Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Measurement uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 811 records · Page 45

Measurement of the Higgs boson mass with H → γγ decays in 140 fb –1 of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

The mass of the Higgs boson is measured in the H→γγ decay channel, exploiting the high resolution of the invariant mass of photon pairs reconstructed from the decays of Higgs bosons produced in proton–proton collisions at a centre-of-mass energy $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV. The dataset was collected between 2015 and 2018 by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider, and corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 140 fb –1 . The measured value of the Higgs boson mass is 125.17 ± 0.11(stat.) ± 0.09(syst.) GeV and is based on an improved energy scale calibration for photons, whose impact on the measurement is about four times smaller than in the previous publication. A combination with the corresponding measurement using 7 and 8 TeV pp collision ATLAS data results in a Higgs boson mass measurement of 125.22 ± 0.11(stat.) ± 0.09(syst.) GeV. With an uncertainty of 1.1 per mille, this is currently the most precise measurement of the mass of the Higgs boson from a single decay channel.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Dark energy survey year 3 results: likelihood-free, simulation-based w CDM inference with neural compression of weak-lensing map statistics

We present simulation-based cosmological wcold dark matter (wCDM) inference using dark energy survey year 3 weak-lensing maps, via neural data compression of weak-lensing map summary statistics: power spectra, peak counts, and direct map-level compression/inference with convolutional neural networks (CNN). Using simulation-based inference, also known as likelihood-free or implicit inference, we use forward-modelled mock data to estimate posterior probability distributions of unknown parameters. This approach allows all statistical assumptions and uncertainties to be propagated through the forward-modelled mock data; these include sky masks, non-Gaussian shape noise, shape measurement bias, source galaxy clustering, photometric redshift uncertainty, intrinsic galaxy alignments, non-Gaussian density fields, neutrinos, and non-linear summary statistics. We include a series of tests to validate our inference results. This paper also describes the Gower Street simulation suite: 791 full-sky pkdgrav3 dark matter simulations, with cosmological model parameters sampled with a mixed active-learning strategy, from which we construct over 3000 mock dark energy survey lensing data sets. For wCDM inference, for which we allow –1 < w < –$\frac{1}{3}$⁠, our most constraining result uses power spectra combined with map-level (CNN) inference. Using gravitational lensing data only, this map-level combination gives Ω m = 0.283$^{+0.020}_{–0.027}$⁠, S 8 = 0.804$^{+0.025}_{–0.017⁠}$, and w < –0.80 (with a 68 per cent credible interval); compared to the power spectrum inference, this is more than a factor of two improvement in dark energy parameter (Ω⁠ DE , w⁠) precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measurement of elliptic flow of 𝐽/𝜓 in $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV ⁢Au + Au collisions at forward rapidity

Here, we report the first measurement of the azimuthal anisotropy of 𝐽/𝜓 at forward rapidity (1.2 < |𝜂| < 2.2) in Au + Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider. The data were collected by the PHENIX experiment in 2014 and 2016 with integrated luminosity of 14.5 nb −1 . The second Fourier coefficient (𝑣 2 ) of the azimuthal distribution of 𝐽/𝜓 is determined as a function of the transverse momentum (𝑝𝑇) using the event-plane method. The measurements were performed for several selections of collision centrality: 0%–50%, 10%–60%, and 10%–40%. We find that in all cases the values of 𝑣 2 ⁡(𝑝 𝑇 ), which quantify the elliptic flow of 𝐽/𝜓, are consistent with zero. Within uncertainties, the results are consistent with measurements at midrapidity, indicating no significant elliptic flow of the 𝐽/𝜓 within the quark-gluon-plasma medium at collision energies of $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

LLNL International Working Group on Gamma Spectrometry - Preparation of IDB Dataset

