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At least 811 records · Page 45
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

Tracking Pulses of the Madden-Julian Oscillation

An international field campaign aiming at atmospheric and oceanic processes associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was conducted in and around the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) during October 2011 - March 2012. The objective of the field campaign was to collect observations urgently needed to expedite the progress of understanding the key processes of the MJO, focusing on its initiation but also including propagation and maturation, and ultimately to improve skills of numerical simulation and prediction of the MJO. Primary targets of the field campaign include interaction of atmospheric deep convection with its environmental moisture, evolution of cloud populations, and air-sea interaction. Several MJO events were captured by ground-based, airborne, and oceanic instruments with advanced observing technology. Numerical simulations and real-time forecasts were integrated components of the field campaign in its design and operation. Observations collected during the campaign provide unprecedented opportunities to reveal detailed processes of the MJO and to assist evaluation, improvement and development of weather and climate models. The data policy of the campaign encourages the broad research community to use the field observations to advance the MJO study.

madden-julian↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Bimodal Diagnostic Cloud Fraction Parameterization. Part I: Motivating Analysis and Scheme Description

Cloud fraction parameterizations are beneficial to regional, convection-permitting numerical weather prediction. For its operational regional midlatitude forecasts, the Met Office uses a diagnostic cloud fraction scheme that relies on a unimodal, symmetric subgrid saturation-departure distribution. This scheme has been shown before to underestimate cloud cover and hence an empirically based bias correction is used operationally to improve performance. This first of a series of two papers proposes a new diagnostic cloud scheme as a more physically based alternative to the operational bias correction. The new cloud scheme identifies entrainment zones associated with strong temperature inversions. Additionally, for model grid boxes located in this entrainment zone, collocated moist and dry Gaussian modes are used to represent the subgrid conditions. The mean and width of the Gaussian modes, inferred from the turbulent characteristics, are then used to diagnose cloud water content and cloud fraction. It is shown that the new scheme diagnoses enhanced cloud cover for a given gridbox mean humidity, similar to the current operational approach. It does so, however, in a physically meaningful way. Using observed aircraft data and ground-based retrievals over the southern Great Plains in the United States, it is shown that the new scheme improves the relation between cloud fraction, relative humidity, and liquid water content. An emergent property of the scheme is its ability to infer skewed and bimodal distributions from the large-scale state that qualitatively compare well against observations. A detailed evaluation and resolution sensitivity study will follow in Part II.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Wind from Reanalysis Data and Application to Ukraine

With a potentially increasing share of the electricity grid relying on wind to provide generating capacity and energy, there is an expanding global need for historically accurate, spatiotemporally continuous, high-resolution wind data. Conventional downscaling methods for generating these data based on numerical weather prediction have a high computational burden and require extensive tuning for historical accuracy. In this work, we present a novel deep learning-based spatiotemporal downscaling method using generative adversarial networks (GANs) for generating historically accurate high-resolution wind resource data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Reanalysis version 5 data (ERA5). In contrast to previous approaches, which used coarsened high-resolution data as low-resolution training data, we use true low-resolution simulation outputs. We show that by training a GAN model with ERA5 as the low-resolution input and Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit (WTK) data as the high-resolution target, we achieved results comparable in historical accuracy and spatiotemporal variability to conventional dynamical downscaling. This GAN-based downscaling method additionally reduces computational costs over dynamical downscaling by two orders of magnitude. We applied this approach to downscale 30 km, hourly ERA5 data to 2 km, 5 min wind data for January 2000 through December 2023 at multiple hub heights over Ukraine, Moldova, and part of Romania. With WTK coverage limited to North America from 2007–2013, this is a significant spatiotemporal generalization. The geographic extent centered on Ukraine was motivated by stakeholders and energy-planning needs to rebuild the Ukrainian power grid in a decentralized manner. This 24-year data record is the first member of the super-resolution for renewable energy resource data with wind from the reanalysis data dataset (Sup3rWind).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1992

Initial weather regimes as predictors of numerical 30-day mean forecast accuracy

Thirty 30-day mean 500-mb-height anomaly forecasts generated by the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) for the year 1978 are examined in order to determine if the forecast accuracy can be estimated with the initial conditions. The initial weather regimes were defined in such a way that the regimes could discriminate between the best and the worst 30-day mean forecasts run from the initial fields in this data set. On the basis of the CCM experiments, it is suggested that the accuracy of numerical 30-day mean forecasts may depend upon the accuracy with which the cyclones and their interactions with the planetary scale are predicted early in the forecast cycle, and that this accuracy may depend upon the initial conditions.

