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At least 811 records · Page 45

Technology Alignment and Portfolio Prioritization (TAPP): Advanced Methods in Strategic Analysis, Technology Forecasting and Long Term Planning for Human Exploration and Operations, Advanced Exploration Systems and Advanced Concepts

The Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA, Marshall Space Flight Center is expanding its current technology assessment methodologies. ACO is developing a framework called TAPP that uses a variety of methods, such as association mining and rule learning from data mining, structure development using a Technological Innovation System (TIS), and social network modeling to measure structural relationships. The role of ACO is to 1) produce a broad spectrum of ideas and alternatives for a variety of NASA's missions, 2) determine mission architecture feasibility and appropriateness to NASA's strategic plans, and 3) define a project in enough detail to establish an initial baseline capable of meeting mission objectives ACO's role supports the decision­-making process associated with the maturation of concepts for traveling through, living in, and understanding space. ACO performs concept studies and technology assessments to determine the degree of alignment between mission objectives and new technologies. The first step in technology assessment is to identify the current technology maturity in terms of a technology readiness level (TRL). The second step is to determine the difficulty associated with advancing a technology from one state to the next state. NASA has used TRLs since 1970 and ACO formalized them in 1995. The DoD, ESA, Oil & Gas, and DoE have adopted TRLs as a means to assess technology maturity. However, "with the emergence of more complex systems and system of systems, it has been increasingly recognized that TRL assessments have limitations, especially when considering [the] integration of complex systems." When performing the second step in a technology assessment, NASA requires that an Advancement Degree of Difficulty (AD2) method be utilized. NASA has used and developed or used a variety of methods to perform this step: Expert Opinion or Delphi Approach, Value Engineering or Value Stream, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for the Order of Prioritization by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and other multi­‐criteria decision-making methods. These methods can be labor-intensive, often contain cognitive or parochial bias, and do not consider the competing prioritization between mission architectures. Strategic Decision-Making (SDM) processes cannot be properly understood unless the context of the technology is understood. This makes assessing technological change particularly challenging due to the relationships "between incumbent technology and the incumbent (innovation) system in relation to the emerging technology and the emerging innovation system." The central idea in technology dynamics is to consider all activities that contribute to the development, diffusion, and use of innovations as system functions. Bergek defines system functions within a TIS to address what is actually happening and has a direct influence on the ultimate performance of the system and technology development. ACO uses similar metrics and is expanding these metrics to account for the structure and context of the technology. At NASA technology and strategy is strongly interrelated. NASA's Strategic Space Technology Investment Plan (SSTIP) prioritizes those technologies essential to the pursuit of NASA's missions and national interests. The SSTIP is strongly coupled with NASA's Technology Roadmaps to provide investment guidance during the next four years, within a twenty-year horizon. This paper discusses the methods ACO is currently developing to better perform technology assessments while taking into consideration Strategic Alignment, Technology Forecasting, and Long Term Planning.

Funaro, Gregory V.↗

Scheduler Design Criteria: Requirements and Considerations

This presentation covers fundamental requirements and considerations for developing schedulers in airport operations. We first introduce performance and functional requirements for airport surface schedulers. Among various optimization problems in airport operations, we focus on airport surface scheduling problem, including runway and taxiway operations. We then describe a basic methodology for airport surface scheduling such as node-link network model and scheduling algorithms previously developed. Next, we explain how to design a mathematical formulation in more details, which consists of objectives, decision variables, and constraints. Lastly, we review other considerations, including optimization tools, computational performance, and performance metrics for evaluation.