The spectral information and associated metadata, including source information, detector setup, and shielding configuration is described in human readable, comma-separated text files (csv). Five csv files are associated with each material type and include the following information (where [Isotope] is U, Pu, and MOX): [Isotope]_measurement_metadata - Metadata of the measurement configuration, including material composition at time of acquisition (decay corrected from certificate date). Data that is unique to a measurement configuration e.g. detector geometry, source-detector distance, analyzer and other electronics used, attenuating materials are provided in this file. [Isotope]_spectrum_metadata - The information that is unique to the spectrum. This includes detector specifications (e.g. date of acquisition, number of channels, gain (keV/channel), energy range, real and live time, full width half-maximum (FWHM) of the 186 or 208 peak for uranium or plutonium measurements, respectively. [Isotope]_source_metadata - The source material used for the measurement, this includes the ratio and uncertainties of isotopes present and processing information of the material. In addition, the certificate information for the source material is listed. [Isotope]_spectrum_counts_metadata - The counts per channel for each spectrum. This data is linked via the UID.spectrum index to the measurement_metadata file. [Isotope]_spectrum_checksum_metadata The MD5 checksum for the original spectrum file. This data is linked via the UID.spectrum index to the measurement_metadata file. This information is provided to prevent duplication of entries in the database.

42 ENGINEERING↗

LLNL International Working Group on Gamma Spectrometry - Preparation of IDB Dataset [Slides]

The spectral information and associated metadata, including source information, detector setup, and shielding configuration is described in human readable, comma-separated text files (csv). Six csv files are associated with each material type and include the following information (where [Isotope] is U, Pu, and MOX): [Isotope]_measurement_metadata Metadata of the measurement configuration, including material composition at time of acquisition (decay corrected from certificate date). Data that is unique to a measurement configuration e.g. detector geometry, source-detector distance, analyzer and other electronics used, attenuating materials are provided in this file. [Isotope]_spectrum_metadata The information that is unique to the spectrum. This includes detector specifications (e.g. date of acquisition, number of channels, gain (keV/channel), energy range, real and live time, full width half-maximum (FWHM) of the 186 or 208 peak for uranium or plutonium measurements, respectively. [Isotope]_source_metadata The source material used for the measurement, this includes the ratio and uncertainties of isotopes present and processing information of the material. In addition, the certificate information for the source material is listed. [Isotope]_spectrum_counts_metadata The counts per channel for each spectrum. This data is linked via the UID.spectrum index to the measurement_metadata file. [Isotope]_spectrum_checksum_metadata The MD5 checksum for the original spectrum file. This data is linked via the UID.spectrum index to the measurement_metadata file. This information is provided to prevent duplication of entries in the database. [Isotope]_provenance Details on the csv data provider, including laboratory and contract information.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

A Review of Parameter Ranges for Uncertainty Estimation for Decomposing Carbon Fiber Epoxy Composites

Carbon fiber epoxy composites are increasingly used in systems requiring a material that is both strong and light weight, as in airplanes, cars, and pressure vessels. In fire environments, carbon fiber epoxy composites are a fuel source subject to oxidation. This literature review seeks to provide material properties as well as uncertainty bounds for those properties for computational models of decomposing carbon fiber epoxy composites. The goal is to guide analysts when measurements are lacking and increase credibility of uncertainty quantification ranges.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Homogeneity, Heterogeneity and Uncertainty in Epic Shadow exercises [Slides]

High precision analyses demonstrate the ability to measure very small differences between sample aliquots. Is it appropriate for us to assume a homogenous sample in ES exercises? When running aliquots in triplicate should the data be averaged? If averaged what uncertainty should be applied, and what does the uncertainty describe? What is the most appropriate uncertainty to apply on single measurements?

