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Methods for further minimizing the risk by making use of previous lidar observations were investigated. EOFs are likely to play an important role in these methods, and a procedure for extracting EOFs from data has been implemented, The new processing methods involving EOFs could range from extrapolation, as discussed, to more complicated statistical procedures for maintaining low unstart risk.
Lift-off acoustic environments generated by the future Ares I launch vehicle are assessed by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) acoustics team using several prediction tools. This acoustic environment is directly caused by the Ares I First Stage booster, powered by the five-segment Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRMV). The RSRMV is a larger-thrust derivative design from the currently used Space Shuttle solid rocket motor, the Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM). Lift-off acoustics is an integral part of the composite launch vibration environment affecting the Ares launch vehicle and must be assessed to help generate hardware qualification levels and ensure structural integrity of the vehicle during launch and lift-off. Available prediction tools that use free field noise source spectrums as a starting point for generation of lift-off acoustic environments are described in the monograph NASA SP-8072: "Acoustic Loads Generated by the Propulsion System." This monograph uses a reference database for free field noise source spectrums which consist of subscale rocket motor firings, oriented in horizontal static configurations. The phrase "subscale" is appropriate, since the thrust levels of rockets in the reference database are orders of magnitude lower than the current design thrust for the Ares launch family. Thus, extrapolation is needed to extend the various reference curves to match Ares-scale acoustic levels. This extrapolation process yields a subsequent amount of uncertainty added upon the acoustic environment predictions. As the Ares launch vehicle design schedule progresses, it is important to take every opportunity to lower prediction uncertainty and subsequently increase prediction accuracy. Never before in NASA s history has plume acoustics been measured for large scale solid rocket motors. Approximately twice a year, the RSRM prime vendor, ATK Launch Systems, static fires an assembled RSRM motor in a horizontal configuration at their test facility in Utah. The remaining RSRM static firings will take place on elevated terrain, with the nozzle exit plume being mostly undeflected and the landscape allowing placement of microphones within direct line of sight to the exhaust plume. These measurements will help assess the current extrapolation process by direct comparison between subscale and full scale solid rocket motor data.
Two basic rules (i.e. the pair identity and the smooth variation) applicable for H2O transitions involving high-J states have been discovered. The origins of these rules are the properties of the energy levels and wavefunctions of H2O states with the quantum number J above certain boundaries. As a result, for lines involving high-J states in individually defined groups, all their spectroscopic parameters (i.e. the transition wavenumber, intensity, pressure-broadened half-width, pressure-induced shift, and temperature exponent) must follow these rules. One can use these rules to screen spectroscopic data provided by databases and to identify possible errors. In addition, by using extrapolation methods within the individual groups, one is able to predict the spectroscopic parameters for lines in this group involving very high-J states. The latter are required in developing high-temperature molecular spectroscopic databases such as HITEMP.
A sonic boom wind tunnel test was conducted on a straight-line segmented leading edge (SLSLE) model in the NASA Langley 4- by 4- Foot Unitary Plan Wind Tunnel (UPWT). The purpose of the test was to determine whether accurate sonic boom measurements could be obtained while continuously moving the SLSLE model past a conical pressure probe. Sonic boom signatures were also obtained using the conventional move-pause data acquisition method for comparison. The continuous data acquisition approach allows for accurate signatures approximately 15 times faster than a move-pause technique. These successful results provide an incentive for future testing with greatly increased efficiency using the continuous model translation technique with the single probe to measure sonic boom signatures. Two widely used NASA codes, USM3D (Navier-Stokes) and CART3D-AERO (Euler, adjoint-based adaptive mesh), were used to compute off-body sonic boom pressure signatures of the SLSLE model at several different altitudes below the model at Mach 2.0. The computed pressure signatures compared well with wind tunnel data. The effect of the different altitude for signature extraction was evaluated by extrapolating the near field signatures to the ground and comparing pressure signatures and sonic boom loudness levels.
