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At least 811 records · Page 45

Uncertainty in Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation derived from different observed datasets and their possible causes

As a leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic in both observations and model simulations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) can have a substantial influence on regional and global climate. By using Low-Frequency Component Analysis, we explore the uncertainties of the resulting AMO indices and the corresponding spatial patterns derived from three observational SST datasets. We found that the known coherent spatial pattern of the AMO at the basin scale over the North Atlantic appears in two out of the three datasets. Further analysis indicates that both the warming trend and the different techniques used to construct these observed gridded SSTs contribute to the AMO’s spatial coherence over the North Atlantic, especially during periods of sparse data sampling. The SST in the Extended Reconstructed SST dataset version 5 (ERSSTv5), changes from being systematically below the other datasets during the dense sampling periods on either side of the Second World War (WWII), to systematically above the other datasets during WWII, thereby introducing an artificial 10–20-year variability that affects the AMO’s spatial coherence. This coherence in the AMO’s spatial pattern is also affected by bias adjustment in ERSSTv5 at relative cool (i.e., non-summer) seasons, and by the heterogeneous North Atlantic warming pattern. The different AMO patterns can induce the different effects of wind, surface heat fluxes, and then drive ocean circulation and its heat transport convergence, especially for some seasons. For AMO indices, both the different detrending methods and different observational data result in uncertainty for the period 1935–1950. Such SST uncertainty is important to detect the relative role of the atmosphere and ocean in shaping the AMO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Submodule-Level Decentralized Control for Cascaded Quadruple Active Bridge-Based Medium-Voltage Converters: Preprint

High-power, low-voltage DC (LVDC) loads, such as AI data centers, electric vehicle fast-charging hubs, and hydrogen electrolyzers, are accelerating the deployment of solid-state transformers (SSTs) that directly interface medium-voltage AC (MVAC) to LVDC, streamlining power delivery. This paper proposes a submodule-level decentralized control strategy for an SST comprising a cascaded H-bridge (CHB) active rectifier on the MVAC side and per-module quadruple-active-bridge (QAB) converters on the LVDC side with local controllers. The proposed strategy eliminates the need for high-fidelity, real-time cross-isolation communication by synchronizing all active bridges to a common heartbeat signal and enabling the primary- and secondary-side controllers to generate independent local control signals (phase shifts). The resultant phase shifts naturally govern average and double-line frequency power transfer between active bridges, enabling each side to meet its control objectives using only local measurements. Detailed controller design considerations are presented based on a stability analysis. Comprehensive electromagnetic-transient simulations demonstrate tight DC-link voltage regulation, high-quality grid currents, and robust operation under load transients and grid disturbances, without real-time communication among the submodule controllers. These results indicate that the proposed scheme can significantly enhance the reliability, scalability, and flexibility of cascaded bridge-based medium-voltage converters.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

FastrSHWFS Analysis

This code analyzes the reflection geometry of modified Shack-Hartmann Wavefront Sensor (SHWFS) masks, with a focus on the fastrSHWFS designs. It takes a height map of a reflective mask, divides it into sub apertures, removes the global focus term by referencing a central block, and fits local surface planes to each sub aperture. From these fits it computes reflection angles and propagates the corresponding rays downstream to determine spot positions and the overall reflected beam footprint as a function of distance. The implementation is parameterized in sub aperture size, number of sub apertures, focal length, and mask dimensions, so it can be adapted to different mask designs beyond the two current fastrSHWFS masks. The code: Converts mask bitmaps into physical height in microns and reconstructs a focus subtracted mask, divides the mask into a grid of sub apertures and assigns pixel and micron coordinates to each block, excludes user specified unused sub apertures from the analysis, fits a plane to each sub aperture to obtain local surface normals, propagates reflected rays to a range of z positions to compute ray spots and the full reflected beam width, computes the effective mask tilt angle with respect to the incoming beam as a function of propagation distance, and provides helper routines for plotting the grid over the mask and for visualizing the beam geometry. These tools are intended for iterating on fastrSHWFS mask designs and for planning downstream optical layouts, for example choosing lens positions and apertures that capture the reflected beam given known focal plane distances and beam widths.