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

LiG Metrology, Correlated Error, and the Integrity of the Global Surface Air-Temperature Record

The published 95% uncertainty of the global surface air-temperature anomaly (GSATA) record through 1980 is impossibly less than the 2σ = ±0.25 °C lower limit of laboratory resolution of 1 °C/division liquid-in-glass (LiG) thermometers. The ~0.7 °C/century Joule-drift of lead- and soft-glass thermometer bulbs renders unreliable the entire historical air-temperature record through the 19th century. A circa 1900 Baudin meteorological spirit thermometer bulb exhibited intense Pb X-ray emission lines (10.55, 12.66, and 14.76 keV). Uncorrected LiG thermometer non-linearity leaves 1σ = ±0.27 °C uncertainty in land-surface air temperatures prior to 1981. The 2σ = ±0.43 °C from LiG resolution and non-linearity obscures most of the 20th century GSATA trend. Systematic sensor-measurement errors are highly pair-wise correlated, possibly across hundreds of km. Non-normal distributions of bucket and engine-intake difference SSTs disconfirm the assumption of random measurement error. Semivariogram analysis of ship SST measurements yields half the error difference mean, ±½Δε 1,2, not the error mean. Transfer-function adjustment following a change of land station air-temperature sensor eliminates measurement independence and forward-propagates the antecedent uncertainty. LiG resolution limits, non-linearity, and sensor field calibrations yield GSATA mean ±2σ RMS uncertainties of, 1900–1945, ±1.7 °C; 1946–1980, ±2.1 °C; 1981–2004, ±2.0 °C; and 2005–2010, ±1.6 °C. Finally, the 20th century (1900–1999) GSATA, 0.74 ± 1.94 °C, does not convey any information about rate or magnitude of temperature change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

E-Area Low Level Waste Generator Inventory Uncertainty Estimation

This report describes the method used to estimate the uncertainty and bias in the low-level waste inventory, as reported by Waste Generators, for waste disposed in the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility at SRS. The waste cut uncertainty and bias is summed to calculate the current total uncertainty and bias in each disposal unit in the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility. This information is used to estimate the future uncertainty and bias when all disposal units are closed. For most waste cuts, there are two areas of inventory uncertainty and bias: in the isotopic characterization of the waste stream and in the measurement of total waste cut activity. Waste stream characterization is accomplished through a combination of process knowledge and analytical measurements. This characterization is documented by a technical baseline that describes the relative quantity of each isotope present in the waste stream. The total activity of each individual waste cut is usually measured directly or is calculated through a ratio of activity per weight or activity per volume. The waste cut total activity is multiplied by the waste stream isotopic fraction to calculate the total isotopic activity present in the waste cut. The waste cut uncertainty and bias is calculated by analyzing the uncertainties and biases in the waste stream characterization and waste cut measurements and adding the uncertainties in quadrature and multiplying the reported isotopic activities by the bias factors. The current isotopic inventory, uncertainty, and bias of a disposal unit is the sum of the currently disposed individual waste cut isotopic activities, uncertainties, and biases. The future uncertainty and bias is estimated based on the average “worst-case” (largest) uncertainties and biases of currently closed and operational disposal units. This report details the method, data sources, and calculation techniques used to calculate these values. It also presents some of the difficulties in working with the reported data and gives examples of the calculations and analysis. The software used to carryout the analysis is included and the location of the complete individual analyses is given. After discussion with waste generators, examination of multiple waste characterization documents, and a review of SRS Manual 1S, the reported ELLWF radionuclide activities are clearly conservative and likely represent reasonable upper bounds for the true activities. However, quantifying the bias and uncertainty in each waste cut requires detailed analysis of the documentation for each waste cut measurement and waste stream characterization.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Probabilistic Analysis of Uncertainty in ATRC Flux Profiles

ATRC is a replica of the larger ATR design and is used to conduct research and obtain data such as flux measurements, excess reactivity, and loading requirements before being loaded into ATR. One method for determining the impact an experiment will have at ATR is by looking at the axial flux profile along the fuel rod in the corresponding ATRC experiment; however, flux wand measurements includes large amounts of variation which makes drawing conclusions from the data difficult. This poster describes a definitive method to propagate the uncertainty from ATRC measurements using Python code.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Antiproton bounds on dark matter annihilation from a combined analysis using the DRAGON2 code

