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At least 811 records · Page 45

Using MERRA Gridded Innovations for Quantifying Uncertainties in Analysis Fields and Diagnosing Observing System Inhomogeneities

MERRA is a NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5). The project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales and places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The characterization of uncertainty in reanalysis fields is a commonly requested feature by users of such data. While intercomparison with reference data sets is common practice for ascertaining the realism of the datasets, such studies typically are restricted to long term climatological statistics and seldom provide state dependent measures of the uncertainties involved. In principle, variational data assimilation algorithms have the ability of producing error estimates for the analysis variables (typically surface pressure, winds, temperature, moisture and ozone) consistent with the assumed background and observation error statistics. However, these "perceived error estimates" are expensive to obtain and are limited by the somewhat simplistic errors assumed in the algorithm. The observation minus forecast residuals (innovations) by-product of any assimilation system constitutes a powerful tool for estimating the systematic and random errors in the analysis fields. Unfortunately, such data is usually not readily available with reanalysis products, often requiring the tedious decoding of large datasets and not so-user friendly file formats. With MERRA we have introduced a gridded version of the observations/innovations used in the assimilation process, using the same grid and data formats as the regular datasets. Such dataset empowers the user with the ability of conveniently performing observing system related analysis and error estimates. The scope of this dataset will be briefly described. We will present a systematic analysis of MERRA innovation time series for the conventional observing system, including maximum-likelihood estimates of background and observation errors, as well as global bias estimates. Starting with the joint PDF of innovations and analysis increments at observation locations we propose a technique for diagnosing bias among the observing systems, and document how these contextual biases have evolved during the satellite era covered by MERRA.

da Silva, Arlindo↗

Experimental demonstration and analysis of random field effects in ferromagnet/antiferromagnet bilayers

More than 30 years ago, Malozemoff [Phys. Rev. B 35, 3679 (1987)] hypothesized that exchange interaction at the interface between a ferromagnet (F) and an antiferromagnet (AF) can act as an effective random field, which can profoundly affect the magnetic properties of the system. However, until now this hypothesis has not been directly experimentally tested. We utilize magnetoelectronic measurements to analyze the effective exchange fields at permalloy/CoO interface. Our results cannot be explained in terms of quasiuniform effective exchange fields but are in agreement with the random-field hypothesis of Malozemoff. Finally, the presented approach opens a new route for the quantitative analysis of effective exchange fields and anisotropies in magnetic heterostructures for memory, sensing and computing applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Processing of on-board recorded data for quick analysis of aircraft performance

A system of independent computer programs for the processing of digitized pulse code modulated (PCM) and frequency modulated (FM) data is described. Information is stored in a set of random files and accessed to produce both statistical and graphical output. The software system is designed primarily to present these reports within a twenty-four hour period for quick analysis of the helicopter's performance.

Michaud, N. H.↗

Determination of the Required Number of Randomly Spaced Communication Satellites

An investigation has been made f o r determining the minimum number of passive satellites i n near-earth orbits required t o provide given percentages of communication time between two selected ground stations. The study is limited to the geometrical and probability aspects of the problem. An application of the analysis i s made f o r an assumed transatlantic communication system. The satellites are considered t o be i n circular, randomly spaced orbits with fixed inclination and altitude considered range from 1,000 t o 3,000 statute miles.

Bennett, Floyd V.↗

Standard random number generation for MBASIC

A machine-independent algorithm is presented and analyzed for generating pseudorandom numbers suitable for the standard MBASIC system. The algorithm used is the polynomial congruential or linear recurrence modulo 2 method. Numbers, formed as nonoverlapping adjacent 28-bit words taken from the bit stream produced by the formula a sub m + 532 = a sub m + 37 + a sub m (modulo 2), do not repeat within the projected age of the solar system, show no ensemble correlation, exhibit uniform distribution of adjacent numbers up to 19 dimensions, and do not deviate from random runs-up and runs-down behavior.

