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NASA NTRS2013

A Kinematic Calibration Process for Flight Robotic Arms

The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) robotic arm is ten times more massive than any Mars robotic arm before it, yet with similar accuracy and repeatability positioning requirements. In order to assess and validate these requirements, a higher-fidelity model and calibration processes were needed. Kinematic calibration of robotic arms is a common and necessary process to ensure good positioning performance. Most methodologies assume a rigid arm, high-accuracy data collection, and some kind of optimization of kinematic parameters. A new detailed kinematic and deflection model of the MSL robotic arm was formulated in the design phase and used to update the initial positioning and orientation accuracy and repeatability requirements. This model included a higher-fidelity link stiffness matrix representation, as well as a link level thermal expansion model. In addition, it included an actuator backlash model. Analytical results highlighted the sensitivity of the arm accuracy to its joint initialization methodology. Because of this, a new technique for initializing the arm joint encoders through hardstop calibration was developed. This involved selecting arm configurations to use in Earth-based hardstop calibration that had corresponding configurations on Mars with the same joint torque to ensure repeatability in the different gravity environment. The process used to collect calibration data for the arm included the use of multiple weight stand-in turrets with enough metrology targets to reconstruct the full six-degree-of-freedom location of the rover and tool frames. The follow-on data processing of the metrology data utilized a standard differential formulation and linear parameter optimization technique.

Collins, Curtis L.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Hierarchical Coupling of Molecular Dynamics and Micromechanics to Predict the Elastic Properties of Three-Phase and Four-Phase Silicon Carbide Composites

The results obtained from previously conducted molecular dynamics analysis of silicon carbide (-SiC (6H, 4H, & 2H-SiC), -SiC (3C SiC)), silicon and boron nitride, were utilized as inputs in the MAC/GMC micromechanics software to model and evaluate the elastic properties of three-phase SiC/BN/SiC and four-phase SiC/BN/Si/SiC composites. This method of analysis eliminates the need for back-calculation of the apparent properties of the base constituents from the measured ceramic matrix composites properties. The multiscale models are validated against the available data in literature.

Aluko, Olanrewaju↗

DOE OSTI2021

Digital Twin Model for Advanced Manufacture of a Rotating Detonation Engine Injector

A digital twin material model (DTMM) of an additive manufacturing (AM) process was created to advance the state of the art in rotating detonation engine (RDE) injector design. Current RDE injectors are designed with large pressure drops, enabling a stable and repeatable combustion process. However, this comes at the cost of system efficiency. For the technology to transition to commercial fossil-based power generation, it is important to develop injectors with reduced flow losses. Low-loss injectors are difficult to design and manufacture with conventional manufacturing techniques. AM enables new design options, but the AM manufacturing process must be thoroughly understood to result in a robust design. A DTMM provides the necessary insight by defining the cause-effect relationships between process parameters, microstructure features, and properties. Therefore, a DTMM to support the design and manufacturing process was developed and applied to the design of a new additively manufactured low-loss injector. The injector combustion behavior was characterized through hot-fire tests, and mechanical performance was compared to the DTMM predictions. The two project goals were the successful development of the DTMM and the demonstration of an improved RDE injector design. The RDE injector design and DTMM developments occurred on parallel but dependent paths. The injector was designed to reduce pressure drop by increasing the cross-sectional flow area ratio between the injector air passages and the combustor annulus. This resulted in less structural material, raising the concern that thin members would be susceptible to high-cycle fatigue (HCF) under the periodic loading inherent to an RDE. It was most important for the DTMM to predict behavior in these features; therefore, the injector design concept guided the material thicknesses used in fatigue tests. The DTMM development started by manufacturing a series of coupons over the range of possible AM process variations. A design-of-experiment approach was used to select which process variable combinations gave the most efficient coverage relevant to the injector design space. The microstructure in each of these coupons was characterized, and then computational methods were used to create a numerical model of the correlation between process variables and microstructure. Next, a set of HCF samples were tested to calibrate existing models that map microstructure to HCF performance. Together, these two links formed the DTMM that calculates HCF behavior from AM process variables. Two injector prototypes were additively manufactured. The first injector design strategy aggressively pursued low-loss performance by substantially increasing the oxidizer flow area. The combination of manufacturing lead times and the fatigue testing schedule meant that the DTMM was not available when building this first prototype. Therefore, its process parameters were chosen based on a manual review of the available coupon data. This prototype was built successfully and evaluated in 58 combustion tests. Sustained detonation was achieved with remarkably reduced pressure loss, and some tests even displayed pressure loss characteristics similar to conventional gas turbine combustors. This achieved the project goal of improving RDE injector design. The second injector was manufactured according to the optimized parameters predicted by the DTMM. The flow area modifications of this injector were less aggressive than the first injector since demonstrating low pressure loss was not an objective of the second hot-fire test series. Rather, the test objective was to cause high cycle fatigue failure in the part due to periodic loading from the rotating detonation wave. The observed number of cycles to failure was to be compared to the number predicted by the DTMM and thereby assess the utility of the DTMM in component design. However, the required level of vibration was not obtained during combustion. Therefore, high cycle fatigue was not experienced in the hot-fire tests of the second injector. Fatigue data was obtained by further testing the second injector in a conventional HCF test apparatus. The injector demonstrated HCF strength above the DTMM prediction. In fact, it did not fail and testing was only discontinued due to reaching the end of the period of performance. This points to some success in the project’s primary goal of successfully developing and applying the DTMM to a component design. Implementing the DTMM recommendations for optimal processing parameters led to a part with acceptable properties. The DTMM was also shown to be an efficient correlator of data and to provide insight into the relationship between process settings, microstructure, and property performance. However, the failure of the DTMM prediction to match the experimental result of the injector fatigue test also points to the need to include significantly more data in the model development. In this project, coupons made with identical processing parameters exhibited drastically different properties from each other and from the injector part, which clearly influences the accuracy of a model that predicts performance based on parameters. Uncertainties in the build process must be quantified to develop more robust models. A denser and broader matrix of coupon process and geometry variations, several repeated builds of every point, more in-situ build process measurements, and direct observation of tensile and HCF sample microstructure (as opposed to separate microstructure specimens) are recommendations to improve future AM modeling efforts.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2015

