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At least 811 records · Page 45

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multi-Model Subseasonal Prediction Experiment

SubX is a multi-model subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have produced seventeen years of retrospective (re-) forecasts and more than a year of weekly real-time forecasts. The re-forecasts and forecasts are archived at the Data Library of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, providing a comprehensive database for research on subseasonal to seasonal predictability and predictions. The SubX models show skill for temperature and precipitation three weeks ahead of time in specific regions. The SubX multi-model ensemble mean is more skillful than any individual model overall. Skill in simulating the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), two sources of subseasonal predictability, is also evaluated with skillful predictions of the MJO four weeks in advance and of the NAO 2 weeks in advance. SubX is also able to make useful contributions to operational forecast guidance at the Climate Prediction Center. Additionally, SubX provides information on the potential for extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones which can help emergency management and aid organizations to plan for disasters. (Capsule Summary) A research to operations project in service of developing better operational subseasonal forecasts.

Precipitation↗

Evaluation of Crew-Centric Onboard Mission Operations Planning and Execution Tool: Year 2

Currently, mission planning for the International Space Station (ISS) is largely affected by ground operators in mission control. The task of creating a week-long mission plan for ISS crew takes dozens of people multiple days to complete, and is often created far in advance of its execution. As such, re-planning or adapting to changing real-time constraints or emergent issues is similarly taxing. As we design for future mission operations concepts to other planets or areas with limited connectivity to Earth, more of these ground-based tasks will need to be handled autonomously by the crew onboard.There is a need for a highly usable (including low training time) tool that enables efficient self-scheduling and execution within a single package. The ISS Program has identified Playbook as a potential option. It already has high crew acceptance as a plan viewer from previous analogs and can now support a crew self-scheduling assessment on ISS or on another mission. The goals of this work, a collaboration between the Human Research Program and the ISS Program, are to inform the design of systems for more autonomous crew operations and provide a platform for research on crew autonomy for future deep space missions. Our second year of the research effort have included new insights on the crew self-scheduling sessions performed by the crew through use on the HERA (Human Exploration Research Analog) and NEEMO (NASA Extreme Environment Mission Operations) analogs. Use on the NEEMO analog involved two self-scheduling strategies where the crew planned and executed two days of EVAs (Extra-Vehicular Activities). On HERA year two represented the first HERA campaign where we were able to perform research tasks. This involved selected flexible activities that the crew could schedule, mock timelines where the crew completed more complex planning exercises, usability evaluation of the crew self-scheduling features, and more insights into the limit of plan complexity that the crew could effectively self-schedule. In parallel we have added in new features and functionality in the Playbook tool based off of our insights from crew self-scheduling in the NASA analogs. In particular this year we have added in the ability for the crew to add, edit, and remove their own activities in the Playbook tool, expanding the type of planning and re-planning possible in the tool and opening up the ability for more free form plan creation. The ability to group and manipulate groups of activities from the plan task list was also added, allowing crew members to add predefined sets of activities onto their mission timeline. In addition we also added a way for crew members to roll back changes in their plan, in order to allow an undo like capability. These features expand and complement the initial self-scheduling features added in year one with the goal of making crew autonomous planning more efficient. As part of this work we have also finished developing the first version of our Playbook Data Analysis Tool, a research tool built to interpret and analyze the unobtrusively collected data obtained during the NASA analog missions through Playbook. This data which includes user click interaction as well as plan change information, through the Playbook Data Analysis Tool, allows us to playback this information as if a video camera was mounted over the crewmember's tablet. While the primary purpose of this tool is to allow usability analysis of crew self-scheduling sessions used on the NASA analog, since the data collected is structured, the tool can automatically derive metrics that would be traditionally tedious to achieve without manual analysis of video playback. We will demonstrate and discuss the ability for future derived metrics to be added to the tool. In addition to the current data and results gathered in year two we will also discuss the preparation and goals of our International Space Station (ISS) onboard technology demonstration with Playbook. This technology demonstration will be preformed as part of the CAST payload starting in late 2016.

