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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Thermo-Poro-Mechanical Modeling of RTV Intumescence

Room temperature vulcanizing (RTV) silicone is a high-temperature adhesive used as a gap-filler between heatshield tiles in numerous entry missions. Its propensity to intumesce, or swell upon exposure to heat, is a well-known effect that needs to be carefully quantified during design. At tile interfaces of charring ablators, intumescence, combined with differential recession, could cause the gap filler to protrude past the ablator outer mold line, forming a “fence”. Fencing can in turn cause transition to turbulence of the flow wetting the heat shield, leading to augmented surface heating. Recent experiments conducted at the Plasmatron X facility, the high enthalpy wind tunnel of the Center for Hypersonics and Entry Systems Studies, have shown prominent fencing of RTV gap fillers in PICA, under both nitrogen and air plasmas. Similar observations are well known in the arcjet literature. Further experiments under controlled environment, performed using in situ X-ray micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) at the Advanced Light Source (ALS), have shown heating rate-dependent swelling and shrinkage of RTV during pyrolysis. To simulate RTV intumescence, a novel model was introduced in the Porous Materials Analysis Toolbox based on OpenFOAM, PATO, to account for pore-pressure buildup within both closed- and open-pores. The governing equation for the thermo-poro-mechanical response were developed, assuming linear elasticity for the charring silicone. A new multi-pyrolysis model that tracks non-monotonic advancement of material properties with pyrolysis was proposed. This model addresses the limitations of state-of-the-art ablator models to capture the different stages of thermal degradation and coupled thermomechanics. Swelling of RTV was simulated using the new thermo-poro-mechanical model and compared against in situ micro-CT data. Results showed good agreement in intumescence height and temperature profiles at all heating rates, indicating that the key factor contributing to RTV swelling is the internal pressure build-up within closed- and open-pores. As RTV is cured into a soft (rubbery) compound with low-porosity and permeability, initial temperature increase and pyrolysis gas production cause a significant increase of internal pressure, causing a pronounced volume growth. As thermal degradation progresses, rigidization of the silicone occurs due to char hardening which counteract volume shrinkage after gas pressure relief. Overall, our model shows that accounting for changes in properties such porosity, permeability and key thermomechanical coefficients is crucial for capturing the RTV volume change during ablation and enable a predictive capability for heatshield tile interface response. A plan for future calibration of thermomechanical properties evolution during degradation is discussed, as a key next step to close the new model.

RTV↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Thermo-Poro-Mechanical Modeling of RTV Intumescence

silicone intumescence↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling the impact of high thermal conductivity paper on the performance and life of power transformers

Degradation of insulation paper is a key contributor to the failure of power transformers. Insulation degradation accelerates at elevated temperatures, which highlights the potential for better thermal management to prolong life. While several studies have analyzed the benefits of high thermal conductivity oil for reducing temperatures inside a transformer, this study is an initial assessment of the benefits of high thermal conductivity paper on transformer life. Blending particulates with cellulosic fibers offers a pathway for high thermal conductivity paper (with good dielectric properties), which can reduce internal temperatures. Presently, life extensions that can be achieved by the use of such thermally conducting papers were estimated, with the thermal conductivity of the paper being the key parameter under study. The analytical-numerical thermal model used in this study was validated against experimental measurements in a distribution transformer, adding confidence to the utility of the model. This model was then used to provide estimates of hot-spot temperature reduction resulting from the use of papers with higher thermal conductivity than baseline. Transformer life was predicted conventionally by tracking the degree of polymerization of paper over time, based on an Arrhenius model. Results indicate that increasing the thermal conductivity of paper from 0.2 W/mK (baseline) to 1W/mK reduces the hot spot temperature by 10°C. While degradation significantly depends on the moisture and oxygen content, the model shows that such a temperature reduction can increase life for all conditions, by as much as a factor of three.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1991

Modeled performance of monolithic, 3-terminal InP/Ga(0.47)In(0.53)As concentrator solar cells as a function of temperature and concentration ratio

Using measured device parameters from a monolithic three-terminal In/GaInAs (0.75 eV) tandem concentrator solar cell, a numerical model is constructed that calculates efficiency as a function of temperature and concentration ratio. The device measurements indicate that the series resistance in the InP top cell severely limits the maximum efficiency at high concentration ratios. Results from the model in which a single-junction InP concentrator solar cell that has a lower resistance by a factor of six was substituted for the top cell show that peak 20 C air-mass-zero (AM0) efficiencies should approach 30 percent at concentration ratios greater than 100. At 80 C, this tandem cell should exceed 24 percent AM0 efficiency.

