Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Process model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 811 records · Page 45

Deep learning to estimate permeability using geophysical data

Time-lapse electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) is a popular geophysical method to estimate three-dimensional (3D) permeability fields from electrical potential difference measurements. Traditional inversion and data assimilation methods are used to ingest this ERT data into hydrogeophysical models to estimate permeability. Due to ill-posedness and the curse of dimensionality, existing inversion strategies provide poor estimates and low resolution of the 3D permeability field. Recent advances in deep learning provide us with powerful algorithms to overcome this challenge. This paper presents a deep learning (DL) framework to estimate the 3D subsurface permeability from time-lapse ERT data. To test the feasibility of the proposed framework, we train DL-enabled inverse models on simulation data. Each measurement in both synthetic and field data is standardized by removing the mean and scaling the time-series to unit variance. This pre-processing step is necessary to bring simulation data closer to field observations. Subsurface process models based on hydrogeophysics are used to generate this synthetic data. Training performed on limited simulation data resulted in the DL model over-fitting. An advanced data augmentation based on mixup is implemented to generate additional training samples to overcome this issue. This mixup technique creates weakly labeled (low-fidelity) samples from strongly labeled (high-fidelity) data. The weakly labeled training data is then used to develop DL-enabled inverse models and reduce over-fitting. As both time-lapse ERT (1133048 features/realization) and 3D permeability (585453 features/realization) data samples are from a high-dimensional space, principal component analysis (PCA) is employed to reduce dimensionality. Encoded ERT and encoded permeability are generated using the trained PCA estimators. A deep neural network is then trained to map the encoded ERT to encoded permeability. This mixup training and unsupervised learning allowed us to build a fast and reasonably accurate DL-based inverse model under limited simulation data. Results show that proposed weak supervised learning can capture salient spatial features in the 3D permeability field. Quantitatively, the average mean squared error (in terms of the natural log) on the strongly labeled training, validation, and test datasets is less than 0.5. The R 2 -score (global metric) is greater than 0.75, and the percent error in each cell (local metric) is less than 10%. Finally, an added benefit in terms of computational cost is that the proposed DL-based inverse model is at least O(10 4 ) times faster than running a forward model once it is trained. Data generation, DL model training, and hyperparameter tuning to identify optimal neural network architectures utilized high-performance computing resources while the DL inference is performed on a standard laptop. Approximately, O(10 5 ) processor hours are used for generating data and DL tuning and training. We acknowledge that the data generation and DL model development are expensive. But once a DL model is trained, it can be re-used for inversion rapidly for the given system, with set physics and domain. Note that traditional inversion may require multiple forward model simulations (e.g., in the order of 10 to 1000), which are very expensive. This computational savings ≈ O(10 5 ) – O(10 7 )) makes the proposed DL-based inverse model attractive for subsurface imaging and real-time ERT monitoring applications due to fast and yet reasonably accurate estimations of permeability field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Frequency Response and Congestion Management using Multi-Terminal HVDC Overlay

Continental level power system interconnections using a High Voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines have been considered to bring economic benefits such as interregional power exchange. This paper describes the modeling process and studies the technical benefits of having multiple HVDC lines, including a grid of HVDC lines (macrogrid) configuration, connecting the North American Eastern and Western electric power interconnections. The models developed provide steady state and stability analysis for multiple HVDC overlay topologies and provide technical benefit analysis in terms of frequency response and congestions management. The paper also provides a comparison of different HVDC topologies performance and their grid support in case of major disturbances

Tbaileh, Ahmad↗

Fermilab Booster loss modelling and rebalancing using Bayesian methods

To meet PIP-II upgrade requirements, Fermilab Booster losses need to be reduced by 50% compared to present levels. So far, simulations are not good enough to predict loss patterns. Thus, an extensive Booster tune up will be necessary to achieve required performance. In this paper we present an effort to build a data-driven loss model using Bayesian techniques, and subsequently to rebalance losses for higher trip margins. We first created several sets of spatially and temporally isolated orbit and optics knobs, and trained Gaussian process models for each beam loss monitor as well as beam current. Novel techniques of uncertainty constraints and approximate GP fitting were introduced to handle safety and timing requirements. We then performed single and multi-objective tuning using scalarized objectives comprised of critical beam loss locations. We achieved significant rebalancing of losses, increasing margins by 25%, as well as an overall improvement in transmission efficiency of 0.4%. Automated data collection is being developed so that more accurate surrogate models can be trained over time.