Colucci, Stephen J.↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U.S. Deep South Summer Convection

Convection-allowing numerical weather simula- tions have often been shown to produce convective storms that have significant sensitivity to choices of model physical parameterizations. Among the most important of these sensitivities are those related to cloud microphysics, but planetary boundary layer parameterizations also have a significant impact on the evolution of the convection. Aspects of the simulated convection that display sensitivity to these physics schemes include updraft size and intensity, simulated radar reflectivity, timing and placement of storm initi- ation and decay, total storm rainfall, and other storm features derived from storm structure and hydrometeor fields, such as predicted lightning flash rates. In addition to the basic parameters listed above, the simulated storms may also exhibit sensitivity to im- posed initial conditions, such as the fields of soil temper- ature and moisture, vegetation cover and health, and sea and lake water surface temperatures. Some of these sensitivities may rival those of the basic physics sensi- tivities mentioned earlier. These sensitivities have the potential to disrupt the accuracy of short-term forecast simulations of convective storms, and thereby pose sig- nificant difficulties for weather forecasters. To make a systematic study of the quantitative impacts of each of these sensitivities, a matrix of simulations has been performed using all combinations of eight separate microphysics schemes, three boundary layer schemes, and two sets of initial conditions. The first version of initial conditions consists of the default data from large-scale operational model fields, while the second features specialized higher- resolution soil conditions, vegetation conditions and water surface temperatures derived from datasets created at NASA's Short-term Prediction and Operational Research Tran- sition (SPoRT) Center at the National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) in Huntsville, AL. Simulations as outlined above, each 48 in number, were conducted for five midsummer weakly sheared coastal convective events each at two sites, Mobile, AL (MOB) and Houston, TX (HGX). Of special interest to operational forecasters at MOB and HGX were accuracy of timing and placement of convective storm initiation, reflectivity magnitudes and coverage, rainfall and inferred lightning threat.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Prognostic Validation of a Neural Network Unified Physics Parameterization

Weather and climate models approximate diabatic and sub-grid-scale processes in terms of grid-scale variables using parameterizations. Current parameterizations are designed by humans based on physical understanding, observations, and process modeling. As a result, they are numerically efficient and interpretable, but potentially oversimplified. However, the advent of global high-resolution simulations and observations enables a more robust approach based on machine learning. In this letter, a neural network-based parameterization is trained using a near-global aqua-planet simulation with a 4-km resolution (NG-Aqua). The neural network predicts the apparent sources of heat and moisture averaged onto (160 km)2 grid boxes. A numerically stable scheme is obtained by minimizing the prediction error over multiple time steps rather than single one. In prognostic single-column model tests, this scheme matches both the fluctuations and equilibrium of NG-Aqua simulation better than the Community Atmosphere Model does.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Identification of Climatological Representative Days in the Mid-Atlantic for High-Fidelity Offshore Wind Energy Modeling

