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At least 811 records · Page 45

Possible Evidence for an Event Horizon in Cyg XR-1

The X-ray emitting component in the Cyg XR-1/HDE226868 system is a leading candidate for identification as a stellar-mass sized black hole. The positive identification of a black hole as predicted by general relativity requires the detection of an event horizon surrounding the point singularity. One signature of such an event horizon would be the existence of dying pulse trains emitted by material spiraling into the event horizon from the last stable orbit around the black hole. We observed the Cyg XR-1 system at three different epochs in a 1400 - 3000 A bandpass with 0.1 ms time resolution using the Hubble Space Telescope's High Speed Photometer. Repeated excursions of the detected flux by more than three standard deviations above the mean are present in the UV flux with FWHM 1 - 10 ms. If any of these excursions are pulses of radiation produced in the system (and not just stochastic variability associated with the Poisson distribution of detected photon arrival times), then this short a timescale requires that the pulses originate in the accretion disk around Cyg XR-1. Two series of pulses with characteristics similar to those expected from dying pulse trains were detected in three hours of observation.

Dolan, Joseph F.↗

Second Generation RLV Space Vehicle Concept

NASA has a long history of conducting development programs and projects in a consistent fashion. Systems Engineering within those programs and projects has also followed a given method outlined by such documents as the NASA Systems Engineering Handbook. The relatively new NASA Space Launch Initiative (SLI) is taking a new approach to developing a space vehicle, with innovative management methods as well as new Systems Engineering processes. With the program less than a year into its life cycle, the efficacy of these new processes has yet to be proven or disproven. At $776M for phase 1, SLI represents a major portion of the NASA focus; however, the new processes being incorporated are not reflected in the training provided by NASA to its engineers. The NASA Academy of Program and Project Leadership (APPL) offers core classes in program and project management and systems engineering to NASA employees with the purpose of creating a "knowledge community where ideas, skills, and experiences are exchanged to increase each other's capacity for strong leadership". The SLI program is, in one sense, a combination of a conceptual design program and a technology program. The program as a whole doesn't map into the generic systems engineering project cycle as currently, and for some time, taught. For example, the NASA APPL Systems Engineering training course teaches that the "first step in developing an architecture is to define the external boundaries of the system", which will require definition of the interfaces with other systems and the next step will be to "define all the components that make up the next lower level of the system hierarchy" where fundamental requirements are allocated to each component. Whereas, the SLI technology risk reduction approach develops architecture subsystem technologies prior to developing architectures. The higher level architecture requirements are not allowed to fully develop and undergo decomposition and allocation down to the subsystems before the subsystems must develop allocated requirements based on the highest level of requirements. In the vernacular of the project cycles prior to the mid 1990's, the architecture definition portion of the program appears to be at a generic Phase A stage, while the subsystems are operating at Phase B. Even the management structure of the SLI program is innovative in its approach to Systems Engineering and is not reflected in the APPL training modules. The SLI program has established a Systems Engineering office as an office separate from the architecture development or the subsystem technology development, while that office does have representatives within these other offices. The distributed resources of the Systems Engineering Office are co-located with the respective Project Offices. This template is intended to provide systems engineering as an integrated function at the Program Level. the program management of SLI and the MAT agree that "program/project managers and the systems engineering team must work closely together towards the single objective of delivering quality products that meet the customer needs". This paper will explore the differences between the methods being taught by NASA, which represent decades of ideas, and those currently in practice in SLI. Time will tell if the innovation employed by SLI will prove to be the model of the future. For now, it is suggested that the training of the present exercise the flexibility of recognizing the new processes employed by a major new NASA program.

Bailey, Michelle↗

SEL's Software Process-Improvement Program

The goals and operations of the Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) is reviewed. For nearly 20 years the SEL has worked to understand, assess, and improve software and the development process within the production environment of the Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. The SEL was established in 1976 with the goals of reducing: (1) the defect rate of delivered software, (2) the cost of software to support flight projects, and (3) the average time to produce mission-support software. After studying over 125 projects of FDD, the results have guided the standards, management practices, technologies, and the training within the division. The results of the studies have been a 75 percent reduction in defects, a 50 percent reduction in cost, and a 25 percent reduction in development time. Over time the goals of SEL have been clarified. The goals are now stated as: (1) Understand baseline processes and product characteristics, (2) Assess improvements that have been incorporated into the development projects, (3) Package and infuse improvements into the standard SEL process. The SEL improvement goal is to demonstrate continual improvement of the software process by carrying out analysis, measurement and feedback to projects with in the FDD environment. The SEL supports the understanding of the process by study of several processes including, the effort distribution, and error detection rates. The SEL assesses and refines the processes. Once the assessment and refinement of a process is completed, the SEL packages the process by capturing the process in standards, tools and training.

