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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 811 records · Page 45
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

MILK : a Python scripting interface to MAUD for automation of Rietveld analysis

Modern diffraction experiments ( e.g. in situ parametric studies) present scientists with many diffraction patterns to analyze. Interactive analyses via graphical user interfaces tend to slow down obtaining quantitative results such as lattice parameters and phase fractions. Furthermore, Rietveld refinement strategies ( i.e. the parameter turn-on-off sequences) tend to be instrument specific or even specific to a given dataset, such that selection of strategies can become a bottleneck for efficient data analysis. Managing multi-histogram datasets such as from multi-bank neutron diffractometers or caked 2D synchrotron data presents additional challenges due to the large number of histogram-specific parameters. To overcome these challenges in the Rietveld software Material Analysis Using Diffraction ( MAUD ), the MAUD Interface Language Kit ( MILK ) is developed along with an updated text batch interface for MAUD . The open-source software MILK is computer-platform independent and is packaged as a Python library that interfaces with MAUD . Using MILK , model selection ( e.g. various texture or peak-broadening models), Rietveld parameter manipulation and distributed parallel batch computing can be performed through a high-level Python interface. A high-level interface enables analysis workflows to be easily programmed, shared and applied to large datasets, and external tools to be integrated with MAUD . Through modification to the MAUD batch interface, plot and data exports have been improved. The resulting hierarchical folders from Rietveld refinements with MILK are compatible with Cinema: Debye–Scherrer , a tool for visualizing and inspecting the results of multi-parameter analyses of large quantities of diffraction data. In this manuscript, the combined Python scripting and visualization capability of MILK is demonstrated with a quantitative texture and phase analysis of data collected at the HIPPO neutron diffractometer.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deriving spatially explicit direct and indirect interaction networks from animal movement data

Abstract Quantifying spatiotemporally explicit interactions within animal populations facilitates the understanding of social structure and its relationship with ecological processes. Data from animal tracking technologies (Global Positioning Systems [“GPS”]) can circumvent longstanding challenges in the estimation of spatiotemporally explicit interactions, but the discrete nature and coarse temporal resolution of data mean that ephemeral interactions that occur between consecutive GPS locations go undetected. Here, we developed a method to quantify individual and spatial patterns of interaction using continuous‐time movement models (CTMMs) fit to GPS tracking data. We first applied CTMMs to infer the full movement trajectories at an arbitrarily fine temporal scale before estimating interactions, thus allowing inference of interactions occurring between observed GPS locations. Our framework then infers indirect interactions—individuals occurring at the same location, but at different times—while allowing the identification of indirect interactions to vary with ecological context based on CTMM outputs. We assessed the performance of our new method using simulations and illustrated its implementation by deriving disease‐relevant interaction networks for two behaviorally differentiated species, wild pigs ( Sus scrofa ) that can host African Swine Fever and mule deer ( Odocoileus hemionus ) that can host chronic wasting disease. Simulations showed that interactions derived from observed GPS data can be substantially underestimated when temporal resolution of movement data exceeds 30‐min intervals. Empirical application suggested that underestimation occurred in both interaction rates and their spatial distributions. CTMM‐Interaction method, which can introduce uncertainties, recovered majority of true interactions. Our method leverages advances in movement ecology to quantify fine‐scale spatiotemporal interactions between individuals from lower temporal resolution GPS data. It can be leveraged to infer dynamic social networks, transmission potential in disease systems, consumer–resource interactions, information sharing, and beyond. The method also sets the stage for future predictive models linking observed spatiotemporal interaction patterns to environmental drivers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

DLHub: Simplifying publication, discovery, and use of machine learning models in science