Abstract Early studies of the AMS-02 antiproton ratio identified a possible excess over the expected astrophysical background that could be fit by the annihilation of a weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP). However, recent efforts have shown that uncertainties in cosmic-ray propagation, the antiproton production cross-section, and correlated systematic uncertainties in the AMS-02 data, may combine to decrease or eliminate the significance of this feature. We produce an advanced analysis using the DRAGON2 code which, for the first time, simultaneously fits the antiproton ratio along with multiple secondary cosmic-ray flux measurements to constrain astrophysical and nuclear uncertainties. Compared to previous work, our analysis benefits from a combination of: (1) recently released AMS-02 antiproton data, (2) updated nuclear fragmentation cross-section fits, (3) a rigorous Bayesian parameter space scan that constrains cosmic-ray propagation parameters.We find no statistically significant preference for a dark matter signal and set strong constraints on WIMP annihilation tobb̅, ruling out annihilation at the thermal cross-section for dark matter masses below ∼ 200 GeV. We do find a positive residual that is consistent with previous work, and can be explained by a ∼ 70 GeV WIMP annihilating below the thermal cross-section. However, our default analysis finds this excess to have a local significance of only 2.8σ, which is decreased to 1.8σwhen the look-elsewhere effect is taken into account.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Updating the BNB Flux Prediction at SBND

Precise, accurate neutrino flux predictions for neutrino beam experiments are crucial for physics results. Flux uncertainties contribute significantly to the total systematic uncertainties seen in modern accelerator neutrino measurements such as cross sections, oscillations, and BSM studies.. For over a decade, experiments utilizing Fermilab’s Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) have relied on the 2009 MiniBooNE flux prediction. However, the high-statistics era of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program, with both SBND and ICARUS now operating, demands a modernized flux model and framework. While SBND is using the MiniBooNE flux model for its Generation 1 analyses, including many upcoming cross section measurements, future work will be based on a new flux model. In this talk, the ongoing work towards this new model will be outlined, including a new simulation framework (G4BNB), a new evaluation of model parameters from hadron scattering data, and a new framework for evaluating systematic uncertainties (BNBFP). Additionally, expansions to the flux model to include BSM contributions from neutral mesons will be discussed, as well as the PRISM capabilities of SBND to observe a wide range of off axis angles of the neutrino beam.

Paton, Josephine [Fermilab]↗

Updating the BNB Flux Prediction at SBND

Precise, accurate neutrino flux predictions for neutrino beam experiments are crucial for physics results. Flux uncertainties contribute significantly to the total systematic uncertainties seen in modern accelerator neutrino measurements such as cross sections, oscillations, and BSM studies.. For over a decade, experiments utilizing Fermilab’s Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) have relied on the 2009 MiniBooNE flux prediction. However, the high-statistics era of the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program, with both SBND and ICARUS now operating, demands a modernized flux model and framework. While SBND is using the MiniBooNE flux model for its Generation 1 analyses, including many upcoming cross section measurements, future work will be based on a new flux model. In this talk, the ongoing work towards this new model will be outlined, including a new simulation framework (G4BNB), a new evaluation of model parameters from hadron scattering data, and a new framework for evaluating systematic uncertainties (BNBFP). Additionally, expansions to the flux model to include BSM contributions from neutral mesons will be discussed, as well as the PRISM capabilities of SBND to observe a wide range of off axis angles of the neutrino beam.

Paton, Josephine [Fermilab]↗

The 3 He BF 3 Giant Barrel (HeBGB) neutron detector

(α,n) reactions play an important role in nuclear astrophysics and applications and are an important background source in neutrino and dark matter detectors. Measurements of total (α,n) cross sections employing direct neutron detection often have a considerable systematic uncertainty associated with the energy-dependent neutron detection efficiency and the unknown initial neutron energy distribution. Furthermore, the 3 He BF 3 Giant Barrel (HeBGB) neutron detector was built at the Edwards Accelerator Laboratory at Ohio University to overcome this challenge. HeBGB offers a near-constant neutron detection efficiency of (7.5 ± 1.2)% over the neutron energy range 0.01 MeV–9.00 MeV, removing a significant source of systematic uncertainty present in earlier (α,n) cross section measurements.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Parameter Estimation of Deflagration Losses in a Rotating Detonation Engine

