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At least 811 records · Page 45

Collision Avoidance Approach Using Deep Reinforcement Learning

A method to enable autonomous robots moving in a 2D space collision free motivates the purposed approach for collision avoidance for autonomous UAM vehicles. Challenges of autonomous collision free navigation for both problems are similar. Agents in each environment do not know the intent, or goal, of the other. Finding the time efficient paths require some level of anticipation with neighboring agents which is computationally expensive. In the original work, these obstacles were overcome with a novel application of deep reinforcement learning which offloads the online computation to an offline learning algorithm. A value network that encodes the estimated time to the goal given the agent’s state and the observable portion of the other agent’s state is trained on a baseline policy and further refined with reinforcement learning to promote time efficient collision free navigation. Online, the value network efficiently informs the agent’s decision making in the face of uncertainty of the other agent’s next move. In this paper, challenges extending this methodology to the 3D environment of autonomous UAM vehicles with kinematic constraints are discussed and initial results shown.

Collision Avoidance↗

Plug-In Electric Vehicle Handbook for Consumers (Brochure)

This handbook is designed to answer a consumer's basic questions, as well as point them to additional information they need, to make the best decision about whether an electric-drive vehicle is right for them.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Renewable Energy Data and Decision Support for Kazakhstan - RE Data Explorer in Action

In 2016, with support from USAID Central Asia and the U.S. Department of State Leadership Compact, and in collaboration with the Government of Kazakhstan and other Central Asian governments, NREL launched the RE Data Explorer for Central Asia, including world-class wind and solar resource data for Kazakhstan and surrounding countries. The RE Data Explorer provides an easy- to-use online platform for users to view, analyze, and download high-quality datasets for informed decision-making. The RE Data Explorer is part of a broader platform called the RE Explorer that provides expertly curated materials and knowledge resources to enable data-driven decisions. This case study documents how the RE Data Explorer was used to support renewable energy decision-making in Kazakhstan.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Proliferation Persuasion. Coercive Bargaining with Nuclear Technology

Why do states wait for prolonged periods of time with the technical capacity to produce nuclear weapons? Only a handful of countries have ever acquired the sensitive nuclear fuel cycle technology needed to produce fissile material for nuclear weapons. Yet the enduring trend over the last five decades is for these states to delay or forgo exercising the nuclear weapons option provided by uranium enrichment or plutonium reprocessing capabilities. I show that states pause at this threshold stage because they use nuclear technology to bargain for concessions from both allies and adversaries. But when does nuclear latency offer bargaining benefits? My central argument is that challengers must surmount a dilemma to make coercive diplomacy work: the more they threaten to proliferate, the harder it becomes to reassure others that compliance will be rewarded with nuclear restraint. I identify a range of mechanisms able to solve this credibility problem, from arms control over breakout capacity to third party mediation and confidence building measures. Since each step towards the bomb raises the costs of implementing these policies, a state hits a sweet spot when it first acquires enrichment and/or reprocessing (ENR) technology. Subsequent increases in proliferation capability generate diminishing returns at the bargaining table for two reasons: the state must go to greater lengths to make a credible nonproliferation promise, and nuclear programs exhibit considerable path dependency as they mature over time. Contrary to the conventional wisdom about power in world politics, less nuclear latency thereby yields more coercive threat advantages. I marshal new primary source evidence from archives and interviews to identify episodes in the historical record when states made clear decisions to use ENR technology as a bargaining chip, and employ this theory of proliferation persuasion to explain how Japan, North Korea, and Iran succeeded and failed to barter concessions from the United States. By clarifying when countries are able to leverage steps towards the bomb for international political gain, my work advances our understanding of proliferation and coercive diplomacy.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Unlocking the Spacecraft and Human Habitat Microbiome to Enable the Next Generation of Space Exploration

