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At least 811 records · Page 45

Use of the portable decay gamma source feature in the R2Smesh code system for the accurate estimation of photon radiation dose fields around activated ITER components - Paper 111

The R2Smesh ('Rigorous 2-step') code system, developed by KIT for the determination of shut-down dose rate distribution on mesh grid, can be utilized to provide photon radiation dose field around activated components which are moved from the irradiation site in fusion reactor to another external location. R2Smesh couples MCNP transport calculations and FISPACT inventory calculations through suitable interfaces utilizing MCNP mesh tally capability. Neutron flux and the decay gamma source are provided with high resolution on the mesh grid superimposed to the real geometry to take into account the spatial variations of the flux and the decay gamma source distributions. This feature enables the decay gamma source distribution to be transferred from the irradiation site in the reactor to any other external location for the determination of photon flux and dose rate distributions. In this work, we applied the feature of the portable decay gamma source in R2Smesh code system to a dose rate analysis for a tunnel connecting the ITER tokamak complex building (TCB) and the hot cell facility building (HCFB). This paper presents the use of the portability feature of the decay gamma source in R2Smesh interface code system developed by KIT for a dose rate analysis of the ITER tunnel connecting TCB and HCFB. This application shows that the decay gamma source of the activated components could be transferred successfully from one coordinate system to another coordinate system and superimposed to the geometry of the components. This is very useful when the activated components need to be transported from the reactor to somewhere else for maintenance, testing or storage and the dose rate analysis is requested. Another portable feature, which could convert the 3D decay gamma source distribution generated by R2Smesh system to the MCNP 'SDEF' card source description and avoid the use of source sampling subroutine, is under consideration. With this feature, one decay gamma source result for the specific reactor components could be shared by different institutions who need to use the same decay gamma source for different analysis. (authors)

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Global methane emissions from coal mining to continue growing even with declining coal production

This paper presents projections of global methane emissions from coal mining under different coal extraction scenarios and with increasing mining depth through 2100. The paper proposes an updated methodology for calculating fugitive emissions from coal mining, which accounts for coal extraction method, coal rank, and mining depth and uses evidence-based emissions factors. A detailed assessment shows that coal mining-related methane emissions in 2010 were higher than previous studies show. This study also uses a novel methodology for calculating methane emissions from abandoned coal mines and represents the first estimate of future global methane emissions from those mines. The results show that emissions from abandoned mines increase faster than those from active ones. Using coal production data from six integrated assessment models, this study shows that by 2100 methane emissions from active underground mines increase by a factor of 4, while emissions from abandoned mines increase by a factor of 8. Abandoned mine methane emissions continue through the century even with aggressive mitigation actions.

coal mine methane, abandoned coal mine methane, em↗

A machine learning approach targeting parameter estimation for plant functional type coexistence modeling using ELM-FATES (v2.0)

Tropical forest dynamics play a crucial role in the global carbon, water, and energy cycles. However, realistically simulating the dynamics of competition and coexistence between different plant functional types (PFTs) in tropical forests remains a significant challenge. This study aims to improve the modeling of PFT coexistence in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), a vegetation demography model implemented in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM), ELM-FATES. Specifically, we explore (1) whether plant trait relationships established from field measurements can constrain ELM-FATES simulations and (2) whether machine learning (ML)-based surrogate models can emulate the complex ELM-FATES model and optimize parameter selections to improve PFT coexistence modeling. We conducted three ensembles of ELM-FATES experiments at a tropical forest site near Manaus, Brazil. By comparing the ensemble experiments without (Exp-CTR) and with (Exp-OBS) consideration of observed trait relationships, we found that accounting for these relationships slightly improves the simulations of water, energy, and carbon variables when compared to observations but degrades the simulation of PFT coexistence. Using ML-based surrogate models trained on Exp-CTR, we optimized the trait parameters in ELM-FATES and conducted another ensemble of experiments (Exp-ML) with these optimized parameters. The proportion of PFT coexistence experiments significantly increased from 21 % in Exp-CTR to 73 % in Exp-ML. After filtering the experiments that allow for PFT coexistence to agree with observations (within 15 % tolerance), 33 % of the Exp-ML experiments were retained, which is a significant improvement compared to the 1.4 % in Exp-CTR. Exp-ML also accurately reproduces the annual means and seasonal variations in water, energy, and carbon fluxes and the field inventory of aboveground biomass. This study represents a reproducible method that utilizes machine learning to identify parameter values that improve model fidelity against observations and PFT coexistence in vegetation demography models for diverse ecosystems. Our study also suggests the need for new mechanisms to enhance the robust simulation of coexisting plants in ELM-FATES and has significant implications for modeling the response and feedbacks of ecosystem dynamics to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aluminum Clad SNF: Technical Considerations and Challenges for Extended (>50 years) Dry Storage - 1900y

