimated similar mean peak dose levels for large boiling water reactors in the farfield case, placing EPZ limits beyond current regulations. For ARs with source terms remaining in the nearfield, PIC modeling without specific nearfield considerations could result in excessively high doses and inaccurate EPZ designations. PIC dispersion demonstrated an order of magnitude higher estimate of nearfield inhalation dose contribution when compared to GPM results. Furthermore, both models significantly reduced EPZ sizing within the nearfield. Thus, reductions in the AR source term may eliminate the need for a separate EPZ.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermal diffusion, exhaust gas recirculation and blending effects on lean premixed hydrogen flames

Thermodiffusively-unstable lean premixed hydrogen flames are investigated using two-dimensional direct numerical simulation employing finite-rate chemical kinetics. Three databases are generated focussing on the inclusion of the Soret effect, the recirculation of exhaust gas, and blending with methane. A simple rescaling of a classic thermal diffusion model is presented and shown to mimic multicomponent diffusion with very low computational cost and little-to-no loss in accuracy. It is also shown that a previously developed model for mean local flame speeds in lean premixed hydrogen flames can still be used provided Soret effects are taken into account in one-dimensional calculations. The addition of exhaust gas to the unburned mixture is found to enhance thermodiffusive instability; the primary mechanism for this was shown to be the highly-efficient third-body nature of water, with the reduction of adiabatic flame temperature a second-order effect. Again, the existing mean local flame speed model proved sufficient. Finally, blending with methane was found to reduce the thermodiffusive response of the flame, more so than the existing model suggests, despite adjustment of the fuel Lewis number; an adapted model is presented to account for this.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Electronic rotons and Wigner crystallites in a two-dimensional dipole liquid

A key concept proposed by Landau to explain superfluid liquid helium is the elementary excitation of quantum particles called rotons1–8. The irregular arrangement of atoms in a liquid leads to the aperiodic dispersion of rotons, which played a pivotal role in understanding fractional quantum Hall liquids (magneto-rotons)9,10 and the supersolidity of Bose–Einstein condensates11–13. Even for a two-dimensional electron or dipole liquid, in the absence of a magnetic field, the repulsive interactions have been predicted to form a roton minimum14–19, which can be used to trace the transition to Wigner crystals20–24 and superconductivity25–27, although this has not yet been observed. Here, we report the observation of such electronic rotons in a two-dimensional dipole liquid of alkali-metal ions donating electrons to surface layers of black phosphorus. Our data reveal the striking aperiodic dispersion of rotons, which is characterized by a local minimum of energy at finite momentum. As the density of dipoles decreases so that interactions dominate over the kinetic energy, the roton gap reduces to 0, as in a crystal, signalling Wigner crystallization. Our model shows the importance of short-range order arising from repulsion between dipoles, which can be viewed as the formation of Wigner crystallites (bubbles or stripes) floating in the sea of a Fermi liquid. Our results reveal that the primary origin of electronic rotons (and the pseudogap) is strong correlations.

Park, Soobin↗
DOE OSTI2025

Appraising constrained second-order power corrections in HQET with Λ b →Λ c Ι⁢ν

We derive the Λ b →Λ c form factors for the Standard Model and beyond at second order in heavy quark effective theory, applying the recently proposed residual chiral expansion to reduce the set of unknown subsubleading hadronic functions to a single, highly constrained function, that is fully determined by hadron mass parameters at zero recoil. We fit a form factor parametrization based on these results to all available lattice QCD predictions and experimental data. We find that the constrained and predictive structure of the form factors under the residual chiral expansion is in excellent agreement with lattice QCD predictions and experimental data, as well as prior heavy-quark-effective-theory-based fits.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interplay of the Spin Density Wave and a Possible Fulde-Ferrell-Larkin-Ovchinnikov State in CeCoIn 5 in Rotating Magnetic Field

The d-wave superconductor CeCoIn 5 has been proposed as a strong candidate for supporting the Fulde-Ferrell-Larkin-Ovchinnikov (FFLO) state near the low-temperature boundary of its upper critical field. Neutron diffraction, however, finds spin-density-wave (SDW) order in this part of the phase diagram for field in the a-b plane, and evidence for the SDW disappears as the applied field is rotated toward the tetragonal c axis. It is important to understand the interplay between the SDW and a possible FFLO state in CeCoIn 5 , as the mere existence of an SDW does not necessarily exclude an FFLO state. In this work, based on a model constructed on the basis of available experiments, we show that an FFLO state competes with an SDW phase. The SDW state in CeCoIn 5 is stabilized when the field is directed close to the a-b plane. When the field is rotated toward the c axis, the FFLO state emerges, and the SDW phase disappears. In the FFLO state, the nodal planes with extra quasiparticles (where the superconducting order parameter is zero) are perpendicular to the field, and in the SDW phase, the quasiparticle density of states is reduced. We test this model prediction by measuring heat transported by normal quasiparticles in the superconducting state. As a function of field, we observe a reduction of thermal conductivity for field close to the a-b plane and an enhancement of thermal conductivity when field is close to the c axis, consistent with theoretical expectations. Our modeling and experiments, therefore, indicate the existence of the FFLO state when field is parallel to the c axis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

A physics-informed and hierarchically regularized data-driven model for predicting fluid flow through porous media