Planetary protection is the discipline that prevents harmful contamination of the solar system during exploration activities. The current international guidelines and NASA policy addressing biological contamination on spacecraft surfaces contains prescriptive guidelines of spore requirements (e.g., 300 spores/m2, 5×105 spores per spacecraft) applicable to spacecraft bound for Mars. To verify these requirements spacecraft engineers sample spacecraft surfaces throughout the assembly, test and launch operations phase of the mission using damp water cotton swabs and polyester wipes. After sampling, the potential biological contamination is enumerated using a series of traditional microbiology techniques to include sonication, heat shocking at 80°C for 15min to select for spores, and growth on tryptic soy agar at 32°C for 72 hours. To enable crewed missions to Mars and robotic exploration of the Ocean Worlds a risk informed decision making / performance-based approach to assess biological contamination offers a promising solution in the trade space. Recognizing the need for a performance-based approach, NASA’s new Planetary Protection policies now incorporate the agility for missions to be able to leverage a performance or prescriptive approach. One of top contenders in the option space is a coupled quantitative, descriptive and functional based approach to be able to assess the quantity, types and capabilities of the biological contamination present on spacecraft surfaces. A tailored, mission by mission assurance case could then be formulated by building an argument around the target body, projected capabilities surrounding the types of organisms their potential for survival and proliferation, and ability to be transported on the target body to contaminate an area of biological interest. A performance-based requirement would then be used to demonstrate the mission’s compliance in protecting the planetary environment safety objectives. This symposium talk will showcase the background and need case for NASA to develop such a capability as well as provide an update on the efforts underway in developing a transparent and responsible performance-based approach to biological contamination assessments on spacecraft surfaces.

Habitat Microbiome↗

Optimal economic dispatch policy for prosumer with energy storage considering self-consumption demand

This paper analyzed the effects of self-consumption demand on the joint economic dispatch of prosumers (energy consumers who are also producers), particularly for prosumers with both energy storage and distributed energy sources (DERs). Studies in the existing literature on the economic dispatch scheduling policy of energy storage, mostly from the perspective of electricity merchants, do not address the impacts of self-consumption demand. However, due to the intermittent and high levels of uncertainty regarding DERs generation and the dynamic demand of the prosumer, production and consumption are not always simultaneous; there are two possible scenarios in each period depending on whether DERs generation can meet prosumers' self-consumption or not. Incorporating the self-consumption demand will pose modeling challenges since these two scenarios cannot occur simultaneously in each period, and different scenarios require different decisions for prosumers. Further, this paper analyzed the two scenarios separately to find the optimal storage scheduling strategy, and the results were combined to get the optimal global solution. We focused on prosumers' economic decision-making while considering self-consumption demand and the physical constraints of a battery based on dynamic programming. Our study showed that the feasible state of charge (SOC) range of storage can be segmented into several sub-ranges by SOC reference points under the above two scenarios. As a result, a prosumer's optimal scheduling can be uniquely and conveniently selected based on the sub-ranges within which the current SOC falls. The results, therefore, provided multistage decision-making guidance for prosumers with energy storage.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

LandScan mosaic enables high-resolution gridded population estimates with explicit uncertainty

Gridded population datasets represent high-resolution distributions of human occupancy, enabling informed decision-making across a broad range of fields. These data products are valuable for assessing environmental risk, urban development, disaster preparedness and resource allocation—areas where accurate population estimates directly enhance policy effectiveness and optimize resource distribution. Despite the importance of gridded population datasets, traditional population modeling approaches often overlook inherent uncertainties in the estimation process. This limitation can create a false sense of certainty in population estimates, potentially leading to flawed decisions by those who rely on the data. To address this methodological gap, we introduce a probabilistic machine learning modeling framework, LandScan Mosaic, that explicitly incorporates uncertainty into the population modeling process. Our approach systematically quantifies uncertainty in three key modeling parameters of the LandScan HD gridded population dataset: building use types, floor counts, and occupancy rates. By employing Monte Carlo simulations, we propagate these uncertainties through the modeling process, yielding probability distributions of population counts in place of deterministic point estimates. We demonstrate the practical application of this framework in Iloilo City, Philippines, using structured decision-making techniques and our probabilistic estimates to identify and prioritize areas most affected by projected flooding, supporting targeted interventions that address both economic and social risks. In doing so, we propose a population-specific approach for incorporating confidence into structured decision making processes. Through a comparative analysis with conventional deterministic approaches and point estimate approaches, including LandScan HD and WorldPop, we evaluate how the incorporation of machine learning and uncertainty influences decision rankings. This research advances population distribution modeling by offering a robust, quantitative approach that explicitly accounts for uncertainty in the underlying data, along with guidance for how users can apply uncertainty in their decision-making.

