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At least 811 records · Page 45

Accelerating Thermochemical Equilibrium Calculations for Nuclear Reactor Applications

Thermochemical properties play a key role in modeling and simulation of several key phenomena in nuclear reactors. There has been an increasing interest in incorporating CALPHAD-based formulations in multiphysics simulations including for Molten Salt Reactors where knowledge of phase evolution of the salt and the chemical potentials of various elements are of utmost importance in source term analyses and redox control. However, the size of such simulations is often limited by the high computational cost of full thermodynamic equilibrium calculations. This work discusses the current efforts aimed at accelerating thermochemical equilibrium calculations for multiphysics simulations performed using the open-source finite element / finite volume code Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) [1]. While several methods have been proposed for accelerating phase equilibrium calculations [2], most focus on relatively small systems and often rely on a- priori knowledge of the state-space of the system. Nuclear materials, however, are often multi-component systems owing to the evolution of composition under irradiation and an approach based on a-priori mapping of phase diagram is often not enough. This work is aimed at demonstrating an on-the-fly surrogate modeling framework that uses active learning to reduce the number of full equilibrium calculations that must be performed. By combining with efficient coupling approaches, the surrogate framework helps in reducing the computational cost of thermodynamic equilibrium informed multiphysics simulations of nuclear materials. The performance is benchmarked against full coupling with the thermochemistry library Thermochimica [3]. This work uses a machine learning based approach for constructing surrogate models to predict the stable phases in a multicomponent system. The surrogates were constructed using neural networks and Gaussian process classification. In this work, we compare the relative performance of the two methods. We also demonstrate the use of caching previous calculations by interpolating the values from nearest neighbors. References [1] Lindsay, A.D., et al. "2.0 – MOOSE: Enabling massively parallel multiphysics simulation", SoftwareX, 20 (2022): 101202. [2] Roos, W.A. and Zietsman J.H. "Accelerating complex chemical equilibrium calculations – A Review", Calphad, 77 (2022): 102380. [3] Piro, M.H.A., et al. "The thermochemistry library Thermochimica", Computational Materials Science, 67 (2013): 266-272.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Efficient learning of power grid voltage control strategies via model-based deep reinforcement learning

Here this article proposes a model-based deep reinforcement learning (DRL) method to design emergency control strategies for short-term voltage stability problems in power systems. Recent advances show promising results for model-free DRL-based methods in power systems control problems. But in power systems applications, these model-free methods have certain issues related to training time (clock time) and sample efficiency; both are critical for making state-of-the-art DRL algorithms practically applicable. DRL-agent learns an optimal policy via a trial-and-error method while interacting with the real-world environment. It is also desirable to minimize the direct interaction of the DRL agent with the real-world power grid due to its safety-critical nature. Additionally, the state-of-the-art DRL-based policies are mostly trained using a physics-based grid simulator where dynamic simulation is computationally intensive, lowering the training efficiency. We propose a novel model-based DRL framework where a deep neural network (DNN)-based dynamic surrogate model (SM), instead of a real-world power grid or physics-based simulation, is utilized within the policy learning framework, making the process faster and more sample efficient. However, having stable training in model-based DRL is challenging because of the complex system dynamics of large-scale power systems. We addressed these issues by incorporating imitation learning to have a warm start in policy learning, reward-shaping, and multi-step loss in surrogate model training. Finally, we achieved 97.5% reduction in samples and 87.7% reduction in training time for an application to the IEEE 300-bus test system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Machine learning for the identification of phase transitions in interacting agent-based systems: A Desai-Zwanzig example

Deriving closed-form analytical expressions for reduced-order models, and judiciously choosing the closures leading to them, has long been the strategy of choice for studying phase- and noise-induced transitions for agent-based models (ABMs). In this paper, we propose a data-driven framework that pinpoints phase transitions for an ABM—the Desai-Zwanzig model—in its mean-field limit, using a smaller number of variables than traditional closed-form models. To this end, we use the manifold learning algorithm Diffusion Maps to identify a parsimonious set of data-driven latent variables, and we show that they are in one-to-one correspondence with the expected theoretical order parameter of the ABM. We then utilize a deep learning framework to obtain a conformal reparametrization of the data-driven coordinates that facilitates, in our example, the identification of a single parameter-dependent ordinary differential equation (ODE) in these coordinates. Additionally, we identify this ODE through a residual neural network inspired by a numerical integration scheme (forward Euler). We then use the identified ODE—enabled through an odd symmetry transformation—to construct the bifurcation diagram exhibiting the phase transition.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SPUS-Small-PDE-U-net-Solver

