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At least 811 records · Page 45

Comparison of fixed charge and polarizable models for predicting the structural, thermodynamic, and transport properties of molten alkali chlorides

Results from extensive molecular dynamics simulations of molten LiCl, NaCl, KCl, and RbCl over a wide range of temperatures are reported. Comparison is made between the “Polarizable Ion Model” (PIM) and the non-polarizable “Rigid Ion Model” (RIM). Densities, self-diffusivities, shear viscosities, ionic conductivities, and thermal conductivities are computed and compared with experimental data. In addition, radial distribution functions are computed from ab initio molecular dynamics simulations and compared with the two sets of classical simulations as well as experimental data. Here, the two classical models perform reasonably well at capturing structural and dynamic properties of the four molten alkali chlorides, both qualitatively and often quantitatively. With the singular exception of liquid density, for which the PIM is more accurate than the RIM, there are few clear trends to suggest that one model is more accurate than the other for the four alkali halide systems studied here.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Quantifying the Role of EMIC Wave Scattering During the 27 February 2014 Storm by RAM–SCB Simulations

Electromagnetic Ion Cyclotron (EMIC) wave scattering has been proved to be responsible for the fast loss of both radiation belt (RB) electrons and ring current (RC) protons. However, its role in the concurrent dropout of these two co–located populations remains to be quantified. In this work, we study the effect of EMIC wave scattering on both populations during the 27 February 2014 storm by employing the global physics–based RAM–SCB model. Throughout this storm event, MeV RB electrons and 100s keV RC protons experienced simultaneous dropout following the occurrence of intense EMIC waves. By implementing data–driven initial and boundary conditions, we perform simulations for both populations through the interplay with EMIC waves and compare them against Van Allen Probes observations. Notably, the results indicate that by including EMIC wave scattering loss, especially by the He–band EMIC waves, the model aligns closely with data for both populations. Additionally, we investigate the simulated pitch angle distributions (PADs) for both populations. Including EMIC wave scattering in our model predicts a 90° peaked PAD for electrons with stronger losses at lower pitch angles, while protons exhibit an isotropic PAD with enhanced losses at pitch angles above 40°. Furthermore, our model predicts considerable precipitation of both particle populations, predominantly confined to the afternoon to midnight sector (12 hr < MLT < 24 hr) during the storm's main phase, corresponding closely with the presence of EMIC waves.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Elucidating Electric Field-Induced Rate Promotion of Brønsted Acid-Catalyzed Alcohol Dehydration

Applied potentials have been demonstrated as a powerful tool to promote heterogeneous Brønsted acid catalysis by orders of magnitude, leveraging interfacial electric fields to stabilize protonated intermediates. However, the use of flat two-dimensional electrodes with inherently low active site densities limits the application of conventional thermochemical characterization techniques that can probe the nature of catalytic active sites. Here, we use kinetic analyses with an electrostatics-based model to elucidate the intricacies of potential-induced rate promotion, employing liquid-phase dehydration of 1-methylcyclopentanol catalyzed by carboxylic acid groups on carbon nanotubes as a probe system. By using a basket electrode to directly polarize catalyst powder, we demonstrate that thermocatalytic reaction rates can be promoted by 100,000-fold, exhibiting a log–linear dependence on applied potential with rate-potential scalings as high as 125 ± 4 mV per 10-fold rate increase. In agreement with model predictions, we show that lower ionic strengths attenuate potential sensitivity, resulting from a weakening of the interfacial electric field that interacts with the acidic proton. Furthermore, we experimentally confirm the model-predicted “isokinetic potential” (at ∼0.6 V vs Ag/AgCl)─the potential at which all rate scaling lines at various ionic strengths intersect, making the rate independent of ionic strength. Base titrations reveal that only ∼8% of the carboxylic acid sites are catalytically active, yet these same active sites are operational at the highest and lowest potentials. Collectively, our results provide a key methodology for modeling catalytic effects of electric fields, quantifying active sites under applied potential, and demonstrating fundamental principles of electric field-induced rate promotion.