Environmental sciences↗

NCSE's 13th National Conference on Disasters and Environment: Science, Preparedness and Resilience, Post Conference Follow-up Activities and Dissemination

The National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE) received $15,000 from the US Department of Energy to support post-conference activities of the 13th National Conference on the theme of Disasters and the Environment: Science, Preparedness and Resilience, held on January 15-17, 2013 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington, DC. Over 1,000 participants from the scientific, emergency response, policy, conservation, and business communities, as well as federal and local government officials, and international entities attended the event. The conference developed actionable outcomes that constructively advance the science behind decision-making on environmental disasters, with an intended result of more prepared and resilient communities in light of a changing climate. Disasters and Environment topic was addressed through six organizing themes: Cascading Disasters; Intersection of the Built and Natural Environments; Disasters as Mechanisms of Ecosystem Change; Rethinking Recovery and Expanding the Vision of Mitigation; Human Behavior and its Consequences; and "No Regrets" Resilience. The program featured eight plenary sessions, 24 symposia and 23 breakout workshops and addressed pivotal issues surrounding disasters and environment including lifeline services, the energy, climate, hazard nexus, grid collapse, community vulnerability, and natural resource management. Sessions, symposia and workshops were conducted by over 200 distinguished thought leaders, scientists, government officials, policy experts and international speakers throughout the three day event. Following the conference, NCSE prepared a set of recommendations and results from the workshops and disseminated the results to universities, organizations and agencies, the business community. NCSE’s national dissemination involved organized several targeted trips and meetings to disseminate significant findings to key stakeholder groups.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

FlexIO: I/O Middleware for Location-Flexible Scientific Data Analytics

Increasingly severe I/O bottlenecks on High-End Computing machines are prompting scientists to process simulation output data online while simulations are running and before storing data on disk. There are several options to place data analytics along the I/O path: on compute nodes, on separate nodes dedicated to analytics, or after data is stored on persistent storage. Since different placements have different impact on performance and cost, there is a consequent need for flexibility in the location of data analytics. The FlexIO middleware described in this paper makes it easy for scientists to obtain such flexibility, by offering simple abstractions and diverse data movement methods to couple simulation with analytics. Various placement policies can be built on top of FlexIO to exploit the trade-offs in performing analytics at different levels of the I/O hierarchy. Experimental results demonstrate that FlexIO can support a variety of simulation and analytics workloads at large scale through flexible placement options, efficient data movement, and dynamic deployment of data manipulation functionalities.