Osterwald, C. R.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Interactions of the SAP Domain of Human Ku70 with DNA Substrate: A Molecular Dynamics Study

NASA is developing a systems biology approach to improve the assessment of health risks associated with space radiation. The primary toxic and mutagenic lesion following radiation exposure is the DNA double strand break (DSB), thus a model incorporating proteins and pathways important in response and repair of this lesion is critical. One key protein heterodimer for systems models of radiation effects is the Ku70/80 complex. The Ku70/80 complex is important in the initial binding of DSB ends following DNA damage, and is a component of nonhomologous end joining repair, the primary pathway for DSB repair in mammalian cells. The SAP domain of Ku70 (residues 556-609), contains an a helix-extended strand-helix motif and similar motifs have been found in other nucleic acid-binding proteins critical for DNA repair. However, the exact mechanism of damage recognition and substrate specificity for the Ku heterodimer remains unclear in part due to the absence of a high-resolution structure of the SAP/DNA complex. We performed a series of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations on a system with the SAP domain of Ku70 and a 10 base pairs DNA duplex. Large-scale conformational changes were observed and some putative binding modes were suggested based on energetic analysis. These modes are consistent with previous experimental investigations. In addition, the results indicate that cooperation of SAP with other domains of Ku70/80 is necessary to explain the high affinity of binding as observed in experiments.

Hu, Shaowen↗

NASA NTRS2006

Embedded Sensors for Measuring Surface Regression

The development and evaluation of new hybrid and solid rocket motors requires accurate characterization of the propellant surface regression as a function of key operational parameters. These characteristics establish the propellant flow rate and are prime design drivers affecting the propulsion system geometry, size, and overall performance. There is a similar need for the development of advanced ablative materials, and the use of conventional ablatives exposed to new operational environments. The Miniature Surface Regression Sensor (MSRS) was developed to serve these applications. It is designed to be cast or embedded in the material of interest and regresses along with it. During this process, the resistance of the sensor is related to its instantaneous length, allowing the real-time thickness of the host material to be established. The time derivative of this data reveals the instantaneous surface regression rate. The MSRS could also be adapted to perform similar measurements for a variety of other host materials when it is desired to monitor thicknesses and/or regression rate for purposes of safety, operational control, or research. For example, the sensor could be used to monitor the thicknesses of brake linings or racecar tires and indicate when they need to be replaced. At the time of this reporting, over 200 of these sensors have been installed into a variety of host materials. An MSRS can be made in either of two configurations, denoted ladder and continuous (see Figure 1). A ladder MSRS includes two highly electrically conductive legs, across which narrow strips of electrically resistive material are placed at small increments of length. These strips resemble the rungs of a ladder and are electrically equivalent to many tiny resistors connected in parallel. A substrate material provides structural support for the legs and rungs. The instantaneous sensor resistance is read by an external signal conditioner via wires attached to the conductive legs on the non-eroding end of the sensor. The sensor signal can be transmitted from inside a high-pressure chamber to the ambient environment, using commercially available feedthrough connectors. Miniaturized internal recorders or wireless data transmission could also potentially be employed to eliminate the need for producing penetrations in the chamber case. The rungs are designed so that as each successive rung is eroded away, the resistance changes by an amount that yields a readily measurable signal larger than the background noise. (In addition, signal-conditioning techniques are used in processing the resistance readings to mitigate the effect of noise.) Hence, each discrete change of resistance serves to indicate the arrival of the regressing host material front at the known depth of the affected resistor rung. The average rate of regression between two adjacent resistors can be calculated simply as the distance between the resistors divided by the time interval between their resistance jumps. Advanced data reduction techniques have also been developed to establish the instantaneous surface position and regression rate when the regressing front is between rungs.

