Value of information analysis using geothermal field data: accounting for multiple interpretations & determining new drilling locations
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Industry-wide operating experience is a critical source of raw data for reliability and risk model parameter estimations for nuclear power plants. A large portion of operating experience data are failure events stored as reports that contain unstructured data, such as narratives. In current practice, a failure report is usually reviewed and manually coded by analysts. The coding is based on extracting several event characteristics such as system name, component type, sub-part type, failure mode, and failure cause. Event narratives are mostly used to help understand events and extract their characteristics. In this line of research, we aim to maximize the usage of event narratives by leveraging natural language processing (NLP) methods to automatically convert an event narrative to a causal graph. This research has promise to improve physical understanding of failure initiation and propagation and to facilitate use of non-failure data (e.g., near-misses and degradations) to complement the limited data pool of failures. In our previous work, we developed an NLP tool and applied it to analyze a number of licensee event reports submitted by U.S. nuclear power plants to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. In this paper, we will report our recent research progress in aggregating the results of multiple reports, developing network model(s), and drawing statistical insights.
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A selection of searches by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC for the electroweak production of SUSY particles are used to study their impact on the constraints on dark matter candidates.
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In the companion “Theory” article, we presented a new framing of the seismic location problem in terms of differential geometry (Harris et al., 2025). From that viewpoint, we developed a “project and correct” approach for estimating the relative locations of earthquakes. Here, in this study, we use project and correct to estimate high-precision relative locations of events from an earthquake sequence beneath the town of Pahala, Hawaii, using high-precision correlation-derived picks. The sequence was active from 2020 through 2022 and produced many highly correlated signals at Hawaii Volcano Observatory (HVO) stations on the island of Hawaii. The data we inverted consisted of 2882 events with observations at 5 HVO stations. For comparison with the travel-time image, we also produced conventional hypocenter solutions using both the Bayesloc program (Myers et al., 2007, 2009) and a purpose-built double-difference code. There were obvious structural elements in the resulting image, the resolution of which we used to test the performance of the project and the correct algorithm. For the projection step, we first produced a 3D local basis using an singular value decomposition (SVD) of the 2882 groups of times. Projection of the travel-time vectors into this basis resulted in an image with structures similar to those produced by our conventional locators, but with distortion as predicted by theory. Removing the distortion requires an inverse operator generated from the metric tensor at the geometric centroid of the events. We compared two approaches to obtaining such an inverse operator. The first uses an estimate of the geographic centroid of the event cloud from the centroid of the travel-time data. The second approach uses the centroid of the conventionally produced locations. The first approach produces a corrected image very similar to the conventional results, but with a rotation. The corrected image produced using the conventionally derived centroid is a near-exact match to the conventional locations.
Evaluation beyond aggregate performance metrics, e.g. F1-score, is crucial to both establish an appropriate level of trust in machine learning models and identify future model improvements. In this paper we demonstrate CrossCheck, an interactive visualization tool for rapid crossmodel comparison and reproducible error analysis. We describe the tool and discuss design and implementation details. We then present three use cases (named entity recognition, reading comprehension, and clickbait detection) that show the benefits of using the tool for model evaluation. CrossCheck allows data scientists to make informed decisions to choose between multiple models, identify when the models are correct and for which examples, investigate whether the models are making the same mistakes as humans, evaluate models’ generalizability and highlight models’ limitations, strengths and weaknesses. Furthermore, CrossCheck is implemented as a Jupyter widget, which allows rapid and convenient integration into data scientists’ model development workflows.
Summary Hydraulic fracturing is critical for extracting shale gas in the subsurface. The treatment technique of multistage hydraulic fracturing is widely used to maximize production. In multistage hydraulic fracturing, not all pumping stages make the same contribution for production, although the designed stimulation process is almost same in every pumping stage. In this study, we characterize the microseismic responses of hydraulic fracturing. Significant variations of microseismic characteristics are observed among the different pumping stages. Pre-existing natural fractures are examined along the horizontal well in selected stages. Combined with the Mohr’s circle analysis, results of the fracture study show that induced hydraulic fractures can be captured by pre-existing natural fractures. Induced hydraulic fractures are simulated by the unconventional fracture model (UFM), and the result reveals that the stress-shadow effect diverts the direction of hydraulic fractures. The diverted hydraulic fracture affects the development of the hydraulic fracture network, which has influence on production. The treatment of two-step pumping is investigated by application of hydraulic diffusivity. Hydraulic fracturing performance and production could be optimized by the treatment of two-step pumping in a single stage. The second pumping creates new fractures and fills the fractures with additional proppants to maintain production for a long duration.
Summary The objective of this study is to understand how microseismic events are generated during hydraulic fracturing, as well as the role of geomechanical conditions (i.e., stress and mechanical stratigraphy) in this process. In the industry, microseismic event clouds have been generally used as an “outer boundary” of the “stimulated reservoir volume” (SRV). However, by comparing with other surveillance data (low-frequency distributed acoustic sensing, or LF-DAS, strain) in the Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site (HFTS) 2 experiment, we show that this assumption is fundamentally flawed. The HFTS 2 data have three unique observations that have not been commonly observed in other datasets: (1) Due to the influence of offset pad depletion, microseismic data show that hydraulic fractures from the child well can propagate over 3,000 ft into the depleted low-stress zone. (2) By comparing microseismic and horizontal fiber LF-DAS strain data, we observe that the microseismic event cloud does not necessarily reflect the created hydraulic fracture volume. Particularly, the extent of microseismic event clouds near heel stages is much shorter than what is shown with LF-DAS strain data. (3) Microseismic event magnitudes are larger in the depleted regions. Through geomechanical analysis, we demonstrate that the “bedding-plane-slip” model is likely the mechanism for microseismic generation during hydraulic fracturing. This model successfully explains the above field observations from the HFTS 2 experiment. We also provide a quantitative relationship connecting the microseismic event magnitude with fracture width increment and layer mechanical property contrast.
