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At least 811 records · Page 45

Wave climate and energy resources in American Samoa from a 42-year high-resolution hindcast

Here, this paper presents an analysis of the wave climate and a characterization of the wave energy resources in American Samoa, a U.S. territory covering seven south central Pacific islands and atolls. A numerical wave model based on WAVEWATCH III® and unstructured SWAN was developed, validated, and executed for 1979–2020 to generate a hindcast dataset suitable for resource characterization. Model-data comparisons were performed with measurements collected in situ and from satellite-based altimeters. The model was found to perform well with a bias in significant wave height of -0.14 m and -0.06 m against buoy and altimeters, respectively. The multimodal sea state of American Samoa is investigated by identifying the sources of energy reaching the islands and partitioning the wave spectrum accordingly. The wave resources characterization follows the International Electrotechnical Commission Technical Specifications to be compatible with studies performed for other U.S. regions. The average omnidirectional wave power at 2 km from shore around Tutuila, the main island of American Samoa, is 14 kW/m. Locations east and west of the islands have a more consistent resource throughout the year because the northwest and southwest swells that are dominant during different seasons complement each other.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Sensor response and radiation damage effects for 3D pixels in the ATLAS IBL Detector

Pixel sensors in 3D technology equip the outer ends of the staves of the Insertable B Layer (IBL), the innermost layer of the ATLAS Pixel Detector, which was installed before the start of LHC Run 2 in 2015. 3D pixel sensors are expected to exhibit more tolerance to radiation damage and are the technology of choice for the innermost layer in the ATLAS tracker upgrade for the HL-LHC programme. While the LHC has delivered an integrated luminosity of ≃ 235 fb -1 since the start of Run 2, the 3D sensors have received a non-ionising energy deposition corresponding to a fluence of ≃ 8.5 × 10 14 1 MeV neutron-equivalent cm -2 averaged over the sensor area. This paper presents results of measurements of the 3D pixel sensors' response during Run 2 and the first two years of Run 3, with predictions of its evolution until the end of Run 3 in 2025. Data are compared with radiation damage simulations, based on detailed maps of the electric field in the Si substrate, at various fluence levels and bias voltage values. These results illustrate the potential of 3D technology for pixel applications in high-radiation

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Sensor and Actuator Attacks on Hierarchical Control Systems with Domain-Aware Operator Theory

Cyber-Physical Systems (CPSs) provide opportunities for cyber attacks to have physical impacts. Advanced Persistent Threats (APTs) are a subclass of cyber threats that act stealthily to avoid detection and enable long-term attacks. Here, we build on our past work in APT modelling to combine deception-based sensor bias attacks and direct actuator manipulations in attacks against a hierarchical control system. That past work used the Koopman operator to develop a data-driven, domain-aware, optimization-based attacker model. Using an expansion of this model, we compute several different attacks, including multiple simultaneous attacks, against a high-fidelity commercial building emulator and compare the impacts of those attacks to each other. One next step of interest is to construct a defender system, built on the same modelling approach, designed to detect and mitigate such attacks.

koopman operator, Cyber-Physical Security, machine↗

Round Robin Summary for ASTM Method C1733

This report was prepared to summarize the results of an inter- and intra-laboratory round robin of ASTM Method C1733-17 (now C1733-20a) Distribution Coefficients of Inorganic Species by the Batch Method. The testing used the sorption of cesium (Cs) to a standard reference soil from the San Joaquin Valley (Standard Reference Material 2709a). The data collected from the nine participants was used for a statistical analysis to assess the precision of the method and generate a precision and bias statement to update the C1733-20a standard.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Properties of the Prompt Optical Counterpart Arising from the Cooling of Electrons in Gamma-Ray Bursts

This work extends a contemporaneous effort to study the properties of the lower-energy counterpart synchrotron emission produced by the cooling of relativistic gamma-ray burst (GRB) electrons through radiation (synchrotron and self-Compton) emission and adiabatic losses. We derive the major characteristics (pulse duration, lag time after burst, and brightness relative to the burst) of the prompt optical counterpart (POC) occurring during or after the GRB. Depending on the magnetic field lifetime, duration of electron injection, and electron transit time Δt o from hard X-ray (GRB) to optical-emitting energies, a POC may appear during the GRB pulse (of duration δt γ ) or after (delayed OC). The signature of counterparts arising from the cooling of GRB electrons is that POC pulses (Δto < δtγ) last as long as the corresponding GRB pulse (δt o ≃ δt γ ), while delayed OC pulses (Δt o > δt γ ) last as long as the transit time (δt o ≃ Δt o ). If OC variability can be measured, then another signature for this OC mechanism is that the GRB variability is passed on to POCs but not to delayed OCs. Within the GRB electron cooling model for counterparts, POCs should be on average dimmer than delayed ones (consistent with the data), and harder GRB low-energy slopes β LE should be associated more often with the dimmer POCs. The latter sets an observational bias against detecting POCs from (the cooling of electrons in) GRBs with a hard slope β LE , making it more likely that the detected POCs of such bursts arise from another mechanism.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Development of observation-based global multilayer soil moisture products for 1970 to 2016