Gramer, Daniel J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Disruption of acyl-acyl carrier protein (acyl-ACP) synthetase in cyanobacteria impairs lipid remodeling as revealed by acyl-ACP measurements

Free fatty acid (FFA) production in bacteria is a key target for metabolic engineering. The knockout of the acyl-ACP synthetase (AAS) prevents reincorporation of FFA into the fatty acid biosynthetic cycle and is widely used to enhance their secretion. However, the role of AAS in membrane lipid remodeling under environmental stress, such as altered temperature, remains poorly understood. In cyanobacteria, temperature shifts are known to affect fatty acid desaturation and membrane fluidity, yet it is unclear whether AAS contributes to these adaptive responses through re-esterification of membrane-released acyl chains. We elucidated unique aspects of fatty acid metabolism in response to temperature changes in biotechnologically relevant microbes with the development of an efficient method for quantifying acyl-ACP intermediates using anion exchange chromatography (AEX). In Escherichia coli, which performs desaturation during fatty acid biosynthesis, we detected saturated and unsaturated acyl-ACPs that confirm biosynthetic pathway operation. In the cyanobacteria, Picosynechococcus sp. PCC 7002 and the Δaas strain, changes between two temperatures were interpreted with support from proteomic and lipidomic analyses and indicated that the AAS is tied to membrane lipid remodeling. Further, polyunsaturated acyl-ACPs were detected in the Δaas strain, which was unexpected because fatty acid synthesis does not produce polyunsaturates in cyanobacteria, suggesting the presence of alternative acyl-activating enzymes or unknown acyl-ACP desaturases. This study highlights the possible link between acyl chain recycling and lipid remodeling in cyanobacteria and demonstrates the utility of AEX-based acyl-ACP profiling in dissecting fatty acid metabolism.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Identification of Ebola Virus Inhibitors Targeting GP2 Using Principles of Molecular Mimicry

A key step in the Ebola virus (EBOV) replication cycle involves conformational changes in viral glycoprotein 2 (GP2) which facilitate host-viral membrane fusion and subsequent release of the viral genome. Ebola GP2 plays a critical role in virus entry and has similarities in mechanism and structure to the HIV gp41 protein for which inhibitors have been successfully developed. In this work, a putative binding pocket for the C-terminal heptad repeat in the N-terminal heptad repeat trimer was targeted for identification of small molecules that arrest EBOV-host membrane fusion. Two computational structure-based virtual screens of ~1.7 M compounds were performed (DOCK program) against a GP2 five-helix bundle, resulting in 165 commercially available compounds purchased for experimental testing. Based on assessment of inhibitory activity, cytotoxicity, and target specificity, four promising candidates emerged with 50% inhibitory concentration values in the 3 to 26 μM range. Molecular dynamics simulations of the two most potent candidates in their DOCK-predicted binding poses indicate that the majority of favorable interactions involve seven highly conserved residues that can be used to guide further inhibitor development and refinement targeting EBOV. The most recent Ebola virus disease outbreak, from 2014 to 2016, resulted in approximately 28,000 individuals becoming infected, which led to over 12,000 causalities worldwide. The particularly high pathogenicity of the virus makes paramount the identification and development of promising lead compounds to serve as inhibitors of Ebola infection. To limit viral load, the virus-host membrane fusion event can be targeted through the inhibition of the class I fusion glycoprotein of. In the current work, several promising small-molecule inhibitors that target the glycoprotein GP2 were identified through systematic application of structure-based computational and experimental drug design procedures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Small to Full Height Scale Comparisons of Cesium Ion Exchange Performance with Crystalline Silicotitanate