Computer Science↗

Redefining the U.S. Agenda for Nuclear Disarmament, Analysis and Reflections

With Lewis Dunn’s paper on nuclear disarmament diplomacy, we are inaugurating a new monograph series under the auspices of the Center for Global Security Research at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The series will explore complex emerging challenges in the emerging security environment as they bear on issues of deterrence, assurance, and strategic stability. Our goal is to explore these issues deeply enough to provide significant new understanding that is technically informed and policy relevant. Our premise is that thoughtful students of international security affairs continue to value such in-depth analysis as a way to help make sense of the large flow of data and opinion that reaches all of us on a daily basis. Our ambition is to generate four to six such papers per year on especially salient topics. The views expressed in these papers are those of the author and should not be attributed to the Center, the Laboratory, or the U.S. government. This inaugural paper addresses one of the key questions facing national leadership seven to eight years after President Obama’s April 2009 remarks in Prague and his commitment to take practical steps towards the long-term goal of the elimination of nuclear weapons. In the interim, some important steps have been taken. But there have also been many disappointments. The new presidential administration will face a security landscape quite different from that of eight years ago and must reassess U.S. priorities and approaches. As Lewis Dunn argues, some will be tempted to walk away entirely from the disarmament agenda, while others will advocate even more forcefully for unilateral U.S. steps to further reduce the role and number of nuclear weapons in its posture. Dr. Dunn sets out his own vision of how to adapt and carry forward the disarmament agenda, in a manner informed by developments in the security environment that point to a continuing role for nuclear deterrence. The result is both fresh and compelling.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Current Status of the International Lunar Network (ILN) Anchor Nodes Mission

NASA's Science Mission Directorate s (SMD) International Lunar Network Anchor Nodes Mission continues its concept development and is scheduled to complete the first formal milestone gate of a Mission Concept Review (MCR) in Autumn 2009. The mission will establish two-four nodes of the International Lunar Network (ILN), a network of lunar geophysical stations envisioned to be emplaced by the many nations collaborating on this joint endeavor. This mission will operate over six years or more and make significant progress in satisfying many of the National Research Council s lunar science objectives, while strategically contributing to the U.S. Vision for Space Exploration Policy's objective for a robust robotic lunar program. This paper will provide a status report on the ILN Anchor Nodes mission and overview of the concept to date, which is being implemented jointly by NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center and The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.

Cohen, Barbara A.↗

Identifying Human Factors Research for Unmanned Aircraft Systems and Advanced Air Mobility

This paper identifies some of the key human factors (HF) challenges when integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) into the civil airspace. Unique HF considerations—those which are derived from the key differentiating aspects of UAS/AAM compared to conventional aviation—are the primary basis for identifying HF research opportunities. By identifying what makes UAS and AAM fundamentally different from conventional aviation, from a human integration perspective, HF research can be targeted to effectively inform best practices, standards, policy, guidance, and regulations associated with aircraft and air traffic systems and operations. HF research areas are discussed within the following topic areas: Sustained low-altitude operations; loss of natural sensing; novel aircraft; novel operations; link management and lost link; link performance; distributed pilot teams; and increased automation. The identified research descriptions are intended to serve as illustrative examples of what research is fundamental, and why. They are not intended to prescribe, prioritize or exclude research.

AAM↗

Identifying Human Factors Research for Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and Advanced Air Mobility (AAM)

This paper identifies some of the key human factors (HF) challenges when integrating Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) and Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) into the civil airspace. Unique HF considerations—those which are derived from the key differentiating aspects of UAS/AAM compared to conventional aviation—are the primary basis for identifying HF research opportunities. By identifying what makes UAS and AAM fundamentally different from conventional aviation, from a human integration perspective, HF research can be targeted to effectively inform best practices, standards, policy, guidance, and regulations associated with aircraft and air traffic systems and operations. HF research areas are discussed within the following topic areas: Sustained low-altitude operations; loss of natural sensing; novel aircraft; novel operations; link management and lost link; link performance; distributed pilot teams; and increased automation. The identified research descriptions are intended to serve as illustrative examples of what research is fundamental, and why. They are not intended to prescribe, prioritize or exclude research.

