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At least 811 records · Page 45

COVID-19 Joint Pandemic Modeling and Analysis Platform

The non-pharmaceutical intervention to reduce the impact and spread of COVID-19 requires the development of policies and guidance through a collaborative effort among government, academia, medicine, and citizens. To operationalize this effort, we have developed an all-encompassing situational awareness platform that can process multi-modal and multi-source data allowing informed decision making. Besides, showing the current spread of infection, the platform also captures the impact of human dynamics on the infection spread, location, and availability of critical infrastructure, prediction, and high-performance computing driven simulation. The platform is extensible, allowing third-party integration and services to consume the curated data and analytics in near real-time. We believe the platform will augment critical decision making for reducing the impact and spread of the pandemic.

Thakur, Gautam↗

A novel machine learning based identification of potential adopter of rooftop solar photovoltaics

With the proliferation of rooftop solar photovoltaic installations, there is a need to proactively predict consumer potential for solar photovoltaic adoption, for improved electric utility planning and operation. Traditional analytical modeling approaches are limited to a few survey features and a larger part of the survey would remain untouched by the decision model. This article presents a novel, data-driven modeling approach that strategically prunes a large set of consumer profile features using a machine learning framework to train a model for predicting potential solar adoption. The approach utilizes the Gradient Boosting Decision Tree model through a Light Gradient Boosting framework that improves significantly over the poor prediction accuracy of the existing approaches. Model training using focal-loss based supervision is used to overcome the difficulty in identifying the potential adopters that is inherent in conventional data-driven models. In addition, to overcome possible data sparsity in a limited survey sample, a Generative Adversarial Network is presented to create synthetic user samples and its effectiveness on model performance is assessed. A Bayesian optimization approach is used to systematically arrive at the hyperparameters of the proposed model. Validation of the presented approach on a survey data collected by the National Rural Electric Cooperative Association in Virginia in 2018 demonstrates the excellent predictive capability of the machine learning based approach to modeling solar adoption reliably.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The Land Surface Data Toolkit (LDT v7.2) - A Data Fusion Environment for Land Data Assimilation Systems

The effective applications of land surface models (LSMs) and hydrologic models pose a varied set of data input and processing needs, ranging from ensuring consistency checks to more derived data processing and analytics. This article describes the development of the Land surface Data Toolkit (LDT), which is an integrated framework designed specifically for processing input data to execute LSMs and hydrological models. LDT not only serves as a preprocessor to the NASA Land Information System (LIS), which is an integrated framework designed for multi-model LSM simulations and data assimilation (DA) integrations, but also as a land-surface-based observation and DA input processor. It offers a variety of user options and inputs to processing datasets for use within LIS and stand-alone models. The LDT design facilitates the use of common data formats and conventions. LDT is also capable of processing LSM initial conditions and meteorological boundary conditions and ensuring data quality for inputs to LSMs and DA routines. The machine learning layer in LDT facilitates the use of modern data science algorithms for developing data-driven predictive models. Through the use of an object-oriented framework design, LDT provides extensible features for the continued development of support for different types of observational datasets and data analytics algorithms to aid land surface modeling and data assimilation.

droughts and floods↗

An Advanced Open-Source Platform for Air Quality Analysis, Visualization, and Prediction

Ambient air pollution is the largest environmental health risk factor, leading to several million premature deaths globally per year. The challenge of combating poor air quality is exacerbated by growing urban populations, changing emissions, and a warming climate. While there have been many advances monitoring and modeling of atmospheric composition, reflected in the dramatic increase in archived Earth Observations, there is no single measurement or method that alone can provide an accurate depiction of the entire atmosphere. The rapidly growing collections of observational and modeling data require us to be smarter about what data to include, and how such data is used. In recent years, NASA has invested significantly in advancing the concepts for Analytics Collaborative Framework (ACF) [5] and New Observing Strategies (NOS) [4] to tackle our software infrastructure need for harmonized data management and dynamic acquisition of diverse measurements for on-demand, interactive, multivariate analysis, and access [3]. It is not enough to have a big data, standalone analytics solution; it is critical that we start integrating data from remote sensing, modeling, and in-situ networks in a harmonized manner that enables timely and data-driven decision-making for air quality management. This work presents the design and development of an Air Quality Analytics Collaborative Framework (AQ ACF), as part of NASA’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) effort, to establish a data, machine-learning, and numerically driven platform for air quality analysis, visualization, and prediction.

