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At least 811 records · Page 45

Assessment of Storm-Associated Precipitation and Its Extremes Using Observational Data Sets and Climate Model Short-Range Hindcasts

Heavy precipitation, often associated with weather phenomena such as tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones (ETCs), atmospheric rivers (ARs), and mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), can cause significant socio-economic loss. Here, in this study, we apply atmospheric feature trackers to quantify the contributions of these storm types in observational data sets and climate model short-range hindcasts. We generate a global hourly storm data set at 0.25° spatial resolution covering 2006–2020, based on the tracking results from TempestExtremes and Python FLEXible object TRacKeR. Our analyses show that these four storm types account for 67% of global annual mean precipitation and 82% of top 1% precipitation extremes, with MCSs mainly over the tropics, and ARs and ETCs over the midlatitudes. The percentage of precipitation contributions from these storms also show strong seasonality over many geographical locations. We further apply the tracking results to the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) short-range hindcasts and evaluate how well these storms are simulated. The evaluation show that E3SM, with ∼1° resolution, significantly underestimates storm-associated precipitation totals and extremes, especially for MCSs in the tropics. Our analysis also suggests that model fails to capture the correct mean diurnal phases and amplitude of MCS precipitation. This phenomenon-based approach provides a better understanding of precipitation characteristics and can lead to enhanced model evaluation by revealing underlying problems in model physics related to precipitation processes associated with the heavy-precipitating storms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Parameter Estimation Scheme for Multiscale Kalman Smoother (MKS) Algorithm Used in Precipitation Data Fusion

A new approach is presented in this paper to effectively obtain parameter estimations for the Multiscale Kalman Smoother (MKS) algorithm. This new approach has demonstrated promising potentials in deriving better data products based on data of different spatial scales and precisions. Our new approach employs a multi-objective (MO) parameter estimation scheme (called MO scheme hereafter), rather than using the conventional maximum likelihood scheme (called ML scheme) to estimate the MKS parameters. Unlike the ML scheme, the MO scheme is not simply built on strict statistical assumptions related to prediction errors and observation errors, rather, it directly associates the fused data of multiple scales with multiple objective functions in searching best parameter estimations for MKS through optimization. In the MO scheme, objective functions are defined to facilitate consistency among the fused data at multiscales and the input data at their original scales in terms of spatial patterns and magnitudes. The new approach is evaluated through a Monte Carlo experiment and a series of comparison analyses using synthetic precipitation data. Our results show that the MKS fused precipitation performs better using the MO scheme than that using the ML scheme. Particularly, improvements are significant compared to that using the ML scheme for the fused precipitation associated with fine spatial resolutions. This is mainly due to having more criteria and constraints involved in the MO scheme than those included in the ML scheme. The weakness of the original ML scheme that blindly puts more weights onto the data associated with finer resolutions is overcome in our new approach.

multiscale↗

Impulsive 2-10 keV solar electron events not associated with flares

Data from the ISEE 3 satellite reveal a class of impulsive solar electron events with no measurable increase in flux above 10-20 keV. The flux histories and angular distributions indicate that the electrons propagate through interplanetary space with little or no scattering. The smooth extension of the power-law energy spectra down to the limit of the observations at 2 keV indicates that the electrons are accelerated at altitudes greater than 0.5 solar radii in the solar corona. Although these events occur more frequently than any other type of impulsive solar particle event observed, no correlation is found with flares or flare-related activity. However, there is a close correlation with low-frequency type III radio bursts.