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) manages a significant inventory (>13 MTHM) of aluminum clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) using a combination of wet and dry storage at three primary sites; Hanford, Idaho National Laboratory (INL), and Savannah River Site (SRS). The majority of this ASNF is generated from U.S. and international research test reactors (RTR), examples include Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at INL and High-Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The Obama Administration suspension of the Yucca Mountain repository, issuance of the January 2013 DOE 'Strategy for the Management and Disposal of Used Nuclear Fuel and High-Level Radioactive Waste,' delays in implementing the 'regionalization' SNF approach recommended in the 1995 'Department of Energy Programmatic Spent Nuclear Fuel Management and Idaho National Engineering Laboratory Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Programs Final Environmental Impact Statement,' and limited ASNF processing capability at SRS H-Canyon means that interim storage has become the de-facto strategy for managing ASNF. The 1995 Idaho Settlement Agreement requires the DOE to transfer all SNF stored at INL to interim dry storage prior to December 31, 2023 and wet storage capacity at the SRS is nearing capacity. This situation was recognized by the DOE Spent Nuclear Fuel Working Group (SNFWG) and at its June 2016 meeting formed a ASNF sub-working group comprised subject matter experts to evaluate this area and provide a report of findings. The ASNF sub-working group met many times over several month period to review the engineering and technical basis of existing and planned DOE ASNF dry storage facilities and additional studies on the behavior of ASNF under different conditions, including during reactor service. The ASNF sub-working group focused its review on RTR SNF. Based on these reviews, the ASNF sub-working group identified five knowledge gaps and technical data needs that should be addressed to ensure viability and safety of extended, greater than 50 years, sealed or vented interim dry storage of ASNF. These five areas include; behavior/chemistry of aluminum oxyhydroxide layer in dry storage, radiolytic gas generation properties of aluminum oxyhydroxide layers, effect of episodic breathing and radiolytic generation of corrosive gases during storage, performance of ASNF in existing dry storage systems, and effects of high temperature (>1000 C) drying on chemistry and behavior of aluminum oxyhydroxide layers. The ASNF sub-working group also recommended development of an action plan to identify technical and engineering activities needed to address the knowledge gaps and technical data needs. Results of the ASNF sub-working group are documented in 2017 report 'Aluminum Clad Spent Nuclear Fuel: Technical Considerations and Challenges for Extended (>50 years) Dry Storage,' DOE-ID/RPT-1575. The INL assembled a team comprised of twenty INL and Savannah River National Laboratory SNF management and subject matter experts to develop this action plan. Over the course of 2 months the team worked to develop the action plan. The plan identified and recommended six technical and engineering tasks needed to address the previously identified knowledge gaps and technical data needs. DOE Environmental Management Office of Technology Development is providing funding to the INL to execute these tasks. This paper will present and discuss the results of the ASNF sub-working group, tasks identified in the action plan, and experimental activities underway at INL and SRNL to address the action plan. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Signature Analysis Utilizing a Dynamic Molten Salt Reactor Model for MC&A

Moving from traditional fixed fuel nuclear reactor systems to a mobile, dynamic fuel system that has dissolved special nuclear material in a molten salt is a paradigm shift in several respects. One major consideration is how to develop effective nuclear material controls and accounting for these novel reactor systems. The Molten Salt Reactor Experiment is one example of a critical molten salt system and provided a significant reference library based on the documented effort. But it was low thermal power that was not intended to reflect a commercial scale electricity production design. Therefore, to facilitate and assist vendors with domestic licensing considerations, research is underway to identify methods that could be used for domestic safeguards approaches for these novel reactor systems. This research presents the results of a signature analysis of data generated from three simulated scenarios using the molten salt demonstration reactor model defined in the Transient Simulation Framework of Reconfigurable Modules. Each scenario provides 1 hour isotope inventories over a 180 day period. The scenarios investigated provide test cases to examine if direct gamma-ray spectroscopy of the fuel can be used to identify changes comparing a base case (no reactivity control and fixed fission contribution) to an insertion of reactivity (10 pcm no change in fission composition) and a change in fission composition. The analysis demonstrates that monitoring the total count rate in a highly collimated high-resolution photon energy spectrum is sensitive to perturbations imposed into the reactor model. The total photon count rate changes ≈2% for the fission composition change and ≈4.5% for the reactivity insertion compared to the base case. However, both scenarios show an increase in the total photon count rate. The total photon count rate can be used to identify changes due to power (number of fissions) but not due to a change in the material undergoing fission. To distinguish between the two cases of increased power, the photon spectrum would require an intensive analysis technique. A photon peak count rate ratio analysis could be used to identify changes in the fissile material fission generation in the core through identification of a static peak that shows little variation to the source of fission and a highly varying peak. The photon peak strength will ultimately be determined by the isotope’s fission yield. A preliminary analysis investigating the coupling of the isotope’s fission yield and its concentration in the fuel salt derived from the modeling has been performed. A ratio analysis of the photon peak count rates of 140 La to 99 Mo demonstrated that the reactivity insertion creates a distinct difference in the ratio compared to the fission composition change scenario.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Review and Summary of Oxide Thickness Data for Aluminum-Clad Spent Nuclear Fuel

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) owns a large inventory of aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) in interim storage pending ultimate disposition, with more being generated by currently operating research reactors. Dry storage in sealed DOE Standard Canisters is being investigated as an approach for long-term interim storage and/or disposition in a repository for ASNF. A primary challenge for ASNF storage is the presence of aluminum (oxy)hydroxide layers formed on the cladding surfaces during water exposure in the reactor and in wet storage, which forms a reservoir of chemisorbed water not readily removed at low (<100°C) drying temperatures. Free, physisorbed, and chemisorbed water are all susceptible to radiolytic breakdown under irradiation and can release hydrogen gas. Identifying the likely range of (oxy)hydroxide loadings on ASNF that may be placed in dry storage will help to ensure that the impact of the (oxy)hydroxide is adequately accounted for while avoiding over conservatism and enable mitigation strategies to be implemented where needed. The current report summarizes information on (oxy)hydroxide thicknesses and characteristics from the literature and from recent measurements taken in the present research campaign. In general, corrosion studies have indicated that the corrosion and oxide buildup on aluminum are affected by numerous conditions, including pH, temperature and heat flux, coolant flowrates, irradiation (in-reactor vs. unirradiated tests), duration of water exposure, and the amount of oxide already on the surface. Some of these factors are interrelated (e.g., the local temperature, heat flux, and coolant flowrate). Observations of the impact of irradiation (in-reactor versus ex-reactor measurements) on corrosion and oxide thickness are mixed, but multiple studies indicate that there is a significant difference between in-reactor and ex-reactor corrosion kinetics, even when other operating conditions such as pH, flowrate, heat flux, etc., simulate those in a reactor.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Identification and Quantification of Beta-Emitters in Waste Packages by Segmented Gamma-Scanning - 20114

