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At least 811 records · Page 45

Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region

The Great Lakes Region's water quality and ecological health are threatened by the export of nutrients from agricultural lands, which causes eutrophication, hypoxia, and destructive algal blooms. The intensification of hydrologic cycles brought about by climate change is expected to exacerbate nutrient loading in the region, and, at the same time, agricultural adaptation to changing conditions is also expected to affect loading through shifting amounts and timing of fertilization. Quantifying these future effects and their interactions necessitates modeling both the human and natural processes as a coupled system, by pairing land use and agricultural management with hydrologic modeling. At the same time, compounding uncertainties arising from the complex interactions in both systems significantly limit our predictive understanding of the region's impacts. This study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developed for simulating the impact of various farmer decisions on watershed functions in Western Lake Erie watersheds, and an under-development agent-based model (ABM) for agricultural management decisions. The aim of this study is to use global sensitivity analysis on the coupled ABM and SWAT models to quantify how uncertainty in both models interactively affects nutrient loading. To do so, we will conduct Sobol sensitivity analysis experiments at different levels of coupling assumptions to quantify how various uncertain factors (e.g., soil moisture and crop choice) and their interactions affect our estimates of nutrient loading. The results of this analysis will allow us to quantify how complex interactions and dependencies between both systems amplify the effect of uncertainties. Insights gained from this study will have broader implications for modeling the adaptive co-evolution of human and natural systems under climate change and can inform effective management of nutrient loading in the Great Lakes Region.

Climate Change↗

Earth-Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Concept of Operations

Compared to the current paradigm for crew health in low-Earth orbit and Lunar missions that rely on constant communication with Mission Control, there is an anticipated shift in medical operations for deep-space exploration missions. This shift stems from mission constraints imposed by the considerable distance from Earth, which include resource limitations due to a lack of resupply, mass, power, volume, and data limitations, challenges imposed by communication latency and the inability to evacuate in case of emergencies. To transition towards a more self-reliant medical approach, a comprehensive strategy is essential to progressively enable crew autonomy and mitigate mission success risks in the challenging environment of space. This transformative shift is collectively referred to as "Earth-Independent Medical Operations" (EIMO), signifying the gradual transfer of medical care and decision-making from terrestrial resources to space-based assets. This transition is aimed at bolstering astronaut health and performance while simultaneously reducing the overall risks associated with space missions. The constraints related to EIMO necessitate an integrated development of medical systems, featuring interoperability with mission planning, vehicle design, spacesuit design, and data architecture. This integration is vital in establishing a robust medical infrastructure that not only supports the well-being of astronauts but also ensures the success of the mission as a whole. The Human Research Program (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element has developed a model-based Concept of Operations (ConOps) outlining an initial vision for EIMO. Within this ConOps, a comprehensive view is presented, encompassing stakeholder needs, system objectives, and system goals associated with EIMO. Additionally, it provides illustrative examples of the various activities (scenarios) for which the system will be employed during missions. The selection of these activities has been meticulous, aiming to encompass a wide spectrum of medical conditions, including those falling under different risk categories, such as low-likelihood-low-consequence, low-likelihood-high-consequence, and high-likelihood-low-consequence. The selection of these activities (scenarios) effectively encompasses the wide range of medical events situated within an assumed probability-consequence bell curve. In each scenario, at least one of the five main EIMO components identified is captured. Those EIMO components are: Pre-mission Planning, Acute and Emergent Management Decision Making, Prolonged Medical Management Decision Making, Supplies and Resource Management, and Task Load Management. The ConOps was developed by a multidisciplinary team consisting of systems engineers, scientists, and clinicians across NASA and aims to serve as an initial recommendation to gradually and safely enabling crew autonomy for Mars missions and beyond.