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Hanford Site houses 56 million gallons of high-level radioactive waste generated from plutonium production from 1944 to 1988. The supernatant waste, currently stored in underground tanks, is intended to be vitrified following filtration and 137 Cs removal at the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Low-Activity Waste (LAW) Vitrification Facility. The WTP Pretreatment Facility will not be operational for several years. The Tank Side Cesium Removal (TSCR) system is a technology demonstration that will remove cesium from tank waste supernate to support directly feeding LAW to the vitrification facility. The 137 Cs removal is important to meet the WTP LAW contract specification and ultimately for creating a contact-handled waste form. The waste acceptance criteria (WAC) limit for the WTP LAW Facility is <3.18E-5 Ci 137 Cs per mole Na. The TSCR system is skid mounted and employs two key technologies: dead end filtration for solids removal and ion exchange (IX) for cesium removal. Filtration is necessary to protect the functionality of the IX columns. The IX process utilizes sodium form crystalline silicotitanate (CST) IX media produced by UOP Honeywell, LLC (Des Plaines, IL) under the product name IONSIV R9140-B, 18 x 50 mesh, in a lead-lag-polish column configuration. Each column contains a CST bed height of 92 inches and a volume of approximately 157 gallons of CST IX media. The full-scale TSCR operation will run at a residence time of 1.9 bed volumes (BV)/h, which results in a superficial velocity of 7.3 cm/min and a flowrate of ~5 gal/min. Column testing at small (2.5% of the full bed height), medium (12% of the full bed height), and full-height scales has been previously conducted to evaluate process variables and scale up performance of Cs exchange onto the CST. Cesium load performances from various sieve cuts at the small scale indicated that a 30-mesh sieve cut be tested to determine if it better reflects the 12% and full-height column performances at the small scale. Two process flowrates were tested in the small-column configuration with <30-mesh CST and simulant solutions. These tests were compared to full-height column tests at the same residence times to assess CST particle size effect on column scaling. Table S.1 summarizes the observed column performance determined for the two flowrates juxtaposed to the previous work with 5.6 M Na simulant at higher scales (used as benchmarks). The WAC breakthroughs between the small and full-height tests at 1.3 BV/h differed by ~59 BVs. The WAC breakthroughs for small, medium, and full-height tests at 1.8 BV/h were consistent at 240 BVs. The 50% Cs breakthroughs were nominally equivalent for all column tests. The common transition zones and onsets of Cs breakthrough at the 1.8 BV/h tests indicated that the Cs mass transfers were equivalent and thus the <30-mesh CST Cs load performance at the small scale successfully modeled that of the full-height system. It is recommended that the <30-mesh CST be used in subsequent 10-mL CST bed tests.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS2012

Simulation of Complex Cracking in Plain Weave C/SiC Composite under Biaxial Loading

Finite element analysis is performed on a mesh, based on computed geometry of a plain weave C/SiC composite with assumed internal stacking, to reveal the pattern of internal damage due to biaxial normal cyclic loading. The simulation encompasses intertow matrix cracking, matrix cracking inside the tows, and separation at the tow-intertow matrix and tow-tow interfaces. All these dissipative behaviors are represented by traction-separation cohesive laws. Not aimed at quantitatively predicting the overall stress-strain relation, the simulation, however, does not take the actual process of fiber debonding into account. The fiber tows are represented by a simple rule-of-mixture model where the reinforcing phase is a hypothetical one-dimensional material. Numerical results indicate that for the plain weave C/SiC composite, 1) matrix-crack initiation sites are primarily determined by large intertow matrix voids and interlayer tow-tow contacts, 2) the pattern of internal damage strongly depends on the loading path and initial stress, 3) compressive loading inflicts virtually no damage evolution. KEY WORDS: ceramic matrix composite, plain weave, cohesive model, brittle failure, smeared crack model, progressive damage, meso-mechanical analysis, finite element.

Cheng, Ron-Bin↗

NASA NTRS2020

Prognostics for Systems Health Management - Model and Hybrid Based Approaches. Where are We Heading?