Gerard, BenjaminL [Lawrence Livermore National Lab↗

Short- vs . long-range elastic distortion: structural dynamics of a [2 × 2] tetrairon( II ) spin crossover grid complex observed by time-resolved X-Ray crystallography

Spin crossover complexes (SCO) are among the most studied molecular switches due to their potential use in displays, sensors, actuators and memory components. A prerequisite to using these materials is the understanding of the structural changes following the spin transition at out-of-equilibrium conditions. So far, out-of-equilibrium studies in SCO solids have been focused on mononuclear complexes, though a growing number of oligonuclear SCO complexes showing cooperative effects are being reported. Here, we use time-resolved pink Laue crystallography to study the out-of-equilibrium dynamics of a [2 × 2] tetranuclear metallogrid of the form [Fe II 4 L Me 4 ](BF 4 ) 4 ·2MeCN ([L Me ] - = 4-methyl-3,5-bis{6-(2,2'-bipyridyl)}pyrazolate). The out-of-equilibrium spin state switching induced by a ps laser pulse demonstrates that the metallogrid exhibits a multi-step response similar to that reported for mononuclear complexes. Contrary to the mononuclear complexes, the metallogrid shows two types of elastic distortions at different time scales. The first is a short-range distortion that propagates over the entire Fe 4 grid complex during the ps time scale, and it is caused by the rearrangement of the coordination sphere of the photo-switching ion and the constant feedback between strongly linked metal ions. The second is a long-range distortion caused by the anisotropic expansion of the lattice during the ns time scale, observed in mononuclear materials. The structural analysis demonstrates that the long-range prevails over the short-range distortion, inducing the largest deformation of both the entire grid and the coordination sphere of each metal ion. The present study sheds light on the out-of -equilibrium dynamics of a non-cooperative oligonuclear complex.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Interconnection Cost Analysis in ISO-New England

Electric transmission system operators (ISOs, RTOs, or utilities) require new large generators seeking to connect to the grid to undergo a series of impact studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new transmission equipment or upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and assigns the costs of that equipment. Berkeley Lab has collected interconnection cost data for 194 projects in New England from interconnection studies performed between 2010 and 2021. Project-level cost summary data are available for download on this page. We find: -Interconnection costs have grown over time, especially for projects that withdraw. -Interconnection costs are highest for onshore wind, followed by solar and storage. Natural gas and offshore wind projects tend to cost less to interconnect, in comparison. -Economies of scale exist for solar and possibly storage projects, but not for other resource types. -Wind and solar projects requesting capacity network resource interconnection service have higher interconnection costs, despite being evaluated using the same interconnection standard in the analyzed studies. -Low and high interconnection costs can be found throughout the ISO-NE footprint. -Costs are split fairly evenly between investments at the point of interconnection and within the broader network for active and withdrawn projects, while complete projects incur most costs at the point of interconnection.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Preliminary Gap Analysis of Existing IEEE 1547 and IEEE 2800 Standards Towards GFM Technology

This document describes the tests that are conducted on generic grid-forming (GFM) distributed energy resource (DER) and inverter-based resource (IBR) models to check if the performance of the model aligns respectively with the IEEE Std 1547 TM -2018 and IEEE Std 2800 TM -2022 requirements. For the IEEE Std 1547 TM -2018 requirements, specifically the tests related to volt-var requirements and frequency droop requirements are conducted. For the IEEE Std 2800 TM -2022 requirements, specifically the tests conducted are related to reactive- power-voltage control requirements, active-power-frequency response requirements, voltage disturbance ride through requirements and phase jump ride through requirements. This is an initial draft/document. There are many more tests still yet to be done to further verify if the existing standards have a gap or inadvertent barrier to GFM technology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Analysis and design of DC-link capacitor in cascaded H-bridge multilevel active front-end converter