Earth Independent Medical Operations↗

Earth-Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Concept of Operations (ConOps)

Compared to the current paradigm for crew health in low-Earth orbit and Lunar missions that rely on constant communication with Mission Control, there is an anticipated shift in medical operations for deep-space exploration missions. This shift stems from mission constraints imposed by the considerable distance from Earth, which include resource limitations due to a lack of resupply, mass, power, volume, and data limitations, challenges imposed by communication latency and the inability to evacuate in case of emergencies. To transition towards a more self-reliant medical approach, a comprehensive strategy is essential to progressively enable crew autonomy and mitigate mission success risks in the challenging environment of space. This transformative shift is collectively referred to as "Earth-Independent Medical Operations" (EIMO), signifying the gradual transfer of medical care and decision-making from terrestrial resources to space-based assets. This transition is aimed at bolstering astronaut health and performance while simultaneously reducing the overall risks associated with space missions. The constraints related to EIMO necessitate an integrated development of medical systems, featuring interoperability with mission planning, vehicle design, spacesuit design, and data architecture. This integration is vital in establishing a robust medical infrastructure that not only supports the well-being of astronauts but also ensures the success of the mission as a whole. The Human Research Program (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element has developed a model-based Concept of Operations (ConOps) outlining an initial vision for EIMO. Within this ConOps, a comprehensive view is presented, encompassing stakeholder needs, system objectives, and system goals associated with EIMO. Additionally, it provides illustrative examples of the various activities (scenarios) for which the system will be employed during missions. The selection of these activities has been meticulous, aiming to encompass a wide spectrum of medical conditions, including those falling under different risk categories, such as low-likelihood-low-consequence, low-likelihood-high-consequence, and high-likelihood-low-consequence. The selection of these activities (scenarios) effectively encompasses the wide range of medical events situated within an assumed probability-consequence bell curve. In each scenario, at least one of the five main EIMO components identified is captured. Those EIMO components are: Pre-mission Planning, Acute and Emergent Management Decision Making, Prolonged Medical Management Decision Making, Supplies and Resource Management, and Task Load Management. The ConOps was developed by a multidisciplinary team consisting of systems engineers, scientists, and clinicians across NASA and aims to serve as an initial recommendation to gradually and safely enabling crew autonomy for Mars missions and beyond.

Earth Independent Medical Operations↗

A Reactor Scale-Up Methodology from Lab-Scale to Pilot-Scale Operations: Numerical Modeling of THFA Dehydration to DHP in Packed-Bed Reactors

This manuscript discusses developing a model-based scale-up methodology for a successful technology transfer of gas-phase catalytic reactors from a lab-scale to a pilot-scale operation. The manuscript demonstrates the methodology for gas-phase dehydration of tetrahydrofurfuryl alcohol (THFA) to dihydropyran (DHP) process over commercial Al 2 O 3 catalysts. A two-dimensional reactor model was developed using COMSOL Multiphysics 6.1 software. The model solves heat and mass transport equations in bed-scale and particle scales simultaneously. This powerful feature enables accurate prediction of the heat and mass transfer limitations in pilot-scale reactors, if any exists. Further, the model uses isothermal lab-scale experimental data to derive and validate the reaction chemistry, flow fields and boundary conditions. The model was then scaled-up to project conversion, selectivity, yield and formation rate of DHP in a pilot-scale reactor. The results highlight the complex nature of chemistry, heat, and mass transfer effects in lab-scale and pilot-scale reactors. The model results inform the possible operational limitations of the pilot-scale reactor and design strategies to improve process efficiency. Although the scale-up approach is explained through the THFA dehydration process, the methodology is applicable to any catalytic packed-bed reactor models for a successful process scale-up.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Unsteady thermotechnical model of a closed flat plate solar collector–storage tank system

The main provisions of the developed numerical unsteady model of the flat plate solar collector–storage tank (SC–ST) system are given. The model takes into account all of the main parameters of the SC (receiver parameters, radiative properties of the transparent fence for solar radiation, and thermophysical properties of the thermal insulation of the bottom) and the ST (thermophysical parameters of thermal insulation). An algorithm and a program for calculating the thermal properties of a closed SC–ST system have been developed based on this model in the Delphi language. The results of the calculated estimates of the time variation of water heating temperatures in the ST and the efficiency of the closed SC–ST system as a function of the ST volume are given for the case where the water temperature at the SC inlet is equal to the mean water temperature in the ST. The model and the program also make it possible to determine the time variation of temperatures of SC elements and water in individual sections along the length of the SC as well as the thermal losses of the SC sections. The model makes it possible to estimate the effect of the thermal properties of SC elements and the water velocity on the thermal properties of the SC–ST system. The program can be modified for the case of the open SC–ST system, i.e., where the water temperature at the SC inlet does not depend on the water temperature in the ST.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Augmented Method to Improve Thermal Data for the Figure Drift Thermal Distortion Predictions of the JWST OTIS Cryogenic Vacuum Test