To facilitate and solve the prediction problem, awareness of the current state and health of the system is key, since it is necessary to perform condition-based system health predictions. To accurately predict the future state of any system, it is required to possess knowledge of its current health state and future operational conditional. In case of next generation electric aircrafts, computing remaining flying time is safety-critical, since an aircraft that runs out of power (battery charge) while in the air will eventually lose control leading to catastrophe. In order to tackle and solve the prediction problem, it is essential to have awareness of the current health state of the system, especially since it is necessary to perform condition-based predictions. To be able to predict the future state of the system, it is also required to possess knowledge of the current and future operational conditions and flight profiles for accurate estimation of end-of-discharge (EOD) for the batteries. Similar framework can be implemented to other complex systems and subsystems. Our research approach is to develop a system level health monitoring safety indicator which runs estimation and prediction algorithms to estimate remaining useful life predictions at system, subsystem swell as component levels. Given models of the current and future system behavior, a general approach of model-based prognostics is discussed as a solution to the prediction problem and further for decision making. Data driven prognostics approaches have been equally used with good results in the past, where respective approaches have their own challenges to tackle. This limits their applicability to complex real-world domains: (a) high complexity or incompleteness of physics-based models and (b) limited representativeness of the training dataset for data-driven models. With the advent of internet of things for data collection and increased use of ML algorithms, hybrid approaches are the next avenue to reduce the challenges and achieve better results. An hybrid framework for fusing information from physics-based performance models along with deep learning algorithms for prognostics of complex safety critical systems is presented. In this framework, we use physics-based performance models to infer unobservable model parameters related to the system's components health solving a calibration problem.

Prognostics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Mapping the N = 40 island of inversion: Precision mass measurements of neutron-rich Fe isotopes

Nuclear properties across the chart of nuclides are key to improving and validating our understanding of the strong interaction in nuclear physics. Here we present high-precision mass measurements of neutron-rich Fe isotopes performed at the TITAN facility. The multiple-reflection time-of-flight mass spectrometer (MR-ToF-MS), achieving a resolving power greater than 600000 for the first time, enabled the measurement of 63–70 Fe, including first-time high-precision direct measurements (δm/m ≈ 10 -7 ) of 68–70 Fe, as well as the discovery of a long-lived isomeric state in 69 Fe. These measurements are accompanied by both mean-field and ab initio calculations using the most recent realizations which enable theoretical assignment of the spin-parities of the 69 Fe ground and isomeric states. Together with mean-field calculations of quadrupole deformation parameters for the Fe isotope chain, these results benchmark a maximum of deformation in the N = 40 island of inversion in Fe and shed light on trends in level densities indicated in the newly refined mass surface.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Flow behavior of hydraulic fractured tight formations considering Pre-Darcy flow using EDFM

For tight reservoirs/formations, flow in fracture and matrix obey different flow patterns. Pre-Darcy flow always exists in low permeability subsurface porous media while Darcy flow can be applied in fracture. It is an outstanding challenge to understand the flow behavior coupling different flow mechanisms. As numerical simulation can predict field-scale performance so the development of efficient simulation method becomes a key issue to evaluate the flow behavior. In this paper, we develop an improved discrete fracture model based on the widely used embedded discrete facture model (EDFM) to simulate the transport both in homogenous and heterogeneous porous media in the presence of Pre-Darcy flow. The conservation equations are derived for fracture and matrix firstly and then discretized by fully implicit method. The transmissibility of different connection types is defined and the detailed calculation workflow is presented as well. The proposed model is verified through the comparison with the model using local grid refined (LGR) method. It is discovered that our simulation method exhibits good accuracy when analyzing the effect of Pre-Darcy flow. Some examples are shown including 1D scalar transport, 2D heterogeneous, 3D flow, complex fracture system and multiple well system problems with fully-coupled flow in fracture and matrix. The pressure distribution and well flux are demonstrated to analyze the Pre-Darcy flow characteristics. Results indicate that the new model works robustly for different flow problems which provide further insight into the Pre-Darcy flow in low permeability media.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2021

Organic Solvent Free Process to Fabricate High Performance Silicon/Graphite Composite Anode

Cycling stability is a key challenge for application of silicon (Si)-based composite anodes as the severe volume fluctuation of Si readily leads to fast capacity fading. The binder is a crucial component of the composite electrodes. Although only occupying a small amount of the total composite mass, the binder has major impact on the long-term electrochemical performance of Si-based anodes. In recent years, water-based binders including styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) and carboxymethyl cellulose (CMC) have attracted wide research interest as eco-friendly and low-cost alternatives for the conventional poly(vinylidene difluoride) (PVDF) binder in Si anodes. In this study, Si-based composite anodes are fabricated by simple solid mixing of the active materials with subsequent addition of SBR and CMC binders. This approach bypasses the use of toxic and expansive organic solvents. The factors of binder, silicon, and graphite materials have been systematically investigated. It is found that the retained capacities of the anodes are more than 440 mAh/g after 400 cycles. These results indicate that organic solvent free process is a facile strategy for producing high performance silicon/graphite composite anodes.