Development and Characterization of a Rate-Dependent Three-Dimensional Macroscopic Plasticity Model Suitable for Use in Composite Impact Problems

Several key capabilities have been identified by the aerospace community as lacking in the material/models for composite materials currently available within commercial transient dynamic finite element codes such as LS-DYNA. Some of the specific desired features that have been identified include the incorporation of both plasticity and damage within the material model, the capability of using the material model to analyze the response of both three-dimensional solid elements and two dimensional shell elements, and the ability to simulate the response of composites composed with a variety of composite architectures, including laminates, weaves and braids. In addition, a need has been expressed to have a material model that utilizes tabulated experimentally based input to define the evolution of plasticity and damage as opposed to utilizing discrete input parameters (such as modulus and strength) and analytical functions based on curve fitting. To begin to address these needs, an orthotropic macroscopic plasticity based model suitable for implementation within LS-DYNA has been developed. Specifically, the Tsai-Wu composite failure model has been generalized and extended to a strain-hardening based orthotropic plasticity model with a non-associative flow rule. The coefficients in the yield function are determined based on tabulated stress-strain curves in the various normal and shear directions, along with selected off-axis curves. Incorporating rate dependence into the yield function is achieved by using a series of tabluated input curves, each at a different constant strain rate. The non-associative flow-rule is used to compute the evolution of the effective plastic strain. Systematic procedures have been developed to determine the values of the various coefficients in the yield function and the flow rule based on the tabulated input data. An algorithm based on the radial return method has been developed to facilitate the numerical implementation of the material model. The presented paper will present in detail the development of the orthotropic plasticity model and the procedures used to obtain the required material parameters. Methods in which a combination of actual testing and selective numerical testing can be combined to yield the appropriate input data for the model will be described. A specific laminated polymer matrix composite will be examined to demonstrate the application of the model.