Catalysts↗

Investigation of the Performance and Explainability Tradeoffs for Machine-Learning Models for Predictive Maintenance of Circulating Water Systems in Nuclear Power Plants

Predictive maintenance (PdM) has shown great potential for achieving substantial cost savings and enhancing the economic competitiveness of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in today's energy market. Among the different modeling approaches that exist, machine learning (ML) tools in particular have a demonstrated ability to handle high dimensional and multivariate data and to extract hidden relationships within data in industrial environments. While ML methods show great potential, their lack of explainability---especially for black-box models---is a major hurdle to their adoption. Moreover, considering the supposed trade-off between explainability and performance challenges, careful consideration must be made as to which of these quality aspects takes precedence in light of multiple modeling options, resource availability, and domain characteristics. The present work evaluates the performance of six ML models, each with a different degree of explainability, in classifying the conditions of circulating water pumps (CWPs) by utilizing sensor data from nuclear power plants. To determine the drivers behind the trade-offs presented by this array of models, this work also tests different combinations of CWP units as the training and testing data, degrees of data imbalance, and objective functions for hyperparameter tuning. It was found that black-box models tend to afford superior performance in cases where there are far more instances of one type of labeled data than of any other type. It is recommended that a guided procedure be followed for designing and delivering an ML system that is sufficiently explainable to all involved stakeholders.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Effect of Inlet Throttling on Thermohydraulic Instability in a Large Scale Waterbased RCCS: A System-Level Analysis with RELAP5-3D

This paper presents results from system -level modeling of a water -based reactor cavity cooling system using RELAP5-3D. The computational model is benchmarked with experimental data from a half -scale RCCS test facility at Argonne National Laboratory. The model prediction is first compared with a two-phase oscillatory baseline experimental case where mixed accuracy is obtained. The model shows reasonable prediction of mass flow rate, pressure, and temperature but significant overprediction of void fraction. The model prediction is then compared with a fault case where the inlet of the risers is gradually reduced using a throttling valve. As the valve is closed, the model is able to predict some major flow phenomena observed in the experiment such as the dampening of oscillations, the reintroduction of oscillations, as well as boiling, flashing, and geysering in the risers. However, the timeline of these events are not well captured by the model. The model is also used to investigate the evolution of flow regime in the chimney. This work highlights that the semiempirical constitutive relations used in RELAP-3D could have a strong influence on the accuracy of the model in two-phase oscillatory flows.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Preparing for the next pandemic via transfer learning from existing diseases with hierarchical multi-modal BERT: a study on COVID-19 outcome prediction

Abstract Developing prediction models for emerging infectious diseases from relatively small numbers of cases is a critical need for improving pandemic preparedness. Using COVID-19 as an exemplar, we propose a transfer learning methodology for developing predictive models from multi-modal electronic healthcare records by leveraging information from more prevalent diseases with shared clinical characteristics. Our novel hierarchical, multi-modal model ( $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ) integrates baseline risk factors from the natural language processing of clinical notes at admission, time-series measurements of biomarkers obtained from laboratory tests, and discrete diagnostic, procedure and drug codes. We demonstrate the alignment of $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ’s predictions with well-established clinical knowledge about COVID-19 through univariate and multivariate risk factor driven sub-cohort analysis. $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ’s superior performance over state-of-the-art methods shows that leveraging patient data across modalities and transferring prior knowledge from similar disorders is critical for accurate prediction of patient outcomes, and this approach may serve as an important tool in the early response to future pandemics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A multi-physics constitutive model to predict hydrolytic aging in quasi-static behaviour of thin cross-linked polymers