Fang, Chen (ORCID:0000000321011991)↗

NASA NTRS1993

Optical communications and a comparison of optical technologies for a high data rate return link from Mars

The important principles of direct- and heterodyne-detection optical free-space communications are reviewed. Signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) and bit-error-rate (BER) expressions are derived for both the direct-detection and heterodyne-detection optical receivers. For the heterodyne system, performance degradation resulting from received-signal and local oscillator-beam misalignment and laser phase noise is analyzed. Determination of interfering background power from local and extended background sources is discussed. The BER performance of direct- and heterodyne-detection optical links in the presence of Rayleigh-distributed random pointing and tracking errors is described. Finally, several optical systems employing Nd:YAG, GaAs, and CO2 laser sources are evaluated and compared to assess their feasibility in providing high-data-rate (10- to 1000-Mbps) Mars-to-Earth communications. It is shown that the root mean square (rms) pointing and tracking accuracy is a critical factor in defining the system transmitting laser-power requirements and telescope size and that, for a given rms error, there is an optimum telescope aperture size that minimizes the required power. The results of the analysis conducted indicate that, barring the achievement of extremely small rms pointing and tracking errors (less than 0.2 microrad), the two most promising types of optical systems are those that use an Nd:YAG laser (lambda = 1.064 microns) and high-order pulse position modulator (PPM) and direct detection, and those that use a CO2 laser (lambda = 10.6 microns) and phase shifting keying homodyne modulation and coherent detection. For example, for a PPM order of M = 64 and an rms pointing accuracy of 0.4 microrad, an Nd:YAG system can be used to implement a 100-Mbps Mars link with a 40-cm transmitting telescope, a 20-W laser, and a 10-m receiving photon bucket. Under the same conditions, a CO2 system would require 3-m transmitting and receiving telescopes and a 32-W laser to implement such a link. Other types of optical systems, such as a semiconductor laser systems, are impractical in the presence of large rms pointing errors because of the high power requirements of the 100-Mbps Mars link, even when optimal-size telescopes are used.

Spence, Rodney L.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Understanding the effects of oxygen defects on the redox reaction pathways in LiVPO 4 F by combining ab initio calculations with experiments

Tavorite LiVPO 4 F has great potential as a cathode material due to its high energy density, superior thermal stability and fast kinetics. It has been controversial whether the redox reaction pathway of LiVPO 4 F is symmetric or not, but the origin of such symmetric/asymmetric redox reaction pathways has not been clearly understood. By combining ab initio calculations with experiments, we found that oxygen defects on fluorine sites, O F -, can be a key factor that affects the symmetry of the redox pathway of LiVPO 4 F 1-δ O δ (δ < 1). The computational results indicate that (1) the thermodynamically metastable ‘triclinic’ polymorph of VPO 4 F 1-δ O δ , which maintains the structural symmetry of LiVPO 4 F, can be kinetically stabilized considering its marginally higher energy than the stable ‘monoclinic’ phase; and (2) the O F - defects slightly destabilize the intermediate phase ( x = 0.667) (Li 0.667 VPO 4 F versus Li 0.667 VPO 4 F 0.917 O 0.083 ), inferring that the presence of O F - defects can induce the asymmetric redox pathway of LiVPO 4 F 1-δ O δ . We also experimentally found that the concentration of O F - defects is critically affected by the synthesis process of LiVPO 4 F, and VPO 4 F with lower O F - concentration can support the possible presence of the metastable (triclinic) phase, leading to the redox pathway being prone to being symmetric. Therefore, controlling oxygen defects by a synthesis processes can affect electrochemical performance via different redox reaction pathways of LiVPO 4 F. This understanding provides further possibilities for improving the electrochemical performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing Short-Range Weather Forecasts through Temporal Variation Encoding: A Multiperiod Embedding Approach

