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Long-Term Health Metric Development Effort

INTRODUCTION Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a methodology applied when high-stakes decisions need to be made about complex systems. PRA often uses risk minimization to aid decision making, such as when establishing vehicle requirements or resource allocations. The NASA Human System Risk Board (HSRB) maintains the human spaceflight risk postures, many of which have in-mission medical outcomes, but the full risk set also includes performance and Long-Term Health (LTH) outcomes. An effort is underway to determine the dependencies between LTH risk outcomes and mission characteristics and to identify metrics for quantifying LTH outcomes. The LTH metrics will be incorporated into future PRA tools currently under development to support crew health and performance decision making. LONG-TERM HEALTH (LTH) RISK LTH risk encompasses the timeframe from immediately post-flight, through the rest of an astronaut’s career, through retirement, and until death. LTH outcomes include the time and interventions needed for the astronaut to return to preflight physiological states after experiencing spaceflight hazards and recovery from any in-mission medical events that persist into the post-flight timeframe. It includes chronic complications that may arise due to experiencing in-flight medical conditions or injuries and medical conditions that occur later in life with a higher probability of occurrence or with more severity because of their spaceflight exposure. Finally, LTH outcomes can also include a reduction in life expectancy due to spaceflight exposures. Eighteen of the HSRB risks contain an LTH component, each with a unique incidence rate and consequence severity. ON-GOING LTH METRIC DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS Based on guidance from a stakeholder workshop held on June 1, 2023, only LTH outcomes with causes tied to spaceflight experience that are significantly different from normal healthy aging and which can be affected by changes in in-mission resources are targeted for inclusion within the PRA modeling efforts. Current on-going efforts include a sensitivity analysis of potential in-flight medical conditions to determine which conditions may persist into post-flight and how the consequences may be affected by in-mission medical resources. Also underway is determination of differences in the time for a return to preflight physiological baselines when in-flight countermeasures are available versus when they are not. Analyses performed with publicly available astronaut data and collaborations with the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health team are being designed to understand which LTH outcomes differ significantly from natural healthy aging. Information exchanges are also occurring with LTH risk custodians to understand how they quantify outcomes. FUTURE PLANS Risk characteristics will be determined for each LTH risk that meets our inclusion criteria and the dependencies of their outcomes to in-mission resources and mission characteristics will be established. The individual risks will be integrated together into one or more high level LTH metrics for inclusion in the PRA tool, so that LTH risks can be considered along with in-mission risks during crew health and performance system decision support trade studies.

B. E. Lewandowski↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Seyfert II nature of the IRAS source FSC 10214+4724

We have observed the rest-frame optical and UV spectra of the luminous, high redshift Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) source FSC 10214+4724. We find the optical emission lines to be characterized by ratios similar to those found in Seyfert II galaxies. We support the conclusion of previous work that the UV emission lines are similar to those attributed to Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) rather than to star formation. The ratio H alpha/H beta greater than or equal to 20 (2 sigma lower limit) implies substantial reddening of the narrow line region with A(sub V) greater than 5.5, sufficient to hide a broad line region in our H alpha observations. Given this large inferred reddening and the strength of the UV continuum and emission lines, we conclude (as have others) that simple screen models of reddening are not appropriate for this object. These properties are very similar to those of the infrared luminous galaxies at lower redshift, suggesting that FSC 10244+4724 is the luminous extreme of the same population. We also present H band (1.6 micrometer) imaging polarimetry observations and find that the rest-frame optical emission is unpolarized (P = 3.2% +/- 22.0%). This deep image of the field shows FSC 10214+4724 to possess an unresolved core, with several companions located within 10 sec of the point source. We find it unlikely that this group of objects is physically associated with FSC 10214+4724 at z = 2.3, and we argue that their magnitudes and colors are more consistant with those expected with those expected for galaxies in a foreground group. While galaxy number counts would suggest that such a projection has a low probability of being observed randomly, a foreground group might gravitational lens the z = 2.3 source, making such random statistics inappropriate, and contribute to the large observed luminosity of FSC 10214+4724. Comparison of H band images taken on two occasions one year apart show that FSC 10214+4724 had varied by 0.16 +/- 0.03 mag relative to a nearby star during that time. The UV-optical emission line spectra, the bright dereddened continuum magnitude (K less than 12) of the unresolved core, its extremely large bolometric luminosity, strong UV polarization, and possible variability all suggest that FSC 10214+4724 harbors an obscured AGN. Given that we observe no spectral features attributable to star formation, it appears either that star formation in FSC 10214+4724 is more highly obscured at optical and UV wavelengths than the narrow line region of the AGN, or that the AGN (rather than star formation) dominates the large luminosity of this object.