The goal of reaching 30 GW of offshore wind energy by 2030 becomes more realistic with the continued approval of offshore wind energy areas by the Biden Administration. In the Mid-Atlantic, where wind energy projects are in the most advanced stages of development, there is increased research focus on the eventual interaction of these wind farms. These interactions, in the form of wakes and cluster wakes, or wakes from multiple wind farms, could have detrimental effects on power production and forecastability for downwind wind farms (Pryor et al. 2022, Golbazi et al. 2022, Rosencrans et al. 2023). To help alleviate these issues, numerical simulations in the form of numerical weather prediction (NWP) and large eddy simulations (LES) can provide insight into when cluster wake situations may occur, but running such simulations can be expensive and difficult to run for multiple years. In this study, we leverage and build upon existing techniques in the literature (Fischereit et al. 2022) to identify climatologically representative days for wind energy areas in the Mid-Atlantic where conditions would promote cluster wake situations. We select meteorological variables (wind speed, wind direction, atmospheric stability, boundary-layer height, TKE) critical to understanding wind energy production and wake propagation. We then consider two different NWP datasets of varying spatial and temporal resolution: ERA5 provides data at hourly intervals from 1940 to present at 0.25 deg (31 km) spatial resolution (Hersbach et al. 2020), and the NOW-23 dataset provides data at 5-minute resolution for 21 years at 2-km spatial resolution (Bodini et al. 2020). Our first step is to compare these two datasets for an overlapping 21-year time period. Initial results show that the required number of days to represent the long-term climate increases with each additional variable considered. In their study of the German Bight, Fischereit et al. (2022) found that they could represent the long-term wind and wave climate in a "near-perfect" way with -180 days, by reaching a Perkins Skill Score (PSS) of 0.9; our investigation of the mid-Atlantic wind resource region with ERA5 and NOW-23 data suggests that we will need -100 days to reach a PSS of 0.9. As we expand our parameter space to include multiple variables, the number of required days will likely grow. These results will ultimately be used to select case studies to best represent cluster wake conditions that apply to this region for the lifetime of likely wind farms in this mid-Atlantic region.

clusterwakes↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact Assessment of All-Sky TROPICS Microwave Observations on the NASA GEOS Analyses and Forecasts and Progress to Use the Data in the JEDI-GEOS Analysis System

The NASA Time-Resolved Observations of Precipitation structure and storm Intensity with a Constellation of Smallsats (TROPICS) mission is a constellation of small satellites carrying state-of-art microwave temperature and humidity sounders with 12 channels between 91 GHz and 205 GHz frequency. Including TROPICS-pathfinder, launched on 30 June 2021, five TROPICS CubeSats operate and provide temperature and humidity data to NWP and atmospheric retrieval communities. This study is dedicated to evaluating the impact of the TROPICS satellite constellation microwave observations in numerical weather prediction (NWP) using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS). The TROPICS-01 (TROPICS-Pathfinder), TROPICS-03, TROPICS-05, and TROPICS-06 data in all-sky conditions over the ocean during the period of 25 July 2023 and 6 September 2023 are used for assessing forecast impacts on global NWP analysis and five-day forecasts. A series of experiments are carried out to measure the benefits of assimilating observations from only temperature sounders, water vapor sounders, and both sounders. Statistical analysis of the Observing System Experiments (OSEs) results has shown incremental improvements in global model forecast skills for critical geophysical parameters, including temperature, winds, and geopotential heights. The results demonstrate the potential of the TROPICS-like data to positively impact NWP by adding new information to the current observation and forecast system. In another set of experiments, the TROPICS-03, TROPICS-05, and TROPICS-06 data sets are added to the TROPICS-01 one by one to evaluate the impacts of increasing the revisit rate of TROPICS satellite measurements on NWP analysis for a tropical cyclone’s dynamical and microphysical structures. This study offers important insights into the capabilities of a new generation of small satellite microwave radiometers based on emerging technologies, including their unique measurements at 118 GHz and 205 GHz that are not available in traditional operational microwave sounders. Finally, the efforts to implement these new developments for TROPICS in the JEDI-GEOS atmospheric data assimilation system are in progress, and preliminary results from cycled JEDI-GEOS data assimilation experiments are presented.

Min-Jeong Kim↗
NASA NTRS1992

Modelling the Phanerozoic carbon cycle and climate - Constraints from the Sr-87/Sr-86 isotopic ratio of seawater

A numerical model is developed for simulating the long-term changes of atmospheric CO2 and climate during the Phanerozoic. The model describes the coupled evolution of the biogeochemical cycles of C, S, Ca, Mg, P, and Sr, with the emphasis on the effect of coupling the cycles of carbon and strontium and on interpreting the observed seawater Sr-87/Sr-86 ratios. The abilities of continental weathering, volcanism, and surface lithology in generating that signal are tested and compared. The results obtained are used to reconstruct a history of atmospheric CO2 and climate during Phanerozoic time, consistent with the strontium isotopic data. It is shown that the predicted history is compatible with paleoclimatic indicators, such as the timing of glaciation and the estimates of Cretaceous paleotemperatures.