Calibration of standard sets of solar cell sub-cells is an important step to laboratory verification of on-orbit performance of new solar cell technologies. This paper, looks at the potential capabilities of a lightweight weather balloon payload for solar cell calibration. A 1500 gr latex weather balloon can lift a 2.7 kg payload to over 100,000 ft altitude, above 99% of the atmosphere. Data taken between atmospheric pressures of about 30 to 15 mbar may be extrapolated via the Langley Plot method to 0 mbar, i.e. AMO. This extrapolation, in principle, can have better than 0.1 % error. The launch costs of such a payload arc significantly less than the much larger, higher altitude balloons, or the manned flight facility. The low cost enables a risk tolerant approach to payload development. Demonstration of 1% standard deviation flight-to-flight variation is the goal of this project. This paper describes the initial concept of solar cell calibration payload, and reports initial test flight results. .
An accidental fire inside a spacecraft is an unlikely, but very real emergency situation that can easily have dire consequences. While much has been learned over the past 25+ years of dedicated research on flame behavior in microgravity, a quantitative understanding of the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of a realistic fire aboard a spacecraft is lacking. Virtually all combustion experiments in microgravity have been small-scale, by necessity (hardware limitations in ground-based facilities and safety concerns in space-based facilities). Large-scale, realistic fire experiments are unlikely for the foreseeable future (unlike in terrestrial situations). Therefore, NASA will have to rely on scale modeling, extrapolation of small-scale experiments and detailed numerical modeling to provide the data necessary for vehicle and safety system design. This paper presents the results of parallel efforts to better model the initiation, spread, detection and extinguishment of fires aboard spacecraft. The first is a detailed numerical model using the freely available Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS). FDS is a CFD code that numerically solves a large eddy simulation form of the Navier-Stokes equations. FDS provides a detailed treatment of the smoke and energy transport from a fire. The simulations provide a wealth of information, but are computationally intensive and not suitable for parametric studies where the detailed treatment of the mass and energy transport are unnecessary. The second path extends a model previously documented at ICES meetings that attempted to predict maximum survivable fires aboard space-craft. This one-dimensional model implies the heat and mass transfer as well as toxic species production from a fire. These simplifications result in a code that is faster and more suitable for parametric studies (having already been used to help in the hatch design of the Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, MPCV).
This paper develops techniques for predicting the uncertainty range of an output variable given input-output data. These models are called Interval Predictor Models (IPM) because they yield an interval valued function of the input. This paper develops IPMs having a radial basis structure. This structure enables the formal description of (i) the uncertainty in the models parameters, (ii) the predicted output interval, and (iii) the probability that a future observation would fall in such an interval. In contrast to other metamodeling techniques, this probabilistic certi cate of correctness does not require making any assumptions on the structure of the mechanism from which data are drawn. Optimization-based strategies for calculating IPMs having minimal spread while containing all the data are developed. Constraints for bounding the minimum interval spread over the continuum of inputs, regulating the IPMs variation/oscillation, and centering its spread about a target point, are used to prevent data over tting. Furthermore, we develop an approach for using expert opinion during extrapolation. This metamodeling technique is illustrated using a radiation shielding application for space exploration. In this application, we use IPMs to describe the error incurred in predicting the ux of particles resulting from the interaction between a high-energy incident beam and a target.
Experimental and numerical studies in support of developing the integrated Elastic–Perfectly Plastic (EPP) plus Simplified Model Test (SMT) design methodology, referred to as the EPP+SMT method, continued in FY 2023. This report focuses on the methods for extrapolating the EPP+SMT creep-fatigue life curves at long hold times and low strain ranges at elevated temperatures. In this work, the available uniaxial creep-fatigue failure data on Alloy 617 at temperatures of 950°C and 850°C were analyzed to provide a guidance on the development of the extrapolation method and the creep-fatigue failure criteria. A viscoplastic constitutive model for Alloy 617 was adopted to extrapolate the mechanical responses to low strain ranges and long hold times. A set of design curves of Alloy 617 at temperatures of 950°C, 850°C, and 800°C with tensile hold times of 1 hr, 100 hr, and 1,000 hr are developed. Furthermore, creep-fatigue testing on two notch specimen geometries, shallow-notch and sharp V-notch, on Alloy 617 was performed 950°C to understand the multiaxial stress relaxation behavior. The experimental and numerical results on the notch specimens were compared with those on the standard uniaxial smooth bar specimens. The effect of multi-axial stress state combined with elastic follow-up on the stress relaxation behavior was investigated in this report.