Small PDE U-Net Solver (SPUS) is a compact and efficient foundation model (FM) designed as a unified neural operator for solving a wide range of partial differentialequations (PDEs). SPUS leverages a lightweight residual U-Net-based architecture as a foundation model architecture. To enable effective learning in this minimalist framework, SPUS utilizes a simple yet powerful auto-regressive pretraining strategy which closely replicates the behavior of numerical solvers to learn the underlying physics. SPUS is designed to be pretrained on a diverse set of fluid dynamics PDEs from public benchmark datasets.

Siddik, Abu↗

Failure Analysis–Informed Risk Assessment Framework for Geological Carbon Storage Using Numerical Simulation and Machine Learning

Geological carbon storage (GCS) is recognized as a critical technology for achieving large-scale reductions in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. Ensuring long-term containment and safety requires robust risk assessment frameworks that account for geological uncertainty and identify potential failure scenarios. Among various indicators, the area of review (AoR) serves as a key metric for evaluating storage performance, regulatory compliance, and monitoring design, as it delineates the spatial extent impacted by pressure buildup and plume migration. However, conventional AoR-based risk assessments typically perturb parameters within narrow uncertainty bounds, potentially overlooking rare but high-impact events arising from extreme geological conditions. In this study, we present a failure analysis–informed risk assessment framework for large-scale GCS projects to improve site prescreening and monitoring design. A suite of 300 numerical simulations was generated using stochastic geological models that vary five key parameters: net-to-gross ratio, anisotropy azimuth, porosity multiplier, permeability multiplier, and vertical-to-horizontal permeability ratio. Among these, 200 realizations represent normal geological uncertainty, while 100 additional cases explore extreme yet plausible conditions for failure-case analysis. The AoR was simulated and computed from pressure and CO 2 saturation fields, where the baseline AoR boundary, representing the extent predicted under typical geological uncertainty, was defined as the union of 200 normal-range simulations, and failure was identified when extreme-range cases exceeded this baseline. Results show that incorporating broader parameter uncertainty produces significantly larger AoR extents, underscoring the potential underestimation of risk under conventional uncertainty ranges. Furthermore, spatial probability maps derived from failure-induced AoR exceedance identify regions requiring enhanced monitoring attention. Various machine learning (ML)–based classifiers were developed to predict failure occurrence from geological parameters, with the random forest model achieving the highest performance (F1-score of 0.986). Consistent findings from correlation coefficient, feature importance, and Sobol sensitivity analyses reveal that low net-to-gross ratios and permeability multipliers are the dominant risk drivers, reflecting reduced reservoir connectivity and limited pressure dissipation. Altogether, these results provide a novel framework for risk-informed site prescreening and monitoring design that explicitly considers rare but high-impact geological scenarios in GCS projects.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Explainable multi-fidelity Bayesian neural network for distribution system state estimation

Distribution System State Estimation (DSSE) is frequently constrained by limited real-time measurements, the uncertainties introduced by distributed energy resources, and the presence of bad data. To address them, this paper proposes an enhanced Multi-Fidelity Bayesian Neural Network (MFBNN) DSSE approach. A low-fidelity layer based on a Deep Neural Network (DNN) is first pre-trained on pseudo-measurement data to learn fundamental state features. Subsequently, a high-fidelity Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) layer leverages limited but high-quality real-time measurements to refine these features, thereby achieving accurate DSSE. Additionally, the deep SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) is developed to quantify the influence of measurement data on DSSE through dual perspectives of global feature importance and local nodal contributions, establishing a hierarchical explainability framework for machine learning-based DSSE. Comparative studies conducted on the IEEE 13-bus system and a real-world 2135-node system from Dominion Energy demonstrate that the proposed method excels in estimation accuracy, even under situations of high noise levels, bad data, and missing data. Further comparisons with Weighted Least Squares (WLS) and other machine learning-based DSSE approaches verify that the proposed framework offers higher accuracy, improved interpretability, and enhanced robustness.