A commonly applied method for the non-destructive characterization of the radioactive inventory of waste packages (e.g. 200-l drums) is segmented gamma-scanning. The gamma-emitting inventory is identified via their characteristic lines in the measured spectra. The corresponding net peak areas allow for quantification applying appropriate models. The identification and quantification of beta-emitters present in the waste package require further evaluation. While some of them emit gamma-rays, too, which can be used for identification and quantification, pure beta-emitters contribute to the gamma-spectra only by their Bremsstrahlung-spectra. {sup 32}P, {sup 90}Sr and {sup 90}Y are typical representatives of these isotopes. A method is developed for identification and quantification of these pure beta-emitters in radioactive waste packages. Origin of the procedure is the evaluation of the measured gamma-spectrum. After the identification of all lines present in the spectrum (characteristic gamma-lines, single- and double-escape-lines, X-ray-lines, annihilation peak etc.) this information is used together with calibration data of the detection system and further a-priori information like matrix composition, cross-section data from databases etc. to simulate the spectra without the Bremsstrahlung-components by an appropriate method. This may be Monte Carlo simulations or, like in our case, a computer code taking into account mathematical descriptions of the physical effects like photo effect, (multiple) Compton scattering, backscattering etc. and the attenuation effects of the waste matrix. In any case, the resulting spectrum must simulate the real spectrum without its Bremsstrahlung-component as good as possible. Subtracting the simulated from the measured spectrum then results in the Bremsstrahlung-components caused by the beta-emitters. Prior to evaluation, a set of Bremsstrahlung-spectra is calculated and stored for different beta-emitters in different matrices using the Bethe-Heitler equation. This data set can be extended for new conditions, if necessary, and is allocated in a data base for future application. Applying a non-linear optimization using the generalized reduced gradient method for comparing the calculated with the derived Bremsstrahlung-spectra results in the identification of the beta-emitter and a factor, which is proportional to its activity. The proportionality is determined by previous calibration measurements. The application of the method is demonstrated by measurements on a 200-l mock-up drum and a real waste package. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Inventory and Waste Characterization Status Report and OWL Update.

This report represents completion of milestone deliverable M2SF-18SNO10309013 "Inventory and Waste Characterization Status Report and OWL Update that reports on FY2018 activities for the work package (WP) SF-18SNO1030901. This report provides the detailed final information for completed FY2018 work activities for WP SF-18SN01030901, and a summary of priorities for FY2019. This status report on FY2018 activities includes evaluations of waste form characteristics and waste form performance models, updates to the OWL development, and descriptions of the two planned management processes for the OWL. Updates to the OWL include an updated user's guide, additions to the OWL database content for wastes and waste forms, results of the Beta testing and changes implemented from it. There are two processes being planned in FY2018, which will be implemented in FY2019. One process covers methods for interfacing with the DOE SNF DB (DOE 2007) at INL on the numerous entries for DOE managed SNF, and the other process covers the management of updates to, and version control/archiving of, the OWL database. In FY2018, we have pursued three studies to evaluate/redefine waste form characteristics and/or performance models. First characteristic isotopic ratios for various waste forms included in postclosure performance studies are being evaluated to delineate isotope ratio tags that quantitatively identify each particular waste form. This evaluation arose due to questions regarding the relative contributions of radionuclides from disparate waste forms in GDSA results, particularly, radionuclide contributions of DOE-managed SNF vs HLW glass. In our second study we are evaluating the bases of glass waste degradation rate models to the HIP calcine waste form. The HIP calcine may likely be a ceramic matrix material, with multiple ceramic phases with/without a glass phase. The ceramic phases are likely to have different degradation performance from the glass portion. The distribution of radionuclides among those various phases may also be a factor in the radionuclide release rates. Additionally, we have an ongoing investigation of the performance behavior of TRISO particle fuels and are developing a stochastic model for the degradation of those fuels that accounts for simultaneous corrosion of the silicon carbide (SiC) layer and radionuclide diffusion through it. The detailed model of the TRISO particles themselves, will be merged with models of the degradation behavior(s) of the graphite matrix (either prismatic compacts or spherical "pebbles") containing the particles and the hexagonal graphite elements holding the compacts.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Final Scientific/Technical Report: Characterizing the Response of the Cascadia Margin Gas Hydrate Reservoir to Bottom Water Warming Along the Upper Continental Slope

