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NASA NTRS2001

Cloud Macro- and Microphysical Properties Derived from GOES over the ARM SGP Domain

Cloud macrophysical properties like fractional coverage and height Z(sub c) and microphysical parameters such as cloud liquid water path (LWP), effective droplet radius r(sub e), and cloud phase, are key factors affecting both the radiation budget and the hydrological cycle. Satellite data have been used to complement surface observations from Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) by providing additional spatial coverage and top-of-atmosphere boundary conditions of these key parameters. Since 1994, the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) has been used for deriving at each half-hour over the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) domain: cloud amounts, altitudes, temperatures, and optical depths as well as broadband shortwave (SW) albedo and outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere. A new operational algorithm has been implemented to increase the number of value-added products to include cloud particle phase and effective size (r(sub e) or effective ice diameter D(sub e)) as well as LWP and ice water path. Similar analyses have been performed on the data from the Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite as part of the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System project. This larger suite of cloud properties will enhance our knowledge of cloud processes and further constrain the mesoscale and single column models using ARM data as a validation/initialization resource. This paper presents the results of applying this new algorithm to GOES-8 data taken during 1998 and 2000. The global VIRS results are compared to the GOES SGP results to provide appropriate context and to test consistency.

Minnis, P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Coupling of Dust Mineralogy to Radiation in NASA GISS ModelE: Impact Upon Dust Optical Properties and Direct Radiative Effect

Estimates of dust direct radiative effect (DRE) are still largely uncertain mainly due to the poor constraining of regional variations of dust absorption, whose known connection with mineral composition is still largely neglected by most Earth System Models. The inaccurate knowledge of soil mineralogy and insufficient measurements of dust physical and optical properties still present the main challenges for a proper representation of the dust-radiation interaction in climate models. We recently upgraded the coupling of dust minerals to shortwave radiation in the NASA GISS ModelE. In particular, we extended the interaction to online-calculated minerals and implemented two different mixing configurations: i) external mixing of three main mineral components and ii) internal mixing of all minerals, allowing a dynamic fraction of iron oxides. We used a semi-empirical approach for the optical calculations, mostly based on aerosol chamber measurements from natural soils, aiming to reduce the influence of uncertain assumptions on the optical properties and mixing state of individual minerals. In this contribution, we present the results of our first calculations of dust optical properties and DREs based on different mixing configurations of interactive minerals. We show the changes to dust optical depth and single scattering albedo, with respect to the control case using homogeneous dust composition, and the consequent global and regional variations in dust DREs at the top of atmosphere and at surface. We also compare the model optical properties with AERONET data, filtered to identify dust scenes. We find that accounting for the diverse properties of dust minerals modifies the pattern of regional dust absorption and therefore its impact upon climate. We also show that the mineralogy effect is sensitive to the assumed mixing state of minerals.