AAM↗

Unmaking the Bomb: A Fissile Material Approach to Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation

Achieving nuclear disarmament, stopping nuclear proliferation, and preventing nuclear terrorism are among the most critical challenges facing the world today. Unmaking the Bomb proposes a new approach to reaching these long-held goals. Rather than considering them as separate issues, the authors—physicists and experts on nuclear security—argue that all three of these goals can be understood and realized together if we focus on the production, stockpiling, and disposal of plutonium and highly enriched uranium—the fissile materials that are the key ingredients used to make nuclear weapons. The authors describe the history, production, national stockpiles, and current military and civilian uses of plutonium and highly enriched uranium, and propose policies aimed at reducing and eventually eliminating these fissile materials worldwide. These include an end to the production of highly enriched uranium and plutonium for weapons, an end to their use as reactor fuels, and the verified elimination of all national stockpiles.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Regulatory Policy and Markets for Energy Storage in North America

The last 5 years have been one of the most exciting times for the energy storage industry. We have seen significant advancements in the regulatory process to make accommodations for valuing and monetizing energy storage for what it provides to the grid. The most impactful regulatory decision for the energy storage industry has come from California, where the California Public Utilities Commission issued a decision that mandates procurement requirements of 1.325 GW for energy storage to 3 investor-own utilities in 4 stages: in 2014, 2016, 2018, and 2020. Furthermore, at the Federal level, FERC’s Order 755, requires the transmission operators to develop pay for performance tariffs for ancillary services. This has had direct impact on the market design of US competitive wholesale markets and the monetization of fast responding grid assets. While this order is technology neutral, it clearly plays into the fast-responding capability of energy storage technologies. Today PJM, CAISO, MISO, NYISO, and NE-ISO have implemented Order 755 and offer new tariff for regulation services based on pay-for-performance principles. Furthermore, FERC Order 784, issued in July 2013 requires transmission providers to consider speed and accuracy in determining the requirements for ancillary services. In November 2013, FERC issued Order 972, which revises the small generator interconnection agreement which declares energy storage as a power source. This order puts energy storage on par with existing generators. This paper will discuss the implementation of FERC’s Pay for Performance Regulation order at all ISOs in the U.S. under FERC regulatory authority (this excludes ERCOT). Also discussed will be the market impacts and overall impacts on the NERC regulation performance indexes. The paper will end with a discussion on the California and Ontario, Canada procurement mandates and the opportunity that it may present to the energy storage industry.

Kintner-Meyer, Michael CW↗

A New Appraisal- Lessons from the History of Efforts to Value Green and High-Performance Home Attributes in the United States