Medium-voltage grid-tied systems often use a cascaded H-bridge multi-level active front-end. In this converter, dc link bus capacitors play an important role in stabilizing the converter and enabling both active and reactive power injections. The present work provides analytical expressions for the capacitor current, which are essential for optimizing system design (especially capacitor size vs. lifetime). Then, the expression is incorporated into the grid connected bidirectional power system model. Consequently, this work contributes to the guiding principles to choose accurate dc link capacitor ratings against grid-side power delivery requirements. DC-link capacitors come with an expiration date which is dependent on the operating power and voltage values. Lack of information about the lifetime of the dc-link capacitor creates uncertainty in the duration of online operation of the converter, thus increasing the probability of a contingency outage. The lifetime of the capacitor can range from only a few seconds of online operation of the station due to under-sizing, to a compromised quality of power flowing through other solid state devices which may not have been designed for the transients that are caused by over-sizing of the dc-link capacitor. A better estimate of the lifetime of these capacitors can help maximize usage and maintain scheduled outages more efficiently, without disruption in service.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

A cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven short-term load forecasting methods with large-scale smart meter data

Electricity load forecasting is essential to utility operation and power grid stability. A wide spectrum of data-driven methods, ranging from linear regression models to more recent deep learning models have been adopted to forecast electric load over the years. However, there still lacks a holistic evaluation of the applicability of conventional statistical and machine learning based algorithms with respect to different temporal and spatial scopes, computational requirements, and sensitivity of model-tuning. Enabled by a large-scale electricity load profile dataset of over 40,000 residential customers in a utility region, we conducted a cross-dimensional analysis of data-driven load forecasting methods. Three regression-based and seven deep learning algorithms with different model configurations were evaluated in terms of their overall and peak load prediction accuracy, and training burdens, across spatial aggregation levels ranging from the transformer, feeder, substation, to neighborhood. We found, first, the load forecasting accuracy is constrained by a predictability boundary, influenced by the forecasting horizon and spatial aggregation level. Specifically, RandomForest, XGBoost, TFT, TSMixer, and TiDE models achieved less than 10 % prediction error for up to 96-h ahead forecasting for district, substation, and feeder levels, while other models struggle at long-horizon predictions; Second, for winter and summer peak load dates, most models were able to predict the peak demand timing within ± 1 h, but the prediction percentage error varied by models, with TFT and TiDE models being the top performers; Third, models with similar prediction accuracy can differ in training burden by an order of magnitude. Therefore, choosing model configurations that balance prediction performance and computational resource is an important practical consideration for large-scale deployment of the machine learning based load forecasting. The outcome of this study can guide researchers and practitioners to choose the proper load forecasting algorithms based on their problem scope, required accuracy, and available resources. The predictability boundary can serve as a benchmark for electricity load forecasting problems with new algorithms and datasets.

Li, Han↗

Deep learning ferroelectric polarization distributions from STEM data via with and without atom finding

Over the last decade, scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) has emerged as a powerful tool for probing atomic structures of complex materials with picometer precision, opening the pathway toward exploring ferroelectric, ferroelastic, and chemical phenomena on the atomic scale. Analyses to date extracting a polarization signal from lattice coupled distortions in STEM imaging rely on discovery of atomic positions from intensity maxima/minima and subsequent calculation of polarization and other order parameter fields from the atomic displacements. Here, we explore the feasibility of polarization mapping directly from the analysis of STEM images using deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs). In this approach, the DCNN is trained on the labeled part of the image (i.e., for human labelling), and the trained network is subsequently applied to other images. We explore the effects of the choice of the descriptors (centered on atomic columns and grid-based), the effects of observational bias, and whether the network trained on one composition can be applied to a different one. This analysis demonstrates the tremendous potential of the DCNN for the analysis of high-resolution STEM imaging and spectral data and highlights the associated limitations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reconductoring Economic and Financial Analysis Tool (REFA) v1.0

REFA is designed to help transmission planners better understand the financial, environmental and economic benefits of reconductoring upgrades, using traditional or advanced conductors. More specifically, the tool enables grid planners and utilities to demonstrate the entire lifetime value of reconductoring projects, providing potential justifications for projects with higher Capex - the purchase of long-term physical or fixed assets used in a business's operations. Existing tools are designed to compare technical aspects of different conductor applications. They typically do not allow a cost-benefit analysis over the lifetime of the conductor's operations.

