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At least 811 records · Page 45

Measuring very low radiation doses in PTFE for nuclear forensic enrichment reconstruction

Every country that has made nuclear weapons has used uranium enrichment to do so. Despite the centrality of this technology to international security, there is still no reliable physical marker of past enrichment in the open literature that can be used to perform forensic verification of historically produced weapons on gas centrifuges. We show that the extremely low radioactivity from uranium alpha emissions during enrichment leaves detectable and irreversible calorimetric signatures in the common enrichment gasket material PTFE, allowing for historical reconstruction of past enrichment activities at a sensitivity better than one weapon’s quantity of highly enriched uranium. Fast scanning calorimetry also enables the measurement of recrystallization enthalpies of sequentially microtomed slices, confirming the magnitude and the type of radiation exposure while also providing detection of tampering and a method for analyzing field samples useful for treaty verification. Furthermore, this work opens the door for common items to be turned into precise dosimeters to detect the past presence of radioactivity, nuclear materials, and related activities with high confidence.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

The economic value of photovoltaic performance loss mitigation in electricity spot markets

Photovoltaic (PV) performance is affected by reversible and irreversible losses. These can typically be mitigated through responsive and proactive operations and maintenance (O&M) activities. However, to generate profit, the cost of O&M must be lower than the value of the recovered electricity. This value depends both on the amount of recovered energy and on the electricity prices, which can vary significantly over time in spot markets. The present work investigates the impact of the electricity price variability on the PV profitability and on the related O&M activities in Italy, Portugal, and Spain. Here, it is found that the PV revenues varied by 1.6 × to 1.8 × within the investigated countries in the last 5 years. Moreover, forecasts predict higher average prices in the current decade compared to the previous one. These will increase the future PV revenues by up to 60% by 2030 compared to their 2015–2020 mean values. These higher revenues will make more funds available for better maintenance and for higher quality components, potentially leading to even higher energy yield and profits. Linearly growing or constant price assumptions cannot fully reproduce these expected price trends. Furthermore, significant price fluctuations can lead to unexpected scenarios and alter the predictions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Innovation in complementary energy technologies from renewable energy policies

Complementary renewable technologies support renewable energy use as they can help balance the intermittency of solar and wind generation. Previous research has shown that environmental policies directly targeting renewable energy can drive innovation in solar PV and wind technology. This study explores the impact of renewable policies on innovation in complementary renewable technology that assists with integration, including combustion with mitigation potential, efficient power transmission or distribution, and enabling technologies. We use negative binomial models and a panel of 25 OECD countries from 1997 to 2015 to evaluate these relationships. We are not able to find evidence that renewable policies incentivize innovation in complementary combustion or transmission and distribution technologies, and only limited evidence that demand-pull instruments are associated with increased innovation in smart grid technology. Technology-push policies, such as public research and development funds for renewable energy, have had limited impact on grid-supporting energy storage innovation. Our findings suggest that policymakers wishing to accelerate these complementary technologies need to go beyond policies targeting renewable energy in order to drive innovation in complementary fields.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Comprehensive techno-economic and life cycle greenhouse gases analysis of green ammonia production utilizing PV and wind energy: Jordan as a case study

Ammonia (NH 3 ) has emerged as a critical player in the global energy transition due to its potential as a low-carbon fuel. Conventional ammonia production methods, primarily through steam methane reforming, are significant contributors to global CO 2 emissions. This study investigates the potential of green ammonia production in Jordan by leveraging the country's abundant solar photovoltaic and wind energy resources. A comprehensive techno-economic and life cycle greenhouse gas analysis was conducted to compare green ammonia production with conventional grey and blue ammonia pathways. Here, the study utilized spatial mapping to assess renewable energy capacity factors across Jordan and optimized the integration of hybrid PV/wind systems with proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolyzers. The results indicate that the levelized cost of green ammonia (LCOA) in Jordan varies between 900 USD/kg NH 3 and 2500 USD/kg NH 3 which is significantly higher than grey ammonia (similar to 360 USD/kg NH 3 ). Nevertheless, the carbon intensity of green ammonia production (between 0.1 kg CO 2eq /kg NH 3 and 0.5 kg CO 2eq /kg NH 3 ) is much lower than the grey ammonia (1.8 kg CO 2eq /kg NH 3 ). Finally, the results indicate that considering future reductions in capital costs and advancement in renewable energy systems and PEM electrolyzers as well as the ability to sell the co-product O 2 can reduce the LCOA by up to 92 % and make it competitive with grey ammonia.