Liu, Qian↗

Composite Overwrap Pressure Vessels: Mechanics and Stress Rupture Lifing Philosophy

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) has been conducting an independent technical assessment to address safety concerns related to the known stress rupture failure mode of filament wound pressure vessels in use on Shuttle and the International Space Station. The Shuttle's Kevlar-49 fiber overwrapped tanks are of particular concern due to their long usage and the poorly understood stress rupture process in Kevlar-49 filaments. Existing long term data show that the rupture process is a function of stress, temperature and time. However due to the presence of load sharing liners and the complex manufacturing procedures, the state of actual fiber stress in flight hardware and test articles is not clearly known. Indeed non-conservative life predictions have been made where stress rupture data and lifing procedures have ignored the contribution of the liner in favor of applied pressure as the controlling load parameter. With the aid of analytical and finite element results, this paper examines the fundamental mechanical response of composite overwrapped pressure vessels including the influence of elastic-plastic liners and degraded/creeping overwrap properties. Graphical methods are presented describing the non-linear relationship of applied pressure to Kevlar-49 fiber stress/strain during manufacturing, operations and burst loadings. These are applied to experimental measurements made on a variety of vessel systems to demonstrate the correct calibration of fiber stress as a function of pressure. Applying this analysis to the actual qualification burst data for Shuttle flight hardware revealed that the nominal fiber stress at burst was in some cases 23% lower than what had previously been used to predict stress rupture life. These results motivate a detailed discussion of the appropriate stress rupture lifing philosophy for COPVs including the correct transference of stress rupture life data between dissimilar vessels and test articles.

Thesken, John C.↗

Composite Overwrap Pressure Vessels: Mechanics and Stress Rupture Lifting Philosophy

The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) has been conducting an independent technical assessment to address safety concerns related to the known stress rupture failure mode of filament wound pressure vessels in use on Shuttle and the International Space Station. The Shuttle s Kevlar-49 (DuPont) fiber overwrapped tanks are of particular concern due to their long usage and the poorly understood stress rupture process in Kevlar-49 filaments. Existing long term data show that the rupture process is a function of stress, temperature and time. However due to the presence of load sharing liners and the complex manufacturing procedures, the state of actual fiber stress in flight hardware and test articles is not clearly known. Indeed nonconservative life predictions have been made where stress rupture data and lifing procedures have ignored the contribution of the liner in favor of applied pressure as the controlling load parameter. With the aid of analytical and finite element results, this paper examines the fundamental mechanical response of composite overwrapped pressure vessels including the influence of elastic plastic liners and degraded/creeping overwrap properties. Graphical methods are presented describing the non-linear relationship of applied pressure to Kevlar-49 fiber stress/strain during manufacturing, operations and burst loadings. These are applied to experimental measurements made on a variety of vessel systems to demonstrate the correct calibration of fiber stress as a function of pressure. Applying this analysis to the actual qualification burst data for Shuttle flight hardware revealed that the nominal fiber stress at burst was in some cases 23 percent lower than what had previously been used to predict stress rupture life. These results motivate a detailed discussion of the appropriate stress rupture lifing philosophy for COPVs including the correct transference of stress rupture life data between dissimilar vessels and test articles.