Tausworthe, R. C.↗

Electron trapping data storage system and applications

The advent of digital information storage and retrieval has led to explosive growth in data transmission techniques, data compression alternatives, and the need for high capacity random access data storage. Advances in data storage technologies are limiting the utilization of digitally based systems. New storage technologies will be required which can provide higher data capacities and faster transfer rates in a more compact format. Magnetic disk/tape and current optical data storage technologies do not provide these higher performance requirements for all digital data applications. A new technology developed at the Optex Corporation out-performs all other existing data storage technologies. The Electron Trapping Optical Memory (ETOM) media is capable of storing as much as 14 gigabytes of uncompressed data on a single, double-sided 54 inch disk with a data transfer rate of up to 12 megabits per second. The disk is removable, compact, lightweight, environmentally stable, and robust. Since the Write/Read/Erase (W/R/E) processes are carried out 100 percent photonically, no heating of the recording media is required. Therefore, the storage media suffers no deleterious effects from repeated Write/Read/Erase cycling.

Brower, Daniel↗

Exploring the Connection Between Sampling Problems in Bayesian Inference and Statistical Mechanics

The Bayesian and statistical mechanical communities often share the same objective in their work - estimating and integrating probability distribution functions (pdfs) describing stochastic systems, models or processes. Frequently, these pdfs are complex functions of random variables exhibiting multiple, well separated local minima. Conventional strategies for sampling such pdfs are inefficient, sometimes leading to an apparent non-ergodic behavior. Several recently developed techniques for handling this problem have been successfully applied in statistical mechanics. In the multicanonical and Wang-Landau Monte Carlo (MC) methods, the correct pdfs are recovered from uniform sampling of the parameter space by iteratively establishing proper weighting factors connecting these distributions. Trivial generalizations allow for sampling from any chosen pdf. The closely related transition matrix method relies on estimating transition probabilities between different states. All these methods proved to generate estimates of pdfs with high statistical accuracy. In another MC technique, parallel tempering, several random walks, each corresponding to a different value of a parameter (e.g. "temperature"), are generated and occasionally exchanged using the Metropolis criterion. This method can be considered as a statistically correct version of simulated annealing. An alternative approach is to represent the set of independent variables as a Hamiltonian system. Considerab!e progress has been made in understanding how to ensure that the system obeys the equipartition theorem or, equivalently, that coupling between the variables is correctly described. Then a host of techniques developed for dynamical systems can be used. Among them, probably the most powerful is the Adaptive Biasing Force method, in which thermodynamic integration and biased sampling are combined to yield very efficient estimates of pdfs. The third class of methods deals with transitions between states described by rate constants. These problems are isomorphic with chemical kinetics problems. Recently, several efficient techniques for this purpose have been developed based on the approach originally proposed by Gillespie. Although the utility of the techniques mentioned above for Bayesian problems has not been determined, further research along these lines is warranted

Pohorille, Andrew↗

Block triangular preconditioning for stochastic Galerkin method

Here, in this paper, we develop a new block triangular preconditioner for solving partial differential equations with random coefficients. We prove spectral bounds for the preconditioned system. Several numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of this preconditioner, especially for stochastic problems with large variance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine learning assisted phase and size-controlled synthesis of iron oxide particles