Francois, Louis M.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Spatial modeling of daily concentrations of ground-level ozone in Montreal, Canada: A comparison of geostatistical approaches

Highlights: • The KED model with road and vegetation density as covariates showed good performance for all six synoptic classes. • The model using KED demonstrated the best results (R{sup 2} = 0.92; RMSE = 3.14 ppb). • The model using OK demonstrated a R{sup 2} = 0.85 and RMSE = 4 ppb. • Our results showed that errors appear to be substantially reduced with the KED model. • When measurements at numerous monitoring stations in a region are available, it may be better to use KED. • The BME may be more useful for prediction when data is not available. Ground-level ozone (O{sub 3}) is a powerful oxidizing agent and a harmful pollutant affecting human health, forests and crops. Estimating O{sub 3} exposure is a challenge because it exhibits complex spatiotemporal patterns. The aim in this study was to provide high-resolution maps (100 × 100 m) of O{sub 3} for the metropolitan area of Montreal, Canada. We assessed the kriging with external drift (KED) model to estimate O{sub 3} concentration by synoptic weather classes for 2010. We compared these results with ordinary kriging (OK), and a simple average of 12 monitoring stations. We also compared the estimates obtained for the 2010 summer with those from a Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) model reported in the literature (Adam-Poupart et al., 2014). The KED model with road and vegetation density as covariates showed good performance for all six synoptic classes (daily R{sup 2} estimates ranging from 0.77 to 0.92 and RMSE from 2.79 to 3.37 ppb). For the summer of 2010, the model using KED demonstrated the best results (R{sup 2} = 0.92; RMSE = 3.14 ppb), followed by the OK model (R{sup 2} = 0.85, RMSE = 4 ppb). Our results showed that errors appear to be substantially reduced with the KED model. This may increase our capacity of linking O{sub 3} levels to health problems by means of improved assessments of ambient exposures. However, future work integrating the temporal dependency in the data is needed to not overstate the performance of the KED model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning Forecasts of Rare Stratospheric Transitions from Short Simulations

Abstract Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Approximately once every other winter, the boreal stratospheric polar vortex rapidly breaks down, shifting midlatitude surface weather patterns for months. We focus on two key quantities of interest: the probability of an SSW occurring, and the expected lead time if it does occur, as functions of initial condition. These optimal forecasts concretely measure the event’s progress. Direct numerical simulation can estimate them in principle but is prohibitively expensive in practice: each rare event requires a long integration to observe, and the cost of each integration grows with model complexity. We describe an alternative approach using integrations that are short compared to the time scale of the warming event. We compute the probability and lead time efficiently by solving equations involving the transition operator, which encodes all information about the dynamics. We relate these optimal forecasts to a small number of interpretable physical variables, suggesting optimal measurements for forecasting. We illustrate the methodology on a prototype SSW model developed by Holton and Mass and modified by stochastic forcing. While highly idealized, this model captures the essential nonlinear dynamics of SSWs and exhibits the key forecasting challenge: the dramatic separation in time scales between a single event and the return time between successive events. Our methodology is designed to fully exploit high-dimensional data from models and observations, and has the potential to identify detailed predictors of many complex rare events in meteorology.

Finkel, Justin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using Models to Predict the Hygrothermal Performance of Equipment and Piping Insulation

The development of hygrothermal models began in earnest in the 1990s, with the initial emphasis on the performance of building envelope systems. Numerous large-scale building envelope failures associated with water intrusion drove this development. The physical principles of moisture transfer that apply to building envelopes are equally valid for equipment and piping insulation systems. The main advantage of modeling is that carefully characterized models can predict the long-term hygrothermal performance of any system under different climatic and interior conditions. Thermal insulations are commonly used on outdoor equipment and piping for different applications, such as thermal energy conservation and freeze protection. The insulated equipment usually experiences moisture intrusion due to many factors, such as the duration and frequency of moisture exposure, equipment operating temperature, insulation type, exposure temperature, weather conditions, equipment thermal cycling, and weatherproofing condition. Hygrothermal models have been employed to estimate the moisture pickup of insulated equipment and piping systems, as well as the moisture redistribution and subsequent change in thermal performance as these systems become contaminated with moisture. The hygrothermal model provides insights on the parameters influencing the time of wetness, the lateral redistribution of moisture along the pipe away from the leak, and the ease by which water escapes the insulation/jacketing systems. It has been shown that the moisture leak effect decreases rapidly with distance from the leak and that one- and two-dimensional hygrothermal simulations help to identify solutions to reduce conditions that support corrosion under insulation (CUI).

