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DOE OSTI2023

ESnet Requirements Review Program Through the IRI Lens: A Meta-Analysis of Workflow Patterns Across DOE Office of Science Programs (Final Report)

The Department of Energy (DOE) ensures America’s security and prosperity by addressing its energy, environmental, and nuclear challenges through transformative science and technology solutions. The DOE’s Office of Science (SC) delivers groundbreaking scientific discoveries and major scientific tools that transform our understanding of nature and advance the energy, economic, and national security of the United States. The SC’s programs advance DOE mission science across a wide range of disciplines and have developed the research infrastructure needed to remain at the forefront of scientific discovery. The DOE SC’s world-class research infrastructure — exemplified by the 28 SC scientific user facilities — provides the research community with premier observational, experimental, computational, and network capabilities. Each user facility is designed to provide unique capabilities to advance core DOE mission science for its sponsor SC program and to stimulate a rich discovery and innovation ecosystem. Research communities gather and flourish around each user facility, bringing together diverse perspectives. A hallmark of many facilities is the large population of students, postdoctoral researchers, and early-career scientists who contribute as full-fledged users. These facility staff and users collaborate over years to devise new approaches to utilizing the user facility’s core capabilities. The history of the SC user facilities has many examples of wildly inventive researchers challenging operational orthodoxy to pioneer new vistas of discovery; for example, the use of the synchrotron X-ray light sources for study of proteins and other large biological molecules. This continual reinvention of the practice of science — as users and staff forge novel approaches expressed in research workflows — unlocks new discoveries and propels scientific progress. Within this research ecosystem, the high-performance computing (HPC) and networking user facilities stewarded by SC’s Advanced Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) program play a dynamic cross-cutting role, enabling complex workflows demanding high performance data, networking, and computing solutions. The DOE SC’s three HPC user facilities and the Energy Sciences Network (ESnet) high-performance research network serve all of the SC’s programs as well as the global research community. Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF), the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), and Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) conceive, build, and provide access to a range of supercomputing, advanced computing, and large-scale data-infrastructure platforms, while ESnet interconnects DOE SC research infrastructure and enables seamless exchange of scientific data. All four facilities operate testbeds to expand the frontiers of computing and networking research. Together, the ASCR facilities enterprise seeks to understand and meet the needs and requirements across SC and DOE domain science programs and priority efforts, highlighted by the formal requirements reviews (RRs) methodology. In recent years, the research communities around the SC user facilities have begun experimenting with and demanding solutions integrated with HPC and data infrastructure. This rise of integrated-science approaches is documented in many community and high-level government reports. At the dawn of the era of exascale science and the acceleration of artificial intelligence (AI) innovation, there is a broad need for integrated computational, data, and networking solutions. In response to these drivers, DOE has developed a vision for an Integrated Research Infrastructure (IRI): To empower researchers to meld DOE’s world-class research tools, infrastructure, and user facilities seamlessly and securely in novel ways to radically accelerate discovery and innovation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Computing Annual Report 2025 [Slides]

In Fiscal Year (FY) 2025, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) continued to advance computing as a cornerstone of energy innovation, expanding the Kestrel high-performance computing (HPC) system to 56 peak petaflops. This growth strengthened Kestrel's role as a national asset for applied energy research, enabling larger, more complex simulations and accelerating the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) methods across the laboratory's computing portfolio. In FY 2025, AI was a component of most projects running on Kestrel, underscoring its central role in modern energy science and engineering. Kestrel supported a broad and diverse set of 507 modeling and simulation projects, engaging 855 researchers across the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation (CMEI) portfolio and other offices, as well as partners from industry, academia, and utilities. These efforts span critical materials discovery, energy systems modeling, grid modernization, advanced manufacturing, and other areas essential to strengthening U.S. energy security and competitiveness. Together, these collaborations produced 708 technical outputs, including 293 peer-reviewed publications, reflecting both the depth and impact of the science enabled by NLR's computing capabilities. This year's report highlights the growing importance and benefit of AI throughout NLR's research programs and features work by early career researchers who are helping shape the future of computing-enabled energy innovation. Explore these sections and the many project successes captured in the pages that follow.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum materials for nanosensing and fault-tolerant quantum computing