dust direct radiative effect↗
NASA NTRS2006

Comets, Asteroids, Meteorites, and the Origin of the Biosphere

During the past few decades, the delivery of water, organics, and prebiotic chemicals to the Biosphere of Earth during the Hadean (4.5-3.8 Ga) period of heavy bombardment by comets and asteroids has become more widely accepted. Comets are still largely regarded as frigid, pristine bodies of protosolar nebula material that are devoid of liquid water and therefore unsuitable for life. Complex organic compounds have been observed in comets and on the water-rich asteroid 1998 KY26 and near IR observations have indicated the presence of crystalline water ice and ammonia hydrate on the large Kuiper Belt object (50000) Quaoar that has resurfacing suggesting cryovolcanic outgassing. Spacecraft observations of the chemical compositions and characteristics of the nuclei of several comets (Halley, Borrelly, Wild 2, and Tempel 1) have shown that comets contain complex organic chemicals; that water is the predominant volatile; and that extremely high temperatures (approx. 350-400 K) can be reached on the surfae of the very black (albedo approx. 0.03) nuclei of comets when they approach the Sun. Impact craters and pinnacles observed on comet Wild 2 suggest a thick crust. Episodic outbursts and jets from the nuclei of several comets indicate that localized regimes of liquid water and water vapor can periodically exist beneath the comet crust. The Deep Impact mission found the temperature of the nucleus of comet Tempel 1 at 1.5 AU varied from a minimum of 280 plus or minus 8 K the 330K (57 C) on the sunlit side. In this paper it is argued that that pools and films of liquid water exist (within a wide range of temperatures) in cavities and voids just beneath the hot, black crust. The possibility of liquid water existing over a wide range of temperatures significantly enhances the possibility that comets might contain niches suitable for the growth of microbial communities and ecosystems. These regimes would be ideal for the growth of psychrophilic, mesophilic, and thermophilic photoautotrophs and chemolithotrophs such as the motile filamentous cyanobacteria (e.g., Calothrix, Oscillatoria, Phormidium, and Spirulina) that grow in geothermal springs and geysers of Earth at temperatures ranging fiom 320K to 345K and are also found growing in cold polar desert soils. The mineralized remains of morphotypes of all of these cyanobacteria have also been found in the Orgueil CI1 and the Murchison CN2 carbonaceous meteorites that may derive from cometary parent bodies. Observational results that support the hypothesis that liquid water can in active regions just beneath the surface of comets and that comets, carbonaceous meteorites, and asteroids may have played a significant role in the origin and evolution of the Biosphere and in the distribution of microbial life throughout the Solar System.

Hoover, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Titania's opposition effect - Analysis of Voyager observations

Voyager 2 obtained images of Titania over phase angles ranging from 0.8 to 150 deg and at sufficient resolution to investigate the photometric behavior of different surface units. The large, relatively narrow opposition surge detected from earth was confirmed and can be successfully modeled with Hapke's (1986) photometric theory. Opposition effects do not vary greatly between bright areas (craters and ejecta) and dark areas, but the brightness of the brighter areas decreases more slowly with increasing phase angle than that of the dark areas. Thus the fresher craters and their ejecta become less prominent in relation to the background as opposition is approached. This effect is best explained by a modest difference in single-scattering albedo.

Thomas, P. C.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Smoke, Clouds, and Radiation-Brazil (SCAR-B) Experiment

The Smoke, Clouds, and Radiation-Brazil (SCAR-B) field project took place in the Brazilian Amazon and cerrado regions in August-September 1995 as a collaboration between Brazilian and American scientists. SCAR-B, a comprehensive experiment to study biomass burning, emphasized measurements of surface biomass, fires, smoke aerosol and trace gases, clouds, and radiation. their climatic effects, and remote sensing from aircraft and satellites. It included aircraft and ground-based in situ measurements of smoke emission factors and the compositions, sizes, and optical properties of the smoke particles; studies of the formation of ozone; the transport and evolution of smoke; and smoke interactions with water vapor and clouds. This overview paper introduces SCAR-B and summarizes some of the main results obtained so far. (1) Fires: measurements of the size distribution of fires, using the 50 m resolution MODIS Airborne Simulator, show that most of the fires are small (e.g. 0.005 square km), but the satellite sensors (e.g., AVHRR and MODIS with I km resolution) can detect fires in Brazil which are responsible for 60-85% of the burned biomass: (2) Aerosol: smoke particles emitted from fires increase their radius by as much as 60%, during their first three days in the atmosphere due to condensation and coagulation, reaching a mass median radius of 0.13-0.17 microns: (3) Radiative forcing: estimates of the globally averaged direct radiative forcing due to smoke worldwide, based on the properties of smoke measured in SCAR-B (-O.l to -0.3 W m(exp -2)), are smaller than previously modeled due to a lower single-scattering albedo (0.8 to 0.9), smaller scattering efficiency (3 square meters g(exp -2) at 550 nm), and low humidification factor; and (4) Effect on clouds: a good relationship was found between cloud condensation nuclei and smoke volume concentrations, thus an increase in the smoke emission is expected to affect cloud properties. In SCAR-B, new techniques were developed for deriving the absorption and refractive index of smoke from ground-based remote sensing. Future spaceborne radiometers (e.g., MODIS on the Earth Observing System), simulated on aircraft, proved to be very useful for monitoring smoke properties, surface properties, and the impacts of smoke on radiation and climate.