Rigorous consideration of green and high-performance (“green/HP”) features is rarely included in the property valuation process._ To help illuminate why this is the case, this report takes stock of the history of efforts to improve practices, and identifies barriers that have emerged and opportunities for overcoming them. Particular emphasis is placed on what energy and environmental policymakers and other stakeholders outside the appraisal community can contribute to the broader effort to advance professional practices. The history has unfolded in parallel with turbulent periods in the housing market for which appraisers and their customers are deemed to share responsibility, followed by cycles of regulations, siloing of appraisers in the name of professional integrity, and commoditization of the valuation process itself. This pattern has important ramifications for aspirations that appraisers engage more fully in identifying and valuing the green/HP characteristics of homes. On the one hand, it is legally and ethically incumbent on appraisers to do so, yet on the other hand it is perceived as a risky avenue to follow. Risks arise where findings can be challenged as either over- or under-stating value, together with a market environment in which the complexity of their assignments increases despite downward pressure on appraiser fees. While efforts to address green/HP considerations date back to the early 1980s, the vast majority of activity has taken place within the past five years. Many players have engaged in the efforts to promote improved valuation practices. These include the Appraisal Foundation, The Appraisal Institute, Colorado Energy Office, Earth Advantage, EcoBroker, Elevate Energy, Fannie Mae, Federal Housing Administration, Home Innovation Research Labs, The Institute for Market Transformation, Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, National Association of Homebuilders, National Association of State Energy Officials, National Association of Appraisers, RESNET, USEPA, USDOE and its National Laboratories, the U.S. Green Buildings Council, and the Vermont Green Homes Alliance. Many activities have resulted, ranging from trainings, to data-gathering instruments, and the emergence of a literature attempting to statistically isolate the effects of green/HP characteristics on home values. In some cases, the results of studies have been overgeneralized and oversold, and embodied flawed methods. Although the green/HP community has encouraged appraisers to focus on exemplary buildings (e.g., LEED or ENERGY STAR Certified), any level of green or energy performance can in fact influence value, including below-average performance (a.k.a. “brown discount”), irrespective of whether or not the building has been formally rated. This overly narrow focus represents a significant missed opportunity. Other surmountable challenges include limitations to non-appraisers’ understanding of the appraisal process (and practical constraints therein). A byproduct of this can be unrealistic expectations of what appraisers can and will do in the marketplace. These challenges notwithstanding, the environment for moving forward has improved. There is better data today (a critical need); expanded efforts to disclose energy use information (characteristics, consumption, bills); improved and more pervasive building energy codes, building rating and labeling initiatives; and a host of federal, state, and local policies that have collectively brought green/HP practices much more into the mainstream. Meanwhile, a renewed focus on professional standards of care and competency for assessing green/HP homes make it increasingly important for appraisers to consider these factors in their assignments. Despite the past four decades of studies, there is little if any discernible uptake of these practices by the appraisal practice at large. It would behoove interested parties to step back and consider what new strategies might be productive. A key element of any new plan should be to reset the nature of interactions with the industry, with the goal a more collaborative, two-way discussion to help improve outsiders’ understanding of the valuation process. It is not only the appraiser that needs to be engaged and could benefit from awareness raising. Homeowners, builders, lenders, utilities, insurance companies should also provide input on how green/HP factors impact property valuations and ways to accurately reflect these considerations in appraisals and real estate transactions more broadly. Given extensive inertia within the appraisal industry and a mixed history of interactions with the non-appraisal stakeholders, it is unlikely that the status quo will achieve much unless followed with more coordinated and persistent efforts. Workshops, studies, and memoranda of understanding will not on their own have much impact, and do not address deeper structural issues. Expectations are often unrealistic and not attentive to real-world constraints faced by appraisers. The report identifies key barriers impeding more thorough consideration of green/HP factors in residential real estate appraisals, and solutions for mitigating them. Barriers • Although industry standards of practice caution against bias of any sort, a skeptical predisposition towards “green” is reinforced by information deficiencies. • Information deficiencies result from the lack or difficulty of obtaining usable data on green/HP features in subject properties as well as valid sales comparisons or cashflow analyses. • Competency deficiencies, such as lack of conversancy in relevant technical topics, leads to oversights, and disjointed treatment of relevant information. • Time/cost pressure and process commoditization (e.g., template-based approaches) result from highly constrained budgets, quick turn-around times expected of appraisers, and standardized practices that were not developed with green/HP considerations in mind. • Professional differences between appraisers and sustainability professionals include divergent objectives, the former being market observers and the latter market influencers. • Risk aversion arises from multiple concerns including veracity, accuracy, and persistence of energy data, impacts of operational choices, new sources of appraiser liability associated with green/HP assessments, industry pressures not to over-value buildings or suggestion of bias, and concern about spending non-billable time on complex assignments. • A public policy vacuum has been created by disjointed and uncoordinated efforts from public-sector stakeholders, insufficient efforts to discuss and understand the appraisal industry and process, and a perception by some valuation professionals that green/HP is oversold. Opportunities • Elevating the competency of appraisers can be achieved through a combination of improved industry standards of care and equal-access training and professional development offerings. • Development of better information resources must focus on building-level information that provides robust documentation as well as aggregate sales-comparison data and other contextual information such as local codes, typical upgrade costs, energy prices, etc. • Improved energy benchmarking and rating tools could provide appraisers with information more well-adapted to their particular needs, which differ from those of typical audiences such as energy managers. • Better characterizing and managing risk will enable appraisers to cope with uncertainties in performance information, and help identify where risks may be introduced or mitigated by green/HP features, including higher costs or obsolescence of poorly-performing buildings. • Integrating disaster resilience and sustainability in appraisals would recognize important synergisms among these features, including durability and ability of green/HP buildings to better withstand external hazards. • Mitigating the problem of additional time/cost for performing assignments is an essential need that can be addressed by providing easier access to information and analytic procedures, perhaps coupled with new resources to defray the associated costs. • Enhancing demand for improved appraisals is a fundamental need, and depends on owners, developers, lenders, and others soliciting competent appraisers to perform scopes that expressly call out green/HP considerations, and to critically review the work product for compliance before acceptance. • Engaging new market participants, such as energy utilities and insurance companies can ensure fuller representation and participation of market stakeholders already engaged in green/HP activities and capable of furnishing valuable data and managing associated risks. Cutting across these individual activities, there is a need for outside stakeholders to formulate and follow a roadmap instead of piecemeal initiatives, bridging the professional/cultural divide between appraisers and green/HP communities, and tracking progress in order to know what is working. A more coherent communication and training strategy is needed, as the appraisal industry is highly fragmented, with two-thirds of appraisers opting out of membership in trade associations. In sum, while there is no silver bullet for advancing the practice of valuing green/HP features, there are concrete opportunities. Parties seeking solutions must identify barriers they wish to address and select from among potential initiatives that map to those barriers. Close collaboration with the appraisal community is critical, as non-appraisers have historically obtained limited traction with this industry due to lack of understanding of the nuances involved in the valuation profession. Large organizations and agencies should have a united approach; the perception or reality of a fragmented and uncoordinated strategy is unsettling for prospective partners in the appraisal industry. This requires improved communication and education within and among these communities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Lithium-Ion Battery Technologies for Electric Vehicles: Progress and challenges