onboard planning↗

Technoeconomic optimization of superalloy supercritical CO 2 microtube shell-and-tube-heat exchangers

Heat exchangers are critical components of aerospace systems and improve efficiency of operation by providing waste heat recovery. Supercritical CO has emerged as a promising candidate working fluid due to its potential in increasing the power density of heat exchangers. In this paper, a generalized costing model is developed to estimate the capital costs incurred to manufacture microtube shell-and-tube heat exchangers. This model is utilized in conjunction with an accurate and efficient 2D numerical shell-and-tube heat exchanger performance prediction model to conduct optimization studies with two key objectives – minimization of cost and maximization of heat exchanger power density – on supercritical CO microtube heat exchangers utilizing superalloy Haynes 282 as the solid material. A methodology is then demonstrated to optimize these heat exchangers using Particle Swarm Optimization for aerospace applications and highly compact and cost-effective optimal designs with power density around 20 and cost per conductance less than 5 $ ∙ K/W are obtained.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A data-driven operational model for traffic at the Dallas Fort Worth International Airport

Airports are on the front line of significant innovations, allowing the movement of more people and goods faster, cheaper, and with greater convenience. As air travel continues to grow, airports will face challenges in responding to increasing passenger vehicle traffic, which leads to lower operational efficiency, poor air quality, and security concerns. This paper evaluates methods for traffic demand forecasting combined with traffic microsimulation, which will allow airport operations staff to accurately predict traffic and congestion. Using two years of detailed data describing individual vehicle arrivals and departures, aircraft movements, and weather at Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) International Airport, we evaluate multiple prediction methods including the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) family of models, traditional machine learning models, and DeepAR, a modern recurrent neural network (RNN). We find that these algorithms are able to capture the diurnal trends in the surface traffic, and all do very well when predicting the next 30 minutes of demand. Longer forecast horizons are moderately effective, demonstrating the challenge of this problem and highlighting promising techniques as well as potential areas for improvement. Traffic demand is not the only factor that contributes to terminal congestion, because temporary changes to the road network, such as a lane closure, can make benign traffic demand highly congested. Combining a demand forecast with a traffic microsimulation framework provides a complete picture of traffic and its consequences. The result is an operational intelligence platform for exploring policy changes, as well as infrastructure expansion and disruption scenarios. To demonstrate the value of this approach, we present results from a case study at DFW Airport assessing the impact of a policy change for vehicle routing in high demand scenarios. This framework can assist airports like DFW as they tackle daily operational challenges, as well as explore the integration of emerging technology and expansion of their services into long term plans.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Crossover from 2D Ferromagnetic Insulator to Wide Band Gap Quantum Anomalous Hall Insulator in Ultrathin MnBi 2 Te 4

Intrinsic magnetic topological insulators offer low disorder and large magnetic band gaps for robust magnetic topological phases operating at higher temperatures. By controlling the layer thickness, emergent phenomena such as the quantum anomalous Hall (QAH) effect and axion insulator phases have been realized. Furthermore, these observations occur at temperatures significantly lower than the Néel temperature of bulk MnBi 2 Te 4 , and measurement of the magnetic energy gap at the Dirac point in ultrathin MnBi 2 Te 4 has yet to be achieved. Critical to achieving the promise of this system is a direct measurement of the layer-dependent energy gap and verification of a temperature-dependent topological phase transition from a large band gap QAH insulator to a gapless TI paramagnetic phase. Here we utilize temperature-dependent angle-resolved photoemission spectroscopy to study epitaxial ultrathin MnBi 2 Te 4 . We directly observe a layer-dependent crossover from a 2D ferromagnetic insulator with a band gap greater than 780 meV in one septuple layer (1 SL) to a QAH insulator with a large energy gap (>70 meV) at 8 K in 3 and 5 SL MnBi 2 Te 4 . The QAH gap is confirmed to be magnetic in origin, as it becomes gapless with increasing temperature above 8 K.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Development and Experimental Validation of a High-Power DC Distribution Testbed for Advanced Charging Infrastructure and Energy Management