Kaufman, Y. J.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Applications of NASA’s LANCE Earth Observations for Ecosystem Assessments

As one of NASA's open and free data systems, NASA's Land, Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE) provides a wide range of near real-time, low latency and expedited data products from NASA and other earth science satellite missions to support users in their understanding of the value and distribution of ecosystem services. LANCE data can support the System of Environmental Economic Accounting-Ecosystem Accounting (SEEA-EA) framework by both facilitating the creation of ecosystem spatial extent and condition accounts, as well as the quantification and mapping of ecosystem services, much more quickly than routine data processing allows. During the past 13 years, LANCE near real-time satellite data products (e.g., surface reflectance, albedo, vegetation height, thermal anomalies, soil moisture, snow cover etc.) have been used to produce ecosystem-related indicators such as vegetation indexes, biomass, land cover maps, fire, and flood products. These ecosystem-related indicators can be integrated into ecosystem services models, tools, and platforms to monitor land cover and land use changes in ecosystem composition in support of land and natural resource management. When using ecosystem services accounts in decision-making, low latency is essential because having up-to-date information can be critical to support decisions being made. With adequate spatial resolution, long time series length, and low latency data products, LANCE would promote the sustainable use of land and natural resources.

Tian Yao↗
NASA NTRS1986

Planning for the utilization of the PCDS in studying the interaction of clouds (ISCCP-C data) and the Earth radiation budget (ERBE data)

The Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS) affords an opportunity to analyze data from different but highly complementary data sets. Two of these highly complementary data sets supported by the PCDS are the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). Both data set sponsors are aware of the utility of one data set to the other, and both projects utilize gridded data on a 2.5 deg by 2.5 deg grid. The ISCCP data have been collected since July 1983, and the NOAA-9 data for ERBE have been collected for more than a year. Therefore, there is a good chance to use these temporally overlapping data sets to investigate hypothesized relationships. Changes in cloudiness affect both cloud albedo feedback (shortwave) and the greenhouse effect (longwave). The relative importance of the effects of clouds on albedo versus outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in determining the radiation balance has long been a matter of controversy. Now, however, changes in cloud amount as observed by the ISCCPO can be correlated to corresponding changes in the albedo and changes in the OLR from ERBE. Monthly means can be utilized in all instances.

Jacobowitz, H.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Use of midlatitude soil moisture and meteorological observations to validate soil moisture simulations with biosphere and bucket models

Soil moisture observations in sites with natural vegetation were made for several decades in the former Soviet Union at hundreds of stations. In this paper, the authors use data from six of these stations from different climatic regimes, along with ancillary meteorological and actinometric data, to demonstrate a method to validate soil moisture simulations with biosphere and bucket models. Some early and current general circulation models (GCMs) use bucket models for soil hydrology calculations. More recently, the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB) was developed to incorporate the effects of vegetation on fluxes of moisture, momentum, and energy at the earth's surface into soil hydrology models. Until now, the bucket and SiB have been verified by comparison with actual soil moisture data only on a limited basis. In this study, a Simplified SiB (SSiB) soil hydrology model and a 15-cm bucket model are forced by observed meteorological and actinometric data every 3 h for 6-yr simulations at the six stations. The model calculations of soil moisture are compared to observations of soil moisture, literally 'ground truth,' snow cover, surface albedo, and net radiation, and with each other. For three of the stations, the SSiB and 15-cm bucket models produce good simulations of seasonal cycles and interannual variations of soil moisture. For the other three stations, there are large errors in the simulations by both models. Inconsistencies in specification of field capacity may be partly responsible. There is no evidence that the SSiB simulations are superior in simulating soil moisture variations. In fact, the models are quite similar since SSiB implicitly has a bucket embedded in it. One of the main differences between the models is in the treatment of runoff due to melting snow in the spring -- SSiB incorrectly puts all the snowmelt into runoff. While producing similar soil moisture simulations, the models produce very different surface latent and sensible heat fluxes, which would have large effects on GCM simulations.