Impact↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nanocomposite structure of two-line ferrihydrite powder from total scattering

Ferrihydrite is one of the most important iron-containing minerals on Earth. Yet determination of its atomic-scale structure has been frustrated by its intrinsically poor crystallinity. The key difficulty is that physically-different models can appear consistent with the same experimental data. Using X-ray total scattering and a nancomposite reverse Monte Carlo approach, we evaluate the two principal contending models—one a multi-phase system without tetrahedral iron(III), and the other a single phase with tetrahedral iron(III). Our methodology is unique in considering explicitly the complex nanocomposite structure the material adopts: namely, crystalline domains embedded in a poorly-ordered matrix. The multi-phase model requires unphysical structural rearrangements to fit the data, whereas the single-phase model accounts for the data straightforwardly. Hence the latter provides the more accurate description of the short- and intermediate-range order of ferrihydrite. We discuss how this approach might allow experiment-driven (in)validation of complex models for important nanostructured phases beyond ferrihydrite.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

RE-INTEGRATE EMT Simulation Software: Graph Convolutional Network for Sparse Matrix Pattern Detection

The increasing complexity of power networks, driven by proliferation of inverters, presents analytical challenges that simplified models often fail to capture, necessitating Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) simulations. EMT models are represented as discretized differential-algebraic equations (DAEs), forming a linear system Ax = b that is computationally intensive to solve. Due to inherent sparsity of adjacency matrix A, distinct patterns emerge that, when accurately identified, enable efficient solver selection to minimize computation time. However, identifying ideal pattern is complicated by numerous reordering algorithms and limited structural insights. To address this, we introduce a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) model for classifying sparse matrix patterns common in power system analysis. The model, achieving 96% test accuracy, is validated using PV plant models of 125 MW capacities connected to New England 39-bus transmission system (TS), and further scaled to a 4,992-bus network with 384 PV plants, yielding 191, 616 × 191, 616 sized A matrix. For all cases, the GCN model accurately identifies the matrix’s intrinsic sparse pattern, demonstrating its potential to enhance solver performance in EMT analysis.

Hossain, Md Rifat [Florida International Universit↗

NASA NTRS1987

Hub flexibility effects on propfan vibration

The significance of hub flexibility in the nonlinear static and dynamic analyses of advanced turboprop blades is assessed. The chosen blade is the 0.175 scale model of the GE-A7-B4 unducted fan blade. A procedure for coupling the effective hub stiffness matrix to an MSC/NASTRAN finite element model is defined and verified. A series of nonlinear static and dynamic analyses are conducted on the blade for both rigid and flexible hug configurations. Results indicate that hub flexibility is significant in the nonlinear static and dynamic analyses of the GE-A7-B4. In order to insure accuracy in analyses of other blades, hub flexibility should always be considered.

Ernst, Michael A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Evaluating Secondary Inorganic Aerosols in Three Dimensions

The spatial distribution of aerosols and their chemical composition dictates whether aerosols have a cooling or a warming effect on the climate system. Hence, properly modeling the three-dimensional distribution of aerosols is a crucial step for coherent climate simulations. Since surface measurement networks only give 2-D data, and most satellites supply integrated column information, it is thus important to integrate aircraft measurements in climate model evaluations. In this study, the vertical distribution of secondary inorganic aerosol (i.e., sulfate, ammonium, and nitrate) is evaluated against a collection of 14 AMS flight campaigns and surface measurements from 2000 to 2010 in the USA and Europe. GISS ModelE2 is used with multiple aerosol microphysics (MATRIX, OMA) and thermodynamic (ISORROPIA II, EQSAM) configurations. Our results show that the MATRIX microphysical scheme improves the model performance for sulfate, but that there is a systematic underestimation of ammonium and nitrate over the USA and Europe in all model configurations. In terms of gaseous precursors, nitric acid concentrations are largely underestimated at the surface while overestimated in the higher levels of the model. Heterogeneous reactions on dust surfaces are an important sink for nitric acid, even high in the troposphere. At high altitudes, nitrate formation is calculated to be ammonia limited. The underestimation of ammonium and nitrate in polluted regions is most likely caused by a too simplified treatment of the NH3/NH4(+) partitioning which affects the HNO3/NO3(-) partitioning.