NASA-KAIA/KARI research collaboration↗

Superthermal Electron Energy Interchange in the Ionosphere-Plasmasphere System

A self-consistent approach to superthermal electron (SE) transport along closed field lines in the inner magnetosphere is used to examine the concept of plasmaspheric transparency, magnetospheric trapping, and SE energy deposition to the thermal electrons. The dayside SE population is generated both by photoionization of the thermosphere and by secondary electron production from impact ionization when the photoelectrons collide with upper atmospheric neutral particles. It is shown that a self-consistent approach to this problem produces significant changes, in comparison with other approaches, in the SE energy exchange between the plasmasphere and the two magnetically conjugate ionospheres. In particular, plasmaspheric transparency can vary by a factor of two depending on the thermal plasma content along the field line and the illumination conditions of the two conjugate ionospheres. This variation in plasmaspheric transparency as a function of thermal plasma and ionospheric conditions increases with L-shell, as the field line gets longer and the equatorial pitch angle extent of the fly-through zone gets smaller. The inference drawn from these results is that such a self-consistent approach to SE transport and energy deposition should be included to ensure robustness in ionosphere-magnetosphere modeling networks.

Heliophysics↗

Taxi-Out Time Prediction for Departures at Charlotte Airport Using Machine Learning Techniques

Predicting the taxi-out times of departures accurately is important for improving airport efficiency and takeoff time predictability. In this paper, we attempt to apply machine learning techniques to actual traffic data at Charlotte Douglas International Airport for taxi-out time prediction. To find the key factors affecting aircraft taxi times, surface surveillance data is first analyzed. From this data analysis, several variables, including terminal concourse, spot, runway, departure fix and weight class, are selected for taxi time prediction. Then, various machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural networks model are applied to actual flight data. Different traffic flow and weather conditions at Charlotte airport are also taken into account for more accurate prediction. The taxi-out time prediction results show that linear regression and random forest techniques can provide the most accurate prediction in terms of root-mean-square errors. We also discuss the operational complexity and uncertainties that make it difficult to predict the taxi times accurately.

Safe and efficient surface operations↗

Interplanetary Supply Chain Risk Management

Emphasis on KSC ground processing operations, reduced spares up-mass lift requirements and campaign-level flexible path perspective for space systems support as Regolith-based ISM is achieved by; Network modeling for sequencing space logistics and in-space logistics nodal positioning to include feedstock. Economic modeling to assess ISM 3D printing adaption and supply chain risk.

Galluzzi, Michael C.↗

Estuarine Dissolved Organic Carbon Flux from Space: With Application to Chesapeake and Delaware Bays

This study uses a neural network model trained with in situ data, combined with satellite data and hydrodynamic model products, to compute the daily estuarine export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) at the mouths of Chesapeake Bay (CB) and Delaware Bay (DB) from 2007 to 2011. Both bays show large flux variability with highest fluxes in spring and lowest in fall as well as interannual flux variability (0.18 and 0.27 Tg C/year in 2008 and 2010 for CB; 0.04 and 0.09 Tg C/year in 2008 and 2011 for DB). Based on previous estimates of total organic carbon (TOCexp) exported by all Mid-Atlantic Bight estuaries (1.2 Tg C/year), the DOC export (CB + DB) of 0.3 Tg C/year estimated here corresponds to 25% of the TOCexp. Spatial and temporal covariations of velocity and DOC concentration provide contributions to the flux, with larger spatial influence. Differences in the discharge of fresh water into the bays (74 billion m(exp3)/year for CB and 21 billion m9exp3)/year for DB) and their geomorphologies are major drivers of the differences in DOC fluxes for these two systems. Terrestrial DOC inputs are similar to the export of DOC at the bay mouths at annual and longer time scales but diverge significantly at shorter time scales (days to months). Future efforts will expand to the Mid-Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Maine, and its major rivers and estuaries, in combination with coupled terrestrial-estuarine-ocean biogeochemical models that include effects of climate change, such as warming and CO2 increase.

Signorini, Sergio↗

Automatically Finding Ship-Tracks to Enable Large-Scale Analysis of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions

Ship tracks appear as long winding linear features in satellite images and are produced by aerosols from ship exhausts changing low cloud properties. They are one of the best examples of aerosol‐cloud interaction experiments. However, manually finding ship tracks from satellite data on a large scale is prohibitively costly while a large number of samples are required to improve our understanding. Here we train a deep neural network to automate finding ship tracks. The neural network model generalizes well as it not only finds ship tracks labeled by human experts but also detects those that are occasionally missed by humans. It finds more ship tracks than all previous studies combined and produces a map of ship track distributions off the California coast that matches well with known shipping traffic. Our technique will enable studying aerosol effects on low clouds using ship tracks on a large scale, which will potentially narrow the uncertainty of the aerosol‐cloud interactions.