New concepts of symmetry related to topological order emerged from the discovery of the fractional quantum Hall effect and high-temperature superconductivity in strongly correlated electron systems. This led to the study of quantum materials-- materials exhibiting emergent quantum phenomena with no classical analogues. While these materials have engendered exciting basic materials science and physics, realizing novel devices is a key challenge in the field. The goal of this proposal is to harness the unique properties of topological materials for quantum computing and quantum sensing applications. In this project, we investigated a variety of topological superconducting platforms and identified three technologies that can benefit from their quantum properties: quantum memory, single-photon detection, and non reciprocal electronics. The platforms developed in this work will be broadly useful to National Security and Basic Science.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2014

Computation Annual Report (2013)

Computation provides the intellectual electricity that helps make Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) a thriving and innovative research and development (R&D) institution. Our hardware, software, and discipline experts are integrated into almost every field of research at LLNL. Our in-house programs, software applications, and support initiatives help achieve mission-critical national-security objectives for the U.S. Departments of Energy, Homeland Security, and Defense, as well as other federal and state agencies. We deliver comprehensive support to a wide set of scientific disciplines that include physical sciences (materials modeling, fluid dynamics), biology (genomic sequencing), mathematics (scalable algorithms), and computer sciences (parallel processing, real-time control systems). This year, we have expanded our outreach with high performance computing (HPC) collaborations and made great strides in our capabilities related to mathematical computation, control systems, and computation infrastructure, many of them in concert with partners in industry and academia. The Computation workforce remains highly motivated and passionate about melding computational expertise with cutting-edge science and technology to enable breakthroughs. 2013 has once again proven that Computation provides the foundation and support that are essential for productivity at LLNL. Every scientific discipline and program leverages the tools and expertise provided by our staff. We remain at the forefront of HPC moving towards exascale and have developed the infrastructure and proficiency to make this an achievable goal. Our researchers repeatedly deliver outstanding research, attracting collaborations with the biggest names in academia and industry, while joining forces with other national laboratories to further push the bounds of what is scientifically possible. Computation’s mission is echoed by the President of the United States in his assertion that “our future depends on reaffirming America’s role as the world’s engine of scientific discovery and technological innovation.” Driven by this lofty goal, we employ our state-of-the-art computational capabilities to ensure LLNL’s position as a global science and technology leader.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A New Method for High Resolution Surface Change Detection: Data Collection and Validation of Measurements from UAS at the Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, USA

The use of uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) increases the opportunities for detecting surface changes in remote areas and in challenging terrain. Detecting surface topographic changes offers an important constraint for understanding earthquake damage, groundwater depletion, effects of mining, and other events. For these purposes, changes on the order of 5–10 cm are readily detected, but sometimes it is necessary to detect smaller changes. An example is the surface changes that result from underground explosions, which can be as small as 3 cm. Previous studies that described change detection methodologies were generally not aimed at detecting sub-5-cm changes. Additionally, studies focused on high-fidelity accuracy were either computationally modeled or did not fully provide the necessary examples to highlight the usability of these workflows. Detecting changes at this threshold may be critical in certain applications, such as global security research and monitoring for high-consequence natural hazards, including landslides. Here we provide a detailed description of the methodology we used to detect 2–3 cm changes in an important applied research setting—surface changes related to underground explosions. This methodology improves the accuracy of change detection data collection and analysis through the optimization of pre-field planning, surveying, flight operations, and post-processing the collected data, all of which are critical to obtaining the highest output data resolution possible. We applied this methodology to a field study location, collecting 1.4 Tb of images over the course of 30 flights, and location data for 239 ground control points (GCPs). We independently verified changes with orthoimagery, and found that structure-from-motion, software-reported root mean square errors (RMSEs) for both control and check points underestimated the actual error. We found that 3 cm changes are detectable with this methodology, thereby improving our knowledge of a rock’s response to underground explosions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2017