How much elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) contributes to the terrestrial carbon sink (NEP) is a debated issue (Friedlingstein et al., 1995; Field & Raupach, 2004; Schimel et al., 2015; Keenan et al., 2016; Huntzinger et al., 2017). The results from Free-Air CO2-Enrichment (FACE) experiments at the site scale show that eCO2 generally increase plant growth and net ecosystem CO2 uptake for a few years after exposure to eCO2, but the effects were highly variable across sites (Jastrow et al., 2005; De Graaff et al., 2006), which poses a challenge for scaling up these local observations. Here, we extract the simulated short-term responses of NEP to eCO2 from global carbon models using a substitute pulse-response approach, and compare them with site-scale responses from FACE experiments in temperate ecosystems. In 12 gridded terrestrial ecosystem models examined, the large-scale NEP sensitivity to eCO2 across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperate region is linearly related to the site-scale sensitivity across different ecosystems. We use this emergent relationship, together with the observed response to eCO2 in the FACE site-scale data to estimate a data constrained effect of eCO2 on the NH temperate NEP of 0.73 ± 0.22 Pg C yr-1 per hundred parts per million (ppm) of CO2 increase during the past five decades. This is 26% higher than the mean of the model ensemble. Among the models, those with carbon-nitrogen interactions underestimate the sensitivity of NEP to eCO2, suggesting overly strong nitrogen-limitations on carbon uptake. We further identify that the NEP sensitivity to eCO2 at NH temperate scale is linearly correlated with that at global scale across the models. Extrapolating the constrained NH eCO2 effect to the global terrestrial carbon sink provides an estimate of 4.1 ± 1.5 Pg C yr-1 [100 ppm]-1. Large uncertainties remain regarding the global response broadly inferred from temperate FACE data, due to the lack of observations in boreal and tropical regions, emphasizing the importance of deploying new FACE experiments in those regions.
The risks of late effects from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPE) are potentially a limitation to long-term space travel. The late effects of highest concern have significant lethality including cancer, effects to the central nervous system (CNS), and circulatory diseases (CD). For cancer and CD the use of age and gender specific models with uncertainty assessments based on human epidemiology data for low LET radiation combined with relative biological effectiveness factors (RBEs) and dose- and dose-rate reduction effectiveness factors (DDREF) to extrapolate these results to space radiation exposures is considered the current "state-of-the-art". The revised NASA Space Risk Model (NSRM-2014) is based on recent radio-epidemiology data for cancer and CD, however a key feature of the NSRM-2014 is the formulation of particle fluence and track structure based radiation quality factors for solid cancer and leukemia risk estimates, which are distinct from the ICRP quality factors, and shown to lead to smaller uncertainties in risk estimates. Many persons exposed to radiation on earth as well as astronauts are life-time never-smokers, which is estimated to significantly modify radiation cancer and CD risk estimates. A key feature of the NASA radiation protection model is the classification of radiation workers by smoking history in setting dose limits. Possible qualitative differences between GCR and low LET radiation increase uncertainties and are not included in previous risk estimates. Two important qualitative differences are emerging from research studies. The first is the increased lethality of tumors observed in animal models compared to low LET radiation or background tumors. The second are Non- Targeted Effects (NTE), which include bystander effects and genomic instability, which has been observed in cell and animal models of cancer risks. NTE's could lead to significant changes in RBE and DDREF estimates for GCR particles, and the potential effectiveness of radiation mitigator's. The NSRM- 2014 approaches to model radiation quality dependent lethality and NTE's will be described. CNS effects include both early changes that may occur during long space missions and late effects such as Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD effects 50% of the population above age 80-yr, is a degenerative disease that worsens with time after initial onset leading to death, and has no known cure. AD is difficult