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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 811 records · Page 45
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Low-Power Deep Learning Inference using the SpiNNaker Neuromorphic Platform

n this presentation we will discuss recent results on using the SpiNNaker neuromorphic platform (48-chip model) for deep learning neural network inference. We use the Sandia Labs developed Whet stone spiking deep learning library to train deep multi-layer perceptrons and convolutional neural networks suitable for the spiking substrate on the neural hardware architecture. By using the massively parallel nature of SpiNNaker, we are able to achieve, under certain network topologies, substantial network tiling and consequentially impressive inference throughput. Such high-throughput systems may have eventual application in remote sensing applications where large images need to be chipped, scanned, and processed quickly. Additionally, we explore complex topologies that push the limits of the SpiNNaker routing hardware and investigate how that impacts mapping software-implemented networks to on-hardware instantiations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ripening of Rh Nanoparticle Catalysts in Reverse Water–Gas Shift via a Data-Driven Model Combining Physics, Theory, and Experiment

Degradation via sintering is an ongoing challenge that impedes the broad commercial success of supported metallic nanoparticle catalysts. To mitigate degradation via informed catalyst design and process operations, here we aim to disambiguate the underlying mechanisms of sintering by combining theory and experiment in a quantitative framework. While mechanistic sintering models exist, they only model a single sintering pathway, even though multiple sintering mechanisms can occur simultaneously or dominate at different stages of the process. Data-driven machine learning models have emerged as a means to represent complex processes through data regression. However, machine learning models have very large data needs and lack mechanistic insights due to their black-box encoding. To develop an interpretive model of catalyst degradation via sintering, we constructed a hybrid model combining mechanistic “physics-based” models and data-driven methods to obtain both reliable predictions and mechanistic insights regarding experimentally observed sintering phenomena. Focusing on nanoparticle sintering in the Rh–TiO 2 catalyst for the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, the hybrid model couples a mechanistic term for Ostwald ripening with energy values calculated via density functional theory (DFT) with a parametric, data-driven discrepancy function term for unmodeled mechanisms. The hybrid model is trained using Bayesian inference with data collected from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in situ experiments wherein average nanoparticle diameter versus time was measured at three relevant operating temperatures. The calibrated hybrid model results show that an Ostwald ripening-only model parameterized with fixed DFT energies does not fully capture the time and temperature dependence of the SAXS-observed sintering kinetics, and that an additional functional contribution, or DFT energy calibration, is required to reconcile simulation and experiment. Analysis of the hybrid-model error confirms that the hybrid model outperforms both the purely mechanistic and purely data-driven alternatives in terms of expected predictive accuracy for time-evolving average particle sizes. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that the Ostwald ripening mechanism is less important for explaining the sintering phenomena as operating temperature increases under an assumed fixed DFT parameterization. This could be explained in one of two ways: either latent, unmodeled sintering mechanisms dominate at higher temperatures, or the DFT uncertainty increases with temperature. The proposed modeling approach directly links theory to experiments and simulations via a statistical hybrid modeling framework and can be extended to other catalytic systems to improve predictive models and mechanistic understanding.

Bayesian hybrid modeling↗
DOE OSTI2023

Why the observed spin evolution of older-than-solar-like stars might not require a dynamo mode change

ABSTRACT The spin evolution of main-sequence stars has long been of interest for basic stellar evolution, stellar ageing, stellar activity, and consequent influence on companion planets. Observations of older-than-solar late-type main-sequence stars have been interpreted to imply that a change from a dipole-dominated magnetic field to one with more prominent higher multipoles might be necessary to account for the data. The spin-down models that lead to this inference are essentially tuned to the Sun. Here, we take a different approach that considers individual stars as fixed points rather than just the Sun. We use a time-dependent theoretical model to solve for the spin evolution of low-mass main-sequence stars that includes a Parker-type wind and a time-evolving magnetic field coupled to the spin. Because the wind is exponentially sensitive to the stellar mass over radius and the coronal base temperature, the use of each observed star as a separate fixed point is more appropriate and, in turn, produces a set of solution curves that produces a solution envelope rather than a simple line. This envelope of solution curves, unlike a single line fit, is consistent with the data and does not unambiguously require a modal transition in the magnetic field to explain it.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2023

pnnl/brain_ohsu

Light sheet microscopy has made possible the 3D imaging of both fixed and live biological tissue, with samples as large as the entire mouse brain. We fine-tuned an existing model, TrailMap, using expert labeled data from axonal structures in neocortex. Without changing the network architecture, we implemented nnU-Net framework modifications in data augmentation, data foreground sampling, window learning rate, and the inference overlap method. The resulting model from these combined approaches yielded an improved F1 score

Oostrom, Marjolein↗
DOE OSTI2025

Inferring fracture dilation and shear slip from surface deformation utilising trained surrogate models