Elston, Richard↗
NASA NTRS1988

Isotopic investigations in the area of the Tunguska catastrophe in 1908 year

The hypotheses of the annihilation and thermonuclear character of the Tunguska explosion have been tested by measuring inductive Ar-39 radioactivity from K and Ca in rocks and soil under the explosion epicentrum. Ar-39 was not detected though its estimated radioactivity was expected to be 100 times higher than the radio-metrical plant sensitivity. These results testify against the nuclear nature of the Tunguska explosion. The contents of 11 elements in the ultrasmall quantity of matter of the silicate microspherules isolated from catastrophe peat layer at the explosion site were measured by method of neutron activation analysis. It was demonstrated that the enrichment of microspherules by light and volatile elements (Al, Na, Zn, Cs) and the impoverishment by more heavy and hard volatile ones (Fe, Co, Sc). It was shown that the microspherules were not the product of differentiation of the terrestrial soil or of an ordinary meteorite material. It was demonstrated that Pb isotopic content in catastrophe peat layer had more Pb-204, Pb-207, Pb-208 than Pb-206 as compared with Pb isotopic content of other peat layers and common Pb in this area. In the peat column taken at the Ostraya hill area in three nearcatastrophe layers, small increases of isotopic C-13 was determined. Isotopic C effect in the peat layer is confirmed also for the North peatbog. Observed isotopic changes are not accounted for by climatic changes or other physico-chemical reasons. They seem to be related to preservation in the peat of matter resembling carbonaceous chrondrites of the Cl type or more probably of cometary matter enriched much more in volatile elements.

Kolesnikov, E. M.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Monte Carlo Technique Used to Model the Degradation of Internal Spacecraft Surfaces by Atomic Oxygen

Atomic oxygen is one of the predominant constituents of Earth's upper atmosphere. It is created by the photodissociation of molecular oxygen (O2) into single O atoms by ultraviolet radiation. It is chemically very reactive because a single O atom readily combines with another O atom or with other atoms or molecules that can form a stable oxide. The effects of atomic oxygen on the external surfaces of spacecraft in low Earth orbit can have dire consequences for spacecraft life, and this is a well-known and much studied problem. Much less information is known about the effects of atomic oxygen on the internal surfaces of spacecraft. This degradation can occur when openings in components of the spacecraft exterior exist that allow the entry of atomic oxygen into regions that may not have direct atomic oxygen attack but rather scattered attack. Openings can exist because of spacecraft venting, microwave cavities, and apertures for Earth viewing, Sun sensors, or star trackers. The effects of atomic oxygen erosion of polymers interior to an aperture on a spacecraft were simulated at the NASA Glenn Research Center by using Monte Carlo computational techniques. A two-dimensional model was used to provide quantitative indications of the attenuation of atomic oxygen flux as a function of the distance into a parallel-walled cavity. The model allows the atomic oxygen arrival direction, the Maxwell Boltzman temperature, and the ram energy to be varied along with the interaction parameters of the degree of recombination upon impact with polymer or nonreactive surfaces, the initial reaction probability, the reaction probability dependence upon energy and angle of attack, degree of specularity of scattering of reactive and nonreactive surfaces, and the degree of thermal accommodation upon impact with reactive and non-reactive surfaces to be varied to allow the model to produce atomic oxygen erosion geometries that replicate actual experimental results from space. The degree of erosion of various interior locations was compared with the erosion that would occur external to the spacecraft. Results of one cavity model indicate that, at depths into a two-dimensional cavity that are equal to 10 cavity widths, the erosion on the walls of the cavity is less than that on the top surface by over 2 orders of magnitude. Wall erosion near the surface of a cavity depends on which wall is receiving direct atomic oxygen attack. However, deep in the cavity little difference is present. Testing of various cavity models such as these gives spacecraft designers an indication of the level of threat to sensitive interior surfaces for different geometries. Even though the Monte Carlo model is two-dimensional, it can be used to provide qualitative information about spacecraft openings that are three-dimensional by offering reasonable insight as to the nature of the attenuation of damage that occurs within a spacecraft in low Earth orbit. As shown, there is more erosion on the side seeing direct atomic oxygen attack until a depth of approximately 5 times the width of the opening, where the erosion is the same on both sides.

Banks, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optical and Microphysical Retrievals of Marine Stratocumulus Clouds off the Coast of Namibia from Satellite and Aircraft