Potter, D. W.↗

A Novel Photonic Clock and Carrier Recovery Device

As data communication rates climb toward ten Gb/s, clock recovery and synchronization become more difficult, if not impossible, using conventional electronic circuits. We present in this article experimental results of a high speed clock and carrier recovery using a novel device called a photonic oscillator that we recently developed in our laboratory. This device is capable of recovering clock signals up to 70 GHz. To recover the clock, the incoming data is injected into the photonic oscillator either through the optical injection port or the electrical injection port. The free running photonic oscillator is tuned to oscillate at a nominal frequency equal to the clock frequency of the incoming data. With the injection of the data, the photonic oscillator will be quickly locked to clock frequency of the data stream while rejecting other frequency components associated with the data. Consequently, the output of the locked photonic oscillator is a continuous periodical wave synchronized with the incoming data or simply the recovered clock. We have demonstrated a clock to spur ratio of more than 60 dB of the recovered clock using this technique. Similar to the clock recovery, the photonic oscillator can be used to recover a high frequency carrier degraded by noise and an improvement of about 50 dB in signal-to-noise ratio was demonstrated. The photonic oscillator has both electrical and optical inputs and outputs and can be directly interfaced with a photonic system without signal conversion. In addition to clock and carrier recovery, the photonic oscillator can also be used for (1) stable high frequency clock signal generation, (2) frequency multiplication, (3) square wave and comb frequency generation, and (4) photonic phase locked loop.

Yao, X. Steve↗

Wind Tunnel Balance Calibration: Are 1,000,000 Data Points Enough?

Measurement systems are typically calibrated based on standard practices established by a metrology standards laboratory, for example the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST), or dictated by an organization's metrology manual. Therefore, the calibration is designed and executed according to an established procedure. However, for many aerodynamic research measurement systems a universally accepted standard, traceable approach does not exist. Therefore, a strategy for how to develop a calibration protocol is left to the developer or user to define based on experience and recommended practice in their respective industry. Wind tunnel balances are one such measurement system. Many different calibration systems, load schedules and procedures have been developed for balances with little consensus on a recommended approach. Especially lacking is guidance the number of calibration data points needed. Regrettably, the number of data points tends to be correlated with the perceived quality of the calibration. Often, the number of data points is associated with ones ability to generate the data rather than by a defined need in support of measurement objectives. Hence the title of the paper was conceived to challenge recent observations in the wind tunnel balance community that shows an ever increasing desire for more data points per calibration absent of guidance to determine when there are enough. This paper presents fundamental concepts and theory to aid in the development of calibration procedures for wind tunnel balances and provides a framework that is generally applicable to the characterization and calibration of other measurement systems. Questions that need to be answered are for example: What constitutes an adequate calibration? How much data are needed in the calibration? How good is the calibration? This paper will assist a practitioner in answering these questions by presenting an underlying theory on how to evaluate a calibration based on objective measures. This will enable the developer and user to design calibrations with quantified performance in terms of their capability to meet the user's objectives and a basis for comparing existing calibrations that may have been developed in an ad-hoc manner.

Rhew, Ray D.↗

HMI Data Driven Magnetohydrodynamic Model Predicted Active Region Photospheric Heating Rates: Their Scale Invariant, Flare Like Power Law Distributions, and Their Possible Association With Flares

A data driven, near photospheric, 3 D, non-force free magnetohydrodynamic model pre- dicts time series of the complete current density, and the resistive heating rate Q at the photosphere in neutral line regions (NLRs) of 14 active regions (ARs). The model is driven by time series of the magnetic field B observed by the Helioseismic & Magnetic Imager on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. Spurious Doppler periods due to SDO orbital motion are filtered out of the time series for B in every AR pixel. Errors in B due to these periods can be significant. The number of occurrences N(q) of values of Q > or = q for each AR time series is found to be a scale invariant power law distribution, N(Q) / Q−s, above an AR dependent threshold value of Q, where 0.3952 < or = s < or = 0.5298 with mean and standard deviation of 0.4678 and 0.0454, indicating little variation between ARs. Observations show that the number of occurrences N(E) of coronal flares with a total energy released > or = E obeys the same type of distribution, N(E) / E−S, above an AR dependent threshold value of E, with 0.38 < or approx. S < or approx. 0.60, also with little variation among ARs. Within error margins the ranges of s and S are nearly identical. This strong similarity between N(Q) and N(E) suggests a fundamental connection between the process that drives coronal flares and the process that drives photospheric NLR heating rates in ARs. In addition, results suggest it is plausible that spikes in Q, several orders of magnitude above background values, are correlated with times of the subsequent occurrence of M or X flares.