Green Ammonia↗

United States plastics: Large flows, short lifetimes, and negligible recycling

Given increasing concerns for the marine environment and human health, as well as trade restrictions from Asian countries, plastics have become a great challenge for the United States. This study addresses the seven commonly used plastics: low-density polyethylene/linear low-density polyethylene, high-density polyethylene, polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polypropylene, polystyrene, polyvinyl chloride, and other plastics. Material flows of the seven polymers were tracked from production into fabrication, manufacturing, flow into use, waste management, and recycling in the United States in 2015. Low- and high-density polyethylene and polypropylene were found to be the largest in both production and product manufacture. More than 88% of the plastics went into three end-use sectors: Packaging, Consumer and Institutional Products, and Building and Construction. In-use lifetimes across the plastics are generally short. Virgin plastics were mainly exported, while intermediate plastic products were largely imported. The actual end-of-life recycling rate of the plastics as a group was no more than 6.2%, with PET and the polyethylene family the most recycled. Here, the high yearly plastic throughput and low recycling rate pose a serious challenge to the sustainability goals of the United States and is in stark contrast to the vision of a circular economy of plastics.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Quantification and evaluation of plastic waste in the United States

To develop viable solutions for reducing plastic waste, spatially explicit data on the management of these materials are critical. Here we employ statistical and geospatial methods to present a comprehensive assessment of plastic waste in the United States by resin type at the state, county, and local levels. Of the estimated 44 Mt of plastic waste managed in 2019 domestically, approximately 86% was landfilled, 9% was combusted, and 5% was recycled. Landfilled plastics represented significant losses to the country's economy in 2019: an average of US$7.2 billion in market value, about 3.4 EJ as embodied energy (equivalent to 12% of energy consumption by the industrial sector), and 1.5 EJ as an energy source (equivalent to 5.5% and 5% of energy consumption by the industrial and transportation sectors, respectively). Lastly, we posit that substantial amount of landfilled plastic waste could be recovered through advanced sorting, existing, and emerging recycling processes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Cradle-to-grave mercury emissions of light-duty gasoline and electric vehicles in China

China is actively promoting vehicle electrification, which is deemed to help achieve its ambitious carbon neutrality goal by 2060. Here we show that vehicle electrification in China leads to an increase in automotive emissions of mercury, a persistent, global hazardous pollutant regulated in the United Nations’ Minamata Convention. We found that with current technologies, life-cycle mercury emissions of battery electric vehicles of 300 miles of all-electric range are 92% higher than conventional gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles, primarily due to the high mercury emissions from coal-based electricity generation. Notably different from greenhouse gases, mercury emissions are mainly embedded in vehicular material production and vehicle manufacturing, accounting for 50–60% for electric vehicles and ~90% for gasoline vehicles of their life-cycle mercury emissions. Even with a deeply decarbonized power grid, mercury footprints of electric vehicles would still be higher than those of gasoline vehicles, implying a potential increase in automotive mercury emissions in any countries that promote vehicle electrification. Measures including decarbonizing electric grid, implementing mercury-specific emission control through vehicle supply chain, and increasing metal recycling in electric vehicle batteries will help mitigate the unintended mercury emission increase caused by vehicle electrification.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Potential impacts of Fukushima nuclear wastewater discharge on nutrient supply and greenhouse gas emissions of food systems