aerosols↗

NASA NTRS1995

Expendable launch vehicle studies

Analytical support studies of expendable launch vehicles concentrate on the stability of the dynamics during launch especially during or near the region of maximum dynamic pressure. The in-plane dynamic equations of a generic launch vehicle with multiple flexible bending and fuel sloshing modes are developed and linearized. The information from LeRC about the grids, masses, and modes is incorporated into the model. The eigenvalues of the plant are analyzed for several modeling factors: utilizing diagonal mass matrix, uniform beam assumption, inclusion of aerodynamics, and the interaction between the aerodynamics and the flexible bending motion. Preliminary PID, LQR, and LQG control designs with sensor and actuator dynamics for this system and simulations are also conducted. The initial analysis for comparison of PD (proportional-derivative) and full state feedback LQR Linear quadratic regulator) shows that the split weighted LQR controller has better performance than that of the PD. In order to meet both the performance and robustness requirements, the H(sub infinity) robust controller for the expendable launch vehicle is developed. The simulation indicates that both the performance and robustness of the H(sub infinity) controller are better than that for the PID and LQG controllers. The modelling and analysis support studies team has continued development of methodology, using eigensensitivity analysis, to solve three classes of discrete eigenvalue equations. In the first class, the matrix elements are non-linear functions of the eigenvector. All non-linear periodic motion can be cast in this form. Here the eigenvector is comprised of the coefficients of complete basis functions spanning the response space and the eigenvalue is the frequency. The second class of eigenvalue problems studied is the quadratic eigenvalue problem. Solutions for linear viscously damped structures or viscoelastic structures can be reduced to this form. Particular attention is paid to Maxwell and Kelvin models. The third class of problems consists of linear eigenvalue problems in which the elements of the mass and stiffness matrices are stochastic. dynamic structural response for which the parameters are given by probabilistic distribution functions, rather than deterministic values, can be cast in this form. Solutions for several problems in each class will be presented.

Bainum, Peter M.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Matrix management for aerospace 2000

The martix management approach to program management is an organized effort for attaining program objectives by defining and structuring all elements so as to form a single system whose parts are united by interaction. The objective of the systems approach is uncompromisingly complete coverage of the program management endeavor. Starting with an analysis of the functions necessary to carry out a given program, a model must be defined; a matrix of responsibility assignment must be prepared; and each operational process must be examined to establish how it is to be carried out and how it relates to all other processes.

Mccarthy, J. F., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Robust root clustering for linear uncertain systems using generalized Lyapunov theory

Consideration is given to the problem of matrix root clustering in subregions of a complex plane for linear state space models with real parameter uncertainty. The nominal matrix root clustering theory of Gutman & Jury (1981) using the generalized Liapunov equation is extended to the perturbed matrix case, and bounds are derived on the perturbation to maintain root clustering inside a given region. The theory makes it possible to obtain an explicit relationship between the parameters of the root clustering region and the uncertainty range of the parameter space.

Yedavalli, R. K.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Acoustoelastic constants in dilute two-phase alloys

Acoustoelastic constants are calculated for two-phase alloys containing dilute concentrations of precipitates in a solid-solution matrix, on the basis of a model in which the precipitates are represented as a dilute elastic suspension of spherical particle inclusions in an infinite matrix. The longitudinal propagation velocity in the alloy is thereby obtained in terms of the precipitates' concentration and the elastic moduli of the two phases. Results are presented which indicate that the acoustoelastic constant of longitudinal waves in a dilute two-phase alloy varies linearly with the concentration of second-phase precipitates, in agreement with recent measurements in aluminum and steel alloys where the acoustoelastic constants changed linearly with the second phase's volume fraction.

Salama, K.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Significance of Low‐Velocity Zones on Solute Retention in Rough Fractures

Natural fractures are characterized by high internal heterogeneity. This internal variability is the cause of flow channeling, which in turn leads to contaminant transport taking place primarily along the high-velocity channels. Mass exchange between the high-velocity channels and the low-velocity zones has the potential to enhance contaminant retention, due to solute diffusion into the low-velocity zones and subsequent exposure to additional surface area for diffusion into the bordering rock matrix. Here, we derive a random walk particle tracking method for heterogeneous fractures, which includes an additional term to account for the aperture gradient. The method takes into account advection, diffusion in the fracture and matrix diffusion. The developed numerical framework is applied to assess the effect of low-velocity zones in rough self-affine fractures. The results show that diffusion into low-velocity zones has a visible but modest impact on contaminant retention. The magnitude of this impact does not change considerably, regardless of whether diffusion into the rock matrix is considered in the model, and increases for a decreasing average Péclet number of the fracture.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Phase diagram of the anisotropic triangular lattice Hubbard model