to detect at early stages and the small number of low LET epidemiology studies undertaken have not identified an association with low dose radiation. However experimental studies in mice suggest GCR may lead to early onset AD. We discuss modeling approaches to consider mechanisms whereby radiation would lead to earlier onset of occurrence of AD. Biomarkers of AD include amyloid beta (A(Beta)) plaques, and neurofibrillary tangles (NFT) made up of aggregates of the hyperphosphorylated form of the micro-tubule associated, tau protein. Related markers include synaptic degeneration, dentritic spine loss, and neuronal cell loss through apoptosis. Radiation may affect these processes by causing oxidative stress, aberrant signaling following DNA damage, and chronic neuroinflammation. Cell types to be considered in multi-scale models are neurons, astrocytes, and microglia. We developed biochemical and cell kinetics models of DNA damage signaling related to glycogen synthase kinase-3(Beta) (GSK3(Beta)) and neuroinflammation, and considered multi-scale modeling approaches to develop computer simulations of cell interactions and their relationships to A(Beta) plaques and NFTs. Comparison of model results to experimental data for the age specific development of A(Beta) plaques in transgenic mice will be discussed.
The available data on middle-stage research compressors operating near design point are used to derive simple empirical models for the spanwise variation of three-dimensional viscous loss coefficients for middle-stage axial compressor blading. The models make it possible to quickly estimate the total loss and deviation across the blade span when the three-dimensional distribution is superimposed on the two-dimensional variation calculated for each blade element. It is noted that extrapolated estimates should be used with caution since the correlations have been derived from a limited data base.
Ecological risk assessment (ERA) is charged with assessing the likelihood a chemical will have adverse environmental or ecological effects. When assessing the risk of a potential contaminant to biological organisms, ecologists are most concerned with the sustainability of populations of organisms, rather than protecting every individual. However, ERA most commonly relies on data on the effect of a potential contaminant on individuals because these experiments are more feasible than costly population-level exposures. In this work, we address the challenge of extrapolating these individual-level results to predict population-level effects. Previous per-capita population growth rate estimates calculated from individual-level exposures of Daphnia pulicaria to silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) at different food rations predict a critical daily food requirement for daphnid populations exposed to 200 μg/L AgNPs to avoid extinction. To test this, we exposed daphnid populations to the same AgNP concentration at three different food inputs, with the lowest ration close to the extinction threshold predicted from data on individuals. The two populations with the higher food inputs persisted, and the population with the lowest food input went extinct after 50 days but did persist through two generations. Further, we demonstrate that we can extrapolate between these levels of biological organization by parameterizing an individual-level biomass model with data on individuals’ response to AgNPs and using these parameters to predict the outcome for control and AgNP-exposed populations. Key to successful extrapolation is careful modeling of temporal changes in resource density, driven by both the experimental protocols and feedback from the consumer. The implication for ecotoxicology is that estimates of extinction thresholds based on studies of individuals may be reliable predictors of population outcomes, but only with careful treatment of resource dynamics.
Observations of a small flare are presented using data from the Harvard spectroheliometer on Skylab. The event is discussed in terms of the magnetic structure of the active region as deduced from the EUV observations and from field line extrapolations. The role of emerging flux in the initial flare brightenings is emphasized. A detailed model of one loop is deduced using the EUV data. This self-consistent model indicates initial heating of the loop modeled near its top, and mass flow into the cool core of the loop, with matter preferentially concentrating in a few distinct knots along the loop. Implications for theories of the flare process are discussed.