Seafood plays a critical role in promoting a nutritious and climate-friendly food system but faces challenges from marine contamination that pose food safety risks. Here, to address these challenges, we developed a Marine Pollution-induced Food System Risk Assessment and Response (MP-FSRAR) model to assess the impact of consumer perceptions of marine pollution risk events on nutrient supply and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Applying this model to the proposed Fukushima Nuclear Wastewater Discharge (FNWD) into the Pacific Ocean, we identified the potential variation in nutrient supply and GHG emissions resulting from changes in Chinese consumers' willingness to consume seafood under 12 scenarios. Our analysis revealed nutrient supply gaps in daily protein, minerals, vitamins, and fatty acids, ranging from 1.5 to 2.7 g/person, 2.5–4.5 mg/person, 5.6–10.3 mcg/person, and 0.08–0.14 g/person, respectively. Closing the protein gap in China would require an additional 3.2–15.8 billion kg yr -1 protein-rich foods, including aquatic, livestock, dairy, and pulses. Additional food supply would increase extra GHG emissions by 1–79 billion kg CO 2 e yr -1 , resulting in potential GHG emissions being transmitted to other countries through the trade chain. Furthermore, we found that the livestock-based food substitution pathway had 40 times higher GHG emissions than the plant-based one. Our MP-FSRAR model provides global stakeholders with new perspectives on the potential consequences of consumer perceptions of marine pollution risks and offers valuable insights for developing countermeasures to build a more resilient and low-carbon food system.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Waste management strategies for military-generated waste in the United States

Sustainable and energy efficient municipal solid waste (MSW) management is vital for the health and performance of deployed soldiers, as they play an important role in the safety and dignity of a country. As the United States targets net-zero carbon-free emission goals, research and development are essential to surpassing current practices for management of MSW at military installations, both at home and abroad. To achieve this, it is important to act upon and implement the policies and instructions set by government agencies such as the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Department of Energy (DOE), and the Department of Defense (DoD). Understanding the composition of waste and disposal methods that are in use at military installations is a crucial step to success. Here, the authors show this through analyzed data from trusted sources, such as government agencies, reports, magazines, journals, and other publications on MSW management techniques. By defining these challenges, possible solutions can be better understood for improved management of MSW at military installations in the United States. Finally, an integrated approach with deployable units capable of waste-to-energy technology using waste reduction, diversion, and recycling strategies shows to be an effective pathway for MSW conversion into energy and other useful products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Enhancing supply resilience for critical materials: case study of gallium supply in the United States

Accelerating energy technology development will increase demand for critical raw materials, such as gallium, that enable clean energy technologies. Processing of gallium is concentrated in mainland China (98 % of global production in 2023), resulting in high supply risks for importing countries. To investigate pathways for more resilient supply, we develop a material flow analysis and apply it to the United States, showing the impacts of future domestic primary raw material production and end-of-life (EoL) product recycling on reducing import reliance of raw gallium metal. We complement this analysis with a techno-economic assessment of North American gallium production costs under various demand growth scenarios. Our results indicate that sufficient domestic feedstocks exist to meet U.S. demand under most scenarios by 2035, while EoL recycling can supply up to 50 % under a low-demand growth scenario. Domestic primary production shows significant cost advantages over gallium recycling.

Cost analysis↗

Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions analysis of battery-grade lithium production in Finland

Various countries are undertaking initiatives to domestically produce battery-related critical materials. Within Finland, Keliber Technology Oy is developing capabilities for battery-grade lithium hydroxide monohydrate (LHM) production from spodumene ores. A detailed life-cycle assessment (LCA) of this pathway is conducted to determine its life-cycle GHG impacts using Argonne's R&D GREET (Research and Development Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies) model. The analysis shows life-cycle GHG emissions of similar to 9.2 kg CO 2-eq /kg LHM, dominated by contributions from three energy sources - diesel, natural gas, and electricity - and two material inputs - lime (CaO) and soda ash (Na 2 CO 3 ). Sensitivity analyses highlight the potential to reduce these impacts using low-carbon electricity, sequestration of process CO 2 emissions generated during CaO and Na 2 CO 3 production, and bio-based energy for LHM production (by similar to 15 % each). A comparative analysis shows lower impacts for Keliber's LHM than for existing LHM production from Australian spodumene ores processed in China (by similar to 40 %).