Bad data↗

Bayesian sequential optimal experimental design for nonlinear models using policy gradient reinforcement learning

We present a mathematical framework and computational methods for optimally designing a finite sequence of experiments. This sequential optimal experimental design (sOED) problem is formulated as a finite-horizon partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) under a Bayesian setting and with information-theoretic utilities. The formulation is general and may accommodate continuous random variables, non-Gaussian posteriors, and nonlinear forward models. The sOED design policy incorporates elements of feedback and lookahead simultaneously, and we show it to generalize the commonly-used batch and greedy design strategies. We solve for the sOED policy using the policy gradient (PG) method from reinforcement learning, and provide a derivation for the PG expression in the sOED context. Adopting an actor-critic approach, the policy and value functions are parameterized using deep neural networks and improved via PG estimates produced from simulated episodes of designs and observations. The new PG-sOED algorithm is first validated on a linear-Gaussian benchmark, and then compared against other design baselines on a sensor movement problem for contaminant source inversion in a convection-diffusion field. As a result, we provide explanation for the policy behaviors using knowledge of the underlying physical process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Time-series forecasting using manifold learning, radial basis function interpolation, and geometric harmonics

We address a three-tier numerical framework based on nonlinear manifold learning for the forecasting of high-dimensional time series, relaxing the “curse of dimensionality” related to the training phase of surrogate/machine learning models. At the first step, we embed the high-dimensional time series into a reduced low-dimensional space using nonlinear manifold learning (local linear embedding and parsimonious diffusion maps). Then, we construct reduced-order surrogate models on the manifold (here, for our illustrations, we used multivariate autoregressive and Gaussian process regression models) to forecast the embedded dynamics. Finally, we solve the pre-image problem, thus lifting the embedded time series back to the original high-dimensional space using radial basis function interpolation and geometric harmonics. The proposed numerical data-driven scheme can also be applied as a reduced-order model procedure for the numerical solution/propagation of the (transient) dynamics of partial differential equations (PDEs). In conclusion, we assess the performance of the proposed scheme via three different families of problems: (a) the forecasting of synthetic time series generated by three simplistic linear and weakly nonlinear stochastic models resembling electroencephalography signals, (b) the prediction/propagation of the solution profiles of a linear parabolic PDE and the Brusselator model (a set of two nonlinear parabolic PDEs), and (c) the forecasting of a real-world data set containing daily time series of ten key foreign exchange rates spanning the time period 3 September 2001–29 October 2020.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning

The Geothermal Operational Optimization with Machine Learning (GOOML) project has developed a generic and extensible component-based system modeling framework to study complex geothermal fields using a data-driven approach. Through building a digital twin of a geothermal steam field with the GOOML modeling framework, operators can analyze historical and forecasted power production, explore possible steam field configurations, and optimize real world operations, all in a cost-effective digital environment. The GOOML modeling software is based on a historical data-assimilation framework that uses first-principal thermodynamics to model steam field components using historical data, and a forecast framework that uses machine-learning-driven models of steam field components to predict future operations. This modeling framework creates countless new opportunities for digital exploration of steam field design and operations. To date, digital twins have been developed for several steam fields in New Zealand and the United States. These digital twins have been validated by comparing hindcast predictions against historical production data. Field design and operations have been explored using genetic optimization and reinforcement learning. Initial results show compelling and often surprising opportunities for improved design and operation of fields with 2 to 5 percent improvements in annual energy production. GOOML is driving a step-change in geothermal operations by applying state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, comprehensive data analytics, and a first-of-its-kind intelligent geothermal systems model.

40 EE - Geothermal Technologies Office (EE-4G)↗

Generative learning of densities on manifolds

A generative modeling framework is proposed that combines diffusion models and manifold learning to efficiently sample data densities on manifolds. The approach utilizes Diffusion Maps to uncover possible low-dimensional underlying (latent) spaces in the high-dimensional data (ambient) space. Two approaches for sampling from the latent data density are described. The first is a score-based diffusion model, which is trained to map a standard normal distribution to the latent data distribution using a neural network. The second one involves solving an Itô stochastic differential equation in the latent space. Additional realizations of the data are generated by lifting the samples back to the ambient space using Double Diffusion Maps , a recently introduced technique typically employed in studying dynamical system reduction; here the focus lies in sampling densities rather than system dynamics. The proposed approaches enable sampling high dimensional data densities restricted to low-dimensional, a priori unknown manifolds. The efficacy of the proposed framework is demonstrated through a benchmark problem and a material with multiscale structure.