Robock, Alan↗
NASA NTRS1991

Analysis of images obtained by the Phobos 2 spacecraft

The reflection spectrum and density of the Martian satellite, Phobos, suggests that it may be a captured C-type asteroid and hence may contain relatively unaltered organic material from the early history of the solar system. Since there is evidence from isotopic anomalies that meteorites presumably derived from such asteroids contain preserved interstellar material, it is conceivable that evidence for interstellar matter might also be present on Phobos. The present research concerns interpretation of the chemical composition of Phobos' surface and analysis of images of Phobos taken by the FREGAT camera equipment aboard the Phobos 2 Spacecraft, including both disk-integrated and disk-resolved photometry. Because the surface of Phobos is a regolith, spectral information on the surface composition will be convolved with information on the surface texture. A primary goal was to untangle these effects. Unfortunately, the Phobos 1 Spacecraft lost contact with Earth during its transit to Mars, and Phobos 2 likewise lost contact after two months in orbit around Mars. Thus, the hovering phase of very close approach and the landing of instruments on the surface of Phobos did not take place, so no data on the elemental composition of the surface is available. However, 37 images were obtained of the satellite. The results include the first such observations at near infrared wavelengths, for which disk-integrated results show that the corresponding geometric albedo is quite small and very similar to the value in the blue. The resolved surface photometry was analyzed by developing new methods of radiative transfer in rough surface layers and a procedure referred to as statistical photoclinometry. The results provide root mean square surface slopes on scales from the order of 1 millimeter to 250 meters, albedo fluctuations, and corresponding correlation lengths.

Irvine, W. M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Carl Sagan and the Exploration of Mars and Venus

Inspired by childhood readings of books by Edgar Rice Burroughs, Carl Sagan's first interest in planetary science focused on Mars and Venus. Typical of much of his career he was skeptical of early views about these planets. Early in this century it was thought that the Martian wave of darkening, a seasonal albedo change on the planet, was biological in origin. He suggested instead that it was due to massive dust storms, as was later shown to be the case. He was the first to recognize that Mars has huge topography gradients across its surface. During the spacecraft era, as ancient river valleys were found on the planet, he directed studies of Mars' ancient climate. He suggested that changes in the planets orbit were involved in climate shifts on Mars, just as they are on Earth. Carl had an early interest in Venus. Contradictory observations led to a controversy about the surface temperature, and Carl was one of the first to recognize that Venus has a massive greenhouse effect at work warming its surface. His work on radiative transfer led to an algorithm that was extensively used by modelers of the Earth's climate and whose derivatives still dominate the calculation of radiative transfer in planetary atmospheres today. Carl inspired a vast number of young scientists through his enthusiasm for new ideas and discoveries, his skeptical approach, and his boundless energy. I had the privilege to work in Carl's laboratory during the peak of the era of Mars' initial exploration. It was an exciting time, and place. Carl made it a wonderful experience.

Toon, Owen B.↗
NASA NTRS2021

San Diego Urban Development: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Identify Drivers of Extreme Urban Heat and Generate a High-Resolution Vulnerability Index for Urban Planning and Climate Resiliency in San Diego, California

Exposure to heat exacerbated by an increase in urbanization as well as increasing global temperatures has become a growing concern for cities and their residents. Excess heat can cause increased heat-related morbidity, mortality, and energy costs. Vulnerability to heat-related illnesses is oftentimes correlated to demographics, socioeconomic status, and pre-existing health conditions. The City of San Diego, California boasts 1.4 million residents and, like many other major cities, has experienced increases in heat-related hospitalizations and mortality. The burden of urban heat is also not equal amongst communities; areas with lower income and communities of color bear a disproportionate burden. In partnership with the City of San Diego, and American Geophysical Union’s (AGU) Thriving Earth Exchange, the DEVELOP team used Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) and Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS), and ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) imagery to identify areas of highest heat based on land surface temperature from 2015-2020. Our analyses showed that health demographics such as obesity and cardiovascular health were the strongest indicators for heat vulnerability. In addition, various inputs (land use/land cover, tree canopy, and building intensity derived from the City of San Diego data along with albedo from Landsat 8) were used in the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) urban cooling model to investigate changes in cooling rates in current and future scenarios for the city. The model results showed that cooling is expected to occur due to a 5% increase in tree canopy. The City of San Diego can use these results to inform the development of the Climate Resilient San Diego plan and prioritize at-risk communities for cooling interventions.