Shrestha, Som↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Impact of Urbanization on the Precipitation Component of the Water Cycle: A New Perspective

It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). As cities continue to grow, urban sprawl (e.g., the expansion of urban surfaces outward into rural surroundings) creates unique problems related to land use, transportation, agriculture, housing, pollution, and development. Urban expansion also has measurable impacts on environmental processes. Urban areas modify boundary layer processes through the creation of an urban heat island (UHI). The literature indicates that the signature of the urban heat island effect may be resolvable in rainfall patterns over and downwind of metropolitan areas. However, a recent U.S. Weather Research Program panel concluded that more observational and modeling research is needed in this area (Dabberdt et al. 2000). NASA and other agencies initiated programs such as the Atlanta Land-use Analysis: Temperature and Air Quality Project (ATLANTA) (Quattrochi et al. 1998) which aimed to identify and understand how urban heat islands impact the environment. However, a comprehensive assessment of the role of urban-induced rainfall in the global water and energy cycle (GWEC) and cycling of freshwater was not a primary focus of these efforts. NASA's Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) seeks to develop a scientific understanding of the Earth system and its response to natural or human-induced changes to enable improved prediction capability for climate, weather, and natural hazards (NASA, 2000). Within this mission, the ESE has three basic thrusts: science research to increase Earth system knowledge; an applications program to transfer science knowledge to practical use in society; and a technology program to enable new, better, and cheaper capabilities for observing the earth. Within this framework, a research program is underway to further address the co-relationship between land cover use and change (e.g. urban development) and its impact on key components of the GWEC (e.g., precipitation). This presentation discusses the feasibility of using the TRMM or GPM satellite to identify precipitation anomalies likely caused by urbanization (Shepherd et al. 2002). Recent results from analyses of TRMM data around several major U.S. cities (e.g. Dallas, Atlanta, Houston) will be discussed. The presentation also summarizes a NASA-funded research effort to investigate the phenomenon of urban-induced precipitation anomalies using TRMM (future GPM) satellite-based remote sensing, an intensive ground observation/validation effort near Atlanta, and coupled atmosphere-land numerical modeling techniques.

Shephard, J. Marshal↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Review of Recent and Emerging Machine Learning Applications for Climate Variability and Weather Phenomena

Abstract Climate variability and weather phenomena can cause extremes and pose significant risk to society and ecosystems, making continued advances in our physical understanding of such events of utmost importance for regional and global security. Advances in machine learning (ML) have been leveraged for applications in climate variability and weather, empowering scientists to approach questions using big data in new ways. Growing interest across the scientific community in these areas has motivated coordination between the physical and computer science disciplines to further advance the state of the science and tackle pressing challenges. During a recently held workshop that had participants across academia, private industry, and research laboratories, it became clear that a comprehensive review of recent and emerging ML applications for climate variability and weather phenomena that can cause extremes was needed. This article aims to fulfill this need by discussing recent advances, challenges, and research priorities in the following topics: sources of predictability for modes of climate variability, feature detection, extreme weather and climate prediction and precursors, observation–model integration, downscaling, and bias correction. This article provides a review for domain scientists seeking to incorporate ML into their research. It also provides a review for those with some ML experience seeking to broaden their knowledge of ML applications for climate variability and weather.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assimilation of Reconstructed Radiances from IASI Principal Component Scores into the GEOS-ADAS