Machine Learning (ML) has become a critical tool enabling new methods of analysis and driving deeper understanding of phenomena across scientific disciplines. There is a growing need for "learning systems" to support various phases in the ML lifecycle. While others have focused on supporting model development, training, and inference, few have focused on the unique challenges inherent in science, such as the need to publish and share models and to serve them on a range of available computing resources. In this paper, we present the Data and Learning Hub for science (DLHub), a learning system designed to support these use cases. Specifically, DLHub enables publication of models, with descriptive metadata, persistent identifiers, and flexible access control. It packages arbitrary models into portable servable containers, and enables low-latency, distributed serving of these models on heterogeneous compute resources. In this work, we show that DLHub supports low-latency model inference comparable to other model serving systems including TensorFlow Serving, SageMaker, and Clipper, and improved performance, by up to 95%, with batching and memoization enabled. We also show that DLHub can scale to concurrently serve models on 500 containers. Finally, we describe five case studies that highlight the use of DLHub for scientific applications.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Optimal adjustment sets for causal query estimation in partially observed biomolecular networks

Abstract Causal query estimation in biomolecular networks commonly selects a ‘valid adjustment set’, i.e. a subset of network variables that eliminates the bias of the estimator. A same query may have multiple valid adjustment sets, each with a different variance. When networks are partially observed, current methods use graph-based criteria to find an adjustment set that minimizes asymptotic variance. Unfortunately, many models that share the same graph topology, and therefore same functional dependencies, may differ in the processes that generate the observational data. In these cases, the topology-based criteria fail to distinguish the variances of the adjustment sets. This deficiency can lead to sub-optimal adjustment sets, and to miss-characterization of the effect of the intervention. We propose an approach for deriving ‘optimal adjustment sets’ that takes into account the nature of the data, bias and finite-sample variance of the estimator, and cost. It empirically learns the data generating processes from historical experimental data, and characterizes the properties of the estimators by simulation. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed approach in four biomolecular Case studies with different topologies and different data generation processes. The implementation and reproducible Case studies are at https://github.com/srtaheri/OptimalAdjustmentSet.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Minimizing CGYRO HPC Communication Costs in Ensembles with XGYRO by Sharing the Collisional Constant Tensor Structure

First-principles fusion plasma simulations are both compute and memory intensive, and CGYRO is no exception. The use of many HPC nodes to fit the problem in the available memory thus results in significant communication overhead, which is hard to avoid for any single simulation. That said, most fusion studies are composed of ensembles of simulations, so we developed a new tool, named XGYRO, that executes a whole ensemble of CGYRO simulations as a single HPC job. By treating the ensemble as a unit, XGYRO can alter the global buffer distribution logic and apply optimizations that are not feasible on any single simulation, but only on the ensemble as a whole. The main saving comes from the sharing of the collisional constant tensor structure, since its values are typically identical between parameter-sweep simulations. This data structure dominates the memory consumption of CGYRO simulations, so distributing it among the whole ensemble results in drastic memory savings for each simulation, which in turn results in overall lower communication overhead.

CGYRO↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving radiograph analysis throughput through transfer learning and object detection

SIGN Fracture Care International partners with surgeons in low-resource hospitals worldwide to provide access to effective orthopedic care by donating educational materials and innovatively designed surgical implants. Over two decades, SIGN’s Online Surgical Database (SOSD) has grown to contain over 500,000 medical images, with radiographs holding the majority share. One challenge in working with hospitals worldwide is that both the radiographs uploaded to the SOSD and the data entry accompanying the uploads vary in quality. To improve the accuracy of data in the SOSD, we trained a model to detect surgical implants in radiographs. We first developed a tool to automatically detect radiographs, then trained an object detection model to determine the number and placement of surgical implants visible in the radiograph. Active learning was used to generate a training set containing 2,510 radiographs with screws, nails, and plates labeled by bounding boxes. Training a model to simultaneously recognize all three classes of implants gave a low average precision (AP) for the plate class, likely due to the low number of plate instances in our training set and the large variety of surgical plates used by SIGN-partnered surgeons. Applying standard image augmentation techniques to increase the plate count in our training set did not appreciably increase the AP of plate detection. To improve plate detection, we redrew the bounding boxes to account for correlations between the screw and plate classes. Training one model to detect nails and screws and a separate model to detect plates increased the AP of plate detection by 78.8 percentage points. The AP of each class was 80.7% for screws, 93.6% for nails, and 92.6% for plates; meanwhile, the sensitivity was 92% for screws, 86% for nails, and 81% for plates. We show that object detection methods can be used to detect surgical implants in radiographs of varying quality; however, the detection ability is dependent on the type of implant, and some implants, in our case plates, must be treated differently than others. Such tools can improve the throughput of radiograph analysis, assisting physicians and surgeons with the treatment of bone fractures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2021 Edition