This paper presents the development of a hardware testbed for DC-distributed high-power charging (HPC) stations. As DC distributed solutions emerge as a viable solution to optimize HPC site operations, challenges such as interoperability, protection, and seamless integration of distributed energy resources (DER) persist. These issues underscore the need for a robust testing facility to investigate compliance of available commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) market devices. The developed testbed features a DC-distributed charging hub including a charger, emulated energy storage system (ESS), and site level communication and controller implementation. It facilitates the testing of COTS hardware, charger prototypes, standards validation and site energy management system (SEMS) controllers at rated power. This paper details the development of the charging infrastructure platform, implementation of communication system, validation of different SEMS algorithms, and understanding improvements required for future expansion. Using the developed testbed, interoperability gaps for SEMS implementation with multi-vehicle concurrent charging via a multi-port charger are experimentally observed. Aimed at supporting the transition to large-scale EV charging infrastructure deployment and DER integration, this testbed plays a crucial role in conformity testing of COTS device interoperability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Report for 2.2.1 Task 5: Develop and Document a State-Based Alarm System for a Nuclear Power Plant Control Room Using Machine Learning

Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has contracted IFE to support human factors research and the development of leading-edge technology to support control room operators as the U.S. fleet undergoes modernization and digitalization in legacy plants and control rooms. As the nuclear industry starts to shift to more digital controls and systems, these upgrades provide more information to the main control room in the form of digital signals and values. Also, an increase in the number of alarms points is provided by the vendors. New digital control rooms shift from main control boards to soft controls, and alarm panels to a single display. This change to a single display has created a problem of alarm waterfall, a situation in which the addition of new alarm points causes an overload of information to the operator during either a plant disturbance or other than normal full power operations. IFE’s goal is to find a workable solution to assist operators in both handling and understanding incoming alarms during emergency situations under these waterfall conditions.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Los Alamos Climatology 2021 Update

The Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL or the Laboratory) operates a Meteorological Monitoring (Met) Program to support LANL emergency response, engineering designs, environmental compliance, environmental assessments, safety evaluations, weather forecasting, environmental monitoring, research programs, and environmental restoration. Weather data has been collected in Los Alamos since 1910. A 30-year averaging period is termed by the National Weather Service (NWS) as a climatic normal, and these statistics are updated every 10 years to represent the current climatic normal conditions. Previous climate statistics are provided in Bowen (1990) for the 1961–1990 averaging period and Dewart et al. (2017) for the 1981–2010 averaging period. No climate statistics were developed for the 1971-2000 averaging period. This report provides climate statistics for the current 30-year 1991–2020 averaging period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Building Performance Standards and Energy Code Alignment: Technical Brief

Building energy codes focus on building design, construction and renovation and have significantly increased building efficiency since the first national energy code was published in 1975. Most jurisdictions have energy codes based on ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1 (hereto referred to as Standard 90.1) and the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). Compliance options available in these model energy codes include a prescriptive path, whole building performance paths – including IECC Total Building Performance (TBP), Standard 90.1 Energy Cost Budget (ECB) method and Performance Rating Method (PRM) – and system performance paths for envelope and heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems. Building performance standard (BPS) policies are an emerging policy tool used by jurisdictions to reduce the operational energy use or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the existing commercial building stock. BPS policies vary widely between jurisdictions and are tailored to each location’s climate and energy goals. Intuitively, projects that met a recent edition of the energy code should comply with the BPS targets.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Risk Assessment Considerations for Underground Hydrogen Storage in Depleted Gas Reservoirs