One of the practical challenges of the studies of rotating detonation engines (RDEs) is the direct estimation of losses from experimental measurements. This study attempts at resolving this limitation by combining a reduced order model (ROM) of the detonation wave characteristics with a Markov chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation framework. The model considers simple deflagration losses and the overall impact of deflagration on RDE performance. To evaluate this model, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling technique was applied to estimate the loss parameters within the model for a set of conditions operated in hydrogen-air over a range of mass flow rates and equivalence ratios. The MCMC parameter estimation framework allowed for the determination of a posterior distribution of the loss parameters for each test condition, an examination of the correlation between the loss parameters and measured performance metrics of the RDE, and an uncertainty propagation of these parameters. The predicted model loss parameters were then compared to indirect experimental measurements of the deflagration combustion fractions to evaluating the validity of the approach, and shed light on the benefits and drawbacks of the model, measurement techniques, and the estimation framework.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

The Pixel Luminosity Telescope: a detector for luminosity measurement at CMS using silicon pixel sensors

The Pixel Luminosity Telescope is a silicon pixel detector dedicated to luminosity measurement at the CMS experiment at the LHC. It is located approximately 1.75 m from the interaction point and arranged into 16 “telescopes”, with eight telescopes installed around the beam pipe at either end of the detector and each telescope composed of three individual silicon sensor planes. The per-bunch instantaneous luminosity is measured by counting events where all three planes in the telescope register a hit, using a special readout at the full LHC bunch-crossing rate of 40 MHz. The full pixel information is read out at a lower rate and can be used to determine calibrations, corrections, and systematic uncertainties for the online and offline measurements. This paper details the commissioning, operational history, and performance of the detector during Run 2 (2015–18) of the LHC, as well as preparations for Run 3, which will begin in 2022.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Configuration and performance of the ATLAS b -jet triggers in Run 2

Several improvements to the ATLAS triggers used to identify jets containing b-hadrons (b-jets) were implemented for data-taking during Run 2 of the Large Hadron Collider from 2016 to 2018. These changes include reconfiguring the b-jet trigger software to improve primary-vertex finding and allow more stable running in conditions with high pile-up, and the implementation of the functionality needed to run sophisticated taggers used by the offline reconstruction in an online environment. These improvements yielded an order of magnitude better light-flavour jet rejection for the same b-jet identification efficiency compared to the performance in Run 1 (2011–2012). The efficiency to identify b-jets in the trigger, and the conditional efficiency for b-jets that satisfy offline b-tagging requirements to pass the trigger are also measured. Correction factors are derived to calibrate the b-tagging efficiency in simulation to match that observed in data. The associated systematic uncertainties are substantially smaller than in previous measurements. In addition, b-jet triggers were operated for the first time during heavy-ion data-taking, using dedicated triggers that were developed to identify semileptonic b-hadron decays by selecting events with geometrically overlapping muons and jets.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

State of Stress Uncertainty Quantification and Geomechanical Risk Analysis for Subsurface Engineering

All subsurface stress measurement methods available for deep subsurface applications are indirect and involve a significant amount of uncertainty. Quantifying these uncertainties is critical for applications where the state of stress is a component of a risk analysis with significant safety, environmental, and economic considerations. A publicly available and open source tool called the State of Stress Analysis Tool (SOSAT) has been developed to aid in performing a Bayesian uncertainty quantification and geomechanical risk analysis using many types of commonly available data. A new feature of this tool is using data from the FutureGen 2.0 site. The new feature of the tool was uses information about the absence or presence of borehole breakouts to constrain the state of stress. This new feature allows the user to specify probability distributions for the relevant parameters such as the drilling mud pressure, temperature, and the formation strength properties. The tool computes the posterior joint probability distribution of the horizontal principal stresses. Using random samples from this posterior distribution the tool then computes the probability of activating a critically oriented fault at a range of pore pressures. This latter feature can be used to aid in the assessment of the risk of induced seismicity and leakage in geologic carbon sequestration and enhanced geothermal systems.

Burghardt, Jeffrey A.↗