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2021 edition of its land-based wind market report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2020. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Highlights of this year’s update include: -Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a record pace in 2020, with 25 billion dollars invested in 16.8 GW of capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 8% of the entire nation’s electricity supply, and is more than 20% in 10 states. At least 209 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 61 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 13 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or PV. -Wind project performance has increased over time: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was over 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. -Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2010, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2020, 91% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. -Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices are averaging 775–850 dollars/kW. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2020 was 1,460 dollars/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though stable for the last three years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. -Wind energy prices remain low, around 20 dollars/MWh in the interior of the country: After topping out at 70 dollars/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around 20 dollars/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average 30 dollars/MWh or more. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. -Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind declined in 2020, following natural gas prices lower and averaging under 15 dolalrs/MWh in ERCOT, MISO, NYISO and SPP; higher values were seen in CAISO, ISO-NE and PJM. -The average levelized cost of wind energy is down to 33 dollars/MWh: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography, but the national average stood at 33 dollars/MWh in 2020—down substantially historically, though consistent with the previous two years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. -The health and climate benefits of wind in 2020 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of 76 dollars/MWh-wind nationwide in 2020. -The domestic supply chain for wind equipment is diverse: For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>85%), towers (60-75%), and blades and hubs (30-50%), but is much lower for most components internal to the nacelle.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recent Collaborations and Innovations to Demonstrate Next-Generation Techniques for Monitoring Subsurface Carbon Storage

World Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS) Conference, Bergen, Norway, September 1–4, 2025. This talk provides a high-level overview of many novel and sustainable carbon storage-monitoring methods to accelerate the deployment of CCUS technologies at future CCUS sites across the United States. The Energy & Environmental Research Center’s work impacts the general CCUS industry by providing novel low-impact methods for tracking the injected plume’s migration and more autonomous data collection and processing techniques for performing assurance monitoring. Specifically, the results benefit 1) CCUS community members through knowledge sharing of lessons learned; 2) CCUS operators through commercialization of additional methods, including improvements to workflows and simplification of fieldwork; and 3) CCUS project stakeholders through implementation of low-impact and more autonomous monitoring solutions.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Do Molecular Fingerprints Identify Diverse Active Drugs in Large-Scale Virtual Screening? (No)

Computational approaches for small-molecule drug discovery now regularly scale to the consideration of libraries containing billions of candidate small molecules. One promising approach to increased the speed of evaluating billion-molecule libraries is to develop succinct representations of each molecule that enable the rapid identification of molecules with similar properties. Molecular fingerprints are thought to provide a mechanism for producing such representations. Here, we explore the utility of commonly used fingerprints in the context of predicting similar molecular activity. We show that fingerprint similarity provides little discriminative power between active and inactive molecules for a target protein based on a known active—while they may sometimes provide some enrichment for active molecules in a drug screen, a screened data set will still be dominated by inactive molecules. We also demonstrate that high-similarity actives appear to share a scaffold with the query active, meaning that they could more easily be identified by structural enumeration. Furthermore, even when limited to only active molecules, fingerprint similarity values do not correlate with compound potency. In sum, these results highlight the need for a new wave of molecular representations that will improve the capacity to detect biologically active molecules based on their similarity to other such molecules.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Extending Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to Future Water Supply In-frastructure Scenarios: A Case Study of San Antonio, TX