John Dialesandro↗
NASA NTRS2026

Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea-Ice Properties and Processes

Although sea ice covers ~9% of the world’s oceans, its presence, and absence, vastly alter the energetic balance of Earth’s climate. Because of geographic differences, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice have different dominant properties and processes, which produce different responses to natural variability and anthropogenic change. In this Review, we survey changes in sea-ice properties and processes of the Arctic and Antarctic environments. In the Arctic, the melt season has lengthened by ~7.4 days decade −1 (1979-2024). There has been a corresponding decrease in winter sea-ice thickness (1.6 m mean total over 1980-2023), summer surface albedo (0.03 decade −1 over 1979-2020), and spring snow depth (2.5 cm decade −1 over 1954-2024). In comparison, corresponding changes in the Antarctic are small overall due to contrasting regional and temporal trends. From a dynamic perspective, sea-ice motion in both hemispheres has increased, with 0.63 cm s −1 decade −1 in the Arctic (1978-2024) and 0.69 cm s −1 decade −1 in the Antarctic (1982-2024), whereas trends in polynya occurrence differ by region. Future research should prioritize sea-ice observations that can inform how the climate system responds to natural variability and anthropogenic change, be standardized to increase uptake by the broader scientific community, and target process-oriented interactions to support model development.

Melinda A Webster↗
NASA NTRS1973

Calculations of neutron flux spectra induced in the earth's atmosphere by galactic cosmic rays.

Calculations have been carried out to determine the neutron flux induced in the earth's atmosphere by galactic protons and alpha particles at solar minimum for a geomagnetic latitude of 42 N. Neutron flux spectra in the energy range from about 10 to the minus 8th to about 100,000 MeV at various depths in the atmosphere were calculated by using Monte Carlo and discrete ordinates methods, and various comparisons with experimental data are presented. The magnitude and shape of the calculated neutron leakage spectrum at the particular latitude considered support the theory that the cosmic ray albedo neutron decay (Crand) mechanism is the source of the protons trapped in the inner radiation belt.

Armstrong, T. W.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Orbital measurements of the Earth's radiation budget during the first decade of the space program

The instrumentation and data analysis methods applied to data from the Explorer 7, TIROS 2, 3, 4, and 7, and Nimbus 2 and 3 experimental satellites are summarized. Problems encountered in analyzing these data included: determining the value of the solar constant, inaccuracies introduced by degradation of the sensors in orbit, the need to infer the total reflected and emitted radiation from filtered measurements, the development of corrections for anisotropy in order to determine the outgoing flux densities at the moment of measurement, and the development of corrections to account for diurnal variability. The corrections for long- and shortwave anisotropy and historical determinations of the solar constant and albedo are treated in detail. These early measurements indicated that the planetary albedo was lower, the emitted radiation higher, and the equator-to-pole gradient of net radiation greater than previously supposed.

Bandeen, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Studies of asteroids and comets

About 3000 accurate positions of asteroids and comets were measured concentrating particularly on close-Earth approachers, but also targeting asteroids in need for follow-up observations because of unusual orbital characteristics or poor observational history. In 1985, 36 of the discoveries were numbered. Very accurate + or - 0.1 arcsec?) positional measurements were made of P/Halley on four nights in November and December 1985 in support of Giotto mission navigation. The asteroid orbit files were maintained, and ephemeris data for observational planning were supplied to colleagues worldwide. Considerable progress was made in understanding how information on asteroid shapes, surface albedo variegation, and rotational states can be derived from lightcurve and phase curve data. The analytical formulation was completed of a new asteroid magnitude system for the International Astronomical Union; the system was adopted at the New Delhi General Assembly by IAU Commission 20. Photographic photometry of about 10000 images of faint asteroids observed during the course of the United Kingdom Schmidt-CalTech Asteroid Survey in 1981 was continued, completing the microdensitometric scanning and all process of software development for data handling.