Risk informed cyber security for nuclear power plants - 342

Nuclear power plants are increasingly adding digital components for plant operation, safety, and security. These digital components fill a gap with legacy equipment where replacement components no longer exist. They also benefit operation of the plant by increasing efficiency in power generation, monitoring of equipment and plant parameters, as well as aiding operator control. However, the addition of digital components and systems also adds cyber risks with previously unanalyzed failure modes and attack vectors are introduced with these new systems. These risks are difficult to identify, analyze, and mitigate due to the increasingly complex nature of the digital components and the integration of these components with additional plant processes and communication networks. The research presented in this paper develops a new method that addresses the cyber risk to inform appropriate levels of protection. EPRI and Sandia are working under a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement to develop an effective method of evaluating the cyber risk in production nuclear power facilities. The Cyber Hazards Analysis Risk Methodology (CHARM) focuses on ensuring adequate controls are in place for appropriate cyber protection of the plant from radiological release or generation risk. Existing plant hazards analyses (e.g., PRA, FTA) do not account for software deficiencies or adversarial intent. This method leverages existing plant analyses and MIT's Systems Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA) to create cyber informed fault trees. These new fault trees will provide the basis for comprehensive cyber risk analysis and help ensure potential gaps in cyber security controls are identified and corrected. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictor-corrector models for lightweight massive machine-type communications in Industry 4.0

Future Industry 4.0 scenarios are characterized by seamless integration between computational and physical processes. To achieve this objective, dense platforms made of small sensing nodes and other resource constraint devices are ubiquitously deployed. All these devices have a limited number of computational resources, just enough to perform the simple operation they are in charge of. The remaining operations are delegated to powerful gateways that manage sensing nodes, but resources are never unlimited, and as more and more devices are deployed on Industry 4.0 platforms, gateways present more problems to handle massive machine-type communications. Although the problems are diverse, those related to security are especially critical. To enable sensing nodes to establish secure communications, several semiconductor companies are currently promoting a new generation of devices based on Physical Unclonable Functions, whose usage grows every year in many real industrial scenarios. Those hardware devices do not consume any computational resource but force the gateway to keep large key-value catalogues for each individual node. In this context, memory usage is not scalable and processing delays increase exponentially with each new node on the platform. In this paper, we address this challenge through predictor-corrector models, representing the key-value catalogues. Models are mathematically complex, but we argue that they consume less computational resources than current approaches. The lightweight models are based on complex functions managed as Laurent series, cubic spline interpolations, and Boolean functions also developed as series. Unknown parameters in these models are predicted, and eventually corrected to calculate the output value for each given key. The initial parameters are based on the Kane Yee formula. An experimental analysis and a performance evaluation are provided in the experimental section, showing that the proposed approach causes a significant reduction in the resource consumption.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Final Report for Industrial Base Cybersecurity Initiative (IBCI) Project (FY2019)

Information security issues impact all manufacturing sectors and are particularly troublesome when designs for advanced weapons systems are lost via attacks that propagate through the relatively unprotected lower tiers of the nation's supply chains. The US Manufacturing Industrial Base (MIB) consists of suppliers and distributors that range in size from large prime contractors with extensive cybersecurity resources to small shops with little or no in-house information technology capabilities. The acquisition and maintenance of the technologies, systems, and financial resources needed to assure secure collaborations can be an overwhelming challenge for many manufacturers yet the cost of poor cybersecurity practices can lead to the compromise of national security information worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The Department of Defense Manufacturing Industrial Base Policy organization and the Department of Energy, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Advanced Manufacturing Office have chartered the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and the Oak Ridge Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) to design, develop, and demonstrate a Manufacturing Threat Evaluation Wargaming System (MTEWS). The MTEWS concept is based on the use of a virtual model of the computer networks and cybersecurity protocols used across the MIB that will be continuously updated to reflect the dynamic threat environment. The MTEWS cyber-physical test range will demonstrate a prototype wargaming system that analyzes the impact of new and existing cybersecurity threats while also providing the information needed to sustain the integrity of the MIB supply chains. A long-term goal is the establishment of an enduring national manufacturing operations center that proactively responds to the continuously changing attacks that threaten the MIB and US national security. LANL and Y-12 have formed an Industrial Base Cybersecurity Initiative Team (IBCI), consisting of partners from the public, private and academic sectors, that is developing the MTEWS. To date, most of the project tasks have been centered on the technologies required to create a representative model of the MIB because this is a foundational element for the entire project. Modeling activities at the University of North Carolina at Charlotte (UNC Charlotte) have demonstrated a VMware-based prototype system that can accommodate a network model with up to 350 nodes and includes features such as the option to incorporate network scanning information when building the model and the ability to down select the elements of duplicative networks to a statistically significant subset that avoids redundantly duplicating network configurations. Broad Ordering Agreements have been established with UNC Charlotte and the University of West Florida (UWF) that support a variety of cybersecurity for manufacturing tasks and wide-spread endorsement has been received from government, industry and academia sectors concerning the IBCI goals and technical direction.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2017

Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) Tools for Optimizing Strength of Forged Al-Li Turbine Blades for Aircraft Engines Final Report CRADA No. TC02238.0

This was a collaborative effort between Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC as manager and operator of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and LIFT Consortium to develop, implement and validate a defect physics-based model to predict mechanical properties of forged Al-Li alloys. LLNL task was to conduct dislocation dynamics simulations of the interaction of dislocations with the primary precipitates providing strength of proposed Al-Li alloys.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Selecting RMF Controls for National Security Systems

In 2014, the United States Department of Defense started transitioning the way it performs risk management and accreditation of information systems to a process entitled Risk Management Framework for DoD Information Technology or RMF for DoD IT. There are many more security and privacy controls (and control enhancements) from which to select in RMF, than there were in the previous Information Assurance process. This report is an attempt to clarify the way security controls and enhancements are selected. After a brief overview and comparison of RMF for DoD IT with the previously used process, this report looks at the determination of systems as National Security Systems (NSS). Once deemed to be an NSS, this report addresses the categorization of the information system with respect to impact levels of the various security objectives and the selection of an initial baseline of controls. Next, the report describes tailoring the controls through the use of overlays and scoping considerations. Finally, the report discusses organization-defined values for tuning the security controls to the needs of the information system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing Plug Load Energy Use and Savings Potential in Army Buildings

The Assistant Secretary of the Army (Installations, Energy and Environment) tasked the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to examine plug loads in typical Army buildings. Plug loads (also known as miscellaneous electric loads (MELs)) represent the electricity used by appliances and devices that are plugged in or hardwired and serve functions outside of a building’s core end uses. Common plug loads include computers, printers, copiers, networking devices, refrigerators, and vending machines. They also include personal electronic devices such as televisions, smart phones, tablets, and gaming systems. Examples of hardwired MELs include elevators, air compressors, and fire and security systems. The findings from this study confirm that significant energy is consumed within Army buildings by plug load devices and hardwired MEL equipment. A number of opportunities are identified for reducing unnecessary energy use that could save the Army over $5 million per year when broadly applied. Army regulations clearly spell out expectations for the purchase and operation of information technology equipment (computers, laptops, monitors, printers, and multi-function devices). However, the policies regarding the shutdown or activation of sleep and other lower power modes after 30 minutes of inactivity (15 minutes for monitors) do not appear to be consistently followed. There are many effective approaches and pathways for impacting change as it relates to improving awareness, implementing measures, and adjusting behaviors to identify and reduce plug load energy use. The Army should prioritize and consider deploying all of these to better understand and manage plug load equipment to save energy and enhance resilience across their facilities. Engaging the building occupants who use these devices daily via outreach and education should be a strong component of the strategy. The focus should be on reducing waste without sacrificing productivity or the benefits that many of these devices provide. Continued evaluation of plug loads beyond that performed here is important to gather lessons from additional building and equipment types, and to stay aware of evolving device technology and management options. This will highlight additional needs for policies, best practices, control technologies, and education of personnel to achieve real reductions in energy waste from plug load equipment. It is recommended that this study may serve as the foundation for a broader and sustained focus on plug loads and MELs, towards simultaneously enhancing the productivity, readiness, and resilience of the Army while reducing energy use and demand, and freeing up resources to better support the mission.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Are System Baselines within OT Environments Feasible?