Electric Vehicle (EV) sales and adoption have seen a significant growth in recent years, thanks to advancements and cost reduction in lithium-ion battery technology, attractive performance of EVs, governments' incentives, and the push to reduce greenhouse gases and pollutants. In this article, we will explore the progress in lithium-ion batteries and their future potential in terms of energy density, life, safety, and extreme fast charge. Here we will also discuss material sourcing, supply chain, and end-of-life-cycle management as they have become important considerations in the ecosystem of batteries for the sustained growth and adoption of EVs. With significant government and private sector investments in research and development, processing, and manufacturing and advances in anodes (lithium and silicon), cathodes (high nickel), designs, supply chain development, and the circularity of lithium-ion batteries, lithium-based batteries are on track to make EVs mainstream, addressing climate concerns of fossil-fueled vehicles.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Critical Infrastructure Decision-Making under Long-Term Climate Hazard Uncertainty: The Need for an Integrated, Multidisciplinary Approach

U.S. critical infrastructure assets are often designed to operate for decades, and yet long-term planning practices have historically ignored climate change. With the current pace of changing operational conditions and severe weather hazards, research is needed to improve our ability to translate complex, uncertain risk assessment data into actionable inputs to improve decision-making for infrastructure planning. Decisions made today need to explicitly account for climate change – the chronic stressors, the evolution of severe weather events, and the wide-ranging uncertainties. If done well, decision making with climate in mind will result in increased resilience and decreased impacts to our lives, economies, and national security. We present a three-tier approach to create the research products needed in this space: bringing together climate projection data, severe weather event modeling, asset-level impacts, and contextspecific decision constraints and requirements. At each step, it is crucial to capture uncertainties and to communicate those uncertainties to decision-makers. While many components of the necessary research are mature (i.e., climate projection data), there has been little effort to develop proven tools for long-term planning in this space. The combination of chronic and acute stressors, spatial and temporal uncertainties, and interdependencies among infrastructure sectors coalesce into a complex decision space. By applying known methods from decision science and data analysis, we can work to demonstrate the value of an interdisciplinary approach to climate-hazard decision making for longterm infrastructure planning.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