Abstract. Soil moisture (SM) datasets are critical to understanding the global water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles and benefit extensive societal applications. However, individual sources of SM data (e.g., in situ and satellite observations, reanalysis, offline land surface model simulations, Earth system model – ESM – simulations) have source-specific limitations and biases related to the spatiotemporal continuity, resolutions, and modeling and retrieval assumptions. Here, we developed seven global, gap-free, long-term (1970–2016), multilayer (0–10, 10–30, 30–50, and 50–100 cm) SM products at monthly 0.5∘ resolution (available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13661312.v1; Wang and Mao, 2021) by synthesizing a wide range of SM datasets using three statistical methods (unweighted averaging, optimal linear combination, and emergent constraint). The merged products outperformed their source datasets when evaluated with in situ observations (mean bias from −0.044 to 0.033 m3 m−3, root mean square errors from 0.076 to 0.104 m3 m−3, Pearson correlations from 0.35 to 0.67) and multiple gridded datasets that did not enter merging because of insufficient spatial, temporal, or soil layer coverage. Three of the new SM products, which were produced by applying any of the three merging methods to the source datasets excluding the ESMs, had lower bias and root mean square errors and higher correlations than the ESM-dependent merged products. The ESM-independent products also showed a better ability to capture historical large-scale drought events than the ESM-dependent products. The merged products generally showed reasonable temporal homogeneity and physically plausible global sensitivities to observed meteorological factors, except that the ESM-dependent products underestimated the low-frequency temporal variability in SM and overestimated the high-frequency variability for the 50–100 cm depth. Based on these evaluation results, the three ESM-independent products were finally recommended for future applications because of their better performances than the ESM-dependent ones. Despite uncertainties in the raw SM datasets and fusion methods, these hybrid products create added value over existing SM datasets because of the performance improvement and harmonized spatial, temporal, and vertical coverages, and they provide a new foundation for scientific investigation and resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

MUSiC: Critical Experiment with Bare Highly Enriched Uranium Shells Benchmark

The measurements of the Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSiC) experiment were performed from December 2020 through April 2021. The purpose of the experiment was to test a variety of multiplicity detection systems for a large range of multiplication values and to see how well they perform as the k eff of the MUSiC series of experiments approached the delayed critical window. Out of the ten configurations that were studied, two of them were super critical and were recently approved as benchmarks and they will be included in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICBESP) handbook. For each of the two experiments, uncertainties were evaluated six categories: (1) critical measurement, (2) mass, (3) composition, (4) positioning, (5) dimensions, and (6) temperature. The largest contribution to the overall uncertainty in each of the cases was due to the uncertainties in the dimensions of the HEU Rocky Flats shells. Simplified detailed models were created with an average bias of -130.5 pcm due to the removal various components surrounding the experiment. For MCNP6.2 models using ENDF-VIII.0 neutron cross section data, the average difference between the calculated and benchmark k effs was -54 pcm for the detailed model and -102 pcm for the simplified model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The outer stellar mass of massive galaxies: a simple tracer of halo mass with scatter comparable to richness and reduced projection effects

ABSTRACT Using the weak gravitational lensing data from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Subaru Strategic Program (HSC survey), we study the potential of different stellar mass estimates in tracing halo mass. We consider galaxies with log10(M⋆/M⊙) > 11.5 at 0.2 < z < 0.5 with carefully measured light profiles, and clusters from the redMaPPer and CAMIRA richness-based algorithms. We devise a method (the ‘Top-N test’) to evaluate the scatter in the halo mass–observable relation for different tracers, and to inter-compare halo mass proxies in four number density bins using stacked galaxy–galaxy lensing profiles. This test reveals three key findings. Stellar masses based on CModel photometry and aperture luminosity within R <30 kpc are poor proxies of halo mass. In contrast, the stellar mass of the outer envelope is an excellent halo mass proxy. The stellar mass within R = [50, 100] kpc, M⋆, [50, 100], has performance comparable to the state-of-the-art richness-based cluster finders at log10Mvir ≳ 14.0 and could be a better halo mass tracer at lower halo masses. Finally, using N-body simulations, we find that the lensing profiles of massive haloes selected by M⋆, [50, 100] are consistent with the expectation for a sample without projection or mis-centring effects. Richness-selected clusters, on the other hand, display an excess at R ∼ 1 Mpc in their lensing profiles, which may suggest a more significant impact from selection biases. These results suggest that M⋆-based tracers have distinct advantages in identifying massive haloes, which could open up new avenues for cluster cosmology. The codes and data used in this work can be found here:

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mirostructure Characterization of Friction Consolidated Copper-Nickel using a Machine Learning Approach: Developing Process to Microstructure Associations

Friction consolidation (FC) is a solid phase processing approach where discrete material forms such as powders, chips, nuggets, etc. are densified via shear deformation. The precursors are placed in a billet container and brought in contact with a rotating tool that applying the desirable amount of normal force. Under the combined action of the rotation and normal pressure, the discrete precursor is consolidated through porosity reduction and shear deformation. FC is increasingly being studied as an attractive approach to manufacturing fully dense parts from powder forms owing to its ability to mix, alloy and consolidate difficult-to-process precursors in minimal number of process steps. Material consolidation and deformation in shear consolidation processes have been studied extensively previously for different material combinations previously. However, despite the extensive research in this area, understanding of the mechanistic processes in pore consolidation, deformation-induced mixing and material solubility during FC is still evolving. Material development using solid phase processing approaches such as FC is often performed based on research experience/education, which can be biased. Conventional analysis and simulation tools in this area tend to be successful only when material thermodynamic pathways and microstructural evolution sequences resulting from processing are clearly defined or known. They are not as effective for emerging advanced manufacturing technologies where material evolution pathways are not well established. The ability to predict optimal process parameters based on material chemistry and bulk properties is essential to accelerate materials design and processing, as are an understanding of the relevant structure-processing-property relationships. These structure-processing-property-performance relationships are at the core of materials science research. Microstructure characterization provides the link to these four core areas, often through visualizing material microstructure using imaging techniques. However, linking microstructure image data (i.e., micrographs) to variables of interest (e.g., processing parameters, material chemistry) in a reproducible, generalizable, and quantitative manner is a significant challenge. Typically, quantitatively linking image data to processing history relies on significant domain knowledge and manual or subject matter expert (SME)-heuristic based image analysis. Such an approach to image analysis has the potential to be biased, inefficient, and difficult to replicate.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Dark Energy Survey Year 3 results: Cosmology from combined galaxy clustering and lensing validation on cosmological simulations

In this work, we present a validation of the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 (DES Y3) 3×2-point analysis choices by testing them on Buzzard2.0, a new suite of cosmological simulations that is tailored for the testing and validation of combined galaxy clustering and weak-lensing analyses. We show that the buzzard2.0 simulations accurately reproduce many important aspects of the DES Y3 data, including photometric redshift and magnitude distributions, and the relevant set of two-point clustering and weak-lensing statistics. We then show that our model for the 3×2-point data vector is accurate enough to recover the true cosmology in simulated surveys assuming the true redshift distributions for our source and lens samples, demonstrating robustness to uncertainties in the modeling of the nonlinear matter power spectrum, nonlinear galaxy bias, and higher-order lensing corrections. Additionally, we demonstrate for the first time that our photometric redshift calibration methodology, including information from photometry, spectroscopy, clustering cross-correlations, and galaxy–galaxy lensing ratios, is accurate enough to recover the true cosmology in simulated surveys in the presence of realistic photometric redshift uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

First principles reactive simulation for equation of state prediction

The high cost of density functional theory (DFT) has hitherto limited the ab initio prediction of the equation of state (EOS). In this article, we employ a combination of large scale computing, advanced simulation techniques, and smart data science strategies to provide an unprecedented ab initio performance analysis of the high explosive pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN). Comparison to both experiment and thermochemical predictions reveals important quantitative limitations of DFT for EOS prediction and thus the assessment of high explosives. In particular, we find that DFT predicts the energy of PETN detonation products to be systematically too high relative to the unreacted neat crystalline material, resulting in an underprediction of the detonation velocity, pressure, and temperature at the Chapman–Jouguet state. The energetic bias can be partially accounted for by high-level electronic structure calculations of the product molecules. Furthermore we demonstrate a modeling strategy for mapping chemical composition across a wide parameter space with limited numerical data, the results of which suggest additional molecular species to consider in thermochemical modeling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Differentiating multi-MeV, multi-ion spectra with CR-39 solid-state nuclear track detectors