aerosol cloud interactions↗

High-Resolution Mid-Infrared Molecular Line Survey of the Orion Hot Core

The basic building blocks of life are synthesized in space as part of the natural stellar evolutionary cycle, whereby elements ejected into the interstellar medium by dying stars are incorporated back into the dense clouds, which form the next generation of stars and planets. The formation of stars and planets are fundamental to the evolution of matter in the Universe as complex molecules are created and destroyed during this step. Understanding these processes will allow us to answer “What is the relation between the molecules we see in the ISM and the molecular inventory of Earth and the terrestrial planets in the Solar System?” Measuring and cataloging the inventory of organic molecules and understanding their evolution requires observations over a broad wavelength range (IR, MIR, FIR, (sub)mm, and radio) to cover all stages of this evolutionary cycle needed to link interstellar material to that delivered to planets. High-resolution molecular line surveys provide chemical inventories for star forming regions and are essential for studying their chemistry, kinematics and physical conditions. Previous high spectral resolution surveys have been limited to radio, sub-mm and FIR wavelengths; however, Mid-infrared observations are the only way to study symmetric molecules that have no dipole moment and thus cannot be detected in the (sub)mm line surveys from ALMA. Past midinfrared missions such as ISO and Spitzer had low to moderate resolving power that were only able to link broad features with particular molecular bands and could not resolve the individual rovibrational transitions. JWST will provide exceptional sensitivity in the MIR, but will also not have sufficient spectral resolution, which can lead to confusion in identifying the contribution from strong to moderate strength molecular species. We present new results from an on-going high resolution (R ~ 60,000) line survey of the Orion hot core between 12.5 - 28.3 μm and 7 - 8 μm, using the EXES instrument on the SOFIA airborne observatory. SOFIA's higher-resolution and smaller beam compared to ISO allows us to spatially and spectrally isolate the emission towards the hot core. This survey will provide the best infrared measurements (to date) of molecular column densities and physical conditions, providing strong constraints on the current chemical network models for star forming regions. This survey will greatly enhance the inventory of resolved line features in the MIR, making it an invaluable reference to be used by the JWST and ALMA scientific communities.

Rangwala, Naseem↗

Identifying Planetary Transit Candidates in TESS Full-frame Image Light Curves via Convolutional Neural Networks

The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite(TESS)mission measured light from stars in∼75% of the sky throughout its 2 yr primary mission, resulting in millions of TESS 30-minute-cadence light curves to analyze in the search for transiting exoplanets. To search this vast data trove for transit signals, we aim to provide an approach that both is computationally efficient and produces highly performant predictions. This approach minimizes the required human search effort. We present a convolutional neural network, which we train to identify planetary transit signals and dismiss false positives. To make a prediction for a given light curve, our network requires no prior transit parameters identified using other methods. Our network performs inference on a TESS 30-minute-cadence light curve in∼5 ms on a single GPU, enabling large-scale archival searches. We present 181 new planet candidates identified by our network, which pass subsequent human vetting designed to rule out false positives.Our neural network model is additionally provided as open-source code for public use and extension

Gregory Olmschenk↗

A 2D Kaleidoscope of Electron Heat Fluxes Driven by Auroral Electron Precipitation

Electron heat flux is an important value for ionospheric space weather modeling networks. Utilizing the 2D array of Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms all-sky-imager (ASI) observations, Gabrielse et al. (2021, https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2021.744298) described a new method that estimates the auroral scale sizes of intense precipitating electron energy fluxes and their mean energies during two substorms on 16 February 2010. These parameters in combination with SuperThermal Electron Transport code were used to develop a new methodology to calculate electron thermal fluxes from data inputs in 2D during one of the substorms at 09:40:00 UT across Canada and Alaska. To test the effect of various precipitation lifetimes on electron heat flux values, boxcar averages ranging from 0 to 900 s were applied to the ASI data. These data are then combined with the newly developed kinetic simulation to determine the thermal fluxes associated with the observed diffuse and discrete precipitation.