In a recent study [Phys. Rev. X 10, 021042 (2020)], we showed using large-scale density matrix renormalization group (DMRG) simulations on infinite cylinders that the triangular lattice Hubbard model has a chiral spin liquid phase. In this work, we introduce hopping anisotropy in the model, making one of the three distinct bonds on the lattice stronger or weaker compared with the other two. We implement the anisotropy in two inequivalent ways, one which respects the mirror symmetry of the cylinder and one which breaks this symmetry. In the full range of anisotropy, from the square lattice to weakly coupled one-dimensional chains, we find a variety of phases. Near the isotropic limit we find the three phases identified in our previous work: metal, chiral spin liquid, and 120$^\circ$ spiral order; we note that a recent paper suggests the apparently metallic phase may actually be a Luther-Emery liquid, which would also be in agreement with our results. Furthermore, when one bond is weakened by a relatively small amount, the ground state quickly becomes the square lattice N\'{e}el order. When one bond is strengthened, the story is much less clear, with the phases that we find depending on the orientation of the anisotropy and on the cylinder circumference. While our work is to our knowledge the first DMRG study of the anisotropic triangular lattice Hubbard model, the overall phase diagram we find is broadly consistent with that found previously using other methods, such as variational Monte Carlo and dynamical mean field theory.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Optimization Framework for Imperfect Data or Models

Conventional Bayesian optimization methods implicitly assume that the data and model being optimized are “perfect.” This assumption leads to inaccurate posterior probability distribution functions (PDFs) when applied to “imperfect” data or models. The new Bayesian optimization framework presented in this report provides a way to parameterize the effect of imperfections usually encountered in a prior PDF of generalized data or a model on the posterior PDF. The effects of imperfections are parameterized by a set of constraints imposed on the posterior expectation values of deviations between the data and the model and on their covariance matrix elements. A particular set of values for these constraints conveys an evaluator’s best estimate of the effect of imperfections on the corresponding posterior expectation values. When a prior PDF of generalized data is assumed to be normal, an expression for a posterior PDF satisfying an arbitrary set of constraints is derived analytically for linear models. An analogous iterative algorithm is given for nonlinear models. The corresponding posterior PDF should be used to estimate any posterior expectation values in the presence of imperfections parameterized by that set of constraints. A posterior PDF of a conventional Bayesian optimization method is recovered analytically when all evaluator-specified constraints are set to zero (i.e., in the absence of any imperfections). The analytical expressions derived in this report for normal PDFs and linear models were verified numerically by a Metropolis–Hastings Monte Carlo method. The methods presented herein could be applied to any kind of data or models, including differential cross-section data or integral benchmark experiments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2011

Improvements to a Response Surface Thermal Model for Orion Mated to the International Space Station

This study is an extension of previous work to evaluate the applicability of Design of Experiments (DOE)/Response Surface Methodology to on-orbit thermal analysis. The goal was to determine if the methodology could produce a Response Surface Equation (RSE) that predicted the thermal model temperature results within +/-10 F. An RSE is a polynomial expression that can then be used to predict temperatures for a defined range of factor combinations. Based on suggestions received from the previous work, this study used a model with simpler geometry, considered polynomials up to fifth order, and evaluated orbital temperature variations to establish a minimum and maximum temperature for each component. A simplified Outer Mold Line (OML) thermal model of the Orion spacecraft was used in this study. The factors chosen were the vehicle's Yaw, Pitch, and Roll (defining the on-orbit attitude), the Beta angle (restricted to positive beta angles from 0 to 75), and the environmental constants (varying from cold to hot). All factors were normalized from their native ranges to a non-dimensional range from -1.0 to 1.0. Twenty-three components from the OML were chosen and the minimum and maximum orbital temperatures were calculated for each to produce forty-six responses for the DOE model. A customized DOE case matrix of 145 analysis cases was developed which used analysis points at the factor corners, mid-points, and center. From this data set, RSE s were developed which consisted of cubic, quartic, and fifth order polynomials. The results presented are for the fifth order RSE. The RSE results were then evaluated for agreement with the analytical model predictions to produce a +/-3(sigma) error band. Forty of the 46 responses had a +/-3(sigma) value of 10 F or less. Encouraged by this initial success, two additional sets of verification cases were selected. One contained 20 cases, the other 50 cases. These cases were evaluated both with the fifth order RSE and with the analytical model. For the maximum temperature predictions, 12 of the 23 components had all predictions within +/-10 F and 17 were within +/-20 F. For the minimum temperature predictions, only 4 of the 23 components (the four radiator temperatures), were within the 10 F goal. The maximum temperature RSEs were then run through 59,049 screening cases. The RSE predictions were then filtered to find 55 cases that produced the hottest temperatures. These 55 cases were then analyzed using the thermal model and the results compared against the RSE predictions. As noted earlier, 12 of the 23 responses were within +/-10 F at 17 within +/-20 F. These results demonstrate that if properly formulated, an RSE can provide a reliable, fast temperature prediction. Despite this progress, additional work is needed to determine why the minimum temperatures responses and 6 of the hot temperature responses did not produce reliable RSEs. Recommend focus areas are the model itself (arithmetic vs. diffusion nodes) and seeking consultations with statistical application experts.