Hyperspectral Infrared sounders such as IASI, AIRS, and CrIS have long been an integral part of radiance assimilation in numerical weather prediction (NWP), providing vertical profiles of water vapor and temperature information. Principal Component Scores (PCS) are a lossy form of compression that retains most information, such as temperature and moisture, by using a large training set of atmospheric profiles. However, PCS may not well represent profiles which are rare events, such as volcanic eruptions, and drops some sources of random noise. There has been an increased interest in the use of PCS as EUMETSAT plans to distribute future geostationary sounder radiances from MTG-IRS via PCS only. NWP centers use two approaches to deal with PCS: direct assimilation of the PCS by modifying the radiative transfer model to produce PCS and the associated Jacobians, or a simpler approach of decompressing the PCS and reconstructing the radiances back into channel space to allow assimilating radiances without modifications to the data assimilation system. EUMETSAT has developed a PCS product for IASI that has been operational since 2011. We utilize this product opting for the simpler approach, decompressing IASI PCS into channel space, and assimilating those radiances using the GEOS-ADAS. We then compare this with a control using the standard IASI radiance product. Resulting differences in global forecast statistics, differences in Forecast Sensitivity to Observation Impact, along with implications for implementation and quality control are discussed.

Bryan M. Karpowicz↗
NASA NTRS2012

Data Assimilation of Photosynthetic Light-use Efficiency using Multi-angular Satellite Data: II Model Implementation and Validation

Spatially explicit and temporally continuous estimates of photosynthesis will be of great importance for increasing our understanding of and ultimately closing the terrestrial carbon cycle. Current capabilities to model photosynthesis, however, are limited by accurate enough representations of the complexity of the underlying biochemical processes and the numerous environmental constraints imposed upon plant primary production. A potentially powerful alternative to model photosynthesis through these indirect observations is the use of multi-angular satellite data to infer light-use efficiency (ε) directly from spectral reflectance properties in connection with canopy shadow fractions. Hall et al. (this issue) introduced a new approach for predicting gross ecosystem production that would allow the use of such observations in a data assimilation mode to obtain spatially explicit variations in ε from infrequent polar-orbiting satellite observations, while meteorological data are used to account for the more dynamic responses of ε to variations in environmental conditions caused by changes in weather and illumination. In this second part of the study we implement and validate the approach of Hall et al. (this issue) across an ecologically diverse array of eight flux-tower sites in North America using data acquired from the Compact High Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (CHRIS) and eddy-flux observations. Our results show significantly enhanced estimates of ε and therefore cumulative gross ecosystem production (GEP) over the course of one year at all examined sites. We also demonstrate that ε is greatly heterogeneous even across small study areas. Data assimilation and direct inference of GEP from space using a new, proposed sensor could therefore be a significant step towards closing the terrestrial carbon cycle.

Hilker, Thomas↗
DOE OSTI2024

Learning nonlinear operators in latent spaces for real-time predictions of complex dynamics in physical systems

Abstract Predicting complex dynamics in physical applications governed by partial differential equations in real-time is nearly impossible with traditional numerical simulations due to high computational cost. Neural operators offer a solution by approximating mappings between infinite-dimensional Banach spaces, yet their performance degrades with system size and complexity. We propose an approach for learning neural operators in latent spaces, facilitating real-time predictions for highly nonlinear and multiscale systems on high-dimensional domains. Our method utilizes the deep operator network architecture on a low-dimensional latent space to efficiently approximate underlying operators. Demonstrations on material fracture, fluid flow prediction, and climate modeling highlight superior prediction accuracy and computational efficiency compared to existing methods. Notably, our approach enables approximating large-scale atmospheric flows with millions of degrees, enhancing weather and climate forecasts. Here we show that the proposed approach enables real-time predictions that can facilitate decision-making for a wide range of applications in science and engineering.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evidence for the 3D Radiative Effects of Boundary-Layer Clouds From Observations of Direct and Diffuse Surface Solar Fluxes

Numerical experiments have revealed the importance of horizontal transport of light in the presence of clouds (“3D effects”), with consequences for climate, weather, and solar resource availability predictions. Yet, analysis of 3D effects from observations remain sparse because of the difficulty to isolate the effect of horizontal transport in radiation measurements. In this study, we provide observational evidence for 3D effects based on the direct-diffuse partition of surface solar fluxes. It is compared to outputs from the ecRad radiative transfer scheme run on retrieved cloud profiles. Furthermore, the direct-beam calculation takes careful account of the field-of-view of the pyrheliometer to ensure consistency between observed and modeled direct fluxes. Only the solver that accounts for 3D effects is able to reproduce the observed mean direct-diffuse partition as a function of solar zenith angle and cloud cover, in particular at large solar zenith angles where cloud sides intercept most of the direct beam.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