This paper presents a new deep learning data-driven model for predicting structure dependent pore-fluid velocity fields in rock. The model is based on a Convolutional Auto-Encoder (CAE) artificial neural network capable of learning from image data generated by direct numerical simulations of fluid flow through pore-structures, such as by Lattice Boltzmann or molecular dynamics methods. The main novelty of the model in comparison to previous CAE-based data-driven approaches consists of three parts. The first is a methodology for decomposing the full-domain of the porous media into sub-regions, or “sub-domains”, in order to reduce the overall size of the CAE, batch process the sub-domains in parallel, and enable the CAE to learn local and generalizable nonlinear mappings of pore-fluid velocities. The second consists of embedding the finite difference solutions of the incompressible Navier-Stokes and continuity equations into convolutional layers prior to the CAE in order to provide the CAE with knowledge of fluid dynamics physics (PhyFlow). The third main novelty is that the training of the CAE is regularized with a hierarchical loss function that encourages the learning of fluid flow patterns (in a way similar to ranked modes in principal component analysis), ranking from most to least important. This is shown to increase the stability in learning, reduce over-fitting, and promote interpretability of the CAE neural network layers (HierCAE). The comprehensive new data-driven model, which we call the PhyFlow-HierCAE model, is shown to exhibit improved accuracy and generalizability of flow field predictions over conventional CAE models, attributable to the embedded physical knowledge and the hierarchical regularization, as well as realize orders of magnitude speed-ups in computation times as a surrogate for the direct numerical simulations. Examples of training and forward predictions on unseen pore-structures are provided and evaluated for data from Lattice Boltzmann and molecular dynamics simulations of pore-fluid flow. The model is shown to be a fast and accurate emulator (or “surrogate”) for predicting effective permeability of unseen pore-structures based on learning from relatively small direct numerical simulation datasets.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Commensuration Effects in Layered Nanoparticle Solids.

We have developed a hierarchical nanoparticle transport simulator (HINTS) and adapted it to study commensuration effects in two classes of nanoparticle (NP) solids: (1) a bilayer NP solid (BNS) with an energy offset and (2) a BNS as part of a field effect transistor (FET). HINTS integrates the ab initio characterization of single NPs with the phonon-assisted tunneling transition model of the NP-NP transitions into a kinetic Monte Carlo based simulation of the charge transport in NP solids. First, we studied a BNS with an interlayer energy offset Delta, possibly caused by a fixed electric field. Our results include the following. First, in the independent energy-offset model, we observed the emergence of commensuration effects when scanning the electron filling factor (FF) across integer values. These commensuration effects were profound as they reduced the mobility by several orders of magnitude. We analyzed these commensuration effects in a five-dimensional parameter space, as a function of the on-site charging energy E-C, energy offset Delta, disorder D, the electron FF, and temperature k(B)T. We demonstrated the complexity of our model by showing that at integer FFs commensuration effects are present in some regions of the parameter space, while they vanish in other regions, thus defining distinct dynamical phases of the model. We determined the phase boundaries between these dynamical phases. Second, using these results as a foundation, we shifted our focus to the experimentally much-studied NP-FETs. NP-FETs are also characterized by an interlayer energy offset Delta, which, in contrast to our first model, is set by the gate voltage V-G and thereby related to the electron FF. We repeated many of our simulations and again demonstrated the emergence of commensuration effects and distinct dynamical phases in these NP-FETs. Notably, the commensuration effects in the NP-FETs showed many similarities to those in the independent energy-offset BNS.

Qu, Luman↗
DOE OSTI2024

Shape restricted additive hazards models: Monotone, unimodal, and U‐shape hazard functions

We consider estimation of the semiparametric additive hazards model with an unspecified baseline hazard function where the effect of a continuous covariate has a specific shape but otherwise unspecified. Such estimation is particularly useful for a unimodal hazard function, where the hazard is monotone increasing and monotone decreasing with an unknown mode. A popular approach of the proportional hazards model is limited in such setting due to the complicated structure of the partial likelihood. Our model defines a quadratic loss function, and its simple structure allows a global Hessian matrix that does not involve parameters. Thus, once the global Hessian matrix is computed, a standard quadratic programming method can be applicable by profiling all possible locations of the mode. However, the quadratic programming method may be inefficient to handle a large global Hessian matrix in the profiling algorithm due to a large dimensionality, where the dimension of the global Hessian matrix and number of hypothetical modes are the same order as the sample size. We propose the quadratic pool adjacent violators algorithm to reduce computational costs. The proposed algorithm is extended to the model with a time‐dependent covariate with monotone or U‐shape hazard function. In simulation studies, our proposed method improves computational speed compared to the quadratic programming method, with bias and mean square error reductions. We analyze data from a recent cardiovascular study.

Mathematical & Computational Biology↗
DOE OSTI2025

An evaluation of multi-fidelity methods for quantifying uncertainty in projections of ice-sheet mass change

Abstract. This study investigated the computational benefits of using multi-fidelity statistical estimation (MFSE) algorithms to quantify uncertainty in the mass change of Humboldt Glacier, Greenland, between 2007 and 2100 using a single climate change scenario. The goal of this study was to determine whether MFSE can use multiple models of varying cost and accuracy to reduce the computational cost of estimating the mean and variance of the projected mass change of a glacier. The problem size and complexity were chosen to reflect the challenges posed by future continental-scale studies while still facilitating a computationally feasible investigation of MFSE methods. When quantifying uncertainty introduced by a high-dimensional parameterization of the basal friction field, MFSE was able to reduce the mean-squared error in the estimates of the statistics by well over an order of magnitude when compared to a single-fidelity approach that only used the highest-fidelity model. This significant reduction in computational cost was achieved despite the low-fidelity models used being incapable of capturing the local features of the ice-flow fields predicted by the high-fidelity model. The MFSE algorithms were able to effectively leverage the high correlation between each model's predictions of mass change, which all responded similarly to perturbations in the model inputs. Consequently, our results suggest that MFSE could be highly useful for reducing the cost of computing continental-scale probabilistic projections of sea-level rise due to ice-sheet mass change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