Though the emphasis of the Southern Africa Regional Science Initiative 2000 (SAFARI-2000) dry season campaign was largely on emission sources and transport, the assemblage of aircraft (including the high altitude NASA ER-2 remote sensing platform and the University of Washington CV-580, UK MRF C-130, and South African Weather Bureau JRA in situ aircrafts) provided a unique opportunity for cloud studies. Therefore, as part of the SAFARI initiative, investigations were undertaken to assess regional aerosol-cloud interactions and cloud remote sensing algorithms. In particular, the latter part of the experiment concentrated on marine boundary layer stratocumulus clouds off the southwest coast of Africa. Associated with cold water upwelling along the Benguela current, the Namibian stratocumulus regime has received limited attention but appears to be unique for several reasons. During the dry season, outflow of continental fires and industrial pollution over this area can be extreme. From below, upwelling provides a rich nutrient source for phytoplankton (a source of atmospheric sulfur through DMS production as well as from decay processes). The impact of these natural and anthropogenic sources on the microphysical and optical properties of the stratocumulus is unknown. Continental and Indian Ocean cloud systems of opportunity were also studied during the campaign. SAFARI 2000 aircraft flights off the coast of Namibia were coordinated with NASA Terra Satellite overpasses for synergy with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and other Terra instruments. MODIS was developed by NASA and launched onboard the Terra spacecraft on December 18, 1999 (and Aqua spacecraft on May 4, 2002). Among the remote sensing algorithms developed and applied to this sensor are cloud optical and microphysical properties that include cloud thermodynamic phase, optical thickness, and effective particle radius of both liquid water and ice clouds. The archived products from these algorithms have applications in climate change studies, climate modeling, numerical weather prediction, and fundamental atmospheric research. The archived MODIS Collection 5 cloud products processing stream will be used to analyze low water cloud scenes off the Namibian and Angolan coasts during SAFARI 2000 time period, as well as other years. Pixel-level Terra and Aqua MODIS retrievals (l. km spatial resolution at nadir) and gridded (1' uniform grid) statistics of cloud optical thickness and effective particle radius will be presented, including joint probability distributions between the two quantities. In addition, perspectives from the MODIS Airborne Simulator, which flew on the ER-2 during SAFARI 2000 providing high spatial resolution retrievals (50 m at nadir), will be presented as appropriate. The H-SAF Program requires an experimental operational European-centric Satellite Precipitation Algorithm System (E-SPAS) that produces medium spatial resolution and high temporal resolution surface rainfall and snowfall estimates over the Greater European Region including the Greater Mediterranean Basin. Currently, there are various types of experimental operational algorithm methods of differing spatiotemporal resolutions that generate global precipitation estimates. This address will first assess the current status of these methods and then recommend a methodology for the H-SAF Program that deviates somewhat from the current approach under development but one that takes advantage of existing techniques and existing software developed for the TRMM Project and available through the public domain.

Platnick, Steven E.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Stars and linear dunes on Mars

A field containing 11 star and incipient star dunes occurs on Mars at 8.8 deg S, 270.9 deg W. Examples of linear dunes are found in a crater at 59.4 deg S, 343 deg W. While rare, dune varieties that form in bi- and multidirectional wind regimes are not absent from the surface of Mars. The occurence of both of these dune fields offers new insight into the nature of martian wind conditions and sand supply. The linear dunes appears to have formed through modification of a formerly transverse aeolian deposit, suggesting a relatively recent change in local wind direction. The 11 dunes in the star dune locality show a progressive change from barchan to star form as each successive dune has traveled up into a valley, into a more complex wind regime. The star dunes corroborate the model of N. Lancaster (1989), for the formation of star dunes by projection of transverse dunes into a complex, topographically influenced wind regime. The star dunes have dark streaks emanating from them, providing evidence that the dunes were active at or near the time the relevant image was obtained by the Viking 1 orbiter in 1978. The star and linear dunes described here are located in different regions on the martian surface. Unlike most star and linear dunes on Earth, both martian examples are isolated occurrences; neither is part of a major sand sea. Previously published Mars general circulation model results suggest that the region in which the linear dune field occurs should be a bimodal wind regime, while the region in which the star dunes occur should be unimodal. The star dunes are probably the result of localized complication of the wind regime owing to topographic confinement of the dunes. Local topographic influence on wind regime is also evident in the linear dune field, as there are transverse dunes in close proximity to the linear dunes, and their occurrence is best explained by funneling of wind through a topographic gap in the upwind crater wall.

Edgett, Kenneth S.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Geomechanical models of impact cratering: Puchezh-Katunki structure

Impact cratering is a complex natural phenomenon that involves various physical and mechanical processes. Simulating these processes may be improved using the data obtained during the deep drilling at the central mound of the Puchezh-Katunki impact structure. A research deep drillhole (named Vorotilovskaya) has been drilled in the Puchezh-Katunki impact structure (European Russia, 57 deg 06 min N, 43 deg 35 min E). The age of the structure is estimated at about 180 to 200 m.y. The initial rim crater diameter is estimated at about 40 km. The central uplift is composed of large blocks of crystalline basement rocks. Preliminary study of the core shows that crystalline rocks are shock metamorphosed by shock pressure from 45 GPa near the surface to 15-20 GPa at a depth of about 5 km. The drill core allows the possibility of investigating many previously poorly studied cratering processes in the central part of the impact structure. As a first step one can use the estimates of energy for the homogeneous rock target. The diameter of the crater rim may be estimated as 40 km. The models elaborated earlier show that such a crater may be formed after collapse of a transient cavity with a radius of 10 km. The most probable range of impact velocities from 11.2 to 30 km/s may be inferred for the asteroidal impactor. For the density of a projectile of 2 g/cu cm the energy of the impact is estimated as 1E28 to 3E28 erg. In the case of vertical impact, the diameter of an asteroidal projectile is from 1.5 to 3 km for the velocity range from 11 to 30 km/s. For the most probable impact angle of 45 deg, the estimated diameter of an asteroid is slightly larger: from 2 to 4 km. Numerical simulation of the transient crater collapse has been done using several models of rock rheology during collapse. Results show that the column at the final position beneath the central mound is about 5 km in length. This value is close to the shock-pressure decay observed along the drill core. Further improvement of the model needs to take into account the blocky structure of target rocks revealed by drilling.