The effect of hydrolytic aging on mechanical quasi-static responses of rubber-like materials, in particular, the idealized Mullins effect and permanent set have been modeled. The effect of hydrolytic damage on the mechanical integrity of the polymer matrix is modeled as the direct competition of two micro-structural phenomena (i) chain scission and (ii) reduction of cross-links. Both phenomena and their correlation were modeled and thus, the strain energy of the polymer matrix is written with respect to three independent mechanisms; i) the shrinking original matrix that has not been attacked by water, ii) conversion of the first network to a new network due to the reduction of the cross-links, and iii) energy loss from network degradation due to water attacks to polymer active agents. The proposed model satisfies the Clausius-Duhem inequality and is thus physically feasible. The model is validated with respect to sets of our experimental data and other sets available in the literature. The proposed model is based on the assumption of homogeneous diffusion and mainly relevant for thin samples. In view of its accuracy, interpret-ability, and deep insight it provides into the nature of damage accumulation, the model is a good choice for further implementation in FE applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Field Validation of Wake Steering Control with Wind Direction Variability: Preprint

Wake steering is a type of wind farm control strategy wherein upstream turbines are misaligned with the wind direction to redirect their wakes away from downstream turbines, increasing overall wind plant power. Wake steering is often analyzed assuming steady mean wind directions across the wind farm. However, in practice, the wind direction varies considerably over time because of large-scale weather phenomena. Wind direction variability causes wake steering controllers to increase power production less than predicted by steady state models, but more robust wake steering strategies can be designed that account for variable wind conditions. This paper compares the achieved yaw offsets and power gains from two 2-turbine wake steering experiments at a commercial wind farm with model predictions using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) control-oriented model, assuming both fixed and variable wind directions. The impact of wind direction variability is modeled by including wind direction and yaw uncertainty in the FLORIS calculations. The field results match the trends predicted assuming wind direction variability. Specifically, the yaw offsets achieved in the intended control regions are lower than desired, resulting in less power gain, while a slight loss in power occurs for wind directions outside of the intended control region because of unintentional yaw misalignment. The agreement between the model and field results suggests that the wind direction variability model can be used to design wake steering controllers that are more robust to variable wind conditions present in the field.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Benchmarking and parameter sensitivity of physiological and vegetation dynamics using the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES) at Barro Colorado Island, Panama

Plant functional traits determine vegetation responses to environmental variation, but variation in trait values is large, even within a single site. Likewise, uncertainty in how these traits map to Earth system feedbacks is large. We use a vegetation demographic model (VDM), the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to explore parameter sensitivity of model predictions, and comparison to observations, at a tropical forest site: Barro Colorado Island in Panama. We define a single 12-dimensional distribution of plant trait variation, derived primarily from observations in Panama, and define plant functional types (PFTs) as random draws from this distribution. We compare several model ensembles, where individual ensemble members vary only in the plant traits that define PFTs, and separate ensembles differ from each other based on either model structural assumptions or non-trait, ecosystem-level parameters, which include (a) the number of competing PFTs present in any simulation and (b) parameters that govern disturbance and height-based light competition. While single-PFT simulations are roughly consistent with observations of productivity at Barro Colorado Island, increasing the number of competing PFTs strongly shifts model predictions towards higher productivity and biomass forests. Different ecosystem variables show greater sensitivity than others to the number of competing PFTs, with the predictions that are most dominated by large trees, such as biomass, being the most sensitive. Changing disturbance and height-sorting parameters, i.e., the rules of competitive trait filtering, shifts regimes of dominance or coexistence between early- and late-successional PFTs in the model. Increases to the extent or severity of disturbance, or to the degree of determinism in height-based light competition, all act to shift the community towards early-successional PFTs. In turn, these shifts in competitive outcomes alter predictions of ecosystem states and fluxes, with more early-successional-dominated forests having lower biomass. It is thus crucial to differentiate between plant traits, which are under competitive pressure in VDMs, from those model parameters that are not and to better understand the relationships between these two types of model parameters to quantify sources of uncertainty in VDMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling HIV-1 Within-Host Dynamics After Passive Infusion of the Broadly Neutralizing Antibody VRC01