Basili, Victor↗

Continuous-time probabilistic models for longitudinal electronic health records

Analysis of longitudinal Electronic Health Record (EHR) data is an important goal for precision medicine. Difficulty in applying Machine Learning (ML) methods, either predictive or unsupervised, stems in part from the heterogeneity and irregular sampling of EHR data. Here, we present an unsupervised probabilistic model that captures nonlinear relationships between variables over continuous-time. This method works with arbitrary sampling patterns and captures the joint probability distribution between variable measurements and the time intervals between them. Inference algorithms are derived that can be used to evaluate the likelihood of future using under a trained model. As an example, we consider data from the United States Veterans Health Administration (VHA) in the areas of diabetes and depression. Likelihood ratio maps are produced showing the likelihood of risk for moderate-severe vs minimal depression as measured by the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Long-latency evoked potentials to irrelevant, deviant stimuli

Occasional shifts of loudness in a repetitive train of clicks elicited a late-positive wave (P3a) in nonattending subjects which peaked at a mean latency of 258 msec and had a frontocentral scalp distribution; P3a was typically preceded by an 'N2' component at 196 msec. The P3a wave was distinguishable from the longer-latency (378 msec) parietocentrally distributed 'P3b' wave that was evoked by the same stimulus in an actively attending subject, thus confirming the findings of Squires et al. (1975). Infrequently presented single sounds did not produce large or consistent N2-P3a components; the critical condition for the generation of an N2-P3a wave seemed to be that the infrequent sounds represent a deviation (intensity increment or decrement) from a repetitive background. Furthermore, increasing the repetition rate of the background clicks drastically reduced N1-P2 amplitude but had little effect on the amplitude of N2-P3a. This suggests that N2-P3a is not simply a delayed N1-P2 'vertex potential', but rather reflects the operation of a 'mismatch' detector, which registers deviations from an ongoing auditory background.

Snyder, E.↗

Measures and Interpretations of Vigilance Performance: Evidence Against the Detection Criterion

Operators' performance in a vigilance task is often assumed to depend on their choice of a detection criterion. When the signal rate is low this criterion is set high, causing the hit and false alarm rates to be low. With increasing time on task the criterion presumably tends to increase even further, thereby further decreasing the hit and false alarm rates. Virtually all of the empirical evidence for this simple interpretation is based on estimates of the bias measure Beta from signal detection theory. In this article, I describe a new approach to studying decision making that does not require the technical assumptions of signal detection theory. The results of this new analysis suggest that the detection criterion is never biased toward either response, even when the signal rate is low and the time on task is long. Two modifications of the signal detection theory framework are considered to account for this seemingly paradoxical result. The first assumes that the signal rate affects the relative sizes of the variances of the information distributions; the second assumes that the signal rate affects the logic of the operator's stopping rule. Actual or potential applications of this research include the improved training and performance assessment of operators in areas such as product quality control, air traffic control, and medical and clinical diagnosis.

Balakrishnan, J. D.↗

Applications of Intelligent Tutoring Systems to Human-Robotic Exploration of Mars

Space missions with small crews extending over several years with time-delay preventing normal conversations with people on earth will raise many challenges for training. Of special interest are possible three-year missions to Mars, requiring refresher instruction and learning new skills based on unexpected problems with machines and environmental conditions. For example, the crew will be required to monitor and repair more complex life support systems for air and water recycling than we even know how to build today. Highly educated astronauts, often with several doctorate degrees, require a very different mode of interaction than we have developed for school children or even typical college students. Explanation methods may need to differ-using analogies and techniques from different domains-depending on whether the astronaut is an astrophysicist, a pilot, or a geologist.Virtual reality (e.g., for Hubble repair missions) and "integrated" simulations (involving role-playing and emphasizing failure scenarios) are the most common advanced forms of instruction used in space flight today. The emphasis is on collaborative, embodied interaction with the same workstations and tools used in practice (e.g., a cockpit simulator). Otherwise, computerized instructional technology used by NASA is not model-based or tutorial in nature. This discussion will review some of the key instructional methods used at NASA over the past two decades and consider why ITS methods have not been exploited. Some of the problems and opportunities for training for Mars missions are examined, including how using robots in exploration activities will help but raise new training problems. These ideas will be illustrated with examples from the BrahmsVE system in which a browser- based virtual reality display with avatars allows interacting with a distributed multiagent system, in which agents can be people, robots, or software programs. Using BrahmsVE may provide a way for astronauts to interact with proxies of people who serve as instructional coaches on Mars.