Ivanov, B. A.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Recursive Branching Simulated Annealing Algorithm

This innovation is a variation of a simulated-annealing optimization algorithm that uses a recursive-branching structure to parallelize the search of a parameter space for the globally optimal solution to an objective. The algorithm has been demonstrated to be more effective at searching a parameter space than traditional simulated-annealing methods for a particular problem of interest, and it can readily be applied to a wide variety of optimization problems, including those with a parameter space having both discrete-value parameters (combinatorial) and continuous-variable parameters. It can take the place of a conventional simulated- annealing, Monte-Carlo, or random- walk algorithm. In a conventional simulated-annealing (SA) algorithm, a starting configuration is randomly selected within the parameter space. The algorithm randomly selects another configuration from the parameter space and evaluates the objective function for that configuration. If the objective function value is better than the previous value, the new configuration is adopted as the new point of interest in the parameter space. If the objective function value is worse than the previous value, the new configuration may be adopted, with a probability determined by a temperature parameter, used in analogy to annealing in metals. As the optimization continues, the region of the parameter space from which new configurations can be selected shrinks, and in conjunction with lowering the annealing temperature (and thus lowering the probability for adopting configurations in parameter space with worse objective functions), the algorithm can converge on the globally optimal configuration. The Recursive Branching Simulated Annealing (RBSA) algorithm shares some features with the SA algorithm, notably including the basic principles that a starting configuration is randomly selected from within the parameter space, the algorithm tests other configurations with the goal of finding the globally optimal solution, and the region from which new configurations can be selected shrinks as the search continues. The key difference between these algorithms is that in the SA algorithm, a single path, or trajectory, is taken in parameter space, from the starting point to the globally optimal solution, while in the RBSA algorithm, many trajectories are taken; by exploring multiple regions of the parameter space simultaneously, the algorithm has been shown to converge on the globally optimal solution about an order of magnitude faster than when using conventional algorithms. Novel features of the RBSA algorithm include: 1. More efficient searching of the parameter space due to the branching structure, in which multiple random configurations are generated and multiple promising regions of the parameter space are explored; 2. The implementation of a trust region for each parameter in the parameter space, which provides a natural way of enforcing upper- and lower-bound constraints on the parameters; and 3. The optional use of a constrained gradient- search optimization, performed on the continuous variables around each branch s configuration in parameter space to improve search efficiency by allowing for fast fine-tuning of the continuous variables within the trust region at that configuration point.