The development of high intensity petawatt lasers has created new possibilities for ion acceleration and nuclear fusion using solid targets. In such laser-matter interaction, multiple ion species are accelerated with broad spectra up to hundreds of MeV. To measure ion yields and for species identification, CR-39 solid-state nuclear track detectors are frequently used. However, these detectors are limited in their applicability for multi-ion spectra differentiation as standard image recognition algorithms can lead to a misinterpretation of data, there is no unique relation between track diameter and particle energy, and there are overlapping pit diameter relationships for multiple particle species. In this report, we address these issues by first developing an algorithm to overcome user bias during image processing. Second, we use calibration of the detector response for protons, carbon and helium ions (alpha particles) from 0.1 to above 10 MeV and measurements of statistical energy loss fluctuations in a forward-fitting procedure utilizing multiple, differently filtered CR-39, altogether enabling high-sensitivity, multi-species particle spectroscopy. To validate this capability, we show that inferred CR-39 spectra match Thomson parabola ion spectrometer data from the same experiment. Filtered CR-39 spectrometers were used to detect, within a background of ~ 2 × 10 11 sr -1 J -1 protons and carbons, (1.3 ± 0.7) × 10 8 sr -1 J -1 alpha particles from laser-driven proton-boron fusion reactions.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A Comparison of Preconstruction and Operational Wake Loss Estimates for Land-Based Wind Plants

Recent studies suggest that biases between wind plant pre-construction energy yield estimates and actual energy production are decreasing over time. However, variability in energy yield prediction accuracy across different projects and wind energy consultants remains high. Wake effects are one of the largest categories comprising the pre-construction energy yield assessment process. To assess the accuracy of wake loss predictions, we compare pre-construction wake loss estimates provided by 8 consultants to the estimated operational wake losses for 10 North American wind plants, as part of the Wind Plant Performance Prediction (WP3) Benchmark project. We estimate operational wake losses using supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data by comparing total wind plant energy production to the potential energy production based on the power produced by freestream wind turbines. In the presentation, we will discuss the overall wake loss prediction bias as well as the project-to-project variability in the prediction accuracy. Further, we will highlight challenges encountered when estimating operational wake losses, including the impact of complex terrain and the presence of neighboring wind plants.

benchmark↗

Accurate Atomic Correlation and Total Energies for Correlation Consistent Effective Core Potentials

Very recently, we introduced a set of correlation consistent effective core potentials (ccECPs) constructed within full many-body approaches. By employing significantly more accurate correlated approaches, we were able to reach a new level of accuracy for the resulting effective core Hamiltonians. We also strived for simplicity of use and easy transferability into a variety of electronic structure methods in quantum chemistry and condensed matter physics. Here, as a reference for future use, we present exact or nearly exact total energy calculations for these ccECPs. The calculations cover H–Kr elements and are based on the state-of-the-art configuration interaction (CI), coupled-cluster (CC), and quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) calculations with systematically eliminated/improved errors. In particular, we carry out full CI/CCSD(T)/CCSDT(Q) calculations with cc-pVnZ with up to n = 6 basis sets and we estimate the complete basis set limits. Using combinations of these approaches, we achieved an accuracy of ≈1–10 mHa for K–Zn atoms and ≈0.1–0.3 mHa for all other elements—within about 1% or better of the ccECP total correlation energies. We also estimate the corresponding kinetic energies within the feasible limit of full CI calculations. In order to provide data for QMC calculations, we include fixed-node diffusion Monte Carlo energies for each element that give quantitative insights into the fixed-node biases for single-reference trial wave functions. The results offer a clear benchmark for future high-accuracy calculations in a broad variety of correlated wave function methods such as CI and CC as well is in stochastic approaches such as real space sampling QMC.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Producing Evaluation-quality 239 Pu Average Prompt Fission Neutron Multiplicities using a Correlated Fission Model