Datasets supporting findings and visualization behind Okoye and McManamay (2025) Extending Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to Future Water Supply Infrastructure Scenarios: A Case Study of San Antonio, TX. Environmental Research Communications, DOI: 10.57931/2563186 These datasets contains the results of a site selection analysis for municipal water supply planning across multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs 1–5) and hard scenario classification of water systems in San Antonio, TX. It includes data at the resolution of individual surface water supply sources (COMIDs) and integrates a wide range of hydrologic, socioeconomic, infrastructural, and scenario-based planning variables. Please refer to the README file provided in Files for more details. Descriptions of the datasets are provided below. Dataset(s) Descriptions: Dataset_SSP1_SSP4.xlsx - Contains data used for site selection optimization under SSP1 to SSP4. This dataset was generated based on multi-indicator computations (e.g., WAI, WQI, ERI, WTC, WIC), scenario demand projections, and resource and spatial constraints, excluding new reservoir values. Dataset_SSP5.xlsx - Used for site optimization under SSP5. Unlike Dataset_SSP1_SSP4, this dataset includes new reservoir features with updated calculations of WAI, WTC, and WIC to reflect the added infrastructure and supply potential. hard_classification.xlsx - Provides the scenario classification output for each site. Includes both the initial scenario classification based on Euclidean Distance and adjusted classifications based on 30% change reduction BAU.zip - Zipped folder of .shp files showing spatially optimized water supply sites per SSP under the Business-As-Usual (BAU) water demand strategy LowGW.zip - Zipped folder of .shp files showing optimized site selections under the Low Groundwater strategy

geospatial↗
DOE OSTI2021

Overview of the Second Workshop on Scholarly Document Processing

With the ever-increasing pace of research and high volume of scholarly communication, scholars face a daunting task. Not only must they keep up with the growing literature in their own and related fields, scholars increasingly also need to rebut pseudo-science and disinformation. These needs have motivated an increasing focus on computational methods for enhancing search, summarization, and analysis of scholarly documents. However, the various strands of research on scholarly document processing remain fragmented. To reach out to the broader NLP and AI/ML community, pool distributed efforts in this area, and enable shared access to published research, we held the 2nd Workshop on Scholarly Document Processing (SDP) at NAACL 2021 as a virtual event (https://sdproc.org/2021/). The SDP workshop consisted of a research track, three invited talks, and three Shared Tasks (LongSumm 2021, SCIVER, and 3C). The program was geared towards the application of NLP, information retrieval, and data mining for scholarly documents, with an emphasis on identifying and providing solutions to open challenges.

Beltagy, Iz↗
DOE OSTI2024

Novel Approach to PV Inverter Modeling and Simulation Leveraging Experiments, Learning Based Modeling and Co-Simulation: Preprint

Photovoltaic inverter (PV) inverter manufacturers use custom, proprietary control approaches and topologies in their inverter design. Due to this proprietary nature, it is not possible to share EMT domain models for system studies. This research work presents a novel approach in experimental design, high fidelity data collection, use of learning-based modeling, and co-simulation to enhance the PV inverter modeling. We used a 20 kW off-the-shelf grid following PV inverter and subjected the inverter to controlled tests including voltage and frequency step changes, as well as solar irradiance variations. The recorded high frequency data was used in learning-based model training. This learning-based model was imported into an Electromagnetic Transient (EMT) simulation tool using co-simulation techniques to complete the modeling effort and integrate the model into an EMT simulation tool. The three key components in this research work are the design of experimental setup, use of learning-based approach for model development and use of co-simulation to complete the approach. The proposed approach will allow users to develop a model in a really short period of time and achieve reasonable inverter models.

artificial intelligence↗
DOE OSTI2024

Publicly Available Molten Salt Data/Benchmarks

This presentation summarizes data for three molten salt reactors that has been made publicly available by Copenhagen Atomics. This information will be shared with the participants of the OECD/NEA International Reactor Physics Experiment Evaluation (IRPhE) Technical Review Group.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2026

The nucleardatapy toolkit for simple access to experimental nuclear data, astrophysical observations, and theoretical predictions