The JWST Optical Telescope Element (OTE) assembly is the largest optically stable infrared-optimized telescope currently being manufactured and assembled, and is scheduled for launch in 2018. The JWST OTE, including the 18 segment primary mirror, secondary mirror, and the Aft Optics Subsystem (AOS) are designed to be passively cooled and operate near 45K. These optical elements are supported by a complex composite backplane structure. As a part of the structural distortion model validation efforts, a series of tests are planned during the cryogenic vacuum test of the fully integrated flight hardware at NASA JSC Chamber A. The successful ends to the thermal-distortion phases are heavily dependent on the accurate temperature knowledge of the OTE structural members. However, the current temperature sensor allocations during the cryo-vac test may not have sufficient fidelity to provide accurate knowledge of the temperature distributions within the composite structure. A method based on an inverse distance relationship among the sensors and thermal model nodes was developed to improve the thermal data provided for the nanometer scale WaveFront Error (WFE) predictions. The Linear Distance Weighted Interpolation (LDWI) method was developed to augment the thermal model predictions based on the sparse sensor information. This paper will encompass the development of the LDWI method using the test data from the earlier pathfinder cryo-vac tests, and the results of the notional and as tested WFE predictions from the structural finite element model cases to characterize the accuracies of this LDWI method.

Thermal Modeling↗

Development and Validation of Resistance-Capacitance Model for Phase Change Material Embedded in Porous Media

A simple and effective way to enhance PCM thermal conductivity is by embedding porous materials with high thermal conductivities. In this work, CFD was used to evaluate the melting of PCM embedded in metal foam supplied with constant heat flux. Good agreement between experimental and numerical results has been found with a mean PCM local temperature deviation of 1.62K and 2.97K in two locations. The CFD simulation time was 56 hours for 6.5 hours of flow time. A computationally efficient resistance capacitance-based model (RCM) was developed to improve simulation speed. The proposed RCM exhibited mean local temperature deviations of 1.86K and 2.96K when compared against the experimental data for two thermocouple positions, however, it was approximately 2.5x10 5 times faster than CFD. The charging time deviation was less than 1% compared to CFD, and no significant change in thermal energy stored was observed since the temperature differences were small enough to result in insignificant sensible heat deviation. A simulation cost-effectiveness index (CEI) considering accuracy and computational affordability was introduced; the CEI of the RCM solver is 10 3 times better compared to CFD for the prediction of local PCM temperature.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Resilience-Motivated Distribution System Restoration Considering Electricity-Water-Gas Interdependency

A major outage in the electricity distribution system may affect the operation of water and natural gas supply systems, leading to an interruption of multiple services to critical customers. Therefore, enhancing resilience of critical infrastructures requires joint efforts of multiple sectors. In this paper, a distribution system service restoration method considering the electricity-water-gas interdependency is proposed. The objective is maximizing the supply of electricity, water, and gas to critical customers after an extreme event. The operational constraints of electricity, water, and natural gas networks are considered. Additionally, the characteristics of electricity-driven coupling components, including water pumps and gas compressors, are also modeled. Relaxation techniques are applied to non convex constraints posed by physical laws of those networks. Consequently, the restoration problem is formulated as a mixed-integer second-order cone program, which can readily be solved by the off-the-shelf solvers. The proposed method is validated by numerical simulations on an electricity-water-gas integrated system, developed based on benchmark models of the subsystems. The results indicate that considering the interdependency refines the allocation of limited generation resources and demonstrate the exactness of the proposed convex relaxation

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Transient conduction-radiation analysis of an absolute active cavity radiometer using finite elements

A NASA-developed finite element-based model of a generic active cavity radiometer (ACR) has been developed in order to study the dependence on operating temperature of the closed-loop and open-loop transient response of the instrument. Transient conduction within the sensing element is explored, and the transient temperature distribution resulting from the application of a time-varying radiative boundary condition is calculated. The results verify the prediction that operation of an ACR at cryogenic temperatures results in large gains in frequency response.