Kuklev, N. [Fermilab]↗

Calculations of Arctic ozone chemistry using objectively analyzed data in a 3-D CTM

A three-dimensional chemical transport model (CTM) (Kaminski, 1992) has been used to study the evolution of the Arctic ozone during the winter of 1992. The continuity equation has been solved using a spectral method with Rhomboidal 15 (R15) truncation and leap-frog time stepping. Six-hourly meteorological fields from the Canadian Meteorological Center global objective analysis routines run at T79 were degraded to the model resolution. In addition, they were interpolated to the model time grid and were used to drive the model from the surface to 10 mb. In the model, processing of Cl(x) occurred over Arctic latitudes but some of the initial products were still present by mid-January. Also, the large amounts of ClO formed in the model in early January were converted to ClNO3. The results suggest that the model resolution may be insufficient to resolve the details of the Arctic transport during this time period. In particular, the wind field does not move the ClO(x) 'cloud' to the south over Europe as seen in the MLS measurements.

Kaminski, J. W.↗

Use of a Hybrid Edge Node-Centroid Node Approach to Thermal Modeling

A recent proposal submitted for an ESA mission required that models be delivered in ESARAD/ESATAN formats. ThermalDesktop was the preferable analysis code to be used for model development with a conversion done as the final step before delivery. However, due to some differences between the capabilities of the two codes, a unique approach was developed to take advantage of the edge node capability of ThermalDesktop while maintaining the centroid node approach used by ESARAD. In essence, two separate meshes were used: one for conduction and one for radiation. The conduction calculations were eliminated from the radiation surfaces and the capacitance and radiative calculations were eliminated from the conduction surfaces. The resulting conduction surface nodes were coincident with all nodes of the radiation surface and were subsequently merged, while the nodes along the edges remained free. Merging of nodes on the edges of adjacent surfaces provided the conductive links between surfaces. Lastly, all nodes along edges were placed into the subnetwork and the resulting supernetwork included only the nodes associated with radiation surfaces. This approach had both benefits and disadvantages. The use of centroid, surface based radiation reduces the overall size of the radiation network, which is often the most computationally intensive part of the modeling process. Furthermore, using the conduction surfaces and allowing ThermalDesktop to calculate the conduction network can save significant time by not having to manually generate the couplings. Lastly, the resulting GMM/TMM models can be exported to formats which do not support edge nodes. One drawback, however, is the necessity to maintain two sets of surfaces. This requires additional care on the part of the analyst to ensure communication between the conductive and radiative surfaces in the resulting overall network. However, with more frequent use of this technique, the benefits of this approach can far outweigh the additional effort.

Peabody, Hume L.↗

Use of a Hybrid Edge Node-Centroid Node Approach to Thermal Modeling

A recent proposal submitted for an ESA mission required that models be delivered in ESARAD/ESAT AN formats. ThermalDesktop was the preferable analysis code to be used for model development with a conversion done as the final step before delivery. However, due to some differences between the capabilities of the two codes, a unique approach was developed to take advantage of the edge node capability of ThermalDesktop while maintaining the centroid node approach used by ESARAD. In essence, two separate meshes were used: one for conduction and one for radiation. The conduction calculations were eliminated from the radiation surfaces and the capacitance and radiative calculations were eliminated from the conduction surfaces. The resulting conduction surface nodes were coincident with all nodes of the radiation surface and were subsequently merged, while the nodes along the edges remained free. Merging of nodes on the edges of adjacent surfaces provided the conductive links between surfaces. Lastly, all nodes along edges were placed into the subnetwork and the resulting supernetwork included only the nodes associated with radiation surfaces. This approach had both benefits and disadvantages. The use of centroid, surface based radiation reduces the overall size of the radiation network, which is often the most computationally intensive part of the modeling process. Furthermore, using the conduction surfaces and allowing ThermalDesktop to calculate the conduction network can save significant time by not having to manually generate the couplings. Lastly, the resulting GMM/TMM models can be exported to formats which do not support edge nodes. One drawback, however, is the necessity to maintain two sets of surfaces. This requires additional care on the part of the analyst to ensure communication between the conductive and radiative surfaces in the resulting overall network. However, with more frequent use of this technique, the benefits of this approach can far outweigh the additional effort.

