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Telecommunications service demand, net addressable forecast, capacity requirements, and satellite system market development are considered.
Thermal infrared data taken from the GOES satellite over a period of several hours was color enhanced by computer according to temperature. The varying temperatures were then used to assist in frost forecasting. Input from Michigan and Pennsylvania to the cold climate mapping project is emphasized in the report of the second year's activities of a two year effort.
Since the first of two minicomputers that are the main components of the satellite frost forecast system was delivered in 1977, the system has evolved appreciably. A geostationary operational environmental satellite (GOES) system provides the satellite data. The freeze of January 12-14, 1981, was documented with increasing interest in potential of such systems. Satellite data is now acquired digitally rather than by redigitizing the GOES-Tap transmissions. Data acquisition is now automated, i.e., the computers are programmed to operate the system with little, if any, operation intervention.
The mission, instrumentation, and design concepts for microwave radiometer satellites for continuous crop condition forecasting and monitoring on a global basis are described. Soil moisture affects both crop growth and the dielectric properties of the soil, and can be quantified by analysis of reflected radiance passively received by orbiting spacecraft. A dedicated satellite reading a swath 200 km across, with 1 km and 1 K temperature resolution, could track the time-varying changes of solid moisture, sea ice, and water surface temperature. Launched by the Shuttle into an interim orbit, a boost would place the satellite in a 400 or 700 km orbit. Resolution requirements indicate a 45-725 m diam antenna, with 70 dB gain, operating at frequencies of 1.08, 2.03, and 4.95 GHz to ensure atmospheric transparency. Alternative structural concepts include either double-layer tetrahedral or single-layer geodesic trusses as the basic structural members. An analysis of the electrostatic positioning of the parabolic antenna membrane is outlined.
The underlying concept of the technology is to estimate crop area and yield for specified regions and to multiply the two to obtain production at the regional level. The treatment here is mainly of area estimation. The approach to non-U.S. crop forecasting does not require ground observations. Among the problems hampering development are the need to estimate crop areas much earlier in the season and the need for information extraction methods that reduce the quantity and quality of the data required.
For this project, a version of the GLAS Analysis/Forecast System was developed that includes an objective dealiasing scheme as an integral part of the analysis cycle. With this system the (100 sq km) binned SASS wind data generated by S. Peteherych of AER, Canada corresponding of the period 0000 GMT 7 September 1978 to 1200 GMT 13 September 1978 was objectively dealiased. The dealiased wind fields have been requested and received by JPL, NMC and the British Meteorological Office. The first 3.5 days of objectively dealiased fields were subjectively enhanced on the McIDAS system. Approximately 20% of the wind directions were modified, and of these, about 70% were changed by less than 90 deg. Two SASS forecast impact studies, were performed using the dealiased fields, with the GLAS and the NEPRF (Navy Environmental Prediction Research Facility) analysis/forecast systems.
The GLAS 4th Order Forecast-Analysis System is described in terms of its operating system requirements. A description of the operating system structure and components is given.
The impact of SEASAT-A scatterometer (SASS) winds on coarse resolution atmospheric model forecasts was assessed. The scatterometer provides high resolution winds, but each wind can have up to four possible directions. One wind direction is correct; the remainder are ambiguous or "aliases'. In general, the effect of objectively dealiased-SASS data was found to be negligible in the Northern Hemisphere. In the Southern Hemisphere, the impact was larger and primarily beneficial when vertical temperature profile radiometer (VTPR) data was excluded. However, the inclusion of VTPR data eliminates the positive impact, indicating some redundancy between the two data sets.
The experience gained in the design and development of Shuttle flight and ground support embedded software systems along with projections of increasing role and size of software in the proposed Space Station and other future NASA projects provides the basis for forecasting substantial changes in the tools and methodologies by which embedded software systems are developed and acquired. Similar changes in software architectures and operator interfaces will lead to substantial changes in the approach and techniques involved in software test and system integration. Increasing commonality among different flight systems and between flight and supporting ground systems is projected, along with a more distributed approach to software acquisition in highly complex projects such as Space Station.
Data simulations and real data tests indicate that the treatment of the initial divergence field in a mesoscale weather prediction model strongly influences the quality of the first 6 hours of a rainfall forecast. Of the procedures tested for determining the initial divergence field for the predictions, the best technique is found to be the Tarbell et al. (1981) diagnostic procedure, where a diabatic form of the omega equation is used to obtain a three-dimensional vertical motion field that in turn can be used in conjunction with a continuity equation to obtain the horizontal divergence fields.