Heleno, Miguel↗

Angle Droop Design for Grid-Forming Inverters Considering Impacts of Virtual Impedance Control

Grid-forming inverters (GFMs) based on active power-frequency droop control and reactive power-voltage droop control have been developed in recent years, which can generate voltage and frequency references for islanded power systems or microgrids to improve system-wide synchronization and power-sharing capability. It is known that the control delays in GFMs may cause system harmonic instability. To eliminate this issue, virtual impedance techniques are normally adopted. This paper gives a comprehensive examination of the impacts of virtual impedance control block Z v in GFMs on system stability. It is revealed that although Z v is effective in eliminating system harmonic stability, it may ruin system synchronization stability as a side effect. To compensate for the negative impacts caused by Z v , an active power-angle control block is added into the conventional droop control. Design criteria are also proposed accordingly to ensure system stability over the entire frequency range. Simulations and experimental testing are conducted to validate the analysis and the proposed design guidelines. It can be concluded that the Z v control-caused grid-synchronization instability issues can be eliminated with an appropriate active power-angle droop design.

Kong, Le↗

Small Hydropower Interconnections: Analysis of Interconnection Processes

Small hydropower projects have faced the challenge of navigating the process to interconnect their generation source to electricity distribution and transmission grids. Small hydropower developers have found interconnection procedures to be opaque and ultimately result in unexpected cost surprises and long timelines. Noting these challenges, the U.S. Department of Energy Water Power Technologies Office enlisted Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to investigate the small hydropower interconnection landscape across the United States. After reviewing the status of small hydropower (“Small Hydropower Interconnections: Small Hydropower in the United States”) and the interconnection procedures across the United States (“Small Hydropower Interconnections: State Interconnection Processes”) in the first two white papers of this series, this paper uses recent data from small hydropower interconnection applications to benchmark the efficacy of the process. Using data from interconnection queues hosted by utilities, balancing authorities, independent system operators (ISOs), and regional transmission organizations (RTOs), this paper provides context for the costs, timelines, and types of upgrades required for small hydropower projects. Interconnection applications and study reports for small hydropower projects were analyzed to collect key pieces of information about the interconnection process, timeline, costs, and type of upgrades required for interconnection. Information sourced from the reports was entered into an Interconnection Benchmarking database (IBdb), which may be found in Appendix A.1. Information from this database was used to evaluate the performance and challenges associated with interconnecting small hydropower projects. This white paper presents a description of the sources contained in the interconnection database (Section 2.0), an analysis of the interconnection timeline (Section 3.0), an evaluation the cost of interconnection upgrades (Section 4.0), and a description of the types of infrastructure upgrades (Section 5.0). The final paper in this series (“Small Hydropower Interconnections: Best Practices”) will use the analysis described here to outline best practices for interconnection processes that will help overcome barriers to future small hydropower development.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Surface Cloud Grid Version 2 (SFCCLDGRID2) Value-Added Product: Description of Update"

This document describes the algorithm used for the Surface Cloud Grid Value-Added Product (VAP). This VAP uses as input the 15-min. output from the Shortwave (SW) Flux Analysis VAP (see Long 2001; Long and Ackerman 2000; Long et al. 1999) from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Reseach Facility (ACRF) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility and extended facilities. This network of 21 sites is unevenly spaced over northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas, covering an area from 95.5° to 99.5° west longitude and 34.5° to 38.5° north latitude. For research applications such as single-column modeling, an estimate of the cloud and cloud effects distribution over this entire domain is desirable. The Surface Cloud Grid VAP applies a multi-pass weighted sum analytic approximation technique (Caracena 1987), which uses Gaussian weighting and an imposed scale length, to interpolate to a 0.25° by 0.25° lat/long grid over the SGP domain. The output, like the input, includes solar elevation angles of 10° or greater.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Extension of the high-resolution thermal-hydraulics code ESCOT to hexagonal core geometries for multi-physics calculations