An evaluation of the average prompt fission neutron multiplicity, $\bar{ν}_p$, of 239 Pu(n,f) is shown. This evaluation includes (a) the correlated fission model CGMF, and (b) a detailed analysis of past and recently published experimental data. Using CGMF-calculated $\bar{ν}_p$ as prior enables to link, through the use of evaluated model input parameters, $\bar{ν}_p$ to other fission observables such as the prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS), preneutron emission fission yields as a function of mass, and the average total kinetic energy of the fragments. These evaluated parameters produce realistic predictions of many fission observables, while the evaluated $\bar{ν}_p$ agrees well (χ 2 ≈ 1) with data. Moreover, with the new evaluated $\bar{ν}_p$, the effective neutron multiplication factor of fast Pu ICSBEP critical assemblies are predicted with a mean bias of 58 pcm compared to 18 pcm with ENDF/B-VIII.0, when paired with a new 239 Pu PFNS and fission cross section. Due to these encouraging validation results, the evaluated $\bar{ν}_p$ is currently part of a release candidate for the 239 Pu ENDF/B-VIII.1 file. Hence, a correlated fission model was used for the first time for evaluating $\bar{ν}_p$ that is of evaluation quality. This is an important step towards consistent evaluations of prompt fission observables.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Robustness of cosmic birefringence measurement against Galactic foreground emission and instrumental systematics

The polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) can be used to search for parity-violating processes like that predicted by a Chern-Simons coupling to a light pseudoscalar field. Such an interaction rotates E modes into E modes in the observed CMB signal through an effect known as cosmic birefringence. Even though isotropic birefringence can be confused with the rotation produced by a miscalibration of the detectors' polarization angles, the degeneracy between both effects is broken when Galactic foreground emission is used as a calibrator. Here, in this work, we use realistic simulations of the High-Frequency Instrument of the Planck mission to test the impact that Galactic foreground emission and instrumental systematics have on the recent birefringence measurements obtained through this technique. Our results demonstrate the robustness of the methodology against the miscalibration of polarization angles and other systematic effects, like intensity-to-polarization leakage, beam leakage, or cross-polarization effects. However, our estimator is sensitive to the EB correlation of polarized foreground emission. Here we propose to correct the bias induced by dust EB by modeling the foreground signal with templates produced in Bayesian component-separation analyses that fit parametric models to CMB data. Acknowledging the limitations of currently available dust templates like that of the Commander sky model, high-precision CMB data and a characterization of dust beyond the modified blackbody paradigm are needed to obtain a definitive measurement of cosmic birefringence in the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Attraction and Longevity of 2- and 3-Component Food Cone Lures for the Caribbean Fruit Fly, Anastrepha suspensa (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Abstract The Caribbean fruit fly, Anastrepha suspensa (Loew) (Diptera: Tephritidae), is a quarantine pest of Citrus spp. and a production pest of guava and other specialty fruits in Florida. Effective monitoring lures and traps are needed for early pest detection and timely initiation of control measures. As part of a continued effort to identify attractive synthetic lures for the Caribbean fruit fly, we conducted field tests in Homestead, Florida to compare the efficacy and longevity of commercial 2- and 3-component cone lures (2C [ammonium acetate and putrescine], 3C [ammonium acetate, putrescine, and trimethylamine]), the current standards used by regulatory agencies, versus the traditional liquid protein bait consisting of hydrolyzed torula yeast and borax as a positive control. Additional lures were also field-aged and periodically brought into the laboratory to quantify residual chemical contents. Traps baited with the torula yeast-borax mixture captured the highest mean number of A. suspensa, and traps baited with the commercial 2C lures captured more flies than the 3C lures. Traps baited with torula yeast-borax also captured the highest number of nontarget Diptera. Captures with all three treatments were significantly biased toward females. Attractiveness of the 2C lure began to drop after 6–8 wk, and the 3C lure after 5–6 wk. Overall, these data suggest that the 2C cone lure is more attractive to A. suspensa than the 3C cone lure under field conditions in south Florida, and that the 2C lures are attractive for up to 8 wk.

Entomology↗

Accurate field-level weak lensing inference for precision cosmology

We present miko, a catalog-to-cosmology pipeline for general flat-sky field-level inference, which provides access to cosmological information beyond the two-point statistics. In the context of weak lensing, we identify several new field-level analysis systematics (such as aliasing, Fourier mode-coupling, and density-induced shape noise), quantify their impact on cosmological constraints, and correct the biases to a percent level. Next, we find that model misspecification can lead to both absolute bias and incorrect uncertainty quantification for the inferred cosmological parameters in realistic simulations. The Gaussian map prior infers unbiased cosmological parameters, regardless of the true data distribution, but it yields overconfident uncertainties. The log-normal map prior quantifies the uncertainties accurately, although it requires careful calibration of the shift parameters for unbiased cosmological parameters. Here, we demonstrate systematics control down to the 2% level for both models, making them suitable for ongoing weak lensing surveys.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