Underground hydrogen storage (UHS) in depleted reservoirs presents a promising solution for large-scale energy storage as hydrogen demand grows. As the UHS industry emerges, robust risk assessments are critical to ensuring safe operation of the storage facilities and minimizing the risk of accidents. This work explores risk assessment protocols for underground natural gas storage (UGS) in depleted reservoirs and identifies key considerations for repurposing these facilities for UHS. By examining the differences in physical and chemical properties between hydrogen and natural gas, this work highlights new and modified hazards that merits a reevaluation of traditional natural gas risk assessment practices. This investigation synthesizes insights from previous literature reviews and interviews with UGS industry experts and operators to identify key areas for adapting risk assessment methodologies for hydrogen. The insights gleaned from expert interviews indicate that existing risk assessment standards are non-prescriptive, leading to diverse company-specific risk assessment methodologies requiring substantial additions to become practical. Due to a lack of concrete risk assessment requirements, experience, and relevant data, this uncertainty is expected to be magnified considerably when considering hydrogen. This study identifies several areas for potential modification of existing risk assessment practices that could be considered by those developing standards or performing risk assessments for UHS. Specifically, risk assessments may be improved by including risks unique to hydrogen in existing standards, changing the magnitude of different risk factors in existing risk assessment protocols, and improving methods of data collection and communication across the industry to address large areas of uncertainty.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Building Performance Standards and Energy Code Alignment - Technical Brief

Building energy codes focus on building design, construction and renovation and have significantly increased building efficiency since the first national energy code was published in 1975. Most jurisdictions have energy codes based on ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1 (hereto referred to as Standard 90.1) and the International Energy Conservation Code (IECC). Compliance options available in these model energy codes include a prescriptive path, whole building performance paths – including IECC Total Building Performance (TBP), Standard 90.1 Energy Cost Budget (ECB) method and Performance Rating Method (PRM) – and system performance paths for envelope and heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems. Building performance standard (BPS) policies are an emerging policy tool used by jurisdictions to reduce the operational energy use or greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the existing commercial building stock. BPS policies vary widely between jurisdictions and are tailored to each location’s climate and energy goals. Intuitively, projects that met a recent edition of the energy code should comply with the BPS targets. However, some new buildings may struggle with meeting the BPS for the following reasons: 1. Energy codes focus on the design of the building and its projected ability to perform efficiently, while BPS compliance is dependent on the actual ongoing performance of the building, considering variables like occupancy, operation, and maintenance. 2. There are significant differences in the methodologies used to determine BPS compliance versus code compliance, including how each handles compliance metrics, handling of building amenities, and renewable energy generation. 3. The prescriptive compliance path in the energy code is based on performance of individual building components, as opposed to the performance compliance path which accounts for holistic building design strategies and interdependent building systems. This can result in a significant variability in post-occupancy performance for buildings built using the prescriptive path. Designs on the lower end of the permitted efficiency range may struggle with meeting the BPS.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Concise Guide on Hydrogen for Ports

This Concise Guide on Hydrogen for Ports provides port stakeholders with a comprehensive overview of hydrogen as an emerging energy solution for maritime and land-based operations. It explains hydrogen’s fundamental properties, production pathways, and emissions profiles, while highlighting its potential benefits and associated challenges. The document explores practical applications for hydrogen at ports alongside considerations for storage, delivery, and integration. It also outlines implementation frameworks, stakeholder engagement approaches, and risk assessment methodologies to support informed decision-making. The guide aims to provide a pathway forward for ports that choose to consider implementation of hydrogen technology at their facility.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Satellite communication and navigation for mobile users

Efforts made to utilize space technology for solving communication and navigation problems faced by mobile users in earth orientated situations are outlined. Applications include transoceanic airline communications, reliable long range ship-shore communications, emergency communications in regions with rough terrain, and military operations.