The objective of this project is to understand the response of the WA margin gas hydrate system to contemporary warming of bottom water along the upper continental slope. Through pre-cruise analysis and modeling of archive and recent geophysical and oceanographic data, we (1) inventoried bottom simulating reflectors along the WA margin and defined the upper limit of gas hydrate stability, (2) refined margin-wide estimates of heat flow and geothermal gradients, (3) characterized decadal scale temporal variations of bottom water temperatures at the upper continental slope of the Washington margin, and (4) used numerical simulations to provide quantitative estimates of how the shallow boundary of methane hydrate stability responds to modern environmental change. These pre-cruise results provided the context for a systematic geophysical and geochemical survey of methane seepage along the upper continental slope from 48° to 46°N during a 10-day field program on the R/V Thompson from October 10-19, 2014. This systematic inventory of methane emissions along this climate-sensitive margin corridor and comprehensive sediment and water column sampling program provided data and samples for Phase 3 of this project that focused on determining fluid and methane sources (deep-source vs. shallow; microbial, thermogenic, gas hydrate dissociation) within the sediment, and how they relate to contemporary intermediate water warming. During the 2014 research expedition, we sampled nine seep sites between ~470 and 520 m water depth, within the zone of predicted methane hydrate retreat over the past 40 years. We imaged 22 bubble plumes with heights commonly rising to ~300 meters below sea level with one reaching near the sea surface. We collected 22 gravity cores and 20 CTD/hydrocasts from the 9 seeps and at background locations (no acoustic evidence of seepage) within the depth interval of predicted downslope retreat of the methane hydrate stability zone. Approximately 300 pore water samples were extracted from the gravity cores, and the pore water was analyzed for a comprehensive suite of solutes, gases, and stable isotope ratios. This comprehensive geochemical dataset was used to characterize the fluid and gas source(s) at each of the seep sites surveyed. The primary results of this project are: 1) Bottom simulating reflector-derived heat flow values decrease from 95 mW/m2 10 km east of the deformation front to ~60 mW/m2 60 km landward of the deformation front, with anomalously low values of ~25 mW/m2 on a prominent mid-margin terrace off central Washington. 2) The temperature of the incoming sediment/ocean crust interface at the deformation front ranges between 164-179 oC off central Washington, and the 350 oC isotherm at the top of the subducting ocean crust occurs 95 km landward of the deformation front. Differences between BSR-derived heat flow and modeled conductive heat flow suggest mean upward fluid flow rates of 0.4 cm/yr across the margin, with local regions (e.g. fault zones) exhibiting fluid flow rates up to 3.5 cm/yr. 3) A compilation of 2122 high-resolution CTD, glider, and Argo float temperature profiles spanning the upper continental slope of the Washington margin from the years 1968 to 2013 show a long-term warming trend that ranges from 0.006-0.008 oC/yr. Based on this long-term bottom water warming, we developed a 2-D thermal model to simulate the change in sediment temperature distribution over this period, along with the downslope retreat of the methane hydrate stability field. Over the 43 years of the simulation, the thermal disturbance propagated 30 m into the sediment column, causing the base of the methane hydrate stability field to shoal ~13 m and to move ~1 km downslope. 4) A preliminary analysis of seafloor observations and mid-water column acoustic data to detect bubble plumes was used to characterize the depth distribution of seeps along the Cascadia margin. These results indicate high bubble plume densities along the continental shelf at water depths <180 m and at the upper limit of methane hydrate stability along the Washington margin. 5) The majority of the seeps cored during the 2014 research expedition on the R/V Thompson contained abundant authigenic carbonate indicating that they are locations of long-lived seepage rather than emergent seep systems related to methane hydrate dissociation. Despite the evidence for enhanced methane seepage at the upper limit of methane hydrate stability along the Washington margin, we found no unequivocal evidence for active methane hydrate dissociation as a source of fluid and gas at the seeps surveyed. The pore fluid and bottom water chemistry shows that the seeps are fed by a variety of fluid and methane sources, but that methane hydrate dissociation, if occurring, is not widespread and is only a minor source (below the detection limit of our methods). Collectively, these results provide a significant advance in our understanding of the thermal structure of the Cascadia subduction zone and the fluid and methane sources feeding seeps along the upper continental slope of the Washington-sector of the Cascadia margin. Though we did not find unequivocal evidence for methane hydrate dissociation as a source of water and methane at the upper pressure-temperature limit of methane hydrate stability at present, continued warming of North Pacific Intermediate Water in the future has the potential to impact the methane hydrate reservoir in sediments at greater depths along the slope. Thus, this study provides a strong foundation and the necessary characterization of the background state of seepage at the upper limit of methane hydrate stability for future investigations of this important process.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimating Total Methane Emissions from the Denver-Julesburg Basin Using Bottom-Up Approaches

Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas with a 25 times higher 100-year warming potential than carbon dioxide and is a target for mitigation to achieve climate goals. To control and curb methane emissions, estimates are required from the sources and sectors which are typically generated using bottom-up methods. However, recent studies have shown that national and international bottom-up approaches can significantly underestimate emissions. In this study, we present three bottom-up approaches used to estimate methane emissions from all emission sectors in the Denver-Julesburg basin, CO, USA. Our data show emissions generated from all three methods are lower than historic measurements. A Tier 1/2 approach using IPCC emission factors estimated 2022 methane emissions of 358 Gg (0.8% of produced methane lost by the energy sector), while a Tier 3 EPA-based approach estimated emissions of 269 Gg (0.2%). Using emission factors informed by contemporary and region-specific measurement studies, emissions of 212 Gg (0.2%) were calculated. The largest difference in emissions estimates were a result of using the Mechanistic Air Emissions Simulator (MAES) for the production and transport of oil and gas in the DJ basin. The MAES accounts for changes to regulatory practice in the DJ basin, which include comprehensive requirements for compressors, pneumatics, equipment leaks, and fugitive emissions, which were implemented to reduce emissions starting in 2014. The measurement revealed that normalized gas loss is predicted to have been reduced by a factor of 20 when compared to 10-year-old normalization loss measurements and a factor of 10 less than a nearby oil and production area (Delaware basin, TX); however, we suggest that more measurements should be made to ensure that the long-tail emission distribution has been captured by the modeling. This study suggests that regulations implemented by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment could have reduced emissions by a factor of 20, but contemporary regional measurements should be made to ensure these bottom-up calculations are realistic.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Probability of Pinching Failure in PWR SNF after Long-Term Storage