Clancey, William J.↗

Shuttle Case Study Collection Website Development

As a continuation from summer 2012, the Shuttle Case Study Collection has been developed using lessons learned documented by NASA engineers, analysts, and contractors. Decades of information related to processing and launching the Space Shuttle is gathered into a single database to provide educators with an alternative means to teach real-world engineering processes. The goal is to provide additional engineering materials that enhance critical thinking, decision making, and problem solving skills. During this second phase of the project, the Shuttle Case Study Collection website was developed. Extensive HTML coding to link downloadable documents, videos, and images was required, as was training to learn NASA's Content Management System (CMS) for website design. As the final stage of the collection development, the website is designed to allow for distribution of information to the public as well as for case study report submissions from other educators online.

Ransom, Khadijah S.↗

Atmosphere Modeling and Performance Sensitivity for the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry System

The Capture, Containment, and Return System (CCRS) mission is a key element of the joint NASA-European Space Agency (ESA) planned Mars Sample Return (MSR) Campaign. The CCRS assembled Earth Entry System (EES) will enter the mission’s final segment in its Approach, Entry, Descent, and Landing (AEDL) Phase. The EES AEDL aims to deliver a highly reliable, safe, and accurate return while maintaining strict containment assurance targets established by the campaign. As currently designed, the EES would be the first fully passive sample return capsule with no parachute or onboard control system, prompting a significant effort in Earth atmosphere characterization and modeling. Earth’s atmosphere, specifically winds, have a strong influence on EES flight mechanics and landing footprint during its free fall landing. This paper describes Earth atmosphere modeling, atmosphere characterization, and performance sensitivities incorporated into the teams’s efforts to ensure AEDL success. By utilizing high resolution balloon radiosondes, analyzing wind structural and distributional compositions, and investigating flight mechanics sensitivities, the AEDL atmosphere team has been able to better understand and simulate local wind conditions at the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). Utilizing tools such as horizontal turbulent kinetic energy, vertical wind shear, or integrated wind, the team have been able to reveal valuable information about wind profiles in a deeper context than previously conducted, ultimately improving understanding of AEDL flight mechanics sensitivity and EES design.

Kaustubh Ray↗

Convolutional Neural Networks for the CHIPS Neutrino Detector R&D Project.

The CHerenkov detectors In mine PitS (Chips) neutrino detector R&D project aims to develop novel strategies and technologies for very large yet ‘cheap as chips’ water Cherenkov neutrino detectors. Via deployment in a body of water, use of commercially available components, and instrumentation coverage optimisation for the study of exclusively accelerator beam neutrinos, Chips will enable megaton scale detectors to become a reality at the cost of $200k-$300k per kt of sensitive mass. During the summer of 2019 a prototype Chips detector, Chips-5, was deployed into the Wentworth 2W disused mine pit in northern Minnesota, 7 mrad off the NuMI beam axis. A novel data acquisition system was introduced using cheap single-board computers and open-source software. This work presents a novel approach to water Cherenkov neutrino detector event reconstruction and classification. Three forms of a Convolutional Neural Network, a type of deep learning algorithm, have been trained to reject cosmic muon events, classify beam events, and estimate neutrino energies, all using only the raw detector event as input. When evaluated on the expected distribution of Chips-5 events, this new approach is shown to be robust and explainable as well as providing a significant performance increase over the standard likelihood-based reconstruction and simple neural network classification. Promisingly, the performance presented here is comparable to the more complex (and expensive) neutrino oscillation experiments within the field.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A Privacy-Aware Federated Learning Framework for Distributed Energy Resource Analytics in Constrained Environments

To be resilient against extreme weather events, the rural communities in Puerto Rico are leveraging distributed energy resources (DER). However, computing frameworks sup-porting the grid in critical decision-making are still largely centralized. Sensitive consumer data are transmitted over the Internet or cellular networks to a secondary or tertiary node. It guarantees better situational awareness at the cost of a wider attack surface, jeopardizing user privacy, as more DER come online. Cloud, Edge, and Fog computing all require data aggregation at some level. This paper introduces a privacy-aware federated learning framework that leverages the Fog model by pushing analytics all the way to the DER and load assets. These local models train on individual asset data and transmit only learned parameters (such as weights) over secure communications to a global decision-maker. By abstracting personally identifiable consumer data without impacting decision optimality, this framework better aligns with distributed power generation paradigm.