Synthesis of iron oxides with specific phases and particle sizes is a crucial challenge in various fields, including materials science, energy storage, biomedical applications, environmental science, and earth science. However, despite significant advances in this area, much of the current palette of particle outcomes has been based on time-consuming trial-and-error exploration of synthesis conditions. The present study was designed to explore a very different approach to 1) predict the outcome of synthesis from specified reaction parameters based on using machine learning (ML) techniques, and 2) correlate sets of parameters to obtain products with desired outcomes by a newly designed recommendation algorithm. To achieve this, four ML algorithms were tested, namely random forest, logistic regression, support vector machine, and k-nearest neighbor. Among the models, random forest outperformed the others, attaining 96% and 81% accuracy when predicting the phase and size of iron oxide particles in the test dataset. Surprisingly, the permutation feature importance analysis revealed that volume, which may strongly relate to pressure, was one of the important features, along with precursor concentration, pH, temperature, and time, influencing the phase and size of iron oxide particles during synthesis. To verify the robustness of the random forest models, prediction and experimental results were compared based on 24 randomly generated methods in additive and non-additive systems not included in the datasets. The predictions of product phase and particle size from the models agreed well with the experimental results. Furthermore, a searching and ranking algorithm was developed to recommend potential synthesis parameters for obtaining iron oxide products with the desired phase and particle size from previous studies in the dataset. Furthermore, this study lays the foundation for a closed-loop approach in materials synthesis and preparation, beginning with suggesting potential reaction parameters from the dataset and predicting potential outcomes, followed by conducting experiments and analyses, and ultimately enriching the dataset.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Adaptive Conformer Sampling for Property Prediction Using the Conductor-like Screening Model for Real Solvents

The valorization of lignocellulose-derived bioproducts requires effective separation from excessive water. Liquid–liquid extraction is a promising low-energy separation technology, but effective extraction requires solvent selection based on the thermodynamic properties of the bioproduct and solvent components. We propose a computational framework for predicting such properties by developing an adaptive conformer selection approach for use with COSMO-RS (conductor-like screening model for real solvents) calculations. In this framework, molecular dynamics simulations are used to generate many molecular structures (conformers) at representative temperatures in varying solvent environments. Conformers are then clustered based on structural metrics in a low-dimensional space and selected using a mixed-integer quadratic programming problem to iteratively insert a sampled conformer. At each iteration, we determine bioproduct properties using COSMO-RS. Here, we demonstrate the capability of the proposed framework on representative bioproducts to show convergence of the adaptive sampling toward experimentally measured properties with fewer calculations than required by random conformer sampling, enabling the improved screening of solvent systems for liquid-phase separation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Certifying almost all quantum states with few single-qubit measurements

Certifying that an n -qubit state synthesized in the laboratory is close to a given target state is a fundamental task in quantum information science. However, existing rigorous protocols applicable to general target states have potentially prohibitive resource requirements in the form of either deep quantum circuits or exponentially many single-qubit measurements. Here we prove that almost all n -qubit target states, including those with exponential circuit complexity, can be certified from only O ( n 2 ) single-qubit measurements. Given access to the target state’s amplitudes, our protocol requires only O ( n 3 ) classical computation. This result is established by a technique that relates certification to the mixing time of a random walk. Our protocol has applications for benchmarking quantum systems, for optimizing quantum circuits to generate a desired target state and for learning and verifying neural networks, tensor networks and various other representations of quantum states using only single-qubit measurements. We show that such verified representations can be used to efficiently predict highly non-local properties of a synthesized state that would otherwise require an exponential number of measurements on the state. We demonstrate these applications in numerical experiments with up to 120 qubits and observe an advantage over existing methods such as cross-entropy benchmarking.

information theory and computation↗

Application of neural networks to determine the discrete spectrum of the direct Zakharov – Shabat problem

A neural network architecture is proposed to determine the number of solitons generated by random processes in optical wavelength-division multiplexed telecommunication systems with QPSK, 16-QAM, 64-QAM, and 1024-QAM modulation. The dependence of the prediction quality of a neural network with a special architecture on the number of soliton modes in the signal and the parameters of this signal is studied. (paper)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Data-driven modeling and control of an X-ray bimorph adaptive mirror