A probabilistic assessment was performed on pinching failure of PWR SNF rod cladding under accidental SNF cask transport conditions. a set of 3,000 rod pinching scenarios was analyzed, with different geometrical, material, and loading parameters, using a Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS). The investigated accidents include train derailments leading to cask collisions or cask drops. Pinching failure was related to cladding offset strain, defined as the plastic deformation interval in radial cladding direction normalized with respect to the outer cladding diameter. Finite element (FE) models were used to compute SNF rod deformations and the offset strain demand OSD in each of the assessed pinching scenarios. The numerical models account for the contribution of the degraded fuel pellets to rod pinching stiffness. The offset strain capacity OSC was computed using regression and interpolation models based on ring compression (RCT) test results, and account for hydride-related effects on cladding ductility. The results show a low probability of pinching failure. Hydride-related cladding embrittlement affects the structural integrity of PWR SNF rods after long-term dry storage of up to 300 years. Radial hydride patterns or large amounts of circumferentially oriented hydrides reduce the cladding ductile deformation capability when pinched at low material temperatures. The probability of hydride-related pinching failure of PWR cladding is estimated after long-term dry storage to address: How do PWR SNF rod conditions like hydrogen content, vacuum drying peak cladding hoop stress σ{sub θ}, and cladding material temperature affect cladding ductility? Is hydride-related cladding embrittlement a material degradation mechanism that affects the structural integrity of PWR SNF rods under pinching loading? What are the controlling parameters for deformation demands in PWR SNF rods under pinching loading? Is the pinching load amplitude an important parameter that controls the probability of pinching failure? How do parameters like pellet-cladding gap or fuel pellet degradation affect the pinching loading capacity of PWR SNF rods? Statistical modelling of PWR SNF rod conditions in U.S. inventory: A pseudo rod database was generated based on EIA database. Analysis of train accident scenarios: a probability density function (pdf) of a pinching load distribution P{sub 9m} of a 9-m cask drop is linearly scaled to generate a more representative: distribution P{sub AS}. The new distribution considers train collision velocities, cask drops for on- and off-bridge accidents, and cask impact orientation. LHS generates 3,000 rod pinching scenarios based on nine independent geometrical, material, and loading parameters. Probabilistic FE Analysis: The LHS realizations are used to generate 3,000 FE models. The FE analysis is conducted for P{sub 9m}, and P{sub AS}. The workflow is automatized. The OSC is computed with regression and interpolation models, as a function of the hydrogen content C{sub H}, vacuum drying peak σ{sub θ}, and SNF temperature T{sub FR}: The regression data was obtained in RCTs on PWR cladding. The OSD is derived from the cladding deformations in the FE models. Cladding failure was identified via a comparison of OSC and OSD. A 300 and a 30 years-of-dry-storage duration is investigated: The dry-storage period affects the expected SNF temperature and consequently, the OSC and the OSD. The material temperature LHS population is adapted to account for a SNF temperature variation. The probability of hydride-related, ductile cladding failure during a severe transportation accident is not significantly affected by the pinching load amplitude: The probability is slightly reduced from a range of less than 0.0333% to 0.1667% for P{sub 9m}, to a range of less than 0.0333% to 0.1333% for P{sub AS}, depending on the vacuum drying peak cladding hoop stress modelling assumptions. Further, the SNF dry-storage duration does not significantly affect the probability of ductile pinching failure. Based on available train accidents data, the pinching failure probability for a 5,000 km long transportation route ranges from less than 1.62 E-7 to a value of 6.47 E-7, depending on the vacuum drying peak cladding hoop stress modelling assumptions. The pinching load amplitude is not a controlling parameter for the probability of ductile cladding pinching failure, and does not control the cladding deformations once pellet-cladding contact is established, The pellet-cladding gap width, however, plays a key role. Fuel pellet degradation only affects the deformation capacity, if the pellet stiffness is significantly reduced (more than 90%). Only highly embrittled cladding is likely to fail. The deformation demands on the cladding under pinching loading are small.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The resolve survey atomic gas census and environmental influences on galaxy gas reservoirs

We present the H i mass inventory for the REsolved Spectroscopy Of a Local VolumE (RESOLVE) survey, a volume-limited, multi-wavelength census of >1500 z = 0 galaxies spanning diverse environments and complete in baryonic mass down to dwarfs of ∼10{sup 9} M{sub ⊙}. This first 21 cm data release provides robust detections or strong upper limits (1.4M {sub H i} < 5%–10% of stellar mass M {sub *}) for ∼94% of RESOLVE. We examine global atomic gas-to-stellar mass ratios (G/S) in relation to galaxy environment using several metrics: group dark matter halo mass M {sub h}, central/satellite designation, relative mass density of the cosmic web, and distance to the nearest massive group. We find that at fixed M {sub *}, satellites have decreasing G/S with increasing M {sub h} starting clearly at M {sub h} ∼ 10{sup 12} M{sub ⊙}, suggesting the presence of starvation and/or stripping mechanisms associated with halo gas heating in intermediate-mass groups. The analogous relationship for centrals is uncertain because halo abundance matching builds in relationships between central G/S, stellar mass, and halo mass, which depend on the integrated group property used as a proxy for halo mass (stellar or baryonic mass). On larger scales G/S trends are less sensitive to the abundance matching method. At fixed M {sub h} ≤ 10{sup 12} M{sub ⊙}, the fraction of gas-poor centrals increases with large-scale structure density. In overdense regions, we identify a rare population of gas-poor centrals in low-mass (M {sub h} < 10{sup 11.4} M{sub ⊙}) halos primarily located within ∼1.5× the virial radius of more massive (M {sub h} > 10{sup 12} M{sub ⊙}) halos, suggesting that gas stripping and/or starvation may be induced by interactions with larger halos or the surrounding cosmic web. We find that the detailed relationship between G/S and environment varies when we examine different subvolumes of RESOLVE independently, which we suggest may be a signature of assembly bias.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Toward an integrated monitoring framework to assess the effects of tropical forest degradation and recovery on carbon stocks and biodiversity

Tropical forests harbor a significant portion of global biodiversity and are a critical component of the climate system. Reducing deforestation and forest degradation contributes to global climate-change mitigation efforts, yet emissions and removals from forest dynamics are still poorly quantified. We reviewed the main challenges to estimate changes in carbon stocks and biodiversity due to degradation and recovery of tropical forests, focusing on three main areas: (1) the combination of field surveys and remote sensing; (2) evaluation of biodiversity and carbon values under a unified strategy; and (3) research efforts needed to understand and quantify forest degradation and recovery. The improvement of models and estimates of changes of forest carbon can foster process-oriented monitoring of forest dynamics, including different variables and using spatially explicit algorithms that account for regional and local differences, such as variation in climate, soil, nutrient content, topography, biodiversity, disturbance history, recovery pathways, and socioeconomic factors. Generating the data for these models requires affordable large-scale remote-sensing tools associated with a robust network of field plots that can generate spatially explicit information on a range of variables through time. By combining ecosystem models, multiscale remote sensing, and networks of field plots, we will be able to evaluate forest degradation and recovery and their interactions with biodiversity and carbon cycling. In conclusion, improving monitoring strategies will allow a better understanding of the role of forest dynamics in climate-change mitigation, adaptation, and carbon cycle feedbacks, thereby reducing uncertainties in models of the key processes in the carbon cycle, including their impacts on biodiversity, which are fundamental to support forest governance policies, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Systems Analysis of Biomass and Coal Co-firing Power Plants with Deep Carbon Capture Toward Net-zero Emissions