Sundararajan, Aditya↗

Model-Free Voltage Control of Active Distribution System with PVs Using Surrogate Model-Based Deep Reinforcement Learning

Accurate knowledge of the distribution system topology and parameters is required to achieve good voltage control performance, but this is difficult to obtain in practice. This paper proposes a physical-model-free voltage control method based on a surrogate-model-enabled deep reinforcement learning approach. Specifically, a surrogate model is trained in a supervised manner using the recorded limited number of historical data to learn the relationship between the power injections and voltage fluctuations of each node. Then, the deep reinforcement learning algorithm is applied to learn an optimal control strategy from the experiences obtained by continuous interactions with the surrogate model. The proposed method can achieve physical-model-free control of unbalanced distribution network and inform real-time decisions to deal with fast voltage fluctuations caused by the rapid variation of PV generation. Simulation results on an unbalance IEEE 123-bus system show that the proposed method can achieve similar performance as that of perfect physical-model-based approaches while being advantageous over other traditional methods.

active distribution network↗

Feasibility Study for a Subcritical Assembly at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory

A conceptual design has been completed for a new subcritical assembly at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This subcritical assembly will support the Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) training and education program to augment current subcritical assembly capabilities at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and at the National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC). The proposed subcritical assembly uses legacy AGN-201M research reactor fuel plates that are available at the Y-12 National Security Complex. This subcritical assembly contains approximately 620 grams of 235 U as UO 2 particulates distributed homogeneously in radiation-stabilized polyethylene. The fuel plates will have a graphite neutron reflector to obtain a core multiplication, $M$, from 10 to 50, corresponding to a k eff of 0.9 to 0.95, respectively. The subcritical assembly will be able to support at least four experiments for the training courses: the addition of fissile material to increase neutron multiplication (mass), a core separation experiment (interaction), the effect of adding moderators to the core (moderation), and the effect of adding neutron absorbers to the core (poison/absorption). The proposed ORNL subcritical assembly will provide additional student bandwidth to support NCSP training courses and to provide for some backup capacity in the event that nuclear facility operations are disrupted at SNL or NCERC due to some unforeseen issue. The subcritical assembly will be designed to be an inherently safe subcritical assembly—subcritical under all normal and abnormal conditions—and it will provide the capability to conduct hands-on training to support NCSP and general nuclear criticality safety (NCS) staff training and qualification goals.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Creating the Distributed Energy Resources Education Center (DEREC)

The built environment in the United States consumes 40% of the energy generated and emits roughly the same percentage of total carbon footprint. Distributed energy resources (DER), small or modular energy generation and storage technologies, present the nation with an opportunity to substantially improve those metrics while securing the nation’s energy independence. As opportunities increase for implementing such technologies, they also continue to evolve and often outpace the nation’s traditional building practices. In an effort to effectively and proactively incorporate distributed energy resources into the nation’s energy supply, Southface Energy Institute convened with national and regional partners to create the Distributed Energy Resources Education Center (DEREC). Using national model codes and their regionally amended versions as a collective starting point, the DEREC team collaborated with industry experts and identified impediments to effective implementation of DERs, developing discipline-specific curriculum to eliminate those impediments. The center, developed in collaboration with Interstate Renewable Energy Committee (IREC) and National Buildings Institute (NBI), leverages existing DER education content as well as new and dynamic training materials and online courses that collectively engage the many roles necessary for DER implementations, including designers, code officials, builders and skilled trades, and building owners who specify, inspect, build, operate, and maintain buildings with DERs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Hot, cold, or just right? An infrared biometric sensor to improve occupant comfort and reduce overcooling in buildings via closed-loop control

To improve occupant comfort and save energy in buildings, we have developed a closed-loop air conditioning (AC) sensor-controller that predicts occupant thermal sensation from the thermographic measurement of skin temperature distribution, then uses this information to reduce overcooling (cooling-energy overuse that discomforts occupants) by regulating AC output. Taking measures to protect privacy, it combines thermal-infrared (TIR) and color (visible spectrum) cameras with machine vision to measure the skin-surface temperature profile. Since the human thermoregulation system uses skin blood flow to maintain thermoneutrality, the distribution of skin temperature can be used to predict warm, neutral, and cool thermal states. We conducted a series of human-subject thermal-sensation trials in cold-to-hot environments, measuring skin temperatures and recording thermal sensation votes. We then trained random-forest classification machine-learning models (classifiers) to estimate thermal sensation from skin temperatures or skin-temperature differences. The estimated thermal sensation was input to a proportional integral (PI) control algorithm for the AC, targeting a sensation level between neutral and warm. Our sensor-controller includes a sensor assembly, server software, and client software. The server software orients the cameras and transmits images to the client software, which in turn assesses occupant skin temperature distribution, estimates occupant thermal sensation, and controls AC operation. A demonstration conducted in a conference room in an office building near Houston, TX showed that our system reduced overcooling, decreasing AC load by 42% when the room was occupied while improving occupant comfort (fraction of “comfortable” votes) by 15 percentage points.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Generation and Control of Self-Organized Nonlinear Kinetic Structures in High Energy Density Plasmas in the Presence of Intense Magnetic Fields and Ultrashort Laser Pulses