An important task in energy and CO 2 storage (sequestration) in the subsurface is to verify that the surrounding fractures and faults are not activated, acting as leakage pathways. This is achievable through effective and efficient Measurement, Monitoring and Verification (MMV) plans. In this work, two surrogate models are trained to captures dilation (opening) and shear deformation of fractures, and the associated surface deformation. The trained surrogate model, based on conditional Generative-Adversarial Networks (cGAN) receives fracture apertures from dilational fractures together with fracture slips from shear fractures and predicts the combined surface deformation. An inversion algorithm based on Bayesian framework is proposed to identify the geometry of both types of fractures, as well as volume of dilational fractures and deformation moment induced by shear fractures, all from the measured surface deformation data. The inversion algorithm utilises the Differential Evolution (DE) optimisation technique that has the superior performance in finding the global minimum of cost function. The proposed surrogate-assisted inversion successfully inferred the unknown dip, dip direction and the volume of the dilational fractures as well as the induced deformation moment in shear fractures. The model was further tested for the inversion of a field hydraulic fracturing tilt dataset applying different scenarios with varying unknowns to show the model's performance, as well as incorporating shear deformation for better match with the observed data.

Dilation and shear↗
DOE OSTI2016

Cosmic logic: a computational model

We initiate a formal study of logical inferences in context of the measure problem in cosmology or what we call cosmic logic. We describe a simple computational model of cosmic logic suitable for analysis of, for example, discretized cosmological systems. The construction is based on a particular model of computation, developed by Alan Turing, with cosmic observers (CO), cosmic measures (CM) and cosmic symmetries (CS) described by Turing machines. CO machines always start with a blank tape and CM machines take CO's Turing number (also known as description number or Gödel number) as input and output the corresponding probability. Similarly, CS machines take CO's Turing number as input, but output either one if the CO machines are in the same equivalence class or zero otherwise. We argue that CS machines are more fundamental than CM machines and, thus, should be used as building blocks in constructing CM machines. We prove the non-computability of a CS machine which discriminates between two classes of CO machines: mortal that halts in finite time and immortal that runs forever. In context of eternal inflation this result implies that it is impossible to construct CM machines to compute probabilities on the set of all CO machines using cut-off prescriptions. The cut-off measures can still be used if the set is reduced to include only machines which halt after a finite and predetermined number of steps.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Uncertainty Analysis of Simulations of the Turn-of-the-Century Drought in the Western United States

Here, we perform the first uncertainty quantification analysis of the turn-of-the-century drought in the western United States using a large perturbed-parameter ensemble of the Community Atmosphere Model version 4.0 (CAM4). We develop several metrics to characterize the aridity bias, spatial extent, and tropical forcing of the drought and use statistical models to ascertain that the modeled drought was mainly sensitive to CAM4 parameters related to deep convection and clouds. Deep convection parameters account for over half the variance across the drought metrics. We employ observed estimates of these drought metrics to infer probability distributions of the model parameters that lead to a better agreement with observations, thereby providing guidance on how to improve the simulation of drought in CAM4. We find that in some cases, the suggested parameter values that improve the simulation of one drought characteristic would degrade the simulation of another, suggesting that there is a complex relationship between the model parameters and drought in the western United States. We also demonstrate reductions in the uncertainty of the drought metrics of up to 30% by constraining with observations of all metrics. Additionally, we demonstrate for the first time that improvements to the simulation of the spatial extent of the turn-of-the-century drought also lead to improvements in the spatial extent of the Australian Millennium drought, suggesting that physics of drought as encoded by the model parameters may be generalizable.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement uncertainty of rossi-alpha neutron experiments

Rossi-alpha neutron experiments are used to estimate the prompt neutron decay constant of a fissile assembly, a quantity of widespread interest in applications including in nuclear nonproliferation and criticality safety. This work develops a mathematical model to efficiently estimate measurement uncertainty of Rossi-alpha neutron experiments inferred from a two-exponential fit model with histogram binning. The derived uncertainty estimates were validated using repeated Rossi-alpha measurements of a subcritical, 4.5-kg sphere of weapons-grade, alpha-phase plutonium with nickel, copper, tungsten, and polyethylene reflectors. The estimates of uncertainty for the histogram data produced by the model were conservative and agree with the reference uncertainties within noise. The estimates of the prompt neutron decay constant uncertainty agreed with the reference uncertainties within one standard deviation. In conclusion, the proposed model will reduce total measurement times, ultimately reducing operational and procedural costs in application.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Inference of neutrino flavor evolution through data assimilation and neural differential equations