Double diffusion maps↗

Aging matrix visualizes complexity of battery aging across hundreds of cycling protocols

To reliably deploy lithium-ion batteries, a fundamental understanding of cycling aging behavior is critical. Battery aging consists of complex and highly coupled phenomena, making it challenging to develop a holistic interpretation. In this work, we generate a diverse battery cycling dataset with a broad range of degradation trajectories, consisting of 359 high energy density commercial Li(Ni,Co,Al)O 2 /graphite + SiO x cylindrical 21 700 cells cycled across 207 unique cycling protocols. We consolidate aging via 16 mechanistic state-of-health (SOH) metrics, including cell-level performance metrics, electrode-specific capacities/state-of-charges (SOCs), and aging trajectory metrics. We develop a framework using interpretable machine learning and explainable features to generate an aging matrix that visually deconvolutes the complex battery degradation behavior. This generalizable data-driven mechanistic framework simplifies the complex interplay between cycling conditions, degradation modes, and SOH, acting as a hypothesis-generation tool to aid battery users in identifying key degradation regimes for further study and experimentation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Atomate2: modular workflows for materials science

High-throughput density functional theory (DFT) calculations have become a vital element of computational materials science, enabling materials screening, property database generation, and training of “universal” machine learning models. While several software frameworks have emerged to support these computational efforts, new developments such as machine learned force fields have increased demands for more flexible and programmable workflow solutions. This manuscript introduces atomate2, a comprehensive evolution of our original atomate framework, designed to address existing limitations in computational materials research infrastructure. Key features include the support for multiple electronic structure packages and interoperability between them, along with generalizable workflows that can be written in an abstract form irrespective of the DFT package or machine learning force field used within them. Our hope is that atomate2's improved usability and extensibility can reduce technical barriers for high-throughput research workflows and facilitate the rapid adoption of emerging methods in computational material science.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Time Sequence Machine Learning-Based Data Intrusion Detection for Smart Voltage Source Converter-Enabled Power Grid

Smart inverters of distributed energy resources can enable cloud computing, condition monitoring, result visualization, remote control, and peer-to-peer energy trading in advanced power systems. However, the advent of data injection attacks in the communication architecture can alter measurement characteristics of power grids and have devastating consequences. In this article, we propose a time sequence machine learning-based anomaly detection methodology for detecting cyber intrusion into control signal setpoints and dc voltage signal measurement bias of the voltage source converter (VSC) in wind generators. We first investigated the effects of four types of denial of service, tampering signal, and stealthy-type data intrusion attacks on smart VSCs and overall wind farms. We then proposed a novel time sequence machine learning-based intrusion detection framework that can be implemented to detect different cyberattacks in the VSCs. The performance of the proposed framework has been compared with that of autoencoder and clustering-based intrusion detection framework. The proposed framework was validated by using the IEEE 39 bus power system in the presence of four wind farms in different locations. Using several metrics for intrusion detection performance, we validated the effectiveness of the proposed framework.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Smart-PGSim: Using Neural Network to Accelerate AC-OPF Power Grid Simulation

In this work we address the problem of accelerating complex power-grid simulation through machine learning ( ML). Specifically, we develop a framework, Smart-PGSim,which generates multitask-learning (MTL) neural network (NN)models to predict the initial values of variables critical to the problem convergence. MTL models allow information sharing when predicting multiple dependent variables while including customized layers to predict individual variables. We show that,to achieve the required accuracy, it is paramount to embed domain-specific constraints derived from the specific power-grid components in the MTL model. Smart-PGSim then employs the predicted initial values as a high-quality initial condition for the power-grid numerical solver (warm start), resulting in both higher performance compared to state-of-the-art solutions while maintaining the required accuracy. Smart-PGSim brings 2.60×speedup on average (up to 3.28×) computed over 10,000 problems, without losing solution optimality.

machine learning, neural networks↗

GeoThermalCloud for EGS – An Open-source, User-friendly, Scalable AI Workflow for Modeling Enhanced Geothermal Systems