Thesken, John C.↗

Free Vibration of Uncertain Unsymmetrically Laminated Beams

Monte Carlo Simulation and Stochastic FEA are used to predict randomness in the free vibration response of thin unsymmetrically laminated beams. For the present study, it is assumed that randomness in the response is only caused by uncertainties in the ply orientations. The ply orientations may become random or uncertain during the manufacturing process. A new 16-dof beam element, based on the first-order shear deformation beam theory, is used to study the stochastic nature of the natural frequencies. Using variational principles, the element stiffness matrix and mass matrix are obtained through analytical integration. Using a random sequence a large data set is generated, containing possible random ply-orientations. This data is assumed to be symmetric. The stochastic-based finite element model for free vibrations predicts the relation between the randomness in fundamental natural frequencies and the randomness in ply-orientation. The sensitivity derivatives are calculated numerically through an exact formulation. The squared fundamental natural frequencies are expressed in terms of deterministic and probabilistic quantities, allowing to determine how sensitive they are to variations in ply angles. The predicted mean-valued fundamental natural frequency squared and the variance of the present model are in good agreement with Monte Carlo Simulation. Results, also, show that variations between plus or minus 5 degrees in ply-angles can affect free vibration response of unsymmetrically and symmetrically laminated beams.

Kapania, Rakesh K.↗

Failure analysis of thick composite cylinders under external pressure

Failure of thick section composites due to local compression strength and overall structural instability is treated. Effects of material nonlinearity, imperfect fiber architecture, and structural imperfections upon anticipated failure stresses are determined. Comparisons with experimental data for a series of test cylinders are described. Predicting the failure strength of composite structures requires consideration of stability and material strength modes of failure using linear and nonlinear analysis techniques. Material strength prediction requires the accurate definition of the local multiaxial stress state in the material. An elasticity solution for the linear static analysis of thick anisotropic cylinders and rings is used herein to predict the axisymmetric stress state in the cylinders. Asymmetric nonlinear behavior due to initial cylinder out of roundness and the effects of end closure structure are treated using finite element methods. It is assumed that local fiber or ply waviness is an important factor in the initiation of material failure. An analytical model for the prediction of compression failure of fiber composites, which includes the effects of fiber misalignments, matrix inelasticity, and multiaxial applied stresses is used for material strength calculations. Analytical results are compared to experimental data for a series of glass and carbon fiber reinforced epoxy cylinders subjected to external pressure. Recommendations for pretest characterization and other experimental issues are presented. Implications for material and structural design are discussed.

Caiazzo, A.↗

Use of Boundary Layer Transition Detection to Validate Full-Scale Flight Performance Predictions

Full-scale flight performance predictions can be made using CFD or a combination of CFD and analytical skin-friction predictions. However, no matter what method is used to obtain full-scale flight performance predictions knowledge of the boundary layer state is critical. The implementation of CFD codes solving the Navier-Stokes equations to obtain these predictions is still a time consuming, expensive process. In addition, to ultimately obtain accurate performance predictions the transition location must be fixed in the CFD model. An example, using the M2.4-7A geometry, of the change in Navier-Stokes solution with changes in transition and in turbulence model will be shown. Oil flow visualization using the M2.4-7A 4.0% scale model in the 14'x22' wind tunnel shows that fixing transition at 10% x/c in the CFD model best captures the flow physics of the wing flow field. A less costly method of obtaining full-scale performance predictions is the use of non-linear Euler codes or linear CFD codes, such as panel methods, combined with analytical skin-friction predictions. Again, knowledge of the boundary layer state is critical to the accurate determination of full-scale flight performance. Boundary layer transition detection has been performed at 0.3 and 0.9 Mach numbers over an extensive Reynolds number range using the 2.2% scale Reference H model in the NTF. A temperature sensitive paint system was used to determine the boundary layer state for these conditions. Data was obtained for three configurations: the baseline, undeflected flaps configuration; the transonic cruise configuration; and, the high-lift configuration. It was determined that at low Reynolds number conditions, in the 8 to 10 million Reynolds number range, the baseline configuration has extensive regions of laminar flow, in fact significantly more than analytical skin-friction methods predict. This configuration is fully turbulent at about 30 million Reynolds number for both 0.3 and 0.9, Mach numbers. Both the transonic cruise and the high-lift configurations were fully turbulent aft of the leading-edge flap hingeline at all Reynolds numbers.