Bolcar, Matthew↗
NASA NTRS2016

An Invited Preface for the Following Book: Astrobiologia, Uma Ciencia Emergente

Since the dawn of civilization, we have beheld at the beauty and wonder of the natural world around us and wondered how it came to be. We have pondered the past, and have been intrigued about the future. For this we are unique. Our ancestors looked to the vastness of space and thought surely there are others out there. We are now at a new time in human history where we can address these age-old questions with a scientific approach and study rigorously the three big questions of astrobiology: Where do we come from? Where are we going? and Are we alone? These fundamental questions of astrobiology correspond to those of humanity, and arguably, what makes us human. And so we cannot help but be drawn to the field. Unlike other scientific disciplines, Astrobiology draws on the latest advances in a multitude of fields, from evolutionary and molecular biology, to prebiotic and interstellar chemistry, from astrophysics to astronomy, with a healthy dose of earth and planetary science. Astrobiology is in reality a "metadiscipline" drawing on useful science wherever it is to be found. From a practical point of view, this endeavor requires the interaction of scientists who might not normally meet each other, much less work on a common research project. And, unlike most other scientific disciplines, Astrobiology has implications for how we see ourselves, and how we interact with the earth and beyond. "Where do we come from" touches on the "why" questions that have intrigued not just scientists but philosophers and theologians. "Where are we going" adds to these an economic and political involvement that is currently being played out with discussions of climate change. "And are we alone" will someday force us to face the fact that we as living creatures are not unique, or perhaps that we are utterly alone in the universe, the result of a chemical history that was so improbable as to result in a sample size of one. Either result will force ethical considerations of either "the other" and their relationship to us, or our solitude and thus responsibility as the only life form in our cosmos. So what is Astrobiology? Let's start with the "Where do we come from?" A biologist will approach this looking at the evolution of life on earth, using such traditional tools as comparative anatomy and paleontology and newer tools such as molecular techniques. But this doesn't address why this happened the way it did without a comprehensive understanding of the environment. What was the temperature at such and such a time? Was the earth in a snowball phase or being bombarded by meteorites -- or even just a single large, well-placed one such as struck off the Yucatan peninsula 65 million years ago. This event could not have been predicted by population genetics alone, yet it had the most profound influence on our evolution as without it, we could still be in a world dominated by dinosaurs with the mammals cowering under cover. But it is not enough to go back to LUCA, the Last Universal Common Ancestor of all extant life. One must go back to the dawn of life. How did life arise? What was the environmental backdrop that allowed it to happen? How did we happen to end up with a habitable planet? Indeed, what is the origin and evolution of our solar system, galaxy, biogenic elements all the way back to the Big Bang. The "Where are we going?" tends to be ignored in many astrobiology programs, but in fact this is of the most immediate importance to us. Whereas the past was dominated by physical and chemical processes, and organismal interactions, the future has a new major player: us. While we probably don't have the power (yet) to stop our galaxy passing through another, or even reset the sun or stop the movement of the moon away from the earth, all of these things will influence the future of life on earth. We are already proving that we have the power to visit other bodies in our solar system, either with humans or our robotic surrogates. We are changing our atmospheric composition and thus our climate. We have the power to render species extinct, including our own. But we also have the power to use these tools for the common good, to extend our lifetimes and reclaim our rivers and forests. Which will it be? And then there is the question where science fiction becomes a reality: "Are we alone?" While many people are anxious to find signs of intelligent life out there, such a creature may not share either our curiosity or values. But what if there was a beneficent alien civilization that could communicate with us, perhaps forging a mutual understanding? More likely in the forseeable future is finding a small life, less evolved, life form. Note I did not use the word "simple" as there is nothing "simple" about life, ever. Which brings us back to the question: what is life? So where does Brazil come in? For nearly a decade there has been interest in a Brazilian astrobiology program, from a small side meeting held by the Brazilian Exobiology Program (BEP) of the Brazilian National Research Council, held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, on August 12, 2009, in association with the IAU Assembly to subsequent workshops held in several locations and membership of the Brazilian program in the NASA Astrobiology Institute (NAI). Each time I go to Brazil, I am impressed by the enthusiasm of the community, both scientific and student, the latter an excellent omen for the future of astrobiology in Brazil. Facilities are being built to supplement the natural laboratories that Brazil is blessed to have. In my own lab I have been privileged to have a wonderful Brazilian postdoctoral fellow, Dr. Ivan Paulino-Lima, resulting in a daily reminder of the program. I am honored to have been part of the development of astrobiology in Brazil, and hope that this relationship will continue to flourish. Clearly to advance astrobiology needs new knowledge, a reorganization of that which is known, and space missions. To help the reader join on this quest, what follows is a buffet of topics that will allow the reader to nibble on the richness that is Astrobiology. And, like a fabulous meal, it should make you want more. Welcome to Astrobiology.

Are we alone?↗
NASA NTRS1993

Viewpoint 9--molecular structure of aqueous interfaces

In this review we summarize recent progress in our understanding of the structure of aqueous interfaces emerging from molecular level computer simulations. It is emphasized that the presence of the interface induces specific structural effects which, in turn, influence a wide variety of phenomena occurring near the phase boundaries. At the liquid-vapor interface, the most probable orientations of a water molecule is such that its dipole moment lies parallel to the interface, one O-H bond points toward the vapor and the other O-H bond is directed toward the liquid. The orientational distributions are broad and slightly asymmetric, resulting in an excess dipole moment pointing toward the liquid. These structural preferences persist at interfaces between water and nonpolar liquids, indicating that the interactions between the two liquids in contact are weak. It was found that liquid-liquid interfaces are locally sharp but broadened by capillary waves. One consequence of anisotropic orientations of interfacial water molecules is asymmetric interactions, with respect to the sign of the charge, of ions with the water surface. It was found that even very close to the surface ions retain their hydration shells. New features of aqueous interfaces have been revealed in studies of water-membrane and water-monolayer systems. In particular, water molecules are strongly oriented by the polar head groups of the amphiphilic phase, and they penetrate the hydrophilic head-group region, but not the hydrophobic core. At infinite dilution near interfaces, amphiphilic molecules exhibit behavior different from that in the gas phase or in bulk water. This result sheds new light on the nature of hydrophobic effect in the interfacial regions. The presence of interfaces was also shown to affect both equilibrium and dynamic components of rates of chemical reactions. Applications of continuum models to interfacial problems have been, so far, unsuccessful. This, again, underscores the importance of molecular-level information about interfaces.