Systematic comparisons across theoretical predictions for the properties of dense matter, nuclear physics data, and astrophysical observations (also called meta-analyses) are performed. Existing predictions for symmetric nuclear and neutron matter properties are considered, and they are shown in this paper as an illustration of the present knowledge. Asymmetric matter is constructed assuming the isospin asymmetry quadratic approximation. It is employed to predict the pressure at twice saturation energy-density based only on nuclear-physics constraints, and we find it compatible with the one from the gravitational-wave community. To make our meta-analysis transparent, updated in the future, and to publicly share our results, the Python toolkit nucleardatapy is described and released here. Hence, this paper accompanies nucleardatapy, which simplifies access to nuclear-physics data, including theoretical calculations, experimental measurements, and astrophysical observations. This Python toolkit is designed to easily provide data for: (i) predictions for uniform matter (from microscopic or phenomenological approaches); (ii) correlation among nuclear properties induced by experimental and theoretical constraints; (iii) measurements for finite nuclei (nuclear chart, charge radii, neutron skins or nuclear incompressibilities, etc.) and hypernuclei (single particle energies); and (iv) astrophysical observations. This toolkit provides data in a unified format for easy comparison and provides new meta-analysis tools. It will be continuously developed, and we expect contributions from the community in our endeavor.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Leptonic cascade decays of a heavy Higgs boson through vectorlike leptons at the LHC

We demonstrate the potential of fully leptonic cascade decays of a heavy neutral Higgs boson through vectorlike leptons as a simultaneous probe for extended Higgs sectors and extra matter particles at the LHC. The processes we explore are unique in that their event topologies lead to di-boson-like leptonic final states with a lepton pair which does not reconstruct the mass of a gauge boson. By recasting existing $2\ell$ + $E^{\text{miss}}_{R}$ and $3/4\ell$ searches channels using run2 data from the LHC we obtain model independent bounds on the masses of heavy scalars and vectorlike leptons and use these results to explore future prospects at the HL-LHC. Our results can be directly applied to any kind of new physics scenarios sharing the final states and the event topology. For concreteness, we apply our results to a benchmark scenario: a two Higgs doublet model type-II augmented with vectorlike leptons. Remarkably, even with current data the sensitivity of our analysis shows a reach for masses of a heavy neutral Higgs and vectorlike leptons up to 2 TeV and 1.5 TeV, respectively. Even for low tan β ≳ 1, the analysis retains sensitivity to heavy Higgs masses slightly above 1 TeV. The future sensitivities at the HL-LHC extend the reach for heavy Higgses and new leptons to 2.7 TeV and 2 TeV, respectively.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

First data and preliminary experimental results from a new Doppler backscattering system on the MAST-U spherical tokamak

Abstract A new Doppler backscattering (DBS) system, consisting of Q-band and V-band, has been installed and achieved its first data on the MAST-U spherical tokamak. The Q-band and V-band have separate microwave source systems, but share the same optical front-end components. The Q-band and V-band sources simultaneously generate eight (34, 36, 38, 40, 42, 44, 46 and 48 GHz) and seven (52.5, 55, 57.5, 60, 62.5, 65 and 67.5 GHz) fixed frequency probe beams, respectively. These frequencies provide a large range of radial positions from the low-field-side edge plasma to the core, and possibly to the high-field-side edge, depending on the plasma conditions. The quasi-optical system consists of a remotely-tunable polarizer, a focusing lens and a remotely-steerable mirror. By steering the mirror, the system provides remote control of the probed density fluctuation wavenumber, and allow the launch angle to match the magnetic field. The range of accessible turbulence wavenumbers (k θ ) is reasonably large with normalized wavenumberk θ ρ s ranging from <0.5 to 9. The first data acquired by this DBS system is validated by comparing with the data from the other DBS system on MAST-U (introduced in ref. [21]). An example of measuring the velocity profile spanning from the edge to the center in a high-density plasma is presented, indicating the robust capabilities of the integrated Q-band and V-band DBS systems.