Electron precipitation in aurora↗

Scaling Electric Machines to a Megawatt and Material Options

Megawatt (MW) electric aircraft propulsion (EAP) is seen as a significant contributor toward achieving the goals set forth by the Sustainable Flight National Partnership. A large part of enabling MW EAP is developing specific-power-dense electric machines. As specific-power-dense electric machines are scaled up from kW to MW power levels, the thermal stresses on the machines increase in both magnitude and performance-affecting characteristics. This is particularly true for the stators of these machines. Analysis via thermal resistance network modeling and multiscale modeling reveals that increasing amounts of heat will be trapped in the stator windings as the power levels increase. The challenges this presents can be addressed through material advancements whereby materials gain multifunctionality. Specifically, the electrical insulation and potting materials, along with the electrical conductor, that compose the stator slot must work together (gain multifunctionality) to relieve the increased thermal stress. Materials research at the NASA Glenn Research Center points to some useful solutions in this trade space.

Electric Machine↗

Scaling Electric Machines to a Megawatt and Material Options

Megawatt (MW) electric aircraft propulsion (EAP) is seen as a significant contributor toward achieving the goals set forth by the Sustainable Flight National Partnership. A large part of enabling MW EAP is developing specific-power-dense electric machines. As specific-power-dense electric machines are scaled up from kW to MW power levels, the thermal stresses on the machines increase in both magnitude and performance-affecting characteristics. This is particularly true for the stators of these machines. Analysis via thermal resistance network modeling and multiscale modeling reveals that increasing amounts of heat will be trapped in the stator windings as the power levels increase. The challenges this presents can be addressed through material advancements whereby materials gain multifunctionality. Specifically, the electrical insulation and potting materials, along with the electrical conductor, that compose the stator slot must work together (gain multifunctionality) to relieve the increased thermal stress. Materials research at the NASA Glenn Research Center points to some useful solutions in this trade space.

Electric Machine↗

Probabilistic Forecasting of Ground Magnetic Perturbation Spikes at Mid-Latitude Stations

The prediction of large fluctuations in the ground magnetic field (dB/dt) is essential for preventing damage from Geomagnetically Induced Currents. Directly forecasting these fluctuations has proven difficult, but accurately determining the risk of extreme events can allow for the worst of the damage to be prevented. Here we trained Convolutional Neural Network models for eight mid-latitude magnetometers to predict the probability that dB/dt will exceed the 99th percentile threshold 30–60 min in the future. Two model frameworks were compared, a model trained using solar wind data from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite, and another model trained on both ACE and SuperMAG ground magnetometer data. The models were compared to examine if the addition of current ground magnetometer data significantly improved the forecasts of dB/dt in the future prediction window. A bootstrapping method was employed using a random split of the training and validation data to provide a measure of uncertainty in model predictions. The models were evaluated on the ground truth data during eight geomagnetic storms and a suite of evaluation metrics are presented. The models were also compared to a persistence model to ensure that the model using both datasets did not over-rely on dB/dt values in making its predictions. Overall, we find that the models using both the solar wind and ground magnetometer data had better metric scores than the solar wind only and persistence models, and was able to capture more spatially localized variations in the dB/dt threshold crossings.

Michael Coughlan↗

Runtime Thread-Block Optimization for Custom Multistream CUDA Kernels for the Glenn Research Center Communication Analysis Suite

In preparation of the return of humans to the Moon with the coming Artemis missions, NASA scientists must evaluate proposed landing site locations for terrain and communications viability. The Glenn Research Center Communication Analysis Suite (GCAS) combines sophisticated communication network models with accurate lunar terrain to access sites across the Moon’s south pole. Given the importance of proper site selection to crew safety and mission success, many locations need to be analyzed resulting in a large computational load needing to be performed. To meet the growing project demands, development has begun to improve the runtime efficiency of GCAS with GPU parallelization by way of multi-stream CUDA kernels. One of the most prominent factors in kernel optimization is the proper selection of thread-block dimensions in order to maximize the concurrent operation on the device. Typically, thread-block dimensions are optimized by hand requiring many stages of benchmarking and iteration. Additionally, given the main conditions to optimization are the physical GPU architecture and problem size, these optimal dimensions are non-portable and fragile in their scope. As such, a novel optimization routine was developed to generate the optimal thread-block dimensions during runtime with considerations to hardware specifications and problem size resolving the issues of portability and enabling the function of more dynamic routines.