Mahan, J. R.↗

Solar water heating system for a lunar base

An investigation of the feasibility of using a solar water heater for a lunar base is described. During the investigation, computer codes were developed to model the lunar base configuration, lunar orbit, and heating systems. Numerous collector geometries, orientation variations, and system options were identified and analyzed. The results indicate that the recommended solar water heater could provide 88 percent of the design load and would not require changes in the overall lunar base design. The system would give a 'safe-haven' water heating capability and use only 7 percent to 10 percent as much electricity as an electric heating system. As a result, a fixed position photovoltaic array can be reduced by 21 sq m.

Somers, Richard E.↗

Specialized data analysis of SSME and advanced propulsion system vibration measurements

The basic objectives of this contract were to perform detailed analysis and evaluation of dynamic data obtained during Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) test and flight operations, including analytical/statistical assessment of component dynamic performance, and to continue the development and implementation of analytical/statistical models to effectively define nominal component dynamic characteristics, detect anomalous behavior, and assess machinery operational conditions. This study was to provide timely assessment of engine component operational status, identify probable causes of malfunction, and define feasible engineering solutions. The work was performed under three broad tasks: (1) Analysis, Evaluation, and Documentation of SSME Dynamic Test Results; (2) Data Base and Analytical Model Development and Application; and (3) Development and Application of Vibration Signature Analysis Techniques.

Coffin, Thomas↗

Verification and validation of a reliable multicast protocol

This paper describes the methods used to specify and implement a complex communications protocol that provides reliable delivery of data in multicast-capable, packet-switching telecommunication networks. The protocol, called the Reliable Multicasting Protocol (RMP), was developed incrementally by two complementary teams using a combination of formal and informal techniques in an attempt to ensure the correctness of the protocol implementation. The first team, called the Design team, initially specified protocol requirements using a variant of SCR requirements tables and implemented a prototype solution. The second team, called the V&V team, developed a state model based on the requirements tables and derived test cases from these tables to exercise the implementation. In a series of iterative steps, the Design team added new functionality to the implementation while the V&V team kept the state model in fidelity with the implementation through testing. Test cases derived from state transition paths in the formal model formed the dialogue between teams during development and served as the vehicles for keeping the model and implementation in fidelity with each other. This paper describes our experiences in developing our process model, details of our approach, and some example problems found during the development of RMP.

Callahan, John R.↗

Toward fidelity between specification and implementation

This paper describes the methods used to specify and implement a complex communications protocol that provides reliable delivery of data in multicast-capable, packet-switching telecommunication networks. The protocol, called the Reliable Multicasting Protocol (RMP), was developed incrementally by two complementary teams using a combination of formal and informal techniques in an attempt to ensure the correctness of the protocol implementation. The first team, called the Design team, initially specified protocol requirements using a variant of SCR requirements tables and implemented a prototype solution. The second team, called the V&V team, developed a state model based on the requirements tables and derived test cases from these tables to exercise the implementation. In a series of iterative steps, the Design team added new functionality to the implementation while the V&V team kept the state model in fidelity with the implementation through testing. Test cases derived from state transition paths in the formal model formed the dialogue between teams during development and served as the vehicles for keeping the model and implementation in fidelity with each other. This paper describes our experiences in developing our process model, details of our approach, and some example problems found during the development of RMP.