Goodman, Michael L.↗

HMI Data Driven Magnetohydrodynamic Model Predicted Active Region Photospheric Heating Rates: Their Scale Invariant, Flare Like Power Law Distributions, and Their Possible Association With Flares

A data driven, near photospheric, 3 D, non-force free magnetohydrodynamic model predicts time series of the complete current density, and the resistive heating rate Q at the photosphere in neutral line regions (NLRs) of 14 active regions (ARs). The model is driven by time series of the magnetic field B observed by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. Spurious Doppler periods due to SDO orbital motion are filtered out of the time series for B in every AR pixel. Errors in B due to these periods can be significant. The number of occurrences N(q) of values of Q > or = q for each AR time series is found to be a scale invariant power law distribution, N(Q) / Q−s, above an AR dependent threshold value of Q, where 0.3952 < or = s < or = 0.5298 with mean and standard deviation of 0.4678 and 0.0454, indicating little variation between ARs. Observations show that the number of occurrences N(E) of coronal flares with a total energy released > or = E obeys the same type of distribution, N(E) / E−S, above an AR dependent threshold value of E, with 0.38 < or approx. S < or approx. 0.60, also with little variation among ARs. Within error margins the ranges of s and S are nearly identical. This strong similarity between N(Q) and N(E) suggests a fundamental connection between the process that drives coronal flares and the process that drives photospheric NLR heating rates in ARs. In addition, results suggest it is plausible that spikes in Q, several orders of magnitude above background values, are correlated with times of the subsequent occurrence of M or X flares.

Goodman, Michael L.↗

Microburst characteristics determined from 1988-1991 TDWR testbed measurements

This paper presents some recent results germane to airborne windshear system design and certification. We first discuss the data analysis procedure and the associated caveats. The relative frequency, severity, and duration of microburst hazards at the various locations is important for determining the tradeoffs between safety and operational impact of false alerts which are encompassed in detection system thresholds. We then consider radar/lidar design issues such as reflective in microbursts and the vertical structure of outflows. Finally, we provide recent surface thermodynamic data associated with microbursts.

Biron, Paul J.↗

Delimiting the cryptic diversity and host preferences of Sycophila parasitoid wasps associated with oak galls using phylogenomic data

Abstract Cryptic species diversity is a major challenge regarding the species‐rich community of parasitoids attacking oak gall wasps due to a high degree of sexual dimorphism, morphological plasticity, small size and poorly known biology. As such, we know very little about the number of species present, nor the evolutionary forces responsible for generating this diversity. One hypothesis is that trait diversity in the gall wasps, including the morphology of the galls they induce, has evolved in response to selection imposed by the parasitoid community, with reciprocal selection driving diversification of the parasitoids. Using a rare, continental‐scale data set of Sycophila parasitoid wasps reared from 44 species of cynipid galls from 18 species of oak across the USA, we combined mitochondrial DNA barcodes, ultraconserved elements (UCEs), morphological and natural history data to delimit putative species. Using these results, we generate the first large‐scale assessment of ecological specialization and host association in this species‐rich group, with implications for evolutionary ecology and biocontrol. We find most Sycophila target specific subsets of available cynipid host galls with similar morphologies, and generally attack larger galls. Our results suggest that parasitoid wasps such as Sycophila have adaptations allowing them to exploit particular host trait combinations, while hosts with contrasting traits are resistant to attack. These findings support the tritrophic niche concept for the structuring of plant–herbivore–parasitoid communities.

Zhang, Yuanmeng M.↗

Improved quality metrics for association and reproducibility in chromatin accessibility data using mutual information