As part of the SAFARI-2000 campaign, additional launches of ozonesondes were made at Irene, South Africa and at Lusaka, Zambia. These represent campaign augmentations to the SHADOZ database described in this paper. This network of 10 southern hemisphere tropical and subtropical stations, designated the Southern Hemisphere ADditional OZonesondes (SHADOZ) project and established from operational sites, provided over 1000 profiles from ozonesondes and radiosondes during the period 1998-2000. (Since that time, two more stations, one in southern Africa, have joined SHADOZ). Archived data are available at: http://code9l6.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data-services/shadoz>. Uncertainties and accuracies within the SHADOZ ozone data set are evaluated by analyzing: (1) imprecisions in stratospheric ozone profiles and in methods of extrapolating ozone above balloon burst; (2) comparisons of column-integrated total ozone from sondes with total ozone from the Earth-Probe/TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) satellite and ground-based instruments; (3) possible biases from station-to-station due to variations in ozonesonde characteristics. The key results are: (1) Ozonesonde precision is 5%; (2) Integrated total ozone column amounts from the sondes are in good agreement (2-10%) with independent measurements from ground-based instruments at five SHADOZ sites and with overpass measurements from the TOMS satellite (version 7 data). (3) Systematic variations in TOMS-sonde offsets and in groundbased-sonde offsets from station to station reflect biases in sonde technique as well as in satellite retrieval. Discrepancies are present in both stratospheric and tropospheric ozone. (4) There is evidence for a zonal wave-one pattern in total and tropospheric ozone, but not in stratospheric ozone.
Operating structural components experience complex loading conditions resulting in 3D stress states. Current design practice estimates multiaxial creep rupture life by mapping a general state of stress to a uniaxial creep rupture correlation using effective stress measures. The data supporting the development of effective stress measures are nearly always only uniaxial and biaxial, as 3D creep rupture tests are not widely available. This limitation means current effective stress measures must extrapolate from 2D to 3D stress states, potentially introducing extrapolation error. In this work, we use a physics-based, crystal plasticity finite element model to simulate uniaxial, biaxial, and triaxial creep rupture. Here, we use the virtual dataset to assess the accuracy of current and novel effective stress measures in extrapolating from 2D to 3D stresses and also explore how the predictive accuracy of the effective stress measures might change if experimental 3D rupture data was available. We confirm these conclusions, based on simulation data, against multiaxial creep rupture experimental data for several materials, drawn from the literature. The results of the virtual experiments show that calibrating effective stress measures using triaxial test data would significantly improve accuracy and that some effective stress measures are more accurate than others, particularly for highly triaxial stress states. Results obtained using experimental data confirm the numerical findings and suggest that a unified effective stress measure should include an explicit dependence on the first stress invariant, the maximum tensile principal stress, and the von Mises stress.
We present the discovery, classification, and extensive panchromatic (from radio to X-ray) follow-up observations of PTF11qcj, a supernova (SN) discovered by the Palomar Transient Factory (PTF). Our observations with the Karl G. Jansky Very Large Array show that this event is radio-loud: PTF11qcj reached a radio peak luminosity comparable to that of the famous gamma-ray-burst-associated SN 1998bw (L (sub 5 gigahertz) approximates 10 (sup 29) ergs per second per hertz). PTF11qcj is also detected in X-rays with the Chandra Observatory, and in the infrared band with Spitzer. Our multi-wavelength analysis probes the SN interaction with circumstellar material. The radio observations suggest a progenitor mass-loss rate of approximately 10 (sup -4) the mass of the sun per year times (v (sub omega) divided by 1000 kilometers per second), and a velocity of approximately 0.3-0.5 c (the speed of light in a vacuum) for the fastest moving ejecta (at around 10 days after explosion). However, these estimates are derived assuming the simplest model of SN ejecta interacting with a smooth circumstellar wind, and do not account for possible inhomogeneities in the medium and asphericity of the explosion. The radio data show deviations from such a simple model, as well as a late-time re-brightening. The X-ray flux from PTF11qcj is compatible with the high-frequency extrapolation of the radio synchrotron emission (within the large uncertainties). A light echo from pre-existing dust is in agreement with our infrared data. Our pre-explosion data from the PTF suggest that a precursor eruption of absolute magnitude M (sub r) approximately equal to -13 mag may have occurred approximately 2.5 years prior to the SN explosion. Overall, PTF11qcj fits the expectations from the explosion of a Wolf-Rayet star. Precursor eruptions may be a feature characterizing the final pre-explosion evolution of such stars.