Peabody, Hume L.↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Catalytic Upgrading of Pyrolysis Vapors 2.3.1.314

Catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) is a versatile pathway for the direct liquefaction of biomass and waste carbon sources to generate a stabilized bio-oil intermediate that can be further processed into renewable fuels, chemicals, and materials. The objective of this project is advance the CFP state-of-technology through integrated catalyst and process development, expand market responsiveness by creating routes to novel co-products, and provide experimental data to inform process modelling and scale-up activities. Research advancements over the past two years include reducing analytical uncertainty by achieving 100 ± 1% carbon balances during reaction testing with woody biomass, improving process efficiency by achieving a 4x increase in catalyst cycle length, demonstrating compatibility with waste feedstocks, and confirming process durability for 100+ reaction cycles. Additionally, this project supported a comprehensive pathway review to evaluate scale-up needs. This review resulted in the early identification of technical risks and informed proactive planning for the BETO 2022 Verification. Other impacts from this project include generation of broadly enabling scientific knowledge (14 publications/18 presentations since 2019), engagement with industry partners (e.g., Johnson Matthey and ExxonMobil), and identification of a promising pathway to market that addresses emerging demands for biogenic refinery feedstocks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Process Optimization and Modeling for Minerals Sustainability (PrOMMiS) v1.0.0

The U.S. Department of Energy's ("DOE") Process Optimization and Modeling for Minerals Sustainability project ("PrOMMiS Project") was initiated in 2023 to transform the national Critical Minerals and Rare Earth Elements (CM & REE) landscape, thereby supporting DOE's three enduring strategic objectives: security, economic competitiveness, and environmental responsibility. To address this initiative, the PrOMMiS Project will develop, demonstrate, and deploy an open-source, advanced system modeling, optimization, and analysis application ("PrOMMiS Software Application") that will support industry decision-makers by accelerating the scale-up of novel CM & REE technologies by de-risking the development and deployment of commercial scale processes and maximizing learning throughout the development cycle.

Beattie, KeithS [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora↗

Application of an Embedded Fracture and Borehole Modeling Approach to the Understanding of EGS Collab Experiment 1