VRC01 is a broadly neutralizing antibody that targets the CD4 binding site of HIV-1 gp120. Passive administration of VRC01 in humans has assessed the safety and the effect on plasma viremia of this monoclonal antibody (mAb) in a phase 1 clinical trial. After VRC01 infusion, the plasma viral load in most of the participants was reduced but had particular dynamics not observed during antiretroviral therapy. In this paper, we introduce different mathematical models to explain the observed dynamics and fit them to the plasma viral load data. Based on the fitting results we argue that a model containing reversible Ab binding to virions and clearance of virus-VRC01 complexes by a two-step process that includes (1) saturable capture followed by (2) internalization/degradation by phagocytes, best explains the data. This model predicts that VRC01 may enhance the clearance of Ab-virus complexes, explaining the initial viral decay observed immediately after antibody infusion in some participants. Because Ab-virus complexes are assumed to be unable to infect cells, i.e., contain neutralized virus, the model predicts a longer-term viral decay consistent with that observed in the VRC01 treated participants. By assuming a homogeneous viral population sensitive to VRC01, the model provides good fits to all of the participant data. However, the fits are improved by assuming that there were two populations of virus, one more susceptible to antibody-mediated neutralization than the other.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Training data selection for event classification in a highly variable environment

A problem of interest for nuclear nonproliferation is monitoring activities at nuclear facilities, where proliferation events may only take place a few times and often under variable conditions. Machine learning has revolutionized data analytics by enabling the use of measurable signatures to generate predictive models of facility operations. However, traditional methods for training these models require large, reliable data sets with labeled observations, a challenge for nonproliferation. Highly variable conditions further complicate this as events from training data may have occurred in conditions quite different from the event of interest. Our hypothesis is that when events occur in a highly variable environment, careful training data selection for each test event could outperform the standard approach of using all available training data. We developed a method to optimize training data selection for the given test event and applied it to predicting the power level of the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. In this study, the reactor startup exhibits variability between occurrences due to natural variability in environmental conditions and operational procedures. Using a combination of analysis techniques, a similitude assessment was performed on data collected from HFIR to isolate clusters that were optimal for training a predictive model. Concepts such as dynamic time warping and Jaccard similarity were used in conjunction with clustering analysis. In order to validate this approach, the model was trained on every combination of unique training events and the predictive performance was compared to the performance using a subset of the training data selected by isolated clusters found through the similitude assessment.

Iyer, A↗

Optimizing process-based models to predict current and future soil organic carbon stocks at high-resolution

From hillslope to small catchment scales (< 50 km 2 ), soil carbon management and mitigation policies rely on estimates and projections of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks. Here we apply a process-based modeling approach that parameterizes the MIcrobial-MIneral Carbon Stabilization (MIMICS) model with SOC measurements and remotely sensed environmental data from the Reynolds Creek Experimental Watershed in SW Idaho, USA. Calibrating model parameters reduced error between simulated and observed SOC stocks by 25%, relative to the initial parameter estimates and better captured local gradients in climate and productivity. The calibrated parameter ensemble was used to produce spatially continuous, high-resolution (10 m 2 ) estimates of stocks and associated uncertainties of litter, microbial biomass, particulate, and protected SOC pools across the complex landscape. Here, subsequent projections of SOC response to idealized environmental disturbances illustrate the spatial complexity of potential SOC vulnerabilities across the watershed. Parametric uncertainty generated physicochemically protected soil C stocks that varied by a mean factor of 4.4 × across individual locations in the watershed and a – 14.9 to + 20.4% range in potential SOC stock response to idealized disturbances, illustrating the need for additional measurements of soil carbon fractions and their turnover time to improve confidence in the MIMICS simulations of SOC dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measurement of the Drell-Yan forward-backward asymmetry at high dilepton masses in proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV

A measurement of the forward-backward asymmetry of pairs of oppositely charged leptons (dimuons and dielectrons) produced by the Drell-Yan process in proton-proton collisions is presented. The data sample corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 138 fb -1 collected with the CMS detector at the LHC at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV. The asymmetry is measured as a function of lepton pair mass for masses larger than 170 GeV and compared with standard model predictions. An inclusive measurement across both channels and the full mass range yields an asymmetry of 0.612 ± 0.005 (stat) ± 0.007 (syst). As a test of lepton flavor universality, the difference between the dimuon and dielectron asymmetries is measured as well. No statistically significant deviations from standard model predictions are observed. The measurements are used to set limits on the presence of additional gauge bosons. For a Z' boson in the sequential standard model the observed (expected) 95% confidence level lower limit on the Z' mass is 4.4 TeV (3.7 TeV).

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Plot-level rapid screening for photosynthetic parameters using proximal hyperspectral imaging

Abstract Photosynthesis is currently measured using time-laborious and/or destructive methods which slows research and breeding efforts to identify crop germplasm with higher photosynthetic capacities. We present a plot-level screening tool for quantification of photosynthetic parameters and pigment contents that utilizes hyperspectral reflectance from sunlit leaf pixels collected from a plot (~2 m×2 m) in <1 min. Using field-grown Nicotiana tabacum with genetically altered photosynthetic pathways over two growing seasons (2017 and 2018), we built predictive models for eight photosynthetic parameters and pigment traits. Using partial least squares regression (PLSR) analysis of plot-level sunlit vegetative reflectance pixels from a single visible near infra-red (VNIR) (400–900 nm) hyperspectral camera, we predict maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco (Vc,max, R2=0.79) maximum electron transport rate in given conditions (J1800, R2=0.59), maximal light-saturated photosynthesis (Pmax, R2=0.54), chlorophyll content (R2=0.87), the Chl a/b ratio (R2=0.63), carbon content (R2=0.47), and nitrogen content (R2=0.49). Model predictions did not improve when using two cameras spanning 400–1800 nm, suggesting a robust, widely applicable and more ‘cost-effective’ pipeline requiring only a single VNIR camera. The analysis pipeline and methods can be used in any cropping system with modified species-specific PLSR analysis to offer a high-throughput field phenotyping screening for germplasm with improved photosynthetic performance in field trials.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Solution for Predictive Physical Modeling in CdTe and Other Thin-Film PV Technologies

The main goal of this work was to eliminate the ambiguity between the observed performance changes under stress and their physical root cause by enabling a depth of modeling that takes account of diffusion and drift at the atomistic level coupled to the electronic subsystem responsible for a PV device’s function. Development of advanced physical models describing capture/emission/ recombination phenomena relevant to multivalent dopants, amphoteric centers, and donor-acceptor pairs was also accomplished. These models, incorporating grain bulk, grain boundaries, and hetero-interface properties, were implemented in a self-contained simulation tool that drastically reduces interpretation ambiguity and, for the first time, allows for predictive design of thin-film PV devices.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Using iterative random forest to find geospatial environmental and Sociodemographic predictors of suicide attempts

Despite a recent global decrease in suicide rates, death by suicide has increased in the United States. It is therefore imperative to identify the risk factors associated with suicide attempts to combat this growing epidemic. In this study, we aim to identify potential risk factors of suicide attempt using geospatial features in an Artificial intelligence framework. We use iterative Random Forest, an explainable artificial intelligence method, to predict suicide attempts using data from the Million Veteran Program. This cohort incorporated 405,540 patients with 391,409 controls and 14,131 attempts. Our predictive model incorporates multiple climatic features at ZIP-code-level geospatial resolution. We additionally consider demographic features from the American Community Survey as well as the number of firearms and alcohol vendors per 10,000 people to assess the contributions of proximal environment, access to means, and restraint decrease to suicide attempts. In total 1,784 features were included in the predictive model. Our results show that geographic areas with higher concentrations of married males living with spouses are predictive of lower rates of suicide attempts, whereas geographic areas where males are more likely to live alone and to rent housing are predictive of higher rates of suicide attempts. We also identified climatic features that were associated with suicide attempt risk by age group. Additionally, we observed that firearms and alcohol vendors were associated with increased risk for suicide attempts irrespective of the age group examined, but that their effects were small in comparison to the top features. Taken together, our findings highlight the importance of social determinants and environmental factors in understanding suicide risk among veterans.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