Review, Tutorial↗
NASA NTRS2018

Quantification of Dynamic Model Validation Metrics Using Uncertainty Propagation from Requirements

The Space Launch System, NASA's new large launch vehicle for long range space exploration, is presently in the final design and construction phases, with the first launch scheduled for 2019. A dynamic model of the system has been created and is critical for calculation of interface loads and natural frequencies and mode shapes for guidance, navigation, and control (GNC). Because of the program and schedule constraints, a single modal test of the SLS will be performed while bolted down to the Mobile Launch Pad just before the first launch. A Monte Carlo and optimization scheme will be performed to create thousands of possible models based on given dispersions in model properties and to determine which model best fits the natural frequencies and mode shapes from modal test. However, the question still remains as to whether this model is acceptable for the loads and GNC requirements. An uncertainty propagation and quantification (UP and UQ) technique to develop a quantitative set of validation metrics that is based on the flight requirements has therefore been developed and is discussed in this paper. There has been considerable research on UQ and UP and validation in the literature, but very little on propagating the uncertainties from requirements, so most validation metrics are "rules-of-thumb;" this research seeks to come up with more reason-based metrics. One of the main assumptions used to achieve this task is that the uncertainty in the modeling of the fixed boundary condition is accurate, so therefore that same uncertainty can be used in propagating the fixed-test configuration to the free-free actual configuration. The second main technique applied here is the usage of the limit-state formulation to quantify the final probabilistic parameters and to compare them with the requirements. These techniques are explored with a simple lumped spring-mass system and a simplified SLS model. When completed, it is anticipated that this requirements-based validation metric will provide a quantified confidence and probability of success for the final SLS dynamics model, which will be critical for a successful launch program, and can be applied in the many other industries where an accurate dynamic model is required.

Brown, Andrew M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

On-board closed-loop congestion control for satellite based packet switching networks

NASA LeRC is currently investigating a satellite architecture that incorporates on-board packet switching capability. Because of the statistical nature of packet switching, arrival traffic may fluctuate and thus it is necessary to integrate congestion control mechanism as part of the on-board processing unit. This study focuses on the closed-loop reactive control. We investigate the impact of the long propagation delay on the performance and propose a scheme to overcome the problem. The scheme uses a global feedback signal to regulate the packet arrival rate of ground stations. In this scheme, the satellite continuously broadcasts the status of its output buffer and the ground stations respond by selectively discarding packets or by tagging the excessive packets as low-priority. The two schemes are evaluated by theoretical queuing analysis and simulation. The former is used to analyze the simplified model and to determine the basic trends and bounds, and the later is used to assess the performance of a more realistic system and to evaluate the effectiveness of more sophisticated control schemes. The results show that the long propagation delay makes the closed-loop congestion control less responsive. The broadcasted information can only be used to extract statistical information. The discarding scheme needs carefully-chosen status information and reduction function, and normally requires a significant amount of ground discarding to reduce the on-board packet loss probability. The tagging scheme is more effective since it tolerates more uncertainties and allows a larger margin of error in status information. It can protect the high-priority packets from excessive loss and fully utilize the downlink bandwidth at the same time.

Chu, Pong P.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Gaussian Process Regression Method for Costing SmallSat Bus Capabilities

NASA is responding to the growing interest in, andcapabilities of, small satellites for science applications with an increasingnumber and frequency of Announcements of Opportunityfor small satellite space missions. Estimating the probabilitythat these mission concepts will fit within the small cost capsof these opportunities is largely driven by the probability thatone of the burgeoning number of small satellite providers will beable to meet the payload’s accommodation requirements withinthe budget for the spacecraft. JPL has collected a databasecontaining technical specifications and cost of commerciallyavailable Smallsat buses across various vendors. The primarypurpose of the database is for use in JPL’s Team X architecturestudies to inform cost estimates of a spacecraft bus which fitsthe customer’s technical requirements for their payload andmission. Customer needs are often unique and don’t alignperfectly with an off-the-shelf commercial spacecraft bus, whichmotivates the need to develop a cost model across the continuoustechnical parameter space.Al’s Bus Cost Distribution Estimator (ABCDE) uses Gaussianprocess regression (GPR) to predict commercial Smallsat spacecraftbus cost based on a subset of a customer’s technicalrequirements (payload mass, payload power, delta V, pointingcontrol, and downlink rate). GPR is implemented in ABCDE asa Bayesian method which fits an implied multivariate regressionon the technical parameters and uses kriging to intentionally“overfit” the residuals. Overfitting the residuals allows costestimates to collapse in uncertainty closer to the data pointswhile maintaining larger uncertainty intervals in regions of parameterspace with fewer data records. The data used to fit thismodel is sensitive and represents cost estimates for off-the-shelfcommercial buses. GPR simultaneously protects the sensitivityof the database and uses the sparse nature of the database toaccount for uncertainty in cost in a useful way. For a givenset of customer technical requirements, the tool provides a costestimate distribution, the percentiles of which can be interpretedas a confidence level of finding a commercial bus under a specifiedcost cap. ABCDE dramatically pushes the boundaries ofspacecraft cost estimation models due to its Bayesian methodology(accounting for the maximum uncertainty in the underlyingregression), the mathematically advanced kriging methodology,and the novelty of its application in Team X architecture tradestudies.