Critical infrastructure stakeholders need to baseline their systems to understand expected protocol communications.Baseline behaviors may vary based on operational context.Expected operations during a maintenance window, for example, may be different from normal operations.Furthermore, constructing system baselines for Industrial Control Systems (ICS) is difficult and time-consuming.ICS processes generate artifacts expressed across heterogeneous data sources such as network and device logs. There needs to be a corpus of data in order to develop and compare methods that evaluate the feasibility, performance, and generality of approaches to construct baselines for ICS events. Standalone repositories of network packet captures are insufficient to develop methods to classify or recognize operational events expressed across multiple data sources. Moreover, static data corpora do not enable researchers to compare the impact of changing the underlying system for which a baseline is being constructed and this limits the ability to evaluate the performance of system baselines given system changes (e.g. patches, configuration, maintenance events). In order to address these limitations within the community, this talk intends to promote discussion about the state of the practice of constructing baselines. In this manner, we can continue to understand requirements within industry that are not being met by current approaches to baseline construction. This talk builds on two previous talks on the topic of system baselines for OT environments. First, Weaver co-presented at the RSA Conference ICS Sandbox with Dan Gunter. The talk confirmed the need within industry to construct baselines across multiple types of data sources relative to the semantics of specific business processes. Second, Weaver presented at IEEE Security and Privacy Workshop on Language-Theoretic Security.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2014

A Framework for Lattice QCD Calculations on GPUs

Efficient calculation of the greatest common divisor (GCD) for big integers each whose number of bits is greater than or equal to 1024 has drawn a considerable amount of attention because it can be used to detect a weakness of the RSA security infrastructure. This paper presents a parallel binary GCD algorithm and its implementation for big integers on the Intel Xeon Phi coprocessor. This algorithm is capable of computing GCDs efficiently on many pairs of big integers in parallel by utilizing all cores on a Xeon Phi coprocessor as well as taking advantage of all vector processing units of the coprocessor to speed up critical integer operations within the algorithm. Using 240 threads on a Xeon Phi coprocessor to carry out GCD calculations for a large amount of 2048-bit integers, the implementation achieves the speedup of 30 times over a sequential binary GCD algorithm implementation on a single CPU core, and it delivers twice amount of performance in comparison to the same sequential binary GCD implementation running on 240 threads of the Xeon Phi.

Winter, F. T.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Research Directions on AI for Science, Energy, and Security: Report on Summer 2022 Workshops

Over the past decade, fundamental changes in artificial intelligence (AI)—from foundational to applied—have delivered dramatic insights across a wide breadth of U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) mission space. AI is helping to augment and improve scientific and engineering workflows (e.g., for control, design, and dramatic performance gains through surrogate models) in national security, the Office of Science, and DOE’s applied energy programs. The progress and potential for AI in DOE science was captured in the 2020 “AI for Science” report from the DOE laboratory community in collaboration with academia and industry. Specific scientific areas ready to further leverage the power of AI ranged from the scale and performance of computational models to data analysis to creating new classes of observations using computer vision. Since that report, the scale and scope of scientific AI have accelerated, revealing new, emergent properties that yield insights that go beyond enabling opportunities to being potentially transformative in the way that scientific problems are posed and solved. Thus, under the guidance of both the Office of Science (SC) and the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), the DOE national laboratories organized a series of workshops in 2022 to gather input on new and rapidly emerging opportunities and challenges of scientific AI. This 2023 report is a synthesis of those workshops. The scientific community believes AI can have a foundational impact on a broad range of DOE missions, including science, energy, and national security. Further, DOE has unique capabilities that enable the community to drive progress in scientific use of AI, building on long-standing DOE strengths and investments in computation, data, and communications infrastructure, spanning the Energy Sciences Network (ESnet), the Exascale Computing Project (ECP), and integrative programs such as the NNSA Office of Defense Programs Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) and the SC Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) programs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Anonymization of Network Traces Data through Condensation-based Differential Privacy

Network traces are considered a primary source of information to researchers, who use them to investigate research problems such as identifying user behavior, analyzing network hierarchy, maintaining network security, classifying packet flows, and much more. However, most organizations are reluctant to share their data with a third party or the public due to privacy concerns. Therefore, data anonymization prior to sharing becomes a convenient solution to both organizations and researchers. Although several anonymization algorithms are available, few of them allow sufficient privacy (organization need), acceptable data utility (researcher need), and efficient data analysis at the same time. This article introduces a condensation-based differential privacy anonymization approach that achieves an improved tradeoff between privacy and utility compared to existing techniques and produces anonymized network trace data that can be shared publicly without lowering its utility value. Our solution also does not incur extra computation overhead for the data analyzer. A prototype system has been implemented, and experiments have shown that the proposed approach preserves privacy and allows data analysis without revealing the original data even when injection attacks are launched against it. When anonymized datasets are given as input to graph-based intrusion detection techniques, they yield almost identical intrusion detection rates as the original datasets with only a negligible impact.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Toward Molecular Catalysts by Computer