Machine learning (ML) techniques have emerged as promising approaches to improve regional weather forecast accuracy and reliability through data-driven methods. We propose a novel ML-based weather forecasting model, the Multiperiod Embed Net (MPENet). A key distinguishing feature of MPENet is its explicit utilization of the inherent cyclic nature in weather dynamics, unlike the autoregressive strategies commonly used in other ML weather forecasting approaches. Critical cyclic structures are identified via Fourier analyses of dynamic time series. Cyclicity in the convolutional representation is achieved by transforming one-dimensional time series of meteorological variables into two-dimensional tensors based on identified periods. This approach enables the model to leverage intrinsic weather patterns, enhancing regional forecast performance. To demonstrate the effectiveness of MPENet, we conduct a comparative analysis with Nvidia’s FourCastNet. Both models are trained on High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) data from 2015 to 2022, over a 192 km × 192 km region in Tennessee. The comparisons are performed locally at two specific locations known to have different weather dynamics due to orographic effects: Crossville, on the relatively flat Cumberland Plateau with fewer topographic airflow disruptions, and Oak Ridge, in the ridge-and-valley region, where airflow is heavily influenced by surrounding valleys and mountains. Our results indicate that FourCastNet achieves strong accuracy at very short lead times, while MPENet maintains competitive skill and shows advantages in capturing temporal evolution over longer periods. Cross-correlation analyses of MPENet and FourCastNet predictions with the HRRR data suggest that encoding critical cyclicity into the network architecture leads to improvements in the forecasting skill.

Artificial intelligence↗

DOE OSTI2025

Capability Building Progression of an Insider Threat Mitigation Program at an International Research Reactor

The nuclear industry recognizes the difficulties involved in developing effective managerial and leadership skills in a highly technical and proficient workforce such as that found in nuclear facilities. Implementing an insider threat mitigation program (ITMP) within the nuclear industry is a complex and ongoing process that demands a comprehensive understanding of human behavior, an organization’s security culture, and rigorous regulatory requirements yet also accounts for facility characteristics, physical security, material flow, and activities involving nuclear material. Given the high-consequence nature of research reactor operations, even minor lapses can lead to safety, security, and reputational risks. An effective ITMP requires a defense-in-depth approach that incorporates behavioral analysis, robust vetting procedures, continuous monitoring, and cross-disciplinary coordination. It must also promote a culture of vigilance and accountability at all levels up to and including executive leadership but be flexible enough to adapt to evolving global threats and technological advances. Insider threat mitigation is not a one-time effort but rather a sustained commitment to excellence in safety and security. Establishing a culture in which personnel proactively report incidents and issues that could affect nuclear safety and security is vital to maintaining a safe and secure operational environment. This document was developed to guide senior management and research reactor organizations in creating comprehensive programs to effectively manage and mitigate insider threat behaviors and actions. It focuses on the key pillars of an effective ITMP, including the national legal framework, security culture, preventive and protective measures, cyber security, and performance evaluation. By using a systematic approach during implementation, facilities can foster environments conducive to insider threat detection and support long-term program sustainability. The document also provides strategies for improving communication across all levels of an organization, helping to eliminate barriers that hinder the development of robust ITMPs and enhance overall security culture. In today’s organizations, the concept of leveraging safety and security culture lessons to facilitate knowledge transfer is rapidly evolving to expedite insider threat management and security culture improvements. This document outlines the rationale for evaluating an ITMP based on national customs, culture, and stakeholders. The elements are all germane to reliability and trustworthiness and relate to security concerns that states may encounter. The document focuses not only on individual perceptions regarding security issues and capability building but also on team building and how to resolve concerns. The implementers of a facility’s ITMP may zero in on indicators of insider threats within their enterprise. This material will benefit organizations when it is applied using a systematic and structured approach as demonstrated throughout the document.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