The utility of VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) temperature and moisture soundings in defining the storm and its surroundings at subsynoptic scales has been examined using a numerical analysis and prognosis system. In particular, VAS temperature and moisture soundings and cloud and water vapor motion winds have been used in numerical analysis for three time periods. It is shown that the VAS temperature and moisture data which specify temperature and moisture well in cloud free regions are complemented by cloud and water vapor wind data which provide horizontal gradient information for the cloudy areas. The loss of analysis integrity due to the reduction of VAS data density in the cloudy regions associated with synoptic activity is ameliorated by using cloud and water vapor motion winds. The improvement in numerical forecasts resulting from the addition of these data to the numerical data base is also recorded.
Atmospheric predictability is explored between a week and a month by means of the use of comprehensive atmospheric models. Emphasis will be on a priori estimations of forecast skill.
Energetics characteristics of Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) General Circulation Models (GCM) as they are reflected on the First GARD GLobal Experiment (FGGE) analysis data set are discussed. Energetics descriptions of GLAS GCM forecast experiments are discussed as well as Eneretics response of GLAS GCM climatic simulation experiments.
The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 2 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 2 compares various catagories of flight plans and flight tracking data produced by a simulation system developed for the Federal Aviation Administrations by SRI International. (Flight tracking data simulate actual flight tracks of all aircraft operating at a given time and provide for rerouting of flights as necessary to resolve traffic conflicts.) The comparisons of flight plans on the forecast to flight plans on the verifying analysis confirm Task 1 findings that wind speeds are generally underestimated. Comparisons involving flight tracking data indicate that actual fuel burn is always higher than planned, in either direction, and even when the same weather data set is used. Since the flight tracking model output results in more diversions than is known to be the case, it was concluded that there is an error in the flight tracking algorithm.
In this study, the existing seasonal snow cover area runoff forecasting models of the Indus, Kabul, Sutlej and Chenab basins were evaluated with the concurrent flow correlation model for the period 1975-79. In all the basins under study, correlation of concurrent flow model explained the variability in flow better than by the snow cover area runoff models. Actually, the concurrent flow correlation model explained more than 90 percent of the variability in the flow of these rivers. Compared to this model, the snow cover area runoff models explained less of the variability in flow. In the Himalayan river basins under study and at least for the period under observation, the concurrent flow correlation model provided a set of results with which to compare the estimates from the snow cover area runoff models.
A deterministic numerical model of the coupled evolution of the tropical ocean and atmosphere was used to forecast all El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events from 1970 to 1986. More particularly, the model, originally developed for studying large-scale ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropics, successfully predicted the characteristics of the spatial and temporal structure of ENSO observed in the study interval. The model indicated that rainfall moving eastward over the Pacific slackens the surface winds that would otherwise cool the eastern Pacific by drawing up cooler subsurface waters. The oceanic thermocline increases, a poleward flow of westerly flowing warn waters deplets the equatorial warm water reservoir, and sea surface temperatures decline. These ENSO conditions are statistically tractable with the model several months in advance, provided upper ocean layer thermal data are available.
The research reported in the present paper has the objective to develop improved operational techniques for sea breeze (SB) initiated convective storms. It is pointed out that the sea breeze is a relatively simple mesoscale circulation. The considered studies are mainly concerned with detailed thunderstorm potential forecasts during the next several hours, taking into account real-time predictions using new supercomputer technology. Thunderstorm and coastal mesoscale circulations are discussed along with the P3DM model sea. The considered code represents the result of a further development of the NOAA Florida sea breeze model which was introduced by Pielke (1974). After its modificataion, the model was renamed the Prognostic Three Dimensional Mesoscale (P3DM) Model, with its 2-D connterpart the P2DM. Attention is also given to real time climatology, and a case study concerned with developments occurring on 5 May 1984 over the Florida Peninsula.
In order to forecast turbulence, one needs to have an understanding of the cause of turbulence. Therefore, an attempt is made to show the atmospheric structure that often results when aircraft encounter moderate or greater turbulence. The analysis is based on thousands of hours of observations of flights over the past 39 years of aviation meteorology.