Austin, Alex↗
NASA NTRS2022

New Constraints on the Dark Matter Density Profiles of Dwarf Galaxies from Proper Motions of Globular Cluster Streams

The central density profiles in dwarf galaxy halos depend strongly on the nature of dark matter (DM). Recently, in Malhan et al. we employed N-body simulations to show that the cuspy cold DM subhalos predicted by cosmological simulations can be differentiated from cored subhalos using the properties of accreted globular cluster (GC) streams since these GCs experience tidal stripping within their parent halos prior to accretion onto the Milky Way. We previously found that clusters that are accreted within cuspy subhalos produce streams with larger physical widths and higher dispersions in line-of-sight velocity and angular momentum than streams that are accreted within cored subhalos. Here, we use the same suite of simulations to demonstrate that the dispersion in the tangential velocities of streams (σ 𝜈 Tan) is also sensitive to the central DM density profiles of their parent dwarfs and GCs that they were accreted from; cuspy subhalos produce streams with larger σ 𝜈 Tan than those accreted inside cored subhalos. Using Gaia EDR3 observations of multiple GC streams we compare their (σ 𝜈 Tan) values with simulations. The measured (σ 𝜈 Tan) values are consistent with both an “in situ” origin and with accretion inside cored subhalos of M ∼ 10(8–9) Me (or very low-mass cuspy subhalos of mass ∼10(8) Mꙩ ). Despite the large current uncertainties in σ 𝜈 Tan, we find a low probability that any of the progenitor GCs were accreted from cuspy subhalos of M ≳ 10 (9) Mꙩ. The uncertainties on Gaia tangential velocity measurements are expected to decrease in future and will allow for stronger constraints on subhalo DM density profiles.

Khyati Malhan↗
NASA NTRS2016

Aura OMI observations of regional SO2 and NO2 pollution changes from 2005 to 2015

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA's Aura satellite has been providing global observations of the ozone layer and key atmospheric pollutant gases, such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2/ and sulfur dioxide (SO2/, since October 2004. The data products from the same instrument provide consistent spatial and temporal coverage and permit the study of anthropogenic and natural emissions on local-to-global scales. In this paper, we examine changes in SO2 and NO2 over some of the world's most polluted industrialized regions during the first decade of OMI observations. In terms of regional pollution changes, we see both upward and downward trends, sometimes in opposite directions for NO2 and SO2, for different study areas. The trends are, for the most part, associated with economic and/or technological changes in energy use, as well as regional regulatory policies. Over the eastern US, both NO2 and SO2 levels decreased dramatically from 2005 to 2015, by more than 40 and 80 %, respectively, as a result of both technological improvements and stricter regulations of emissions. OMI confirmed large reductions in SO2 over eastern Europe's largest coal-fired power plants after installation of flue gas desulfurization devices. The North China Plain has the world's most severe SO2 pollution, but a decreasing trend has been observed since 2011, with about a 50% reduction in 2012- 2015, due to an economic slowdown and government efforts to restrain emissions from the power and industrial sectors. In contrast, India's SO2 and NO2 levels from coal power plants and smelters are growing at a fast pace, increasing by more than 100 and 50 %, respectively, from 2005 to 2015. Several SO2 hot spots observed over the Persian Gulf are probably related to oil and gas operations and indicate a possible underestimation of emissions from these sources in bottom-up emission inventories. Overall, OMI observations have proved valuable in documenting rapid changes in air quality over different parts of the world during last decade. The baseline established during the first 11 years of OMI is indispensable for the interpretation of air quality measurements from current and future satellite atmospheric composition missions.

Pollution trends↗
NASA NTRS2004

Effects of Elevated Free-Stream Turbulence on Active Control of a Separation Bubble

The Effects of elevated free-stream turbulence (FST) on the natural and periodically excited separation bubbles were studied experimentally, due to the relevance of this flow to low-pressure turbine blades at low Reynolds numbers. A bubble was formed at the leading edge of a flat plate and the FST level was altered by placing a grid across the flow at different locations upstream of the plate. The mixing across the separated shear-layer, forming the free boundary of the bubble, increased due to the elevated FST and due to nominally two-dimensional periodic excitation, both flattening and shortening the bubble. Periodic excitation at frequencies that were at least an order of magnitude lower than those associated with the initial shear-layer instability, were very effective at low FST, because the amplitudes of the excitation frequency and its harmonic were amplified over the bubble. High frequency excitation (F+ 3, based on the length of the baseline low FST bubble) had a major effect close to the separation location, while farther downstream the excited fluctuations rapidly decayed in the reattachment region. Low frequency excitation, that generated waves comparable to the length of the unperturbed bubble (F+ 1) were less effective and their magnitude decayed at a slower rate downstream of reattachment. An increase in the level of the FST reduced the net effect of the periodic excitation on the mixing enhancement and subsequent reattachment process, probably due to a destructive interference between the nominally 2D excitation and the random (in space and time) FST, reducing the spanwise coherence and therefore the effectiveness of the current control strategy. However, even at the reduced effectiveness of 2D periodic excitation at elevated FST, it accelerated the reattachment process and the recovery rate of the reattached boundary layer, enhancing the boundary layer resistance to repeat separation and reducing its momentum loss further downstream.