Callahan, John R.↗

Muiti-Sensor Historical Climatology of Satellite-Derived Global Land Surface Moisture

A historical climatology of continuous satellite derived global land surface soil moisture is being developed. The data set consists of surface soil moisture retrievals from observations of both historical and currently active satellite microwave sensors, including Nimbus-7 SMMR, DMSP SSM/I, TRMM TMI, and AQUA AMSR-E. The data sets span the period from November 1978 through the end of 2006. The soil moisture retrievals are made with the Land Parameter Retrieval Model, a physically-based model which was developed jointly by researchers from the above institutions. These data are significant in that they are the longest continuous data record of observational surface soil moisture at a global scale. Furthermore, while previous reports have intimated that higher frequency sensors such as on SSM/I are unable to provide meaningful information on soil moisture, our results indicate that these sensors do provide highly useful soil moisture data over significant parts of the globe, and especially in critical areas located within the Earth's many arid and semi-arid regions.

Owe, Manfred↗

Two Unipolar Terminal-Attractor-Based Associative Memories

Two unipolar mathematical models of electronic neural network functioning as terminal-attractor-based associative memory (TABAM) developed. Models comprise sets of equations describing interactions between time-varying inputs and outputs of neural-network memory, regarded as dynamical system. Simplifies design and operation of optoelectronic processor to implement TABAM performing associative recall of images. TABAM concept described in "Optoelectronic Terminal-Attractor-Based Associative Memory" (NPO-18790). Experimental optoelectronic apparatus that performed associative recall of binary images described in "Optoelectronic Inner-Product Neural Associative Memory" (NPO-18491).

Liu, Hua-Kuang↗

2D-imaging of sampling-probe perturbations in laminar premixed flames using Kr X-ray fluorescence

The perturbation of the temperature field caused by a quartz sampling probe has been investigated in a fuel-rich low-pressure premixed ethylene/oxygen/argon/krypton flame using X-ray fluorescence. The experiments were performed at the 7-BM beamline at the Advanced Photon Source (APS) at the Argonne National Laboratory where a continuous beam of X-rays at 15 keV was used to excite krypton atoms that were added to the unburnt flame gases in a concentration of 5% (by volume). The resulting krypton X-ray fluorescence at 12.65 keV was collected and the spatially resolved signal was subsequently converted into the local temperature of the imaged spot. One and two dimensional scans of the temperature field were obtained by translating the entire flame chamber through a pre-programmed sequence of positions on high precision translation stages and measuring the X-ray fluorescence at each location. Multiple measurements were performed at various separations between the burner surface and probe tip, representing sampling positions from the preheat, reaction, and postflame zones of the low-pressure flame. Distortions of up to 1000 K of the burner-probe centerline flame temperature were found with the tip of the probe in the preheat zone and distortions of up to 500 K were observed with it in the reaction and postflame zones. Furthermore, perturbations of the temperature field have been revealed that radially reach as far as 20 mm from the burner-probe centerline and about 3 mm in front of the probe tip. Finally, these results clearly reveal the limitations of one-dimensional models for predicting flame-sampling experiments and comments are made with regard to model developments and validations based on quantitative speciation data from low-pressure flames obtained via intrusive sampling techniques.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Space Launch System Unsteady Forces Developed from Unsteady-Pressure-Sensitive-Paint–Based Corcos Model Parameters

During atmospheric ascent, launch vehicles (LVs) experience large dynamic loads at transonic conditions where aerodynamic buffet is most critical. To estimate buffet loads, coupled loads analyses typically utilize suitable forcing functions, called buffet forcing functions (BFFs). One of the key buffet environment contributors is the turbulent boundary layer (TBL) on the LV outer skin. The TBL-induced fluctuating pressures can be estimated using the widely-accepted Corcos model. In the context of transonic buffet, the performance of this model is not well established, partly because of lack of data. To fill this gap, NASA recently acquired extremely high-spatial-density data for the Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle, using the unsteady pressure sensitive paint (uPSP) optical measurement technique. A methodology is developed for validation of the Corcos model using these unique data, with a focus on the LV-design application. The model hypotheses are verified and the model parameters are empirically tuned. For selected panels on the vehicle, BFF coherence factors are derived based on the Corcos model and the associated panel BFFs are compared to uPSP data. It is shown that the modeled BFFs are in agreement with direct integration of uPSP data, except for regions where pressure fluctuations are spatially nonuniform. In those regions, the Corcos-based BFFs exhibit inherent limitations of BFF estimation methods that rely on discrete pressure measurements.

buffet↗