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) offer a vast potential to expand the use of geothermal energy. Heat is extracted from this engineered system by injecting relatively cold water into subsurface fractures, which are in contact with hot dry rock, and brought back to surface through production wells. Creating EGS requires improving the natural permeability of hot crystalline rocks. In this short conference paper, we present a reproducible workflow for modeling EGS. Our workflow called the GeoThermalCloud (GTC) for EGS, leverages recent advances in machine learning, deep learning, and high-performance computing. This GTC framework is currently being made open-source, user-friendly, and reproducible through python scripts as well as Google Colab/Jupyter Notebooks. This GTC for EGS modeling scripts are made available at https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS and will constantly be updated to cater for geothermal community. Current GTC framework provides scripts to train deep learning (DL) models for techno-economics and data worth analysis. The Geothermal Design Tool (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast and simplified multi-physics solver, is used to develop a database for training DL models. This short paper provides details on the scripts to curate, process, and train DL models. The scripts can easily be modified to train on databases generated by other popular open-source simulators such as PFLOTRAN, STOMP, TOUGH, and GEOSX or commercial software such as ResFrac and COMSOL.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Data-driven building energy modeling with feature selection and active learning for data predictive control

Three gaps impede the development of cost-effective and accurate data-driven building energy modeling/models (DBEM) for energy forecasting and predictive control strategies. Gap 1: data bias is common in building operation data, but this topic is hardly studied in DBEM; Gap 2: high data dimensionality is common in DBEM, but a systematic and scalable methodology is lacking to solve the problem; Gap 3: the interactions between data bias and high dimensionality have not been systematically studied for DBEM and predictive control in buildings. In this work, to address the three gaps mentioned above, we develop a framework that integrates active learning and feature selection for DBEM used for whole building data predictive control (or DPC, which is a branch of model predictive control). The framework provides a systematic methodology and automatic workflow that starts with raw data from building automation systems to the establishment of data-driven energy models for DPC controllers. The developed strategies and framework are evaluated in a virtual testbed based on EnergyPlus and BCVTB. Improved performance and reduced computational complexity are observed from the DBEM built with the developed framework, as well as the DPC controller based on that DBEM, indicating the effectiveness of the developed framework.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Integrating Maximum Entropy Production Theory and Machine Learning to Improve Global Evapotranspiration Modeling

Accurate estimation of terrestrial evapotranspiration (ET) is vital for understanding global water and energy cycles. However, current global ET estimations are not well constrained. This study introduces an integrated framework combining the Maximum Entropy Production (MEP) theory with Random Forest (RF) model to improve global ET estimation. Specifically, in contrast to direct ET estimation by the RF model, the integrated framework (MEP‐RF) trains to predict error of MEP‐simulated ET. MEP‐RF outperforms RF in spatiotemporal extrapolation. Attribution analysis with in situ observations reveals that the inputs of MEP are the most critical variables for the ET process, including net radiation, vegetated area, soil moisture, and surface temperature. We further drive MEP‐RF with global reanalysis and satellite data sets of these four inputs, yielding a global mean terrestrial ET of 548 mm/year, with 77% attributed to transpiration. The global ET increased at a rate of 0.85 mm/year per year during 2003–2021, primarily due to vegetation greening rather than rising temperature, while decreasing soil moisture led to decreasing regional ET. The integrated framework provides a novel approach for the estimation of global ET without the need for hard‐to‐obtain and thus uncertain inputs, such as wind speed, surface roughness, aerodynamic and canopy stomatal resistance. Therefore, MEP‐RF offers an independent method on existing global ET products. It represents a promising physically based approach that can be incorporated into Earth System Models to enhance water and energy cycle simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A generative artificial intelligence framework for long-time plasma turbulence simulations

Generative deep learning techniques are employed in a novel framework for the construction of surrogate models capturing the spatiotemporal dynamics of 2D plasma turbulence. The proposed Generative Artificial Intelligence Turbulence (GAIT) framework enables the acceleration of turbulence simulations for long-time transport studies. GAIT leverages a convolutional variational auto-encoder and a recurrent neural network to generate new turbulence data from existing simulations, extending the time horizon of transport studies with minimal computational cost. The application of the GAIT framework to plasma turbulence using the Hasegawa–Wakatani (HW) model is presented, evaluating its performance via various analyses. Very good agreement is found between the GAIT and the HW models in the spatiotemporal Fourier and Proper Orthogonal Decomposition spectra, the flow topology characterized by the Okubo–Weiss parameter, and the time autocorrelation function of turbulent fluctuations. Excellent agreement has also been obtained in the probability distribution function of particle displacements and the effective turbulent diffusivity. In-depth analyses of the latent space of turbulent states, choice of hyperparameters and alternative deep learning models for the time prediction are presented. Our results highlight the potential of Artificial Intelligence-based surrogate models to overcome the computational challenges in turbulence simulation, which can be extended to other situations such as geophysical fluid dynamics.

Artificial intelligence↗