CCS↗

Multi-Game Modeling for Counter-Smuggling

International trade provides an avenue for terrorists to smuggle illicit materials into a target country. Policymakers need models and decision support tools that are both reliable and germane to inform their responses to this. Game theoretic approaches have been used in the analysis of counterterrorism strategies, but the models involved have often been small and abstracted. To address this need, we have developed a multi-game model to account for both security-related and economic aspects of counter-smuggling interdiction efforts. Additionally, we use different games to represent different types of interactions, and these games are then coupled to each other to form an integrated model. In this paper, we demonstrate the model's capabilities on a representative system of ports (both foreign and domestic), trade routes, and commodities. We specifically investigate the impacts of changes in screening policies at domestic ports, detection device capabilities, shipping subsidies, and worldwide corruption levels. In these studies, we find that economic factors play a large role in the interdiction task and provide correspondingly important tools for deterrence.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Recent advances in computational mathematics and applications

We are honored to bring you this special issue dedicated to recent advances in computational mathematics and applications in science and engineering. The papers in this special issue were presented in ”Conference on Computational Mathematics and Applications (CCMA)” held at the University of Nevada Las Vegas (UNLV) during October 25–27, 2019. The conference has attracted about 90 attendees from six countries. The 15 papers in the special issue comprise a diverse collection of theoretical numerical analysis as well as applications in various subjects. Topics cover optimal control of PDEs, discontinuous Galerkin methods, fluid flow in porous media, turbulence flow, static and moving interface problems, complex fluids composed by the mixture of Newtonian fluid and nematic (liquid crystal) flows, modeling of ocean–atmosphere system, image segmentation algorithm, uncertainty quantification problems for turbulence model and Maxwell’s equations, iterative solver for systems resulting from mixed methods, and novel methods for solving systems of nonlinear equations. As the Guest Editors we would like to thank Dr. Leland Jameson at NSF (National Science Foundation) for kindly supporting our conference proposal which made this conference possible. We would also like to thank Darren Sugrue from Elsevier who provided partial support for our conference, and Thennarasu Gunasekaran and his production team from Elsevier who produced this nice special issue. We are grateful to many people (Dr. Zhijian Wu, Lori Ornelas, Elsa Juarez, and many Ph.D. students) at the Department of Mathematical Sciences of UNLV who provided tremendous support for the conference. Finally, we very much appreciate all authors who contributed their precious results to this special issue.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Mapping potentials and bridging regional gaps of renewable resources in China

Reasonable and effective use of renewable resources can reduce dependence on traditional fossil-based energy sources and reduce carbon emissions. This study mapped the spatial potentials of renewable resources (i.e., solar radiation, precipitation, wind, and geothermal resources) in China. The results showed that China's most abundant renewable resources are located in the southwestern regions, which are significantly different from the spatial distribution patterns of population and economic development. Four southwestern provinces (Tibet, Qinghai, Sichuan, and Yunnan) make up only 7% of the national gross domestic product (GDP) and 30% of the national land area but possess 58% of the renewable resources. Furthermore, we found a weak to moderate degree of negative correlation between the emergy density of renewable resources and GDP per capita on the administrative levels of the prefecture-level cities for the whole country and in its eastern, central, and western regions. This means that the socioeconomically underdeveloped Midwest has more abundant renewable resources. A distributed energy-economic system may help to bridge the regional gaps of renewable sources in China. These findings can support policy decisions for the better development and use of renewable resources in China.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Combined Land Use of Solar Infrastructure and Agriculture for Socioeconomic and Environmental Co-Benefits in the Tropics

Solar photovoltaics (PV) are on the rise even in areas of low solar insolation. However, in developing countries with limited capital, land scarcity, or with geographically isolated agrarian communities, large solar infrastructures are often impractical. In these cases, implementation of low-density PV over existing crops may be required to integrate renewable energy services into rural communities. Here, using Indonesia as a model system, we investigated the land use, energy, greenhouse gas emissions, economic feasibility, and the environmental co-benefits associated with off-grid solar PV when combined with high value crop cultivation. The life cycle analyses indicate that small-scale dual land-use systems are economically viable in certain configurations and have the potential to provide several co-benefits including rural electrification, retrofitting diesel electricity generation, and electricity for processing agricultural products locally. A hypothetical full-density off-grid solar PV for a model village in Indonesia shows that electricity output (1907.5 GJ yr-1) is much higher than the total residential consumption (678 GJ yr-1), highlighting the opportunity to downscale the PV infrastructure by half to lower capital cost, to co-locate crops, and to support secondary income generating activities. Economic analysis shows that the 30-year net present cost of electricity from the half-density co-located PV system (12,257 million IDR) is significantly lower than that of the flat cost of diesel required to generate equivalent electricity (14,702 million IDR). Our analysis provides insights for smarter energy planning by optimizing the efficiency of land use and limiting conversion of agricultural and forested areas for energy production.