Bowell, E. L. G.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Satellite bioclimatology

Satellite-acquired, remotely sensed observations of the earth's land areas are substantially advancing knowledge of global vegetation patterns. Recognition that combined visible/near infrared spectral reflectance observations are a general indicator of the presence, condition and magnitude of vegetation foliage provides a basis for explanation. This information is of considerable value in climatic research because of the links between climate variables and vegetation foliage. Presence of vegetation foliage is predominantly determinated by a combination of local heat and moisture conditions. In turn, foliar presence determines local rates of photosynthesis, affects surface albedo, and influences local rates of evapotranspiration as well as other elements of surface energy/mass balance. Availability of these remotely sensed data provides, for the first time, a consistent, global means to directly study interactions between climate and vegetation. This understanding is now being incorporated in climatological research and should improve understanding of macroscale bioclimatology. Remote sensing technology and understanding of this technology are continuing to develop rapidly and further major advances in this new field of'satellite bioclimatology' can be expected in the near future.

Goward, Samuel N.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Generating a Long-Term Land Data Record from the AVHRR and MODIS Instruments

The goal of NASA's Land Long Term Iiata Record (LTDR) project is to produce a consistent long term data set from the AVHRR and MODIS instruments for land climate studies. The project will create daily surface reflectance and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) products at a resolution of 0.05 deg., which is identical to the Climate Modeling Grid (CMG) used for MODIS products from EOS Terra and Aqua. Higher order products such as burned area, land surface temperature, albedo, bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) correction, leaf area index (LAI), and fraction of photosyntheticalIy active radiation absorbed by vegetation (fPAR), will be created. The LTDR project will reprocess Global Area Coverage (GAC) data from AVHRR sensors onboard NOAA satellites by applying the preprocessing improvements identified in the AVHRR Pathfinder Il project and atmospheric and BRDF corrections used in MODIS processing. The preprocessing improvements include radiometric in-flight vicarious calibration for the visible and near infrared channels and inverse navigation to relate an Earth location to each sensor instantaneous field of view (IFOV). Atmospheric corrections for Rayleigh scattering, ozone, and water vapor are undertaken, with aerosol correction being implemented. The LTDR also produces a surface reflectance product for channel 3 (3.75 micrometers). Quality assessment (QA) is an integral part of the LTDR production system, which is monitoring temporal trands in the AVHRR products using time-series approaches developed for MODIS land product quality assessment. The land surface reflectance products have been evaluated at AERONET sites. The AVHRR data record from LTDR is also being compared to products from the PAL (Pathfinder AVHRR Land) and GIMMS (Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies) systems to assess the relative merits of this reprocessing vis-a-vis these existing data products. The LTDR products and associated information can be found at http://ltdr.nascom.nasa.gov/ltdr/ltdr.html.

Pedelty, Jeffrey↗
NASA NTRS2013

Uncertainty Quantification of GEOS-5 L-band Radiative Transfer Model Parameters Using Bayesian Inference and SMOS Observations

Uncertainties in L-band (1.4 GHz) radiative transfer modeling (RTM) affect the simulation of brightness temperatures (Tb) over land and the inversion of satellite-observed Tb into soil moisture retrievals. In particular, accurate estimates of the microwave soil roughness, vegetation opacity and scattering albedo for large-scale applications are difficult to obtain from field studies and often lack an uncertainty estimate. Here, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method is used to determine satellite-scale estimates of RTM parameters and their posterior uncertainty by minimizing the misfit between long-term averages and standard deviations of simulated and observed Tb at a range of incidence angles, at horizontal and vertical polarization, and for morning and evening overpasses. Tb simulations are generated with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) and confronted with Tb observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. The MCMC algorithm suggests that the relative uncertainty of the RTM parameter estimates is typically less than 25 of the maximum a posteriori density (MAP) parameter value. Furthermore, the actual root-mean-square-differences in long-term Tb averages and standard deviations are found consistent with the respective estimated total simulation and observation error standard deviations of m3.1K and s2.4K. It is also shown that the MAP parameter values estimated through MCMC simulation are in close agreement with those obtained with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO).

MCMC↗