Achieving a net-zero emission economy in the United States requires integrating diverse low-carbon and negative-emission technologies into the existing fossil fuel-dominant power fleet. Potential technologies from the low-carbon portfolio include renewable power, fossil power with carbon capture and storage (CCS), bioenergy with CCS (BECCS), and direct air capture (DAC). Renewable power is a clean energy source but has to pair with costly battery storage to provide dispatchable electricity. Fossil power with CCS offers dispatchable electricity yet still relies on DAC to offset residual emissions, even when deploying deep CCS with more than 90% CO2 capture. Coal-biomass co-firing with CCS, a subset of BECCS, is a reliable energy production technology that can be retrofitted from existing electricity generation units (EGUs). Power plant retrofit maximizes the use of the current U.S. coal power fleet without the need for large-scale deployment of new renewable power, battery storage, or DAC. Retrofitting coal-biomass co-firing with deep CCS in EGUs is a promising option, but not a universal solution. Biomass co-firing at a power plant introduces economic challenges and indirectly poses pressure on land and water resources. Meanwhile, retrofitting deep CCS affects plant efficiency and raises electricity generation costs. Overall, the technical feasibility and economic viability of plant retrofits vary across EGUs, as they are contingent upon the regional availability of biomass, unit-specific characteristics, site-specific fuel supply costs, and adjacent CO2 storage potential. Government incentives like 45Q can improve the retrofit viability, though the impact requires further quantification. A comprehensive analysis at the unit level is essential to address the question regarding the fate of the U.S. coal-fired electricity generation fleet toward the net-zero emission goal. This study conducts a systematic techno-economic-environmental assessment of EGUs to identify the viability of biomass co-firing and deep CCS retrofits in the U.S. coal-fired power fleet. Specifically, it characterizes the techno-economic performance of deep carbon capture, estimates life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and conducts a fleet-level assessment on retrofit viability. The key objectives are (1) to estimate the unit-specific performance and retrofitted cost under various biomass co-firing levels and CO2 capture rates; (2) to determine the possibility of reaching net-zero emission at the fleet level; (3) to quantify the cumulative capacities that are suitable for plant retrofits under current and future biomass supply scenarios; and (4) to improve the understanding of policy impacts on such retrofits to help the power sector’s transition to a net-zero economy. Techno-economic Model of Deep Carbon Capture. This study develops the performance and economic models for Monoethanolamine-based post-combustion CO2 capture at 95–99% capture rates. The process is simulated in Aspen Plus, analyzing the performance of carbon capture technology by varying the plant sizes, solvent lean loading, CO2 concentrations, and flue gas inlet temperature. Based on the key inputs and output parameters of CO2 capture, a reduced-order performance model of deep carbon capture is formulated. In addition, an engineering-economic model integrating the performance metrics is developed to estimate the capital as well as operation and maintenance (O&M) costs. Capital cost estimations follow the framework of the Integrated Environmental Control Model (IECM) and incorporate data regressions from three technical reports by IECM, the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL), and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The O&M cost estimation utilizes the actual inventory consumption rate and labor requirements. Both performance and cost models are embedded into IECM v13.0-beta, a fossil-fuel power plant modeling tool. Life Cycle Assessment of Power Plants. This study estimates the GHG emissions of power plants through life cycle assessment (LCA). The LCA scope includes fuel supply, combustion-based power generation, and CO2 transport and storage. The fuel-based life cycle module is designed following the framework of the NETL Unit Process Library and CO2U LCA Guidance Toolkit. The module is then incorporated into IECM v13.0-beta. The process-based LCA is applied to estimate the GHG emissions of coal and biomass supply, coal- and coal-biomass co-firing power plant operation, as well as CO2 pipeline transport and geographical sequestration. An uncertainty analysis is conducted to quantify the variability and uncertainty associated with the LCA using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method. Fleet-level Assessment. This study evaluates the technical and economic feasibility of selected coal-fired EGUs, examines the role of tax credits in retrofit viability, and assesses the competitiveness of retrofitted units against other low-carbon options. Unit screening identifies EGUs for the study, focusing on new, efficient baseload units with air pollution controls. The power plant databases are then established to organize unit-specific information on performance and operating conditions from the relevant public databases. Biomass for co-firing retrofits is selected based on home and neighboring county availability, ensuring sustained operation with at least a 5% co-firing level. The CO2 storage site is determined by state-level storage potential, with ArcGIS Pro and NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model used to identify the optimal balance between the nearest transport distances and affordable storage costs. The latest IECM v13.0-beta is then employed to configure and evaluate the eligible EGUs with or without the deployment of deep CCS and biomass co-firing. A supply curve is established to illustrate the cumulative installed capacity suitable for retrofits at different cost levels. A sensitivity analysis on tax credits for carbon sequestration is performed. Finally, a unit-level cost comparison is conducted among retrofitted plants, renewable power with battery storage, and abated fossil fuels with DAC. Expected Results. This study evaluates the technical, economic, and environmental metrics of each EGU across an array of CO2 capture rates and biomass co-firing level scenarios. Unit-level comparisons will identify critical factors influencing technical performance. The supply curves with and without tax incentives will provide insights into the impact of tax credits on biomass co-firing and CCS deployment. The cost comparisons with renewables and DAC-retrofit will assess the competitiveness of the retrofitted units. Life cycle emissions from each unit will be assessed to identify the scenarios under which net-zero emissions can be achieved. These analyses are expected to determine the total coal-fired capacity suitable for serving as a low-carbon energy source with or without tax incentives. The study results are novel in identifying optimal unit-specific strategies for producing carbon-neutral power, whether through retrofitting EGUs with deep CCS, biomass co-firing, DAC, or installing renewable power with battery. The findings will provide insight into nationwide efforts to ensure reliable, affordable, and low-carbon electricity. It also will inform investment decisions and policies in the deployment of deep carbon capture and negative emission technologies for a net-zero energy future.