Aden Bergstresser↗

Cities Topology - Curbs and Parking

Curbside activity has not traditionally been represented in transportation network modeling in high fidelity. Growing demand for curbside mean that prevailing practices are becoming increasingly untenable. Through outreach to expert practitioners, we established the state-of-practice and needs for quantitative modeling. We proposed a new modeling framework to allow curbspace managers to make optimal decisions about space allocation between legacy and emerging uses. Proposed future work will take the proposed approach and refine it to be suitable for standardized use by practitioners – to facilitate mobility and energy optimization through smart curbside management.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Technoeconomic Benefits of Film-Forming Amine Products Applied to Steam Surface Condensers

In a conventional Rankine cycle, the majority of power plants employ surface condensers that use pumped cooling water to reject heat from the cycle. In such cases, heat rejection occurs in a shell and tube heat exchanger by film-wise condensation of low-pressure steam on stainless steel, titanium, brass, or copper-nickel tubing. To improve the thermal performance of steam surface condensers, a replenishable film-forming substance (FFS) can be ap-plied to the condenser tubing to promote efficient dropwise condensation. Conventionally, film-forming amine prod-uct (FFAP) coatings protect boiler surfaces from oxidative corrosion, which substantially reduces the operation and maintenance costs. To quantify the technical and economic benefits of FFAP coatings applied to condenser tubing due to the promotion of dropwise condensation, a thermal resistance network model was established. Using a rep-resentative steam surface condenser, the improvements in thermal performance (overall heat transfer coefficient) and process parameters (net plant efficiency, cooling water flowrate, and turbine backpressure) were determined due to the enhancement in the condensation heat transfer coefficient. Experimentally measured condensation heat transfer coefficients for common condenser materials were compared with the modeling results and were found to be within attainable bounds. Lastly, the trend in total heat exchanger cost reduction is generalized to understand the trade-off between reduced surface area for heat rejection and increase in coating application costs for a re-plenishable coating system.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Recent Developments at the Raft River Geothermal Field

The Raft River geothermal field, located in Cassia County in southwestern Idaho, is the site of a Department of Energy Enhanced Geothermal System project. U.S. Geothermal, Inc. currently produces about 11 MWe from Precambrian metamorphic rocks. These lie beneath ~5,000 ft of Quaternary and Tertiary volcaniclastic and volcanic deposits. Maximum temperatures range from 271°F to 300°F. Well RRG-9 ST1, the well targeted for stimulation is located approximately 1 mile south of the main bore field. The open hole section of the well, from 5,551 to 5,900 ft MD, consists of Precambrian Elba Quartzite, the stimulation target, granite and minor diabase. Prior to setting the casing acoustic, gamma ray, and density logs were run. After completing the well, a step rate/step down test was conducted. The maximum injection rate achieved was 18 bpm at a wellhead pressure of 1,150 psig. A borehole televiewer run in the open hole section showed evidence of more than eighty fractures. The majority of these fractures trend from N20⁰W to N20°E and dip from 40° to 60°W. Permeable fractures were encountered in the Elba Quartzite at 5,640-5,660 ft MD. Analysis of the injection test indicates that the minimum in-situ principal stress in this zone is 3,050-3,200 psi, corresponding to a fracture gradient of 0.59-0.62 psi/ft. A discrete fracture network model was developed using measured and inferred fracture orientations, distributions and dimensions. A three-phase stimulation program is proposed for RRG-9 ST-1. During the first two stages, water at 140°F, and later 40°F, will be injected to pre-condition and thermally fracture the reservoir. Here, the third stage will consist of a high rate, large volume conventional hydraulic stimulation.

Bradford, Jacob↗