Bernstein, S. L.↗

The prologue - A look at Apollo and Apollo/Soyuz

The importance of man to the success of the Apollo missions is considered, giving attention to man's capabilities to provide rapid response to emergencies, the ability to carry out self-contained operations in the absence of communication with the ground, and the ability for rapid sensing, reaction, and vehicle control. In the upcoming Shuttle era the capabilities possessed by man are to be further utilized. The concern for the safety of men in space is one of the major reasons for the flight of the Apollo/Soyuz test project. Details regarding this project are discussed, taking into account the mission profile, hardware, program organization, mission communication modes, tracking, the participating astronauts and cosmonauts, and scientific studies.

Lee, C. M.↗

Traction studies of northeast corridor rail passenger service: Executive summary

The enabling legislation of 1976 for improvement of service in the Northeast corridor (NEC) requires a schedule of 2 h 40 min between Washington and New York City by 1981 and 3 h 40 min between NYC and Boston, when the electrification is completed. Various options of the NEC operation that may satisfy the legislation were investigated, particularly in terms of travel time and energy consumption. NEC operations were compared with overseas systems and practices. The emerging new technology of AC traction was also evaluated.

Macie, T. W.↗

Space manufacturing 1983; Proceedings of the Sixth Conference, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, May 9-12, 1983

General topics are biomedical and social sciences, space stations and habitats, space manufacturing, international and legal considerations, materials resources and processing, accelerators and asteroids, and space economics. Among the papers presented, consideration is given to the evolution of man as an explorer; whether people, robots, or hybrids should operate a space station; electrophoresis experiments in space; the emerging government regulation of American space entrepeneurs; the extraction and purification of iron-group and precious metals from asteroidal feedstocks; the construction, testing, and design comparison to computer simulation fo the Mass-Driver III; and the international competition in commercial aerospace markets.

Burke, J. D.↗

Real-time simulator for helicopter rotor wind-tunnel operations

This paper describes the elements and operation of a simulator that is being used to train operators of the Rotor Test Apparatus (RTA) in the large-scale 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel at Ames Research Center. The simulator, named TUTOR (for Tunnel Utilization Trainer with Operating Rotor) duplicates the controls of the rotor and its dynamic behavior, as well as the wind-tunnel controls. The simulation software uses a preexisting blade-element model of a four-bladed rotor with flapping and lead-lag degrees of freedom. Equations were developed for all hardware and controls of the RTA and of the wind tunnel that are normally required to perform a wind-tunnel test of a helicopter rotor. The simulator hardware consists of consoles designed to have the same appearance and functions as those in the control room of the 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel, allowing input from three operators who normally establish the required operating conditions during a test run. Normal operating procedures can be practiced, as well as simulated emergencies such as rotor power failure.

Talbot, P. D.↗

Project EGRESS: Earthbound Guaranteed Reentry from Space Station. the Design of an Assured Crew Recovery Vehicle for the Space Station

Unlike previously designed space-based working environments, the shuttle orbiter servicing the space station will not remain docked the entire time the station is occupied. While an Apollo capsule was permanently available on Skylab, plans for Space Station Freedom call for a shuttle orbiter to be docked at the space station for no more than two weeks four times each year. Consideration of crew safety inspired the design of an Assured Crew Recovery Vehicle (ACRV). A conceptual design of an ACRV was developed. The system allows the escape of one or more crew members from Space Station Freedom in case of emergency. The design of the vehicle addresses propulsion, orbital operations, reentry, landing and recovery, power and communication, and life support. In light of recent modifications in space station design, Project EGRESS (Earthbound Guaranteed ReEntry from Space Station) pays particular attention to its impact on space station operations, interfaces and docking facilities, and maintenance needs. A water-landing medium-lift vehicle was found to best satisfy project goals of simplicity and cost efficiency without sacrificing safety and reliability requirements. One or more seriously injured crew members could be returned to an earth-based health facility with minimal pilot involvement. Since the craft is capable of returning up to five crew members, two such permanently docked vehicles would allow a full evacuation of the space station. The craft could be constructed entirely with available 1990 technology, and launched aboard a shuttle orbiter.

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