Rational design of molecular catalysts requires a systematic approach to designing ligands with specific functionality and precisely tailored electronic and steric properties. It then becomes possible to devise computer protocols to predict accurately the required properties and ultimately to design catalysts by computer. In this account we first review how thermodynamic properties such as oxidation-reduction potentials (E0), acidities (pKa), and hydride donor abilities (ΔGH-) form the basis for a systematic design of molecular catalysts for reactions that are critical for a secure energy future (hydrogen evolution and oxidation, oxygen and nitrogen reduction, and carbon dioxide reduction). We highlight how density functional theory allows us to determine and predict these properties within “chemical” accuracy (~ 0.06 eV for redox potentials, ~ 1 pKa unit for pKa values, and ~ 1.5 kcal/mol for hydricities). These quantities determine free energy maps and profiles associated with catalytic cycles, i.e. the relative energies of intermediates, and help us distinguish between desirable and high-energy pathways and mechanisms. Good catalysts have flat profiles that avoid high activation barriers due to low and high energy intermediates. We illustrate how the criterion of a flat energy profile lends itself to the prediction of design points by computer for optimum catalysts. This research was carried out in the Center for Molecular Electro-catalysis, an Energy Frontier Research Center funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is operated for the DOE by Battelle.

acidity↗
DOE OSTI2020

Co-op at Sandia National Laboratories (July - December 2019, Final Report)

This co-op was performed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) within the Weapon Surety Engineering 11 Department (9435), which is a customer-focused organization that provides engineering and system analysis expertise to ensure a safe deterrent throughout the entire weapon lifecycle. Engineers in 9435 develop a deep knowledge in both component and system function to support rigorous evaluation and mitigation of potential failure modes. They operate across multiple engineering disciplines (mechanical, electrical, computer, materials and systems engineering) with opportunities to develop crossdisciplinary capability. The team supports a variety of stockpile systems and is part of the product teams during development, design and production, as well as advanced concept and exploratory efforts. 9435 engineers use their extensive component and system knowledge, as well as experimental data and modeling, to ensure products function as intended with assured safety. Members of the department learn the function of multiple components, how those components integrate within the system and apply surety principles and processes to ensure a safe, secure, reliable, and effective U.S. nuclear deterrent.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

CONUS-wide Projected Flood Frequency and Uncertainty Estimates, Version 1.0

This dataset presents a large-ensemble of CONUS-wide projected flood frequency and uncertainty estimates across ~2.7 million NHDPlusV2 river reaches over the CONUS. The framework producing this dataset leverages a multi-model, uncertainty-aware modeling framework that allows evaluating shifts in flood frequences at the stream reach level across the CONUS. CONUS-wide ensemble streamflow projections generated from hydrologic simulations driven by downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) outputs are used to derive these flood frequency and uncertainty estimates over the period 1980 - 2099. A spatially consistent regional L-moment algorithm is applied across clusters defined by the US Hydrologic Unit Code Subregions (HUC4s and HUC8s) and NHDPlusV2 stream orders to estimate flood frequencies. The dataset also includes at-site based flood estimates that allow for the comparison between local and regional approach-based estimates, assess projected changes, and characterize their uncertainties. For more reliable estimation of rare flood frequencies such as 500 and 1000-year return periods, super-ensemble based estimates are also included in the dataset. This dataset is derived to support the "Impact-Informed Dam Safety Risk Assessment for Securing Hydropower Assests" project for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hydropower and Hydrokinetic Office (H2O). For further details, refer to Kao et al. (2022), Ghimire et al. (2023), Ghimire et al. (2025), and Hosking and Wallis (1997).

Ghimire, Ganesh [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000242843941)↗