Biomass Co-firing↗

Evaluation of Detritiation Strategies for Mitigating Tritium Releases

Tritium confinement is performed using different barriers to minimize releases to the environment. Primary confinement is usually performed by process piping and components, secondary confinement typically by inerted gloveboxes connected to a continuously operating tritium stripper system. Some facility designs employ tertiary tritium confinement by using process room confinement with a tritium stripper system activated after an accident to further mitigate tritium releases to the environment. Secondary confinement of some tritium systems such as radiation-hardened or shielded-cell enclosures are not easily achieved using designs for inerted glovebox. These enclosures can be challenging to seal for secondary tritium confinement due to heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) needs for temperature control, as well as feedthroughs for equipment and instrumentation, are potential pathways for tritium leaks or loses. Additional tritium leak paths can be created in secondary confinement enclosures due to a Design Basis Accident (DBA) seismic event. These new, larger tritium leak rates from the DBA event are usually not part of the stripper system design basis so all tritium released to the secondary confinement enclosure is assumed released to the environment. Detritiation strategies for shielded enclosures and/or gloveboxes with significant leak rates are necessary to minimize off-site radiological dose consequences. To address this, the relationship between the confinement system leak rate and stripper system (recirculating) flow rate was evaluated to meet prescribed maximum allowable environmental tritium emissions from the event. The simple analysis described assumes a constant leak rate from the confinement system (i.e. shielded enclosure or glovebox) while a recirculating stripper system strips tritium from the system– a competition between tritium release and tritium recovery. At a high level, the resulting expression summarizes the relationship between system leak rate (F L ) and stripper flow rate (F S ) relative to allowable tritium release (Q A ) and initial tritium release (Q 0 ): $\frac{F_L}{F_s}$ ≈ $\frac{Q_A}{Q_0}$. This report derives the relationship between these parameters, examines the impact of finite stripping times followed by purging of the stripped volume. The analysis provides example results for up to 30 gram tritium releases: the maximum tritium inventory of a Hazard Category III (Department of Energy) Nuclear Facility. The detritiation model presented represents a high-level analysis of tritium recovery versus losses for “leaky” confinement enclosures such as shielded cells after large tritium releases. Key parameters for doing the analyses are the system leak rate, stripper flow rate, initial tritium release, and allowable tritium release values. The analyses show a proportional decrease in releases with reduction in initial tritium release but a non-linear increase in tritium recovery with increased stripper flow rate or reduced leak-rate. The analyses also apply to glovebox confinement systems which could have significant increases in leak rates after a DBA. The analysis recognizes but does not include tritium absorption followed by re-emission from the walls of the confinement volume – an analysis which could be pursued in future studies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Semivolatile POA and parameterized total combustion SOA in CMAQv5.2: impacts on source strength and partitioning

Abstract. Mounting evidence from field and laboratory observations coupled with atmospheric model analyses shows that primary combustion emissions of organic compounds dynamically partition between the vapor and particulate phases, especially as near-source emissions dilute and cool to ambient conditions. The most recent version of the Community Multiscale Air Quality model version 5.2 (CMAQv5.2) accounts for the semivolatile partitioning and gas-phase aging of these primary organic aerosol (POA) compounds consistent with experimentally derived parameterizations. We also include a new surrogate species, potential secondary organic aerosol from combustion emissions (pcSOA), which provides a representation of the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) from anthropogenic combustion sources that could be missing from current chemical transport model predictions. The reasons for this missing mass likely include the following: (1) unspeciated semivolatile and intermediate volatility organic compound (SVOC and IVOC, respectively) emissions missing from current inventories, (2) multigenerational aging of organic vapor products from known SOA precursors (e.g., toluene, alkanes), (3) underestimation of SOA yields due to vapor wall losses in smog chamber experiments, and (4) reversible organic compounds–water interactions and/or aqueous-phase processing of known organic vapor emissions. CMAQ predicts the spatially averaged contribution of pcSOA to OA surface concentrations in the continental United States to be 38.6 and 23.6 % in the 2011 winter and summer, respectively. Whereas many past modeling studies focused on a particular measurement campaign, season, location, or model configuration, we endeavor to evaluate the model and important uncertain parameters with a comprehensive set of United States-based model runs using multiple horizontal scales (4 and 12 km), gas-phase chemical mechanisms, and seasons and years. The model with representation of semivolatile POA improves predictions of hourly OA observations over the traditional nonvolatile model at sites during field campaigns in southern California (CalNex, May–June 2010), northern California (CARES, June 2010), the southeast US (SOAS, June 2013; SEARCH, January and July, 2011). Model improvements manifest better correlations (e.g., the correlation coefficient at Pasadena at night increases from 0.38 to 0.62) and reductions in underprediction during the photochemically active afternoon period (e.g., bias at Pasadena from −5.62 to −2.42 µg m−3). Daily averaged predictions of observations at routine-monitoring networks from simulations over the continental US (CONUS) in 2011 show modest improvement during winter, with mean biases reducing from 1.14 to 0.73 µg m−3, but less change in the summer when the decreases from POA evaporation were similar to the magnitude of added SOA mass. Because the model-performance improvement realized by including the relatively simple pcSOA approach is similar to that of more-complicated parameterizations of OA formation and aging, we recommend caution when applying these more-complicated approaches as they currently rely on numerous uncertain parameters. The pcSOA parameters optimized for performance at the southern and northern California sites lead to higher OA formation than is observed in the CONUS evaluation. This may be due to any of the following: variations in real pcSOA in different regions or time periods, too-high concentrations of other OA sources in the model that are important over the larger domain, or other model issues such as loss processes. This discrepancy is likely regionally and temporally dependent and driven by interferences from factors like varying emissions and chemical regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Material Investigation and Long-term Sealing Behavior of Helicoflex{sup R} Metal Seals used in Containers for Spent Nuclear Fuel - 17135