Hamner, Marvine↗

Comparison of simulated and actual wind shear radar data products

Prior to the development of the NASA experimental wind shear radar system, extensive computer simulations were conducted to determine the performance of the radar in combined weather and ground clutter environments. The simulation of the radar used analytical microburst models to determine weather returns and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) maps to determine ground clutter returns. These simulations were used to guide the development of hazard detection algorithms and to predict their performance. The structure of the radar simulation is reviewed. Actual flight data results from the Orlando and Denver tests are compared with simulated results. Areas of agreement and disagreement of actual and simulated results are shown.

Britt, Charles L.↗

Development of hypersonic engine seals - Flow effects of preload and engine pressures

A new type of engine seal is being developed to meet the needs of advanced hypersonic engines. A seal braided of emerging high temperature ceramic fibers comprised of a sheath-core construction has been selected for study based on its low leakage rates. Flexible, low-leakage, high-temperature seals are required to seal the movable engine panels of advanced ramjet-scramjet engines either preventing potentially dangerous leakage into backside engine cavities or limiting the purge coolant flow rates through the seals. To predict the leakage through these flexible, porous seal structures as a function of preload and engine pressures, new analytical flow models are required. An empirical leakage resistance/preload model is proposed to characterize the observed decrease in leakage with increasing preload. Empirically determined compression modulus and preload factor are used to correlate experimental leakage data for a wide range of seal architectures. Good agreement between measured and predicted values are observed over a range of engine pressures and seal preload.

Cai, Zhong↗

Development of hypersonic engine seals: Flow effects of preload and engine pressures

A new type of engine seal is being developed to meet the needs of advanced hypersonic engines. A seal braided of emerging high temperature ceramic fibers comprised of a sheath-core construction was selected for study based on its low leakage rates. Flexible, low-leakage, high temperature seals are required to seal the movable engine panels of advanced ramjet-scramjet engines either preventing potentially dangerous leakage into backside engine cavities or limiting the purge coolant flow rates through the seals. To predict the leakage through these flexible, porous seal structures as a function of preload and engine pressures, new analytical flow models are required. An empirical leakage resistance/preload model is proposed to characterize the observed decrease in leakage with increasing preload. Empirically determined compression modulus and preload factor are used to correlate experimental leakage data for a wide range of seal architectures. Good agreement between measured and predicted values are observed over a range of engine pressures and seal preloads.

Cai, Zhong↗

Theory of low frequency noise transmission through turbines

Improvements of the existing theory of low frequency noise transmission through turbines and development of a working prediction tool are described. The existing actuator-disk model and a new finite-chord model were utilized in an analytical study. The interactive effect of adjacent blade rows, higher order spinning modes, blade-passage shocks, and duct area variations were considered separately. The improved theory was validated using the data acquired in an earlier NASA program. Computer programs incorporating the improved theory were produced for transmission loss prediction purposes. The programs were exercised parametrically and charts constructed to define approximately the low frequency noise transfer through turbines. The loss through the exhaust nozzle and flow(s) was also considered.

Matta, R. K.↗

Thermal Vacuum Test Correlation of a Zero Propellant Load Case Thermal Capacitance Propellant Gauging Analytical Model

This thesis describes the development and correlation of a thermal model that forms the foundation of a thermal capacitance spacecraft propellant load estimator. Specific details of creating the thermal model for the diaphragm propellant tank used on NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale spacecraft using ANSYS and the correlation process implemented are presented. The thermal model was correlated to within plus or minus 3 degrees Celsius of the thermal vacuum test data, and was determined sufficient to make future propellant predictions on MMS. The model was also found to be relatively sensitive to uncertainties in applied heat flux and mass knowledge of the tank. More work is needed to improve temperature predictions in the upper hemisphere of the propellant tank where predictions were found to be 2 to 2.5 C lower than the test data. A road map for applying the model to predict propellant loads on the actual MMS spacecraft toward its end of life in 2017-2018 is also presented.