Adaptive X-ray mirrors are being adopted on high-coherent-flux synchrotron and X-ray free-electron laser beamlines where dynamic phase control and aberration compensation are necessary to preserve wavefront quality from source to sample, yet challenging to achieve. Additional difficulties arise from the inability to continuously probe the wavefront in this context, which demands methods of control that require little to no feedback. In this work, a data-driven approach to the control of adaptive X-ray optics with piezo-bimorph actuators is demonstrated. This approach approximates the non-linear system dynamics with a discrete-time model using random mirror shapes and interferometric measurements as training data. For mirrors of this type, prior states and voltage inputs affect the shape-change trajectory, and therefore must be included in the model. Without the need for assumed physical models of the mirror's behavior, the generality of the neural network structure accommodates drift, creep and hysteresis, and enables a control algorithm that achieves shape control and stability below 2 nm RMS. Using a prototype mirror and ex situ metrology, it is shown that the accuracy of our trained model enables open-loop shape control across a diverse set of states and that the control algorithm achieves shape error magnitudes that fall within diffraction-limited performance.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Associative polymers with controlled sticker placement: How reversible bond distribution and density govern polymer dynamics

Associative polymers with precisely arranged stickers offer opportunities to program material properties with molecular precision. Yet, it remains unclear how the placement and fraction of stickers dictate structure, dynamics, and macroscopic properties. By developing a model unentangled polymer system with hydrogen-bonding stickers, we show that randomly distributed stickers neither form clusters nor change flow properties, whereas stickers placed at chain ends drive nanocluster formation even at low concentrations. Adding more end stickers produces a rubbery plateau spanning eight decades in frequency with two distinct relaxation timescales, in contrast to the single plateau predicted by the classic sticky Rouse model. These results demonstrate that sticker distribution dictates whether associative polymers undergo nanocluster formation or microphase separation, while substantial alterations in dynamics and viscoelasticity require both sticker aggregation and thermomechanical stability of associated domains. Our findings resolve a longstanding debate on associative polymer dynamics and provide molecular design rules for programmable soft materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Collective Risk Ranking of Highway Segments on the Basis of Severity-Weighted Crash Rates

This study is intended to focus on the major factors affecting traffic crash rates and severity levels, in addition to identifying crash-prone locations (i.e., black spots) based on the two indicators. The available crash data for different road segments used for the analysis were obtained from the Washington state database provided by the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) for the years 2006 to 2011. A Random Forest (RF) classifier was used to predict the outcome level of crash severity, while crash rates were predicted by applying RF regressor. Certain features were selected for each model besides the abstraction of new features to check if there are unobserved correlations affecting the independent variables, such as accounting for the number and weight of crashes within 1 km2 area by implementing the Getis-Ord Gi∗ index. Moreover, to calculate the collective risk (CR) score, crash rates were adjusted to incorporate crash severity weights (cost per severity type) and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) bias via Empirical Bayes (EB) method. Finally, segments were ranked according to their CR score.

Li, Dawei↗

An Evaluation of the Economic and Resilience Benefits of a Microgrid in Northampton, Massachusetts

Recent developments and advances in distributed energy resource (DER) technologies make them valuable assets in microgrids. This paper presents an innovative evaluation framework for microgrid assets to capture economic benefits from various grid and behind-the-meter services in grid-connecting mode and resilience benefits in islanding mode. In particular, a linear programming formulation is used to model different services and DER operational constraints to determine the optimal DER dispatch to maximize economic benefits. For the resiliency analysis, a stochastic evaluation procedure is proposed to explicitly quantify the microgrid survivability against a random outage, considering uncertainties associated with photovoltaic (PV) generation, system load, and distributed generator failures. Optimal coordination strategies are developed to minimize unserved energy and improve system survivability, considering different levels of system connectedness. The proposed framework has been applied to evaluate a proposed microgrid in Northampton, Massachusetts that would link the Northampton Department of Public Works, Cooley Dickenson Hospital, and Smith Vocational Area High School. The findings of this analysis indicate that over a 20-year economic life, a 441 kW/441 kWh battery energy storage system, and 386 kW PV solar array can generate $2.5 million in present value benefits, yielding a 1.16 return on investment ratio. Results of this study also show that forming a microgrid generally improves system survivability, but the resilience performance of individual facilities varies depending on power-sharing strategies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