Correlation metrics are widely utilized in genomics analysis and often implemented with little regard to assumptions of normality, homoscedasticity, and independence of values. This is especially true when comparing values between replicated sequencing experiments that probe chromatin accessibility, such as assays for transposase-accessible chromatin via sequencing (ATAC-seq). Such data can possess several regions across the human genome with little to no sequencing depth and are thus non-normal with a large portion of zero values. Despite distributed use in the epigenomics field, few studies have evaluated and benchmarked how correlation and association statistics behave across ATAC-seq experiments with known differences or the effects of removing specific outliers from the data. Here, we developed a computational simulation of ATAC-seq data to elucidate the behavior of correlation statistics and to compare their accuracy under set conditions of reproducibility. Using these simulations, we monitored the behavior of several correlation statistics, including the Pearson’s R and Spearman’s ρ coefficients as well as Kendall’s τ and Top–Down correlation. We also test the behavior of association measures, including the coefficient of determination R 2 , Kendall’s W, and normalized mutual information. Our experiments reveal an insensitivity of most statistics, including Spear man’s ρ, Kendall’s τ, and Kendall’s W, to increasing differences between simulated ATAC-seq replicates. The removal of co-zeros (regions lacking mapped sequenced reads) between simulated experiments greatly improves the estimates of correlation and association. After removing co-zeros, the R 2 coefficient and normalized mutual information display the best performance, having a closer one-to-one relationship with the known portion of shared, enhanced loci between simulated replicates. When comparing values between experimental ATAC-seq data using a random forest model, mutual information best predicts ATAC-seq replicate relationships. Collectively, this study demonstrates how measures of correlation and association can behave in epigenomics experiments. We provide improved strategies for quantifying relationships in these increasingly prevalent and important chromatin accessibility assays.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Analysis of a Shock-Associated Noise Prediction Model Using Measured Jet Far-Field Noise Data

A code for predicting supersonic jet broadband shock-associated noise was assessed using a database containing noise measurements of a jet issuing from a convergent nozzle. The jet was operated at 24 conditions covering six fully expanded Mach numbers with four total temperature ratios. To enable comparisons of the predicted shock-associated noise component spectra with data, the measured total jet noise spectra were separated into mixing noise and shock-associated noise component spectra. Comparisons between predicted and measured shock-associated noise component spectra were used to identify deficiencies in the prediction model. Proposed revisions to the model, based on a study of the overall sound pressure levels for the shock-associated noise component of the measured data, a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters with emphasis on the definition of the convection velocity parameter, and a least-squares fit of the predicted to the measured shock-associated noise component spectra, resulted in a new definition for the source strength spectrum in the model. An error analysis showed that the average error in the predicted spectra was reduced by as much as 3.5 dB for the revised model relative to the average error for the original model.

Dahl, Milo D.↗

Uncertainty in inventories for life cycle assessment: State‐of‐the‐art, challenges, and new technologies

Uncertainty is a critical factor that can hinder the quality and potential applications of life cycle assessment (LCA) results. A prominent source of uncertainty stems from the life cycle inventory (LCI) data. Various methodologies exist to estimate the uncertainty associated with LCI data, primarily based on the widely used structured pedigree matrix approach or the computationally intensive Monte Carlo simulation. This perspective review explores how new technologies (e.g., computational algorithms and data collection methods) from data science and related fields can contribute to identifying, quantifying, and reducing uncertainty in LCI modeling. A brief overview of the sources of uncertainty in LCI modeling and how they are addressed in current LCA practice is provided. Additionally, several new technologies are identified, and the potential benefits of their implementation in reducing uncertainties in LCI modeling are discussed. This perspective review concludes by identifying potential areas that require further development for these technologies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Geologic mapping using integrated AIRSAR, AVIRIS, and TIMS data

The multi-sensor aircraft campaign called the 'Geologic Remote Sensing Field Experiment' (GRSFE), conducted during 1989 in the southwestern United States, collected multiple airborne remote sensing data sets and associated field and laboratory measurements. The GRSFE airborne data sets used in this study include the airborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR), the Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS), and the Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS). Each sensor's unique characteristics were used for this study in a combined analysis scheme for geologic mapping. AIRSAR was used to map structures and landforms, AVIRIS was used to map mineralogy, and TIMS was used to map lithology. Visual data integration using IHS transforms and combined numerical analysis using derived geophysical and geologic parameters with 'multispectral' techniques resulted in improved geologic mapping over that possible using each data set individually.

Kruse, Fred A.↗

Comparison of Daily Total Precipitable Water From Satellite and Model Reanalysis Fields

Previous studies have shown that there is fairly good agreement between the monthly values of total precipitable water (TPW) from the NVAP data set, a multi satellite and radiosonde merged data product, and the NCEP reanalysis TPW data. However, there are regions and time periods where significant differences between the data sets are found in the monthly mean TPW time series and period of record trends. To better understand these differences seen in the monthly data values, the daily mean TPW data are examined. Possible contributions to the TPW differences such as data quality of the individual NVAP data set components associated with missing or irregular daily values are addressed. Also, effects associated with the weighting of the individual NVAP data set components to form a merged product are considered. The daily variations in TPW exhibited by each data set are also quantified and compared between the data sets.