The extension of the capabilities of the pin-level nuclear reactor core thermal-hydraulics (T/H) code ESCOT to analyze hexagonal fueled cores and its performance are presented. ESCOT is an accurate yet fast core thermal-hydraulics solution aiming at high-fidelity and high-resolution multi-physics core analysis in the framework of massively parallel computing platforms. Its algorithm solution is based on the four-equation drift-flux model for two-phase calculations, these are numerically solved by applying the Finite Volume Method (FVM) and the Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure-Linked Equation (SIMPLE)-like algorithm in a staggered grid system. Constitutive models such as turbulent mixing, pressure drop, and vapor generation are employed to simulate key phenomena in subchannel-scale analysis. ESCOT is parallelized by a double (radial and axial) domain decomposition that enables its highly parallelized execution. The coupling of the code with the neutronics whole core solver for hexagonal geometries nTRACER is described. The newly implemented ESCOT features are validated by comparing single assembly and full core steady state nTRACER-ESCOT solutions with nTRACER standalone internal one-dimensional T/H solver results. The validation problems are based on the VVER 440 and VVER 1000 cores. ESCOT results show differences within an acceptable range with respect to the simple 1D nTRACER built-in solver. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Decoupling Power Quality Issues in Grid-Microgrid Network Using Microgrid Building Blocks

Microgrids are evolving as promising options to enhance reliability of the connected transmission and distribution systems. Traditional design and deployment of microgrids require significant engineering analysis. However, Microgrid Building Blocks (MBB), consisting of modular blocks that integrate seamlessly to form effective microgrids, are promising technologies to enable faster and broader adoption of microgrids. Back-to-Back converter placed at the point of common coupling of microgrid is an integral part of MBB. This paper presents applications of MBB to decouple power quality issues in grid-microgrid network serving power quality sensitive critical loads such as data centers, new grid-edge technologies such as vehicle-to-grid generation, and emergency condition loads such as electric vehicle charging loads during evacuation prior disaster events. Simulation results show that MBB effectively decouple the power quality issues across networks and allow network with low power quality to transfer high-power quality power to connected networks during emergency conditions.

Acharya, Samrat S. [BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)]↗

Techno-Economic Analysis for the Addition of a Thermal Energy Storage System to a Central Plant

Increasing energy demand and rising peak loads present significant challenges for energy management in commercial and institutional settings. As climate change drives greater cooling needs, central plants must navigate the complex tradeoffs between operational efficiency, cost control, and grid stability. Thermal energy storage (TES) systems offer a viable solution by shifting energy consumption from peak to off-peak periods, thereby reducing peak demand, lowering utility expenses, and improving grid resilience. However, the success of TES implementation hinges on appropriate system sizing, effective control strategies, and alignment with local utility rate structures. This article presents a techno-economic analysis of integrating a chilled water TES system into the central plant at California State University, Dominguez Hills. Drawing on historical load profiles and utility tariffs, we assess three TES sizing approaches and their corresponding control strategies from both energy and economic perspectives. This article utilizes a model-based approach to assess the impact of TES sizing and control strategies on the techno-economic feasibility of integrating TES into an existing central plant. The models employed for this analysis were calibrated using 4 years of historical data. Here, the results demonstrated that utility tariffs and the campus's operational profiles dictate the most feasible sizing and control methods. The findings offer valuable insights for institutions and commercial building managers exploring sustainable energy solutions. By demonstrating how optimized TES strategies can improve operational efficiency while achieving financial savings, this study highlights the potential for TES to align performance with cost effectiveness in real-world applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

South Asia Group for Energy-India

The South Asia Group for Energy (SAGE) is working with Grid India and the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) to determine the best methods to deploy more inverter-based resources (IBR) such as solar photovoltaic generators and utility-scale battery. To address grid strength and stability concerns, planners and operators are working with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) team, through SAGE, to identify potential solutions for strengthening the grid and fostering grid reliability.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Coordinated Market Design for Peer-to-Peer Energy Trade and Ancillary Services in Distribution Grids

A novel peer-to-peer (P2P) market design is proposed in this work for the distribution grid level. Envisioning that the grid constraints violations are the major challenge for P2P energy sharing, we propose they are handled through the ancillary service (AS) market. By calculating the decomposable distribution locational marginal prices (DLMPs), the essential price signals of procuring AS can be recovered to determine the grid usage prices (GUPs) to each P2P transaction. Hence, the GUPs, due to their decomposable properties, act as incentive signals for the P2P market to support the grid operation in terms of loss reduction, voltage support and congestion management. The proposed market design comprises: i) an interactive market design of P2P trade & AS and, ii) a fully decentralized peer-centric market clearing model for P2P energy trade. The duality analysis provides the composition of market equilibrium prices of P2P trading and their interpretations. The case studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed P2P trade to support grid operational objectives.

Zhang, Kai↗