EGS Collab is a series of meso-scale experiments and associated numerical simulation activities being funded by the United States Department of Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office (GTO) to investigate enhanced geothermal system processes under in-situ stress and slightly elevated temperature conditions. This project is designed to provide scientists and engineers with immediate access to impermeable rock at scales larger than possible in the laboratory, but generally smaller than those for commercial production. Immediate access to rock is provided via the existing drifts of the former Homestake Gold Mine, now operated as the Sanford Underground Research Facility in Lead, South Dakota. The objectives of the EGS Collab project are to develop well controlled fracture networks between injector and producer boreholes using normal and shear stimulation for permeability enhancement. The first experimental site was located off the West Access drift on the 4850 Level (4850 feet below ground surface) in phyllite of the Precambrian Poorman formation, and involved the creation of a fracture network comprising a combination of hydraulic and natural fractures. A second experimental site is now being considered near the battery alcove on the 4100 Level in amphibolite and rhyolite of the Yates Unit. Data generated during these experiments will be compared against predictions of a suite of computer codes specifically designed to solve problems involving coupled thermal, hydrological, geomechanical, and geochemical processes. Comparisons between experimental and numerical simulation results will provide code developers with direction for improvements and verification of process models, build confidence in the suite of available numerical tools, and ultimately identify critical future development needs for the geothermal modeling community. Moreover, conducting thorough comparisons of models, modelling approaches, measurement approaches and measured data, via the EGS Collab project, will serve to identify techniques that are most likely to succeed at the Frontier Observatory for Research in Geothermal Energy (FORGE), the GTO’s flagship EGS research effort. Experiment 1 has comprised a series of successful tests, including a long-term chilled-water circulation test, but the testbed has two atypical EGS elements. Active ventilation in the adjacent drift over a 50-year period cooled the testbed rock mass and hydraulic fracturing intersected monitoring boreholes making them conduits for fluid flow. Numerical simulations executed in support of the design of the EGS Collab Experiment 1, computed a radial temperature distribution and stress gradient orthogonal to the drift axis, resulting in the forecast of an oblong hydraulic fracture geometry, extended in the direction of the drift from the stimulation borehole. This paper describes the numerical simulation of long-term chilled-water circulation test with an embedded fracture and borehole modeling approach. The principal objective of the simulation work is show agreement between experimental observations in terms of production fluid temperatures, monitoring borehole temperatures, injection and production pressures, and tracer recoveries using a single conceptual model for the fracture network, using characterization and monitoring data generally available for EGS. A secondary objective is to improve the numerical simulation result comparisons with additional data available from the broader monitoring equipment within the testbed versus deeper, hotter, and more remote EGS. One complicating factor for comparisons between the numerical simulation results and experimental observations, is the Joule-Thomson heating associated with large pressure drops across the fracture network.

numerical simulation, embedded fractures and boreh↗

Unified model of short- and long-term HIV viral rebound for clinical trial planning

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectively controls HIV infection, suppressing HIV viral loads. Typically suspension of therapy is rapidly followed by rebound of viral loads to high, pre-therapy levels. Indeed, a recent study showed that approximately 90% of treatment interruption study participants show viral rebound within at most a few months of therapy suspension, but the remaining 10%, showed viral rebound some months, or years, after ART suspension. Some may even never rebound. We investigate and compare branching process models aimed at gaining insight into these viral dynamics. Specifically, we provide a theory that explains both short- and long-term viral rebounds, and post-treatment control, via a multitype branching process with time-inhomogeneous rates, validated with data from Li et al. We discuss the associated biological interpretation and implications of our best-fit model. To test the effectiveness of an experimental intervention in delaying or preventing rebound, the standard practice is to suspend therapy and monitor the study participants for rebound. We close with a discussion of an important application of our modelling in the design of such clinical trials.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Search for stealth supersymmetry in final states with two photons, jets, and low missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV

The results of a search for stealth supersymmetry in final states with two photons and jets, targeting a phase space region with low missing transverse momentum ( p T miss ), are reported. The study is based on a sample of proton-proton collisions at s = 13 TeV collected by the CMS experiment, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb - 1 . As LHC results continue to constrain the parameter space of the minimal supersymmetric standard model, the low p T miss regime is increasingly valuable to explore. To estimate the backgrounds due to standard model processes in such events, we apply corrections derived from simulation to an estimate based on a control selection in data. The results are interpreted in the context of simplified stealth supersymmetry models with gluino and squark pair production. The observed data are consistent with the standard model predictions, and gluino (squark) masses of up to 2150 (1850) GeV are excluded at the 95% confidence level.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Search for the nonresonant production of Higgs boson pairs via gluon fusion and vector-boson fusion in the $b\bar{b}$τ + τ – final state in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A search for the nonresonant production of Higgs boson pairs in the HH → $b\overline{b}$$\tau^{+}\tau^{-}$ channel is performed using 140 fb -1 of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV recorded by the ATLAS detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The analysis strategy is optimized to probe anomalous values of the Higgs boson self-coupling modifier $\kappa_{\tau}$ and of the quartic HHVV (v = W,Z) coupling modifier $\kappa$ 2⁢V . No significant excess above the expected background from Standard Model processes is observed. An observed (expected) upper limit μ HH < 5.9⁢(3.3) is set at 95% confidence-level on the Higgs boson pair production cross section normalized to its Standard Model prediction. The coupling modifiers are constrained to an observed (expected) 95% confidence interval of -3.1 <$\kappa_{\tau}$ < 9.0 (-2.5 < $\kappa_{\tau}$ < 9.3) and -0.5 <$\kappa$ 2⁢V < 2.7 (-0.2 <$\kappa$ 2⁢V < 2.4), assuming all other Higgs boson couplings are fixed to the Standard Model prediction. The results are also interpreted in the context of effective field theories via constraints on anomalous Higgs boson couplings and Higgs boson pair production cross sections assuming different kinematic benchmark scenarios.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Extreme Scale Infrasound Inversion and Prediction for Weather Characterization and Acute Event Detection