Instruments & Instrumentation↗
DOE OSTI2020

My vehicle is a data mine

In this talk we explore how analysis of vehicle data provides information of individual vehicle behaviors, information of other vehicles in the flow of traffic, and insights into the behavior of drivers. Over the last two decades traditional passenger vehicles have been transformed from integrated two-port electrical nodes to cyber-physical systems of communicating computational nodes whose individual state and control variables are shared on a standard controller area network (CAN) bus. As driver assistance systems have crept into vehicles as safety features, driver behaviors can be observed through analysis of the data streams on the CAN bus as these new nodes communicate with one another. The properties of these data streams, as well as architectures and approaches to gather the data, are important to consider when drawing conclusions on the relevance of the data in making decisions at varying levels of the information hierarchy. We will demonstrate several technical challenges associated with these data collection processes, as well as preliminary results that demonstrate application relevance of the data to behavior, traffic, and systems domains.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Quantification of Transition Scenario Simulations

This report documents the first collective attempt at developing and applying capabilities to quantify uncertainties, assess parametric sensitivities, and optimize multiple parameters and metrics in fuel cycle simulations generated by the SA&I Campaign. To do this, external codes that were designed to perform sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (SA&UQ) needed to be coupled to the SA&I Campaign’s nuclear fuel cycle simulators (NFCS). In FY20, two approaches were pursued: 1) coupling Cyclus to an ORNL-internal code called MOT (Metaheuristic Optimization Tool) and 2) coupling DYMOND to the opensource SA&UQ tool kit Dakota. The primary objective of having these NFCS/SA&UQ coupled capabilities is to better inform DOE-NE and other stakeholders on the results generated from the NFCS. For a given set of fuel cycle strategies, policies, and technology assumptions that make up a fuel cycle scenario, these NFCS have traditionally been used by the SA&I Campaign to provide quantitative answers in terms of year-by-year mass flows, infrastructure requirements, costs, etc. With these newly developed coupled capabilities, the SA&I Campaign can now efficiently simulate hundreds or thousands of these scenarios, sample large ranges of parameters and assumptions, and use the unique features of the SA&UQ tools to process the data. This enables providing answers with known and propagated uncertainties, determining the sensitivity of important metrics to different parameters and assumptions, quantifying how much fuel cycle and technology parameters impact each other, and producing optimized fuel cycle strategies for single and multiple variables. To demonstrate these new capabilities, the Cyclus/MOT was used to model several scenarios ranging from simple fleet retirements to transitions to advanced reactors. Specifically, for a transition scenario from LWRs to SFRs and advanced LWRs, uncertainty quantification, sensitivity analysis, and optimization studies were applied to cases involving single and multiple parameter (input) and single and multiple metric (output) variations. In addition, a similar transition scenario was modeled to demonstrate how to optimize the reprocessing capacity parameter to minimize two performance metrics while taking into account uncertainties from two other parameters. Lastly, a depletion module based on SCALE/ORIGEN was added in Cyclus to simulate the third scenario that was designed to quantify the impact of the modeling assumption that all LWR used nuclear fuel have the same burnup. The newly developed DYMOND/Dakota capability was also applied to a transition scenario from the existing fleet to small modular reactors and fast reactors. This particular scenario involves not only explicit isotopic depletion via ORIGEN-2, but also includes multirecycling and utilizing the criticality search feature to determine the fresh fuel composition of recycled fuel, a feature unique to the DYMOND NFCS. A large database of simulations were run with 4 main parameters that were sampled: start date of reprocessing, reprocessing capacity, energy demand growth rate, and advanced reactor share of the fleet. The 4 main metrics were uranium consumption, enrichment requirements, waste generation, and levelized cost of electricity using data from the Cost Basis Report. The demonstrated SA&UQ results include those that inform on how to choose parameters to avoid “failed” scenarios, Sobol’ indices that inform on the importance of various parameters individually and synergistically, and Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) studies that decompose parameter ranges into groups and informs on whether variations are statistically significant.

Feng, B.↗