Jedlovec, Gary J.↗

Bootstrap bounds on closed Einstein manifolds

A compact Riemannian manifold is associated with geometric data given by the eigenvalues of various Laplacian operators on the manifold and the triple overlap integrals of the corresponding eigenmodes. This geometric data must satisfy certain consistency conditions that follow from associativity and the completeness of eigenmodes. We show that it is possible to obtain nontrivial bounds on the geometric data of closed Einstein manifolds by using semidefinite programming to study these consistency conditions, in analogy to the conformal bootstrap bounds on conformal field theories. These bootstrap bounds translate to constraints on the tree-level masses and cubic couplings of Kaluza-Klein modes in theories with compact extra dimensions. We show that in some cases the bounds are saturated by known manifolds.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Smart Sensors' Role in Integrated System Health Management

During the last decade, there has been a major effort in the aerospace industry to reduce the cost per pond of payload and become competitive in the international market. Competition from Europe, Japan, and China has reduced this cost to almost a third from 1990 to 2000. This cost has leveled in recent years to an average price of around $12,000/pound of payload. One of NASA's goals is to promote the development of technologies to reduce this cost by a factor of 10 or more Exploration of space, specially manned exploration missions, involves very complex launch and flight vehicles, associated ground support systems, and extensive human support during all phases of the mission. When considering the Space Shuttle Program, we can see that vehicle and ground support systems' processing, operation, and maintenance represent a large percentage of the program cost and time. Reducing operating, processing and maintenance costs will greatly reduce the cost of Exploration programs. The Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) concept is one of the technologies that will help reduce these operating, processing and maintenance costs. ISHM is an integrated health monitoring system applicable to both flight and ground systems. It automatically and autonomously acquires information from sensors and actuators and processes that information using the ISHM-embedded knowledge. As a result, it establishes the health of the system based on the acquired information and its prior knowledge. When this concept is fully implemented, ISHM systems shall be able to perform failure prediction and remediation before actual hard failures occurs, preventing its costly consequences. Data sources, sensors, and their associated data acquisition systems, constitute the foundation of the system. A smart sensing architecture is required to support the acquisition of reliable, high quality data, required by the ISHM. A thorough definition of the smart sensor architectures, their embedded diagnostic agents, and communication protocols need to be established and standardized to allow the embedding and exchange of health information among sensors and ISHM. This workshop is aimed to foster the exchange of ideas and lessons learned between government, industry and academia to aid in the establishment of ISHM (and smart sensors) standards and guidelines as well as to identify present technology gaps that will have to be overcome to successfully achieve this goal.

Perotti, Jose M.↗

Analysis of a Shock-Associated Noise Prediction Model Using Measured Jet Far-Field Noise Data

A code for predicting supersonic jet broadband shock-associated noise was assessed us- ing a database containing noise measurements of a jet issuing from a convergent nozzle. The jet was operated at 24 conditions covering six fully expanded Mach numbers with four total temperature ratios. To enable comparisons of the predicted shock-associated noise component spectra with data, the measured total jet noise spectra were separated into mixing noise and shock-associated noise component spectra. Comparisons between predicted and measured shock-associated noise component spectra were used to identify de ciencies in the prediction model. Proposed revisions to the model, based on a study of the overall sound pressure levels for the shock-associated noise component of the mea- sured data, a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters with emphasis on the de nition of the convection velocity parameter, and a least-squares t of the predicted to the mea- sured shock-associated noise component spectra, resulted in a new de nition for the source strength spectrum in the model. An error analysis showed that the average error in the predicted spectra was reduced by as much as 3.5 dB for the revised model relative to the average error for the original model.

Dahl, Milo D.↗

An estimating formula for ion-atom association rates in gases

A simple estimating formula is derived for rate coefficients of three-body ion atom association in gases and compare its predictions to experimental data on ion association and three-body radiative charge transfer reactions of singly- and doubly-charged rare-gas ions. The formula appears to reproduce most experimental data quite well. It may be useful for estimating the rates of reactions that have not been studied in the laboratory.

Chatterjee, B. K.↗