agrivoltaics↗

A systematic review of building energy sufficiency towards energy and climate targets

Among the sufficiency, efficiency, and renewable frameworks for reducing energy use and energy-related carbon emissions, Building Energy Sufficiency (BES) is gaining attention from policy makers and engineers. Despite the significant role of the building sector in the success of national energy and climate plans, there is a lack of research on the drivers, technologies, and effective policy instruments required to achieve BES in the building operational phase. To fill this gap, this study presents a systematic review of the definition and paradigm of BES and concludes that BES should address both occupant demand and energy or emissions requirements simultaneously. The characteristics of occupant demand in building services are divided into four dimensions: time and space, quality and quantity, control and adjustment, and flexibility. Technical options regarding the building architecture, the envelope system, and the building energy system are reviewed. Finally, policy implications and recommendations are discussed. As a result, the multiple benefits and multidisciplinary nature of BES justify further research and accelerated policy implementation in developed and developing countries.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Structural dynamics of the renewable energy economy: A longitudinal input-output insights for a resilient transition

As countries accelerate their energy transitions, understanding how renewable energy (RE) systems structurally integrate into national economies is essential. This study presents a longitudinal economic input-output (EIO) analysis of the renewable energy sector in South Korea from 2016 to 2022. We develop a novel EIO-based framework that disaggregates the RE sector both by energy source (thermal, hydro, nuclear and renewable) and by industrial function (manufacturing, generation, and services), allowing for a detailed assessment of production dynamics, value-added creation, and import dependency. By quantifying backward and forward linkages and induced economic effects, the analysis reveals persistent structural vulnerabilities in renewable manufacturing and increasing sectoral interdependencies. Results reveal that while the renewable energy sector's production and value-added shares have increased, critical segments remain highly import-dependent, particularly in equipment manufacturing. The analysis highlights systemic gaps in domestic supply chain resilience and offers sector-specific insights for reducing vulnerability and enhancing energy security. Although applied to South Korea as a case study, the proposed framework is designed to be transferable to other national contexts where renewable energy planning requires economic structural insights. The findings offer policy-relevant guidance for enhancing domestic energy resilience and aligning industrial strategy with long-term decarbonization goals.

Economic linkage↗

Climate effects of future aerosol reductions for achieving carbon neutrality in China

To limit the global warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, beyond which the most dangerous impacts of climate change will occur, achieving carbon neutrality by the mid-21st century is essential. As the largest developing country and a significant contributor to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, China has announced its ambitious climate commitment to pass carbon peak before 2030 and to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. Both climate policies and regional clean air actions have been implemented for reductions in fossil fuel emissions, including the emissions of short-lived aerosols and precursors. Furthermore, in the context of pursuing carbon neutrality in China, aerosol reductions due to clean air actions and pollution control policies are very likely to have a great impact on climate. In this study, climate effects of aerosol reductions due to China's clean air actions under localized future emission scenarios are investigated using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). Fully coupled and atmosphere-only experiments in years of carbon peak (2030) and carbon neutrality (2060) are performed with anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursors under “Current-goals” (Current) and “Carbon-Neutral” (Neutral) scenarios from the Dynamic Projection for Emissions in China (DPEC) model that consider socioeconomic development, climate policy, and pollution control actions (Figs. S1–S4 online). In addition, a present-day emissions simulation (PD) is conducted as the reference case (Supplementary materials online). Another sensitivity simulation is also conducted, with black carbon (BC) emissions set to follow the Neutral experiment but other emissions kept at the present-day levels (Neutral_BC), to quantify the relative roles of reducing strongly absorbing BC and other aerosols on future climate towards carbon neutrality. Greenhouse gases concentrations are kept at the 2015 levels in all simulations (Text S1 online).

Yang, Yang↗