Accurate and timely weather predictions are critical to many aspects of society with a profound impact on our economy, general well-being, and national security. In particular, our ability to forecast severe weather systems is necessary to avoid injuries and fatalities, but also important to minimize infrastructure damage and maximize mitigation strategies. The weather community has developed a range of sophisticated numerical models that are executed at various spatial and temporal scales in an attempt to issue global, regional, and local forecasts in pseudo real time. The accuracy however depends on the time period of the forecast, the nonlinearities of the dynamics, and the target spatial resolution. Significant uncertainties plague these predictions including errors in initial conditions, material properties, data, and model approximations. To address these shortcomings, a continuous data collection occurs at an effort level that is even larger than the modeling process. It has been demonstrated that the accuracy of the predictions depends on the quality of the data and is independent to a certain extent on the sophistication of the numerical models. Data assimilation has become one of the more critical steps in the overall weather prediction business and consequently substantial improvements in the quality of the data would have transformational benefits. This paper describes the use of infrasound inversion technology, enabled through exascale computing, that could potentially achieve orders of magnitude improvement in data quality and therefore transform weather predictions with significant impact on many aspects of our society.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Learning from learning machines: improving the predictive power of energy-water-land nexus models with insights from complex measured and simulated data

Focal Area(s): Insights gleaned from complex data (observed and simulated) using AI; Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components, including physics- and knowledge-informed models; Energy-water-land nexus and integrated energy systems – models of MultiSector dynamics. Science Challenge: Scientific communities are in need of tools for the computational integration of physics-based models, experimental data, and empirical/observational studies across a broad range of temporal and spatial scales to explore and meet EESSD grand challenges. We require AI algorithms for the discovery of process-drivers in the Earth-energy-human system and to link them with complex measured and simulated data. We aim to understand the energy-water-land nexus, particularly under extreme forcing scenarios and rare events, leveraging scale-aware AI process models, including probabilistic uncertainties, and benefiting from the emerging 5G-enabled landscape-scale sensing and edge computing capabilities. These models are needed to identify instabilities and tipping points that manifest extreme system behaviors with consequences for integrated energy systems and the environment. This work requires fundamental advances in uncertainty quantification, in particular, to identify and model unlikely but catastrophic outliers. Specifically, we need models that are interpretable to domain scientists and, essentially, explainable to public and private stake holders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Properties and processing characteristics of low density carbon cloth phenolic composites