The evolution of neutrino flavor in dense environments such as core-collapse supernovae and binary compact object mergers constitutes an important and unsolved problem. Its solution has potential implications for the dynamics and heavy-element nucleosynthesis in these environments. In this paper, we build upon recent work to explore inference-based techniques for the estimation of model parameters and neutrino flavor evolution histories. Here, we combine data assimilation, ordinary differential equation solvers, and neural networks to craft an inference approach tailored for nonlinear dynamical systems. Using this architecture, and a simple two-neutrino-beam, two-flavor model, we compare the performances of nine different optimization algorithms and expand upon previous assessments of the efficacy of inference for tackling problems in flavor evolution. We find that employing this new architecture, together with evolutionary optimization algorithms, accurately captures flavor histories in the small-scale model and allows us to quickly explore both model parameters and initial flavor content. In future work we plan to extend these inference techniques to large numbers of neutrinos.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Amortized simulation-based frequentist inference for tractable and intractable likelihoods

Abstract High-fidelity simulators that connect theoretical models with observations are indispensable tools in many sciences. If the likelihood is known, inference can proceed using standard techniques. However, when the likelihood is intractable or unknown, a simulator makes it possible to infer the parameters of a theoretical model directly from real and simulated observations when coupled with machine learning. We introduce an extension of the recently proposed likelihood-free frequentist inference ( LF2I ) approach that makes it possible to construct confidence sets with the p -value function and to use the same function to check the coverage explicitly at any given parameter point. Like LF2I , this extension yields provably valid confidence sets in parameter inference problems for which a high-fidelity simulator is available. The utility of our algorithm is illustrated by applying it to three pedagogically interesting examples: the first is from cosmology, the second from high-energy physics and astronomy, both with tractable likelihoods, while the third, with an intractable likelihood, is from epidemiology 3 3 Code to reproduce all of our results is available on https://github.com/AliAlkadhim/ALFFI . .

Computer Science↗
DOE OSTI2024

Old-Aged groundwater contributes to mountain hillslope hydrologic dynamics

Understanding connectivity between the soil and deeper bedrock groundwater is needed to accurately predict a watershed’s response to perturbation, such as drought. Yet, the bedrock groundwater dynamics in mountainous environments are typically under-constrained and excluded from watershed hydrologic models. Here, we investigate the role of groundwater characterized with decadal and longer water ages on the hydrologic and mass-transport processes within a steep snow-dominated mountain hillslope in the Central Rocky Mountains (USA). We quantify subsurface and surface water mass-balance, groundwater flowpaths, and age distributions using the ParFlow-CLM integrated hydrologic and EcoSLIM particle tracking models, which are compared to hydrometric and environmental tracer observations. An ensemble of models with varied soil and hydrogeologic parameters reproduces observed groundwater levels and century-scale mean ages inferred from environmental tracers. The numerical models suggest soil water near the toe of the hillslope contains considerable (>60 % of the mass-flux) contributions from bedrock flowpaths characterized with water ages >10 years. Flowpath connectivity between the deeper bedrock and soil systems is present throughout the year, highlighting the potentially critical role of groundwater with old ages on processes such as evapotranspiration and streamflow generation. The coupled numerical model and groundwater age observations show the bedrock groundwater system influences the hillslope hydrodynamics and should be considered in mountain watershed conceptual and numerical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of hydrometeorological influences on reservoir releases using explainable machine learning methods

Long short-term memory (LSTM) networks have demonstrated successful applications in accurately and efficiently predicting reservoir releases from hydrometeorological drivers including reservoir storage, inflow, precipitation, and temperature. However, due to its black-box nature and lack of process-based implementation, we are unsure whether LSTM makes good predictions for the right reasons. In this work, we use an explainable machine learning (ML) method, called SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to evaluate the variable importance and variable-wise temporal importance in the LSTM model prediction. In application to 30 reservoirs over the Upper Colorado River Basin, United States, we show that LSTM can accurately predict the reservoir releases with NSE ≥ 0.69 for all the considered reservoirs despite of their diverse storage sizes, functionality, elevations, etc. Additionally, SHAP indicates that storage and inflow are more influential than precipitation and temperature. Moreover, the storage and inflow show a relatively long-term influence on the release up to 7 days and this influence decreases as the lag time increases for most reservoirs. These findings from SHAP are consistent with our physical understanding. However, in a few reservoirs, SHAP gives some temporal importances that are difficult to interpret from a hydrological point of view, probably because of its ignorance of the variable interactions. SHAP is a useful tool for black-box ML model explanations, but the hydrological processes inferred from its results should be interpreted cautiously. More investigations of SHAP and its applications in hydrological modeling is needed and will be pursued in our future study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Spatio-temporal Estimates of Disease Transmission Parameters for COVID-19 with a Fully-Coupled, County-Level Model of the United States