Miller, StephenW.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Random Matrix Approach to Quantum Adiabatic Evolution Algorithms

We analyze the power of quantum adiabatic evolution algorithms (Q-QA) for solving random NP-hard optimization problems within a theoretical framework based on the random matrix theory (RMT). We present two types of the driven RMT models. In the first model, the driving Hamiltonian is represented by Brownian motion in the matrix space. We use the Brownian motion model to obtain a description of multiple avoided crossing phenomena. We show that the failure mechanism of the QAA is due to the interaction of the ground state with the "cloud" formed by all the excited states, confirming that in the driven RMT models. the Landau-Zener mechanism of dissipation is not important. We show that the QAEA has a finite probability of success in a certain range of parameters. implying the polynomial complexity of the algorithm. The second model corresponds to the standard QAEA with the problem Hamiltonian taken from the Gaussian Unitary RMT ensemble (GUE). We show that the level dynamics in this model can be mapped onto the dynamics in the Brownian motion model. However, the driven RMT model always leads to the exponential complexity of the algorithm due to the presence of the long-range intertemporal correlations of the eigenvalues. Our results indicate that the weakness of effective transitions is the leading effect that can make the Markovian type QAEA successful.

Boulatov, Alexei↗

DOE OSTI2022

Role of climate goals and clean-air policies on reducing future air pollution deaths in China: a modelling study

Over 3 million people still die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor PM 2.5 air pollution, and more than a quarter of these premature deaths occur in China. In addition to clean air policies that target pollution emissions, climate policies aimed at reducing fossil-fuel CO 2 emissions (e.g., to avoid 1.5°C of warming) may also dramatically improve air quality and public health. Yet there has been no comprehensive accounting of public health outcomes under different energy pathways and local clean air management decisions in China. In particular, further research is needed to understand the relationships among climate and clean air polices and future health burdens in China, where an aging population will further exacerbate the impacts of air pollution. Using a China-focused integrated assessment model (GCAM-China) and a dynamic emission projection model (DPEC), we project future Chinese air quality in scenarios spanning a range of global climate targets (i.e. 1.5°0C, 2°C, NDC, unambitious, baseline, and 4.5°C) as well as national clean air actions (i.e. 2015-pollution, current-pollution, and ambitious-pollution). We then evaluate the health impacts of PM2·5 air pollution of scenario matrix using the chemical transport model WRF-CMAQ and the latest epidemiological concentration–response (C-R) functions (i.e. GBD2019). We find that, without ambitious climate mitigation (e.g., under current NDC pledges), Chinese deaths related the PM2.5 air pollution do not substantially decrease—and often grow—by mid-century, regardless of clean air policies and air quality improvements. For example, in scenarios that track China’s current NDC pledge and deploy best-available pollution control technologies, PM 2.5 -related deaths in China decrease slightly by 2030 (to 1.2 million per year) but no further by mid-century (Ambitious-pollution-NDC-goals; 1.2 million deaths in 2050) despite substantial and continuous improvements in population-weighted air quality (27.2 to 16.0 µg/m 3 from 2030 to 2050). The contrary trends of improving air quality and increasing PM 2·5 -related deaths in many of our scenarios reveals the extent to which extra efforts are needed to compensate for the established fact of increasing age of China’s population in future. Substantial decreases in China’s PM 2.5 -related deaths and age-standardized death rates (e.g., decreasing by 0.3–0.5 million deaths and 10.2–14.2 per 100,000 population age-standardized death rates per year) thus require the sort of large-scale transition in energy sources entailed by scenarios that meet international climate goals to avoid 1.5°C and 2°C of warming (Ambitious-pollution-2°C- and 1.5°C-goals).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