Ashpis, D.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Analysis of shadowing effects on MIR photovoltaic and solar dynamic power systems

The NASA Lewis Research Center is currently working with RSC-Energia, the Russian Space Agency, and Allied Signal in developing a flight demonstration solar dynamic power system. This type of power system is dependent upon solar flux that is reflected and concentrated into a thermal storage system to provide the thermal energy input to a closed-cycle Brayton heat engine. The solar dynamic unit will be flown on the Russian Mir space station in anticipation of use on the International Space Station Alpha. By the time the power system is launched, the Mir will be a spatially complex configuration which will have, in addition to the three-gimbaled solar dynamic unit, eleven solar array wings that are either fixed or track the Sun along one axis and a variety or repositionable habitation and experiment modules. The proximity of arrays to modules creates a situation which makes it highly probable that there will be varying solar flux due to shadowing on the solar dynamic unit and some of the arrays throughout the orbit. Shadowing causes fluctuations in the power output from the arrays and the solar dynamic power system, thus reducing the energy capabilities of the spacecraft. An assessment of the capabilities of the power system under these conditions is an important part in influencing the design and operations of the spacecraft and predicting its energy performance. This paper describes the results obtained from using the Orbiting Spacecraft Shadowing Analysis Station program that was integrated into the Station Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation (SPACE) electrical power system computer program. OSSA allows one to consider the numerous complex factors for analyzing the shadowing effects on the electrical power system including the variety of spacecraft hardware geometric configurations, yearly and daily orbital variations in the vehicle attitude and orbital maneuvers (for communications coverage, payload pointing requirements and rendezvous/docking with other vehicles). The geometric models of the MIR with a solar dynamic power unit that were used in performing shadowing analyses are described. Also presented in this paper are results for individual orbits for several flight attitude cases which include assessments of the shadowing impacts upon the solar dynamic unit and the solar arrays. These cases depict typical MIR flight attitudes likely to have shadowing impact. Because of the time varying nature of the Mir orientation with respect to the Sun and the lack of knowledge of the precise timing of the attitude changes, strategies must be devised to assess and depict the shadowing impacts on power generation throughout the year. To address this, the best, nominal and worst impacts of shadowing considering a wide possible range of parameter changes for typical mission operation period are shown.

Fincannon, James↗
NASA NTRS2016

Aura OMI Observations of Regional SO2 and NO2 Pollution Changes from 2005 to 2015

The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) onboard NASA's Aura satellite has been providing global observations of the ozone layer and key atmospheric pollutant gases, such as nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and sulfur dioxide (SO2), since October 2004. The data products from the same instrument provide consistent spatial and temporal coverage and permit the study of anthropogenic and natural emissions on local-to-global scales. In this paper, we examine changes in SO2 and NO2 over some of the world's most polluted industrialized regions during the first decade of OMI observations. In terms of regional pollution changes, we see both upward and downward trends, sometimes in opposite directions for NO2 and SO2, for different study areas. The trends are, for the most part, associated with economic and/or technological changes in energy use, as well as regional regulatory policies. Over the eastern US, both NO2 and SO2 levels decreased dramatically from 2005 to 2015, by more than 40 and 80 percent, respectively, as a result of both technological improvements and stricter regulations of emissions. OMI confirmed large reductions in SO2 over eastern Europe's largest coal-fired power plants after installation of flue gas desulfurization devices. The North China Plain has the world's most severe SO2 pollution, but a decreasing trend has been observed since 2011, with about a 50 percent reduction in 2012-2015, due to an economic slowdown and government efforts to restrain emissions from the power and industrial sectors. In contrast, India's SO2 and NO2 levels from coal power plants and smelters are growing at a fast pace, increasing by more than 100 and 50 percent, respectively, from 2005 to 2015. Several SO2 hot spots observed over the Persian Gulf are probably related to oil and gas operations and indicate a possible underestimation of emissions from these sources in bottom-up emission inventories. Overall, OMI observations have proved valuable in documenting rapid changes in air quality over different parts of the world during last decade. The baseline established during the first 11 years of OMI is indispensable for the interpretation of air quality measurements from current and future satellite atmospheric composition missions.

SO2 and NO2↗