Sandia National Laboratories has developed a capability to estimate parameters of epidemiological models from case reporting data to support responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. A differentiating feature of this work is the ability to simultaneously estimate county-specific disease transmission parameters in a nation-wide model that considers mobility between counties. The approach is focused on estimating parameters in a stochastic SEIR model that considers mobility between model patches (i.e., counties) as well as additional infectious compartments. The inference engine developed by Sandia includes (1) reconstruction and (2) transmission parameter inference. Reconstruction involves estimating current population counts within each of the compartments in a modified SEIR model from reported case data. Reconstruction produces input for the inference formulations, and it provides initial conditions that can be used in other modeling and planning efforts. Inference involves the solution of a large-scale optimization problem to estimate the time profiles for the transmission parameters in each county. These provide quantification of changes in the transmission parameter over time (e.g., due to impact of intervention strategies). This capability has been implemented in a Python-based software package, epi_inference, that makes extensive use of Pyomo [5] and IPOPT [10] to formulate and solve the inference formulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermal and magnetic evolution of a crystallizing basal magma ocean in Earth's mantle

We present the thermochemical evolution of a downward crystallizing basal magma ocean (BMO) overlying the liquid outer core and probe its capability to dissipate enough power to generate and sustain an early dynamo. Furthermore, a total of 61 out of 112 scenarios for a BMO with imposed, present-day heat flux, Q BMO , values of 15, 18, and 21 TW and radiogenic heat, Q r , values of 4, 8, and 12 TW fully crystallized during the age of the Earth. Most of these models are energetically capable of inducing magnetic activity for the first 1.5 Gyrs, at least, with durations extending to 2.5 Gyrs; with final core-mantle boundary (CMB) temperatures of 4400 ±500 K-well within current best estimates for inferred temperatures. None of the models with Q BMO = 12 TW achieved a fully crystallized state, which may reflect a lower bound on the present-day heat flux across the CMB. BMO-powered dynamos exhibit strong dependence on the partition coefficient of iron into the liquid layer and its associated melting-point depression for a lower mantle composition at near-CMB conditions-parameters which are poorly constrained to date. Nonetheless, we show that a crystallizing BMO is a plausible mechanism to sustain an early magnetic field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

New approaches to Bayesian uncertainty quantification for Nuclear Science (Final Technical Report)

Inverse problems play a central role in experimentation and theory/data comparisons for many areas of modern Nuclear Physics (NP) and High-Energy Physics (HEP). Bayes’s Theorem is a powerful tool for solving Inverse Problems, providing conceptually transparent and unbiased constraints on theoretical parameters and their uncertainties (“Bayesian Inference”) and enabling the quantification of agreement or tension between models and data. However, analyses based on Bayesian Inference are often challenging for NP and HEP applications, either because of the large number of parameters in the problem, the high computational cost, or both. We propose a multi-institutional collaboration to develop and deploy novel Bayesian analysis tools that advance the scientific scope of a broad range of current and future NP experiments. This project brings together NP domain scientists working on several high-profile NP projects for which new, high-performance Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification (“Bayesian UQ”) methods are essential to carry out the science, and data scientists who are developing state-of-the-art methods applicable to these problems. The NP projects in this proposal comprise measurements of the mass and fundamental nature of the neutrino; study of the Quark-Gluon Plasma that filled the early universe; and mapping of natural and anthropogenic radiation environments. While these NP projects have very different scientific goals, with datasets and analysis approaches that differ significantly, they share common requirements for improving computationally intensive Bayesian analyses using advanced Machine Learning algorithms and will benefit strongly from a coherent effort to develop general solutions. This proposal brings together these projects and forefront ML-based data science algorithms to develop such general solutions. The methods developed in this project will also be more widely applicable, thereby advancing science in the larger Nuclear Physics portfolio.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Quantification of early nonpharmaceutical interventions aimed at slowing transmission of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the Navajo Nation and surrounding states (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah)

During an early period of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, the Navajo Nation, much like New York City, experienced a relatively high rate of disease transmission. Yet, between January and October 2020, it experienced only a single period of growth in new COVID-19 cases, which ended when cases peaked in May 2020. The daily number of new cases slowly decayed in the summer of 2020 until late September 2020. In contrast, the surrounding states of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah all experienced at least two periods of growth in the same time frame, with second surges beginning in late May to early June. Here, we investigated these differences in disease transmission dynamics with the objective of quantifying the contributions of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) (e.g., behaviors that limit disease transmission). We considered a compartmental model accounting for distinct periods of NPIs to analyze the epidemic in each of the five regions. We used Bayesian inference to estimate region-specific model parameters from regional surveillance data (daily reports of new COVID-19 cases) and to quantify uncertainty in parameter estimates and model predictions. Our results suggest that NPIs in the Navajo Nation were sustained over the period of interest, whereas in the surrounding states, NPIs were relaxed, which allowed for subsequent surges in cases. Our region-specific model parameterizations allow us to quantify the impacts of NPIs on disease incidence in the regions of interest.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