Between 2008 and 2012, four colloid-facilitated transport experiments were conducted in a saturated shear zone at the Grimsel Test Site (GTS) in Switzerland under the auspices of the Colloids Formation and Migration (CFM) project.
Spectra from the “at-line” spectrometer were obtained during the ferrous sulfamate (FS) valence adjustment step of AFS-2 Batch #3 on 9/18/2013. These spectra were analyzed by mathematical principal component regression (PCR) techniques to evaluate the effectiveness of this treatment. Despite the complications from Pu(IV), we conclude that all Pu(VI) was consumed during the FS treatment, and that by the end of the treatment, about 85% was as Pu(IV) and about 15% was as Pu(III). Due to the concerns about the “odd” shape of the Pu(IV) peak and the possibility of this behavior being observed in the future, a follow-up sample was sent to SRNL to investigate this further. Analysis of this sample confirmed the previous results and concluded that it “odd” shape was due to an intermediate acid concentration. Since the spectral evidence shows complete reduction of Pu(VI) we conclude that it is appropriate to proceed with processing of this the batch of feed solution for HB-Line including the complexation of the fluoride with aluminum nitrate.
In October 2013, groundwater samples were collected from 10 wells from Site 300 and analyzed by the Environmental Radiochemistry Laboratory at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Groundwater samples were analyzed for groundwater age tracers: tritium, the helium isotope ratio of dissolved helium and the concentrations of dissolved noble gases (Helium, Neon, Argon, Krypton, and Xenon). A subset of the samples was also analyzed for excess nitrogen due to saturated zone denitrification. The age-dating data were used to evaluate the degree to which groundwater at a particular monitoring well was derived from pre-modern and/or modern sources. More specifically, the analyses can be used to determine whether the recharge age of the groundwater beneath the site pre-dates anthropogenic activities at the site.
This report summarizes the analyses of the groundwater results from sampling of PM-3-1 (deep) and PM-3-2 (shallow), with a particular focus of evaluating the groundwater geochemistry data in comparison to the geochemistry observed in other wells in the Thirsty Canyon area as well as to evaluate the potential source of 3H observed in these piezometers from previous sampling activities, which employed depth-discrete bailers or a Bennett submersible piston pump.
Predictive simulations of magnetic confinement fusion and burning plasmas will require the quantification of all uncertainties and errors relating to the simulation capabilities. These include: discretization error (temporal and spatial); incomplete convergence error (nonlinear, linear, etc.); uncertainties in input data (initial conditions, boundary conditions, coefficients, thermo-physical properties, source terms, etc.); and uncertainties in the component models (the specific form and parameter values).13 Typically, there is a focus on model parameter uncertainties but uncertainties about which model to use and about the bias or discrepancy of a particular model (sometimes called model form error) often dominate parameter uncertainty. This whitepaper addresses the challenges of performing uncertainty quantification (UQ) for expensive computational models.
This is a summary of work supported by LANL and in regards to particle motion.
This report combines and summarizes results for two groundwater-sampling events (October 2012 and October/November 2015) from the Sandia National Laboratories/New Mexico (SNL/NM) Burn Site Groundwater (BSG) Area of Concern (AOC) located in the Lurance Canyon Arroyo southeast of Albuquerque, NM in the Manzanita Mountains. The first phase of groundwater sampling occurred in October 2012 including samples from 19 wells at three separate sites that were analyzed by the Environmental Radiochemistry Laboratory at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory as part of a nitrate Monitored Natural Attenuation (MNA) evaluation. The three sites (BSG, Technical Area-V, and Tijeras Arroyo) are shown on the regional hydrogeologic map and described in the Sandia Annual Groundwater Monitoring Report. The first phase of groundwater sampling included six monitoring wells at the Burn Site, eight monitoring wells at Technical Area-V, and five monitoring wells at Tijeras Arroyo. Each groundwater sample was analyzed using the two specialized analytical methods, age-dating and denitrification suites. In September 2015, a second phase of groundwater sampling took place at the Burn Site including 10 wells sampled and analyzed by the same two analytical suites. Five of the six wells sampled in 2012 were resampled in 2015. This report summarizes results from two sampling events in order to evaluate evidence for in situ denitrification, the average age of the groundwater, and the extent of recent recharge of the bedrock fracture system beneath the BSG AOC.
The E-Area Vadose Zone Monitoring System (VZMS) includes lysimeter sampling points at many locations alongside and angling beneath the Engineered Trench #1 (ET1) disposal unit footprint. The sampling points for ET1 were selected for this study because collectively they showed consistently higher tritium (H-3) concentrations than lysimeters associated with other trench units. The VZMS tritium dataset for ET1 from 2001 through 2015 comprises concentrations at or near background levels at approximately half of locations through time, concentrations up to about 600 pCi/mL at a few locations, and concentrations at two locations that have exceeded 1000 pCi/mL. The highest three values through 2015 were 6472 pCi/mL in 2014 and 4533 pCi/mL in 2013 at location VL-17, and 3152 pCi/mL in 2007 at location VL-15. As a point of reference, the drinking water standard for tritium and a DOE Order 435.1 performance objective in the saturated zone at the distant 100-meter facility perimeter is 20 pCi/mL. The purpose of this study is to assess whether these elevated concentrations are indicative of a general trend that could challenge 2008 E-Area Performance Assessment (PA) conclusions, or are isolated perturbations that when considered in the context of an entire disposal unit would support PA conclusions.