Ply-lift and pocketing are two critical anomalies of carbon cloth phenolic composites (CCPC) in rocket nozzle applications. Ply lift occurs at low temperatures when the A/P and in-plane permeabilities of the composite materials are still very low and in-plane porous paths are blocked. Pocketing occurs at elevated temperatures when in-plane permeability is reduced by the A/P compressive stress. The thermostructural response of CCPC in a rapid heating environment involves simultaneous heat, mass, and momentum transfer along with the degradation of phenolic resin in a multiphase system with temperature- and time-dependent material properties as well as dynamic processing conditions. Three temperature regions represent the consequent chemical reactions, material transformations, and property transitions, and provide a quick qualitative method for characterizing the thermostructural behavior of a CCPC. In order to optimize the FM5939 LDCCP (low density carbon cloth phenolic) for the nozzle performance required in the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor (ASRM) program, a fundamental study on LDCCP materials was conducted. The cured composite has a density of 1.0 +/- 0.5 gm/cc which includes 10 to 25 percent void volume. The weight percent of carbon microballoon is low (7-15 percent). However, they account for approximately one third of the volume and historically their percentages have not been controlled very tightly. In addition, the composite properties show no correlation with microballoon weight percent or fiber properties (e.g. fiber density or fiber moisture adsorption capacity). Test results concerning the ply-lift anomaly in the MNASA motor firings were: (1) Steeper ply angle (shorter path lenght) designs minimized/eliminated by lifting, (2) material with higher void volume ply lifted less frequently, (3) materials with high (greater than 9 percent) microballoon content had a higher rate of ply lifting, and (4) LDCCP materials failed at microballoon-resin interfaces. The objectives of this project are: (1) to investigate the effects of carbon microballoon and cabosil fillers as well as fiber heat treatment on plylift-related mechanical properties, (2) to develop a science-based thermostructural process model for the carbon phenolics. The model can be used in the future for the selection of the improved ASRM materials, (3) to develop the micro-failure mechanisms for the ply-lift initiation and propagation processes during the thermoelastic region of phenolic degradation, i.e. postcuring and devolatilization.

Wang, C. Jeff↗

Playing a 3-Stringed Violin: Innovation via the Joint Evolution of People, Process, and Knowledge Management System

Users continuously evaluate the value and performance of their Knowledge Management Systems (KMS). As suggested by a punctuated socio-technical system process model, today's success can quickly become tomorrow's failure should the KMS fail to meet evolving needs and expectations. The more deeply a tool is embedded in the actual work process, the more vulnerable it is to emergent changes and perturbations. This paper uses the metaphor of a "3-stringed violin" to explore how differing levels of user knowledge about tools and processes can lead to system perturbations and how the active involvement of other actors can dampen the impact of perturbations, i.e., help the system survive the operational equivalent of a broken string. Recommendations suggest ways to increase system resiliency and contribute to incremental innovation.

Socio-technical systems↗

Design for Carbon Conversion Product Pathways with Nuclear Power Plant Integration (PCC)

Coal is a globally abundant resource that historically has been used for power generation via combustion. As the power industry replaces coal with cleaner methods of generation, energy rich coal could be used in other chemical and fuel applications. This study presents a coal utilization option in which coal combustion is replaced with a carbon-free nuclear power plant and the coal is upgraded to valuable products for a variety of markets. Coal is prepared for conversion first by the pyrolysis process, which will optimize solid, liquid, and gaseous products based on the market size and potential product value, maximizing the monetary value of coal. This process is designed using bituminous coal from the Appalachian region as a basis to provide a pathway to preserve or transition coal-related jobs and create new jobs associated with the clean energy transition. Process modeling will be used to determine each component’s sensitivities, costs, inputs, and outputs Advanced and light-water reactors are considerations to supply the heat, steam, and electricity to the process. This paper focuses on the technical and market analysis used to determine the optimal processes and product pathways for the carbon refinery. Product pathways are on activated carbon, formic acid synthesis, and methanol synthesis for further upgrading to marketable chemical and polymer products.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Toward Urban Water Security: Broadening the Use of Machine Learning Methods for Mitigating Urban Water Hazards

Due to the complex interactions of human activity and the hydrological cycle, achieving urban water security requires comprehensive planning processes that address urban water hazards using a holistic approach. However, the effective implementation of such an approach requires the collection and curation of large amounts of disparate data, and reliable methods for modeling processes that may be co-evolutionary yet traditionally represented in non-integrable ways. In recent decades, many hydrological studies have utilized advanced machine learning and information technologies to approximate and predict physical processes, yet none have synthesized these methods into a comprehensive urban water security plan. In this paper, we review ways in which advanced machine learning techniques have been applied to specific aspects of the hydrological cycle and discuss their potential applications for addressing challenges in mitigating multiple water hazards over urban areas. We also describe a vision that integrates these machine learning applications into a comprehensive watershed-to-community planning workflow for smart-cities management of urban water resources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