P-model v1.0: an optimality-based light use efficiency model for simulating ecosystem gross primary production

Terrestrial photosynthesis is the basis for vegetation growth and drives the land carbon cycle. Accurately simulating gross primary production (GPP, ecosystem-level apparent photosynthesis) is key for satellite monitoring and Earth system model predictions under climate change. While robust models exist for describing leaf-level photosynthesis, predictions diverge due to uncertain photosynthetic traits and parameters which vary on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we describe and evaluate a GPP (photosynthesis per unit ground area) model, the P-model, that combines the Farquhar–von Caemmerer–Berry model for C 3 photosynthesis with an optimality principle for the carbon assimilation–transpiration trade-off, and predicts a multi-day average light use efficiency (LUE) for any climate and C 3 vegetation type. The model builds on the theory developed in Prentice et al. (2014) and Wang et al. (2017a) and is extended to include low temperature effects on the intrinsic quantum yield and an empirical soil moisture stress factor. The model is forced with site-level data of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) and meteorological data and is evaluated against GPP estimates from a globally distributed network of ecosystem flux measurements. Although the P-model requires relatively few inputs, the R 2 for predicted versus observed GPP based on the full model setup is 0.75 (8 d mean, 126 sites) – similar to comparable satellite-data-driven GPP models but without predefined vegetation-type-specific parameters. The R 2 is reduced to 0.70 when not accounting for the reduction in quantum yield at low temperatures and effects of low soil moisture on LUE. The R 2 for the P-model-predicted LUE is 0.32 (means by site) and 0.48 (means by vegetation type). Applying this model for global-scale simulations yields a total global GPP of 106–122 Pg C yr –1 (mean of 2001–2011), depending on the fAPAR forcing data. The P-model provides a simple but powerful method for predicting – rather than prescribing – light use efficiency and simulating terrestrial photosynthesis across a wide range of conditions. The model is available as an R package (rpmodel).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatiotemporal Metabolic Network Models Reveal Complex Autotroph-Heterotroph Biofilm Interactions Governed by Photon Incidences

Autotroph-heterotroph interactions are ubiquitous in natural environment and play a key role in controlling various essential ecosystem functions, such as production and utilization of organic matter, cycling of nitrogen, sulfur, and other chemical elements. Understanding how these biofilm metabolic interactions are constrained in space and time remains challenging because fully predictive models designed for this purpose are currently limited. Toward filling this gap, here we developed community metabolic network models for two autotroph-heterotroph biofilm consortia (termed UCC-A and UCC-O), which share a suite of common heterotrophic members but have a single distinct photoautotrophic cyanobacterium (Phormidesmis priestleyi str. ANA and Phormidium sp. OSCR) that provides organic carbon and nitrogen sources to support the growth of heterotrophic partners. After determining model parameters by data fitting using the spatiotemporal distributions of microbial abundances, we comparatively analyzed the resulting biofilm models to examine any fundamental differences in microbial interactions between the two consortia under the variation of key environmental variables: CO2 and photon levels. The UCC-A model predicted generally expected responses, i.e., the autotroph population increased in response to elevated levels of CO2 and photon, followed by increase in the heterotroph population. In contrast, the UCC-O model showed somewhat complicated dynamics, e.g., higher photon incidence rates resulted in the increase in autotroph population but decrease in heterotroph population due to the lowered provision of glucose from the autotroph. A further analysis showed that species coexistence was governed by the photon incidences rather than the carbon availability for UCC-O, which was the opposite for UCC-A.

Phalak, Poonam↗