Gauging↗

System identification of the Large-Angle Magnetic Suspension Test Facility (LAMSTF)

The Large-Angle Magnetic Suspension Test Facility (LAMSTF), a laboratory-scale research project to demonstrate the magnetic suspension of objects over wide ranges of attitudes, has been developed. This system represents a scaled model of a planned Large-Gap Magnetic Suspension System (LGMSS). The LAMSTF system consists of a planar array of five copper electromagnets which actively suspend a small cylindrical permanent magnet. The cylinder is a rigid body and can be controlled to move in five independent degrees of freedom. Five position variables are sensed indirectly by using infra-red light-emitting diodes and light-receiving phototransistors. The motion of the suspended cylinder is in general nonlinear and hence only the linear, time-invariant perturbed motion about an equilibrium state is considered. One of the main challenges in this project is the control of the suspended element over a wide range of orientations. An accurate dynamic model plans an essential role in controller design. The analytical model of the LAMSTF system includes highly unstable real poles (about 10 Hz) and low-frequency flexible modes (about 0.16 Hz). Projection filters are proposed to identify the state space model from closed-loop test data in time domain. A canonical transformation matrix is also derived to transform the identified state space model into the physical coordinate. The LAMSTF system is stabilized by using a linear quadratic regulator (LQR) feedback controller. The rate information is obtained by calculating the back difference of the sensed position signals. The reference inputs contain five uncorrelated random signals. This control input and the system reponse are recorded as input/output data to identify the system directly from the projection filters. The sampling time is 4 ms and the model is fairly accurate in predicting the step responses for different controllers while the analytical model has a deficiency in the pitch axis.

Huang, Jen-Kuang↗

Residual Stress in Cold Spray SS304L Measured Via Neutron Diffraction and Comparison of Analytical Models to Predict the Residual Stress

Here, this study employs neutron diffraction to investigate the relationship between residual stress and coating thickness in cold sprayed 304L austenitic stainless steel. Results show that shot peening predominantly impacts the residual stress profile, leading to substantial in-plane compressive force. The impact of laser heating, a widely used method to alter cold spray's microstructural properties, on the coating's residual stress is also analyzed. The findings indicate that the maximum compressive residual stress in the in-plane component is mainly independent of coating thickness, which suggests that the material properties determine the maximum residual stress. The cold sprayed deposits possessed compressive, nearly biaxial strain and stresses. After laser heating, these stresses were replaced by tensile residual stresses. Two analytical models, the Tsui and Clyne and the Boruah models, for predicting residual stresses are also evaluated, and both models provide reasonable fits to the experimental data. At this point, the deviations between the experimental results and the models are principally caused by the inability of the current models to address plastic deformation and relaxation, and the residual stresses generated by thermal gradients.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Deep Learning Modeling Framework to Capture Mixing Patterns in Reactive-Transport Systems

Prediction and control of chemical mixing are vital for many scientific areas such as subsurface reactive transport, climate modeling, combustion, epidemiology, and pharmacology. Due to the complex nature of mixing in heterogeneous and anisotropic media, the mathematical models related to this phenomenon are not analytically tractable. Numerical simulations often provide a viable route to predict chemical mixing accurately. However, contemporary modeling approaches for mixing cannot utilize available spatial-temporal data to improve the accuracy of the future prediction and can be compute-intensive, especially when the spatial domain is large and for long-term temporal predictions. To address this knowledge gap, in this work we will present in this paper a deep learning (DL) modeling framework applied to predict the progress of chemical mixing under fast bimolecular reactions. This framework uses convolutional neural networks (CNN) for capturing spatial patterns and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks for forecasting temporal variations in mixing. By careful design of the framework—placement of non-negative constraint on the weights of the CNN and the selection of activation function, the framework ensures non-negativity of the chemical species at all spatial points and for all times. Our DL-based framework is fast, accurate, and requires minimal data for training. The time needed to obtain a forecast using the model is a fraction (≈ O(-6)) of the time needed to obtain the result using a high-fidelity simulation. To achieve an error of 10% (measured using the infinity norm) for capturing local-scale mixing features such as interfacial mixing, only 24% to 32% of the sequence data for model training is required. To achieve the same level of accuracy for capturing global-scale mixing features, the sequence data required for model training is 64% to 70% of the total spatial-temporal data. Hence, the proposed approach—a fast and accurate way to forecast long-time spatial-temporal mixing patterns in heterogeneous and anisotropic media—will be a valuable tool for modeling reactive-transport in a wide range of applications.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