Spacecraft control centers have evolved from dedicated, single-mission or single mission-type support to multi-mission, service-oriented support for operating a variety of mission types. At the same time, available money for projects is shrinking and competition for new missions is increasing. These factors drive the need for an accurate and flexible model to support estimating service costs for new or extended missions; the cost model in turn drives the need for an accurate and efficient approach to service cost analysis. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides operations services to a variety of customers around the world. HOSC customers range from launch vehicle test flights; to International Space Station (ISS) payloads; to small, short duration missions; and has included long duration flagship missions. The HOSC recently completed a detailed analysis of service costs as part of the development of a complete service cost model. The cost analysis process required the team to address a number of issues. One of the primary issues involves the difficulty of reverse engineering individual mission costs in a highly efficient multi-mission environment, along with a related issue of the value of detailed metrics or data to the cost model versus the cost of obtaining accurate data. Another concern is the difficulty of balancing costs between missions of different types and size and extrapolating costs to different mission types. The cost analysis also had to address issues relating to providing shared, cloud-like services in a government environment, and then assigning an uncertainty or risk factor to cost estimates that are based on current technology, but will be executed using future technology. Finally the cost analysis needed to consider how to validate the resulting cost models taking into account the non-homogeneous nature of the available cost data and the decreasing flight rate. This paper presents the issues encountered during the HOSC cost analysis process, and the associated lessons learned. These lessons can be used when planning for a new multi-mission operations center or in the transformation from a dedicated control center to multi-center operations, as an aid in defining processes that support future cost analysis and estimation. The lessons can also be used by mature service-oriented, multi-mission control centers to streamline or refine their cost analysis process.
Spacecraft control centers have evolved from dedicated, single-mission or single missiontype support to multi-mission, service-oriented support for operating a variety of mission types. At the same time, available money for projects is shrinking and competition for new missions is increasing. These factors drive the need for an accurate and flexible model to support estimating service costs for new or extended missions; the cost model in turn drives the need for an accurate and efficient approach to service cost analysis. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) provides operations services to a variety of customers around the world. HOSC customers range from launch vehicle test flights; to International Space Station (ISS) payloads; to small, short duration missions; and has included long duration flagship missions. The HOSC recently completed a detailed analysis of service costs as part of the development of a complete service cost model. The cost analysis process required the team to address a number of issues. One of the primary issues involves the difficulty of reverse engineering individual mission costs in a highly efficient multimission environment, along with a related issue of the value of detailed metrics or data to the cost model versus the cost of obtaining accurate data. Another concern is the difficulty of balancing costs between missions of different types and size and extrapolating costs to different mission types. The cost analysis also had to address issues relating to providing shared, cloud-like services in a government environment, and then assigning an uncertainty or risk factor to cost estimates that are based on current technology, but will be executed using future technology. Finally the cost analysis needed to consider how to validate the resulting cost models taking into account the non-homogeneous nature of the available cost data and the decreasing flight rate. This paper presents the issues encountered during the HOSC cost analysis process, and the associated lessons learned. These lessons can be used when planning for a new multi-mission operations center or in the transformation from a dedicated control center to multi-center operations, as an aid in defining processes that support future cost analysis and estimation. The lessons can also be used by mature serviceoriented, multi-mission control centers to streamline or refine their cost analysis process.