In Germany spent nuclear fuel is stored and transported in casks that possess bolted lid systems equipped with double jacket metal seals of Helicoflex{sup R} type in order to enable safe enclosure of the radioactive inventory. A dry interim storage period of 40 years was planned and the casks are licensed for that time span. However, due to political reasons and delayed disposal projects this time span is expected to increase significantly. It is therefore necessary to evaluate the long-term sealing behavior of the casks exceeding 40 years of operating time. In this paper, we discuss our approach to investigate the aging behavior of such metal seals, and to predict the long-term sealing behavior. Accelerated aging component tests with seals are performed at temperatures up to 150 deg. C to investigate the course of seal force, usable resilience and leakage rate. Even though these tests have already shown a significant decrease in seal force and usable resilience after aging times of less than 1 year, for most seals the leakage rate stayed better than the specified value. However, observation of the leakage rate has to be continued to determine the aging effect on the seal properties. As a main influence on the seal long-term behavior the increasing permanent deformation of the outer jacket has been recognized. It is made of aluminum or silver which means that the temperatures that are relevant for the aforementioned application in casks lead to creep deformation. For further investigation of seal behavior a comprehensive research program concerning the material characteristics and aging behavior of the individual seal components, with an emphasis on the outer jacket material, has been launched. The aim is to get a better understanding of the time and temperature dependent creep mechanisms and deformation. The examinations are separated into tests on seal segments and tests on standardized specimen. In order to be able to study the aging process, seal segments are compressed in flanges and stored at temperatures ranging from room temperature to 150 deg. C. After defined time intervals the segments are analyzed by using standardized tests including structure investigation and creep tests. The results are compared with the behavior of the specimen basic raw material. This is done to ensure comparability of the thin jacket material and additional sheet material used for standardized tests. Thus, the prediction of component changes after different aging times at different temperatures can be made. As a result forecasts on the long term seal behavior are intended. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The Global Methane Budget 2000–2017

Understanding and quantifying the global methane (CH4) budget is important for assessing realistic pathways to mitigate climate change. Atmospheric emissions and concentrations of CH4 continue to increase, making CH4 the second most important human-influenced greenhouse gas in terms of climate forcing, after carbon dioxide (CO2). The relative importance of CH4 compared to CO2 depends on its shorter atmospheric lifetime, stronger warming potential, and variations in atmospheric growth rate over the past decade, the causes of which are still debated. Two major challenges in reducing uncertainties in the atmospheric growth rate arise from the variety of geographically overlapping CH4 sources and from the destruction of CH4 by short-lived hydroxyl radicals (OH). To address these challenges, we have established a consortium of multidisciplinary scientists under the umbrella of the Global Carbon Project to synthesize and stimulate new research aimed at improving and regularly updating the global methane budget. Following Saunois et al. (2016), we present here the second version of the living review paper dedicated to the decadal methane budget, integrating results of top-down studies (atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up estimates (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry, inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven extrapolations). For the 2008–2017 decade, global methane emissions are estimated by atmospheric inversions (a top-down approach) to be 576 Tg CH4/yr (range 550–594, corresponding to the minimum and maximum estimates of the model ensemble). Of this total, 359 Tg CH4/yr or ∼ 60 % is attributed to anthropogenic sources, that is emissions caused by direct human activity (i.e. anthropogenic emissions; range 336–376 Tg CH4/yr or 50 %–65 %). The mean annual total emission for the new decade (2008–2017) is 29 Tg CH4/yr larger than our estimate for the previous decade (2000–2009), and 24 Tg CH4/yr larger than the one reported in the previous budget for 2003–2012 (Saunois et al., 2016). Since 2012, global CH4 emissions have been tracking the warmest scenarios assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Bottom-up methods suggest almost 30 % larger global emissions (737 Tg CH4/yr, range 594–881) than top-down inversion methods. Indeed, bottom-up estimates for natural sources such as natural wetlands, other inland water systems, and geological sources are higher than top-down estimates. The atmospheric constraints on the top-down budget suggest that at least some of these bottom-up emissions are overestimated. The latitudinal distribution of atmospheric observation-based emissions indicates a predominance of tropical emissions (∼ 65 % of the global budget, < 30° N) compared to mid-latitudes (∼ 30 %, 30–60° N) and high northern latitudes (∼ 4 %, 60–90° N). The most important source of uncertainty in the methane budget is attributable to natural emissions, especially those from wetlands and other inland waters. Some of our global source estimates are smaller than those in previously published budgets (Saunois et al., 2016; Kirschke et al., 2013). In particular wetland emissions are about 35 Tg CH4/yr lower due to improved partition wetlands and other inland waters. Emissions from geological sources and wild animals are also found to be smaller by 7 Tg CH4/yr by 8 Tg CH4/yr, respectively. However, the overall discrepancy between bottom-up and top-down estimates has been reduced by only 5 % compared to Saunois et al. (2016), due to a higher estimate of emissions from inland waters, highlighting the need for more detailed research on emissions factors. Priorities for improving the methane budget include (i) a global, high-resolution map of water-saturated soils and inundated areas emitting methane based on a robust classification of different types of emitting habitats; (ii) further development of process-based models for inland-water emissions; (iii) intensification of methane observations at local scales (e.g., FLUXNET-CH4 measurements) and urban-scale monitoring to constrain bottom-up land surface models, and at regional scales (surface networks and satellites) to constrain atmospheric inversions; (iv) improvements of transport models and the representation of photochemical sinks in top-down inversions; and (v) development of a 3D variational inversion system using isotopic and/or co-emitted species such as ethane to improve source partitioning.

methane budget↗