Goals were to study the interplay between electron plasma waves (EPW), KEEN waves and externally generated magnetic fields. In particular, the Weibel instability B field generation process and its interrelationship with the existence of nonlinear EPWs in high energy density plasmas. We focused on a number of models of how Kinetic, Nonlinear Electron Plasma Waves, KNL-EPW and KEEN waves create anisotropic electron velocity distribution functions, e- VDF, and how these anisotropic e- VDFs in turn drive the Weibel instability and generate B fields. Our goal is to control the SRS and SKEENS processes that generate the KNL-EPW, control the anisotropy, and thus also control the dynamics of the resulting B fields, their influence on the transport coefficients and heat transport that results, their modification of SRS itself and the reinforced anisotropy driven loop gain.

(Kinetic electrostatic electron nonlinear) KEEN wa↗

OMMYDCLD: a New A-train Cloud Product that Co-locates OMI and MODIS Cloud and Radiance Parameters onto the OMI Footprint

Clouds cover approximately 60% of the earth's surface. When obscuring the satellite's field of view (FOV), clouds complicate the retrieval of ozone, trace gases and aerosols from data collected by earth observing satellites. Cloud properties associated with optical thickness, cloud pressure, water phase, drop size distribution (DSD), cloud fraction, vertical and areal extent can also change significantly over short spatio-temporal scales. The radiative transfer models used to retrieve column estimates of atmospheric constituents typically do not account for all these properties and their variations. The OMI science team is preparing to release a new data product, OMMYDCLD, which combines the cloud information from sensors on board two earth observing satellites in the NASA A-Train: Aura/OMI and Aqua/MODIS. OMMYDCLD co-locates high resolution cloud and radiance information from MODIS onto the much larger OMI pixel and combines it with parameters derived from the two other OMI cloud products: OMCLDRR and OMCLDO2. The product includes histograms for MODIS scientific data sets (SDS) provided at 1 km resolution. The statistics of key data fields - such as effective particle radius, cloud optical thickness and cloud water path - are further separated into liquid and ice categories using the optical and IR phase information. OMMYDCLD offers users of OMI data cloud information that will be useful for carrying out OMI calibration work, multi-year studies of cloud vertical structure and in the identification and classification of multi-layer clouds.

OMMYDCLD↗

Genomic prediction of regional-scale performance in switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) by accounting for genotype-by-environment variation and yield surrogate traits

Switchgrass is a potential crop for bioenergy or carbon capture schemes, but further yield improvements through selective breeding are needed to encourage commercialization. To identify promising switchgrass germplasm for future breeding efforts, we conducted multisite and multitrait genomic prediction with a diversity panel of 630 genotypes from 4 switchgrass subpopulations (Gulf, Midwest, Coastal, and Texas), which were measured for spaced plant biomass yield across 10 sites. Our study focused on the use of genomic prediction to share information among traits and environments. Specifically, we evaluated the predictive ability of cross-validation (CV) schemes using only genetic data and the training set (cross-validation 1: CV1), a subset of the sites (cross-validation 2: CV2), and/or with 2 yield surrogates (flowering time and fall plant height). We found that genotype-by-environment interactions were largely due to the north–south distribution of sites. The genetic correlations between the yield surrogates and the biomass yield were generally positive (mean height r = 0.85; mean flowering time r = 0.45) and did not vary due to subpopulation or growing region (North, Middle, or South). Genomic prediction models had CV predictive abilities of –0.02 for individuals using only genetic data (CV1), but 0.55, 0.69, 0.76, 0.81, and 0.84 for individuals with biomass performance data from 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 sites included in the training data (CV2), respectively. To simulate a resource-limited breeding program, we determined the predictive ability of models provided with the following: 1 site observation of flowering time (0.39); 1 site observation of flowering time and fall height (0.51); 1 site observation of fall height (0.52); 1 site observation of biomass (0.55); and 5 site observations of biomass yield (0.84). The ability to share information at a regional scale is very encouraging, but further research is required to accurately translate spaced plant biomass to commercial-scale sward biomass performance.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